экономика для чайников
.pdfB c.rryqae C PaJIbcPoM u;eHa Ha 6aHaHhI np0.llOJDKlleT nOBhlmaTbCH .llO ypoBHH 1,2 .llOJIJI. 3a cPyHT. no 3TO:A u;eHe ero 60JIee BhlCOKaH HOMHHaJIbHaH 3apa6OTHaH IIJIaTa B 12 .llOJIJI. B qac CHOBa npHHeceT eMY 10 ~yHTOB 6aHaHOB B qac; TaKHM 06pa30M, peaJIbHaH 3apa6o'rHaH IIJIaTa Pam'cPa BepHeTCH Ha HCXO.llHblit ypoDeHb.
"3cPcPeKT 6YMepaHra", .lleMOHCTPHpyeMhlit peaJIbHoit 3apa601'H0it IIJIaTOit, HMeeT 06IIJ;Hit
CMhlCJI. nOCKOJIbKY 3KOHOMHKa B03BpamaeTCSl K npOH3BO.llCTBy Ha ypoBHe r, BaM ~O
n06Y.llHTb pa60qHX nOCTaBHTb .llOCTaTOqHOe KOJI~eCTBO TPY.lla .llJIH npOH3BO.llCTB;i Ha ypoBHe r, H He 60J1bme. Pa60qHe nO.ll06HO paJIJ4>y JaXOTSlT npe.llOCTaBHTb:nO KOJI~eCTBOTPY.lla B
TOqKe A 3a peaJIbJlYIO 3apIIJIaTY B 10 cPyHTOB 6aHaHOB B qac. nOCJIe TOro KaK 3KOHOMHKa ne peH,n.eT B TOqKf C, OHH CHOBa JaXonIT npe.llOCTaBHTb 3m KOJIHqeCTBO TPYM 3a TY .lKe peaJIbJlYIO 3apIIJIa'lj'.
.sICHO, qTO He BCSlKHit pa60qH:A 3aIJ;HKJIeH Ha 6aHaHax, KaK PaJIJ4>. Ho H Ha,lleIOCb, 06mHit CMhlCJI BaM nOHSlTeH: eCJIH H 3apa6o'rHaH IIJIaTa, H u;eHhl nO.llHHMYTCH Ha 20%, peaJIbHaH 3apa 60THaH IIJIaTa OCTaHeTCH HeH3MeHHOH H, CJIe.llOBaTeJIbHO, KO~eCTBO TPY.lla, npe.llOCTaBJIeH HOro pa60qHMH, OCTaHeTCH HeH3MeHHhlM.
II,·~r
~ ,.
no 3Toit npHqHHe rocY.llapcTBeHHaH nOJIHTHKa CTHMYJIMpOBaHHH, npH6JIH3HreJIb HaH CXeMa KOTOpoit nOKa3aHa Ha pHC. 7.2, B pe3YJIbTare KOTOpoit KPHBaH COBOKYD HOro cnpoca CMemaeTCH H3 ADo B AD], He MO.lKeT nOCTOHHHO HapaIIJ;HBaTb KOJIHqe-
CTBO TPY.lla, npe.llOCTaBJIHeMoro HaeMHhIMH pa6o'rHHKaMH. 3Ta nOJlHTHKa He MO.lKeT nOCTOHHHO YBeJI~BaTbpeaJIbJlYIO 3apa6oTHYJO IIJIaTY pa6o'rHHKaM. JIyqme BCero OHa .lleitCTByeT B KPaTKOCpOqHOM nepHO.lle, ,llJIHmeMCH pOBHO CTOJIbKO, CKOJIbKO H}')KHO 3KOHOMHKe .llJIH TOro, qro6h1 nepeitTH H3 A B B H B C.
BbI MO.lKeTe n0.llYMaTb, qTO, HeCMOTPH Ha Bce BhlmenepeqHCJIeHHOe, .lla.JKe BpeMeHHoe . YBeJIHqeHHe 3aHHTOCTH H poeT BhlnycKa yxe .llOCTaTO~Oxopomo H qro rocY.llapCTBO .llOJDICHO npo.llOmKaTb H,llTH Bnepe.ll H YBe~HBaTb COBOKYDHhlit cnpoc H3 ADo BAD]. K CO.lKaJIeHHIO, MHe npH,lleTCH pa30qap0BaTb BaC: eCJIH JIIO,llH Harrepe.ll 6y.llYT OCBe.llOMJIeHbI 0 nO.ll06Ho:A CTH MYJIHU;HH, 3KOHOMHKa MO.lKeT Cpa3Y .lKe nepeitTH H3 ABC,. qro cOKPaTHT cnoc06HocTb CMe meHHoro COBoKYDHoro cnpoca cTHMYJIHpoBaTb 3KOHOMHKY .lla.JKe BpeMeHHo.
HeAOCT8TKM CTMMyIIMpOB8HMR: 'ITO I1pOMCXOAMT,
KOrA8 BCe O)l(MA81OT cTMMyn8
B Dpe.llhl.llYllleM p~eJIeH 06'bHCHHJI, noqeMY YBeJIHqeHHe COBOKYDHOro cnpoca, HMeIOmee 'CBoeit U;eJIbIO YBeJI~ BbInycK BhIille r, MO.lKeT .lleJIaTb 3m JIHillb BpeMeHHO - .llO rex nop, nOKa He npoH30it.n.eT KOppeKTMpOBKa u;eH. B 3TOM pa3.lleJIe H n0Ka.lKY BaM, qro u;eHhI MOryT 6bITb OTKOppeKTHPOBaHhl HaCTOJIbKO 6h1CTPO, qro CTHMYJIHpoBaHHe MO.lKeT BOOOme He nOBJIH
HTb Ha YBeJIHqeHHe BhlnyCKa, .llaxe BpeMeHHO.
BaHOCTb JlCeCTICIfX qeH
KaK H nOKa3aJI Ha pHC. 7.2, BCHKoe YBeJIHqeHHe BbInycKa nOCJIe nepeMemeHHH KPHBOit 00 BOKYDHOro cnpoca BnpaBO H3 ADo B AD] 3aBHCHT OT .lKeCTKOCTH u;eH KP8TKOCPO~oronepHO.lla. ):(PyrHMH CJIOBaMH, 3KOHOMHKa nepe.llBHraeTCH H3 TOqKH A B TO~ B B.llOJIb ropH30HTaJIbHOH KPHBOH COBOKYDHOro cnpoca KPaTKOcpoqHoro nepHO.lla, SRASo. TOJIbKO eCJIH YPODeHb u;eH 3a cPHKCHpoBaH Ha Po B KPaTKOCpOqHOM nepHO.lle.
B maDe 6 H coo6maIO MHoxeCTBO cPaKTOB, CBH,llereJIbCTBYIOmHX 0 TOM, qro BO BpeMH pe u;eCCHH u;eHhI CHHXaIOTCJI C 60JIbmHM TPY.llOM. B qaCTHOCTH, Ha npe.n.npHHTIDIX He JII06SlT cOKPamaTb 3apa60rnyIO IIJIaTY H 06HXaTb CBOHX pa60qHX. PyKoBO,llHTeJIJlM <I>HpM OTJIHqHO
140 lIacn II. MalCp03KOHOMlfKB - HBYKB 06 3KOHOMIf"eCKOMpocTe If CTB6lfnbHOCTII
H3DeCTHO, 'ITO B CJIY'lae COICpameHHJI 3apITJIaTbl pa60'1Re Pa303JUlTCH R OTKa.xcyrcjl ycep,ll,HO 'It>YnHTbCjI, B pe3yJIbT8re qero cHIDKellHe npOtJ,yKTHBHOCTR eme 60JIbme ycyry6HT cmyamno C nonyqeHHeM npH6b1JI11.
B pe3YJIhTare B 3KOHOMHKe Ha6mo.u.aeTCjI JlCeCmlCOCmb 3apa6omHOU 1I/Iombl npu CHU3ICeHUU, nO,ll, KOTOPblM 3KOHOMHCThI nO,ll,p83YMeDaIOT, qyo HOMHHaJIbHM 38pa6oTHM ITJIaYa o6hI'lHO He yMeHbmaeTCH. KaK jI ofu,jlCIDIIO B maBe 6, CHIDKeHHe :lICeCTKOCTH 3apa6oTH0i!: ITJIaThI npHBO ,lI,HT K JlCecmlCOcmu l4eH npu CHUJlCeHUU, nOCKOJIbKY cPHpMbI He MOryI' CHH3HTh u;eHhI,lI,O ypoBUjI HIDKe CTOHMOCTR npoH3BO,lI,CTBa npotJ,yKTa, eCJIH OUR XOTJIT nOJIY'laTb npH6bIJIb H OCTaBaTbCjI B 6H3Hece. (nOMHHTe, qyo CTOHMOCTb TPY,lI,a B 60JIblllHHCTBe BH.nOB 6H3Heca COCTaBJljleT CllMYJO 60JIbIIIYJO qaCTb npOH3BO,lI,CTBeHHbIX 38TP8T. ECJIH cPHpMbI He MOryr cOKPaTHTb 3apa6oTHyIo Mary, OHH He MOryI' cOKPaTHTb u;euy Ha npoH3BO,lI,HMbli!: HMH npOtJ,yKT.)
