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ENERGY

POLICIES

OF IEA

COUNTRIES

United

States

2019 Review

ENERGY

POLICIES

OF IEA

COUNTRIES

United

States

2019 Review

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

The IEA examines	IEA member	IEA association
the full spectrum	countries:	countries:
of energy issues
including oil, gas	Australia	Brazil
and coal supply and	Austria	China
demand, renewable	Belgium	India
energy technologies,	Canada	Indonesia
electricity markets,	Czech Republic	Morocco
energy efficiency,	Denmark	Singapore
access to energy,	Estonia	South Africa
demand side	Finland	Thailand
management and	France
much more. Through	Germany
its work, the IEA	Greece
advocates policies	Hungary
that will enhance	Ireland
the reliability,	Italy
affordability and	Japan
sustainability of	Korea
energy in its 30	Luxembourg
member countries,	Mexico
8 association	Netherlands
countries and	New Zealand
beyond.	Norway
	Poland
	Portugal
	Slovak Republic
	Spain
	Sweden
	Switzerland
	Turkey
	United Kingdom
	United States
	The European
	Commission also
	participates in the
	work of the IEA

Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t&c/

International Energy Agency Website: www.iea.org

Foreword

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has conducted in-depth peer reviews of its member countries’ energy policies since 1976. This process not only supports energy policy development, but also encourages the exchange of and learning from international best practices and experiences. In short, by seeing what has worked – or not – in the “real world”, these reviews help to identify policies that achieve objectives and bring concrete results. Recently, the IEA has moved to modernise the reviews by focusing on some of the key energy challenges in today’s rapidly changing energy markets.

The shale revolution continues to be a driving force for United States (US) energy policy, shifting gears from a mindset of energy scarcity to one of energy abundance. Innovations in oil and gas extraction through horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have made oil and gas production a mainstay of the US energy landscape and, indeed, the world. The timely siting of supporting infrastructure will be essential to ensuring continued gains from the shale boom. Notably, the shale revolution is expected to turn the United States from a net energy importer to a net exporter by 2020.

As with most IEA countries, energy security remains a priority issue for the United States, as the government steps up efforts to respond to new threats such as cyberattacks. Internationally, US energy exports are already playing an important role in diversifying global energy supplies.

US government policy is centred on the concept of “energy dominance”, which reflects a strategy to maximise energy production, expand exports and be a leader in energy technologies. Environmental deregulation is a central focus, though it may have implications for the emissions trajectory.

I am pleased to observe that the United States has already achieved impressive emissions reductions over the past decade. A sizeable driver of this has been the switch away from coal-fired generation in the electricity sector towards low-cost shale gas and renewables, aided by falling costs and policy support. While these trends are expected to continue, the closure of additional coal and nuclear generation capacity also warrants monitoring. Policy and regulatory responses will likely be needed to ensure a smooth transition in the electricity sector that accommodates the growth in variable renewables while also ensuring reliability and resilience of the overall power system.

It is my hope that this report will help support the United States as it manages the transition of its energy sector to ensure a clean, safe and affordable energy system.

Dr Fatih Birol

Executive Director

International Energy Agency

FOREWORD

ENERGY INSIGHTS
1. Executive summary.....................................................................................................	11
Overview............................................................................................................................	11
Key recommendations.......................................................................................................	15
2. General energy policy.................................................................................................	17
Country overview...............................................................................................................	17
Supply and demand of energy ..........................................................................................	19
Institutions..........................................................................................................................	26
“Energy dominance” strategy ............................................................................................	30
Energy policies ..................................................................................................................	32
Energy permitting and regulatory regimes ........................................................................	33
Energy pricing and taxation...............................................................................................	34
Energy data .......................................................................................................................	36
Assessment .......................................................................................................................	36
Recommendations.............................................................................................................	39
ENERGY SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION
3. Energy and climate change........................................................................................	43
Overview............................................................................................................................	43
Energy-related CO2 emissions ..........................................................................................	44
CO2 drivers and carbon intensity.......................................................................................	46
Institutions..........................................................................................................................	48
Climate change mitigation .................................................................................................	50
Adapting to climate change ...............................................................................................	57
Assessment .......................................................................................................................	59
Recommendations.............................................................................................................	61
4. Energy efficiency.........................................................................................................	65
Overview............................................................................................................................	65
Institutional governance of energy efficiency policies.......................................................	67
Transport sector ................................................................................................................	68
Residential and commercial ..............................................................................................	72
Industry ..............................................................................................................................	77
Demand response .............................................................................................................	79
Utility efficiency obligations ...............................................................................................	80
Assessment .......................................................................................................................	80
Recommendations.............................................................................................................	83

