Добавил:
Upload Опубликованный материал нарушает ваши авторские права? Сообщите нам.
Вуз: Предмет: Файл:

экономика для чайников

.pdf
Скачиваний:
11
Добавлен:
02.05.2015
Размер:
19.14 Mб
Скачать
20 000

IIpeLlnOJIOXHM,

liTO rOCYLlapCTBO XOlleT 3aKYTIHTh cl>yprOH CTOHMOCTbIO 20 000 LlOM. ,ll,JUI

nOllToBo:l:l: CJIYX(6hI.

qecTHhIH cnoc06 npH06peTeHIDI - no HCnOJIbJOBaHHe 20 000 LlOM. H3

n0JIY'leHHhIX HaJIOrOB ,ll,JUI nOKYTIKH cl>yproHa. A 06MaHHhIH cnoc06 - 3TO BbmYCK LlOnOJI­

HHTeJIbHhIX LlOM. ,ll,JUI nOKYTIKH nora xe cl>yproHa. BhInycKIDI H pacxoLlYR BHOBb BhI­ IIYIIleHHhIe LleHbrH, rOCYLlapCTBO npeBpamaeT 20 000 LlOM. lIaCTHOH C06CTBeHHOCTH - cl>yp­ roH - B 06mecTBeHHYIO C06CTBeHHOCTh. TaKHM 06PaJOM, BbmYCK HOBhIX LleHer BhInOJIHReT POJIb HaJIOra. IIoCKOJIb!O' nellaTaHHe HOBhIX LleHer npHBoLlHT K HHcl>JIRUHH, 3TOT BHLl HaJIO­ ro06JIoxeHIDI lIacTO HaJhIBaIOT UHc}JmIl4UOHHbLM HOIlOZOM (lIacTb LlOXOLlOB cl>H3HlIecKHX H IOpH­

.!lH'IecKHX JIHU, yrpa'lHBaeMIDI B pe3YJIbTaTe HHcl>JIRUHOHHOro 66ecueHHBaHHR LleHer; HaJIOr, ct>aKTH'leCKH BhInJIallHBaeMhIit HaCeJIeHHeM BCJIeLlCTBHe na.ueHHR nOKYTIaTeJIbHoit cnoc06Ho­

cm LleHer. - llpuMe". nep.). . .

HHcl>JIRUHOHHhIit HaJIOr He TOJIbKO TaitHhIit, OH eme HeCnpaBeLlJlHB no OTHOIIIeHHIO K 6eLlHhIM, noTOMY 'ITO HM npHXOLlHTCll TpaTHTb nO'ITH Bce CBOH LlOXOLlhI Ha TOBaphI H YCJIYfH, CTOHMOCTb KOTOphIX CHJIbHO B03paCTaeT BO BpeMll HHcl>JIRUHH. B OTJIH'IHe OT 6eLlHhIX CJIOeB HaCeJIeHHJI, 60raThIe JIIOLlH HMeIOT B03MOXHOCTh OTKJIa.llhIBaTb 60JIbIIIYIO 'IaCTh CBOHX LlOXO­ LlOB BMeCTO TOro, 'IT06hI HCTpaTliTb Bce, 'ITO OHH nOJIyqHJIH, a 3TO 3Ha'lHT, 'ITO OHH MeHee nOLlBepxeHhI BilIDIHHlO HHcl>IDIUlioHHoro HaJIOra. BKJIa.llhIBaJI CBOH c6epeX<eHIDI B HMYUJ,eCTBO (HanpHMep, HeLlBH:lKHMOCTb), ueHa KOTOpOro BO BpeMJI HHcl>JIRUHH paCTeT, 60raThIit qeJIOBeK MOX<eT y6epe<lb ce6J1 OT 6bJIbIIIOit LlOJIH HenpIDITHOCTeit, BhI3BaHHhIX liHcl>JIRuHeit

/IaJu/tJl&i4 UHf'/J.UlH,UIO: UH98leCbt H,eH

HHcl>JIRUIDI MO:lKeT CTaTb npHtlHHoit MHorHX npo6JIeM. II03TOMY, ,l1.lUI TOro, 'IT06hI rocYLlap­ CTBO Momo YLlep:lKHBaTb HHcPIDIUHIO nOLl KOHTpOJIeM, eMY Hy)KeH cnoc06 TO'IHOrO HJMepeHIDI HHcl>IDIUHH.

KaK JI Y:lKe 06l>1lCHHJI paHee B pa3.lleJIe "IIoKYTIaeM HHc:PJIRUHIO: pHCKH OT 60JIbIIIOrO KOJIH­ 'IeCTBa LleHer", ueHHOCTb LleHer onpeLleIDleTCJI BJaHMoLleitCTBHeM npeiJllO:JICeHUR LleHer H cnpoca

Ha LleHbrH. IIpeLlJlOxeHHe LleHer HBXOLlHTCJI nOLl KOHTPOJIeM npaBHTeJIbCTBa, HO npaBHTeJIbCT­ BO He MoxeT HenocpeLlCTBeHHO OnpeLleJIHTh ypoBeHb cnpoca Ha LleHbrH, n03TOMY HY:lKH0 BH­

~eTh, KaK B3aHMoLleitCTBYJOT cnpoc H npeLlJloxeHHe, ,ll,JUI TOro 'IT06hI OnpeLleJIHTh, HaCKOJIbKO HYXHO YBeJIH'IHTh HJIH YMeHbIIIHTb KOJIHtleCTBO LleHer.

0/' ECJIH B03HH~eT HHcl>JIRUIDI, npaBHTeJIbCTBCi 3HaeT, liTO npeLlJlOXeHHe LleHer paCTeT 6hICTpee, HeXeJIH cnpoc Ha LleHbrH. ECJ1H eMY HY:lKH0 CHH3HTb HHcl>JIR­ UHIO, OHO LlOJDKHO YMeHbIIIHTh npHpOCT LleHeXHoit MaCChI.

0/' ECJIH BOJHHKaeT Llecl>JIRUIDI, npaBHTeJIbCTBO JHaeT, liTO cnpoc Ha LleHbrH YBe­

JIHtlHBaeTCJI 6hICTpee, HeXeJIH npeLlJlOxeHHe LleHer. ECJIH eMY HYXHO nOKOH­ lIHTh C Llecl>JIRUHe:l:l:, OHO LlOJDKHO YBeJIH'lHTh npHpOCT LleHeXHOH MaCChI.

IIOCKOJIbKY HHcl>JIRUIDI - 3TO o6lqee nOBhIIIIeHHe ueH, JIY'lIIIH:l:l: cnoc06 OTCJIe)lQ{­

@) BaTh ee - 3TO YBHLleTh, MeHReTCJI JIH CO BpeMeHeM CTOHMOCTb nOKYTIKH 60JIbillOro KOJIHlIeCTBa paJHo06pa3HhIX TOBapOB. ECJIH BMeCTO 3Toro BhI 6YLleTe paCCMaTpH­ BaTh 0LlHY HJIH LlBe ueHbI, TO MOXeTe npHHRTb omHOCUmellbHOe H3MeHeHHe ueHhI Ja o6lqee H3MeHeHHe ueH. (O'rHoCHTeJIbHOe H3MeHeHHe ueHhI npoHCXOLUiT TOrLla, KO­ rLla OLlHa ueHa nOLlHHMaeTCJI no OTHOIIIeHHIO K LlpyrHM, KOTophIe OCTaIOTCJI npex­ HHMH.)

mSIS 5. HHl!'nffLlHff: nOlfeMY MHOro p,eHer He Icerp,s XopOWO

99

nompe6UmeAbCKOU KOP3UHOU

3KOHOMHCThI npOH3BOJIbHO onpe,neJUlIOT HeCKOJIbKO 60JIbillHX rpynn TOBapoB H yCJIyr H HaJhlBaIOT HX (Ha60p nOTPe6HTeJIbCKHX TOBapoB H ycnyr, npH06­ peTaeMhlX Ha phlHKe. - ilpUMelt. nep.). CaMlUl H3BeCTHlUl nOTPe6HTeJIbCKlUl KOp3HHa, KOTO­ plUl KOHTPOJIHpyeTCg EIOPO CTaTHCTHKH TPy,na CIlIA, co,nep:lKHT ,naHHMe 0 npe,nnOJIaraeMOM 06'beMe MeCWIHhIX 3aTPaT 06b£lIHOH aMepHKaHCKOA CeMbH, COCTOgilleH H3 qeThlpeX qeJIOBeK. CTOHMOCTb :nOH KOp3HHhI B paJHhle nepHO,nhl BpeMeHH CJIYX<HT .ll;JllI onpe,neJIeHRjI uHiJeKca nompe6UmeAbCKUX ~eH (Hila;.

