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vi' Heo:lKH)].aHHo HH3KHH COBOKYDHbIH cnpoc 3Ha~, qro npo)).a:lKH na)].aIOT Ha­ CTOJIbKO, ~o MaTepHaJIbHbIe 3anaCbI yBeJIHqHBaIOTCH H )).ocmraIOT ypOBHH, npeBbIIlIaIOmero QeJIeBOH.

vi' HeO:lKH)].aHHO BbICOKHH COBOKYDHbIH cnpoc 3Ha~, qro npO)).a:lKH YBeJIHqHBa­ IOTCH HacTOJIbKO, qro 3anaCbI COKPamaIOTCH H He )).OCTImUOT QeJIeBOro ypoBHH.

YsenHlfeHHe HnH COKpau.ceHHe 06"eAfa npoH3sO,ltCTsa npH Kone6aHHH ypOSHII 3anacos

HeoxomaHHO 60JIbIlIHe H3MeHeHHH 3anaCOB MarepHaJIbHhlX o60poTHhlX cpe)).CTB npHBO)].HT IPHPMbI K CJIe.lJYIOIUHM H3MeHeHHHM ypoBHH npoH3BO)).CTBa.

vi' BeJIH ypoBeHb MaTepHaJIbHhlX 3anaCOB npeBbIlliaeT QeJIeBOH ypoBeHb, IPHPMbI pearHPYIOT cOKpameHHeM npOH3Bo)).cTBa. Kor)).a TeMn pOCTa npOH3BO)).CTBa CTaHOBHTCH HH:lKe TeMna pOCTa npo)).a:lK, MaTepHaJIbHbIe JanaCbI HalJHHaIOT CHH:lKaTbCH OTHOCHTeJIbHO QeJIeBoro ypoBHH.

vi' ECJIH YPOBeHb MarepHaJIbHhlX 3anaCOB OKa3bIBaeTCH HH:lKe QeJIeBoro ypoBHH, IPHPMbI peamPYIOTYBeJIHqeHHeM npoH3BO)).cTBa. Kor,n;a TeMn pOCTa npOH3­ BO)).CTBa CTaHOBHTCH BbIllie reMna pOCTa npo)).a:lK, MarepHaJIbHbIe 3anaCbl YBe­

JI~HBaIOTCH.

H3MeHeHHe ypOBHH npOH3BO)).CTBa, BbI3BaHHOe H3MeHeHHHMH 3anaCOB MaTepHaJIbHbIX 060POTHblX Cpe)).CTB, lJpe3BMqaiIHo BlDKHO, nOTOMY ~o OHO nOKa3bIBaeT He TOJIbKO ro, YBe­ JI~HBaeTCHnpo.lJYKT (y) HJIH YMeHbIlIaeTCH, HO TaK:lKe paCTeT HJIH COKPaIUaeTCH ypOBeHb 003­ paOOTHQbI.

HanpHMep, eCJIH npe)].DpHHTHH YBeJIHqHBaIOT 06'beM npOH3BO)).CTBa nOTOMY, ~o MarepH­ aJIbHbIe 3anaCbI COKPaTHJIHCb )).0 ypOBHH, HaxO,D;HmerOCH HIDKe QeJIeBOro, HM H)'lKH0 HaHHTb 60JIbIlIe pa60'IHX, H Tor)).a 6e3pa6oTHQa nOMeT Ha yfibIJIb. C )).pyroH CroPOHbI, eCJIH IPHPMbI COKpamaIOT 06'beM npOH3BO)).CTBa, nOToMy ~o MarepHaJIbHbIe 3anaCbI npeBbICHJIH QeJIeBOH ypOBeHb, HM npHXO)).HTCH YBOJIHTb pa60'IHX, if rorM OO3pa6oTHQa B03paCTaeT.

