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80

INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHIES

While there are a number of different definitions of cash flows from operations, the most reasonable way of defining them is to measure the cash flows from continuing operations, before interest but after taxes, and after meeting working capital needs.

Cash flows from operations = EBIT(1 Tax rate) Working capital

Debt Ratios Interest coverage ratios measure the capacity of the firm to meet interest payments but do not examine whether it can pay back the principal on outstanding debt. Debt ratios attempt to do this by relating debt to total capital or to equity. The two most widely used debt ratios are:

Debt-to-capital-ratio =

Debt

Debt + Equity

Debt-to-equity-ratio =

Debt

Equity

The first ratio measures debt as a proportion of the total capital of the firm and cannot exceed 100 percent. The second measures debt as a proportion of equity in the firm and can be easily derived from the first.

Debt-to-equity ratio =

Debt-to-capital ratio

1 Debt-to-capital ratio

Although these ratios presume that capital is raised from only debt and equity, they can easily be adapted to include other sources of financing, such as preferred stock. While preferred stock is sometimes combined with common stock under the equity label, it is better to keep it separate and to compute the ratio of preferred stock to capital (which will include debt, equity, and preferred stock).

N U M B E R W A T C H

Leverage by sector: Take a look at book value and market value debt ratios by sector, for U.S. and global companies.

Numbers Don’t Lie—Or Do They?

81

Variants on Debt Ratios There are two close variants of debt ratios. In the first, only long-term debt is used rather than total debt, with the rationale that short-term debt is transitory and will not affect the long-term solvency of the firm.

Long-term debt-to-capital ratio =

Long-term debt

Long-term debt + Equity

Long-term debt-to-equity ratio =

Long-term debt

Equity

Given the ease with which firms can roll over short-term debt and the willingness of many firms to use short-term financing to fund long-term projects, these variants can provide a misleading picture of the firm’s financial leverage risk.

The second variant of debt ratios uses market value (MV) instead of book value, primarily to reflect the fact that some firms have a significantly greater capacity to borrow than their book values indicate.

Market value debt-to-capital ratio =

MV of debt

MV of debt + MV of equity

Market value debt-to-equity ratio =

MV of debt

MV of equity

Many analysts disavow the use of market value in their calculations, contending that market values, in addition to being difficult to get for debt, are volatile and hence unreliable. These contentions are open to debate. It is true that the market value of debt is difficult to get for firms that do not have publicly traded bonds, but the market value of equity is not only easy to obtain, but it is also constantly updated to reflect marketwide and firmspecific changes. Furthermore, using the book value of debt as a proxy for market value in those cases where bonds are not traded does not significantly shift most market-value-based debt ratios.10

10Deviations in the market value of equity from book value are likely to be much larger than deviations for debt and are likely to dominate in most debt ratio calculations.

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INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHIES

D I F F E R E N C E S I N A C C O U N T I N G S T A N D A R D S

 

 

A N D P R A C T I C E S

 

 

Differences in accounting standards across countries affect the measurement of earnings. These differences, however, are not as great as they are made out to be and they cannot explain away radical departures from fundamental principles of valuation.11 Choi and Levich, in a survey of accounting standards across developed markets, note that most countries subscribe to basic accounting notions of consistency, realization, and historical cost principles in preparing accounting statements.12 As countries increasingly move toward international financial reporting standards (IFRS), it is worth noting that IFRS and U.S. GAAP are more similar than dissimilar on many issues. It is true that there are areas of differences that still remain, and we note some of them in Table 3.1.

The accounting convergence notwithstanding, differences remain across accounting standards. Ratios such as price-earnings that use stated and unadjusted earnings can be misleading when accounting standards vary widely across the companies being compared. However, the information exists for us to make the adjustments needed to accounting numbers for comparisons to be valid.

C O N C L U S I O N

Financial statements remain the primary source of information for most investors and analysts. There are differences, however, between how accounting analysis and financial analysis approach answering a number of key questions about the firm. We examined these differences in this chapter.

The first question that we examined related to the nature and the value of the assets owned by a firm. Categorizing assets into investments already made (assets in place) and investments yet to be made (growth assets), we argued that accounting statements provide a substantial amount of historical

11At the peak of the Japanese market, there were many investors who explained away the price-earnings multiples of 60 and greater in the market by noting that Japanese firms were conservative in measuring earnings. Even after taking into account the general provisions and excess depreciation used by many of these firms to depress current earnings, the price-earnings multiples were greater than 50 for many firms, suggesting either extraordinary expected growth in the future or overvaluation.

12F. D. S. Choi and R. M. Levich, The Capital Market Effects of International Accounting Diversity (New York: Dow Jones Irwin, 1990).

T A B L E 3 . 1 Key Differences between IFRS and GAAP

 

IFRS

GAAP

Net Effect

 

 

 

 

Philosophy

Principles based.

Rules based.