TABLE OF CONTENTS
5. Renewable energy.......................................................................................................	87
Overview............................................................................................................................	87
Supply and demand...........................................................................................................	88
Policies and measures ......................................................................................................	92
Assessment ....................................................................................................................	100
Recommendations..........................................................................................................	103

6. Energy technology research, development and demonstration.........................	107
Overview.........................................................................................................................	107
Public spending on energy RD&D..................................................................................	108
Institutional framework....................................................................................................	109
Energy RD&D programmes............................................................................................	110
Assessment ....................................................................................................................	121
Recommendations..........................................................................................................	123

ENERGY SECURITY

7. Oil ...............................................................................................................................	127
Overview.........................................................................................................................	127
Supply and demand........................................................................................................	128
Prices and taxes .............................................................................................................	136
Institutions.......................................................................................................................	139
Oil exploration policies....................................................................................................	139
Infrastructure...................................................................................................................	141
Emergency response policy ...........................................................................................	146
Assessment ....................................................................................................................	150
Recommendations..........................................................................................................	152

8. Natural gas ................................................................................................................	155
Overview.........................................................................................................................	155
Supply and demand........................................................................................................	156
Market structure..............................................................................................................	163
Price and taxes...............................................................................................................	165
Infrastructure...................................................................................................................	167
Gas emergency response ..............................................................................................	174
Assessment ....................................................................................................................	176
Recommendations..........................................................................................................	178

9. Electricity...................................................................................................................	181
Overview.........................................................................................................................	181
Electricity supply and demand........................................................................................	182
Electricity system regulation...........................................................................................	186
The physical grid ............................................................................................................	187
Market structure..............................................................................................................	188
Retail prices and taxation ...............................................................................................	192

	6

	TABLE OF CONTENTS
Policies and regulations..................................................................................................	193
Electricity in the low-carbon transition............................................................................	195
Energy security...............................................................................................................	201
Assessment ....................................................................................................................	209
Recommendations..........................................................................................................	211
10. Nuclear.....................................................................................................................	217
Overview.........................................................................................................................	217
Institutional oversight and regulation..............................................................................	218
Operational fleet .............................................................................................................	221
New builds ......................................................................................................................	224
SMRs and other advanced reactors...............................................................................	225
Nuclear fuel cycle ...........................................................................................................	227
Innovation, nuclear research, human resources, education..........................................	228
Assessment ....................................................................................................................	229
Recommendations..........................................................................................................	231
11. Coal ..........................................................................................................................	233
Overview.........................................................................................................................	233
Supply and demand........................................................................................................	234
Institutions.......................................................................................................................	237
Policy and regulation ......................................................................................................	238
Emissions reduction efforts for coal-fired generation.....................................................	241
Assessment ....................................................................................................................	243
Recommendations..........................................................................................................	245
12. The resilience of US energy infrastructure .........................................................	249
Overview.........................................................................................................................	249
Definition of resilience ....................................................................................................	250
Institutional governance..................................................................................................	251
Energy resilience policies...............................................................................................	252
Climate resilience ...........................................................................................................	255
Resilience in electricity ...................................................................................................	259
Resilience in oil and gas infrastructure ..........................................................................	260
Cybersecurity resilience .................................................................................................	261
Assessment ....................................................................................................................	262
Recommendations..........................................................................................................	264