OTCyrcTStre JKeCTKOCTtr qeH nptr nOSwWeHtrtr
3aMeTbTe, qTO B npe,ll,bI,lI,yI:UeM p83,ll,eJIe jI rOBOpHJI TOJIbKO 0 xeCTKOCTH npH CHIDKeHHH; jI HHqero He roBOpHJI 0 u;eHax HJIH 38pITJIaTax, KOTOpble n9BblwaIOTCH. B ,lI,ei!:CTBHTeJIbHOCTH B 3KOHOMHKe eCTb OqeHb MaJIO cPaKTOPOB, KOTOpble MOryI' nOCJIYX<:HTh npHqHHOi!: xeCTKOCTH 38pa6oTH0H ITJIaThi npu n06b1WeHUU HJIH XeCTKOCTH u;eH npu n06b1WeHUU.
KaK P83 Ha060pOT, 3apITJI8TbI H u;eHbI ,lI,OCTaTOqHO CB060,ll,HO nOBblmaIOTCSI npH pocre cnpoca OTHOCHTeJlbHO npe,nJIO:llCeHHSl. ):lenoBble H TPY,lI,OBble comameHM MOryI' Ha HexoTOpoe BpeMjl orpaHHqHTb poeT u;eH H 3apa60THOH nJIaThI, HO KaK TOJIbKO CpoK 3THX KOMTpaKTOB HC reqeT, u;eHbl H 38pa6oTHM ITJIaTa n~8IOTB03MOX<:HOCTb CBo6o,ll,HO paCTH.
OJKtr,QBHtrll CTtrMynllLltrtr
(}rCyTCTBHe :lICeCTKOCTH u;eH npH HX nOBblweHHH CO,ll,ep:lKHT B ce6e ,lI,Be OqeHb B8X<:Hble BemH ,lI,JIjI BCSlKOro rocY,lI,apCTB8, nbIT8IOlIJ;erocjl CTHMYJIHPODaTb 3KOHOMHKY Ha npOH3BO,lI,CTBO 6oJIbmero o61.eMa BblnyCKa, qeM npH nOJIHOH 38HjITOCTH
(~ |
~ |
ECJlH u;eHbl H 38pa60THM WIaYa CMOryr 6b1CTPO nO,ll,IDITbCSI, 3KOHOMHKa 6Y,lI,eT |
|
OqeHb He,ll,OJIro npoH3BO,lI,HTb 60JIbme Y. 3TO 3HaQHT, qyo 3KOHOMHKa 6Y,lI,eT |
|
|
,lI,BHraTbCjI H3 TOQKH ABC (CM. pHC. 7.2) HaCTOJIbKO 6b1cTPO, qro CTHMYJIHPO |
|
|
|
BaHHe npHBe,ll,eT K nOBblweHHIO o6beMa BblnycKa H 3aUjlTOCTH (60JIbme Y) |
|
|
TOJIbKO Ha OQeHb KOpoTKoe BpeMjl. |
|
~ |
ECJIH JIIO,lI,H ,lI,oratJ,aJOTCjI 0 HaqaJIe CTHMYmnnm, TO CTHMYJI (KOTOpblit llbITaeTCH |
|
|
no,ll,HJlTb OObeM BblnyCKa BhlIUe ypoBUjI Y) 6Y,lI,eT JIHillb nopouaTh HH<1>.AAIJ;HIO |
|
|
H He npHBe,ll,eT K KaKOMY 6b1 TO HH 6b1JIO YBeJIHqeHHIO BbInyCKa. ):lpyntMH CJIO |
|
|
DaMH, eCJIH JIIOMM Y,lI,aCTCjI npe.u.ycM()'I'peTb ~eUReCOBOxynHOro cnpoca, |
|
|
3KOHOMlOCa MOXeT nepenpblQlyTb npjIMO H3 TO~A B TOqKY C, YaK 'ITO ypo |
|
|
DeHb u;eH B03paCTeT ,ll8:lKe 6e3 BpeMeHHoro ~eHHjIBblnycKa. |
AmI TOro 'IT06b1 y6e,ll,HTbCjI B HCTHHHOCTH 3TOro yrnep}f{,ll,eHHjI, npeMOJIO:llCKM, 'ITO ro cY,lI,apcTBo 3apaHee 06'bjlBHJIO 0 npoBe,ll,eHHH 60JIbWOro KOJIHqeCTBa CTHMYJIHpYIOmHX Mep, KOTOpble nepe,ll,BHHyT COBOKYDHbli!: cnpoc H3 ADoB AD} B reQeHHe HeCKOJIbKHX MeCjlu;eB (CM. pHC. 7.2). nOCKOJIbKY HaeMHble pa60THHKH H 6H3HecMeHhl HMeIOT B03MOX<:HOCTb H3yqHTh MSK
P03KOHOMHKY TaK :lICe xopomo, KaK H nOJIHTHKH, 3aHHMaIOmHe rocY,lI,apcTBeHHble ,lI,OJIX<:HOCTH, OUR nOHHMaIOT, qro e,ll,HHCTBeHHblM ,lI,OJII'OCPO~3$PeKTOM HacrynaIOmero CTHMYJIa 6Y,lI,eT poeT u;eH OT Po,ll,O Pl'
K TOMy :lICe, pa60qHe nOHHMaIOT, qro peaJIbHM 38pa60THM WIaTa OCTaHeTCjI HeH3MeH HOB B ,lI,OJIrocpOqHOM nepHO,ll,e, nOTOMY qyo HX HOMHHaJIbHM 38pWIaTa H CTOHMOCTb :lICK3HH
rnasa 7. Bop,,6a C ICpH3IfCaAfH••• |
141 |
(orrpe,lleIDIeMlUl ypOBHeM n;eH) B03paCTYf O,llHHaKOBO. B pe3YJIbTaTe OHH OC03HllIOT, 'ITO B ,llOJI roCPOqHOM rrepHO,lle CTHMYJI Bo06m:e He rrOMoxeT HM. 8x e,llHHCTBeHHWI Ha.zJ;eJK,ll,a Ha nony qeHHe npH6hIlIH OCHOBhlBaeTCH BCen;eJIO Ha lCpaTKOCpOqHOM nepHO,lle, KOr,lla HOMHHaJIbHWI 3apa60THWI IIJlaTa ,llOJIXHa rrO,llHHTbCH, a ypOBeHb n;eH ,llonxeH OCTaTbCJI npeXHHM. ,[lPyrHMH CJIOBaMH, OHH Ha,lleIOTCH H3BJIe% Bhlro)ly OT ,llBHXeHHH H3 ro~A B roqKY B (CM. pHC. 7.2).
Ho rrpe,llnpHHTHH He XeJIalOT OCTaBaTbCJI B )lypaKaX. 8M He XOqeTCJI YMeHbWaTb npH6hIlIb H3-3a nOBhlweHHH 3apa60THo~IIJlaThlf KOr,lla n;eHhl Ha roaaphl H yc.rryrH OCTaIOTCJI HCH3MeH HhlMH. II03ToMY OHH ,lle~CTBYIOT "Ha ynpeJK,ll,eHHe". IIoCKOJIbKY n;eHhl - co BpCMeHeM ,llOJIXHhl nO,llHHTbCJI OT Po,110 PI H 3apaOOTHWI IIJlaTa - Toxe co BpeMeHeM - ,llOJPKHa no,ll HHTbCJI Ha TOT xe ypOBeHb, l1>HPMhl ynpeJK,ll,alOT YBeJI~eHHe 3apa6OTHO~ IIJlaTbI, rrO,llHHMWI
n;eHhl HaCTOJIbKO 6hlCTPO, HaCKOJIbKO 3TO B03MOJKHO.
HHqTO He MewaeT rrpe,llrrpHJITHJIM YBeJI~HTbn;eHhl, rrOCKOJIbKY B 3KOHOMHKe HeT H~ero
TaKoro, ~O Morno 6hl JaCTaBHTb pacTYIUHe n;eHhl OCTaHOBHTbCJI. II03TOMy, eCJIH IIpe)llIpIDITIDl
3aMeTHT, qTO CTHMYJI HaqHHaeT ,lldl:CTBOBaTb, OHH npOCTO nOCTapaIOTCJI K8.K MOJKHO 6hlCTPee
rrOBhlCHTb n;eHhl C TeM, qT06hl Y,llOCTOBepHTbCJI: n;eHhl H 3apa6OTHWI IIJlaTa nO,llHHMaIOTCJI C O,llHH8.KOBO~ CKOpOCTbIO. B pe3YJIbTaTe ypoBeHb n;eH nepenphlrHeT OT
KOHeqHO, npe,llnpHJlTHH nOBhlwalOT 3apa6OTHYIO IlJIary Ha TOT xe caMhl~ npOn;eHT. qro H POCT n;eH, C TeM, qT06hl YMPXHBaTb ypOBeHb peaJIbHO~ 3apa60THQ~ IIJlaThl Ha npeXHeM ypOBHe. OHH XOTJlT C03,llaTb cHryan;HIO, npH KOTOPO~ Y pa60qHX COXpaHJITCJI np~HHhl )lJlJl IIpOH3BO,llCTBa npO)lyKTa Ha ypOBHe r.
Kax Bhl BH,llHTe, eCJIH rocY,llapCTBO CTapaeTCJI CTHMYJIHpoBaTb npoH3BO,llCTBO Ha ypOBHe r H eCJIH CTHMYJI nOHHT H npHHHT KaJIC,lI,hlM B 3J(OHOMHKe, OH B006m:e MoxeT He nO,lle~CTBOBaTb.