BCJIe.nYIOIUHX pa3.ll;eJIax MhI paCCMQTPHM, KaK C03.ll;aeTCg nQTPe6HTeJIbCKlUl Kop3HHa H KaK ee MO)I{HO HCnOJIb30BaTb.ll;Jlll H3MepeHRjI HH«p.rnru;HH. ECJIH e)J(ero,nHYIO CTOHMOCTb mrrpe6H­

TeJIbCKOA KOP3HHhI COnOCTaBHTb C ee CTOHMOCTbIO B 6aJHCHOM ro.ny, TO paCqeT TeMna HH$rn­

.u;HH Me)J()ly .ll;B~ npOH3BOJIbHO Bhl6paHHhlM ro)I,aMH CTaHOBHTCg nyCTgKOBhlM .,neJIOM. (EcnH MC 3aHHTepeCOBaJIH TeMbI nQTPe6HTeJlbCKOA KOp3HHhI H Hnu;, MO)J(eTe 06paTHTbCg Ha \Veb­ cam EIOPO CTaTHCTHKH TPy,na CIlIA no a.npecy www.bls.gov/cpi/home.htm.)

C03AaeM C06cTBeHHylO nOTpe6MTenbCKYlO KOp3MHy

B nOTPe6HTeJIbCKYIO _KOp3HHy Mg paCqeTa Hnu; BXO,nHT 60JIbillOe KOJIHqeCTBO npO.nyKTOB H ycnyr. BaM 6y,neT npome nOHgTb TepMHH "HH.neKC .u;eH", eCJIH BhI C03,na.nHTe ynpomeHHhIH HH.neKC Ha npHMepe OqeHb MaJIeHbKOA nQTPe6HTeJIbCKOH KOp3HHhI. B 3TOM pa3.ll;eJIe g npOaHaJIH3HpYIO OlteHb MaJIeHbKYIO nQTPe6HTeJIbCKYIO KOp3HHy, B KO'rOpyIO BOit,Dyr JIHillb nH.u;.u;a, nHBO H yqe6HHKH. nOCKOJIbKY 3TOT "Ha60p" 06b£lIHo nOKYllaIOT cTY,neHThl KOJUle.ll;)J(eH, g Ha3BaJI ee "HH.neKc nOTPe6H­ TeJIbCKHX .u;eH CTY,neHTa" •

)ljrn KaX.Il;oro H3 TPex BH.nOB TOMpa, BXO.nm.u;HX B HH.neKC nQTPe6HTeJIbCJ{HX .u;eH cTY,neHTa, g npH,DyMaJI .u;eHhI Ha 2003, 2004 H 2005 ro,nhl H BHec HX B Ta6JI. 5.1.

TatSnMLUl 5.1 . MHAeKc nOTpetSMTenbCKMx 4eH CTYAeHTa

Tosap

KOnM'leCTBO

~H8B2003

14eH8B2004

14eHa B2005

rynneHHoro TOBap8

rOAY,AOM.

rOAY,AOnn.

rOAY,AOM.

 

nHlIL\8.

10

10

9

9

nHBO

60

2

2

2,25

Y'IetlHHKH

1

120

160

170

 

 

 

 

 

B 2003 ro.ny o,nHa nH.u;.u;a C ChlpOM cpe.nHeH BeJI~CTOHJIa 10 ,n0JIJI., 6YTh1J1oqKa XOJIo,n­ HOro nHBa - 2 ,n0JIJI., a CJIHillKOM TOJICTbIH, MOXO HanHcaHHhlH, MaJIOrtOHjlTHhlH yqe6HHK no aJaM 3KOHOMHKH CTOHJI 120 ,nOJUl. B CJIe.nYIOIUeM ro.ny .u;eHa O,nI!0H IllI.u;.u;hI C ChlPOM cpe,nHell: BeJIWlHHhI ynaJIa ,no 9 ,nOJUl., noTOMY qro psmOM co cTapoii: IllI.u;.u;epHeH 0TKPhlJIaCb HOBlUl, qro npHBeJIO K .u;eHoBoH BoHHe. nHBO npo,nOJDKaJIH npo,naBaTb no .u;eHe 2 ,nOJUl., HO KHH)I{HhlH MaraJHH peillHJI, qTO 003 yqe6HHKa CTY,neHTbI Bce paBHO He o6oA,nyrcg, H nOBhlCHJI .u;eHY Ha Hero ,no 160 ,nOJUl.

~eM-.nanbIIIe. npH o.u;eHHBaHHH HH.neKca BaM HY)I{HO CJIe,nHTb 3a TeM, CKOJIbKO e,nHHH.u;

KaX.Il;oro BH)l,a TOBapa 3aKYllaeTCg 06bJqJ:IbIM CTY,neHTOM exero,nHO. ):VuI npOCTOThI ,naBaHTe npe,nnOJIO)J(HM, qTO B ro,n 06b£lIHhlH cry,neHT nOKYllaeT ,necgTb nHUIl C ChlpOM, illec~eCfl6a­

HOK nHM H O,nHH yqe6HHK no 3KOHOMHKe.

100

"Iacr" II. MaKp03KOHOIIHK8 - HayKIf 06 3KOHOIIH'feCKOII pocrs H CTB6HJJ"HOCTH

P2OO4 -

Bbl'lMCnSleM TeMn MH~nSlI.\MH

)lJm roro 'IT06hI Bhl'lHCJIHTb, KaKWI HH«lJ,mn.um CYIUecTByeT B CTy,lleHtleCKoit 3KOHOMHKe (HJIH

.D;e«lJ,mn.um, eCJIH CTOHMOCTb )KH3HH Ha'IHeT CHIDKaTbCH), CHalfaJla HYJKHO npocYMMHJ)OlJaTb CTOH­ MOCTb n01J)e6HTeJThCKoit KOp3HHh1 B KIDK,llOM or.D;eJIbHO B3HTOM roAY. B 2003 roAY ee CTOHMOCTb COCTaBHJIa 340 ,lJ,OJIJI.: 100 ,lJ,OJIJI. - IIHUUa (.n.ecHTb IIHUU, no 10 ,lJ,OJIJI. KIDIOlaH), 120 ,lJ,OJIJI. - DHBO

(60 6aHOK mma no 2 ,lJ,OJIJI.) H 120 ,lJ,OJIJI. - yqe6HHKH no 3KOHOMHKe (O,IJ,HH yqe6HHK CTOHMOCTbIO 120,lJ,OJIJI.). CroHMOCTb npH06pereHHH TIlKoit xe KOp3HHhI B 2004 roAY COCTllB1llIeT 370 .D;OJIJI. 3m

3Ha'IHT, lfI'O CTOHMOCTb norpe6HTeJIbCKOH KOp3HHhI BhIpocna Ha 30 ,lJ,OJIJI.