Firms get more discretion under

 

 

 

IFRS to make their own

 

 

 

choices, resulting in more

 

 

 

differences across firms.

Revenue

Revenues are recognized only

Revenues are recognized when

Revenue recognition may occur

recognition

when the risks and rewards

evidence that the product or

later in IFRS than in GAAP.

 

of ownership have been

service has been delivered

 

 

transferred to the buyer of a

exists.

 

 

product or service.

 

 

Long-term

If long-term asset is made up of

Asset can be capitalized and

Computing depreciation is more

tangible

multiple components, each

depreciated on a

work under IFRS. Net effect

assets

component has be capitalized

consolidated basis, based on

on depreciation is unclear.

 

and depreciated separately.

an overall life for the asset.

IFRS can create mix of market-

 

Firms can choose to value

 

and book-based valuations for

 

entire class of assets at

 

assets that vary across

 

market value, if there is a

 

companies.

 

reliable and regular source of

 

 

 

information for market value.

 

 

Short-term

Inventory is valued at lower of

Inventory is valued at lower of

Inventory likely to be valued

assets

cost or net realizable value.

cost or market value. Choice

closer to current value under

 

No LIFO option for

of FIFO or LIFO.

IFRS.

 

valuation.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(continued)

83

84

T A B L E 3 . 1 (Continued)

 

IFRS

GAAP

Net Effect

 

 

 

 

Long-term

Convertible debt broken down into

Convertible debt treated as

Debt ratios for companies with

liabilities

debt and equity components, based

debt, until conversion.

convertibles are lower under IFRS.

 

on values.

 

 

Consolidation

Consolidation required when you

Consolidation required when

More consolidation under IFRS rules

 

have effective control of an entity.

you own 51 percent of the

than GAAP rules. Shareholders’

 

Minority interest is reported outside

voting rights of an entity.

equity includes minority interest in

 

of equity on balance sheet.

Minority interest is a

IFRS.

 

 

component of equity in

 

 

 

balance sheet.

 

Investments in

Investment in securities can be

All investments, including

Holdings in other companies may

other entities

classified as trading, available for

investments in companies,

sometimes be marked to market

 

sale, or held to maturity. Equity

can be classified as trading,

under IFRS. Only securities get

 

approach required for investment in

available for sale, or held to

marked to market under GAAP.

 

businesses.

maturity. Proportional

 

 

 

consolidation is an option

 

 

 

with joint ventures.

 

R&D expenses

Research costs are expensed, but

Research and development

Companies that spend significant

 

development costs can be

costs are both expensed.

amount on R&D will see increased

 

capitalized if technical and

 

book value for equity.

 

economic feasibility has been

 

 

 

established.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Numbers Don’t Lie—Or Do They?

85

information about the former and very little about the latter. The focus on the original price paid to acquire assets in place (book value) in accounting statements can lead to significant differences between the stated value of these assets and their market value. With growth assets, accounting rules result in low or no values for assets generated by internal research.

The second issue that we examined was the measurement of profitability. The two principles that govern how profits are measured are accrual accounting (in which revenues and expenses are shown in the period when transactions occur rather than when the cash is received or paid) and the categorization of expenses into operating, financing, and capital expenses. Operating and financing expenses are shown in income statements. Capital expenditures do not affect income in the year of the expenditure but affect income in subsequent time periods in the form of depreciation and amortization. Accounting standards miscategorize operating leases and research and development expenses as operating expenses (when the former should be categorized as financing expenses and the latter as capital expenses).

In the last part of the chapter, we examined how financial statements deal with short-term liquidity risk and long-term default risk. The emphasis in accounting statements is on examining the risk that firms may be unable to make payments that they have committed to make; there is very little focus in accounting statements on risk to equity investors.

E X E R C I S E S

Pick a company that you are familiar with in terms of its business and history. Try the following:

1.Compute measures of profitability for your company relative to:

a.Revenues (net profit margin, operating margin).

b.Capital invested (return on invested capital, return on equity).

Compare the company’s measures to the averages on these measures for the sector in which it operates (from my website).

2.Compute measures of leverage for your company, by estimating the debt-to-equity and debt-to-capital ratios, on both a book value and a market value basis. Again, compare to the averages for the sector in which it operates.

3.Is the accrual income (reported in the income statement) consistent with the cash income (from the statement of cash flows)? If not, what accounts for the difference?

86

INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHIES

Lessons for Investors

The purpose of accounting statements is to give you a measure of how a company performed in the past. Your objective in investing is to consider how a firm will perform in the future.

Accounting rules provide significant discretion to firms in how they measure and report earnings. Firms that adopt aggressive accounting practices, even though the practices may be legal, will report higher earnings than firms that adopt more conservative practices.

As firms age, the book value of their assets will become less and less relevant as measures of what the assets are truly worth.

Firms with operating leases and off-balance-sheet financing owe much more than what they reveal as debt on their balance sheets.

