Добавил:
Upload Опубликованный материал нарушает ваши авторские права? Сообщите нам.
Вуз: Предмет: Файл:

экономика для чайников

.pdf
Скачиваний:
21
Добавлен:
02.05.2015
Размер:
19.14 Mб
Скачать

B pe3YJIbTare npOHCXO,nHT TaK, 'ITO TYHeu: H ,lI;pynte BJUlhI phI6hI BblJlaBJIHBaIOTCH B OrpOM­ HbIX KOJIH'IeCTBax, H MHome H3 HHX yxe HaxO,nHTCH Ha rpaHH HC'Ie3HOBeHHH. 3To nPoHCXO­ ,nHT nOTOMY, 'ITO KIDIOlhIit phI6aK 3aHHrepeCOBaH B TOM, 'lT06hI noitMaTb KaK MO)I(HO 60JIbWe phI6hI, npH'IeM c,neJIaTb 3TO KaK MO)I(HO 6hICTPee, onepe,nHB BCex. TaKoe noae,neHHe 6hIC'rpO npHBo,nHT K HC'Ie3HOBeHHIO BJUlOB, H phI6aKH ,nOC'I'aTO'IHO XopOWO ocae,nOMJIeHhI 06 3TOit npo6rreMe.

Ho nOTOMY, 'ITO B 3TOM CJIY'lae YCTaHOBJIeHO BhIweonHcaHHoe npaBO c06cTBeHHocTH, OT­ ,neJIbHhIe pbI6aKH HH'Iero He MOryr c,neJIaTb .nJIH npe,nOTBpaw;eHHH KaTaC'J'POCPhI. 3To npOHCXO­ ,nHT nOTOMY, 'ITO eCJIH O,nHH H3 HHX peIUHT OTCTynHTbCH H HaJIOBHT Memwe phI6hI B Ha,ne)K,.ll;e, 'ITO 3TO nOMoxeT BH,ny BhIXHTb, npJUleT KTO-iIH6y,nb ,npyroit H noitMaeT pbI6y, KOTOPYIO OH nOxaJIeJI. B JII060M CJIY'lae BJUl HC'Ie3HeT. ,B pe3YJIbTaTe HHKTO He HMeeT XeJIaHHH OTKa3hI­ BaTbCH OT JIOBa.

3KOHOMHCThI aHaJIH3HPYIOT np06JIeMY no,n06HYIO 3TOit H ,neJIaIOT BhIBO,n 0 TOM, 'ITO e,nHH­ CTBeHHhIH cnoc06 OCTaHOBHTb phI6aKOB - 3TO H3MeHHTb npaBO C06CTBeHHOCTH TaKHM 06­ paJOM, '1T06hI JIIOnH MOfJIH BJIa,neTb XHBOit phI60it TO'lHO TaK xe, KaK CeH'IaC OHH BJIa,neIOT MeprnoH. B '1aCTHOCTH, eCJIH BhI 6y,neTe BJIa,neTb KOCHKOM XHBOro TYHu:a, TO Baw CTHMyJI 6y,neT COBepIUeHHo OTJIH'lHhIM OT CTHMYJIa,npyrHX phI6aKOB. BhI 3axoTHre COXPaHHTb pbI6y BMecTO TOro, 'IT06bI YHH'lTOXHTb ee, nOCKOJIbKY coxpaHeHHe BJUla H nOCTOHHHaH nOAKOpMKa PbI6bI npHBe,neT K n0JIY'leHHIO npH6billH He TOJIbKO B 3mM ro.ny, HO H B CJIe.lJYlOmeM.

CJIe,nOBaTeJIbHO, Kor,na 3KOHOMHCT Ha6JIIO,naeT CHTYau:HIO H3 paJpH,na "Tpare,nHH 06mHH", ero nepBhIM n06yx.neHHeM 6y,neT H3MeHHTb CHCTeMY npaB C06cTBeHHO­ CTH, cymeCTBYIOmYIO,ZJ;JIH ,naHHoro pecypca. BMecTO 06meCTBeHHoro npaBa nOJIb­ 30BaHHH, npH KOTOpOM KIDIOlhIit '1eJIOBeK HMen CTHMYJI B3HTb CTOJIbKO pecypca, CKOJIbKO CMoxeT, ,nO Toro, KaK KTO-TO ,npyroH c,neJIaeT 3m, 3KOHOMHCThI npe,ZJ;JIar raIOT BBeCTH '1acTHYJO C06CTBeHHOCTb, 'lT06bI nOHBHJICH CTHMYJI .nJIH coxpaHeHHH pecypca.

B CJIY'lae C '1pe3MepHOCTbIO phI6Horo npOMhICJIa O,nHHM H3 peweHHH np06JIeMbI MOXeT OKa3aTbCH npe,nOCTaBJleHHe phI6aKaM npaoo '1acnmit Co6cTBeHHOCTH Ha CymeCTBYIOmYIO pbI6­ HYIO Maccy - 3TO 03Ha'laeT, 'ITO HM npHHa,nJIeXHT BCH phI6a Ha onpe,neJIeHHoit reppHTopHH, nOKa OHa XHBa. 3TO ,nacT HOBhIM BJIa,neJIbu:aM COOTBeTCTBYIOmHit CTHMYJI .nJIH 3KOHOMHOro pacxo,noBaHHH 3anaCOB Ha nocTOHHHoH OCHoae. Eonee TOro, nOCKOJlbKY JIHIUb y o,nHoro '1e­ JIOBeKa 6y,ne:r npaBo JIOBHTb phI6y Ha ,naHHOit TeppHTopHH, He 6y,neT B03HHKaTb 6e3YMHOro axHoTaxa Me)l{,Lly KOHKYPHPYIOmHMH phI6aKaMH, CTpeMHW;HMHCH nOHMaTb KaK MO)I(HO 6oJIb­ rue PbI6bI ,nO TOro, KaK KTO-HH6y,nb ,npyroH c,neJIaeT 3m.

):{mI rex PbI6bHX KOCHKOB, KOTopble CBOOO,nHO MHrpHPYIO'I' no aKBaTOpHH MHpOBOro OKea­ Ha, ,nOJI)l(HbI 6bITb paJpa60TaHhI ,npynte peWeHID!. B 1'aKHX CJIY'laHX 6HOJIOm BHallaJIe onpe­ ,neJIHIOT MaKCHMaJIbHOe KOJIH'IeCTBO phI6hI, KOTOpoe MoxeT 6bITb BbIJIOBJIeHO 3a ro,n. 3aTeM rocy,napcTBO npoBO,nHT aYKu:HOH Ha npaoo JIOBJIH phI6hI B TaKOM onpe,neJIeHHOM KOJIH'leCTBe~

3roT MeTO,n npe.nynpe,nHT B03HHKHOBeHHe "Tpare,nHH 06W;HH" co:maHlieM HOBOro BJUla npaBa c06cTBeHHoCTH - pa3peIUeHHH Ha OTJIOB phI6hI. OH TaKXe MOXeT 6hITb nOJIe3HhIM npH CO:maHHH caMoqlHHaHCHPYIOmHXCH rocy,napcTBeHHblX nporpaMM. ,ll;eHbm, n0JIY'leHHhIe B pe­ 3YJIbTare npoae,neHHH aYKu:HOHOB Ha npaoo phI6HOH JIOBJIH, MOryr 6hITb HCnOJIb30BaHhI .nJIH

OnJIaThI pa60Tbl HHcneKTOpoB, HaHHTbIX C U:eJIbIO npe,n;ynpe)l{,LleHHH HeJIHJJ:eH3HpoBaHHOro OT­ JIOBa phI6hI, a TaIQKe .nJIH nporpaMM, CBH3aHHbIX C OXPaHoit OKPyxaIOIIleit cpe)J;hI.

308

'Iacn, III. MlfKP03lCdHOMlflCa - H8Y1C8 0 n088AeH1f1f norpe6KreneR If npe.qnplffITHif

rllasa 15

HeCOCTOSITenbHOCTb pb1HK8:

aCMMMeTpM'IH8S1 MHcI>OPM81.-'MSI

M 06~eCTBeHHble TOBapbl

B .9/1io1i uaIIe...

}>

KaKpblHKIo1 3aBlo1CSlT OT nonHoro paCKpblTIo1S1Io1HQ>opMaLJ,lo1101

}>

KaK COKpblTlo1e Io1HQ>opMaL.l,lo1101 MO)l(eT pa3pyWHTb PblHOK

}>

~ccneAOBaHlo1e pblHKa nOAep)l(aHHblX aBTOM06Io1ne~

 

101 pblHKa cTpaxPBaHIo1S1

 

}>

nO'leMy PblHOK He MO)l(eT Bcer,o,a npeAOCTaBnSlTb

 

06L1.leCTBeHHble ToaapbI

'

}>

nony'leHlo1e 06l1.1eCTBeHHblX 6nar OT rocy,o,apcTBa

 

101 <plo1naHTponoB

 

"1.J bIHKH IIpe)J;OCTIlBIDIIOT HaM IIO'ITH Bee, 'ITO MbI IIOTpe6JU1eM. O)J;HOBpeMeHHO C 3THM

J -

pbIHKH He MOryI' IIpe)J;OCTaBHTb HaM MHOroe H3 TOro, 'ITO Mbl xomeJlU 6bI 1I0Tpe6HTb.

