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Файл:Будущее Африки. Борьба новых и старых акторов. Материалы международной научной конференции. Москва, 13-14 марта 2012 г.
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21
Вступительное слово
judges” and warns against a tendency to look over our shoulders all the
time, worried about what the European and American investors will say.
He further argues that what is critical for the African Renaissance is that
our primary concern should be what we do among ourselves; he says Africa
needs to put in place massive programmes for its renewal – economic,
political, social and intellectual.
I conclude that, for all of Fantu Cheru and Joel Netshitenzhe’s obviously
correct conclusions – Africa needs to build its institutions.
I wish you all a fruitful conference.
Джоэл Кату Нетшитензе (ЮАР)
AFRICA’S NEW DEVELOPMENT TRAJECTORY
AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR GLOBAL
PARTNERSHIPS
The framing of discussions on Africa has historically been as important
as the content of the discussions themselves.
In many capitals of Europe, North America, Asia and Australasia
strategies for Africa abound. These have constantly been revised, especially
in the past two decades:
• as the Cold War ended, and with it the geo-political
competition between the forces of capitalism and socialism,
led respectively by the United States of America and the Soviet
Union;
• as Africa’s new growth and development trajectory started
to take shape more clearly and the vastness of extant natural
endowments became clearer;
• as players such as China, Russia, Brazil, India and Turkey
enhanced their involvement;
• as new dynamics in global security considerations such as
“the war on terror” started to play themselves out.
Given their experiences over many centuries, the people of Africa may
be forgiven their sense of déjá vu at these developments, reminded of the
General Act of the 1884 Berlin Conference which, for the rst time, in an
international statute, referred to the notion of ‘spheres of inuence’1.
This is because that paradigm in relating to Africa continues to this
day. It is an approach that proceeds from the premise that the continent is a
passive object of other countries’ and regions’ geo-strategic interests.
There is an alternative, more humane and thus more sustainable paradigm. This is informed by a recognition that Africa is populated by a thinking and self-driven people, perfectly capable of pursuing their own strate-
gic objectives and of relating to the world within the context of their own
interests.
1
www.bbc.co.uk
Джоэл Кату Нетшитензе
23
Africa is stepping onto a new and higher growth and development tra-
jectory. The signals may still be faint. The new trend may be edgling; and
there may yet be zigzags and detours. But there is no gainsaying that a new
era is upon the continent; and those who wish to succeed in their relations
with it will need to frame their approach having fully appreciated and embraced this reality.
It is in the context of this paradigm of partnerships rather than others’
geo-strategic interests, that this brief paper will attempt to address develop-
ments in Africa and opportunities for partnerships.
Africa’s growth trajectory and prospects
Virtually all research on socio-economic developments on the conti-
nent does conrm a step-change in the fortunes of Africa’s people.
Perhaps more striking in this regard is the recent rendition of The Eco
nomist, which a few years ago had branded Africa as a hopeless continent
with societies which “for reasons buried in their cultures, seem especially
susceptible” to “brutality, despotism and corruption”2.
In a backtracking masterstroke, twelve years later, The Economist
wrote:
“From Ghana in the west to Mozambique in the south, Africa’s econo
mies are consistently growing faster than those of almost any other region
of the world. At least a dozen have expanded by more than 6% a year for
six or more years. Ethiopia will grow by 7,5% this year, without a drop of
oil to export. Once a byword for famine, it is now the world’s tenthlargest
producer of livestock...
Severe income disparities persist through much of the continent; but
a genuine middle class is emerging. According to Standard Bank, which
operates throughout Africa, 60m African households have annual incomes
greater than $3,000 at market exchange rates. By 2015, that number is
expected to reach 100m—almost the same as in India now”3.
There are variations in performance in various countries and regions.
But other macro-economic indicators have conrmed this trend. Since
2000, African trade with the rest of the world increased by 200%; ination
dropped from 22% in the decade before that to 8%; foreign debts declined
by 25%; and labour productivity is growing by about 2,7% per annum4. In
Sub-Saharan Africa, on average real GDP per capita was declining by 0,2%
2
Hopeless Africa // The Economist. May 11, 2000.
3
Africa’s hopeful economies // The Economist. December 3, 2011.
4
Ibidem.
24
Africa’s New Development Trajectory and Opportunities
between 1980 and 1994; but this had changed to positive growth of 2,3%
between 1995 and 20095.
