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Metals and Mining - cheap valuations 010414_watermark.pdf

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Commodity price and exchange rate forecasts

Figure 108 sets out our average commodity price and exchange rate forecasts per calendar year.

Renaissance Capital

1 April 2019

Metals & Mining

Figure 108: Average commodity prices and exchange rates*

Average per calendar year	2016	2017	2018	2019E	2020E	2021E	2022E	2023E	LT real
Precious commodities
Gold, $/oz	1,248	1,258	1,269	1,350	1,337	1,311	1,337	1,364	1,250
Silver, $/oz	17	17	16	17	18	19	19	20	18
Platinum, $/oz	988	950	880	843	900	966	1,071	1,176	1,100
Palladium, $/oz	614	871	1,030	1,558	1,700	1,576	1,378	1,179	1,000
Rhodium, $/oz	694	1,108	2,218	3,135	4,250	3,825	3,145	2,465	2,000
3PGM basket (57% Pt, 36% Pd, 7% Rh), $/oz	833	933	1,028	1,261	1,423	1,386	1,326	1,267	1,127
Rough diamond index, $/ct	197	198	202	198	208	215	219	224	205
Base metals
Aluminium, $/t	1,604	1,968	2,110	1,950	2,200	2,307	2,353	2,401	2,200
Bauxite, $/t	40	43	42	41	49	52	53	54	50
Copper, $/t	4,867	6,170	6,532	6,400	6,500	7,025	7,167	7,311	6,700
Copper, USc/lb	221	280	296	290	295	319	325	332	304
Nickel, $/t	9,599	10,404	13,130	12,762	14,805	15,728	16,045	16,368	15,000
Nickel, USc/lb	435	472	596	579	672	713	728	742	680
Zinc, $/t	2,091	2,891	2,923	2,724	2,860	2,936	2,995	3,055	2,800
Zinc, USc/lb	95	131	133	124	130	133	136	139	127
Lead, $/t	1,867	2,314	2,241	2,151	2,574	2,642	2,696	2,750	2,520
Cobalt (99.8%), $/lb	12	25	33	18	24	26	27	27	25
Steelmaking materials
Iron ore fines (62% Fe, CIF China), $/t	58	71	66	88	85	78	70	71	65
Iron ore fines (58% Fe, CIF China), $/t	48	52	45	69	60	60	55	55	51
Iron ore lump premium (62% Fe), $/t	10	15	20	21	15	14	14	14	13
Freight charges, $/t
- Australia to China	4.5	6.7	7.6	6.4	9.0	7.7	7.9	8.1	7.4
- Brazil to China	9.1	14.8	18.4	17.3	22.5	18.7	19.1	19.4	17.8
- South Africa to China	6.8	11.2	13.8	11.4	15.9	13.8	14.1	14.4	13.2
Hard coking coal - spot, $/t	144	188	206	187	170	165	168	164	150
Manganese ore (44%, CIF China), $/mtu	4.30	6.00	7.11	5.60	5.33	5.45	5.56	5.67	5.20
Ferrochrome (EU), $/lb	1.0	1.5	1.4	1.2	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.4	1.3
Energy
Brent crude oil, $/bl	45	55	72	65	60	63	64	65	60
WTI oil, $/bl	43	51	65	60	57	60	61	62	57
Henry Hub (US) gas, $/MMBtu	2.5	3.0	3.2	3.3	3.5	4.2	4.3	4.4	4
Thermal coal (FOB Richard's Bay), $/t	64	85	98	85	84	84	86	87	80
Uranium, $/lb	26	22	25	32	43	47	48	49	45
Chemicals
Ethane (US), $/t	146	184	244	265	375	419	428	436	400
Ethylene (US), $/t	585	613	402	489	815	944	963	982	900
Fertilisers
MOP Potash Soluble FOB Saskatchewan, $/t	228	230	261	294	285	283	289	295	270
Baltic sea Urea granular, $/t	202	220	251	258	267	273	278	284	260
Baltic DAP, $/t	357	358	421	428	428	430	439	447	410
Black sea 16-16-16, $/t	324	321	318	338	347	353	360	367	337
Currency exchange rates
ZAR/$	14.70	13.31	13.24	14.28	14.40	14.49	14.79	15.08	13.30
$/AUD	0.74	0.77	0.75	0.73	0.78	0.80	0.80	0.80	0.80
$/EUR	1.11	1.13	1.18	1.16	1.21	1.22	1.22	1.22	1.20
CLP/$	676	649	642	666	668	673	687	701	630
BRL/$	3.49	3.19	3.65	3.68	3.47	3.42	3.49	3.56	3.20
COP/$	3,053	2,952	2,956	3,097	3,005	3,015	3,138	3,265	2,800
RUB/$	67	58	63	67	69	68	66	66	58
Inflation
US consumer price index	240	245	251	255	260	265	270	276
US inflation	1.3%	2.1%	2.5%	1.4%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%