3KOHOMHCTbI H83blB8.IOT TaKHe CHTYau,HH C/lyr«lJlMU HeCOCmORmeJlbHocmU pblHKa (marketfailure),

H B 3TOH maBe SI paccKIDKY BaM 0 )J;Byx CaMbIX HHTepeCHhIX H pacrrpocTJ)8HeHHbIX CJIY'laIDC. He­

COCTOHTeJIbHOCTH pbIHKa: aCHMMeTI)lI'IHOCTH HH<PoPMaIUfH H 06IIIeCTBeHHbIX TOBaPax. ACUMMempU~HocmbUHrPoPMa~uu- 3m cHTYaII;IDI, IIpH KOTOPOH HJIH 1I00cyrraTeJIb, HJIH IIPO­

)J;aBeu MOryI' 3HaTb 60JIbme 0 TOBape, IIO KOTOPOMY COBepmaeTCSI C)J;eJIKa, qeM )J;pyraSI JaHHTe­ peCOBaHHa5I cTOpOHa. K.n:aCCH'leCKHM rrpHMepoM 3)J;eCb MO:lKeT CJIY:lKHTb PbIHOK 1I0)J;ep:lKaHHbIX aBTOM06WleH BhICOKOro KJIacca. Brra)J;eJIeu, KOTOpbdt CTapaeTCSI rrpo)J;aTb MalIIHHY, 3HaeT ace 0 BhICOKOM KJIacce H Ha)J;e:lKHOCTH MamHHbI, HO 1I0TeHUHaJIbHbdt 1I0K}'IIaTeJIb BhIH)')K)J;eH )J;OBe­ pHTb JIHlIIb qeCTHoMY CJIOBy BJIa)J;eJIbua.

nOCKOJIbKY 1I0TeHUHaJIbHblH 1I00cyrrareJIb He HMeeT OCHOBaHHH BepHTb YTBepx.ueHHSlM rrpo)J;aBua 0 TOM, 'ITO MamHHa B caMOM )J;eJIe XOPOlIIa5I, OH IIpe)J;IIOJIaraeT xy)J;lIIee, a 1I03TOMY IIpe)J;JIaraeT HH3KYJO ueHY, crrpaBe)J;JIHBO 1I0JIara51, 'ITO )J;aHHa5I MalIIHHa BIIOJIHe MO:lKeT OKa­ 3aTbCSI 6apaxnoM. Ho IIOCKOJIbKY BJIa)J;eJIeu OCBe)J;OMJIeH 06 OTJIH'lHbIX KaqeCTBax MalIIHHhI, BblCTaBJIeHHOH Ha IIpo)J;aJKy, OH He comamaeTCSI C IIpe)J;JIaraeMOH CYMMOH, H MamHHa OCTaeT­ CSI HerrpO)J;aHHOH, a Bee IIOTOMY, 'ITO HeT )J;emeBoro H JIerKoro clIoc06a 1I0)J;TBep)J;HTb BblCOKHe KaqeCTBeHHble XapaKTepHCTHKH aBTOM06HJU1 1I0reHUHaJIbHOMY 1I0K}'IIareJlIO.

06U4ecm«eHHble mo«apbl "YGHBaIOT" pblHKH 1I0-)J;pyrOMY. 3'1'0 IIpOHCXO)J;HT IIOTOMY, 'ITO caMa IIpHpO)J;a 06IIIeCTBeHHoro TOBapa )J;eJIaeT qpe3BhI'la1tHo TPy,nHhIM qaCTHhIM IIpO)J;aBuaM 1I0JIY'lHTb 3a Hero IIJIaTY OT IIOTPe6HTeJIe1t. K.n:aCCH'leCKHH IIpHMep - Ma5IK. O)J;HaX,llhI 803­ )J;BHrHYTbI1t H 3ID1OKeHHhI1t, ()H rrpHHOCHT 1I0JIb3Y BceM rrpOXO)J;SlIIIHM MHMO Kopa6JmM, 6e3OT­ HOCHTeJIbHO TOro, OIIJIaTHJIH OHH 3TY yCJ1YrY HJIH HeT.

3TO CJIY'laH, KOr.n;a KaJK,lJ.bI:tl: BJIMe.TIeu cy.n;Ha CTapaeTCH H36e:lKaTb OIIJIaTbI yCJIYI' B HMexme, 'ITO KTO-HH6yJU> .n;pyro:tl: 3aIIJIaTHT 3a HIDC Ho ecJIH KaJK,lJ.bI:tl: H3 HHX He 6y.n;eT IIJIaTHTb, HMeHCb, 'ITO KTO-TO .n;pyro:tl: JaIIJIaTHT, BCKope MaRK paJpyrnHTCSl H 06mecTBO JIHIlIHTCH ueHHo:tl: YCJIYfH.

B OCTaBllIe:tl:cSl 'IaCTH 3TO:tl: maBbI paCCMaTPHBaJOTCSl 601lee ,D;eTaJlbHO Ha3BaHHble .n;Ba npH­ Mepa HeCOCTOSlTeJIbHOCTH pblHKa, .n;eMOHCTJJHpyeTcH, HaCKOJIbKO OHH pacnpOCTPaHeHbI, H onHCblBaIOTCSl HeCKOJIbKO pa3yMHblX peIIIeHH:tl:, KOTopbIe .n;OJDKHbI npHHHTb JIIO.n;H .n.rrn Toro, 'IT06b1 BbI:tl:TH H3 CHTyaUHH.

B peaJIbHo:tl: JlCH3HH 3a'IacT)'IO B03HHKaeT MHoxeCTBO CHTyaUH:tl:, KOma nOKYIIaTeJIH H npo­

.n;aBUbI BJIMeIOT Heo.n;HHaKoBo:tl: HH<popMauHe:tl:. B 3aBHCHMOCrn OT cHTyaUHH 60JIee OCBe.n;OM­ JIeHHblM MoxeT OKaJaTbCSl KaK nOKYIIaTe.TIb, TaK H npo.n;aBeu.

HanpH¥ep, Kor.n;a pe'Ib H)J;eT 0 TOprOBJIe no.n;ep:lKaHHblMH aBTOM06HJlSlMH, npo.n;aB­ UbI HaMHoro 60JIee OCBe.n;OMJIeHbI 0 HaCTOHlUeM Ka'IeCTBe MaIlIHH, 'IeM nOKYIIaTe­ JIH. C .n;pyro:tl: CTOPOHbI, Kor.n;a pe'Ib H)J;eT 0 CTPaxoBaHHH 3.n;OpOBbSl, HaMHoro JIY'lllIe OCBe.n;OMJIeHbI nOKYIIaTe.TIH CTPaxOBbIX nOJIHCOB, nOCKOJIbKY 0 C06CTBeHHOM Te.TIe H COCTOSlHHH cBoero 3,lJ;0POBbSl HM H3BeCTHO Bce.

Ee3OTHOCHTeJIbHO TOro, KaKaH H3 CTOpoH JIY'Illie HHcPOpMHpoBaHa, CHTYaUHH, no.n;06HbIe BbIlllenepe'IHCJIeHHblM, 3KOHOMHCTbI Ha3bIBaIOT <;HryaUHSlMH aCUMMempu'tnocmu U1lfJJOpMa~uu,

nOCKOJIbKY o.n;Ha CTOpoHa 06JIa.n;aeT 60JIbIIIHM OUbeMOM HH<PoPMaUHH, 'IeM .n;pyraSI.

Bonpoc 06 aCHMMeTPH'IHo:tl: HHcPopMaUHH O'IeHb BaxeH B peaJIbHOM MHpe, no­ CKOJIbKY OHa orpaHH'IHBaeT B03MOJICHOCTH pblHKa. OCHOBHaSI npH'IHHa 3aKJIIO'Ia­ eTCSl B TOM, 'ITO eCJIH BbI 3HlleTe 0 TOM, 'ITO KTO-TO .n;pyro:tl: JIY'lllIe HH<PoPMHPOJilaH, TO 60HTeCb, 'ITO OH HCnOJIb3yeT 3ry HH<popMaUHIO .n.rrn norryq:eHHSl npeHMYlUeCTBa nepe.n; BaMH.

B CJIY'Iae C no.n;ep:lKaHHbIMH aBTOM06HJIHMH nOKYIIaTeJIH 6oHTCSl, 'ITO rrpo)J;aBUbI, KOTOpbIe 3Ha­ IOT, 'ITO HX MaIIIHHbI Ha CaMOM .n;e.TIe IIJIome, 6y.n;yT .n;ep:lKaTb 3TY HH<PoPMauHIO rrpH ce6e, CTapwlCb

.n;OroBOpHTbCSl 0 60JIee BbICOKO:tl: ueHe, KaK eCJlH 6bI HX MalIIHHbI 6bIJIH XOPOIlIHMH. B CJIy'Iae C 0<PoPMJIeHHeM CTPaxOBOro nOJIHCa crpaxoBaSI KOMnaHIDI 6oHTCH, 'ITO JIIO.n;H, KOTOpbIe OCBe.n;OM­ JIeHbI 0 CBoeM BbICOKOM CTPaxOBOM pHcKe, 6y.n;yT rrpeTeH.IlOBaTb Hll rrpHHllWleJICHOCTb K rpyrrrre C HH3KHM CTPax0BbIM pHCKOM, 'IT06bI liM HaJka'IHlIH 60JIee HH3KYIO rrpoueHTHYIO CTaBKy.