UeHhl H Japa60THlUl IIJlaTa MOryT npocro nepenphlmyTb H3 roqKH A B ro'lK)' C, 'ITO 6Y,lleT 3Ha qHTb - CTHMYJI He .cnpaBHJlCJI C 3a.zJ;aqe~ H CTHMYJIHpOBllHHJI He npOH30IWlO, nOCKOJIbKY npo
)lyKT OCTaJICJI Ha ypOBHe r, ror,lla K8.K n;eHhl H 3apa6oTHlUI IIJlaTa O,IUIOBpeMCHHO B03pocJIH.
PBLjHOHBn"Hwe OJKH.QBHHII |
. I |
|
|
||
|
~eHOMeH, KOroPbrj!: JI OnHCaJI B npelIbUtYllleM pa3,lleJIe. JlBJIJleTCJI npHMepOM PO~UO |
|
, |
HQ//bHblX O3ICuoaHUU - 3TOT TepMHH 3KOHOMHCTbI HCnOJIb3Y1OT )lJlH OnHCaHHJI roro, |
€~K8.K B O)J(H,llaHHH 6y)lyWHX c06hITH~JIIO,llH pan;HOHaJIbHblM cnoc060M MeHJIIOT CBOe TeK}'Wee nOBe,lleHHe. B 3TOM cnyqae npe,llnpHJITHJI (P8.IJ;HOHaJIbHhlM cnoc060M) He Me)lJleHHO pewalOT nOBblCHTb n;eHhl, KOr,lla 06HapyxHBaIOT, ,'ITO rocy,llapCTBO HaqHeT YBeJIHqHBaTb COBOKYIIHblit CPPOC. CMeIlllUl ero H3 ADo B ADI •
B caMOM ,lleJIe e,llHHCTBeHHhlA pa3YMHhlA cnoc06 .aeitc'nIHJI )lJlH npe.anpHJITHit - 3T0 He
Me.llJleHHOe nOBhlweHHe n;eH Ha CBOIO npQllYKIJ;HlO, nOCKOJIbKY eCJIH n;eHhl OCTaHyTCH Ha ypOB He Po, TO npH6hIlIb aBroMa~ecKHCOlCpaTHTCJI; 3TO npOH30il:)leT. e'CJIH 3KOHOMHKa nepeil:)leT
H3 TOqKH A B TOqKY B (KOr,lla HOMHHaJIbHlUI Japa60THlUI 'IIJlaTa nOBblCHTCJI, a n;eHhl OCTaHYTCJI IIpeXGlHMH). He3aMe)lJlHTeJIbHO nOBIdCHB n;eHbI H nepe,llBHHYB 3KOHOMHKY HanpJlMYJC) H3 TOq KH A B TOqKY C, OHH MOryT H36exaTb nO,ll06HoA CHTY8.IJ;HH.
o.z:lHa H3 caMbIX BaxHbIX TeOPHj!: MaKP03KOHO MHKH. nOTOMY qTO OHa CBH,lleTeJIbCTByeT 0 cTPorHX orpaH~eHHJIXB03MOJKHOCTH rocy,llapCTBa KOHTPOJIHpOBaTb 3KOHOMHKY. JIIO.ztH He MOryT CH,lleTb Ha O,llHOM'MeC Te, nO,!J,06HO paCTeHHHM, Kor,ZJ,a npaBHTeJlbCTBO o61>JIBJIJleT 0 nOJIHTHKe H3MeHCHHj!:. OHH H3MeHJIlOT CBoe nOBe,!J,eHHe. 8 HHor,!J,a, KaK B CJIyqae, KOTOPblj!: JI OIIHCaJI B npe,ZJ,bI)lyl.IJ;eM pa3,lleJIe. H3MeHeHHe B HX POBe,lleHHH nOJIHOCTbIO p83pywaeT cnoc06 HOCTb roCy,ZJ,apCTBa ,!J,OC~b cBOeA n;eJIH - CTHMYJIHpoBaHHJI 3KOHOMHKH.
142 |
"SCTIJ II. MSKp03KOHOMlfKS - HSyKS 06 3KOHOMMlfeCKOM poere If cTaflfnlJHOCTIf |
He6onIJwa" HHf/m"..,H" MOJICST nOMO'Ilt
nO.IIICHTIt ypO,IiSHIt 3aHIITOCTif
aKOHOMHCTbI MHoro pa3MblWllRllH o TOM, KaK llY"twe npOBOAHTb MOHeTapHYIO nOllHTH
KY. HHTepecHo, 'ITO MHorHe Ha HHX npHwnH K C118,ll,YlOllleMY BblBOAY: OHa AOll>KHa 6b1Tb CTMMYllHPylOllle'l HaCTOllbKO, 'lTOObi BCerAB coxpaHRllaCb yMepeHHaR, B 1-2%, HHQlllRIlMR. HAeR TaKo'l YMepeHHo'l HHQlllRIlHH nOMora· eT ycnoKoHTb BOllHeHMR, BoaHHKalOlllHe Ha pblHKe TpYAa, npeAocTaBMB npeAnpHRTHRM HeaaMeTHbI'l cnoc06 YBellH'leHHR npHObillH, KOrAB OHH nepe>KHBalOT BpeMeHHoe CHH>Ke HHe npo,II,B)K.
KaK R nOA'lepKHBalO B maBe 6, aapa6oT HaR nllaTa 06b1'lHO npoRBJ1ReT >KeCTKOCTb npH CHH>KeHHH: eCllH Bbi YMeHbwaeTe aapa60T HylO nllary pa60'lHX, OHH Ha'lHHaIOT pa60TaTb xy>Ke. 8 pe3yi1bTaTe 06b1'lHo'nollY"taeTcR C11e· AYlOlllee: KorAa cnpoc Ha npoH3BeAeHHylO npoAYKIlHIO CHH>KaeTCR, a AnR BOCCTaHOBne HHR npH6b111bHOCTM HY>KHO YMeHbWMTb CTOH MOCTb TPYAB, MBHeA>Kepbl yaonbHRIOT 'laCTb pa60'lMX, OCTasnRR OCTaBWMMCR cTapble 3apnnaTbl, - BMeCTO Toro 'lT06b1 YAep>KHBaTb Bcex pa60'lHX Ha 60nee HH3KMX aapnnaTBX,
80 BpeMR HHQlllRIlHH KOllH'leCTBO BblHY )l(,ll,8HHblX YBollbHeHM'l COKpaLl\aeTCR, nOTO My 'ITO HHQlllRIlMR npHBOAHT K nOBblweHHIO npoA8)I(HbiX lleH Ha npOH3BeAeHHble TOBapbl. EC11H B 3TO >Ke BpeMR MeHeA>Kepbl npOAOll>K8 lOT YAep>KHBaTb HOMHHallbHYIO 3apa60THYIO nllary HeH3MeHHo'l, npHObillb yBenH'lHBaeTCR H norpe6HOCTb B YBOllbHeHHRX CHH>KaeTCR.
TeM He MeHee, peallbHaR 3apa60THaR nllaTa TPYARIllHXCR OYAeT COKpaI!.\8TbCR. aTO npOHcxOAHT nOTOMY, 'ITO TorAa KaK HOMH HBnbHaR (T.e. Bblpa>KeHHaR B AeHe>KHOM 3K BHBBneHTe) 3apa60THaR nllaTa coxpaHReTCR HeH3MeHHo'l, CTOHMOCTb >KH3HH npOAOlllKa eT paCTH H3-3a HHQlllRIlHH. Ho B pe3YllbTaTEl Toro, 'ITO HHQlllRIlHR cnoc06cTByeT npl1l6b111b HOCTH npep,npMRTM'l, Ha6nlOAaeTCR MeHbwaR nOTpe6HOCTb B yBOnbHeHHH pa60'lHX. HTaK, XOTR pa60'lMe M Hecyr HeKOTopble nOTepH, Ha611IOABR CHM>KeHHe cBoe'l peanbHo'l 3ap nnaTbI, Bce >Ke no 60nbWOMY C'lery OHH .BbI
. HrpblBalOT, nOTOMY 'ITO pa60ry HM coxpaHMTb YA8eTcR. 8 npoTHBHOM cllY"tae OHH MomH 6b1 6b1Tb yBolleHbI.
Kor.o;a B oCTaBwelcR qaCTH 3TOI rJISBhl Bhl npo'fI'eTe MOH .ll8JlhHeRwHe, 60JIee .lleT8JlhHhle 06l»1CHeHHR MOHeTapHoR H cPHCK8JlhHOR nOJIHTHKH, Bhl 06HapyxHTe .o;pyrHe npHMephl pa UHOHaJIhHhlX O)l(}fJ1aHHR, orpaHHqHBalOlUHx 3cPcPeKTHBHOCTh rocy.o;apcTBeHHoR nOJIHTHKH. 06R3aTeJIhHO OTMeThTe .llJIj[ ce6R, K8K B K8JK.llOM OT.o;eJIhHOM ~ae H3MeHeHHR B nOBe.o;eHHH JIIOJJ:eR CHIDKalOT BJIHRHHe nOJIHTnqeCKHX HHHUHaTHB rocy.o;apcrna.
tpI4CI&a.J.blta.R IIOJ.uAl4I&a
~cc.t1JUClCaJlbHOR nOllumUICQ CBR3aHa C H8JlOroBOR cHcTeMoR H pacxo.o;aMH rocY.llapCTBa.