ANNEXES

ANNEX A: Organisations visited ....................................................................................			267
ANNEX B: Energy balances and key statistical data.....................................................			270
ANNEX C: International Energy Agency “Shared Goals” ..............................................			274
ANNEX D: Glossary and list of abbreviations ................................................................			276

7

TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF FIGURES, TABLES AND BOXES

Figures
2.1	Map of the United States .........................................................................................	18
2.2	Overview of the US energy system by fuel and sector, 2018 .................................	20
2.3	Breakdown of TPES in IEA member countries, 2018 .............................................	21
2.4	TPES by source, 1973-2018 ...................................................................................	22
2.5	Energy production by source, 1973-2018 ...............................................................	22
2.6	Import dependencies for different energy sources in TPES, 1973-2018................	23
2.7	TFC by sector, 1973-2017.......................................................................................	24
2.8	TFC by source and sector, 2017 .............................................................................	24
2.9	US trade in crude oil and petroleum products, 2000-17 .........................................	25
3.1	GHG emissions by sector, 1990-2017 ....................................................................	44
3.2	Energy-related CO emissions by sector, 1990-2017.............................................	45
3.3	Energy-related CO emissions by energy source, 1990-2017................................	45
3.4	Energy-related CO2 emissions and main drivers in US, 1990-2017.......................	46
3.5	CO2 intensity (energy-related emissions) in IEA member countries, 2017.............	47

3.6CO2 intensity of the United States and select IEA member countries, 1990-2017..47

3.7CO2 intensity of power and heat generation in the United States and in other

	selected IEA member countries, 1990-2017 ............................................................	48
3.8	Emissions projections and outlook (based on EIA estimates) ................................	50
3.9	US methane emissions............................................................................................	54
4.1	Energy supply and drivers, 1990-2017....................................................................	65
4.2	TFC per GDP in the United States and selected IEA countries, 1990-2017 ..........	66
4.4	Final energy consumption by sector, 1990-2017 ....................................................	67
4.5	TFC in transport by source, 1973-2017...................................................................	68
4.6	Energy intensity in road transport by mode, 2000-16 .............................................	69
4.7	Growth and projections for EV sales, 2010-50........................................................	71
4.8	TFC in residential and commercial sectors by source, 1973-2017.........................	72
4.9	Residential energy consumption by category, 2000-16 ..........................................	73
4.10	Residential energy intensity, 2000 and 2016 ..........................................................	73
4.11	Outlook for household building stock per type, 2017-50.........................................	74
4.12	TFC in industry by source, 1974-2017 ....................................................................	78
4.13	Energy consumption in manufacturing industry sectors, 2017 ...............................	78
5.1	Share of renewable energy in TPES, electricity and TFC, 1978-2018 ...................	88
5.2	Renewable energy in TPES, 2000-18.....................................................................	88
5.3	Bioenergy and waste supply by source and sector, 2018.......................................	89
5.4	Share of renewable energy in TPES in IEA member countries, 2018....................	90
5.5	Renewable electricity generation and projections, 1990-2023 ...............................	91
5.6	Share of renewables in electricity generation in IEA countries, 2018.....................	92
6.1	Government energy RD&D spending per GDP in IEA countries, 2017...............	108
6.2	Government energy RD&D spending in IEA countries, 2017 ..............................	109
6.3	Government energy RD&D spending by category, 2010-17................................	109
7.1	Share of oil in different energy metrics, 1978-2018 .............................................	128
7.2	US domestic oil production, 2008-18 ...................................................................	129
7.3	US oil import dependency ....................................................................................	130
7.4	Refinery gross outputs and demand by products, 2018 ......................................	131
7.5	Overview of US oil supply, demand and trades, 2008-18....................................	132
7.6	US crude oil net imports per country, 2008-18.....................................................	133
7.7	US oil products net imports per country, 2008-18................................................	133