B 3aBHCHMOCTH OT Toro, HaCKOJIbKO my6oKo:tl: 6y.n;eT aCHMMeTPH'IHOCTb HH<pOPMaUHH, pblHKH MOryT .n;axe nolIHocTbIO pa3pyrnHTbCSl. 3TO 03Ha'IaeT, 'ITO eCJIH y Bac eCTb 60JIbllIHe COMHeHHSl BTOM, 'ITO npo.n;aBeu no.n;ep:lKaHHoro aBTOM06HJISI MoxeT fHnep60JIH3HpOBaTb ueH­ HOCTb MaIIIHHbI, KOTOPYIO OH CTapaeTCSl BaM npo.n;aTb, B03MOJICHO, BbI He pellIHTeCb ee npH06­ peCTH. 3T0 KaxeTCSl PaJyMHO:tl: npH'IHHo:tl:, HO O.n;HOBpeMeHHO MelliaeT npo.n;axe XOPOIlIHX Ma­ IIIHH, rrOCKOJIbKYBCe nOKYIIaTeJIH BOJIHYIOTCH no nOBO,D;y B03MOJICHOro npH06peTeHHSl IIJIOXHX aBTOM06HJIe:tl:. IIOXOJICHM 06pa30M, eCJIH CTPaxoBbIe KOMrraHHH He MOryT iIa:tl:rn cnoc06 OT­ JIH'IHTb 3.n;0POBbI:tl: CTPaxOBO:tl: pHCK OT HeXeJIaTeJIbHOrO CTPaxOBOro pHClGl, OHH MOryT HaJHa­ 'IHTb BbICOKYIO npoueHTHYIQ CTaBKY BceM CBOHM KJIHeHTaM, nOCKOJIbKY HM nOBCIO,D;y KaJKeTCSl no.n;BOX. 06bI'IH0 3m npHBo.n;HT K TOMy, 'ITO JIIO.n;H C HH3KHM CTPaxOBblM pHCKOM He nOKYIIaIOT CTPaxOBO:tl: nOJIHC no rrpH'IHHe TOro, 'ITO 3HaIOT 0 ee HCKYCCTBeHHO 3aBbIllIeHHo:tl: CTOHMOCTH.

310

lIacTb III. MHlqJ03KOHOMHKa - HaYKa 0 no.e,qeHHH norpe6KTeneH H npe.qnpHflTHR

(~II03TOMY 3anOMHHTe, qTO aCHMMeTpHqHOCTb HH<I>opMaUHfi MO)l{eT npHBeCTH K TOMY, qTQ 3KOHOMHCThI Ha3bIBaJOT HeCOCmORmeJlbHOCmblO pblHICa - CHTYaUIDI, KOma

J])UI TOBapa HJIH yCJIyrH HeT pbIHKa C6bITa. B 3TOM CJTyqae pbIHKa He cYIUeCTByeT no npuquHe TOro, ~o JTIO.nH 60flCH: a B.npyr ,npyrue yqacTHHKH PbIHOqHbIX onepaUHH HH<I>OpMupOBaHbI JTyqme HUK H CMOryr HCnOJTb30BaTb HMelOJUYIOCH y HHX B pacno­ pIDKeHHH HH<PoPMauulO B C06CTBeHHbIX HHTepecax?!

PewaeM npo6neMy 6apaXOnKM: PblHOK nOAep.aHH~XaBTOM06MneM

B 2002 ro,ny 3KOHOMHCT H3 BepJ41IH .nxop.lI;)l{ AxepJTo<l> nOJTyqHJI H06eJTeBCKYIO npeMHIO no 3KOHOMHKe Ja CBOH H3BeCTHbIH Tpy,n "PbIHOK npocro<I>HJIb" (The Marketfor Lemons). Tpy,n nOCBHIUeH aCHMMeTpHqHOH HH<I>OpMauHH H HeCOCTOHTeJTbHOCTH pbIHKa; 3TOT Tpy,n oc06eHHo HHTepeCeH, nOCKOJTbKY B KaqeCTBe maBHoro npHMepa npo<l>eccop AxepJTo<l> HCnOJTb3yeT pbI­ HOK no,nep)l{aHHbIX aBTOM06HJIeHI •

.,J}."'~ PbIHOK no,nep)l{aHHbIX aBTOM06HJIeH HHTepeCeH TeM, qTQ OH cTpa.naeT o~o60H<l>opMOH HeCOCTOfleJTbHOCTH pbIHKa: noqTH Bce no,nep)I{aHHbIe aBTOM06HJIH, BblCTaB­

~ . JTeHHbIe Ha npo,na~, oTBpaTHTeJTbHbI. AxepJTo<l> npaBHJIbHO 06bHcHHeT, qTO Ha

pbIHKe npe06JTa.nalOT MaIUHHbI HH3KOro KaqeCTBa, HJIH 6apaXJTo, nOTOMY qTO aCHM­ MeTpHqHaH HH<I>opMaUHH "y6HpaeT" noqm seex npo,naBuoB, KOTopble XOTHT npo­ ,naTb BbICOKOKaqeCTBeHHbIe no,nep)I{aHHbIe aBTOM06HJIH.

~ TOro ~06bI nOHHTb, ~o Ja seeM 3THM CTOHT, npe,nCTaBbTe, qTO eCTb TOJTbKO TpH Bu,na

no,nep)l{aHHbIX aBTOM06HJIeH: xopomHe, HOpMaJIbHbIe H Moxue• .co CTOpOHbI see OHH BblrlTH­

.nfl o,nHHaKOBO, H ,n~e eCJTH npOBepHTb HX Ha Xo,ny, ,nBHraIOTCH nO~H O,nHHaKOBO, HO HX maBHoe OTJTuqHe COCTOHT B npo,nOJT)I{HTeJTbHOCTH pa60ThI ,no TOro, KaK ,nBHraTeJTb BbIH,neT H3 CTpOH. H3-Ja 3TOH Pa3HHUbI B KaqeCTBe ,nBHraTeJTeH H ,nOJTroBeqHOCTH xopomHe MamHHbI CTO­ fl 15 TbIC. ,nOJTJT., HOpMaJIbHbIe - 10 TbIC. ,nOJTJT., a Moxue - BCero 5 TbIC. ,nOJTJT.

..etAEJlr IIp06JTeMa, KOTOpaH npHBo,nHT K HeCOCTOHTeJTbHOCTH pbIHKa, 3aKlTIOqeHa B aCHM­

(~ MeTpuqHOCTH HH<I>opMaUHH, KOTOpaH cYIUeCTByeT Me)l{,lI;y nOKYTIaTelTHMH Ii npo,naB­ uaMH. B qaCTHOCTH, Tor,na KaK Ka)I{,lI;bIit npo,naBeu 3HaeT, HaCKOJIbKO xopomo pa­ 60TaeT MexaHH3Mero C06CTBeHHoro aBTOM06HJTH, nOKYTIaTeJIH 3TOH HH<I>opMaUHH JIHmeHbI.

KOHeqHO, nOKYTIaTeJTH MomH 6bI npOCTO nonpoCHTb npo,naBUOB 6bITb qeCTHbIMH npH xa­ paKTepHCTHKe KaqeCTBa npo,naBaeMbIX MamHH, H, 6e3ycJIOBHO, MHorne npo,naBUbI - B03MO)l{­ HO, ,n~e 60JIbmaH UK qaCTb - CKa3aJIH 6bI npaB,ny. Ho He CYIUeCTByeT cnoc06a, C nOMOllI:bIO KOTOPOro MO)I{HO y3Hamb, roBOpHT JIH BaM npao,ny. CJIe,nOBaTeJIbHO, KOma KaKoH-HH6y,nb npo­ ,naBeu rOBopHT BaM, qTQ em MamHHa XopomaH, Bce paBHO BbI npo,noJI)l{aeTe BOJIHOBaTbCH, KaK 6bI Bac He 06MaHYJIH.

KaK H TOJIbKO qTO npo,neMOHCTpHpOBaJI BaM, TaKOe 060CHOBaHHoe onaceHHe npHBo,nHT K TOMY, ~o noqrn Bce xopoIIIHe MamHHbI, C KOTOPbIMH ,neHCTBHTeJIbHO Bce B nOPMKe, nOKH,na­ lOT pbIHOK. B pe3YJIbTaTe Ha pbIHKe no,nep)I{aHHbIX aBTOM06HJIeH ,nOMHHHpyroT Moxue MaIIIH­ HbI; KaK CKa3aJI r-H AxepJIo<l>, PbIHOK no,nep)l{aHHbIX aBToM06HJIeH CTpeMHTCH K TOMY, ~06bI

CTaTb "PbIHKOM J])UI npo,na)I{H JIHMOHOB", HJIH nonpocTY rOBopH - 6apaxOJIKoH.