While these indicators do reect a new economic storyline for Africa,
it is their meaning for human development in general that is even more
encouraging. The 2010 and 2011 United Nations Reports, assessing progress towards the 2015 Millennium Development Goals indicate that in sub-
Saharan Africa6:
• the proportion of the working population with income of
less than US$1.25 a day decreased from 67% in 1998 to 58% in
2008;
• rural poverty was reduced by 5.1% between 1998 and
2008;
• the unemployment rate declined from 9% in 1990 to 8% in
2007 (with a rapidly growing labour force);
• primary education enrolment was at 58% in 2000 and
improved to 74% in 2007 and this is increasingly reecting gender
demographics;
• under-ve mortality rates declined from 165 deaths per
1 000 live births in 1990 to 118 in 2009 – about 20% in 20 years.
As in other parts of the world, the global economic crisis has dampened improvement in some of the indicators. In 2009, for instance, the
proportion of the working population on less than $1,25 a day slipped back
from 58% the previous year to 64%. But the general trend is one of resilience. The World Bank projects growth in Africa in 2012 at 5,3% and 5,6%
in 2013. Foreign Direct Investment into Africa “was forecast, by Ernst &
Young, to reach $150 billion by 2015 from $84 billion in 2010”7.
On the medium to long-term outlook, the McKinsey Global Institute8
projects that:
• Africa’s collective GDP, at roughly equal to Brazil’s or
Russia’s ($1,6 trillion) in 2008, would grow to $2,6 trillion by
2020;
• in the same period, the combined consumer spending would
increase from $860 bn to $1,4 trillion;
5
IMF. Sub-Saharan Africa: Resilience and Risks. October 2010.
6
UN. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals
(2011); The Millennium Development Goals Report, 2009 – http://www.un.org
7
http://www.polity.org.za
8
Lions on the move: The progress and potential of African economies.
McKinsey Global Institute. 2010.
25
Джоэл Кату Нетшитензе
• the agricultural sector would massively improve as Africa
has a 60% share of the world’s total amount of uncultivated arable
land.
Beyond these detailed gures, what is the overarching narrative to
Africa’s socio-economic trends?
Firstly, it is that the continent has successfully embarked on programmes
to build its infrastructure including energy, ICT, rail, water, refurbishment
and expansion of properties in its cities and towns and so on. While most
of the supplies for these projects are imported, there is great potential
for the continent to build a manufacturing capacity on the back of these
initiatives.
Secondly, while most of the analysis of the African growth story
focusses on the extractive industry, the continent’s economic performance
in the past decade was spread across sectors such as tourism, nancial
intermediation, transport and telecommunications, construction, utilities
and resources – roughly in this order.
Thirdly, the virtuous cycle of growth that entails more employed people
and a burgeoning ‘middle class’, and thus consumer spending, is bound
to drive further growth in retail and services sectors as well as attendant
manufacturing capacity. Further, as Asia climbs up the manufacturing
sophistication ladder, many opportunities would open up for Africa to ll
the gap.
Fourthly, as demonstrated by the rapid expansion of access to
telecommunications and such related services as banking, Africa has the
potential to leapfrog some stages in the logic of industrialisation. For
companies with the dexterity innovatively to adapt applications to African
conditions, the possibilities will multiply many-fold.
Contextual underpinnings of the new narrative
The International Monetary Fund and others point to improvements
in economic governance as the critical driver to Africa’s improving
performance.
But, beyond the number-crunching of technical economics, is there a
broader contextual underpinning to these developments? Is this not a false
dawn? What are the objective conditions and subjective factors that have
spawned these changes?
At a global level, the coincidence of a variety of factors in the 1990s
presented for Africa both opportunities and challenges. These include: the end
of the Cold War, the rise of globalisation, productivity in developed countries
that massively outperforms consumption, the ubiquity of information and
communications technologies (ICT), the rise of new economic powers,
26
Africa’s New Development Trajectory and Opportunities
growing activism by mass movements for equitable global relations, and
migration. Some of these issues are elaborated in the next section.
Within Africa itself, the circumstances were changing.
Firstly, the liberation of South Africa provided an opportunity for a
continent-wide critical self-examination. With the defeat of colonialism
across the length and breadth of the continent, continental solidarity
and partnership started to revolve around issues of democracy and
development.
Secondly, a new corps of leaders was emerging in this period, prepared
to stake their credibility and legitimacy on the improvement of Africans’
human condition, ranging from democratic governance to inclusive
economic growth.
Thirdly, African civil society, including the intellectual community, was
slowly starting to stir, demanding a place in the sun for Africa’s people.
Fourthly, as a consequence of interventions from the rest of the
continent, many of Africa’s domestic and regional conicts were being
resolved.
By the turn of the century, a critical mass of countries and leaders had
resolved to launch onto a new path. This congealed in the New Partnership
for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) and the reconguration of continental
institutions such as the Organisation of African Unity into the African
Union (AU) with a new mission and statutes.
