3• Consider state and local fire protection ordinances and fire hazard severity

6• Where appropriate, consider facility setback distances and buffers to separate

23A full assessment of the potential impact of solar energy development on the quality of

24the human and ecological environment over the next 20 years requires that an estimate be made

25of the amount of development that might occur in the six-state study area over that time frame.

26The amount of power projected to be generated through solar energy development in the six-state

27study area through 2030 is referred to as the RFDS in this Solar PEIS. For the Draft Solar PEIS,

28two methods were used to estimate an RFDS; one used the Regional Energy Deployment System

29(ReEDS) model, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the other

30used each state’s RPSs (see Table 1.6-1) to estimate corresponding renewable energy and solar

31development required to meet those standards. Results obtained by both methods and detailed

32discussions of the two methods were provided in Appendix E of the Draft Solar PEIS.

33

34To establish an upper bound on potential environmental impacts under the various

35alternatives assessed in the Solar PEIS, the maximum estimated development as projected by the

36RPS-based method was used as the RFDS for the cumulative impact assessments presented in

37Chapters 6 and 7. The RFDS that was developed for the Draft Solar PEIS is still considered to be

38valid to support analyses in this Final Solar PEIS. The RFDS was calculated on the basis of the

39requirements for electricity generation from renewable energy resources established in the RPSs

40in each of the six states. To establish an upper bound, it was assumed that 50% of the RPS-based

41requirement for renewable energy production would be provided from solar energy and that 75%

42of the solar development would occur on BLM-administered lands within the specific state.

43

44Table 2.4-1 presents the RFDS for each state in terms of projected megawatts and

45estimated acres of land required to support that level of development. The calculated number

46of BLMand non-BLM-administered acres likely to be developed over the next 20 years is

aSee Appendix E of the Draft Solar PEIS for details on the methodologies used to calculate the RFDS.

bAcreage calculated assuming land use of 9 acres/MW (0.04 km2/MW). To convert acres to km2, multiply by 0.004047.

4

5

6based on the assumed RFDS and on a high-end estimated land requirement of 9 acres/MW

7 (0.04 km2/MW) for development. As shown, the estimated amount of solar energy generation on 8 BLM-administered lands in the study area over the 20-year study period is about 24,000 MW,

9 with a corresponding dedicated use of about 214,000 acres (866 km2) of BLM-administered

10lands. The estimated total amount of solar energy generation on all lands in the study area over

11the 20-year study period is 32,000 MW, with a corresponding dedicated use of about

12285,500 acres (1,155km2) of land.

13

14A number of comments on the Draft Solar PEIS pointed out that the RFDS calculations

15do not account for the import and export of solar-generated electricity between states and, as a

16result, the calculations could underestimate potential development in a given state. Specifically,

17it was pointed out that renewable energy generated in Arizona, Nevada, and even Utah might be

18exported to California as utilities try to meet the RPS established in that state. In such cases, the

1total level of development in these states would be greater than that projected by the RFDS.

2 While these are valid considerations, the conditions assumed in the RFDS (i.e., that 50% of the 3 renewable energy development would be from solar and that 75% of it would occur on BLM- 4 administered lands) provide an upper bound on the potential solar development both within a 5 state and on BLM-administered lands that might accommodate additional development for

6 exported electricity.

7

8

9 2.4.1 Comparison of RFDS with Lands Available under the Action Alternatives

10

11The estimates of acres developed under the state-specific RFDS levels are presented in

12Table 2.4-2. For the evaluation of BLM alternatives, the estimated percentage of BLM-

13administered lands available for development under the development program alternative

14(i.e., about 19 million acres [82,964 km2]) or under the SEZ program alternative (i.e., about

15285,000 acres [2,741 km2]) that would be developed based on the RFDS projections varies by

18TABLE 2.4-2 Percentage of Available Lands Developed by the BLM Action Alternative

19Based on Estimated Acres Developed under the RFDS

aTo convert acres to km2, multiply by 0.004047.

bSee Table 2.4-1 for basis for these estimates.

cSee Section 2.2-1.

dSee Section 2.2.3. For the purpose of the RFDS estimates of development, the entire estimated developable acreage of the SEZs is assumed to be developed in the calculation of percentage developed; however, some portion will not be developable due to various restrictions.

eThe estimated number of acres needed for development based on the RFDS projection exceeds the acreage proposed to be available in Arizona and Colorado under the SEZ alternative; thus it is assumed that 100% of the SEZs in those states would be developed over the 20-year time frame assessed in this PEIS.

20