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706—Chapter 23. System Estimation

both the coefficients and weighting matrix converge. This is the iteration method employed in EViews prior to version 4.

Iterate Weights and Coefs—Sequential updating repeats the default method of updating weights and then iterating coefficients to convergence until both the coefficients and the weighting matrix converge.

Note that all four of the estimation techniques yield results that are asymptotically efficient. For linear models, the two Iterate Weights and Coefs options are equivalent, and the two One-Step Weighting Matrix options are equivalent, since obtaining coefficient estimates does not require iteration.

In addition, the Iteration Options tab allows you to set a number of options for estimation, including convergence criterion, maximum number of iterations, and derivative calculation settings. See “Setting Estimation Options” on page 951 for related discussion.

Estimation Output

The system estimation output contains parameter estimates, standard errors, and t-statis- tics for each of the coefficients in the system. Additionally, EViews reports the determinant of the residual covariance matrix, and, for FIML estimates, the maximized likelihood value.

In addition, EViews reports a set of summary statistics for each equation. The R2 statistic, Durbin-Watson statistic, standard error of the regression, sum-of-squared residuals, etc., are computed for each equation using the standard definitions, based on the residuals from the system estimation procedure.

You may access most of these results using regression statistics functions. See Chapter 15, page 454 for a discussion of the use of these functions, and Appendix A, “Object, View and Procedure Reference”, on page 153 of the Command and Programming Reference for a full listing of the available functions for systems.

Working With Systems

After obtaining estimates, the system object provides a number of tools for examining the equation results, and performing inference and specification testing.

System Views

Some of the system views are familiar from the discussion in previous chapters:

You can examine the estimated covariance matrix by selecting the Coefficient Covariance Matrix view.

Working With Systems—707

Wald Coefficient Tests… performs hypothesis tests on the coefficients. These views are discussed in greater depth in “Wald Test (Coefficient Restrictions)” on page 572.

The Estimation Output view displays the coefficient estimates and summary statistics for the system. You may also access this view by pressing Stats on the system toolbar.

Other views are very familiar, but differ slightly in name or output, from their single equation counterparts:

System Specification displays the specification window for the system. The specification window may also be displayed by pressing Spec on the toolbar.

Residual Graphs displays a separate graph of the residuals from each equation in the system.

Endogenous Table presents a spreadsheet view of the endogenous variables in the system.

Endogenous Graph displays graphs of each of the endogenous variables.

The last two views are specific to systems:

Residual Correlation Matrix computes the contemporaneous correlation matrix for the residuals of each equation.

Residual Covariance Matrix computes the contemporaneous covariance matrix for the residuals. See also the function @residcova in Appendix A, “Object, View and Procedure Reference”, on page 184 of the Command and Programming Reference.

System Procs

One notable difference between systems and single equation objects is that there is no forecast procedure for systems. To forecast or perform simulation using an estimated system, you must use a model object.

EViews provides you with a simple method of incorporating the results of a system into a model. If you select Proc/Make Model, EViews will open an untitled model object containing the estimated system. This model can be used for forecasting and simulation. An alternative approach, creating the model and including the system object by name, is described in “Building a Model” on page 794.

There are other procedures for working with the system:

Estimate… opens the dialog for estimating the system of equations. It may also be accessed by pressing Estimate on the system toolbar.

708—Chapter 23. System Estimation

Make Residuals creates a number of series containing the residuals for each equation in the system. The residuals will be given the next unused name of the form RESID01, RESID02, etc., in the order that the equations are specified in the system.

Make Endogenous Group creates an untitled group object containing the endogenous variables.

Example

As an illustration of the process of estimating a system of equations in EViews, we estimate a translog cost function using data from Berndt and Wood (1975) as tabulated in Greene (1997). The translog cost function has four factors with three equations of the form:

c

 

 

= β

 

+ δ

 

log

 

pK

+ δ

 

 

log

 

pL

+ δ

 

 

 

 

pE

+

 

 

 

 

 

 

------

 

 

------

 

 

log ------

 

 

K

K

KK

p

 

KL

 

p

 

 

 

KE

 

p

 

 

 

K

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

M

 

 

 

 

 

 

M

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

M

 

 

 

 

c

 

= β

 

+ δ

 

log

 

pK

+ δ

 

log

 

pL

 

+ δ

 

 

log

 

pE

 

+

 

 

(23.3)

 

 

 

------

 

------

 

 

------

 

 

 

 

L

 

L

 

LK

 

p

 

LL

 

 

p

 

 

 

LE

 

 

p

 

 

 

L

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

M

 

 

 

 

 

 

M

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

M

 

 

 

 

c

 

 

= β

 

+ δ

 

log

 

pK

+ δ

 

log

 

pL

 

+ δ

 

 

log

 

pE

+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

------

 

------

 

 

------

 

 

 

 

E

 

E

 

EK

 

p

 

EL

 

 

p

 

 

EE

 

 

p

 

 

E

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

M

 

 

 

 

 

 

M

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

M

 

 

 

 

where ci and pi are the cost share and price of factor i , respectively. β and δ are the parameters to be estimated. Note that there are cross equation coefficient restrictions that ensure symmetry of the cross partial derivatives.