Ii " c' OHa HMeeT OTHoweHHe K MaKp03KOHOMHKe, nOCKOJIhKY COBpeMeHHhle rocy.o;apcrna
~ HMelOT MHOJKeCTBO B03MOJKHOCTeR .llJIj[ yaennqeHHR COBOK)'llHOro cnpoca C nOMO lUhlO cPHCK8JlhHOR nOJIHTHKH. 3TH H3MeHeHHR pa3.lleJIj[IOTCR Ha .o;Be rJI8BHhle KaTe ropHH.
'0/ |
YBeJIH'IeHHe COBOKYUHOro cnpoca HenpRMhlM cnoc060M - |
nyreM CHHJKeHWI |
|
HaJIorOB - TaK, qro nOCJIe ynJIaThl H8JlOroB norpe6HTeJIH HMelOT 60JIhWHR |
|
|
.o;OXo.o; H MOryr norpaTHTh ero Ha npH06peTeHHe 60JIhwero KOJIHtJeCTBa TOB8 |
|
|
POB H yc.rryr. |
|
0/ |
YBeJIH'IeHHe COBOKYUHOrO cnpoca npRMhlM cnoc060M - |
nyreM npH06peTe |
|
HHR 60Jlhwero 'IHCJIa TOBapoB H yc.rryr. |
|
rnll' 7. SopIJ6, C KPlfSHC'MIf... |
143 |
llepBaH KareropHH BKJIIO'IaeT B Ce6H YMeHhllIeHHe rocy,llapCTBeHHhIX ,llOXO,llOB, a BTOpaH BKJIIO'IaeT YBeJIH'leHHe rocy,llapCTBeHHhIX paCXO,llOB. llOCKOJIhKY ,lle«pHUHT rocy,llapcTBeHHoro 6IO,ll)KeTa onpe,lleJIHeTCH KaK ,llOXO,llbI OT HaJIoro06JIo:lKeHHH MHHYC paCXO,llbI, 06a BH,lla «pHC KaJlhHOA nOJIHTHKH HanpaBJIeHhI Ha YBeJIH'leHHe ,lle«pHUHTa rocy,llapCTBeHHoro 6IO,ll)KeTa. 3TOT «paKT O'leHh Ba:lKeH, noTOMY 'ITO 60JIhllIoA H nOCTOHHHhIA ,lle«pHUHT rocY,llapcTBeHHoro 6IO,ll:lKeTa MO)((eT npHBeCTH KO MHorHM 3KOHOMH'leCKHM npo6JIeMaM, BKJIlO'IaH HH«PJIHUHIO.
B pe3YJIhTaTe 60H3Hh 60JIhllIOro ,lle«pHUHTa 6IO,ll)KeTa C,llep:lKHBlleT piuMephI HHHUHaTHB «pHC KaJlhHoA nOJIHTHKH.
Kor,lla BhI 6Y,llere '1HTaTb 0 «pHCKaJlhHOA nOJlllTIlKe B nOCJIe.n.yIOlI.J;HX ~eJIax, nOM HHTe 06 3TOA 6ml3HH 60JIhllIOro .ne«pHUHTIl rocy,llapcTBeHHoro 6IO,ll)KeTa, nOTOMY 'ITO OR OrpaHH'lHBaeT CMemeHHe COBOK}'IlHOro cnpoca, KOTOpoe MO:lKeT OCYllieCT BHTb rocy,llapCTBO. HanpHMep, eCJIH CHOBll BepHY'fhCH K pHC. 7.2, TO MO:lKHO YBH ,lleTb, 'ITO eCJIH rocy,llapCTBO 3axO'leT HCnOJIh30BaTh «pHCKaJIhHYIO nOJIHTHKY .llJIH CMellIeHHH KPHBOA COBOK}'llHOro cnpoca H3 ADo B ADI> HO B03HHKHeT '1pe3MepHO 6oJIhllIOA ,lle«pHUHT 6IO,ll)KeTa, TOr,lla npH,lleTCH ,llOBOJIhCTBOBaThCH CMellIeHHeM Ha 60JIee KOpOTKoe paCCTOHHHe, npH KOTOPOM 3KOHOMHKa 6hICTPee BepHeTCH K ecre CTBeHHOMY ypoBHIO BhInycKa
YBenM'teHMe rOCYAapCTBeHHblX paCXOAOB, nOMOraeT npeOAOneTb CnaA
ECJIH 3KOHOMHKa nona.n.aeT B 6e.n.y, O,llHHM H3 nepBhIX ,lleACTBHA, KOTOphIe npe,ll npHHHMaIOT nOJIHTHKH, 6Y,lleT YBeJIHqeHHe paCXO,llOB roCY,llapCTBa. CMhICJI 3TOA MephI 3aKJIIOqaeTCH B TOM, 'ITO KOr,lla JIIO,llH TOMHTCH 6e3 pa60ThI H Ha nOJIKax JIe )((aT Henp0,llaHHhIe TOBaphI, nOKphIBaHCh nhIJIhIO, npaBHTeJIhCTBO MO:lKeT npHA'rH Ha nOMOllIh, npe.llJlaraH 60JIhllIoe KOJIH'leCTBO ,lleHer H npH06peTaH Ha HHX HeBOC TPe60BaHHhIe TOBaphI H YCJIYfH. B pe3YJIhTaTe 3TOro CJIyqHTCH CJIe.ll)'iollIee: rocy ,llapCTBO reHepHpyeT TaKoA OOJIhllIOA cnpoc, 'ITO npe,llnpHHTHH HaqHYT HaHHMaTb 6e3pa6OTHhIX C reM, 'IT06hI YBeJIH'lHTb npoH3BO,llHMhIA HMH npo,llyKT, Ha KOTOPhIA nO,llHHJICH cnpoc.
MO)((HO Ha,lleHTbCH Ha TO, 'ITO 3TOT CTHMYJI HHHUHHpyeT .llaJIhHeAIIIHA cnpoc. Kor.n.a JIIO,llH, B npOIlIJIOM 6e3pa6OTHhIe, CHOBa Ha'lHHaIOT nOJIy'laTb Japa60THYIO nrraTy, OHH TPaTJIT 60JIhllIe ,lleHer, a 3TO :3Ha'lHT, 'ITO cnpoc 6Y,lleT B03paCTaTh. B pe3YJIhTaTe 3KOHOMHKa HaqHeT «PYHK UHOHHpoBaTb CaMOCTOHTeJIhHO, TaK 'ITO Y rocy,llapcTBll HCqe3HeT He06xo,lI.HMOCTb npo,llOJDKaTb TpaTHTh Ha ee nO,llIJ;ep:lKKY TaK MHOro ,lleHer.
OnnBTB ysenttlfeHHIJIX pBCXO,QOS rocY,QBpCTSB
ECreCTBeHHO, nOJIHTHKaM MpaBHTCH BbICTYJIaTb 3a YBeJIH'leHHe TPaT rocy.n.apCTBll, nOTOMY
'ITO 3TO YBeJIH'leHHe MO:lKeT C03,llaTb HM xopollIHA HMH,ll)K, OC06eHHO eCJIH OHH npH 3TOM CMO ryT nO.ll'lepKHYTb, 'ITO HOBbIe paCXO,llhI HanpaBJIeHhI cneUHaJIhHO Ha y,llOBJIeTBOpeHHe fi(rrpe6 HocreA HX H36MpareJIeit
I~ BeTb JIHlIIh TPH cnoco6a ODJIaTHTb YBeJIH'leHHhIe pacxo,llhl rocy.n.apcTBll.
\~ 1./ llpaaHTeJIhCTBO MOXeT pacnOpH,llHThCH HaneqaTaTb OOJIbme ,lleHer. I
./ llpaBHTeJIhCTBO MO:lKeT nOBhICHTb HaJIOfH. . .
./ llpaBHTeJIhCTBO MO:lKeT 3aHHTb ,lleHbfH.
144 |
'1acrb II. MaKpoaKOHOM"Ka - H8YK8 06 3KOHOMIf4I8C«OM POCTe" cTBti"nbHOCTIf |
KaK JI 06'bJlCIDIIO B fJIaBe 5, neqaTaHHe 60JIbllIOro KOJIHqeCTBa HOBbIX ,n;eHer .ZJ;JIJI ODJIaTbI B03POCllIHX rocy,n;apCTBeHHblX TpaT npHBe,n;eT K BCDJIecKY HHcPJIJlUHH, KOTOPbIit npHHeceT C co60it 3KoHoMuqecKHit xaoc If KpH3HCbI. CJIe,n;oBaTeJIbHO, B HalliH ,n;HH rocy,n;apcTBa nOqTH HHKor,n;a He npH6eraIOT K neqaTaHHIO 60JIbllIero KOJIuqeCTBa ,n;eHer C ueJIblO OnJIaTbI B03POC lIIHX roCy.naPCTBeHHbIX pacxo,n;OB Ha roBapbI H ycnym.
llOBblllIeHHe HanoroB TaIOKe npo6JIeMaTuqHO, nOTOMY qTO eCJIH BbI CTapaeTeCb BbIitTH H3 Iq)H3HCa, BaM H)'XHbI ncrrpe6HTeJIH, Koropble 6y.DYT TpaTHTb KaK MOJKHO 60JIbllIe ,n;eHer Ha TO Bapbl H ycnym. ECJIH BbI no,n;HHMere HanOrH, ncrrpe6HTeJIH Cpa3Y )f{e COKpaTWf CBOH TpaTbI. BbI MO)f{ere KOMneHCHpoBaTb qaCTb COIq)ameHHbIX JIHqHbIX pacxo,n;OB, HeMe.nneHHO noopaTHB Bee nMyqeHHbIe B pe3YJIbTare Hanoroo6JIo)f{eHHH ,n;OXO,n;bI, HO JlCHO, qTO Bce 3m He CMO)f{eT CTHMYJIHpoBaTb COBOKYDHbIit cnpoc B ,n;OJIfOapeMeHHOM nepHo,n;e.
