vk.com/id446425943
Earnings revisions
Figures 102-104 summarise the changes to our earnings forecasts, as we incorporate revised commodity price and currency forecasts and make slight changes to our cost and volume assumptions in some cases.
Figure 102: Earnings for December year-ends
Dec-YE |
2019E |
2020E |
2021E |
2022E |
2023E |
Alrosa – adjusted EPS forecasts, RUB |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
12.26 |
14.19 |
14.31 |
13.77 |
14.04 |
Old |
11.86 |
14.56 |
14.16 |
13.72 |
14.05 |
% change |
3% |
-3% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
13.55 |
15.09 |
15.59 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
-9% |
-6% |
-8% |
|
|
Anglo American – underlying EPS forecasts, USc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
314 |
302 |
297 |
295 |
306 |
Old |
275 |
250 |
240 |
256 |
265 |
% change |
14% |
21% |
23% |
15% |
15% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
296 |
262 |
241 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
6% |
15% |
23% |
|
|
Anglo American Platinum – HEPS forecasts, ZAc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
7,264 |
9,007 |
8,367 |
7,499 |
6,731 |
Old |
7,158 |
8,619 |
7,829 |
6,975 |
6,210 |
% change |
1% |
5% |
7% |
8% |
8% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
3,792 |
4,100 |
5,118 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
92% |
120% |
63% |
|
|
AngloGold Ashanti – HEPS forecasts, ZAc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
1,820 |
1,740 |
1,410 |
1,610 |
1,770 |
Old |
1,830 |
1,720 |
1,360 |
1,560 |
1,720 |
% change |
-1% |
1% |
4% |
3% |
3% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
1,441 |
1,585 |
1,589 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
26% |
10% |
-11% |
|
|
Exxaro – Diluted HEPS forecasts, ZAc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
2,821 |
2,735 |
2,567 |
2,483 |
2,641 |
Old |
2,476 |
2,204 |
2,103 |
2,260 |
2,429 |
% change |
14% |
24% |
22% |
10% |
9% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
2,709 |
2,549 |
2,440 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
4% |
7% |
5% |
|
|
Glencore – underlying EPS forecasts, USc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
38 |
52 |
54 |
57 |
60 |
Old |
38 |
50 |
47 |
50 |
53 |
% change |
0% |
4% |
15% |
14% |
13% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
37 |
40 |
42 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
4% |
30% |
30% |
|
|
Gold Fields– HEPS forecasts, ZAc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
458 |
432 |
362 |
429 |
483 |
Old |
472 |
425 |
340 |
404 |
472 |
% change |
-3% |
2% |
6% |
6% |
2% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
293 |
370 |
293 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
56% |
17% |
23% |
|
|
Kumba Iron Ore – HEPS forecasts, ZAc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
5,701 |
4,586 |
3,860 |
3,176 |
3,312 |
Old |
3,687 |
2,604 |
2,429 |
2,695 |
2,850 |
% change |
55% |
76% |
59% |
18% |
16% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
4,071 |
2,837 |
2,493 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
40% |
62% |
55% |
|
|
Merafe – underlying EPS forecasts, ZAc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
23 |
30 |
30 |
21 |
21 |
Old |
21 |
26 |
26 |
20 |
21 |
% change |
7% |
12% |
15% |
3% |
2% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
21 |
25 |
29 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
10% |
17% |
5% |
|
|
NorNickel – underlying EPS forecasts, USc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
311 |
348 |
330 |
301 |
274 |
Old |
286 |
333 |
304 |
275 |
247 |
% change |
9% |
4% |
9% |
9% |
11% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
273 |
284 |
266 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
14% |
23% |
24% |
|
|
Polymetal – underlying EPS forecasts, USc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
136 |
137 |
132 |
148 |
155 |
Old |
147 |
149 |
139 |
153 |
155 |
% change |
-7% |
-8% |
-5% |
-3% |
0% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
114 |
122 |
127 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
20% |
12% |
4% |
|
|
Note: Priced at market close on 26 March 2019.