I Ha aHrJIHHCKOM lemon 03Ha1flleT He TOJIbKO "JIHMOH", HO H "npocrocpHIDl" H "6apaxJIO". - llpUMe'l. pea.

fnasa 15. HecocToRTen"HocT" pblHKa...

311

nOlleuy KalieCTSeHHlJle nOAepJKBHHlJle aSTouo6lfnlf "nOKIf,qaIOT" pWHOK

llpe,ncTaBbTe, qTO BhI XOTHre npH06peCTH nO,nepxaHHhIH aBTOM06HJIb, HO He XOTHTe ne­ penJIaqHBaTb 3a Hero JIHIlIHee. BhI OCBe,nOMJIeHhI 0 TOM, qTO eCTb TOJIbKO TPH BH,D;a MaIlIHH: xopOIlIHe, HOpMaJIbHhIe H nJIOXHe. B,n06aBOK BhI y3Haere, qTO o,nHa TPeTb Bcex no,nepxaHHhIX aBTOM06HJIeH XOpOIlIO 3apeKOMeH,D;OBaJIa ce6H Ha ,nopore, o,nHa TPeTb ae,neT ce6H HOpMaJIbHO, a o,D;Ha TPeTb nepe,nBHraeTCH nJIOXO. KaKyro CYMMy B TaKOH CHTYaUHH BhI 6hIJIH 6hI roTOBhI 3anJIaTHTb 3a no,nepxaHHhIH aaToM06HJIb?

IiTaK, yqHTblBaR, 'ITO xopOIlIHe aBTOM06HJIH CTOHT 15 ThIC. ,n0JIJI., aBTOM06HJIH, C KOTOPbl­ MH ace B nopH,D;Ke, CTOHT 10 TbIC. ,nOJIJI., a nJIOXHe npo,naIOTCH no 5 ThIC. ,nOJIJI., a Tll.IOKe TO, 'ITO

BhI He 3Haere, KaKaR H3 MaIIIHH KaKaR, ,naBaHre npe,nnOJImKHM, qTO BhI XOTHTe 3anJIaTHTb 3a Hee He 60JIee 10 ThIC. ,nOJIJI.

1l0qeMY HMeHHO 10 TbIC. ,n0JIJI.? 1l000MY, 'ITO HOPMaJIbHbIH no,nepxaHHhIH aBTOM06HJIb ­ aBTOM06HJIb cpe,D;Hero KaqecTBa - CTOHT HMeHHO CTOJIbKO.

IIoCKOJIbKY y npo,naaua HeT cnoc06a ,nOKaJaTb BaM, HaCKOJIbKO XOpoIlIH ero aBTOM06HJIH, npH OCMOTPe no,nepxaHHoR MaIlIHHbI npoHCXO,D;HT CJIe.D;yIOmHH npouecc: BhI npe,nnOJIaraeTe, qTO BhI6paHHoe BaMH aBTO npHHa.D;JIe.lKlIT K KaTeropHH cpe,nHero KaqeCTBa H n03TOMY CTOHT

10 ThIC. ,n0JIJI. CJIe,nOBaTeJIbHO, BhI npe,D;JIaraere 3a Hero npo,naBuY 10 ThIC. ,nOJIJI. M TOqHO TaK )J(e nOCTYDaIOT Bce ,npyrHe nOKYDaTeJIH, KOTOPhIM nOKa3hIBaIOT no,nepxaHHhIe aBToM06HJIH, nOCKOJIbKY OHH, KaK H BbI, He MOryT onpe,neJIHTb ,neRCTBHTeJIbHoe KaqeCTBO acex BhICTaBJIeH­ HhIX Ha npo,n~no,nepxaHHhIX aBTOM06HJIeH.

Tenepb nOCMOTpHM, KaK pa3HhIe npo,naaUhI pearnpYIOT Ha npe,D;JIOlKeHHhIe 10 ThIC. ,nOJIJI. B JaBHCHMOCTH OT HaCTOHmero CO~TOHHHH HX MaIIIHH.

"ECJIH npo,naaeu 3HaeT, qTO ero MaIlIHHa nJIOXaH H CTOHT acero 5 ThIC. ,nOJIJI., OH C pa,nOCTbIO npHMeT BaIlIe npe,D;JIO)KeHHe.

"ECJIH npo,naBeu 3HaeT, qTO ero MaIlIHHa B nopH,D;Ke, OH TaK)Ke npHMeT BaIlIe npe,D;JIO)KeHHe, nOCKOJIbKY BbI npe,D;JIaraere HaCTOHmyIO ueHY aaTOM06HJIH.

"ECJIH Y npo,naBua XOPOIlIaH MaIIIHHa, OH He 6y,neT comaIlIaTbCH C npe,D;JIO)KeH­ HOR ueHOH ,no rex nop, noKa ero He BhJHY,lUIT K 3TOMY KPaHHHe 06cTOSITeJIbCT­ Ba. OH 3HaeT, qTO ero MaIIIHHa CTOHT 15 ThIC. ,nOJIJI., n03TOMY He JaXOqeT npH­

HHTb npe,D;JIaraeMhIe BaMH 10 ThIC. ,nOM., nOKa OH neHCTBHreJIbHO He 6y,neT nOCTaBJIeH B QTqaHHHOe nOJIO)KeHHe, - HanpHMep, Kor,na eMY HeMe,D;JIeHHO nOHa,n06HTCH HaJIlflIHhIe (B03MO)KH0, qT06hI 3anJIaTHTb HeKOTOphIe KaPTOq­ HhIe ,nOJIrn napHIO no HMeHH Maqere 606).

B pe3YJIbTare no'ITH >Bce xopoIlIHe MaIIIHHhI yxO,D;HT C phIHKa, a OCTaIOTCH JIHIlIb nJIOXHe H HOpMaJIbHhIe. Tenepb H xoqy npo,neMOHCTPHpoBaTb BaM, KaK 3Ta CHTYallWl H3MeHHT )KeJIaHHe nOKYllaTeJIeR npe,D;JIO)KHTb onpell.eJIeHHYIO CYMMY.

ECJIH C phIHKa HCQe3JIH Bce xopOIlIHe MaIlIHHhI, OCTaeTCH IlIaHC 50/50, qTO MaIlIHHa, KO­ TOPYIO BhI npH06perere, OKa)KeTCH HOpMaJIbHOH HJIH nJIOXOR. A B 3TOM cnyqae CKOJIbKO 6hI BhI npe,D;JIo)KHJIH 3a Hee JanJIaTHTb, eCJIH 6hI 6hIJIH nOKYDaTeJIeM? MTaK, C IlIaHCOM 50/50, 'ITO

CTOHMOCTb MaIIIHHhI COCTaBJUIeT HJIH 10 ThIC. ,n0JIJI., HJIH 5 ThIC. ,n0JIJI., B03MO)KH0, BhI npelJ.]Io­ )K}ITe cpe,nHIOIO CYMMY B 7,5 ThIC. ,nOJIJI. Ho eCJIH BhI c,neJIaere 3TO, pLIHOK CTaHeT eme ooJIee lI.HCcP)'HKII.HOHaJIbHhIM.

Ii Bo06me, KaK npo,naBUhI HOPMaJIbHhIX MaIIIHH 6y,nyr pearnpoBaTb Ha npe,D;JIO)KeHHe B 7,5 ThIC. ,n0JIJI.? OHH OTKa)KyTCH OT HHX H TO)KC Ja6epyr CBOH MaIIIHHhI C ~hIHKa.

312 "'aeTb III. MtfKP03KOHOMtfKa - H8YKB ° nose,qeHtftf norpe6wreneii tf npeAnptfffTtfM

- B HTore OKIDKeTCH, qTO C HCqe3HOBeHHeM XOPOlllllX H HOPM8JIbHhIX MalIIHH Ha phIHKe OC­ TaHYTCH JIHlIIb llJIOXHe, T.e. 6apaxJIo. li3-3a rrpo6JIeMbI aCHMMeTP~HOCTHHH4>oPMaUHH pbl­ HOK rro,nepJKaHHbIX aBTOM06HJIeH rrpeBpaTHTCH B PblHOK 6apaxJIa.

I IIOI(ynaTeJIH 3HalOT 06 3TOM, TaK ~o OHH IIpe,llJIaralOT Bcero 5 TblC. ,nOJIJI. 3a KIDK,!J,blH H3

aBTOM06HJIeH, BhlCTaBJIeHHhlX Ha rrpo.LJ;a)Ky. W rrOCKOJIbKY Ha phlHKe rrpHCYTCTBYIOT TOJIbKO llJIOXHe aBTOM06HJIH, rrpo,naBUbl rro~alOTCBOH 5 TblC. ,nOM. W XOTII Ha phlHKe nO,nepxaH­

HhIX aBTOM06HJIeH llJIOXHe MalIIHHhI oueHeHhI rrpaBHJlbHO, ,llJIH XOPOlIIHX H ,naxe HOPMaJIbHbIX MalIIHH phlHKa He cYlIIeCTByeT BOBCe.