3SMMW Hrpsrw: CSMOe pscnpoCrpSHeHHOe peWeHHe
qTO H)'XHO c,n;eJIaTb rocy,n;apcTBy, qT06bI "Cpa3HTbCJI" C KpH3HCOM? HamH cnoc06 yae JIuqHTb c06cTBeHHble TpaTbI 003 COKPameHHH JIuqHbIX TpaT rpIDlmaH. PellIeHHeM no,n;06Hoit np06JIeMbI 6y.DYT 3attMbI.
3aHHMaH ,n;emrH B nepHO,n; KPH3Hca H TpaTH HX, rocy,n;apcTBO MO)f{eT yBeJIHqHTb c06CTBeH Hoe nOTpe6JIeHHe TOBapOB H yc.rryr 6e3 COKpameHHH ,n;OJIH TpaT CBOHX rpIDlmaH. Y Koro )f{e rocy,n;apcTBO 3aHHMaeT ,n;eHbrH? Y BaC H Y .npymx mo,n;eit.
Bo Bce BpeMeHa JIIO,n;H CTpeMHJIHCb COXpaHHTb qaCTb n~eHHbIX ,n;OXO,n;OB, HaKanJIHBaH c6epe)f{eHHH. 3TH cOOpe)f{eHHH MOJKHO HCnOJIb30BaTb B ,n;aJIbHeitllIeM .ZJ;JIJI nOKYDKH 6oJIbllIOro KOJIuqeCTBa pa3H006pa3HbIX aKTHBOB, cpe,n;H KOropbIX eCTb aK:QHH H o6JIHraU;HH, BblDYlIIeH HbIe KOpnopaI.J;HJlMH, He,n;BIDKHMOCTb, B3aHMHbIe cPoH.ZJ;bI H aHHYHTeTbl (e)f{ero,n;Hble B~aTbI).
Ho cOOpe)f{eHHH MOJKHO TaK)f{e HCnOJIb30BaTb H .ZJ;JIJI nOKYDKH rocy,n;apCTBeHHbIX 06JIHrau;uit, KOTopble, no CYTH, JIBlUIIOTCJI Iq)e,n;HTOM, BbI.ZJ;aHHblM rocy,n;apcTBy.
llpe.ZJ;JI8.I'Wl 6oJII,1lIe o6JIHra.u;Hl.l: Ha npo.ZJ;a)f(y, rocy.napcrno MO)f{eT nepeHanpaBHTh noroK cOOpe)f{eHHit, Koropble JIIO.ZJ;H He noopaTIIT Ha npH06pereHHe .n;pymx BH.ZJ;OB aKTHBOB, a BJIO:>KaT B 06Jmrau;HH, BbInylIIeHHble rocy.napcTBOM. llpH npo.ZJ;a)f(e o6JIH:raIufH rocy
,n;apcrno MOXeT n~ B CBOe pacnOpJl)f{eHHe Macey,n;eHer, KoropYIO MOXHO H3Pac Xo,n;OBaTb Ha ~PblH ycrryrH, TaKHM 06pa30M npeBP8lIIaH TO, qTQ ,n;OJDKHO 6b1JIO CTaTh
JIHlIHbIMH pacXO.ZJ;aMH, B aKTHBbI, B 06mecTBeHHble paCXO,n;bI Ha toBapbl H yc.nyrn.
'iTO AenaTb CAecl>H~HToM
YBeJIuqeHHe pacxo,n;OB rocy,n;apCTBa H cPHHaHCHpOBaHHe ero C nOMOmblO 3aHMOB - OqeHb
XOPOlliHit cnoc06 yBenuqHTb 06mHit cnpoc Ha roBapbl H ycnym. Ho y Hero eCTb nOTeHUHaJIb HO nJIoxoit n060qHblH 3$PeKT - C03.ZJ;aHHe iJerjJuu,uma 6KJiJJlcema; 3T0 cyMMa ,n;eHer, KOTOPYIO rocy,n;apCTBO TpaTHT CBepX nonyqeHHbIX OT HaJIoroo6JIO)f{eHHH ,n;OXO,n;OB B TeqeHHe reKylIIero ro,n;a. BCJlKHit OT,n;eJIbHblit ,n;ecPHUHT 61O.ZJ;XeTa npH6aB1U1eTCJI K 06meMy zocyiJapcmBeHHOMY iJoA
.?Y, HapaCTaIOmeH cyMMe BCeX ,n;eHer, KOTOpble rocy,n;apcTBO 3a,lI.0JI:>KaJI0 KPe,n;HTOpaM.
llp06JIeMa ,n;ecPHUHTa 61O.ZJ;XeTa H rocy,n;apCTBeHHoro ,n;OJIra 3aKJIlOqaeTCSI B TOM, qro OHH ,n;OJIXHbI 6bITb Kor,n;a-HH6y.ZJ;b BblnJIaqeHhI. ,lJ;aBaitTe npe,n;CTaBHM ceOO 06JIHrau;HIO, BbIDYlIIeH
HyIO CpOKOM Ha ,n;eCHTb JIeT, no KOTOpoit exero,n;HO BblnJIaqHBaeTCJI 6%. Kor.na BbI npH06pe Taere 3TY 06JtHraUHIO y rocy,n;apcTBa, ro nJIaTUre 3a Hee 1000 ,n;OJIJI. B OTBeT rocy,n;apcTBO 000 maeT BblnOJIHHTb CJIe)lyIomee.
./ |
BepHyTh BallIH 1000 ,n;OM. no HCreqeHHH ,n;eCHTH JIeT• |
|
./ Exero.ZJ;Ho BbmaBaTb BaM 60,n;0JIJI. (6% npH6b1JIH) ,n;o rex nop, nOKa DbI He no |
||
1 |
nyqure 06paTHo CBOH 1000 ,n;0JIJI. |
|
'rnaBa 7.60",,68 C ICpnlfcaMIf••• |
145 |
HTllK, ceR'Iac rocy.napCTBO nOJIyqaeT OT BaC 1000.n.oJIJI. C TeM, 'lT06h1 nOTPaTHTb HX Ha TOBaphl H yCJIYTH .!J,.JISI CTHMyJUIUHH 3KOHOMHKH, HO eMY HYJKHO onpe.n.eJlHTb, OTKY.n.a 6paTb 60.n.oJIJI. B ro.n. M$I Toro, 'IT06h1 BhlITJIaTHTb BaUlH npoueHThI no 3aRMY, a TaIOKe 3HaTb, r.n.e B3S1Tb 1000.n.oJIJI. 'Iepe3 .n.eC$lTb JIeT, Kor.n.a HCTe'IeT CpOK oMHraUHH.
rapaHTHH 3aUCHTbI 6y.qYUCHX .qOXo.qOB OT HanOrOOMOJICeHHfI
~.:
/! ..lit1"
~ :
O'IeBI1)J;HO, e.n.HHcTBeHHoR npH'IHHOR TOro, 'ITO JIIO.nH XOTSIT npe.n.OCTaBJUlTb rocy
.n.apCTBy .n.eHhrH nyTeM npH06peTeHHSI 06JIHfaUHR, $IBJUIeTC$I HX Bepa B TO, 'ITO ro cy.n.apCTBO CO BpeMeHeM BepHeT B3S1Toe B Iqle,lUIT. IIpH'lllHa, no KOTOpoR OHH BepSIT B 3TO, 3aKJIIO'IaeTC$I B TOM, 'ITO rocy.napCTBO HMeeT 3KCKJII03HBHoe npaBO ycTllHaB JIHBaTh HaJIOrH. IIo cyrn, Bce rocy.napcTBeHHhle 3aRMhI rapaHTHPYIOTC$I.6Y~HMH
.n.OXO.n.aMH OT HaJIoro06JIoxeeHHSI.
Ho CB$l3h MeX(.lJ.y HaJIOraMH H BhlITJIaTOR no 06JlHraUHSlM He $IBJU1eTC$I np.llMoR. ~PYTHMH cnOBaMH, TOJlhKO rrOTOMy, 'ITO rocy.n.apCTBO HMeeT MHoro OMHraUHR, OHO He 06$13aTeJIbHO
.n.OJlX(HO BHe3anHO nOBhlwaTb HaJIOrH C ueJIbIO nOJIyqeHHSI.neHer.!J,.JISI BhlITJIaThl no 06J1HrauH $1M. 3TO nOTOMY, 'fl'0 rocy.napCTBO 'IaCTO .n.onOJIHHTeJIbHO cPHHaHCHpyeT 06JI1ITaUHH, KOTOPhl MH OHO pacnOJIaraeT; OHO npOCTO BhlnyCKaeT HOBhle 06JIHraUO:H H TaKHM 06PaJOM nOJIyqaeT
.n.OCTaTO'IHOe KOJIH'IeCTBO .neHer iUUI BhlITJIaThl no CTapblM 06JIHraUHSlM. 3mT npouecc Ha3h1 BaeTC.II npOalleHUeM aOA2Q H nOBCeMeCTHO npaKTHKyeTC.II rocy.napCTBaMO:.