Tenepb, KOf,lJ,a BhI 3aKOHqWIH CJIOXeHHe, BaM HyxHO HeMHOXKO 3aHHTbCH anre6poH. 3KOHOMHCTbJ HCnOJIbJYIOT 60JIbwyIO 6YKBY P ,IJ,JIH 0603HaqeHHH TOro, CKOJIbKO ,lJ,OJIJIapoB CTO­ HT onpe,lJ,eJIeHHaH norpe6HTeJIbCKaH Kop3HHa. HTaK, B 3mM CJIyqae P2OO3 03HaqaeT CTOHMOCTb nOTPe6HTeJIbCKOH KOp3HHhI B 2003 roAY, a CroHMOCTb nOTPe6HTeJIbCKOH KOp3HHhI B

2004 roAY. CT8H,lJ;apTHhIM 0603HaqeHHeM TeMna HHlpmnUfH 3KOHOMHCThI CQHTaIOT rpeQecKYIO 6YKBY 1t (npoH3HocHTCH "nH").

)lJm roro Qro6bI BbJlIHCJIHTb TeMn HH<pJIHUHH, MOIRO BOCnOJIbJOBaTbCH OQeHb npocToH

<popMyJIoit:

1t = (PBmopoU roiJ -

P1U![J6b1U roiJ) / P1U![J6bIU roiJ·

(5.1)

B HaIIIeM cnyqae <PopMyJIa npH06peTaeT BH,IJ,:

 

1t = (P2004 -

P2U()J) / P200J

(5.2)

flO,lJ,CTaBHB 3HaQeHHH P2OO3 = 340 ,lJ,OJIJI. H P2OO4 = 370 ,lJ,OJIJI., onpe,lJ,eJIHeM, QTO 1t = 0,088. IIpe06pli3yeM 310 qHCJIO B npoueHThI, YMHO)KHB ero Ha 100, H HH<pJIHUHH nOTPe6HTeJIbCKHX ueH cry,lJ,eHTa B 2003-2004 roAY cocraBHT 8,8%. TaKHM 06paJOM, Ha OCHOBe 3TH)( ,lJ,aHHbIX MhI

.D;enaeM BhIBO,lJ" Qro B 2004 roAY CTY,IJ,eHTY HYXHO Ha 8,8% 60JIbIIIe .D;eHer,IJ,JIH noKyDKH YKaJaH­ HOit B npHMepe norpe6HTeJIbCKOH KOp3HHhI.

YCT8HOBneHHe HHAeKC8 l.\eH

CTY,IJ,eHtlecKaH norpe6HTeJIbCKaH Kop3HHa - 3m ,lJ,OBOJIbHO npOCTOit npHMep, HO KOr,lJ,a ro­ CYMpcTBeHHaH CTllTHC~eCKaHCJIY)K6a BbI'DlCJIHeT HacroHmHft HflU, OHa 06hI'IHO ,lJ,eJIaeT TO xe caMoe, roJIbKO HCnOJIb3yeT,IJ,JIH 3TOfO 3HaQHTeJIbHO 60JIbIIIee KOJI~eCTBOTOBapOB. OHa TaK:lKe HCnOJIbJyeT nOHHTHe UHaeKca 14eH (HJIH UHaeKca ypo8HJl 14eH), ~O 06JIerqaeT npOH3Be­

.D;eHHe paCQeTOB H HHTepnpeTIlIUIIO TeMna HH<pJIHUHH B TeQeHHe HeCKOJIbKHX JIeT. )lJm yCTa­ HOBJIeHHH HH,IJ,eKca ueH BHaQane YCTaHaBJIHBaIOT 6li3HCHhIit ro,lJ,. flpo,lJ,OJIXaH HaIII npHMep, npe.n.nOJIO)KHM, ~o 2003 ro,lJ, - 3m 6aJHCHhIit ro,lJ, HH,IJ,eKCa nOTPe6HreJIbCKHX ueH CTY,IJ,eHTa. YpoBeHb ueH B 2003 roAY npHHHMaeTCH 3a 100, a ypOBHH ueH KIDK,lloro CJIe.nyIOmero ro,lJ,a on­ pe.D;eJIHIOTCH no OTHOIIIeHHIO K YPOBHIO 6li3HCHOro ro,lJ,a (100).

)lJm roro 'IT06hI C,IJ,eJIaTb 2003 ro,lJ, 6li3HCHbIM, ypoBeHb ueH P = 340 ,lJ,OJIJI. HYX­

@j P 2OO3

HO pa3,1J,eJIHTb Ha 200JY Bac nonyqHTCH 1, KOTOPYIO BhI 3aTeM YMHOXHTe Ha 100, B pe3YJIbTare qero nonyqHTe 100. 31'0 MoxeT BbIfJIH,lJ,eTb myno ,lJ,O rex nop, nOKa BhI He, noitMere, ~O eCJIH BhI C,IJ,eJIaeTe nO,lJ,06Hoe BbIqHCJIeHHe ,IJ,JIH' nOCJIe.nyIOmHX rO,lJ,OB, TO nonyqHre HeqTO OqeHb nOJIe3Hoe. Pa3,1J,eJIHTe ,lJ,aHHhIe P2004 Ha P2OO3 H JareM YMHO:lKbTe nonyqeHHoe Ha 100 - Y Bac nonyqHTcH 108,8. 3TO ~CJIOJIerKO HHrepnpeTHPOBaTb: OHO Ha 8,8% 60JIbIIIe 100. HnH, .n.pyrHMH CJIOBaMH, YP0BeHb ueH B 2004roAY Ha 8,8% BbIIIIe, qeM ypoBem ueH 2003 roM. (Ee3ycJIOBHO, BbI yxe 3Haere 3TOT reMn HH<PJIHUHH, nOCKOJIbKY n0JIb30BaJIHCb paBeHCTBOM (5.1), npHBe­ ,lJ,eHHbIMB npe,IJ,bI.D;yIUeM no.n.paJ,IJ,eJIe.)

rnasa 5. HmpnflqHfI: nOlfeMY MHoro AeHer He 8cer,qa xopowo

101

1982-1984
108,8, a HH.LJ;e~C YPOBIDI

BhI MO:lKeTe npO,n;OJl:lKaTb, nOJlb3YHCb ,n;aHllhIMH Ha 2005 ro,n;, KOTophIe npHBe,n;eHhI B Ta6J1. 5.1. HanpHMep, P2005 = 395 ,n;OM. ECJlH BhI pa3.LJ;eJlHTe ,n;aHHhIe P 2OO5 Ha P 2OO3 H yMHO­ :lKHTe Ha 100, y BIlC nOJIyqHTCH 116,2; ypOBeHb JJ;eH B 2005 ro.ny Ha 16,2% 60Jlbme YPOBIDI JJ;eH

2003 ro,n;a.

BhI'IHCJlHTb TeMn HHcPJUlJJ;HH B nepHO,n; C 2004 no 2005 ro,n;bI C nOMOmbIO 3THX HH.LJ;eKCOB TO:lKe JlerKO. IloCKOJlbKY HH.LJ;eKC YPOBl:I:H JJ;eH 2004 ro,n;a COCTaBJUleT

JJ;eH 2005 - 116,2; TeMn HH<pJlHJJ;HH c(,cTaBHT (116,2 - 108,8) / 108,8 = 0,068, HJIH 6,8%.