Source: Thomson Reuters, Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates
Renaissance Capital
1 April 2019
Metals & Mining
55
vk.com/id446425943
Renaissance Capital
1 April 2019
Metals & Mining
Figure 102: Earnings for December year-ends (continued)
Dec-YE |
2019E |
2020E |
2021E |
2022E |
2023E |
Polyus – underlying EPS forecasts, USc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
1,233 |
1,221 |
1,211 |
1,247 |
1,282 |
Old |
1,233 |
1,216 |
1,204 |
1,242 |
1,276 |
% change |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
1,095 |
1,054 |
1,194 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
13% |
16% |
1% |
|
|
Rio Tinto – underlying EPS forecasts, USc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
682 |
651 |
605 |
532 |
544 |
Old |
533 |
471 |
452 |
471 |
495 |
% change |
28% |
38% |
34% |
13% |
10% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
568 |
498 |
482 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
20% |
31% |
26% |
|
|
Rusal – HEPS forecasts, USc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
11 |
16 |
16 |
14 |
14 |
Old |
9 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
% change |
25% |
31% |
24% |
11% |
3% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
10.9 |
12 |
13 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
-1% |
30% |
17% |
|
|
Royal Bafokeng Platinum – HEPS forecasts, ZAc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
530 |
963 |
866 |
863 |
816 |
Old |
518 |
902 |
782 |
771 |
721 |
% change |
2% |
7% |
11% |
12% |
13% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
171 |
303 |
366 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
210% |
218% |
137% |
|
|
Sibanye-Stillwater – HEPS forecasts, ZAc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
214 |
447 |
417 |
370 |
283 |
Old |
218 |
431 |
393 |
349 |
256 |
% change |
-2% |
4% |
6% |
6% |
11% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
136 |
184 |
180 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
60% |
135% |
118% |
|
|
Vale – underlying EPS forecasts, USc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
239 |
217 |
199 |
192 |
196 |
Old |
184 |
146 |
136 |
155 |
159 |
% change |
30% |
48% |
46% |
24% |
23% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
128 |
203 |
163 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
87% |
7% |
22% |
|
|
Note: Priced at market close on 26 March 2019. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source: Thomson Reuters, Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates |
|||
Figure 103: Earnings for September year-ends |
|
|
|
|
|
Sep-YE |
2019E |
2020E |
2021E |
2022E |
2023E |
Lonmin – underlying EPS forecasts, USc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
66 |
73 |
52 |
32 |
16 |
Old |
66 |
70 |
47 |
26 |
10 |
% change |
0% |
5% |
12% |
23% |
64% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
15 |
17 |
16 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
333% |
323% |
221% |
|
|
Note: Priced at market close on 26 March 2019.
Source: Thomson Reuters, Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates
56
vk.com/id446425943
Figure 104: Earnings for June year-ends |
|
|
|
|
|
Jun-YE |
2019E |
2020E |
2021E |
2022E |
2023E |
African Rainbow Minerals – HEPS forecasts, ZAc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
3,033 |
3,613 |
3,294 |
2,705 |
2,749 |
Old |
2,892 |
2,839 |
2,570 |
2,421 |
2,523 |
% change |
5% |
27% |
28% |
12% |
9% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
2,734 |
2,862 |
2,202 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
11% |
26% |
50% |
|
|
Assore – HEPS forecasts, ZAc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
6,585 |
6,634 |
5,624 |
4,529 |
4,196 |
Old |
5,527 |
4,339 |
3,932 |
3,765 |
3,687 |
% change |
19% |
53% |
43% |
20% |
14% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
6,036 |
4,863 |
4,141 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
9% |
36% |
36% |
|
|
BHP – underlying EPS forecasts, USc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
195 |
232 |
205 |
193 |
196 |
Old |
177 |
176 |
150 |
163 |
174 |
% change |
10% |
32% |
37% |
18% |
13% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
196.8 |
195.9 |
171.2 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
-1% |
18% |
20% |
|
|
Fortescue – underlying EPS forecasts, USc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
82 |
91 |
68 |
53 |
44 |
Old |
48 |
54 |
35 |
33 |
32 |
% change |
72% |
68% |
96% |
63% |
38% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
75 |
54 |
42 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
10% |
69% |
62% |
|
|
Harmony – underlying EPS forecasts, ZAc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
201 |
534 |
361 |
193 |
229 |
Old |
212 |
514 |
295 |
114 |
146 |
% change |
-5% |
4% |
22% |
69% |
57% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
192 |
372 |
305 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
5% |
44% |
18% |
|
|
Impala Platinum – HEPS forecasts, ZAc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
871 |
1,665 |
1,782 |
1,688 |
1,509 |
Old |
878 |
1,616 |
1,685 |
1,586 |
1,410 |
% change |
-1% |
3% |
6% |
6% |
7% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
271 |
355 |
596 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
221% |
369% |
199% |
|
|
Northam Platinum – Normalised HEPS forecasts, ZAc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
399 |
841 |
978 |
1,056 |
973 |
Old |
404 |
812 |
916 |
985 |
902 |
% change |
-1% |
4% |
7% |
7% |
8% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
-21 |
203 |
323 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
2026% |
314% |
203% |
|
|
Sasol – underlying EPS forecasts, ZAc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
3,825 |
4,620 |
5,790 |
6,280 |
6,800 |
Old |
4,465 |
4,950 |
5,490 |
5,930 |
6,430 |
% change |
-14% |
-7% |
5% |
6% |
6% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
4,034.8 |
4,976.9 |
5,625.0 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
-5% |
-7% |
3% |
|
|
South32 – underlying EPS forecasts, USc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
24.8 |
22.2 |
24.2 |
23.2 |
23.2 |
Old |
24.3 |
21.7 |
21.5 |
20.4 |
20.7 |
% change |
2% |
2% |
13% |
14% |
12% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
25.7 |
25.6 |
25.7 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
-3% |
-13% |
-6% |
|
|
Note: Priced at market close on 26 March 2019.
Source: Thomson Reuters, Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates
Renaissance Capital
1 April 2019
Metals & Mining
57