3To ,neHCTBHTeJIbHO rrpo6JIeMa, rrOCKOJIbKY JIlO,lJ;H - KaK rroKYIIaTeJlH, TaK H rrpo,naBI.J;bI - XO­ TIlT HMeTb ,neRO C XOPOlIIHMH H HOpMaJIbHhIMH MaIIIHHaMH; BCeX Hac ycTpOMo 6bl, eCJIH 6b1 MhI

MOrJIH pacrrOJIaraTb TaKoit BO:lMOXHOCTbIO. Ho rrOKa He 6y,neT HaH,neHO y,nOBJIeTBOPHTeJIbHoe pe­ lIIeHHe rrpo6JIeMhl aCHMMeTP~oitHH4>oPMau;HH, BCe xopolIIHe MaIIIHHbI OCTalOTCH 3a 6oproM.

BTopa" JKlf3HIJ XOpOWIfX seu.cei: peWeHlfe npo6neAflJl 6apaxonoK

CaMoe BaxHoe B rrp06JIeMe 6apaxOJIOK 33KJlIOqaeTCH B TOM, qro rrpo,naBUbl XOPOlIIHX Ma­ lIIHH He MOryT y6e,nHTb rrOKYIIaTeJIeH, qro HX MalIIHHhI HaCTOJIbKO XOpOlIIH, HaCKOJIbKO rrpo­ ,naBUbl 0 HHX 3HaIOT. IIpo6JIeMa Moma 6h1 pa3pelIIHTbCH, eCJIH 6h1 6hIJI HaMeR crroc06 y6e­ ,nHTb rrOKYIIaTeJIeH, qro XOpolliaH MalIIHHa - Ha CaMOM ,neJIe XOpolIIaH, a MalIIHHa, C KOTOPOH Bce B rropH.LJ;Ke, Ha caMOM ,ne.rre B rrOJIHOM rropH.LJ;Ke.

B CJIe.nYI<>llJ,HX 'lpeX rro.npa3.LJ;e.rrax paCCKa3h1BaeTCH 0 crroc06ax ,nOCTHXeHIDI :nOH ueJIH. 3TH

MeTO,nbl HeCOBeplIIeHHbI, HO rrOCKOJIbKY OHH CJIYXaT orrpe,neJIeHHhlM rro,nTBepx.neHHeM ,nmr rrOKYIIaTeJIeif:, rrOCJIe,nHHe 6y.nYT roTOBbI rrpe,llJIOXHTb ,nOCTaTOQHble CYMMbI ,llJIH TOro, qro6bl Ha pblKe rrOHBHJIHCb npo,naBUhI BhlCOKOKaQeCTBeHHhIX MalIIHH.

npeAno.eHHerapaHTHH

O,nHHM H3 crroco6oB, KOTOPhlM rrpo,naBeU MoxeT rro,nTBep,nHTb rroKYIIaTeJIlO, ~o Y

Hero ,neHCTBHTeJIbHO XOpolliaH MaIIIHHa, HBJIHeTCH rrpeMoxeHHe rrOKYIIaTeJIIO ra­ paHTHH. WMeHHO rapaHTIDI MOXeT CJIYXHTb ,nOKa3aTeJIbCTBOM rrpaB.LJ;HBOCTH CJIOB rrpo,naBua, rrOCKOJIbKY TOJIbKO BJIa.LJ;eJIeti xopollieH MalIIHHbI 3aXOQeT rrpeMOXHTb Ha Hee rapaHTHlO. IIpo.naaeu 3HaeT, qro y Hero XOPOlIIaH MalIIHHa, KOTOpaH He CJIO­ MaeTCH cpa3ynOCJIe TOro, KaK BbI ee KYIIHTe, a 3TO 3HaQHT, QTO eM}' He rrpH.LJ;eTCH IIJIaTHTb 3a ee peMOHT.

C ,npyrOH CTOpoHbl, BJIa.LJ;e.rreu llJIO:'oro aBTOM06HJUl HHKor,na He rrpeMOXHT BaM rrpH06pe­ CTH CTPaxOBOH rrOJIHC, rrOCKOJIbKY OTJI~HO 3HaeT, qTQ ero MalIIHHa MoxeT CJIOMaTbCH, H TOr,na eM}' rrpH.LJ;eTCH OllJIaqHBaTb ee peMOHT.

CJIe,nOBaTeJIbHO, eCJIH KTO-HH6y,nb rrpeMaraeT BaM 33KJlIOQHTb ,noroBOP O'CTPaxOBaHHH, 3TO rroqrn BCer,na 03HaQaeT, qro ero aBrOM06HJIb XopolIIHH. II03TOM}' BC'lpeqaeTCH TaKoe MHOXecTBO ,nHJIepoB, rrpeMaralOllJ,HX 3aKJIlOQHTb ,nOroBOP CTPaxOBaHIDI Ha rro,nepxaHHbIe aBTOM06HJlH, KO­ TOpblMH OHH TOpryJOT. ECJIH ,nHJIepbI rapaHTHlO IIpeMaraTb He CTaHYT, TO BCKOpe MOXeT B03HHK­ MYTh rrpo6JIeMa C 3aCHJIbeM 6apaxJIa, H ueHbI ila aBTOM06HJIH yna,nyr HaCTOJIbKO, qro Ha pblHKe rro,nepJKaHHhIX aBrOM06HJIeit 6y.LJ;}'T rrOKYIIaTbCH H rrpo,naBaTbCH TOJIbKO IIJIOXHe MalIIHHbI.

C03AaHHe penyTa....HH

~r ~pyroH IIYTb pelIIeHIDI rrpo6JIeMhI 6apaxoJIlCH 3aKJIIOQaeTCH B crroco6e Be,neHIDI ,neJI

~ c'" Ha pblHKe TaKHM 06pa30M, QT06h1 rrpo,naBeU Mor C03.LJ;aTb ce6e peIIYTaUHIO rropH­

~ : ,no~oro QeJIOBeKa, 3aKJIIOQaJOllJ,ero QeCTHbIe c,neJIlCH. WMeHHO rr03TOM}' 60JIblIIHH­ CTBO XOPOlIIHX rro,nepJKaHHhIX aBTOM06HJIeH 6h1JIO rrpo,naHO C rrOMOllJ,bIO ,nHJIepOB, CrreUHaJIH3HPYIOllJ,HXCH Ha rrpo,naxe rro,nepJKaHHhIX aBTOM06HJIeH.

rnasa 15. HeCOCTOflTenbHOCTb pwHlCa•••

313

CpaBHHTe areHTCTBO no np0,!l,WKe nO,!l,epXaHHhIX aBTOM06HJIeit C qaCTHoit C,!I,eJIKoit npo­ ,!I,axH HanpHMYJO. KaK BbI ,!I,}'MaeTe, KTO 60JIbIlle 3aHHTepecoBaH B TOM, qT06LI CKa3aTb BaM npaB,!l,y 0 KaqeCTBe aBTOM06HJIH?

llHJIep, 3aHHMalOmHHCH npO,!l,WKeH nO,!l,epXaHHhIX aBTOM06HJIeH, 3apa6aTLIBaeT Ha )l{H3Hb, npO,!l,aBaH nO,!l,epXaHHbIe aBTOM06HJIH, TaK qTO eCJIH OH 3anpoCHT CJIHiliKOM BLICOKYJO UeHY 3a MaUIHHy ITJIOxoro KaqeCTBa, BCKope y Hero B03HHKHYT 60JIbwHe npo6JIeMLI. Kor,!l,a 3Ta Ma­ IIIHHa HaqHeT pa3BaJIHBaThCH, nOKyIIaTeJIb HaqHeT 3JIHTbCH If roBOpHTh BCeM CBOHM ,!I,PY3MIM, qTO ,!I,HJIep ero Ha,!I,yJI. Ilo,!l,06HaH nOTepH penYTaUHH COKpaTHT 6Y,!l,ymHe npO,!l,a)I{H ,!I,HJIepa. Ilonpocry roBOpH, BCKope OH CTaHeT 6aHKPOTOM, eCJIH 6Y,!l,eT CTPOHTb c06CTBeHHYJO peITYTa­ UHIO Ha JDKH.

Ilp~ qaCTHOH np0,!l,WKe CTaporo aBTOM06HJIH np0,!l,aBUY He HYXHO nepe)I{HBaTb 0 HeJallilT­ HaHHOCTH c06CTBeHHofi peITYTauHH, Be,!l,b npo,!l,axa MaIllHH He HBJIHeTCH rJIaBHLIM HCTOqHH­ KOM ero ,!I,OXO,!l,a. ECJIH np0,!l,aBeu-qaCTHHK 06MaHyJI Bac H BbI pa303JIHTeCb H paCCKWKeTe 06 nOM BceM CBOHM ,!I,PY3bHM, 3TO He CHJIbHO nOBpe,llHT eMy, nOCKOJIbKY ero 6H3Hec He CBH3aH C npO,!l,WKe1f: nO,!l,epxaHHhIX aBTOM06HJIeH.