(3,n;ecb BhI HCnOJlb3yeTe paBeHCTBO (5.1), HO BMecTO ,n;eil:cTBHTeJlbHoil: CTOHMOCTH nOTpe6H­ TeJIbCKOil: KOp3HHbI BbI CTaBHTe 3HaqeHIDI HH.LJ;eKca.)

fpa<pHK Ha pHC. 5.1 orpa:lKaeT <paKTJ1qecKoe 3HaqeHHe MIlQ CIllA C 1983 no 2003 ro,n;bI. MH.LJ;eKC 6bIJI YCTaHOBJIeH Ha OTMeTKe 100, HCnOJlb3yH cpe,n;HHe 3HaqeHIDI JJ;eH B TeqeHHe .LJ;BYX­

Jlernero nepHo,n;a, T.e. B ro,n;ax.

neplo1o,l1

PJIIC. 5.1. MH~eKc norpe6J11renbCKJllx l.leH CWA B 1983-2003 ro~ax

BbI MO:lKere BH,IIeTb, 'ITO HH.LJ;eKC norpe6HTeJlbCKHX JJ;eH BhIpOC C YPOBIDI 100 B 1983 ro,n;y ,n;o YPOBIDI 185 B 2003. 9TO 3Ha'iHT, ':ITO .LJ;JUI TOro, qT06hI npH06pecTH Te TOBaphI,KOTophIe norpe6mIeT cpe,n;HeCTarnCTJ1qeCKlUI ceMbH H3 qeTyPeX tleJIOBeK, B 2003 ro.ny BaM Hy)KH0 6h1JIO 6hI norpaTHTb Ha 85% 60Jlbme ,n;eHer, qeM B 1983. YBeJIHqeHHe 06111eil: MaCChI ,n;eHer 3a 20 JleT no.LJ;IDIJIO JJ;eHbI Ha 85%.

OnpeAenReM AeMCTBMTenbHblM ypoBeHb )l(M3HM C nOMO.LI.\blO MHAeKCa l.4eH

Ii~.: ~ .

IloMHMo Toro, 'iTO HH.LJ;eKChI JJ;eH 06JIeNaIOT 3a.rraqy H3MepeHIDI HH<pJlHJJ;HH H ee HHTepnpeTaJJ;HH, OHH eme ynpomaIOT H3MepeHHe OqeHb BaJKHOit Pa3HHJJ;bI Me)K,LJ;y peaJIbHhIMH JJ;eHaMH H HOMHHaJIbHhIMH. HOMUJUl./lbHOR 14eHa - 3TO npOCTo JJ;eHa, BbIpa:lKeHHaH B ,n;eHe:lKHOM 3KBHBaJleHTe, KOTOpaH MO:lKeT H3MeIDITbCH C TeqeHHeM

102

'Iscn II. MSKP03KOHOMHKS - HSyKS 06 3KOHOMHfleCKOM pocr8 H CrS6HRltHOCrH

BpeMeHH H3-3a HH<pJUlUHH. TIOCKOJIbKY HOMHHaJIbHhIe ueHbI MOryr MeIDlTbCH, 3KO­ HOMHCTaM HpaBHTCH pa60TaTb C peaJIbHbiMU 1{eHaMU, KOTOphIe H3MeHHIOTCH B 3aBH­ CHMOCTH OT TOro, OTCKOJIbKHX e,nHHHU O,nHOrO BH,lJ;a TOBapa BhI ,nOJDKHhI OTKaJaTb­ CH, 'IT06hI lIorryqHTb ,npyroit BH,lJ; Tosapa, 6e30THOCUTeJIbHO HOMHHaJIbHhIX ueH.

TIpe,nIlOJIO)KHM, 'ITO B 2003 ro.uy BhI 1I0JIY'laJIH 10 ,nOJIJI. B 'lac, a U:U<ppOBOit BH,lJ;eo,nHCK CTO­

HJI 20 ,nOJIJI. PeaJIbHaR 1{eHa BH,lJ;eo,nHCKa ,lJ;JIH Bac pasHa ,nBYM 'IaCaM pa60ThI. TIpe,nIlOJIOXGtM, 'ITO B CJIe,nyIOmeM ro,ny ueHhI Ha Bce TOBaphI y,nBaHBaIOTCH, HO H BaIIIa 3apIIJIaTa TO:lICe 110­

BhIIIIaeTCH B,nBoe, 1I03TOMY Tellepb BhI 1I0nyqaeTe 20 ,nOJIJI. B 'lac, a AHCK CTOHT 40 ,nOJIJI.

B pe3YJIbTaTe OKa3hIBaeTCH, 'ITO BaM HY:lKH0 pa60TaTb Bce Te :lICe,nBa 'Iaca, 'IT06hI IIpH06pecTH TOT :lICe ,nHCK. 11 XOTH HOMHHaJIbHaH ueHa y,nBOHJIaCb, peaJIbHaR 1{eHaB lIepeBo,ne Ha 'IaCbI pa60­ TbI - CKOJIbKO TPy,na BaM HY:JKHO 3aTPaTHTb, 'IT06hI 1I0JIY'lHTb ,nHCK, - OCTaJIaCb HeH3MeHHoit.

COCTaBJUIH ueHOBhIe HH,lJ;eKChI 1I0,n06HO I1TIU; 3KOHOMHCThI MOryr CKa3aTb, KaK H3 ro,na B ro,n MeHHeTCH peaJIbHblU ypoeeHb :J#CU3HU JIIO,neit. B rrpHMepe, IIpHBe,neHHOM B IIpe,nhI.lJYIUeM paJ,neJIe (c HCIIOJIb30BaHHeM ,naHHhIX H3 Ta6JI. 5.1), HH<PJIHUHH B lIepHO,n C 2003 110 2004 ro,nhI COCTaBHJIa 8,8%, 'ITO 03Ha'IaeT, 'ITO CTOHMOCTb XGt3HH THIIH'IHOrO CTY,neHTa KOJIJIe,lJ;:lKa 1I0A­ HHJIaCb Ha 8,8%. TI03TOMY, eCJIH B 3T0 :lICe BpeMH ,nOXO,nhI CTYAeHTa 1I0,lJ;HHMYTCH JIHIIIb Ha 5%,

CTy,neHThI OKa:JKyTCH B 3aTPy,nHHTeJIbHOM 1I0JIO:llCeHHH, 1I0TOMY ~o 3aTPaThI 6yAYT paCTH, a ,no- . XOAhI He 6yAYT 3a HHMH 1I0ClleBaTb. PeaJIbHhIH ypOBeHb XGt3HH - T.e. ypoBeHb, H3MepHeMhIH B eAHHHUax TOro,CKOJIbKO TOsapOB BbI MO:llCeTe KYIIHTb Ha CBOH ,nOXO,nbI, - yrra,neT.

npo6neMbi MHAeKCa l4eH

I1CIIOJIb30BaHHe HH,lJ;eKCOB ueH ,lJ;JIH OTCJIe:lKHBaHHH CTOHMOCTH :lKH3HH - He 6e3yrrpe'IHaH CHCTeMa. B Heit eCTb TPH 3Ha'IHTeJIbHhIX He,nOCTaTKa•

./ IIOTPe6HTeJlJ>CIUUI KOP3HHa HHKor,na TO'IHO He 011JlUUeT ,neAcTBHTeJThHLle pac­ xo,nw ceMIoH. TIPH BhI'IHCJIeHHH I1nu; OpraHhI rocy,napcTBeHHoit CTaTHCTHKH cTapaIOTCH Ha6mo,naTb 3a TeM, 'ITO 1I0Tpe6JU1eT 06hI'IHaH ceMbH H3 'IeThIpeX 'IeJIOBeK. Ho Bce ceMbH HeIlOXO:lKH o,nHa Ha ,npYfYlO, KaK B TOM, 'tmo OHH 110­ KYIIaIOT, TalC H B. TOM, CKOJIbKO TOBapOB OHH IIpH06peTaIOT•

./ ,l(aHHwe DOTPe6H'I't!JII>CKoA KOP3HHhI ycTapeBllIOT. EIOPO CTaTHCTHKH TPYAa TPe­ 6yeTcH CJIHIIIKOM MHOro BpeMeHH AJIH TOro, 'IT06hI BKJIIO'IHTb HOBbIe BH,lJ;hI TOBapoB B lIoTPe6J1TeJIbCKyIO KOP3HHy. HallpHMep, y EIOPO YIIIJIH ro,nhI Ha TO, 'IT06hI BKJIIO'IHTb DVD-IIJIeitephI, XOTJI: DVD O'IeHb 6hICTPO 3aMeHHJIH VCR­