It can therefore be argued that both objective conditions and subjective
factors had combined to afford Africa an auspicious moment for the launch
of its renaissance.
Progress, though, is not given. Conicts and tensions still dog parts
of the continent. Improvements in democratisation, economic governance
and anti-corruption measures are, in many countries, still tenuous. Though
impressive, the economic growth is from a low base. Over-reliance in some
countries on mineral endowments does present its own dangers, both in
terms of the destabilising effect of the global scramble as well as the ‘Dutch
disease’ of overvalued currencies and displacement of other industries. The
demographic dividend of a youthful population presents great possibilities
for economic activity; but also dangers of social instability if young people
cannot access opportunities. As the hitistes and shabab atileen showed in
Tunisia and Egypt respectively, young people are bound to revolt against
marginalisation, corruption and undemocratic rule.
Critically, the continent is still at the starting blocks in relation to intraAfrican trade. The World Bank paper on ‘de-fragmenting Africa’ makes the
correct observations that:
27
Джоэл Кату Нетшитензе
“…African countries lag signicantly behind other regions in key areas
such as customs, infrastructure, competence in logistics, and timeliness of
exports and imports…
“[A] common feature in Africa is that the cost of moving goods between
countries is high, transit times uncertain and delays exceptionally long.
Unless all the factors leading to these symptoms are addressed, [Sub
Saharan Africa’s] trade competitiveness will remain compromised…
“Clearly there is a need to scale up the levels of investment in trade
related infrastructure… However, infrastructure improvements alone,
though important, will neither signicantly reduce trade transaction costs
nor improve reliability…
“What is needed therefore is to ensure that upgrading of hard infra
structure is coordinated with improvements to the “soft” infrastructure,
such as institutional and regulatory reforms that deliver the competitive
provision of high quality transport and logistics services”9.
Therefore, the progress going forward depends on a multiplicity of
factors, critical among which is the consolidation of the positive trends
identied above and dogged attention to the weaknesses. Further, the performance of the ‘growth locomotives’ in the various regions, the resilience
of countries that are emerging from periods of debilitating conict, and the
management of remaining conicts will stand the continent in good stead.
Thus would it be possible for Africa irreversibly to launch onto a higher
growth and development trajectory, in a Continental Democratic Revolution that combines the development of productive forces, improvement in
people’s socio-economic conditions and humane governance based on an
abiding culture of human rights.
Will the global environment afford Africa the platform to pursue its
ideals?
The global context
The growing self-assertion of Africa on the world stage proceeds,
among others, from the perspective that the continent cannot continue to
attribute its current difculties solely to its history of colonial subjugation,
nor on the neo-colonial machinations of the post-independence era. There
is much that African leaders themselves did or did not do that precipitated
the pre-2000 decline.
However, current and future global realities – ranging from the
trajectory of the capitalist system to the emergence of new global economic
9
De-fragmenting Africa: Deepening Regional Trade Integration in Goods and
Services. The World Bank. 2012.
28
Africa’s New Development Trajectory and Opportunities
powers – do have and will continue having a signicant impact on Africa’s
fortunes.
In 1992 Marguerite Michaels of Time Magazine proclaimed that the
“United States has been retreating from Job’s continent since the implosion
of the Soviet Union set America free to pursue its own interests in Africa –
and it found it did not have any…”10. But this has proven to be a mirage.
In this regard, the observation by Karl Marx et al in 1848 remains
relevant to this day:
“The need of a constantly expanding market for its products chases the
bourgeoisie over the entire surface of the globe. It must nestle everywhere,
settle everywhere, establish connexions everywhere…”11.
As V.I. Lenin was later to opine, the capitalist system would mature to
include the emergence of nance capital, the export of capital rather than
just commodities, “the formation of international monopolist capitalist
associations which share the world among themselves and … the territorial
division of the whole world among the biggest capitalist powers”12.
The capitalist system has been rened over the years, regenerating itself
and adapting to changing circumstances. But its essence, as described by
Marx and Lenin, remains. In the current period, and in relation to Africa,
elements of this essence include:
• Rapid development of productive forces: This encompasses, among other factors, the rapid development of information
and communications technologies (ICT), which make it easier for
transnational corporations to disperse elements of their production
chains across the globe, in a world economy “whose core com
ponents have the institutional, organizational, and technological
capacity to work as a unit in real time, or in chosen time, on a
planetary scale”13.
• Constant migration of production sites: In relation to the
above, there is a permanent search for locations that afford the
lowest costs and the highest returns. At the same time, as reected
in today’s China, these locations do gradually climb up the manufacturing sophistication ladder, leading to constant migrations of
10
Michaels Marguerite (Nairobi Bureau Chief of Time magazine, Foreign
Affairs). Retreat from Africa.