Ho He .n.yMaRTe, 'ITO Bce 3TO - JlHWb 60JIbIlIa.II acPepa ,lJ;JI.II Heonpe.n.eJleHHOR OTCPO'IKH BhlITJIaThI .n.OJIra. E.nHHcTBeHHoR npH'IHHOR, no lCOTOpoR BKJIa,lJ;'IHKH XOT.IIT yqacTBoBaTb B npOMeHHH, eCTb HX YBepeHHOCTb, 'ITO rocy.n.apcTBO MoxeeT Bcer.na HCnOJIb30BaTb CBoe npaBO Ha H8JIorooMoxeeHHe iUUI nOJIyqeHHSI He06xo.nHMbIX .neHer C ueJIbIO BhlITJIaThI CBOHX .n.OJIroB. YBepeHHOCTb BKJIazxqHKa n03BOJUIeT rocy.napcTBy COBepIlIaTb '3aRMhI, HaKaITJIHBa.II HOBhle 3aR MhI HJIH npOMeBaSI CTaphlR .n.om:
OnnSTS .qonr08 C nOMOUC.1O nelfSTSHHfI .qeHer: HenpS8Hn.HIJI' 81J160p
HHor.n.a .n.OBepHe BKJIa,lJ;'IHKa K rocy.napCTBy CTaHOBHTC.II HeYMeCTHhlM. KaK .II 061..llCH.IIIO B rJIaBe 5. rocy.n.apCTBO HMeeT .n.pyroR (.nOBOJIbHO .n.h.llBOJIbCKHR) cnoc06 BhlITJIaThl no CBOHM 06 JIHraUHSlM, nOMHMO HCnOJIb30BaHIUI .nOXO.n.OB OT H8JIorooMoxeeHH$I: OHO MoxeeT HaneqaTan MHoro .neHer.
no o6JIHraUHH CTOHMOCTbIO B 1000.n.OJIJI. rocy.napcTBo BepHeT BaM 1000 .n.0JIJl. - ee HOMH H8JIbHYIO CTOHMOCTb. Ha 06JIHraUHH He YKa3aHO, OTKY.na B03bMeTCSI Ta CYMMa, KOTOPYIO BaM 06$13YIOTC.II BepHYTb. TllK 'ITO rocy.napcTBO CB060.n.HO neqaTaeT HOBYIO 1000 .n0JIJI. H B03Bpa maeT ee BaM. 3To peweHHe MOJiceT KaJanc.II nOHaq8JlY OTJIH'lHhlM, HO Kor.n.a BhI H Bce .n.pyrne
.n.epxcaTeJIH o6JIHrauHR, nOJIyqHB BHOBb BhlnymeHHhle .neHbrH, Ha'lHeTe HX TPaTHTb, TO B3BHH THTe ueHhI H Bhl30Bere HHcPJUIUHIO.
KaK R nO)J;'IepKHBaIO B maDe 5, 60JIbWa.II HHcPJUIUIUI paJpynracT 3KOHOMH'lCCKYIO .nCSlTeJIb Hocn. Bo BpCMJI 60JIbWoR HHcPJUIUHH ueHhI Tep.llIOT 60JIbIlIYIO qaCTb cBoeR CTOHMOCTH, H JIIO.n.H C HaMHOro 60JIbIlIHM He.nOBepHeM H HeoxOTOR 3aKJIIOQlUOT .n.OJIrocpOQHble KOHTPaKThI HJIH .n.eJIaIOT .n.OJIroBpeMeHHhle BJIoxeeHH.II, noTOMY 'ITO OHH He 3HaIOT, KaKOBa 6y.neT HX CTOH Mocn B 6y.nymeM.
Ii,~....
~ :
3HaSI 0 nOTeHUH8JIbHhlX HenpH.IITHOCTSIX HHcPJUIUHH, JlIOJlH CKJIOHHbl 6ecnoKOHTbC.II BCRKHR pa3, Kor.na OHH BH,lJ;.IIT, 'ITO rocy.napCTBO HcnblThlBaeT 60JIbWoR .n.ecPHUHT 6IO.lJ.X(eTa HJIH cP0PMHpyeTC.II CJIHIlIKOM 60Jll,woR rocy.napCTBeHHhIit .n.om: OHH 6ec nOKO.llTC.ll, 'ITO rocy.n.apcTBO MoxeeT OKaJanc.ll B TaKOM nOJIoxeeHHH, Kor.n.a OHO He
148 '1SCTII II. MSKP03KOHOMMKS -: HSyKS 06 3KOHOMMlfSCKOM pocre M cTsGMnllHocTH
CMO)KeT nOBhICHTI> HaJIOrH Ha .IlOCTaTO'IHhIA ypoBeHb C TeM, IfI'06hI BhII1JIaTHTh He 06XO.llHMYJO cyMMy no 06mualUUlM (MH OHO He XO'IeT Pll3.APWKaTh H36HpaTlmeA TllKHM OOJIbWHM nOBbllneHHeM HaJIoroB). BKJI8,ll'iHKH 6eCnOKOJITCD, 'ITO eCJIH Ta KaB CHTyaI.UUI B03HHKHeT, roeY.IlapcTBO MO)KeT peWHThCD Ha ne'IaTaHHe .IlOnOnHH TeJIbHOro KonH'IeCma AeHe)KHoA MacChI ,IlJIB BhIIlJIaThI no .IlonraM. A 3TO paJpymHT 3KOHOMHKY.
ne'IaTaHHe .IleHer ,IlJIB BhIIlJIaThI roeY.IlapCTBeHHhIX .IlOJIrOB MO)KeT TalOKe IlJIOXO 0TPa3HTh CD Ha OOJIbWHHCTBe .Ilep)K&TeJIeA o6mmunIA, KOTOphIe nonyqaT CBOH .IleHbrH }'}ICe nocne no.ll HBTHB ueH H cMOIyr KYfiHTb MeHbwe TOBapoB. Cne.llOBaTeJIbHO, KOr.lla nIO.IlH .IleACTBHTenbHO Ha'IHyT 6eCnOKOHThCD, 'ITO rocY.IlapCTBO MO)KeT HaqaTh ne'IaTan .IleHbrH .nnD BhIIIJJaTbI CBO HX .IlOJIroB, roCY.IlapCTBY 6Y.IleT Bce TJl)KeJIee H TJl)KeJIee HaxO.llHTh )KenaIOlllHX nOKYnaTb ero o6nHraUHH. B nO.llo6HoA CHTYaUHH e.llHHCTBeHHhIA cnoco6, KOTOphIM rocY.IlapCTBO CMOJKeT npHBJIe'Ib nOlcynaTeJIeA, - 3m npe.nnaraTh Bce OOJIbIIIyIO H 60nbWYlO npoueHTHYJO cTaBKY B BH,Ile KOMneHcauHH 3a 6ecnoKoAcTBO JIIO.IleA, 'ITO .IleHbfH, Korophle OHH CO BpeMeHeM nonyqaT 06paTHo, nOTepRIOT 'IaCTh CTOHMOCTH. 3TH oollee BhICOKHe npoueHTHhIe CTaBKH .IleJIaIOT eno
XCHBIIIyIOCD CHTyaUHIO .IlaJKe OOJIee TIDKeJIoA, nocKonbKY BCSIKaB OTCPO'IKa .IlOllra .IloIDKHa 6mb
.BhInonHeHa no 60nee BhICOKHM npOUeHTHhIM CTaBKaM.
)l;aJIbWe - 60JIbwe: nOCKOllbKY HH¢mIUIDI OKa3hIBaeT BJIIDIHHe Ha Bce 06nHraUHH, a He T01IhKO Ha BhIIIYllleHHhIe roeY.IlapcTBOM, TO ecnH nIO.IlH OOJITCD HacTYTIaIOmeA HH4mBUHH, npo ueHTHhIC CTaBKH BO BceA 3KOHOMHKe nOBhIwaIOTCR. 3Ta CHTYaUIDI MOJKeT HeMeO/leHHO npH DeCTH K cepbe3HhIM 3KOHOMH'IeCKHM nOene.llCTBIDIM, nOCKOJIbKY 60JIee BhICOKHe npOueHTHhIe CTaBKH OTnyTHBaIOT norpe6HTeJIeA OT nonyqeHIDI KPC.IlHTOB,IlJIB nOKYfiKH TaKHX BelUeA, KaK MaWHHhI H .IlOMa, a «pHPMhI - OT nonyqeHIDI xpe.llHTOBaHIDI C ueJIblO npHo6peTeHHJI HOBhIX npOMbIW1IeHHhIX MOlllHOCTeA H oOOPY.IlOBaHHJI. CJIe.llOBaTeJIbHO, O}lQf,llaHHJI Toro, 'ITO rocy
.IltpcTBO MO)KeT npH onpe.lleJIeHHhIX ycJIOBHJIX B 6Y.IlYIUeM Hane'IaTaTh .IleHbrH, lfr06hI paCIIJIa THTbCSI C BKn8,ll'iHKaMH, CaMH no ce6e MOryT BhI3BaTh 3KOHOMH'IeCKHA ymep6. (3m ewe O.llHH npHMep paUHOHaJIbHhIX OJlCH,llaHHA B .IleACTBHH; CM. pa3.lleJI "PauHOHaJIbHhIe OXOUlaHHJI", pa Hee B 3TOA rnase.)
