3. ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE

dialogues, issuing technical documents, facilitating consistent measurement approaches and model policies, and providing direct technical assistance.

Climate change mitigation

Emissions targets

On 1 June 2017, the United States announced its intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement based on perceived costs to the US economy (White House, 2017a). The withdrawal will not take effect until next year as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) rules dictate that the earliest a signatory can withdraw is four years following the Agreement’s entry into force, or on 4 November 2020 (UNFCCC, 2017). Still, the US government continues to participate in UNFCCC meetings and in the UNFCCC process, including reporting emissions. The US administration is open to re-engaging in the Paris Agreement process under less onerous terms for the United States; under the Paris Agreement, the United States in 2015 established a target to reduce GHG emissions by 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025 (UNFCCC, 2015). Regardless of the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, the United States will remain a party to the UNFCCC, and therefore will continue to engage in multilateral climate negotiations.

A number of US states, cities businesses and academic institutions have supported the Paris Agreement and its targets as part of the US Climate Alliance.

The United States has focused its national policy for GHG emissions reduction through sectoral targets included within federal policies, reforming regulatory impediments, and allowing for financial incentives that foster clean energy production and use, as described below.

Figure 3.8 Emissions projections and outlook (based on EIA estimates)

IEA (2019). All rights reserved.

Note: toe = tonnes of oil equivalent.

Source: EIA (2019), Annual Energy Outlook 2019, www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/.

Looking ahead, until around 2025, CO2 emissions in the power sector are likely to decline further with strong growth of natural gas and renewables, supported by favourable market conditions (and policy conditions, in the case of renewables) (EIA, 2019). However, there remains a risk that emissions could pick up again in the

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IEA. All rights reserved.