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Файл:Английский для экономистов. Учебное пособие
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Economists assume that economic events and phenomena do not occur at
random, but are determined by underlying and understandable causes. Unlike the
pure scientist, economists cannot undertake controlled experiments, so they must
test their models in different ways. Statistical analysis of actual economic data can
provide a flow of information from which to build models and test hypotheses. For
example, by gathering data about changes in house prices it is possible to deduce
factors that cause house prices to go up or down, and by how much. Economists
use index numbers to help make comparisons between countries and over time.
Correlation analysis can help determine the strength of particular causal
relationships so that strong and weak relationships can be identified. For example,
it might be possible to demonstrate that, of all the factors that have contributed to
falling house prices, the reduced availability of credit is the single biggest factor.
Professional economists apply their skills of description, analysis, model
building, and prediction to generate knowledge and, from this, provide advice to
private firms, to governments and other organisations.
1.The first function of the economist is to provide information, called
economic intelligence, from which decisions can be made. For firms to survive and
succeed, they need to take many decisions, but each decision carries with it a risk.
The professional economist can help reduce such risks by gathering and analysing
economic intelligence. This economic intelligence is only useful when it can be put
into an economic model, and then applied to the decisions that need to be taken.
2.The second function of the professional economist is to interpret the data
that has been gathered and provide informed advice to firms, organisations, and
governments about the likely costs and benefits of the decisions they make.
In providing advice, the economist will always make an assessment of the
other options that could have been chosen. For example, a large petrol refiner and
retailer may be faced with a significant rise in the costs of crude oil – should it now
raise price? After having made an assessment of all the pricing options, and having
taken account of the likely response of rivals, the firm’s chief economist may
advise it to hold price constant – perhaps the least «common sense» answer.
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As a social science, economics attempts to use the principles and methods of
science to explain economic behaviour. This involves making positive statements
about the economic world.
In contrast, normative statements are based on opinion and value judgment.
Statements suggesting that something «ought to» happen, or that something is
«unfair», are normative because they are matters of opinion.
This statement cannot be tested because it not based on anything testable. If
there is an agreed definition of fairness, and it can be measured, then it might be
possible to test the effect of the change in house prices on the degree of fairness
experienced by a certain identifiable group of people defined as rich. Therefore,
this statement is normative, impossible to verify, and based on opinion rather than
fact.
Economics is a social science, and, unlike the physical sciences, cannot
engage in controlled experimentation to demonstrate how variables are connected.
In the real world, economic variables such as price and income, are
constantly changing, and this creates a problem in demonstrating the relationship
between variables. For example, a fall in price is likely to lead to a rise in
consumer demand if we assume nothing else changes.
Of course, for independent reasons, income could also fall while demand
does not rise. The fall in price could have been counteracted by a fall in income.
The ceteris paribus rule, that all other things remain the same, is used whenever
attempting to demonstrate the link between economic variables.
EXERCISES
1. Sum up the main ides of the text and retell it in Russian.
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2. Fill in the missing words from the box into the text below.
study conceptual issues contribute life costs students claims courses health
complement interest sociology health gain economics international
Economics is the 1)________ of how societies, governments, businesses,
households, and individuals allocate their scarce resources. Our discipline has two
important features. First, we develop 2)________ models of behavior to predict
responses to changes in policy and market conditions. Second, we use rigorous
statistical analysis to investigate these changes.
Economists are well known for advising the president and congress on
economic 3)________, formulating policies at the Federal Reserve Bank, and
analyzing economic conditions for investment banks, brokerage houses, real estate
companies, and other private sector businesses. They also 4)________ to the
development of many other public policies including health care, welfare, and
school reform and efforts to reduce inequality, pollution and crime.
The study of economics can also provide valuable knowledge for making
decisions in everyday 5)________. It offers a tool with which to approach
questions about the desirability of a particular financial investment opportunity,
whether or not to attend college or graduate school, the benefits and 6)________ of
alternative careers, and the likely impacts of public policies including universal
health care and a higher minimum wage.
The complementary study of econometrics, the primary quantitative method
used in the discipline, enables 7)________ to become critical consumers of
statistically based arguments about numerous public and private issues rather than
passive recipients unable to sift through the statistics. Such knowledge enables us
to ask whether the evidence on the desirability of a particular policy, medical
procedure, 8)________ about the likely future path of the economy, or many other
issues is really compelling or whether it simply sounds good but falls apart upon
closer inspection.