*The above amounts represent the average per calendar year.

Source: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates

estimates Capital Renaissance Bloomberg, Source:

March),(26Spot		0	2	6 4					8			10		12	14			16			(44%,oreManganese
March),(26Spot		0	2						8			10		12	14						(44%,oreManganese
	2002			2.0
	2003 (-0%)			2.0
	2004 (-0%)			2.0
	2005 (+67%)			3.3
	2006 (-22%)			2.6
	2007 (+36%)					3.5
	2008 (+299%)																	14.1
	2009 (-61%)							5.4													CIF
6	2010 (+42%)									7.7											CIF
	2011 (-21%)								6.1												China),
	2014 (-17%)							4.5													China),
	2012 (-19%)							4.9
	2013 (+10%)							5.4
	2015 (-31%)			3.1																	$/mtu
	2016 (+38%)					4.3															$/mtu
	2017 (+40%)								6.0
	2018 (+18%)									7.1
	Spot								6.5
2019E (16% upside)								5.6
2020E (21% upside)								5.3
2021E (19% upside)								5.5
2022E (16% upside)								5.6
2023E (14% upside)									5.7
LT real (25% upside)								5.2
Spot			5 0			10		15		30 25 20						35			40		$/ozSilver,
Spot	2004 (+36%)		5 0			7		15		30 25 20						35			40		$/ozSilver,
	2002				5
	2003 (+8%)				5
(26	2005 (+13%)						8
(26	2006 (+54%)								12
March),	2006 (+54%)								12
March),	2009 (-2%)									15
	2007 (+16%)								14
	2008 (+11%)									15
4.15	2010 (+40%)											21
4.15	2011 (+74%)																		36
	2012 (-12%)																32
	2013 (-26%)													23
	2014 (-21%)											19
	2015 (-15%)									16
	2016 (+9%)									17
	2017 (-0%)									17
	2018 (-8%)									16
		Spot								15
2019E (8% downside)										17
2020E (14% downside)												18
2021E (18% downside)												19
2022E (20% downside)												19
2023E (21% downside)												20
LT real (14% downside)												18
Spot			0	200		400		600		800		1,000		1,200	1,400	1,600			1,800		Gold,
Spot	2003 (+17%)							364													$/oz
		2002					310
(26	2004 (+13%)							409
(26	2005 (+9%)								445
March),	2006 (+36%)										604
March),	2007 (+15%)										697
	2008 (+25%)												872
1,316	2009 (+12%)													973						1,571
1,316	2011 (+28%)																			1,571
	2010 (+26%)														1,225
	2012	(+6%)																		1,668
	2013 (-15%)															1,413
	2014 (-10%)														1,266
	2015 (-8%)													1,160
	2016 (+8%)														1,248
	2017 (+1%)														1,258
	2018 (+1%)														1,269
		Spot													1,316
2019E (3% downside)																1,350
2020E (2% downside)															1,337
	2021E (0% upside)														1,311
2022E (2% downside)															1,337
2023E (4% downside)																1,364
LT real (5% upside)															1,250

