X. Gap filling. Read through the gapped statements. Think about what information might be missing:

• Social history is _____ of ______ considered by some to be a ______ that attempts to _________ from the ______ of developing social trends.

• Social history is ______ as 'history ______ ' or ______ history' because it _____ the _____ people, the _____ and how they shape _____ rather than the leaders.

• Natural history is the _______ of plants or______, leaning toward the _______ than ______ usually, and ______ more research that is published in _____ than in _____ journals.

• Natural history _____ the research and _____ of statements that make _______ and life styles ______ by describing the ______ structures.

• Social history is _____ from______, ______ and the so-called_______.

XI. Answer the following questions:

1. What does social history include?

2. How social history is often described?

3. What does social history try to see?

4. What disciplines is social history distinguished from another fields of history? How?

5. Where can be seen an example of social history?

6. What does natural history involve?

7. What has natural history historically been?

8. How do we call a person interested in natural history?

9. What is natural history not commonly applied to?

XII. Give the summary of the text.

XIII. Render the text close to its original variant.

XIV*. Use the sources available to find some additional information on the issue. Present your reports in the class.

Unit XXXII

I. Look through the words and expressions and learn them:

• science of probability – наука ймовірності;

• probable, preferable, and wildcard futures – ймовірне, краще та непередбачуване майбутнє;

• latent potential of the present – прихований потенціал сучасності;

• to arrive at envisioned alternative future states – траплятися в уявному альтернативному майбутньому;

• the lack thereof – відсутність цього;

• sources, patterns, and causes of change and stability – джерела, приклади та причини зміни і стабільності;

• grounding and validation – обґрунтування та підтвердження;

• to challenge strategies composed for long term growth – піддавати сумніву методики створені для довготривалого розвитку;

• tertiary institutions – заклади вищої освіти;

• to conscientize responsibility – освідомлювати відповідальність

II. Read and translate the text: futurology

Futurology is the science and art of postulating the future by studying events and trends, and the worldviews and myths that underlie them. Futurology, or more appropriately "futures studies," seeks to understand what is likely to continue, what is likely to change, and what is novel. It thus seeks to understand past and present, and determine the likelihood of future events and trends. It is an interdisciplinary field, recording today's changes to predict their impact on tomorrow’s reality. It includes analyzing the sources, patterns, and causes of change and stability in the attempt to develop foresight and to map possible futures.

Futurology is the detailed critical inspection and reasoning of the state in which things will develop in the future on the basis of existing circumstances in history. The term literally means the "study of the future". The term was coined by German professor Ossip K. Flechtheim in the mid-1940's, who proposed it as a new branch of knowledge that would include a new science of probability.

Futurology basics Two factors usually distinguish the studies from the research conducted by other disciplines (although all disciplines overlap to differing degrees):

• Futurology often examines not only possible but also probable, preferable, and wildcard futures;

• Futurology typically attempts to gain a holistic or systemic view based on insights from a range of different disciplines.

Methodologies Like historical studies that try to explain what happened in the past and why, the efforts of futurology try to understand the latent potential of the present. This requires the development of theories of present conditions and how conditions might change. For this task, futurology, as it is generally undertaken, uses a wide range of theoretical models and practical methods, many of which come from other academic disciplines (including economics, sociology, geography, history, engineering, mathematics, psychology, technology, tourism, physics, biology, astronomy, and theology).

In a linear conception of time, the future is the portion of the timeline that has yet to occur, i.e. the place in space-time where lie all events that still have not occurred. In this sense the future is opposed to the past (the set of moments and events that have already occurred) and the present (the set of events that are occurring now). Futurists are those who look to and provide analysis of the future. The discipline is referred to by different terms, depending on the cultural context. Futures studies has become the common term in the English-speaking world.

Futures studies does not generally include the work of economists who forecast movements of interest rates over the next business cycle. The discipline also excludes those who make future predictions through supernatural means, as well as people who attempt to forecast the short-term or readily foreseeable future. However, while excluding those, it does seek to understand the models they use and the interpretations they give to these models.

Futurologists attempt to apply Strategic Foresight for forecasting alternative futures. While forecasting – i.e., attempts to predict future states from current trends – is a common methodology, professional scenarios often rely on "back casting" – i.e., asking what changes in the present would be required to arrive at envisioned alternative future states. Practitioners of futures studies classify themselves as futurists (or foresight practitioners).

The modern multi-disciplinary and cross-cultural discipline of futurology, known more generally as futures studies, emerged in the mid-1960's, according to first-generation futurists Olaf Helmer, Dennis Gabor, Oliver Markley, Burt Nanus, and Wendell Bell. Futures studies reflects on how today’s changes (or the lack thereof) become tomorrow’s reality. It includes attempts to analyze the sources, patterns, and causes of change and stability in order to develop foresight and to map alternative futures. The subjects and methods of futures studies include possible, probable, and desirable variations or alternative transformations of the present, both social and "natural" (i.e. independent of human impact). A broad field of inquiry, futures studies explores and represents what the present could become from multiple interdisciplinary perspectives. As a discipline it is still early in conceptual and methodological development, grounding, and validation. The Limits to Growth by Dennis Meadows is a good place to start. It is widely used by corporations, as a discipline to challenge strategies composed for long term growth.

Education in the field of future studies has taken place for some time. Beginning in the 1960's, it has since developed in many different countries. Futures education can encourage the use of concepts, tools and processes that allow students to think long-term, consequentially, and imaginatively. It generally helps students to:

• conceptualize more just and sustainable human and planetary futures

• develop knowledge and skills in exploring probable and preferred futures

• understand the dynamics and influence that human, social and ecological systems have on alternative futures conscientize responsibility and action on the part of students toward creating better futures.

While futures studies remains a relatively new academic tradition, numerous tertiary institutions around the world teach it. These vary from small programs, or universities with just one or two classes, to programs that incorporate futurology into other degrees, (for example in planning, business, environmental studies, economics, development studies, science and technology studies).