IIJIeitephI. ECJIH I1TIU; He BKJIIO'IaeT pacrrpOCTPaHeHHhIe HOBhIe TOBaphI, OH He 1I0JIHOCTbIO OXBaThIBaeT ueHOBhIe H3MeHeHHH, 3Ha'IHMbIe AJIH lIoTPe6HTeJIeit•

./ IIOTpe6HTeJIIoCKlUI Kop3HHa He M01KeT OTBeqaTL 3a KaqeCTBO. TIOTPe6HTeJIeit HHTepeCyIOT He roJIbKO ueHhI. HarrpHMep, 'ITO rrpOH30A:,neT, eCJIH IIHBO 6y,neT llpo,naBaTbCH 110 TOit :lICe ueHe, HO, 110 cpaBHeHHIO C IIpe,nhI.lJYIUHM ro,nOM, 6y­ ,neT YJIY'lIIIeHO ero Ka'IeCTBO? BbI 1I0JIY'lHTe JIY'lIIIee IIHBO 110 TOit :lICe ueHe, HO 3TO He 6y,neT OTPa:lKeHO B ,naHHhIX. 3Ta IIp06JIeMa OC06eHHO Ba:lKHa AJIH TaKHX IIpO,nYKTOB, KaK KOMllbIOTepbI, COTOBbIe TeJIe<poHbI H BH,lJ;eOHrpbI. Ka'IeCTBO

,3TOit IIPO.lJYKUHH YJIY'lIIIaeTCR H3 rOAa B rOA, TOr,na KaIC ueHhI OCTaIOTCR IIpe:llC­ HHMH HJIH ,na:lKe Ha':IHHaIOT CHH:lKaTbCR.

Ka:lK,lJ;WI H3 3THX IIp06JIeM 3aTPy,nHReT pa60TY CTaTHCTIflIeCKHX rocy,napCTBeHHhIX CJ1)')K6, KOTopbIe IIOCTORHHO pa60TaIOT Ha,n YJIY'lIIIeHHeM ueHOBhIX HH,lJ;eKCOB H CTaTHCTH'IeCKHX MeTO­ AOB, CTapaHCb 1I060pOTb BhIIIIellepe'IHCJIeHHhIe TPy,nHOCTH. <PeAepaJIbHbIH pe3epB CIlIA (op­

rnasa 5. HHt/JnflI.lMfI: nOlfeMY MHoro ,qeHer He Bcer,qa xopowo

103

raHHJalI,IDI, OTBeqaJOUlllll 3a pOCT ,neHe~OH MaCChI) He,naBHO 06Hapo,noBaJI pe3YJIbTaThI HCCJIe­ ,nOBaHHH, r,ne YTBeP)l{,ll;aJIOCb, qTO HTIlI, npeYBeJI~HBaeT YPOBeHb HHlPIDIQHH Ha 1-2% B ro,n. DOJIbIIIHHCTBO npeYBeJI~eHHHnpOHcxo,nHT H3-3a Hecnoc06HoCTH HTIlI, yqHThIBaTb HOBbie

TOBaphI H KaqeCTBeHHble YJIyqIIIeHIDI.

fJIaBHhIM pe3YJIbTaTOM 3Toro npeYBeJI~eHIDIiIBJIHeTC~ TO, qTO npaBHTeJIbCTBO qpe3Mep­ HO Ule.npo YBeJIH'lHBaeT ,nOXO,nhI CJIyx<.:aUlHX H neHCHOHepoB ,ll;IDI OllJIaThI 3TOro nOBhIIIIeHHoro

YPOB~ CroHMOCTH xrn:3HH. I<ax<.nhIH ro,n rocy,napCTBeHHble CJIyx<.:aUlHe H neHCHOHepbl nonyqa­ lOT LleHexmyro npH6aBKY, OCHOBaHHYIO Ha YBeJI~emt:HHTIlI,. 3TH npH6aBKH npeLlHa3HaqeHhI ,ll;IDI TOro, qro6bI 06e30naCHTb peaJIbHhIe LlOXO,nhI JIlOLleH OT pa3pymHTeJIbHOro B03LleHCTBH~ HH4>JumHH, HOnOCKOJIbKY HTIlI" no BceH BePO~OCTH,exeroLlHo npeYB~HBaeTnpoQeHT HH4>JumHH, eTOHMOCTb XH3HH YBeJI~HBaeTC~CJIHIIIKOM 6hICrpO.

CliiottJl,()cliib d'l'l'lIll,eZ(); JttUlItJtQ.;tbJtaJl

It ftetUbH.Q,$lll.ft()~m*Jtbtecliiadltlt

TIOCKOJIbKY HHlPIDIQH~ YMeHbIIIaeT CTOHMOCTb noraIIIeHH~ CCYLlhI (3a LleTaIDIMH 06pamaHTecb K pa3Lleny "Pe3YJIbTaThI HHlPJI~QHH" BhIIIIe B 3TOH maBel, 3KOHO­

MHCThI ,nOJI)l(HhI LleJIaTb pa3JI~IDI Me)l{,ll;Y HOMUHaJlbHblMU npO~eHmHblMU Cma8KaMU

H peaJIbHblMU npo,.eHmHblMU Cma8KaMU. HOMHHaJIbHhIe npoQeHTHhIe CTaBKH - 3TO 06~Hble npOQeHTHhIe CTaBKH, KOTOPbIMH BhI nOJIh3yerecb; OHH H3Mep~IOT,noxo,n­

HOCTb Kpe,nHTa B BHLle OTHOIIIeHIDI B03BpaUlaeMoH CYMMhI LleHer K CYMMe, B3nOH B LlOJIr. A peaJIbHhIe npOQeHTHhIe CTaBKH BhI'DlCIDIIOTC~C nonpaBKoH Ha HHlPIDI­ QHlO, H3Mep~ B03BpaT KpeLlHTOB B nepecqe-re Ha e,nHHHQhI BhI,ll;aHHhIX B BHLle 3aH­ Ma nPOLlYKTOB H e,nHHHUhI B038paUleHHhIX npo.nyKTOB. 31'0 pa3JIH'lHe OqeHb BaxHO, nOTOMY qrO HMeHHO peaJIbHaJI ITpoQeHTHllll CTaBKa C03,naeT Y JllOLleH XeJIaHHe HaKa­ llJIHBaTb LleHbrH H COBepIIIaTb KanHTaJIOBJIOXeHIDl. BeLlb qTO B ,neACTBHTeJIbHOCTH 3a6OTHT Kpe,nHTopoB? He TO, CKOJIbKO ,neHe~OH MaCChI OHH nOJIyqaT 06paTHO, a TO, CKOJIbKO TOBapOB OHH CMOryr npH06pecTH Ha 3TH LleHbrH.

TIpeLlnOJIOXHM, qTO BhI o,nOJDKRJlll 1000 ,nOJIJI., no06eUlaB qepe3 roLl BhIllJIaTHTb KpeLlH­ ropy 1100 ,nOJIJI. BaIIIa HOMHHaJIbHa~npOQeHTHllll CTaBKa COCTaBIDleT 10%, nOTOMY qTO BhI

c06HPaeTecb BePHYTb Ha 100 LlOJlJI. 60JIbIIIe, HJIH Ha 10% 6oJIbIIIe, qeM BhI 3aHHMaJIH. Ho eCJIH npOH30H,neT'HHlPIDIUIDI, KO~eCTBOTOBapa, KOTopoe BbIM\lXeTe KYITHTb Ha 100 ,nOJIJI.,C Te­ qeHHeM BpeMeHH YMeHbIIIHTC~.