Our department structures its courses in order to serve students with diverse
interests. Some students may only want to take one or two 9)________ in order to
learn the basics, while prospective majors might want to explore the field in much
greater depth.
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Those planning to work in the 10)________ care sector may want to learn
11)________ economics, and we have a course that focuses on that field.
Similarly, we have courses on law and economics, economics of education, and
economic history for students in other departments or schools who would like to
explore the economics perspective as a 12)________ to their main field of study.
These courses require only one semester of introductory microeconomics as a
prerequisite and are well-suited for non-majors who seek to supplement their major
with related courses of study or simply have 13)________ in these areas.
Other students might want to minor in economics. Economics offers a good
complement to finance majors and others in the CBA, as well as LAS students
majoring in political science, 14)________, mathematics, and other areas. Premeds
and College of Engineering students also often find the minor both interesting and
valuable.
Of course economics majors can also take the courses described above as
part of their plan of study. Majors 15)________ a much deeper understanding of
economic theory and have the opportunity to apply 16)________ principles to a
number of areas including finance, urban economics, labor economics, and
17)________ trade. We have a mix of mathematically intensive courses for those
who enjoy the challenges of formal modeling and more applied courses that do not
require calculus and focus on public policies and business.
3. Read the following article and make a rendering of it in English.
ЧЕМ ОТЛИЧАЕТСЯ РЕАЛЬНЫЙ ВВП ОТ НОМИНАЛЬНОГО ВВП?
ВВП государства может исчисляться в номинальном и реальном
выражении. В чем специфика обоих подходов к определению данного
экономического показателя? Чем отличается
реальный ВВП от номинального
ВВП?
Под реальным ВВП понимается стоимость произведенных в
государстве товаров и услуг, исчисленная с поправкой на коэффициент-
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дефлятор, а также с учетом ряда иных макроэкономических параметров,
позволяющих определить объем ВВП в актуальных ценах.
Так, например, если ВВП страны в 2010 году составил 1 трлн долларов,
а в 2011-м – 1,5 трлн долларов при том, что цены в государстве выросли на
50 %, то в реальном выражении он будет близким к нулю.
Реальный ВВП
можно сопоставлять с другим близким
макроэкономическим показателем – ВВП, исчисляемым с учетом
покупательной способности экономики страны относительно других
национальных хозяйств. Так, если 2 государства производят одинаковый
объем товаров и услуг с разной стоимостью, то их ВВП правомерно считать
одинаковыми исходя из паритета покупательной способности их экономик.
Можно отметить, что объем ВВП по паритету
покупательной
способности чаще всего определяется не в национальной, а в международных
валютах – обычно в долларах США.
Преимущество исчисления реального ВВП государства заключается в
возможности объективно сравнить текущие объемы его экономики с
показателями прошлых лет и определить, имел ли место экономический рост
фактически.
Например, ВВП России с 2000 года по 2014-й вырос
примерно в 8 раз.
Но с учетом инфляции его реальный рост – примерно двухкратный. В свою
очередь, по паритету покупательной способности ВВП России за указанный
период времени увеличился примерно в 3 раза – данный показатель довольно
близок, таким образом, к реальному ВВП.
Под номинальным ВВП принято понимать стоимость произведенных в
государстве товаров и услуг без
учета каких-либо коэффициентов и поправок
на рост цен. Она может выражаться как в национальной валюте, так и в
какой-либо из зарубежных – по текущему курсу Центрального банка или
валютных бирж.
Номинальный ВВП дает весьма ограниченное представление о
реальной величине экономики, а также о фактическом ее росте. Он будет
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информативным главным образом только в тех случаях, когда в стране
наблюдается низкая или близкая к нулю инфляция.
Текущий номинальный ВВП страны, как правило, значительно
отличается от ВВП, исчисленного с учетом паритета покупательной
способности экономики. Дело в том, что он может не учитывать разницу в
стоимости одних и тех же товаров, выпускаемых
фабриками в разных
странах.
Например, номинальный ВВП России в 2015 году с учетом возросшего
курса доллара составил порядка 1,2 трлн. долларов США. Но при исчислении
с учетом паритета покупательной способности ВВП России в 2015 году
определяется как соответствующий намного большему объему – порядка 3,5
трлн долларов США.
