12. THE RESILIENCE OF US ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE

designed to simulate cyberand physical attacks on electric and other critical infrastructures across North America.

After each exercise or emergency incident, lessons learned are developed, which result in corrective actions and improvements to the DOE’s plans, policies and procedures. Once these corrections are made, the responders train towards the corrections and validate the training and corrections through exercises. This is referred to as the preparedness cycle, as referenced in Presidential Policy Directive 8.

Climate resilience

Several studies have assessed in depth how the US energy sector can improve its resilience to climate change. These include, among others, the Regional Energy Sector Vulnerabilities and Resilience Solutions report published by DOE:

“U.S. energy sector vulnerabilities to climate change and extreme weather” (DOE, 2013)

Climate Change and the U.S. Energy Sector: Regional Vulnerabilities and Resilience Solutions (DOE, 2015)

Climate Change and the Electricity Sector: Guide for Climate Change Resilience Planning

(DOE, 2016a) and “A review of climate change vulnerability assessments: Current practices and lessons learned from DOE’s Partnership for Energy Sector Climate Resilience” (DOE, 2016b).

The Fourth National Climate Assessment, Vol II: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States, led by the NOAA and published in 2018, is the fourth report in the National Climate Assessment series and focuses on the human welfare, societal and environmental elements of climate change and variability for 10 regions and 18 national topics (GlobalChange.gov, 2018). The DOE led the development of the energy chapter that characterises the effects of climate change on the energy supply, delivery and demand sectors in the United States. In addition to analysing the climate adaptation challenges (Table 12.3), the report also assesses how the US energy sector can enhance its resilience to climate change.

The report lays out current efforts to increase the resilience of the energy system in the United States (Table 12.3). Energy companies, utilities and system operators are increasingly adopting data collection methods, modelling and data analysis to support planning activities that enhance the climate resilience of energy systems. For instance, coastal infrastructure planning is beginning to consider rising sea levels and the risk of flooding, while thermal power plants started taking into account the potential changes to fuel and water supplies. Private and public-private partnerships are increasingly used to support co-ordinated action on climate resilience in the sector. The deployment of new, innovative energy technologies (e.g. alternative cooling systems that reduce water withdrawals, or use non-traditional water sources) for adapting energy assets to extreme weather hazards has also started improving the resilience of the energy system. However, some key barriers to scaling up resilience efforts in the US energy sector still exist, including the lack of reliable projections of climate change at the local level and the associated risks to energy assets, and the lack of national or regional cost-effective risk reduction design standards and strategy.

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12. THE RESILIENCE OF US ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE

Table 12.3 Potential energy sector impacts from extreme weather and climate change

Source: NOAA (2018), Fourth National Climate Assessment, Vol II: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States.

Table 12.4 Examples of energy sector resilience solutions

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Source: NOAA (2018), Fourth National Climate Assessment, Vol II: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States.

As previously mentioned, the DOE works regularly with private-sector utilities to address critical energy infrastructure challenges, including resiliency.

The US Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT) was launched in November 2014 and is managed by the NOAA Climate Program Office and hosted by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit, 2019). The tool is a result of interagency co-ordination and initiative among the NOAA, US Geological Survey, Bureau of Reclamation, EPA and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), with guidance from the US Global Change Research Program. As part of the US federal climate data-sharing initiative, the toolkit is a website designed to help people and institutions find and use tools, information and expertise to promote climate resilience.

Mapping and monitoring climate risks requires a solid database. Given the importance of the energy-climate nexus, energy is examined as one of ten topics under the CRT with a particular focus on the impact of climate change on energy security. The DOE in collaboration with the NOAA and NASA has included climate data relevant for energy sector resilience planning.

Climate-related factors are critical to energy production and demand, notably when it comes to water and cooling needs, or the geographic location of infrastructure (see also Chapter 3, “Energy and Climate Change”).

Energy production

Energy production in the United States is exposed to climate-related environmental changes, which can reduce the efficiency of energy production, especially for production processes that require water for cooling, thereby straining the resilience of energy systems.

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Water withdrawals for hydraulic fracturing represent a large demand for fresh water in the United States, and when water supplies are constrained, it affects the supply of oil and natural gas. In 2012, during one of the worst droughts in US history, certain companies that extract oil and gas using hydraulic fracturing faced higher water costs or were denied access to water for six weeks or more in several states, including Kansas, Texas, Pennsylvania and North Dakota. Some companies started to reuse hydraulic fracturing fluids to reduce freshwater requirements (EPA, 2019a).

Decreased precipitation, increased evaporation and increased temperatures associated with climate change may also reduce longer-term energy production in some regions such as the Southeast, Southwest and Northeast. For instance, water needs for cooling in power plants (the United States has a large nuclear and coal-fired power plant fleet) represents the largest demand for fresh water in the country, accounting for up to 41% of total water withdrawals in some regions. If water supplies are constrained, the supply of energy could be as well.

The Fourth National Climate Assessment also notes that in warmer climate, the efficiency of thermal power plants as well as the efficiency of transmission and distribution lines decline.

Reliable hydropower generation is also at risk as precipitation levels decline and seasonal streamflow becomes more irregular; California periodically faces serious water shortages and has cut the water use of its energy infrastructure.

Energy consumption

As the average temperature goes up, a combination of milder winters and hotter summers is expected to result in a net increase in energy consumption at a national level, but regional impacts may vary. Hotter and longer summers will increase power demand for air conditioning or cooling, particularly in the Southeast and Southwest parts of the country, while warmer winters will reduce the natural gas demand for heating, notably in the Northeast, Midwest and Northwest (EPA, 2019b).

The mix of energy sources in different regions may also change. Since heating depends on a mixture of electricity, fuel oil and natural gas, whereas cooling primarily uses electricity, the rise in temperature over time will increase demand for electricity and reduce demand for fuel oil and natural gas. These changes will alter the resilience attributes of the energy system, and increase the need to bolster electricity infrastructure resilience, in particular (EPA, 2019c).

Energy infrastructure siting

Making the most informed choices for siting, operating and managing energy facilities can promote resilience in the energy sector. Energy infrastructure assets are increasingly exposed to the threats of rising sea levels and extreme weather events. Sea level rises and resulting higher storm surges have the potential to impact multiple major energy facilities along the coast of the United States, such as power plants in California or oil and gas facilities near the Gulf of Mexico.

Planning flexible operation schedules to better manage energy peak hours; deploying more climate-resilient technologies, such as decentralised renewable energy; smart grids; ensuring regional multi-fuel product reserves for supply disruptions; and

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