TIpeLlnOJIOXHM, qTO XOPOIIIHH 06eLl Ha ',nBOHX C 6YThIJIKOH BHHa ceAqac CTOHT

100,nOJIJI., HO 6YLleT CTOHTb 105,noJIJI. B CJIe.l!YlOUleM roLlY. Cdtqac KpeLlHTOP OT­ Ka3hIBaeTC~ OT 10 3THX OqeHb XOpOIIIHX 06e,noB (1000 LlOJIJI., pa3LleJIeHHhIX Ha

100 LlOJIJI. 3a OLlHH 06eLl), ,ll;IDI TOroqr06hI BhI.llaTb BaM Kpe,nHT. B cne.nyIOUleM roLlY,

KorLla Oli nOJIyqHT Ha3a,D; 1100 LlOJIJI., OH MoxeT KYnHTb 10,47 06e,noB no ueHe 105,noJIJI. OH OTKa3hIBaeTC~OT 10 06e,nOB ceAtIac B nepecqere Ha 10,47 06eLloB Ha

CJIe.nyIOUlHA ro,n, qTO 03HaqaeT: peaJIbHllll npOQeHTHllll CTaBKa no KpeLlHTY COCTaB~

IDIeT 4,7%. H3-3a HH~UHHpeaJIbHllll npoueHTHllll CTaBKa no KpeLlHTY OCHOBa­ TeJIbHO MeHbIIIe CTaBKH HOMHHaJIbHOH.

Kor,na 3aHMOLlaBQhI H 3aeMmHKH ,noroBapHBalOTC~0 HOMHHaJIbHO-H npOQeHTHOH CTaBKe no Kpe,nwry, OHH CTapaIOTC~onpe,neJIHTb, Ka~ ITpoQeHTHllll CTaBKa HH~HH6y,neT no HC­ TeqeHHH cpoKa 3aHMa. 3TOT OJICUOaeMblu meMn umpJlJl"uu 0603HaqaeTC~ B aJIre6paHqeCKot.i

104 'ISCTb II. MBKPOeKOHOMHKB - HBYJCS 06 3KOHOMHifeCKOM pOCTe H cTs6HnbHOCTH

cPoPMYJIe KaK .ne(He nepenyra:iITe OXH.llaeMYIO HHcPJUUJ.HIO, ne , C .n;eHCTBHTeJIbHOH HHcPJUI­ UHeH, n. nepBasI - JIIO.n;H npe.n;nOJIaraIOT, 'ITO npoH30tt.D;eT C TetIeHHeM BpeMeHH, Tor.n;a KaK nOCJIe.n;IDUl - TO, tITO npOHcxo.n;HT B .n;eHCTBHTeJIbHOCTH.) CJIe.nyIOID;He no.n;pa3.n;eJIbI noIGUKyr BaM, KaK B~HCJIHTb H HCnOJIb30BaTb 3TOT nOKa3aTeJIb.

YpaBHeHMe C1)Mwepa

@j

3KOHOMHCT HpBHHr <l>HIlIep pa3paOOraJI npOCTOe ypaBHeHHe, H3BeCTHOe KaK ypa8­

HeHue (/Juwepa, KOTOpoe CBg3bIBaeT HOMHHaJIbH)'lO H peaJIbH)'lO npoueHTH)'lO CTaB­

KH. HCnOJIb3yeM i )]..JUl 0603HaQeHHH HOMHHaJIbHOH npoueHTHOH CTaBKH H r -

)J)UI

 

0603HatIeHHH peaJIbHOH npoueHTHOH CTaBKH:

 

 

i = r + ne

(5.3)

3m ypaBHeHHe nOKa3bIBaeT, tITO HOMHHaJIbHasI npoueHTHasI CTaBKa - 3T0 peaJIbHasI npo­ ueHTHasI CTaBKa llJIlOC o:llrn.n;aeMbIH TeMn HHcPJUlUHH. 3TO OTHOIlIeHHe OQeHb BIDKHO )J)UI 3a­ eMID;HKOB H IqJe.n;HTOpOB, nOTOMY 'ITO XOTg Bce Kpe.n;HTHble KOHTPaKTbI H yCTaHaBJIHBalOT HO­

MHHaJIbHYIO npoueHTHYIO CTaBKY, HX ueJIb - .n;OCTHtIb ,KOHKpeTHOH peaJIbHOH npoueHTHOH

CTaBKH, HeCMOTpg Ha HHcPJUlUHOHHOe COKpaID;eHHe CTOHMOCTH .n;eHer. HcnoJIb3yg' ypaBHeHHe <l>HIlIepa, 3aeMII.J;HKH H Kpe.n;HTopbI MOryr onpe.n;eJIHTb, KaKyIO HOMHHaJIbH)'lO CTaBKY yCTaHO­ BHTb B .n;aHHbIil MOMeHT C TeM, qro6bI nonyqHTb .n;aHH)'lO peaJIbH)'lO CTaBKY B03BpaTa, npHHH­ MasI BO BHHMaHHe OXH.llaeMbIH YPOBeHb HHcPJIHUHH.

AJrn TOro tIT06bl YBH.lI:eTb cPoPMYJIY (5.3) B .n;eHCTBHH, npe.n;nOJIOJlGfM, 'ITO 3aHMo.n;aBeu H 3aeMID;HK .n;OroBOpHJIHCb, tITO 6% - 3TO npHeMJIeMasI peaJIbHasI npOueHTHasI CTaBKa. H OHH

TalOKe .n;oroBOpHJIHCb, 'ITO 'Iepe3 ro.n; HHcPJUlUHH, CKopee Bcero, 6y.n;eT 3,3%. I1cnOJIb3yJl ypaB­ HeHHe <l>HIlIepa, OHH COCTaBJIJlIOT IqJe.n;HTHbIii: .n;orOBOp, YKa3aB 9,3% KaK HOMHHaJIbH)'lO npo­ ueHTHYIO CTaBKY. fo.n; cnYCTJI, Kor.n;a 3aeMID;HK BbIllJIaTHT Kpe.n;HTOpy Ha 9,3% 60JIbille .n;eHer, tIeM 6bIJIO 3aHHTO, 3TH .n;eHbrH 6y.n;yr HMeTb - KaK OXH.llaeTCg - TOJIbKO Ha 6% 60JIbille noKY­ naTeJIbCKoii: cnoC06HOCTH, He)KeJIH 3aHHTble, npH .n;aHHOM OXH.llaeMOM YBeJIHtIeHlfil ueH.

HeTOliHOCTb npOrH030B

Pe3YJIbTaTbI neperoBopoB Me)K)l;y Kpe.n;HTOpOM H 3aeMID;HKOM BO MHOroM 3aBHCHT OT oueH­

1m O)KH)l;aeMoro ypOBHH HHcPJIgUHH, ne, H eCTb MHoro 3KOHOMHCTOB, tIbJI pa60Ta· COCTOHT B nOnbITKax npe.n;CKa3aTb 6y.ny:m:HH ypOBeHb HHcPJUlUHH. I1x nporn03bI IlIHpOKO OCBeID;aIOTCJI B

.n;eJIOBOH npecce, HO Ka)K)l;bIH tIeJIOBeK HMeeT c06cTBeHHbIe npe.n;nOJIO)KeHHH HaCtIeT HHcPJUI­ UHH H HCnOJIb3yeT )]..JUl 3TOro pa3Hble MeTO.n;bI. HeKOTopbIe npe.n;nOtIHTalOT npHCJIYIlIHBaTbCJI K MHeHHIO CneUHaJIHCTOB, TOr.n;a KaK .n;pyrHe COCTaBJIJlIOT nporn03bI, OCHOBaHHble Ha Co6cTBeH­ HOM JlGf3HeHHOM OnbITe.

