- •Summary
- •Introduction
- •Contents
- •List of Main Symbols
- •2.1 Introduction
- •2.2 Aim and Scope of the Project
- •2.3 Activating the Model: Simulation
- •2.4 The Results of the Simulation
- •2.4.1 Sensitivity Analysis
- •2.5 The Results
- •2.6 Summary and Conclusion
- •3.1 Introduction
- •3.2 Risk in Waste Management (Environmental Protection) in European Union and International Legislation
- •3.4 Developing the Model
- •3.6 Activating the Model: The Results of the Simulation
- •3.7 Summary and Conclusion
- •4.1 Introduction
- •4.2 Origin and Development of the LCA Method
- •4.4 Uncertainty and Random Variables in LCA Research
- •4.5 Types of Random Variables in Uncertainty Analysis in LCA Studies
- •4.6.1 Aim and Scope of the Project
- •4.8 Description of the Functional Unit of the Boundary System of the Performed Analysis: Inventory Analysis
- •4.9 The Life Cycle Impact Assessment LCA
- •4.12 The Results of the Simulation
- •4.13 Sensitivity Analysis
- •4.13.1 Tornado Chart
- •4.13.2 Spider Chart
- •4.14 Summary and Conclusion
- •5.1 Introduction
- •5.2 Characterisation of Waste Management in the Discussed Facilities
- •5.2.1 The Coke Production Facility: Coke Plant
- •5.2.2 The Ore Sintering Facility: Sintering Plant
- •5.2.3 The Pig Iron Melting Facility: Blast Furnaces
- •5.2.4 The Steel Melting Facility: Converter Plant
- •5.2.5 The Continuous Steel Casting Facility: CSC
- •5.2.6 The Facility for Hot Rolling of Ferrous Metals: Hot Strip Mill
- •5.3 Aim and Scope of the Analysis
- •5.4 Waste Management Balance, Analysis Assumptions
- •5.5 The Life Cycle Impact Assessment: Interpretation
- •5.6 The Analysis of the Results
- •5.7 Stochastic Analysis as an Uncertainty Calculation Tool in the LCA Study
- •5.8 The Results of the Simulation
- •5.9 Sensitivity Analysis
- •5.10 The Results of the Simulation
- •5.11 Sensitivity Analysis
- •5.12 Summary and Conclusion
- •6.1 General Conclusion
- •Bibliography
Contents
1 Introduction to Monte Carlo (MC) Method: Random Variables |
|
|
in Stochastic Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
1 |
|
2 Stochastic Model of the Diffusion of Pollutants in Landfill |
|
|
Management Using Monte Carlo Simulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
7 |
|
2.1 |
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
7 |
2.2 |
Aim and Scope of the Project . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
9 |
|
2.2.1 Constructing the Model: Defining Input Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
12 |
2.3 |
Activating the Model: Simulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
15 |
2.4 |
The Results of the Simulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
17 |
|
2.4.1 Sensitivity Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
20 |
2.5 |
The Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
24 |
2.6 |
Summary and Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
25 |
3The Role of Risk Assessment in Investment Costs Management, Based on the Example of Waste Treatment (Gasification)
Facility in the City of Konin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
27 |
|
3.1 |
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
27 |
3.2 |
Risk in Waste Management (Environmental Protection) |
|
|
in European Union and International Legislation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
27 |
3.3 |
The Application of MC Simulation, Using Simlab® Software, |
|
|
in the Analysis of Investment Risk: Probabilistic Cost Model |
|
|
of the Construction Project of the Waste Treatment Facility |
|
|
in the City of Konin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
28 |
3.4 |
Developing the Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
29 |
3.5 |
Defining Input Data: Organising the Simulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
32 |
3.6 |
Activating the Model: The Results of the Simulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
32 |
3.7 |
Summary and Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
41 |
xi
xii |
Contents |
4Stochastic Analysis of the Environmental Impact of Energy Production Processes, Based on the Example of MSP
Power Plant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
47 |
|
4.1 |
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
47 |
4.2 |
Origin and Development of the LCA Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
48 |
4.3 |
Defining the LCA Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
50 |
4.4 |
Uncertainty and Random Variables in LCA Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
51 |
4.5 |
Types of Random Variables in Uncertainty Analysis |
|
|
in LCA Studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
56 |
4.6 |
Life Cycle Assessment of the Impact on Natural Environment |
|
|
of Energy Generation Processes in MSP S.A., |
|
|
Unit in Krako´w, Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
66 |
|
4.6.1 Aim and Scope of the Project . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
66 |
4.7 |
Description of Energy Generation Processes in MSP S.A., |
|
|
Unit in Krako´w, Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
67 |
4.8 |
Description of the Functional Unit of the Boundary System |
|
|
of the Performed Analysis: Inventory Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
70 |
4.9 |
The Life Cycle Impact Assessment LCA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
73 |
4.10Stochastic Analysis of the Environmental Impact
of the Four Scenarios of Energy Generation Processes
|
in MSP Power Plant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
75 |
|
4.11 |
Defining Input Data: Organising the Simulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
79 |
|
4.12 |
The Results of the Simulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
82 |
|
4.13 |
Sensitivity Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
87 |
|
|
4.13.1 |
Tornado Chart . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
91 |
|
4.13.2 |
Spider Chart . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
94 |
4.14 |
Summary and Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
107 |
|
5Stochastic Analysis, Using Monte Carlo (MC) Simulation, of the Life Cycle Management of Waste, from an Annual
Perspective, Generated by MSP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
111 |
||
5.1 |
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
111 |
|
5.2 |
Characterisation of Waste Management in the Discussed |
|
|
|
Facilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
112 |
|
|
5.2.1 |
The Coke Production Facility: Coke Plant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
112 |
|
5.2.2 |
The Ore Sintering Facility: Sintering Plant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
112 |
|
5.2.3 |
The Pig Iron Melting Facility: Blast Furnaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
113 |
|
5.2.4 |
The Steel Melting Facility: Converter Plant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
113 |
|
5.2.5 |
The Continuous Steel Casting Facility: CSC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
114 |
|
5.2.6 |
The Facility for Hot Rolling of Ferrous Metals: |
|
|
|
Hot Strip Mill . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
114 |
|
5.2.7 |
The Fuel Combustion Facility: Thermal-Electric |
|
|
|
Power Station (Power Plant) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
115 |
5.3 |
Aim and Scope of the Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
116 |
|
Contents |
|
xiii |
5.4 |
Waste Management Balance, Analysis Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
117 |
5.5 |
The Life Cycle Impact Assessment: Interpretation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
121 |
5.6 |
The Analysis of the Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
133 |
5.7 |
Stochastic Analysis as an Uncertainty Calculation Tool |
|
|
in the LCA Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
134 |
5.8 |
The Results of the Simulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
136 |
5.9 |
Sensitivity Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
137 |
5.10 |
The Results of the Simulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
144 |
5.11 |
Sensitivity Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
146 |
5.12 Summary and Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
148 |
|
6 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
151 |
|
6.1 |
General Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
153 |
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
155 |
|