KoppelCTHposaHHe 3anaCOS CYlfeTOAf 3annaHHpOSaHHWX

Ht/JalCTHlfeCKHX paCXOAOS

B MO)).eJIH KeHHca )).eJIaeTCH ynop Ha Pa3JIHqHH Me)K)].y JaIVIaHHPOBaHHbIMH H lPaKTHqe­ CKHMH pacxo)).aMH.

./ 3annoHUjJ080HHble POCXOObl - 9TO KOJIWleCTBO ,n:eHer, KOTOphle ,n:OMOX035IHCTBa, npe,n:rrpIDl1'IDl, rocy,n:apCTBO H Japy6eX<Hhle rr0Tpe6HTeJIH XOTeJIH 6hl rrOlpaTHTb Ha TOBapbI H YC.rryrH OTe'leCTBeHHoro rrpoH3BO,n:CTBa•

./ tP01CmUlfeCKUe POCXOObl rrpupaBHHBaIOTC5I K BaJIOBOMY BHYTPeHHeMY rrpO.n:yKTy

(BBTI), 0 KOTOpOM paCCKa3b1BaeTC5I B maBe 4. cDaKTWlecKHe pacxo,n:hl paBHbl CYMMe, KOTOPYIO B ,n:eDCTBHTeJIbHOCTH lpaT5IT Ha TOBapbl H yCJIyrH OTeqeCT­ BeHHoro rrpOH3Bo,n:CTBa ,n:OMOX035IDcTBa, rrpe,n:rrpH5ITH5I, rrpaBHTeJIbCTBO H Ja­ py6eX<Hhle rroKYIIaTeJIH.

qTO rrpOHcxo,n:HT, Kor,n:a lPaKTHqeCKHe pacxo,n:hl OTJIHqaIOTC5I OT 3aIIJIaHHpOBaHHhlX paCXO,n:OB? 3arrachl MaTepHaJIbHblX o60poTHblX cpe,n:CTB aBTOMaTHqeCKH H3MeH5IIOT­ C5I. HarrpHMep, ecml Ha TOBaphl H yc.rryru lpaTHTC5I 60JIbIIle ,n:eHer, qeM 3aIIJIaHHpO­ BaHO, JIIO,n:H rrOKYIIaIOT 60JIbIIle rrpo,n:YKTa, qeM rrpOH3Bo,n:HTC5I B ,n:aHHblH MOMeHT. 3Ta cHTYaUH5I B03MOX<Ha rrOTOMY, 'ITO lPHpMbl rrpo,n:aIOT TOBaphl H3 CBOHX MaTepH­ aJIbHbIX 3arraCOB, KOTOphle OHH C03,n:aJIH paHee. C ,n:pyroH CTOpOHhl, eCJIH JIIO,n:H lpa­ T5IT MeHbIIle ,n:eHer Ha TOBaphl H ycJIyrH, qeM 6hlJIO 3aIIJIaHupOBaHO, MaTepHaJIbHhle 3arraCbl <tlHPM YBeJIHqHBaIOTC5I, rrOTOMY qTO lPHpMhl ,n:OJIX<Hhl CKJIa,n:HpoBaTb BeCb rrpoJJ:YKT, KOTOphlH OHH He MOryT rrpo,n:aTb.

KeitHc rrpe,n:CTaDHJI 3aIIJIaHHpOBaHHhle pacxo,n:hI, PE, B BH.n;e aJIre6paWlecKoro paBeHCTBa:

qTO 03HaqaIOT Bee 3TH 6yxBbl? .sI ,n:eTaJIbHO 06b5ICH5IIO HX B maDe 4, a :meCb rrpHBe.n:y JIHIIIb KPaTKOe co,n:eplKaHHe•