O.n;HaKO H~O no.n;qepKHyrb, 'ITO nOCKOJIbKY npe.n;nOJIO)KeHHg He MOryr 6bITb TOtIHbIMH Ha 100%, HloIKTO He MO)KeT CKa3aTb C YBepeHHOCTblO, KaKOH HMeHHO 6y.n;eT peanbHasI npo­ ueHTHasI CTaBKa no B03Bpary Kpe.n;HTa. HanpHMep, eCJIH ypoBeHb HH<l>JrnUHH 6y.n;eT 9,3%, KaK B npe.n;bmymeM npHMepe, 3HatIHT, peaJIbHbIH ypOBeHb npOueHTHOH craBKH B03BpamaeMoro Kpe.n;HTa 6y.n;eT paBeH O. C .n;pyroH C1'OpOHbI, eCJIH YPOBeHb HHcPJUlUHH COCTaBHT 0%, 3HaqHT, Kpe.n;HTOp nonyqHT Ha 9,3% 60JIbille .n;eHer H CMO)KeT KYllHTb Ha 9,3% 60JIbille TOBapOB, 'ITO 3HatIHT: peaJIbHasI npOueHTHasI CTaBKa B03BpaID;aeMoro Kpe.n;HTa COCTaBHT 9,3%. (CM. pa3.n;eJI "BJIHHHHe 3aeMID;HKOB: HHcPJIJIIJ;HOHHasI nOJIHTHKa", B HeM .n;aeTCJI o6'bgCHeHHe, nOtIeMY 3aeM­

IIJ.HKaM HpaBHTCJI HHcPJUlUHH, a IqJe.n;HTOpaM - HeT.)

CxeMa, H306p~eHHasIHa pHC. 5.2, 0TP~aeT cPaKTHtIeCKHH TeMn HHcPJUlUHH BMeCTe C 0XH.llaeMbIM cpe.n;HHM TeMnOM HHcPJUlUHH. <l>aKTHtIeCKHe TeMnbI HHcPJUlUHH nonyqeHbI Ha

rnSB8 5. HHtI'nflqMfI: nOlfeMY ",Horo AeHer He BcerAS XOpOWO

105

OCHOBe eXeMeCWiHbIX nOKa3aTeJIetl: lUlU" a mrrn,ll,aeMble TeMnblnOJIy'leHbl B pe3YJIbTaTe on­ poca nOTPe6HTeJIetl:, npOBoLlHMOro KaJICLlbltl: MeCHU CneUHaJIHCTaMH MHqHraHcKoro YHHBep­ CHTeTa. Bbl Mo.lKtIT BHL\eTh, 'ITO q,aKTIl'iecKaH HHlPJIHUIDI MeJKL\Y HHBapeM 1980 rOLla H HHBapeM

1981 roLla COCTaBJIHJIa OKOJIO 13%. I101pe6HTeJIH, KOTOpbIX onpawHBaJIH B HHBape 1980 rOLla no nOBOLlY HX HHq,JIHUHOHHbIX OJKHL\aHHif Ha 6JIHJKatl:uIHe 12 MeCHueB, CKa3aJIH HCCJIeLlOBaTe­ MM, 'ITO OHH 0JKHLlaIOT POCT ueH npHMepHO Ha 10% 3a roLl. B 3TOM OTLleJIbHOM npHMepe q,aK­

~eCKaHHH<lJJIHUHH npeBbICHJIa OJlCHLlaeMyIO 06b1'IHblMH nOTPe6HTeJIHMH npHMepHO Ha 3%.

 

16

,---------------..,..,--...

,.....,.-'":"""'----~-__:_1

 

14 +--A---....

:----'---_...

__......:C_...;............

----......---...;...0.4

 

12

tt~~-~~..,...-:.-~~7"T~~~~~~~77Tj

!r

10

-r--:7\fV1~~-~~~~""""':~~~~~~~~~~~~:--1

~8+-1r+_~"r_-:.._-:.....;...

~-~..;.;..;.;.;;.-~,-.:.:...

,....;..:.~;,...;;....

:;;i....:-.;.;;.. .....;...:....l:..i.I.:....~

8.

6

 

 

 

 

c

~"'""--:..:.~f...:.:.:...

:.:....-~~;,;.;..::.;..:.:.:.~

 

4 r~,....,te~~~

nep~OA

PHC. 5.2. O)/(H,IJ,8eMafl H cPaKTWleCKafl ro,Qosafl HHcPnfl~HfI

KaK BbI MoxeTe BHL\eTh, HaqHHaH C 1980 rOLla LlBe JIHHHH Ha rpaq,HKe 6blJIH nOpa3HTeJIbHO

6JlH3KH, 'ITO 3HaqHT: OJKHLlaHHH JIIOLletl: no nOBOLlY HHq,JIHUHH 3a npoIIIeLlIIIHe LlBa .ueCHTHJIe­ THH 06b1'IHO OTJIHqaJIHCb OT q,a~ecKHX He 6oJIee, qeM Ha 1%. KOHelfHo, YKaJaHHbltl: nepH­

OLl OTHOCHTCH K TOMY nepHOLlY B HCTOpHH 3KOHOMHKH CIlIA, KOma roCYLlapcTBY YLlaJIOCb CHH­ 3HTh H cTa6HJIH3HpOBaTh npoueHT HHq,JIHUHH. 3TOT npOueHT 6blJIO He CJIOJICHO npeLlCKaJaTh, n03TOMY Bac' He LlOJIJlCHO YLlHBJIHTb, 'ITO JIIOLlH npeLlnOJIararrH ero LlocTaTolfHo TOqHO. C LlPYIT1if CTOpOHbI, BO BpeMH rHnepHHq,JIHUHH npOrn03b1 OKa3b1BaIOTCH COBceM He TaKHMH TOqHblMH.

106

'IacTb II. MaKpo3KoHoMKICa - HayKa 06 3ICOHOMK'IecICOM pOCTe K cTa6HnbHocTK

~06hInOCTapaTbCSI

rl1aBa 6

nO'IeMy npOMCXOART pe~eCCMM

BaJlit)u ~...

»npeACTaBJleHl1e 06 3KOHOMI1~eCKOM1ll<1K1le

»

»

H\3AeJKAa Ha l<1AeaJl: rl<16KOCTb lleH I1CK1lIO~aeTpelleccl1l1

CYPoBaR peaJlbHOCTb: )I(eCTKl<1e lleHbl l<1 3aTR)I(Hbie pelleccl'1l'1

»CBR3b MelKJJ,Y MeAJ1eHHblM npl1cnOC06JleHI'1eM lleH

1'1 MeAJ1eHHblM peryJll1pOBaHl'1eM 3apa60THoH nJlaTbl

»MOAeJlb KeHHca

CaMaH rJIaBHaH 3a,n;aqa MaJq>03KOHOMHCTOB 3aKJIlOqaeTCSI B TOM,

npe.nyrrpeAHTb HJIH XOTSI 6hI COKpaTHTb nepHOAhI pe~eccuu (3ICOHOMU'leCICOeO cnaiJa),

T.e. nepHOAbI, BO BpeMSI KOTOpbIX npOHCXOAHT COKpameHHe npOH3BOACTBa TOBapOB H YCJIYI'. 3KOHOMHCTbI, nOJIHTHQeCKHe AeSITeJIH H 60JIbWHHCTBO APyrHX JIIOAeH, KOTopbIe 3apa6aThI­

BalOT ce6e Ha :lKlI3Hb, OTHOCSlTCSI K cna,n;aM HeraTHBHO - H3-3a Tex BbICOKHX nOIIIJIHH, KO­

TOpbIe OHH B3HMalOT B BUAe QeJIOBeqeCKHX CTPa,n;aHHH. 3TO npOHCXOAHT nOTOMy, qTO KOr,lJ;a CHIDKaeTCSI ypOBeHb npOH3BOAcTBa, npeAnpHSlTHSlM HYJKHO MeHbwee KOJIHqeCTBO pa60THH­ KOB. THnJllIHhIM pe3YJIbTaTOM 3Toro SlBJlSlIOTCSI MaCCOBhIe YBOJIbHeHHSI pa60qHX H C.JIyxamHX.

B KpyrrHbIX CTPaHax THna CoeAHHeHHbIX IIITaTOB AMepHKH MHJIJIHOHhI TPYASlIIJ;HXCSI TepSiIOT pa60TY, a BMeCTe C HelO - B03MOlKHOCTb Cop;ep)l(aTb ce6S1 H CBOH ceMbH.