B pe3YJIbTaTe y qaCTHOro npO,!l,aBua cymecTByeT HaMHoro 60JIbIllHH CTHMyJI COJIraTh, qeM y ,!I,HJIepa, KOTOpbIH 3aHHMaeTCH npO,!l,axaMH nO,!l,epXaHHbIX aBTOMaIIIHH H KOTOpLIit neqeTCH o CBoeH peITYTauHH. B pe3YJIbTaTe 6oJIbIllHHCTBO XOPOIllHX nO,!l,epxaHHbIX MaIIIHH np0,!l,aeTCH C nOMomblO ,!I,HJIepOB no npO,!l,WKe nO,!l,epxaHHhIXMaIllHH. (Ho ,!I,WKe npH nOM JIIO,!I,H npo,!l,OJI)l(a­ lOT H)')K,lJ;aThCH B HeKOTopOH nepeCTPaxoBKe, H n03TOMY 60JIbIllHHCTBO ,!I,HJIepOB no npOJIWKe nO,!l,epxaHHhIX MaUIHH TaKXe npeJIJIaralOT rapaHTHH.)

l1ony'teH~e3KCnepTHOA Ol.l.eHK~

IlOCKOJIbKy 6a3HCOM B03HHKHOBeHHH npo6JIeMbI 6apaxOJIOK HBJIHeTCH aCHMMeTpHqHaH HH<popMaUHH, CKenTHqeCKH HaCTPoeHHbIM nOKyIIaTeJIHM MOXHO npeJIJIO)I{HTb JIpyroit MeTOJI peIlleHHH np06JIeMbI - HaHHTb 3KcnepTa, KOTOpLIit npe,!l,OCTaBHT HM He06xo,!l,HMYIO HH<POP­ MauHIO ,!I,JIH TOro, qT06bI OHH CMOfJIH OTJIlfqHTh XOPOIIIYJO MaIIIHHY OT HOPMaJIbHOH H ITJIoxoit. MHOfl1e noK)'iIaTeJIH nO,!l,epXaHHbIX aBTOM06HJIeit HCnOJIb3YJOT 3TOT MeTOJI peIIIeHHH np06JIe­ MbI, KOr,!l,a OHH COMHeBaIOTCH B qeCTHOCTH npo,!l,aBua.

3a OTHOCHTeJIbHO He60JIbIIIYJO IUlary nOIcynaTeJIb MOXeT HaIDITh CO CTOPOHbI KaKoro-HH­ 6y,!l,b He3aHHTepeCOBaHHoro 3KcnepTa - HanpHMep, npO<peCCHOHaJIbHOrO MexaHHKa - JIJIH npOBe,!l,eHHH HHCneKQHH MaIllHHbI H COCTaBJIeHHH nepeqHjJ peMOHTHbIX pa60T, KOTopLIe MO­ fYT nOTpe60BaTbCH B 6JIIDKafillieM 6Y,!l,ymeM. B 3TOM c.nyqae nOKyIIaTeJIb no.nyqaeT 60JIee HC­ HYJO KapTHJ:i:y ,!I,eitcTBHTeJIbHOrO KaqeCTBa aBTOM06HJIH H MoxeT Onpe,!l,eJIHTbCH C npaBKJIbHoit oueHKoit ero CTOHMOCTH.

TeM He MeHee, 3TOT MeTOJI MoxeT He nO,!l,OHTH ,lI)UI nOJIHOrO peIlleHHH npo6JIeMLI aCHM­

MeTpHqHOfi HH<popMaUHH, nOCKOJIbKY BnOJIHe BepOHTHO, qTO ,!I,WKe 3KcnepT He CMOXeT 06­ HapyxHTb 8cezo, qTO MoxeT 6LITb B MaIllHHe He TaK. 3'1'0 CnpaBeAJIHBO JIO TaKofi MepLI, qTO

nOKYnaTeJIH MOryT np0,!l,OJI)l{aTb COMHeBaTbCH, H 3JIeCb MoxeT CKpLIBaTbCH nOTeHUHaJIbHaH B03MOXHOCTb B03HHKHOBeHHH HeCOCTOHTeJIbHOCTH pLIHKa. Il03TOMY MOXHO 3aqaCTYJO Ha­ 6JIIO,!I,aTb, KaK HHCneKQHH, HHHUHHpOBaHHaH nOKyIIaTeJIeM, npoBOJIHTCH B COqeTaHHH C ,npy­ fHMH MeTO,!I,aMH peIlleHHH np06JIeMbI aCHMMeTPlfqHOfi HH<pOPMauHH, TaKHMH KaK BLI,!I,aqa ra­ PaHTHH H np0,!l,WKa C nOMOmblO ,!I,HJIepOB, HMelOIUHX peITYTauHIO qeCTHbIX JIIO,!I,eit.

314 '1acTb III. MHKP03KOHOMHKa - HSYleS 0 nose,qeHHH norpe6Hreneif HnpeARPHflTHif

BblAa'4a CTpaXOBblX nOnMCOB Bcny'4ae, KorAa Henb3f1 onpeAenMTb CTeneHb pMCKa Toro MnM MHoro KnMeHT8

:118.~

1

.. .

C'rpaxoBaH KOMllaHIDI TOxe BCTPe'IaeTCH C IIpoGJIeMo"lt aCHMMeTPH'IHOCTH HH<POP­ MaIJ;HH. Ho IIpoGJIeMa ,B lIaHHOM c.rryqae 3aKJIIO'IeHa B TOM, 'ITO JIIOIIH, IIOKYIIalOmHe CTPaxooo"lt IIOJIHC, BJIa,neIOT 6oJIbWHM, 'IeM CTPaxOBaH KOMIIaHIDI, 06beMOM HH<PoP­ MaIJ;HH 0 cymecTBYIOmHX pHCKax.

IIpelICTaBHM Ce6e3aKJIIO'IeHHe lIoroBopa Ha CTPaxoBaHHe aBTOM06HJljJ. KTO B HeM 60JIb­ we HYXlIaeTCH: xopollme BOlIHTeJIH, KOTophIe elIBa JIH IIOIIa.nyT B aBapHIO, HJIH }I{e BOlIHTeJIH IIJIOXHe, KOTophIe IIOIIa,naIOT B aBapHH peryAApHO? IIoHHTHO, 'ITO lIa}I{e xopOWHe BOlIHTeJIH 6ylIYT CTPeMHTbCjI JaKJIIO'IHTb lIoroBOp 0 CTPaxoBaHHH, IIOCKOJIbKY Bce-TaKH OHH TO}I{e MOryT IIOIIaCTb B ,lJ;TII,'xoTH H He IIO cBoeli BHHe. Ho IIJIOXHe BOlIHTeJIH CTPeMHTCH IIOnyqHTb CTPa­ XOBO"lt IIOJIHC 60JIbIlle, 'IeM xopOWHe, - lIJIjJ TOro, 'IT06bI CTPaxoBaH KOMnaHHH nOMoma HM paCIIJIaTHTbCjI 3a nOCJIelICTBIDI BCex aBapHi{, B KOTophIe, KaK HM H3BeCTHO, OHH nona.nyT no npH'lHHe CBOOro IIJIOxoro YMeHIDI BOlIHTb aBTOMaWHHY.

+9tW11' IIp06JIeMa aCHMMeTPH'lHo"lt HH<pOPMaIJ;HH B03HHKaeT y CTPaxoBhIxKoMnaHH"lt no- l~ TOMy, 'ITO TorlIa KaK Bce BOIIHTeJIH npeKPaCHO 3HaIOT, xopOWHe H3 HHX BOIIHTeJUI

\~ HJIH IIJIOXHe, CTPaxoBhIe KOMnaHHH He MOryT C TaKoif JIerKOCTbIO PaJJIH'lHTb JIH'l­ HhIe Ka'IeCTBa BOlIHTeJIe"lt. ECJIH GbI OHH MOi?JIU HX pa3JIH'IHTb, TO Ha3Ha'IaJIH 6hI XOPOWHM BOlIHTeAAM HH3KYIO npoueHTHYJO CTaBKY CTPaxoBoro nOJIHCa, a IIJIOXHM BOlIHTeJIHM - BhICOKYIO.

Ho nOCKOJIbKY CTPaxoBhIe KOMnaHHH He MOryT PaJJIH'IHTb XOpoWHX H IIJIOXHX BOIIHTeJIeH, OHH cepbe3HO PHCKYIOT 06aHKPOTHTbCH. ',lJ;AA TOro 'lT06hI nOHHTb, KaK 3TO npOHCXOIIHT, npelI­ CTaBbTe, 'ITO CTPaxoBble KOMnaHHH npelIJlO)I{HJIH BceM 6e3 HCKJIIO'IeHIDI BOlIHTeAAM OlIHHa­ KOBO HH3KYIO CTaBKY, KaK eCJIH 6hI OHH Bee 6billH XOPOIllHMH BOIIHTeJIHMH. 3TO 6bI BCKope npHBeJIO KOMnaHHH K GaHKpOTCTBY, nOCKOJIbKY OHH He nonyqHJIH 6bI 1I0CTaTO'IHO npH6bme"lt, 'lTOGhI BhIIIJIaTHTb nOJIaralOIUYIOCH CYMMY BceM IIOnaBWHM B aBapHIO IIJIOXHM BOIIHTeJIjIM.