The footnotes to the financial statements often carry more information than the financial statements themselves.

CHAPTER 4

Show Me the Money:

The Basics of Valuation

T o invest wisely, you need to understand the basics of valuation. In general, you can value an asset in one of three ways. You can estimate the intrinsic value of the asset by looking at its capacity to generate cash flows in the future. You can estimate a relative value by examining how the market is pricing similar or comparable assets. Finally, you can value assets with cash

flows that are contingent on the occurrence of a specific event (options). With intrinsic valuation, the value of any asset is a function of the

expected cash flows on the asset, and it is determined by the magnitude of the cash flows, the expected growth rate in these cash flows, and the uncertainty associated with receiving these cash flows. We begin by looking at assets with guaranteed cash flows over a finite period, and then we extend the discussion to cover the valuation of assets when there is uncertainty about expected cash flows. As a final step, we consider the valuation of a business with the potential, at least, for an infinite life and uncertainty in the cash flows.

With relative valuation, we begin by looking for similar or comparable assets. When valuing stocks, these are often defined as other companies in the same business. We then convert the market values of these companies to multiples of some standard variable—earnings, book value, and revenues are widely used. We then compare the valuations of the comparable companies to try to find misvalued companies.

There are some assets that cannot be valued using either discounted cash flow or relative valuation models because the cash flows are contingent on the occurrence of a specific event. These assets can be valued using option pricing models. We consider the basic principles that underlie these models.

I N T R I N S I C V A L U E

We can estimate the value of an asset by taking the present value of the expected cash flows on that asset. Consequently, the value of any asset is

87

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INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHIES

a function of the cash flows generated by that asset, the life of the asset, the expected growth in the cash flows, and the riskiness associated with the cash flows. We begin this section by looking at valuing assets that have finite lives (at the end of which they cease to generate cash flows) and conclude by looking at the more difficult case of assets with infinite lives. We will also start the process by looking at firms whose cash flows are known with certainty and conclude by looking at how we can incorporate the effect of uncertainty into value.

T h e M e c h a n i c s o f P r e s e n t V a l u e

Almost everything we do in intrinsic valuation rests on the concept of present value. The intuition of why a dollar today is worth more than a dollar a year from now is simple. Our preferences for current over future consumption, the effect of inflation on the buying power of a dollar, and uncertainty about whether we will receive the future dollar all play a role in determining how much of a discount we apply to the future dollar. In annualized terms, this discount is measured with a discount rate. However, it is worth reviewing the basic mechanics of present value before we consider more complicated valuation questions.

In general, there are five types of cash flows that you will encounter in valuing any asset. You can have a single cash flow in the future, a set of equal cash flows each period for a number of periods (annuity), a set of equal cash flows each period forever (perpetuity), a set of cash flows growing at a constant rate each period for a number of periods (growing annuity), and a cash flow that grows at a constant rate forever (growing perpetuity).

The present value (PV) of a single cash flow in the future can be obtained by discounting the cash flow back at the discount rate for the time period in question. Thus, the value of $10 million in five years with a discount rate of 15 percent can be written as:

$10

Present value of $10 million in five years = (1.15)5 = $4.97 million

You could read this present value to mean that you would be indifferent between receiving $4.97 million today or $10 million in five years.

What about the present value of an annuity? You have two choices. One is to discount each of the annual cash flows back to the present and add them all up. For instance, if you had an annuity of $5 million every year for the next five years and a discount rate of 10 percent, you could compute the present value of the annuity in Figure 4.1.

Show Me the Money: The Basics of Valuation

 

 

 

 

89

 

$5

$5

$5

$5

$5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now

1

2

3

4

5

$4.5454 $4.1322 $3.7566 $3.4151 $3.1046

F I G U R E 4 . 1 Cash Flows on Annuity

Adding up the present values yields $18.95 million. Alternatively, you could use a shortcut—an annuity formula—to arrive at the present value:

PV of an annuity = A

1

1 (1 + r)n r

 

 

 

1

1

 

 

 

 

5

 

(1.1)5

 

 

$18.95

0.10

 

=

 

 

 

=

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Getting from the present value of an annuity to the present value of a perpetuity is simple. Setting n to in the preceding equation yields the present value of a perpetuity:

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

A

 

=

(1 r)

 

 

PV of an perpetuity

 

r

+

 

= r

 

A

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thus, the present value of $5 million each year forever at a discount rate of 10 percent is $50 million ($5 million/0.10 = $50 million).

Moving from a constant cash flow to one that grows at a constant rate yields a growing annuity. For instance, if we assume that the $5 million in annual cash flows will grow 20 percent a year for the next five years, we can estimate the present value in Figure 4.2.

 

$6

$7.2

$8.64

$10.368

$12.4416

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now

1

2

3

4

5

$5.4545 $5.9504 $6.4914 $7.0815 $7.7253

F I G U R E 4 . 2 Cash Flows on Growing Annuity