DOJ1bWHHCTBO ,rocY.IlapcTB CrapaeTCJI coxpaHHTh p83Mep CBOHX .IlOJIrOB H YP0DeHb lIe«pHUH Ta no.ll KOHTpo1leM, TaK'ITO HHICI'O Cepbe3HO He 6eCnOKOHTCJI 0 TOM, 'ITO rocY.IlapcTBY npH.lleT CSI ne'IaTaTh .IleHbrH C UeJIblO sepHYTb .IlOJIrH•
.JJt,Nelftafuta.R llfU,14I1iIiJea
~MOHemapHQR nOAurruuca - 3TO ynpllBJ1eHHe npe.nnOJKeHHeM .IleHer H npoueHTHhlMH
€CTaBKaMH C UeJIblO cTa6MH3lll.l;HH MH CTHMyJIHPOBaHIDI 3KOHOMHKH. B COBpeMeHHoA 3KOHOMHKeMOHeTapHU nQnHTHKa MOJKeT 6hITb pacueHeHa KaK caMhIA BJIM
TeJIbHhIA MexaHH3M, KorophIM pacnonaraeT rocY.IlapCTBO .Il1IB 6op},6h1 C xpH3HcaMH H coxpameHIDI 6e3pa6oTHUhI, - .Il8JKe 60JIee BJIIDITellbHhlA. qeM «pHCxanbHaB no JIHTHKa.
MOHeTapHlUI nOJIHTHKa Ha npaKTHKe B nepBYJ(> O'IepelIb H3MeHSIeT npe.nnOJKeHHe .IleHer
.Il1IB TOro, IfI'06hI ynpaBJUlTh npoueHTHhlMH CTaBKaMH. nOCKOJIbKY npOueHTHhle CTasKH BJIM lOT Ha Bce, Ha'IHHlUI C 38KJI8.IlHhIX Ha .IlOMa norpe6HTeJIeA H 3aKaH'IHBaB cnpOCOM Ha cpe.nCTBa npoH3BO.IlCma npe;:tnpHJrrHA, OHH HMeIOT OrpoMHoe H :aeeo6'heMnlOmee BJIHJlHHe Ha CTHMYnH pOBaHHe MH ynIeTeHHe 3KOHOMH'IeCKOA .IleJITeJIbHOCTH.
rn••• 7. iop,,6. C ICpHSIIO.MH... |
147 |
l.{T06bI .ZJ;aTb BaM nOJIHYIO KaPTHHy roro, KaK <pyHKI.:\HOHHpyeT MOHeTapHlUl nOJIHTHKa, jJ:
CHaqaJIa OCDexy B BalIIe~ naMJITH nOHJITHe ".ZJ;eHbfH". 3aTeM jJ: npO.ZJ;eMOHCTPHpYJO, qyO .ZJ;eHer
MOlKeY OKa3aTbCSI CJIHlIIKOM MHOro, H nOKaxy, HaCKOJIbKO 3TOT <PaKT CBSI3aH C npOUeHTHbIMH CTaBKaMH H HH<pJISIUHe~. 3ro, B CBOIO Oqepe.ZJ;b, .ZJ;aCT BaM He06xo.ZJ;HMoe nOHJITHe Toro, KaK
rOCY.ZJ;apCTBO MOXeY BJIHSITb Ha npOueHTHbIe CTaBKH, H3MeIDIH KOJIHqecTBO .ZJ;eHer, KOTOpoe Ha XO.ZJ;HTCSI B o60pore B 3KOHOMHKe.
ApryMeHTbI B nOnb3Y 6YMalKHbiX AeH~r
!leHbfH - 3ro aKmU8; 3ro 3HaqHT, qyO C TeqeHHeM BpeMeHH OHH coxpaHJIIOT CBOIO ueH HOCTb. !lPyrHe aKTHBbI BKJIIOqaIOT He.ZJ;BH:lKHMOCTb, ueHHbIe MeTaJIJIbI (HanpHMep, 30JIOTO) H <pHHaHCOBble aKTHBbI, KaK TO: aKIJ;HH H 06JIHraUHH. Ho .ZJ;eHbrH caMH no ce6e yHHKaJIbHbI, nOTOMYqTO OHH - e.ZJ;HHCTBeHHbI~ H30 BCex aKTHBOB, KOTOPbI~ noBCIO.ZJ;y npHHHMaeTCH B Ka qeCTBe cpe.ZJ;CTBa nJIaTexa 3a roaapbI H ycJIyrH.
KaK SI 06'bSICHJlIO- B maBe 5, .ZJ;eHbfH .ZJ;eJIaIOT 3KOHOMHKY HaMHoro 60JIee 3<I><peKTHBHO~, nOCKOJIbKY OHH cOKpaIUaIOT nOTPe6HOCTb B 6apTepe. Ho He06xo.ZJ;HMOCTb KOHTPOJIHpOBaTb ayreHTHqHOCTb .ZJ;eHer (TaK, tIT06bI JIIO.ZJ;H XOTeJIH npHHJITb HX) 03HaqaeT, qro OTBeTCTBeHHOCTb 3a npoH3BO.ZJ;CTBO .ZJ;eHer H npeCeqeHHe ~aeB HX <PaJIbCH<pHKaIUIH B03JIaraeTCSI Ha nJIeqH ro cY.ZJ;apCTBa.
3m, B CBOIO O'lepe.ZJ;b, npHBO.ZJ;HT K .ZJ;onOJIHHTeJIbHbIM nOTeHUHaJIbHbIM npo6JIeMaM, nOTOMY
'ITO rocy.ZJ;apcTaa Bcer.ZJ;a CTIlJIKHBaIOTCSI C C06JIa3HOM HaneqaTaTb 60JIblIIe .ZJ;eHer .ZJ;JISI TOro, qro
6bI paCnJIaTHTbCSI no CTapbIM .ZJ;OJIraM HJIH KYDHTb BHOBb npoH3Be.ZJ;eHHbIe roBapbI H ycJIYfH. CYM no HcropH'leCKHM npHMepaM, e.ZJ;HHCTBeHHbI~cnoc06 orpaHHtIHTb cnoc06HocTb ro
cY.ZJ;apcTBa neqaTaTb 60JIblIIee KOJIHtIeCTBO .ZJ;eHer .ZJ;JISI BbIllJIaThI no CBOHM .ZJ;OJIraM - 3TO YC TaHOBHTb MemaAAu'CecKuu cmaHoapm. IIpH 3TO~ CHCTeMe roCY.ZJ;apcTBO He MoxeT HaneqaTaTb 60JIblIIe 6aHKHOT 003 roro, '1T06bI OHH He 6hIJIH 06eCneqeHbI ueHHbIMH MeTaJIJIaMH THna 30 JIOTa. HanpHMep, Coe.ZJ;HHeHHbIe IlITaThI AMepHKH HCnoJIb30BaJIH 30JIOro~ CTaH.ZJ;apT, no KO TOPOMY 35 .ZJ;OJIJI. HaJIH'lHbIMH MomH 6bITb norameHbI O.ZJ;HOH yHUHeH 3OJIOTa. BbI" MOrJIH - B 6YKBaJIbHOM CM~CJIe - npHHeCTH B Ka3Ha'le~CTBO CIlIA 35 6yMa:lKHhIX .ZJ;OJUlapoB H 06MeHJITb
HX Ha YHIJ;HIO 3OJIOTa.
OrnOCHTeJIbHO MOHeTapHo~nOJIHTHKH 3m 3Ha'lHJIO, qro rocY.ZJ;apcTBO He HMe,TIO B03MOX HOCTH npOH3BOJIbHO yBeJIHqHBaTb 06'beM 6yMaJKHbIX .ZJ;eHer, nOTOMY 'ITO 3a Ka:lK.ZJ;bIe HOBbIe
35 6YMaxHhIX .ZJ;OJIJI., KoropbIe OHO XOTeJIO HaneqaTaTb, Hy:lKH0 6bIDO npH06pecTH yHUHIO 30 JIOTa, Ha KOTOPYJO MO:lKHO 6bIDO 06MeHJITb 3TH .ZJ;eHbfH. BbIcOKaJI CTOHMOCTb 3OJIOTa OrpaHH '{HBaJIa npe.ZJ;JIOXeHHe .ZJ;eHer.
KaK SI OTMeTHJI B maDe 5, nO.ZJ;06HaSI CHCTeMa npeKpaCHO no.ZJ;XO.ZJ;HT .ZJ;JISI npe.ZJ;OTBparueHHSI 60JIbllIOH HH<PJIsrUHH, nOToMYqTO 60JIblIIlUl HHc1>JumHSI B03HHKaJIa B e.ZJ;HHCTBeHHOM ~ae
KOT.ZJ;a rocY.ZJ;apcTBo neqaTaJIO orpOMHoe KOJIHtIeCTBO HOBbIX .ZJ;eHer. (Kor.ZJ;a 3TH HOBbie .ZJ;eHbfH nyCKaJIHCb B 060POT, OHH B3BHHqHBaJIH ueHbI.)