,lJ;JIH Toro 'lTOGhI H36exaTb 6aHKpOTCTBa, CTPaxoBhIe KOMnaHHH MOryT no"ltTH Ha IIPYTYlO Kpa"ltHocTb, Ha3Ha'IHB BceM BOlIHTeAAM TaKo"lt npoueHT no CTPaxoBKe, KaK eCJIH 6hI Bce OHH 6hIJlH IIJIOXHMH BOlIHTeAAMH. Ho TOr,na XOpOWHM BOlIHTeAAM He3a'IeM 6YlIeT nOKYIIaTb CTPa­ XOBKy, nOCKOJIbKY lIJIjJ HHX OHa 6YlIeT CJIHWKOM lIOPoro"lt. B pe3YJIbTaTe nonyqHTCH, 'ITO CTPa­ XOBble nOJIHChI 6YlIYI' npH06peTaTb TOJIbKO IIJIOXHe BOIIHTeJIH.

B COUHaJIbHOM OTHoweHHH 3TO IIpHBelIeT K O'IeHb IIJIOXHM nOCJIelICTBHHM, nOCKOJIbKY HYXHO, 'lT06hI Ka}I{lIhI"lt BOlIHTeJIb 6hIJI cIIoc06eH npH06peCTH CTPaxOBKY no TaKOH IJ;eHe, KO­ TOpaHlIei{cTBHTeJIbHO 0TPa}I{aeT ero BOlIHTeJIbCKHe cnoc06HOCTH. XopOWHe BOIIHTeJIH lIOJI)l{­ HhI HMeTb B03MO}I{HOCTb IIOJIyqHTb CTPaxOBKY no CnpaBelIJlHBo"lt CTOHMOCTH. 11 nOCKOJIbKY B peaJIbHo"lt }l{H3HH xopOWHe BOlIHTeJIH COCTaBJIjJIOT 60JIbWHHCTBO, CTPaxoBhIe KOMnaHHH TepH­ lOT 60JIbWYIO 'IaCTb IIOTeHIJ;HaJIbHo"lt npH6hIJlH, nOKa OHH H3bICKHBalOT cnoc06 OTlIeJIHTb xo­ pOWHX BOIIHTeJIe"lt OT IIJIOXHX.

PS3,qeneHMe KJJMeHTOB HS rpynnbl ,4/IR TOrO, IIT06b1 MX pS3nMIIHTb

+9"'11/1'

I~

\~

CTPaxoBhIe KOMnaHHH lIOJl)l{HhI nOJIb30BaTbCH napa,noKCaJIbHhIM MeTOIIOM lIJlH BhIxOlIa H3 cHryaIJ;HH, KorlIa OHH He MOryT OnpelIeJIHTb, XopOW HJIH IIJIOX TOT HJIH HHO"lt BOlIHTeJIb. BMeCTO TOro 'IT06bl paCCMaTPHBaTb JIH'IHOCTb KaK TaKOBylO, OHH HmYT nO}:lXOlI K qeJIOBeKY, OCHOBhIBaHCb Ha Tex rpynnax, K KOTOphIM OH MO}l{eT

rnasa 15. HecocrOflrenbHocrb pblHKa...

315

rrpHHlIMeJKaTb. llo,n06HhIA MeTO,n qaCTO rrOMoraeT C'l'paxOBhlM KOMilaHIDIM rro.rry­ qHTb ,nOCTaTOqHO qeTKOe npe,nCTaBlIeHHe 0 TOM, OTHOCHTCR JIH HX KJIHeHT K Xopo­ I1IHM HJIH IIJIOXHM BO,nHTeJUlM.

HarrpHMep, XOPOiliO H3BeCTeH TOT /paKT, qTO M)'JK'IHHhI B B03paCTe ,nO 25 JIeT rrorrMalOT B aaapHH ropaJ,110 qaIIIe, qeM :xceHIIIHHbl ,no 25 JIeT. TaK qTO eCJIH B O/pHC C'l'paxOBOH KOMrraHHH BOif.nyT .nBa KJIHeHTa, O,nHH H3 KOTOPhIX - M)'JK'IHHa 23 JIeT, a ,npyrOH - 22-JIeTHRR :xceHIUH­ Ha, cymeCTByeT BepORTHOCTb, qro MYJKlIHHa HaMHOro xy:xce BO,nm MaIIIHHY, He:xceJIH :xceHIUHHa. CJIe,nOBaTeJIbHO, .nIDI ~HhI 6y,neT yCTaHOBJIeH GOJIee BblCOKHH rrpo.u;eHT C'l'paxOBOro rro­ JIHca.

B no,n06HoH CHryauHH XOPOiliO TO, qTO Ka:lK,LlhIH H3 ,nByx KJIHeHTOB MO:XCeT rronyqHTb C'l'pa­

XOBKY rro 803MOJICHO crrpaBeMHBoit .u;eHe, yqHTblBaR TOT /paKT, qTO B cpe,nHeM M}'X'IHHbI ,nO 25 JIeT rrorrMaIOT B OOJIbillee Ko.JI~eCTBOaaapHH, qeM :xceHIUHHbI ,no 25 JIeT.

B ,neitCTBHTeJIbHOCTH :xce 3TOT XOPOiliHit pe3YJIbTaT - COBceM He 06RJaTeJIbHOe oc­ HOBaHHe .nIDI Toro, qT06h1 CO'l'pY.nHHKH C'l'paxOBhIX KOMrraHHit rrpHHHMaJIH peIlIe­ HIDI, He rrOJIaraRCb Ha co6cTBeHHhle o.u;eHKH CBOHX KJIHeHTOB, a JIHilib yqHTbIBaR TO, K KaKHM rpYIIIIaM Te rrpHHlIMeJKaT. Y C'l'paxOBblX KOMIIaHHH HeT Bbl60pa; KOH­

KYpeH.QIDI 8bmYJICoaem HX rrOCTYIIaTb TaKHM 06PaJOM.

lloqeMY TaK rrpOHCXO,nm? .ll;aBaitTe paCCMO'l'pHM ,nBe C'l'paxoBble KOMrraHHH, o,nHa H3 KO­ TOPblX HCrro.JIb3yeT HH/PopMauHIO 0 ,neJIeHHH Ha rpyrrrrhl .nIDI' yCTaHOBJIeHIDI rrpo.u;eHTa C'l'pa­ XOBOro rro.JIHca. KOMrraHIDI, KOTOpaR He HCrrOJIb3yeT HH/popMa.u;HIO 0 rpyrrrrax, ,no.JI:lKHa yCTa­ HaBJIHBaTb OqeHb BbICOKHe C'l'paxoBbIe rrpo.u;eHTbI, rrOCKOJIbKY OHa OORTeR, qTO Bce ee KJIHeH­ TbI MOryI' OKaJaTbCR IIJIOXHMH BO,nHTeJUlMH. llo,n06HaR c'l'paTefIDI 3aCTaBJUleT Bcex XOPOIlIHX BO,nHTeJIeit H36eraTb TaKYIO KOMrraHHIO, rrOCKo.JIbKY OHH He :xceJIalOT IIJIaTHTb C'l'paxOBOqHbIit npo.u;eHT, IIpe,nHa3HaqeHHbIH ".nIDI IIJIOXHX BO,nHTeJIeit".

A KOMrraHIDI, KOTOpaR yqHTbIBaeT HH/P0PMauHIO 0 rpyrrnax, Mo:xceT npeMO:lKHTb pa3Hhle C'l'paxoBOqHbIe rrpo.u;eHTbI: 60JIee BbICOKHe - .nJIR MOJIO,nbIX M)'JK'IHH, OOJIee HH3KHe - .nIDI

Mo.JIO,nhIX :xceHIUHH. llo,n06HbIit rro,nxo,n rr03BOJUIeT TaKOH KOMIIaHHH 3aKJIIO~KOH'l'paKThl co MHOrHMH XOpoIlIHMH BO,nHTeJUlMH, KOTopbIe He :xceJIaIOT HMeTb ,neJIO C rrepBOit C'l'paxOBOit KOMIIaHHeit, ycraHaBJIHBaIOIUeit e,nHHC;fBeHHhlit BblCOKH:H rrpo.u;eHT .nIDI BCex CBOHX KJIHeHTOB.

B pe3YJIbTaTe OKa3bIBaeTCR, qro C'l'paxoBhle KOMIIaHHH Bcer,na CTapaIOTCR HaHTH crroco6 o.u;e­ HHTb HeH3BeCTHbIit YP0BeHb pHCKa OT 3aKJIIOqeHHR c.nemrn C TeM HJIH HHhlM KJIHeHTOM, OCHO­ BbIBaRCb Ha XOPOiliO H3BeCTHblX xapaKTepHCTHKaX rpYIIII pHCKa, K KOTOphlM rrpHHlIMe:lKHT HX

KJIHeH'r.

3ToT rrpo.u;ec~ Mo:xceT rrpHBeCTH K HeKOTOpbIM ,nOCTaTOqHO HecrrpaBeMHBbIM BbIBO,naM. CaMblit C'l'paHHhlit H3 HHX MO:lKHO C/PoPMYJIHpoBaTb TaK: Mo.JIOJUde My:xcqHHbI, KOTopbIe Xopo­ I1I0 BO.lUIT aBTOM06HJIb, ,n0JDKllhI BbIIIJIaqHBaTb OOJIee BbICOKHit C'l'paxOBOqHbIH rrpo.u;eHT, qeM Mo.JIO,nbIe :xceHIUHHhI, KOTopble BO.lUIT MaIIIHHY IIJIOXO, rrOCKo.JIbKY e,nHHCTBeHHoe, qeM PYKO­ BO,nCTBYIOTCR C'l'paxoBbIe KOMIIaHHH rrpH o.u;eHKe cHrya.u;HH, 3m rrpHHlIMe:lKHOCTb KJIHeHTa K TOMY HJIH HHOMY rro.rry.