Spot			2002
(26
	2003 (+14%)
March),	2004 (+33%)
	2007 (+10%)
	2005 (+45%)
	2006 (+20%)
68	2008 (+35%)
	2009 (-37%)
	2010 (+29%)
	2011 (+39%)
		2012 (+1%)
		2013 (-3%)
		2014 (-8%)
	2015 (-46%)
	2016 (-16%)
	2017 (+21%)
	2018 (+31%)
			Spot
2019E (5% upside)
2020E (14% upside)
2021E (8% upside)
2022E (6% upside)
2023E (4% upside)
LT real (14% upside)
Spot			2003
(26	2004 (+52%)
	2005 (-15%)
March),
	2008 (+93%)
	2006 (+11%)
	2007		(+24%)
74	2009 (-46%)
	2010 (+42%)

	2011 (+28%)
	2012 (-21%)
	2013		(-13%)
	2014 (-11%)
	2015 (-22%)
	2016 (+14%)
	2017 (+31%)
	2018 (+16%)
			Spot
2019E (13% downside)
2020E (11% downside)
2021E (11% downside)
2022E (13% downside)
2023E (15% downside)
LT real (7% downside)
			0
Spot		2002

(26	2003 (-3%)
	2004 (+16%)
March),
	2005 (+99%)
	2006 (+9%)
	2007 (-13%)
214	2008	(+147%)
	2009 (-32%)
	2010 (+11%)
	2011 (+52%)
	2012 (-27%)
	2013 (-25%)
	2014 (-21%)
	2015 (-25%)
	2016 (+52%)
	2017 (+30%)
	2018 (+10%)
			Spot
2019E (15% upside)
2020E (26% upside)
2021E (30% upside)
2022E (27% upside)
2023E (31% upside)
LT real (43% upside)

0		20			40		60				80			100		Brent 120
					25													, oil
					2838													, oil
								55										$/bbl
											66
												73			98
											62				98
											62		80				111
																	111
																	112
																	109
								54							100
								54
							4555					72
											68
											65
											60
											63
											64
											65
											60
				40		60						100		120		140
0	20				35			80				100		120				Thermal
			4				54											$/tcoal,
							5163											$/tcoal,
							45
								65								120
								65					92
													92			118
													93			118
												81	93
								57			72
								64				85		98
											7485			98


												84
												84
												86
												87
												80
		100			150			200				250		300		350
50		8			150			200				250		300				Hard
		54																coking
		47
					108													coal,
					118													coal,
					103									253
										172				253				$/t
										172
											191			289
														289
								159				211
					95	126
							144 188
											206
												214
												214
											187
										170
									165
									168
								164
							150

Spot	2002
(26	2002
March),	2003 (+42%)
March),	2006 (+64%)
	2004 (+44%)
	2005 (+7%)
12,995	2007 (+54%)
12,995	2008 (-43%)
	2009 (-31%)
	2010 (+49%)
	2011 (+5%)
	2012 (-23%)
	2013 (-14%)
	2014 (+12%)
	2015 (-30%)
	2016 (-19%)
	2017 (+8%)
	2018 (+26%)
	Spot
	2019E (2% upside)
2020E (12% downside)
2021E (17% downside)
2022E (19% downside)
2023E (21% downside)
LT real (13% downside)
Spot	2002 500
(26	2003 (+6%)
(26	2004 (+27%)
March),	2004 (+27%)
March),	2007 (-1%)
	2005 (+32%)
	2006 (+137%)
2,920	2008 (-42%)
2,920	2010 (+31%)
	2009 (-12%)
	2011 (+1%)
	2012 (-11%)
	2013 (-2%)
	2014 (+13%)
	2015 (-11%)
	2016 (+8%)
	2017 (+38%)
	2018 (+1%)
	Spot
2019E (7% upside)
2020E (2% upside)
2021E (1% downside)
2022E	(3% downside)
2023E (4% downside)
LT real (4% upside)
Spot	400
(26	2002
(26	2003 (+28%)
March),	2004 (+22%)
March),	2005 (+6%)
	2006 (+27%)
863	2007 (+14%)
863	2008 (+21%)
	2009 (-23%)
	2010 (+34%)
	2011 (+7%)
	2012 (-10%)
	2013 (-4%)
	2014 (-7%)
	2015 (-24%)
	2016 (-6%)
	2017 (-4%)
	2018 (-7%)
	Spot
2019E (2% upside)
2020E (4% downside)
2021E (11% downside)
2022E (19% downside)
2023E (27% downside)
LT real (22% downside)