IIpe.nynpe)l(.ZJ;eHHe HH<I>mnum - DeIUb XOPOlIIaSI, HO Hcn0JIh30BaHHe MeTIlJIJIHqeCKoro CTaH
.ZJ;aPTa HMeJIO H 3Ha'lHTeJIbHhIe He.ZJ;OCTaTKH. IIpHtIHHa KpoeTCSI B CJIe.ZJ;YJOIUeM: HCnOJIb30BaHHe MeTaJIJIH'leCKoro CTaH.ZJ;aPTa npHBO.ZJ;HJIO K TOMY, qro C Te'leHHeM BpeMeHH npe.ZJ;JIOxeHHe .ZJ;eHer OCTaBaJIOCb HeH3MelQ{bIM, 'ITO 3Ha'IJIJIO, qro .ZJ;a:lKe ecJIH 3KOHOMHKa Moma HCnOJIb30BaTb He MHoro 60JIblIIe HJIH HeMHoro MeHblIIe .ZJ;eHer.ZJ;JISI YJIY'llIIeHHSI CBOHX <pyHKIUdt, roCY.ZJ;apcTBO He Momo HH'lero nO.ZJ;eJIaTb, nOTOMY 'ITO npe.ZJ;JIOxeHHe .ZJ;eHer 6b1JIO YCTaHOBJIeHO KOJIHlJeCTBOM
3OJI0Ta, HMeIOIUerocSI B 3anacHHKaX rocy.ZJ;apCTBa.
148 |
IIacn. II. MaKp03KOHOMltKa - HayKa 06 3KOHOMltlfeCKOM pocTe It cTa6M11bHocnr |
B lIaCTHOCTH, Cyw;eCTBOBaHHe MeTIlJIJIWIecKoro CTaH)J,apnl 3HallHT, lIro BhI He MO)l{e ttl re npHMeHHTb MOHeTapHYJO nOJIHTHKY .lUUI CTHMyJIHpOBaHIDI cBoeit 3KOHOMHKH B nepHO.n; KPH3Hca. O.n;Hoit H3 npWIHH TOro, ~ BO BCex CTPaHax MHpa HMeJIa Mecro CBOJI BeJIHKajl .n;enpeCCIDI, 6hIJIO CJIe)lylOmee: Kor.n;a HallaJIaCb KaTaCTPOlPa, noqrn B Ka)l{,ZJ;OH: TaKOH:CTPaHe .n;eitcTBOBaJI 30JIOroit CTaH,ZJ;apT. 3To 03HallaJIO, 'ITO rocy.n;ap CTBa 6hIJIH He cnoc06HhI YBeJIWIHTb npeAJIO)l{eHHe .n;eHer ,ZJ;IDI roro, ~6bI nOMOllb 3KOHOMHKe. 3THM TalOKe 06'bJlCHJleTCJI, nOlleMY CTPaHbI, KoropbIe nepBbIMH 0TKa 3hIBaJIHCb OT 30JIOTOfO CTaH,ZJ;aPTa, BhIXO,ZJ;HJIH H3 KPH3Hca paHbIIIe H C MeHbIIIHMH norepRMH; nOCJIe TOro, KllK OHH npHHHMaJIH peIIIeHHe 06 aHHYJIHpOBaHHH 3OJIOTO ro CTaH,ZJ;apnl, OHH MOfJIH cB060.n;Ho nellaTaTb HOBhIe .n;eHbfH ,ZJ;IDI CTHMYJIHPOBaHIDI CBoeH 3KOHOMHKH. C .n;pyroit CTOpoHbI, B CTPaHax, HanpHMep, B CIlIA H AHfJIHH, KOTOphIe ynOpHO npH,ZJ;ep)I{HBaJIHCb CBOHX 3OJIOTbIX CTaH,ZJ;aPTOB, Ha6JIIO.n;aJIHCb ca
MhIe AJIHTeJIbHhIe H 60JIe3HeHHble 3KOHOMWIeCKHe cna,ubI.
Bo MHOroM 6JIaro.n;apJl HaJIH'lHIO BbIIIIeonHcaHHoro onbITa H )l{eJIaHHIO HCnOJIb30BaTb no He06xo.n;HMOCTH MOHeTapHYJO nOJlHTHKY, Ka)l{,ZJ;lUI H3,CTPaH OTKa3hIBaJIaCb OT 30JI0T0ro CTaH
.n;aPTa B nOJIb3Y 6YMa:JICHbIX OeHez (T.e• .n;eHer, He 06ecnelleHHhIX 30JI0TbIM 3KBHBaJIeHTOM). llpH CHCTeMe 6YMaxHhIX .n;eHer rocy.n;apCTBo npOCTO nellaTaeT CTOJIbKO 6aHKHOT, CKOJIbKO eMY 3a XOlleTCJI, Ha3hIBaJI HX .n;eHbraMH H nycKaJI HX B 3KOHOMHKY. EOJIbIIIlUI nOllb3a 3TOH CHcreMhI 3aKJII01IaeTCJI B TOM, ~ rocy.n;apcTBO MO)l{eT npoH3BOJIbHO YBeJIHlIHBaTb HJIH COKPamaTb npe.n; JIO)l{eHHe .n;eHer, B 3aBHCHMOCTH OT TOro, KaKoit H3 cnoco60B JIYlIIIIe CTHMYJIHPyeT 3KOHOMHKy.
B OCTaBIIIeHCJI lIacm 3TOit fJIaBhI H HCnOJIb3YIO 6YKBY M,ZJ;IDI 0603HalleHIDI 06mero KOJIHlIe CTBa .n;eHer, QllPKYJIHPYIOIUHX B 3KOHOMHKe. HanpHMep, M = 1,3 TPJll:I• .n;0JIJI. 0603HallaeT HOMH HaJIbHYIO CTOHMOCTb BceX 6aHKHOT H MOHeT B 3KOHOMHKe, KOTOPaH COCTIlBJIHeT 1,3 TPJIH• .n;0JIJI.
YBaC MO)l{eT OKa3aTbCR CnMWKOM MHOrO AeHer
~t MOHeTaPHaJI nOJIHTHKa COCTOHT B ynpaBJIeHHH npeAJIO)l{eHHeM .n;eHer C reM, 'lT06hI
I~ H3MeHHTb CTOHMOCTb 3aHMCTBOBaHHhIX .n;eHer, T.e. npOIIeHTHyyo CTaBKy. KmolleBYIO
\~ POJIb npH npOBe.n;eHHH MOHeTapHoit nOJIHTHKH HrpaeT TOT lPaKT, liTO cnpoc Ha
.n;eHbfH 3aBHCHT OT npOIIeHTHoit CTaBKH.
llpe.n;CTaBbTe, liTO H O.n;OJl)l{HJI BaM MHJIJlHOH .n;OJIJIapOB, H BhI MO)l{eTe .n;eJIaTb C HHM, ~ nO)l{eJIaeTe. llpe.n;nOJIO)I{HM, ~ BhI 3KOHOMHbI H peIIIaere coxpaHHTb BCe .n;o nOCJIe,ZJ;Hero neH HH XOTIl 6b1 B TelleHHe ro.n;a, nOTOMY 'ITO ,ZJ;YMaere: y BaC 6y.n;eT .n;OCTaTOlIHO BpeMeHH ,ZJ;JlH TOro,
~6bI H3hICKaTb HaH.JIY'lIIIHit cnoc06 nQTPatHTh .n;emfH.
ll03BOJIbTe 3a,ZJ;aTb BaM O.n;HH Bonpoc: 6y.n;ere JIH BhI .n;ep)l{aTb BeCb CBoit KallHTaJI B HaJIHlI
HhIX?
llpaBHJIbHhIit OTBeT: "HET!"
XpaHeHHe Bcero cBoero COCTOHHHH B HaJIHlIHhIX, roBOpH OTKpOBeHHO, .n;eHCTBHreJIbHO rJIynoe peIIIeHHe, nOTOMY liTO HaJIWIHhIe He npHHOCHT npoIIeHTOB. ,ll;~e eCJIH BhI nOJIO)I{Hre
.n;eHbfH Ha paClIeTHhIit ClIeT, TO nOJIYllHTe KaK MHHHMYM He60JIbIIIYIO .n;OJIIO npH6hIJIH B BH,ZJ;e npOIIeHTOB. ,ll;~e 1% OT MHJIJlHOHa .n;OJIJIapOB COCTaBHT 10 ThIC• .n;OJIJI. llolleMy BbI .n;OJI)I{HhI 0TKa3hIBaTbCH OT 3TOro? A eme .rrytIIIIe, eCJIH BhI HCnOJIb3yere 'HaJIH'lHbIe ,ZJ;IDI npH06peTeHIDI rocy.n;apCTBeHHblX 06JIHraIIHit; B TaKOM cJIYlIae BhI MOXeTe nOJIYllHTb 5% HJIH 6% .n;oxo.n;a. 3m
Ha 50 ThIC. HJIH 60 ThIC• .n;0JIJI. 6oJIbIIIe, lIeM BbI nOJIYllHJIH 6hI, eCJIH 6hI npo,ztOJI)l(aJIH coxpaHJlTb CBoe 6oraTCTBO B BH,ZJ;e HaJIH'lHhIX.
JICHO, ~ lIeM BhIIIIe npoueHTHaJI CTaBKa, KOTOPYIO BbI nOJIYllHTe OT .n;pymx aKTHBOB, TeM 60JIbIIIe CTHMYJIa AJIH BaC npeBpaTHTb CBOH HaJIH'lHbIe B .n;pyrHe aKTHBbI. ,ll;eHCTBHTeJIbHO,
rnasa 7. Sop,,6a c ICPtf3tfCaMtf... |
149 |