Ho TaKaR CHCTeMa BCe :xce nyqIlIe, ,qeM eIUe 60JIee HecnpaBeMHBbIH BapHaHT, Kor,na 8ee xo­ poiliHe BO,nHTeJIH ,no.JI:lKHbI IIJIamTb rrpo.u;eHT KaK IIJIOXHe, qro IIpoHCXO,nm, Kor,na C'l'paxOBbIM

KOMnaHIDIM 3aIIpeIUaIOT HCrr0.JIb30BaTb HH/PoPMauHIO 0 rpyrrrrax .nIDI TOro, qro6bI orrpe,neJIHTb CTenem pHCKa CBOHX KJIHeHTOB. qeM JIyqille C'l'paxoBbIe KOMIIaHHH CMOryI' OTJI~aTbXOpOIIIHX

BO,nHTeJIeH OT IIJIOXHX, HCrr0.JIb3yR HH/P0PMauHIO 0 rpyrrrrax, TeM OOJIee CrrpaBeMHBbIM 6y,neT C'l'paxOBOH rrpo.u;eHT.

316 'Iacn. III. MHICp03KOHOMHKIIHBYKa 0 nose,qfHfHH norpe6lfreneif Hnpe,qnptfflTHif

3anOMHHTe, 'ITO eCTb BO.n;HTeJIH, AJUI KOTOphIX CTPaxoBble KOMnaHHH HMeIOT CaMYIO Ha­ cymHYIO He06xo.n;HMOCTb JicnoJIb3oBaTb HH<P0PMaIJ,HIO 0 rpyrrnax - 3TO TaK Ha3bIBaeMble BO­

.n;HTeJIH-HOBH'IKH. IIoCKOJlbKY crpaxoBble KOMnaHHH He HMeIOT HHKaKHX 3anHceH 06 aBapHll:X HJIH HapyrneHIDIX Bo.n;HTeJIeH-HOBINKOB, eCTb HacTOJlTeJIbHall He06xo.n;HMOCTb B TOM, qT06bI nOCTapaTbClI OTJIHqHTb xopollero BO)I;HTeJIJI OT IIJIOxoro, nOJIb3YllCb HH<popMaIJ,HeH 0 rpyrrnax. qeM 60JIbIIle onblTa BO)lC)l;eHIDI I1pH06peTaeT BO.n;HTeJIb, TeM 60JIbIIleH HH<PoPMaIJ,HeH 06 aBa­ pIDIX H HapyrneHIDIX npaBHJI .n;OpoXHoro .n;BIDKeHIDI pacnOJIaraeT crpaxOBall KOMnaHHll:, KOTO­ pall .n;OJIXHa "npoBeCTH qePTY" MeJK,IJy XOpollIHMH H IIJIOXHMH BO.n;HTeJIllMH.

KSK H36eJKSTIJ nOJKHOrO sw60ps

I1cnoJIb30BaHHe HH<PoPMaIJ,HH 0 rpyrrnax, K KOTOpLIM npHHa.u;JIe:JKHT TOT IDIH HHOH HH)l;H­ BH));, AJUI onpe.n;eJIeHIDI ero HJIH ee JI~HOro CTPaxoBOro pHCKa, - 3TO TOJIbKO qaCTb pellIeHHll: np06JIeMbl aCHMMeTP~OHHH<PoPMaIJ,HH, cymeCTBYIOII.I,eit Mex,ny CTPaxOBblMH KOMnaHHll:MH

H HX KJIHeHTaMH.

HCHO, qro B paMKaX Ka)lC)l;oit rpyrrnbl HaxO.n;HTCR MHOXeCTBO OTJI~aIOIUHXClI.n;pyr OT .n;pyra HH)I;HBH)l;yyMOB. HanpHMep, .n;axe eCJIH MOJIO)l;bleXeHII.I,HHbI B cpe.n;HeM RBJUIIOTClI 60JIee xo­ POIIIHMH BO.n;HTeJIllMH, qeM MOJIO)l;ble MYX'!HHbI, Cpe.n;H HHX BcerM HaH.n.yrclI TaKHe, KOTOpble IIJIOXO BO)I;jJ:T MaIIIHHY. 3To npHBo.n;HT K Cepbe3Hoit npo6JIeMe, H3BecntoH KaK /I0JK:HblU 6bl6op

(adverse selection).

ECJIH CTPaxOBalI KOMnaHHll: onpe.n;eJIlleT pa3Mep CTPaxOBOro B3Hoca AJUI MOJIO)I;bIX xeHIUHH Ha OCHOBe TOro, HaCKOJIbKOqaCTO MOJIO)l;ble :lKeHIUHHbI 6 cpeOHeM nona.u;aIOT B aBapHitHble CH­ TYaIJ,HH, 3aKJIIOqeHHe .n;oroBopa 0 CTPaxOBaHHH 6y.n;eT 60JIee rrpHRJIeKaTeJIbHbtM AJUI TeX MOJIO­

.n;bIX XeHII.I,HH, KOTopble lIRJIJ1IOTClI .n;eHCTBHTeJIbHO IIJIOXHMH BO.n;HTeJIllMH, qeM AJUlTeX MOJIO­

.n;bIX xeHIUHH, KOTOpble XOpOllIO BOMT aBTOM06HJIb.

B pe3YJIbTaTe IIJIOXO yrrpaRJIJllOIUHe aBTOM06HJIeM MOJIo.n;ble xeHIUHHbI 6y.u;yT 60JIee 3aHHTepeCOBaHbI B TOM, qro6b1 3aKJIIOqHTb .n;orOBOp 0 CTPaxOBaHHH, qeM XOpOllIO yrrpaRJIJlIOII.I,He aBTOM06HJIeM. 3'ra TeH)l;eHIJ,IDI H3BeCTHa KaK JIO:lKHbIH Bbl60p, no­ CKOJIbKY B pe3YJIbTaTe cpe)I;H KJIHeHTOB CTPaxOBOH KOMrraHHH H~eCTBYeTHerrponOpIJ,HOHaJlbHO 60JIbIIloe qHCJIO IIJIOXHX BO.n;HTeJIeit.

nOXHbIH Bbl60p - .n;OCTaTOqHO TPy.n;HalI np06JIeMa, nOCKOJIbKY (lHa nHTaeT CaMa Ce6H.

CTPaxOBalI KOMnaHHlI .n;OJIXHa nOBblIIIaTb npoIJ,eHTHble CTaBKH, ytIHTblBalI TOT <paKT, 'ITO C 60JIbllIeit BepoRTHOCTbIO CTP3xOBOH nOJIHC npH.u;yT npH06peTaTb IIJIOXHe BO.n;HTeJIH. Ho Kor.n;a OHa nOBblCHT CTPaxOB()it npOIJ,eHT, npo6JIeMa YCyry6HTClI eII.l,e 60JIbllIe, nOCKOJIbKY 60JIee BbI­ COKHit npOIJ,eHT c.n;eJIaeT crpaxOBKY eIUe MeHee rrpHRJIeKaTeJIbHoit AJUI XOPOllIHX Bo.n;HTeJIeit, a OTCIO.n;a CJIe,uyeT: cpe)I;H no.n;nHcqHKOB KOM;naHHH 6y.u;yT .n;OMHHHpOBaTb IIJIOXHe BO)I;HTeJIH.

O)I;HHM H3 peIIleHHit npo6JIeMbI JIOXHOro Bbl60pa AJUI CTPaxOBOH KOMnaHHH lIBJU1­

@) eTClI ItpeMrnKeHHe 6oJIbIIlOit rpyrrrre JIIO.n;eit o.n;HHaKoBOro npoIJ,eHTa - rrpH YCJIO­ BHH, qro HHKTO He CMoxeT YKJIOHHTbCR OT 3aKJIIOqeHIDI .n;oroBOpa 0 CTPaxOBaHHH. HarrpHMep, B KOJIJIe)I;)Ke, r.n;e 1I npeno.n;aIO, KOMnaHHlI no CTPaxOBaHHIO 3.n;0POBblI npeMO)KHJIaBCeM CJIY)KaII.J,HM O.n;HHaKOBO HH3KHH npOIJ,eHT C yCJIOBHeM, qro Ka­ )lC)l;blit H3 Hac .n;OJI)KeH 3aKJIIOqHTb C HeH KOHTPaKT. TaKoe BCe06IUee npHRJIeqeHHe KJIHeHTOB HHBeJIHpyeT BepoRTHOCTb TOro, qTO B rpyrrne nOJIyqHBllIHX CTPaxOBOH nOJIHC y 3TOH KOMIIaHHH 6y.u;yT .n;OMHHIq)OBaTb 6OJIe3HeHHble JIIO.n;H, nOCKOJIbKY Bce 3)l;opoBble .n;OroBOP TOxe no.n;nHCaJIH.

rnasa 15. HecocroflrenbHocrb pWHl(a...

317