5,000		10,000	15,000		20,000		25,000	30,000		35,000		40,000	Nickel,
		6,778											$/t
	4
	09,635
				13,834
					14,741 24,249							37,229
							21,115
					14,653
							21,833
							22,842
						17,525
					15,033
						16,868
				11,864
		9,599
			10,404
				13,130
				12,995
				12,762
					14,805
					15,728
					16,045
					16,368
					15,000
1,000		1,500			2,000		2,500		3,000			3,500	Zinc,
778													$/t
828
		1,048
	5		1,380									3,275
												3,275
						1,876						3,243
						1,876
					1,6542,160
							2,190
						1,947
						1,909
							2,162
						1,932
							2,091			2,891
										2,891
										2,923
										2,920
									2,724
										2,860
										2,936
										2,995
											3,055
										2,800			Platinum,
				1,000		1,200		1,400		1,600		1,800	Platinum,
600		800
		691845											$/oz
					897								$/oz
					897		1,139
								1,302			1,572
							1,203					1,612
												1,612
												1,720
										1,551
										1,488
						1,056			1,385
						988
					950
					880
					863
				843
					900
					966
							1,071
							1,176
							1,100

350

					559
					200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40
					8
		2002			2															$/t China), (CIF fines ore Iron	price Commodity 109: Figure
		2002	20
	2003 (+4%)				29
	2004 (+11%)				32
	2005 (+41%)				45
	2006 (+33%)						59
	2007 (+106%)														122
	2008 (+25%)																152
	2009 (-44%)									85
	2010 (+79%)																152
	2011 (+15%)																	175
	2012 (-24%)														132
85March),(26Spot															136
	2013 (+3%)														136
	2014 (-29%)												97								forecasts
	2015 (-43%)					56
	2016 (+5%)					58
	2017 (+22%)							71
	2018 (-7%)					66
		Spot							85												compared
	2019E (3% downside)										88
	2020E (0% upside)								85
	2021E (10% upside)								78
	2022E (22% upside)							70
	2023E (20% upside)							71
	LT real (31% upside)						65														with
																					with
Spot			1,000	4,000 3,000 2,000					10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000											Copper,	spot
Spot			1,000		,				10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000											Copper,	spot
(26		2002			1															$/t
		2002
	2003 (+14%)					1,779
	2003 (+14%)					1,779
March),	2004 (+61%)						2,865
	2005 (+28%)							3,679
	2006 (+83%)															6,723
	2007 (+6%)															7,121
	2007 (+6%)															7,121
6,338	2008	(-2%)														6,961
6,338	2009 (-26%)												5,148
	2010 (+46%)																7,536
	2011 (+17%)																		8,811
	2012 (-10%)																7,950
	2013 (-8%)																7,328
	2014 (-6%)															6,861
	2015 (-20%)												5,512
	2016 (-12%)												4,867
	2017 (+27%)													6,170
	2018 (+6%)													6,532
		Spot												6,338
2019E (1% downside)														6,400
2020E (3% downside)														6,500
2021E (10% downside)														7,025
2022E (12% downside)																7,167
2023E (13% downside)																	7,311
LT real (5% downside)														6,700
						1,600			1,800			2,000
						,
		2002					1
(26Spot		2002					1,432							2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200						,Aluminium
	2003 (+6%)						1,432
		1,400 1,200 1,000
	2004 (+20%)										1,716
March),	2005 (+11%)											1,899								$/t
	2006 (+35%)																2,570
	2007 (+3%)																2,639
1,865	2008 (-2%)																2,573
	2009 (-35%)								1,664
	2010 (+31%)													2,173
	2010 (+31%)													2,173
	2011 (+10%)																2,398
	2012 (-16%)													2,018
	2013 (-8%)											1,847
	2014 (+1%)											1,866
	2015 (-11%)								1,664
	2016 (-4%)								1,604
	2017 (+23%)													1,968
	2018 (+7%)													2,110
		Spot										1,865
2019E (4% downside)												1,950
2020E (15% downside)														2,200
2021E (19% downside)																	2,307
2022E (21% downside)																	2,353
2023E (22% downside)																	2,401
LT real (15% downside)														2,200

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