11
Manifesto of the Communist Party. 1848.
12
Lenin V.I. Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism.
13
Castells Manuel. The rise of the network society (Second Edition). John Wiley
& Sons, 2009.
29
Джоэл Кату Нетшитензе
production facilities. In Asia, locations such as Vietnam and Bangladesh currently provide these platforms. But, in time, this is
bound to change; and Africa is steadily coming into the sights of
these corporations.
• Inequality and short-termism: While much progress has
been made across the globe in the past two decades in reducing ab-
solute poverty, particularly in Asia, Latin America and Africa, inequality has largely increased. Even in celebrated China, the Gini
coefcient had increased to 0,47 in 2010: “…income of the top
10% of the richest Chinese was 23 times that of the bottom 10%
in the country in 2007, as compared with 1998, when the gap was
only 7,3 times”14.
Paul Krugman captures this succinctly in relation to the developed world
and the United States in particular: “Over the past 30 years.., according to
Fortune magazine, the average real annual compensation of the top 100
CEO’s went from $1,3 million – 39 times the pay of an average worker –
to $37,5 million, more than 1,000 times the pay of ordinary workers…”15.
At the same time, the tendency towards short-termism has grown massively, especially in the private sector, across the globe. In the name of
maximising returns for shareholders, executives are required on a quarterly basis to produce positive results, leading precisely to the maladies that
have sparked the current global economic crisis. Quoting Dominic Barton
of McKinsey, the Financial Times asserts that there has been “a wider drop
in trust in business since the global nancial crisis, which would require
capitalism to adopt a longerterm perspective, freeing executives from run
ning their companies merely to hit quarterly earnings targets”16.
• Continuing search for markets for nancial capital: In-
creasing interest in Africa is also reected in the nancial and stock
markets. In the words of the Financial Times:
“With many of its 48 economies rebounding from the crisis faster than
the rest of the world, subSaharan Africa is increasingly viewed as an op
portunity rather than a burden. It is rising rapidly up the agenda for global
investment managers and is talked about as never before in almost every
big nancial centre”17.
14
Chen Jia. Country’s wealth divide past warning level // China Daily. May 12,
2010 (also quoting Prof. Li Shi of Beijing Normal University).
15
Krugman Paul. For Richer // New York Times Magazine. October 20, 2002.
16
Financial Times. July 11, 2011.
17
Ripe for reappraisal // Financial Times. May 19, 2011.
30
Africa’s New Development Trajectory and Opportunities
• An even bigger thirst for raw materials: These range
from minerals and rare earths to oil and agricultural products. In
a 2011 scenario exercise, the European Commission expressed
concern about the European Union being “highly dependent on
imports of raw materials which are increasingly affected by mar
ket distortions”18. Concerns expressed included supply risks due to
concentration of some of these resources in places such as China,
Congo, Russia, Brazil and South Africa.
The US on the other hand has in the past decade paid attention,
among others, to its increasing dependence on African oil, especially
in West Africa and the Gulf of Guinea in particular. This also applies to
resources such as Platinum Group Metals concentrated in South Africa
and Zimbabwe, which are critical for the nascent Hydrogen Economy and
fuel cell technology.
An advisory Team, the African Oil Policy Initiative Group, estimates
that, by 2007, the US was importing more oil from Africa than from Saudi
Arabia. It further observed:
“For too long Washington has been gripped by the perception that the
United States has no vital interests in SubSaharan Africa. Nothing could
be further from the truth… African oil is emerging as a clear direction U.S.
policy could take to provide a secure source of energy”19.
A Nigerian publication on oil and gas presents this US approach more
clearly:
“The reevaluation which has taken place in US foreign policy and
energy policy with the coming of President Barack Obama has not in any
way changed the basis [sic] thrust of those policies towards the Gulf of
Guinea. In that context, Obama’s trip to Ghana was seen as informed by
Washington’s strategy of working with regional allies in West Africa to
develop relationships which will secure US energy security in the long
term”20.
• Rivalries among major powers: While the post-World War
II alliances have seen greater co-operation among the ‘western’
powers, rivalries continue. But more pertinent in current strategies
18
European Commission (Enterprise and Industry) Workshop “Exploring
Success Scenario for 2030”. EU Raw Materials Initiative. January 2011.
19
African Oil Policy Initiative Group, References from Symposium on African
Oil: A Priority for U.S. National Security and African Development. January 2002.
20
Obasa Roland. US, China: Contending Interests in the Gulf of Guinea //
Nigeria’s Oil & Gas Monthly.
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