)lmI: <t>aKTH'leCKHX pacxo,n:OB, Y, KeHHC HCrrOJIb30BaJI TO JKe ypaBHeHHe, KOTopoe Mhl HC­

rrOJIb3yeM JJ)UI BhI'lHCJIeHH5I BaJIOBOro BHYTPeHHero rrpOJJ:YKTa (peIJb 0 HeM H.n;eT B maBe 4):

llo'IeMY MbI MOXeM HCnOJIb30BaTb ypaBHeHHe BBll AJUI BbI'lHCJleHIDl lPaKTH'IeCKHX paCXO,llOB? KaK H 06'bHCHHIO B maDe 4, lPaK'I'H'leCKHe pacxO,llhI PaBHhI COBOKYJIHOMY ,lloxo.lly, noTOMY 'ITO B 3KOHOMHKe KaXC,llhIit KeM-TO H3paCXO,llOBaHHhUl: ueHT CTaHO­ BHTCH ,llOXO,llOM AJUI KOro-HH6y.zu, ,llpyroro. DOJIee TOro, lPaK'I'H'leCKHe paCXO,llbI TaK­ )ICe paBHbI CTOHMOCTH BCex TOBapOB ~ YCJI}T, npoH3Be,lleHHhIX 3KOHOMHKOj;(, nOTO­ MY 'ITO BCHKaH 'IaCTb npoH3Be,lleHHoro npo.uyKTa KOMY-HH6y,llb npo,llaHa. (BCHKHj;( npo.uyKT, npoH3Be,lleHHbIA lPHPMOj;(, HO KOTOpblit He MO)ICeT 6hITb npo,llaH nOTPe6H~

TeJIHM, C'IHTaeTCH "npo,llaHHbIM" lPHPMOj;( CaMoj;( ce6e, KaK 'IaCTb ee M;arepHaJIbHbIX 3anaCOB. 3TH H3MeHeHIDI 3anaCOB H3BeCTHhI KaK uH6ecmu~uu6 3anOCbl H CYMMHPY­ eTCH B BBll, KaK 'IaCTb 06w;ero 06'beMa HHBeCTHuIdt, I.)

lbyqaH MO,lleJIb Kej;(Hca, O'IeHb Y,ll06HO paCCMaTPHBaTb Y C nOMolIlblO pa3HhIX cnoco60B. I1Hor,lla JIertle nOHHTb MO,lleJIb, eCJIH BhI npe,llCTaBJUIeTe Y B BH,lle lPaKTH'leCKHX paCXO,llOB;B

.upyroe BpeMH ee JIertle nOHHMaTb, eCJlH npeACTaBHTb YB BH,lle COBOKYJIHOro AOXOAa HlIH 06'b­ eMa rtPOH3BO,llCTBa.BcHKIdt p83, KorAa R xoqy o6JIeI"lHTb nOHHMaHHe 3TOA MOAeJIH. MHe npH­ XOAHTCR nepeKJIlO'IaTbCR C OAHOro onpeAeJIeHIDl Y Ha ,lij)yTOe HJlH TPeTbe.

A renepb - HeMHOJKKO anre6pw

BhI 3H8JlH, 'ITO 3TO HeH36e>KHo: H8CTYJIHJlO BpeMH 8Jlre6paH'IeCKHX ynpUCHeHHj;(. KaKoBa Hawa UeJIb? Onpe,neJIHTb 3KOHOMH'IeCKOe paBHOBeCHe B Mo,neJIH KeAHca, HCnOJIb3YJ1 HaWH

BbIlUlIOlUHeCR MaTeMaTH'IeCKHe cnOC06HOCTH. (11T1lK, KY,na )ICe R HX no,neB8Jl?)