We first estimate this system without imposing the cross equation restrictions and test whether the symmetry restrictions hold. Create a system by clicking Object/New Object.../System in the main toolbar or type system in the command window. Press the Name button and type in the name “SYS_UR” to name the system.

Next, type in the system window and specify the system as:

We estimate this model by full information maximum likelihood (FIML). FIML is invariant to the equation that is dropped. Press the Estimate button and choose Full Information Maximum Likelihood. EViews presents the estimated coefficients and regression statistics for each equation. The top portion of the output describes the coefficient estimates:

Working With Systems—709

System: SYS_UR

 

 

 

Estimation Method: Full Information Maximum Likelihood (Marquardt)

 

Date: 01/16/04

Time: 10:15

 

 

 

Sample: 1947 1971

 

 

 

Included observations: 25

 

 

 

Total system (balanced) observations 75

 

 

 

Convergence achieved after 125 iterations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Coefficient

Std. Error

z-Statistic

Prob.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

C(1)

0.054983

0.009352

5.879263

0.0000

C(2)

0.035131

0.035676

0.984709

0.3248

C(3)

0.004134

0.025614

0.161417

0.8718

C(4)

0.023631

0.084439

0.279858

0.7796

C(5)

0.250180

0.012017

20.81915

0.0000

C(6)

0.014758

0.024772

0.595756

0.5513

C(7)

0.083908

0.032184

2.607154

0.0091

C(8)

0.056410

0.096008

0.587548

0.5568

C(9)

0.043257

0.007981

5.420390

0.0000

C(10)

-0.007707

0.012518

-0.615711

0.5381

C(11)

-0.002184

0.020121

-0.108520

0.9136

C(12)

0.035623

0.061801

0.576416

0.5643

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Log Likelihood

 

349.0326

 

 

Determinant residual covariance

1.50E-16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

while the bottom describes equation specific statistics.

To test the symmetry restrictions, select View/Wald Coefficient Tests…, fill in the dialog:

and click OK. The result:

710—Chapter 23. System Estimation

Wald Test:

System: SYS_UR

Test Statistic

Value

df

Probability

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chi-square

0.418853

3

0.9363

 

 

 

 

 

 

Null Hypothesis Summary:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Normalized Restriction (= 0)

Value

Std. Err.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

C(3)

- C(6)

 

-0.010623

0.039839

C(4)

- C(10)

 

0.031338

0.077778

C(8)

- C(11)

 

0.058593

0.090751

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Restrictions are linear in coefficients.

fails to reject the symmetry restrictions. To estimate the system imposing the symmetry restrictions, copy the object using Object/Copy Object, click View/System Specification and modify the system.

We have named the system SYS_TLOG. Note that to impose symmetry in the translog specification, we have restricted the coefficients on the cross-price terms to be the same (we have also renumbered the 9 remaining coefficients so that they are consecutive). The restrictions are imposed by using the same coefficients in each equation. For example, the coefficient

on the log(P_L/P_M) term in the C_K equation, C(3), is the same as the coefficient on the log(P_K/P_M) term in the C_L equation.

To estimate this model using FIML, click Estimate and choose Full Information Maximum Likelihood. The top part of the equation describes the estimation specification, and provides coefficient and standard error estimates, t-statistics, p-values, and summary statistics:

Working With Systems—711

System: SYS_TLOG

Estimation Method: Full Information Maximum Likelihood (Marquardt)

Date: 01/16/04 Time: 10:21

Sample: 1947 1971

Included observations: 25

Total system (balanced) observations 75

Convergence achieved after 57 iterations

 

Coefficient

Std. Error

z-Statistic

Prob.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

C(1)

0.057022

0.003306

17.24910

0.0000

C(2)

0.029742

0.012583

2.363680

0.0181

C(3)

-0.000369

0.011205

-0.032967

0.9737

C(4)

-0.010228

0.006027

-1.697171

0.0897

C(5)

0.253398

0.005050

50.17708

0.0000

C(6)

0.075427

0.015483

4.871573

0.0000

C(7)

-0.004414

0.009141

-0.482901

0.6292

C(8)

0.044286

0.003349

13.22343

0.0000

C(9)

0.018767

0.014894

1.260006

0.2077

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Log Likelihood

 

344.5916

 

 

Determinant residual covariance

2.14E-16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The log likelihood value reported at the bottom of the first part of the table may be used to construct likelihood ratio tests.

Since maximum likelihood assumes the errors are multivariate normal, we may wish to test whether the residuals are normally distributed. Click Proc/Make Residuals and EViews opens an untitled group window containing the residuals of each equation in the system. Then to compute descriptive statistics for each residual in the group, select View/ Descriptive Stats from the group window toolbar.

The Jarque-Bera statistic rejects the hypothesis of normal distribution for

the second equation but not for the other equations.

The estimated coefficients of the translog cost function may be used to construct estimates of the elasticity of substitution between factors of production. For example, the elasticity of

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