B 3TOH maBe HCrrOJIb3yeTcSI MOAeJIb coomHoweHUR c08oICynHoeo npeiJAOJICeHUR U c08olCynHo­

eo cnpoca AJISI TOro, ~06hI rrpop;eMOHCTPHpOBaTb, KaK 3KOHOMHCThI aHaJIH3HpYIOT npou;eCChI, npOHCXOASlIll;He BO BpeMSI peu;eCCHH. 06b1'1HO peueCCHH Ha~HaIOTCSIC TOro, qTO 3KOHOMHCThI

JII06SIT Ha3hIBaTb WOICaMU - HeO)l(U)J;aHHbIX IIJIOXHX C06hITHH THna reppOpHCrnqeCKHX aKTOB, npHpOP;HbIX KaTaKJIH3MOB, HenpaBHJIbHOH rocYAapCTBeHHOH nOJIHTHKH HJIH BHe3aIIHoro B3JIe­ Ta u;eH Ha Ba)l(HhIe rrpHpoAHJjIe peCypchI THna HelPTH.

IIepBbrH 60JIbWOH YPOK~KOTOpbIit JIY)KHO H3BJIeTh H3 3TOH maBhI, 3aKJIIOQaeTCSI B CJIeAYIO­ IIJ;eM: eCJIH 6b1 ueHhI Ha TOBaphI H yCJIYrH B 3KOHOMHKe MomH CB060AHO npHcnoca6JIHBaTbCSI K H3MeHeHHSlM cnpoca H npeAJIO)l(eHHSI, KOTopbIe BbI3bIBalOTCSI nOTPSlceHHSlMH, 3KOHOMHKa, KaK npaBHJIO, 6bIJIa 6bI cnoc06Ha OqeHb 6hICTPO BOCCTaHOBHTbCSI. Ho, K CO)l(aJIeHHIO, BTO­ POH 60JIbWOH YPOK JaKJIIOQaeTCSI B TOM, qTO He Bee ueHhI, cyw;eCTBYIOIIJ;He B peaJIbHOM MHpe, nOJIHOCTbIO CB060AHhI AJISI H3MeHeHHSI BO BpeMSI nOTPSlCeHHH. BOJIee TOro, HeKoTopbIe OQem Ba)l(HbIe ueHhI KOppeKTHpYIOTCSI AOCTaTOQHO MeAJIeHHO - 3TO, KaK JII06S1T HX Ha3bIBaTb 3KO­ HOMHCThI, JlCecmlCue ~eHbl (u;eHbI, KOTopbIe OCTalOTCSI HeH3MeHHbIMH npH H3MeHeHHH COBO­ KyrrHOro cnpoca B KpaTKOCpOQHOH nepCneKTHBe. - IIpUMe'l. nep.). B pe3YJIbTare peu;eccHH MOryT 3aTSlrHBaTbCSI H npHBOAHTb KO MHO)l(eCTBY HenpHSlTHbIX nOCJIeACTBHH. TaK 6yp;eT rrpo­ HCXOP;HTb AO Tex nop, nOKa BMeWareJIbCTBO rocYAapCTBa He nOMO)l(eT 3KOHOMHKe 6bICTPee BOCCTaHOBHTbCSI. (B maDe 7 npHBOASITCSI npliMepbI caMbIX AeHCTBeHHbIX BMeWaTeJIbCTB rocy­ p;apCTBa B 3KOHOMJIlIeCKHe npouecchI.)

Y Dpe,ll;:­

3KOHOMHKa npOXO,ll;HT CKB03b qepe.nyIOmHeCH nepHO,ll;bI, BO BpeMH KOTOpbIX npOH3BO,lI;CTBO TOBapOB H yc.rryr YBeJInqHBaeTCH, a 3aTeM COKpamaeTCH. B maBe 4 06'MIcIDIeTCH, lfTO

CTIlBJUIeT 06UJ;H1t o61.eM npOH3BO,lI;CTBa B 3KOHOMHKe, no3TOMY B 3TOM pa3,!J;eJIe H HCnOJIb3ytO Y

,!J;JIH 3KOHOMHH CJIOB.

nepHO,ll;HqeCKOe paCIIIHpeHHe H COKpameHHe npOH3BO,ll;CTBa, KOTopoe H306paJKeHO Ha pHC. 6.1, qaCTO Ha3bIa3.0T 31WHOMUlteCKUM ~UKllOM, nOTOMy ~o 3KOHOMHKa nO,ll;aepXeHa CHJIb­

HeillIIeMy BJIHHHHlO npoHcXO,ZJ;HUJ;HX H3MeHeHHiI B olYbeMe BbInycKa TOBapoB H yc.nyr.

y

 

 

 

MaKCHMYMbi (BepwHHbI

__ ' .......1 ---- ,D,ollrOCpoo.lHaSi

reHABHl.\MSI Y

3KOHOMwiecKoro l.\HKIlaj

 

/

--------

 

I

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

~MMHMMyMbi (noAowBbI

3KOHOMWiBCKoro l.\MK11aj

BpeMSI

PHC. 6. 1. 3KOHOMHl4eCKHH I..IHKJI

CnJIOIllHaH JIHHHH Ha pHC 6.1 npe,ll;CTaBJUleT Ji3M~HeHHHY BO BpeMeHH. BeplIIHHbI H nO,ll;OlIIBbI UHKJIa qepe,!J;ytOTCH, qro nOMoraer HJJ.eHTHcPHunpoBaTb nepHO,!l;bI cna,ZJ;OB H nOll,'beMOB. BOT KaK 3KOHOMHCTbI pa3n;emnoT 3TH nOIDITHH•

./

Pe~eccUR, KnH cna,ZJ;, - 3m nepHOn; BpeMeHH, KOr,ll;a Y na,ZJ;aer; 3m nepHO,ll; Me­

 

)I{,ZJ;y MaKCHMYMOM (nHKoM, aeplIIHHoil) H CJIe,!l;YJOUJ;HM MHHHMYMOM (nO,ll;OlII­

 

BOil) 3KOHOMnqeCKoro UHKJIa•

./

BoccmaHo8AeHue, HJIH nOll,'beM, ­ ::ITO nepHO,ll; BpeMeHH, KOr,ll;a Y B03paCTaeT;

 

3m nepHO,ll; nOCJIe MHHHMYMa (nO,ll;OlIIBbI),lI;O CJIe,!l;YJOmero MaKCHMyMa (nHKa)

 

3KOHOMnqeCKoro UHKJIa.

nYHKTHpHaH JIHHHH Ha pHC. 6.1 npe.z:tcTaBJIHeT ,lI;OJII'OBpeMeHHyJO, B3HTYJO B Cpe,ll;HeM TeH­ ,lI;eHlIHlO H3MeHeHHH Y. KaK BH,!J;HM, rpacPHK aTpaJKaeT TeH,!J;eHUHIO ,lI;OJIroBpeMeHHoro pOCTa Y.

3ro COOTBeTCTByeT TOMy cPaKTy, lfTO Tenepb B 60JIblIIHHCTBe CTPaH HMeeT MeCTO YCTOi{qHBbIiI 3KOHOMWIeCKHiI pOCT. ,lWyrHMH CJIOBaMH, B3S1TIU1 B Cpe,ll;HeM npOH3BOD;HTeJIbHOCTb paCTeT H3 ro,ll;a B ro,ll;. O,ll;HaKO, nOCKOJIbKY ace ew:e B03HHKaIOT nepHO;:tbI 3KOHOMHtleCKoro cna,ZJ;a, cPaK­

108

lIacTIJ II_ MalCp03KOHOMlfKB - HSYKa 06 3KOHOMlflfeCKOM pocTe If cTs6lfnIJHOCTIf

Тут вы можете оставить комментарий к выбранному абзацу или сообщить об ошибке.

Оставленные комментарии видны всем.