Bo-nepBhIX, HaM HYXHO onpe,neJIHTb ¢YHK~UIO nompe6.neHUJI - cnoco6 paCtieTa 06111ero nOTPe6JIeHHH, - KqTOPYIO MbI no,nCTaBHM B ypaBHeHHe (6.1). B maBe 4 npe,ncTaBJIeHa CJIe­

.llYIOlUaR lPOpMYJIa AJUI pactieTa nOTPe6JIeHIDl:

ECJIH BbI BHHMaTeJIbHO nOCMOTPHTe, TO YBH,llHTe, 'ITO 3TO ypaBHeHHe nOKa3bIBaeT, 'ITO 06lUaH CYMMa 3anJIaHHpOBaHHhIX paCXO,llOB Ha TOBaPbI H ycJIyrH B 3KOHOMHKe (PE) 3aBHCHT OT 06mero ,nOXO,lla B 3KOHOMHKe (n. qeM BhIwe ypoBeHb o6w;ero ,lloxo,lla, TeM 60JIbWe ,lleHer

JIIO.llH nJIaHHPYIOT nOTPaTHTb.

XopoWHA cnoc06 ynpOCTHTb 3TO ypaBHeHHe - 3TO C03.llaTb nepeMeHHyK) A H on­ pe,neJIHTb ee CJIe.llYIOW;HM 06p83oM:

A =Co+IP+G+NX

IlepeMeHHaJI A 03HaqaeT aBmOHOMHble pacxoobl, rro,n KOTOPbIMH 3KOHOMHCTbI rrOHHMaIOT qaCTb 3aIIJIaHHpOBaHHbIX pacxo,noB, KOTOpbIe He 3aBHCHT OT ,nOXO,nOB (Y). qacTb 3aIIJIaJIHpo­ BaHHbIx pacxo,nOB, KOTopbIe 3aBHCHT OT ,n;OXO,nOB, C (1 - t) Y, H3BeCTHa KaK UHOy14UpOBaHHble paCXOObl.

,LlJuI rrOHHMaHIDI HH,DyUHpOBaHHbIX pacxo,noB rrpe,nCTllBbTe ce6e, qTO eCJIH t - 3TO YPOBeHb rro,noXO,ZJ;Horo HaJIOra, 3HaqHT, (1 - t) Y- CYMMa, KOTOPaJI ,nQIDKHa OCTaTbCH Ha pacJ(o,nbI rrOCJIe yruIaTbI HaJIOroB. 11 H3 3TOH CYMMbI qaCTb C TPaTHTCH Ha rrOTpe6JIeHHe, TaK qTO C (1 - t) Y co­

06UlHT BaM, KaKJIe pacxo,nbI "HH,ZJ;yIUfpoBaHbI" ,nOXO,nOM B pa3Mepe Y.

Ha pHC. 6.6 3llBHCHMOCTb (6.5) H306plUKeHa rpa<t>~ecKHB BH,ZJ;e 1CpUBOU 3aTUlaHupOBaHHbIX

pacxoOoB.

3annaHMpOBaHH~epacxOA~

PE

3annaHMpOBaHHbie paCXQ,II,b1

PE =A+c( 1- t)Y

AOXOA, B~nycK, Y

PKC. 6.6. KPK8SR 3snnSHKp08SHHblX PSCXO~08

,LlJuI TOro 1ff06hI HaRTH KOHKpeTHoe PllBHOBeCHe B KeHHCHaHCKOH Mo,neJIH, 3arrOMHHTe, ~O see B03MO:lKHbIe BapHaHTbI pllBHOBeCHbIX COCTOHHHH BbIplUKeHbI CJIe,nYJOUlHM paBeHCTBOM:

3To ypaBHeHHe MoxeT 6bITb rrpoqHTaHO KaK "3aIIJIaHHpOBaHHbIe pacxo,nbI PllBHbI <t>aKTH­ qeCKHM pacxo,naM. (IloMHHTe, 1ffO B 3KOHOMHKe Y PllBHO KaK o6UleMY ,noxo.ny, TaK H 06UlHM pacxo,naM, rroTOMY ~o Bee pacXO,nbI ecTb qbHMH-TO ,nOXO,naMH.)