	8

	TABLE OF CONTENTS
7.8	US oil consumption by product, 2008-18 .............................................................	134
7.9	US oil consumption sectors, 2007-17...................................................................	135
7.10	US oil fuel prices, 2008-18 ...................................................................................	137
7.11	Oil fuel prices in IEA member countries, second quarter of 2018........................	138
7.12	Oil infrastructure in the United States, 2018 ........................................................	145
7.13	Oil stocks in days of net imports and 90-day IEA obligation, end-January 2019 148
8.1	Share of natural gas in different energy systems, 1978-2018 .............................	156
8.2	Overview of US total supply of natural gas, 2000-18...........................................	156
8.3	US natural gas production, 2007-17.....................................................................	157
8.4	Seven major shale plays across the United States, 2018....................................	158
8.5	US natural gas consumption by sector, 2007-17 .................................................	159
8.6	US natural gas consumption outlook, 2012-24 ....................................................	161
8.7	US natural gas imports, 2000-18..........................................................................	162
8.8	US natural gas exports, 2000-18..........................................................................	162
8.9	US LNG exports by destination, 2016-17.............................................................	163
8.10	US LNG exports by destination (by region and country), 2016-17 ......................	164
8.11	Average wholesale gas prices at three US hubs, 2013-18..................................	165
8.12	Natural gas prices in IEA member countries, 2018..............................................	166
8.13	Gas pipeline map, 2018........................................................................................	169
8.14	Infrastructure development for LNG export terminals, May 2019 ........................	172
8.15	Infrastructure developments for LNG export terminals, 2019 ..............................	172
9.1	Electricity generation by source, 2018 .................................................................	182
9.2	Electricity supply by source, 1973-2018...............................................................	183
9.3	Electricity generation by source in IEA, 2018.......................................................	184
9.4	Electricity net imports and exports by country, 2000-17 ......................................	185
9.5	Electricity consumption (TFC) by consuming sector, 1973-2017 ........................	185
9.6	Monthly electricity generation by source, January 2013-July 2018 .....................	186
9.7	US electricity ISO and RTO regions.....................................................................	189
9.8	Electricity price trends in the US, 1990-2018 .......................................................	192
9.9	Industry electricity prices in IEA member countries, 2018 ...................................	193
9.10	Electricity generation capacity retirements, 2008-18 ...........................................	202
10.1	Nuclear power generation, 1973-2018.................................................................	217
11.1	Share of coal in different energy supplies, 1978-2018.........................................	233
11.2	Coal supply by source, 1973-2018.......................................................................	234
11.3	Weekly coal production by region, May 2018-April 2019.....................................	235
11.4	Hard coal trade by country, 1978-2018................................................................	235
11.5	Coal consumption by sector, 1973-2017..............................................................	236
11.6	US coal plant retirements and planned retirements, 2007-20..............................	236
12.1	Losses from billion-dollar weather events (inflation-adjusted) .............................	250

Tables

2.1Value of US trade in crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas and electricity

	with Canada and Mexico (USD in millions), 2017...................................................	26
7.1	Top 10 refineries in the United States..................................................................	144
9.1	Installed electricity generating capacity, 2000-17 (GW).......................................	183
9.2	RPS across US states ..........................................................................................	196
10.1	Status of SLR (80 years of operation)..................................................................	219
10.2	Premature shutdowns and planned shutdowns ...................................................	223
10.3	Plants that have benefited from state policies......................................................	224

	9

TABLE OF CONTENTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS
12.1	Components of resilience and resilience-enhancing measures ..........................	250
12.2	ISER response efforts, 2018 ................................................................................	254
12.3	Potential energy sector impacts from extreme weather and climate change ......	256
12.4	Examples of energy sector resilience solutions ...................................................	256
Boxes
5.1	Ethanol as transport biofuel in the United States....................................................	89
7.1	Suspension of 40-year-old ban on crude oil exports............................................	130
7.2	Interconnection with Canada................................................................................	143
8.1	Key drivers of US natural gas consumption: Power generation and chemicals ..	159
8.2	Growth of the US LNG trade and its outlook........................................................	164

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