~BCHKaJI CH'rya~IDI, Kor,na PE = Y, eCTb paBHOBeCHe. IloqeMY? IloToMY, qTO eCJIH 3KOHOMHKa ,nOCTHfaeT TOqKH, r,ne PE = Y, 3HaqHT, HHKTO He HMeeT HHKaKOH rrpH­

qHHbI H3MeIDITb CBoe rrOBe,neHHe. IloTPe6HTeJIH rrOTPe6AAIOT CTOJIbKO, CKOJIbKO OHH 3aIIJIaHHpOBaJIH (C). focy,naPCTBO rrOKYIIaeT CToJIbKO rrpO.nyKTa, CKOJIbKO XOqeT rrpHo6pecTH (G). 3apy6e:lKHl>Ie rroTpe6HTeJIH rrOKYIIaIOT CTOJIbKO TOBapOB, CKOJIbKO

OHH HaMepeBaJIHCb IIpH06peCTH (NX). H, 'ITO CaMOe BaJKHOe, c!>HpMbI TpanlT Ha HHBeCTHUHH poBHO CTOJIbKO, CKOJIbKO OHH IIJIaHHpOBaJIH - OTCIO,lla CJIe,llYeT, qTO MarepHaJIbHble 3arraCbI He H3MeIDIIOTCg HeO)(OfJl;aHHO.

ECJIH 3arirraHHpoBaHHhle paCXO,!lbI paBHhl c!>aKTH'IeCKHM pacxo~. Bhl .neHCTBHTeJIbHO IIO­

~aere paBHOBeCHe, IIOTOMY qTQ Ka.)({,lU>IH IIOJlY'laeT XeJIaeMoe. H HH Y KOro HeT CTHMYJIa .llJljJ:

H3MeHeHHjJ: CBOero IIOBe,lleHUjI.

Gf)Bhl Moxere orrpe.neJIHTb paBHOBeCHoe 3HaqeHHe lIpO.ayKTa, KOTOPhlR g CJ>6l1paIOCb

!: ., Ha3BaTh Y, IIo.nCTaBHB ypaBHeHHe (6.5) B ypaBHeHHe (6.6). ECJIH BLI c.neJIaere 3TO, y Bac IIOJIyqHTCg CJIe.ZJ;yIOmee:

Onpe,qenfleAf pSSHOSeCJfe rpacPJflfeCKJf

EcJIH paBeHCTBO (6.7) qepecqyp rryraeT Bac, rrpo.nOJIXaHre qHTaTh .naJIbllJe. HaMHoro JIer­ qe OIIpe.neJIHTb paBHOBeCHe B MO,lleJIH KeHHca rpac!>WIecKH. ~ TOro 'IT06hl c.neJIaTh 3TO, Bhl IIOMemaeTe rpac1>HK paBeHCTBa PE = Y Ha TOT xe rpac!>HK, r.ne HaxO.ZJ;HTCg rpac!>HK paBeHCTBa

PE = A + C (1 - t) Y, KaK IIOKa3aHO Ha pHC. 6.7. ToqKa, r.ne ,llBe JIHHHH IIepeCeKaIOTCg, 6y.neT TOqKOH paBHOBeCUjI. B 3TOH TOqKe 3aIIJIaHHpOBaHHLIe paCXO,!lbI TOqHO paBHhl c!>aKTWIeCKHM paCXO,ZJ;aM B 3KOHOMHKe.

3TO paBHOBeCHe Cma6UJ1bHO (ycmou14u8o); IIO.n 3THM IIO.ZJ;pa3YMeBaeTCg, qTO eCJIH 3KOHO­ MHKa HaquHaeTCg Ha JII060M ypOBHe .nOXO,llOB, OTJIWIHOM OT Y• OHa BCKope B03BpamaeTCg

KY. To, qTO 3aCTaBJUleT ee B03BpamaTbCg K Y,- 3T0 H3MeHeHHg 3aIIaCOB MaTepHaJIbHhlX o6oPOTHhlX cpe.nCTB.

3annaHHpOBaHHble paCXO,!lbl

45°

PHC. 6.7. PSSHOS8CH8 S MO/J.8I1H K8HHC8