Главное отличие реального ВВП от номинального ВВП в
том, что при
исчислении первого в расчет берутся коэффициент-дефлятор и иные
макроэкономические показатели, позволяющие объективно определить
фактический объем экономики и проанализировать динамику ее реального
роста. Номинальный ВВП исчисляется без поправок на какие-либо
показатели.
Реальный ВВП в большей степени, чем номинальный, коррелирует с
ВВП, исчисленным с учетом паритета покупательной способности
экономики государства.
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UNIT 2. MICROECONOMICS
Part 1
WHAT ABOUT MICROECONOMICS?
In a recent New York Times Magazine article, Paul Krugman laments the
current state of macroeconomics (the study of the determinants of an economy’s
level of output and employment) that blinded us to the forces that, in his view,
caused the current recession. However, he never mentions the state of
microeconomics.
Microeconomics is the study of how firms and consumers make decisions in
markets and how the government tries to address conditions that lead to «bad»
decisions. And it has not suffered any serious intellectual setbacks from the current
Great Recession. Indeed, the causes and cures of this recession are more about
microeconomics than about macroeconomics.
Microeconomists’ theoretical and empirical contributions have taught us that
market failures do exist but that the government rarely, if ever, can be counted on
to correct those failures efficiently. Nothing in the last two years has undermined
microeconomic analyses that influenced the deregulation of the airline, trucking,
railroad, natural gas, crude oil, telecommunications and cable television markets.
These deregulatory successes have not been compromised by the market failures
that originated in the financial sector and are at the heart of the Krugman lament.
But even if Krugman could uncover a theory that integrates irrational exuberance
in financial markets with macroeconomic performance, it would hardly guarantee
improved performance of government regulators. Nor would it enhance our
considerable knowledge of how markets correct after sharp downturns.
The market failure that generated the current crisis is by now well-known:
the rapid growth of subprime mortgages and the failure of many homebuyers and
investors to understand and properly weight credit risks. Unfortunately, banks and
rating agencies underestimated the probability of a major decline in housing prices
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and believed that they could measure the interrelatedness of credit risks. Financial
firms, consumers and regulators did not adequately account for outliers – very low-
probability events–that turned out to be important, leading to a wave of financial
institution failures that caused great pain to the real economy.
Most of the defaults were centered in regulated financial institutions that
purchased, securitized and even invested in the subprime and Alt-A mortgage debt
that triggered the financial collapse. Even some of Bernie Madoff’s operations
were subject to federal regulation. Notably, though posting large losses,
unregulated financial institutions, such as the large hedge funds, have not required
the government’s assistance to survive.
Calls for improved financial market regulation are understandable, because
unregulated mortgage brokers offered many households mortgages that they
subsequently could not afford once home prices stopped rising. But these brokers
did so only because regulated financial institutions willingly bought those
mortgages. Many of the dodgiest mortgage products ended up in off-balance-sheet
entities of regulated financial institutions less than 10 years after Enron collapsed
when its off-balance-sheet entities imploded.
Krugman argues that economists need new models that incorporate irrational
behavior in financial markets. But will such theoretical models keep regulators
from making the same mistakes when the next speculative bubble occurs?
Now that we are well into the Great Recession, little evidence exists that the
proliferation of Treasury and Federal Reserve bailout operations is bringing us out
of it any more rapidly than we might have expected from normal market forces. A
major easing of monetary policy should prove helpful, but will there be any
evidence that the various twists and turns in the Troubled Asset Relief Program
(TARP) or the Term Asset-Backed Securities Lending Facility (TALF) actually
shortened the recession? And plenty of economists question the efficacy of the
stimulus package, given the slow disbursement of funds and the use of these funds
on a variety of dubious projects.
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On the other hand, there is substantial evidence that consumers and firms
generally learn–and learn quickly–from market failures attributable to imperfect
information. Both have moved aggressively to shore up their balance sheets. Risky,
subprime mortgage originations have all but disappeared. Indeed, there is little
historical evidence that the costs of alleged information failures have merited much
attention. The events of the last few years were surely different, but their
possibility was not ruled out by established microeconomic theory.
In retrospect it will be clear that markets responded quite well to the
financial crisis, generating an economic recovery – much as they always do. No
emergency government action addressed the problems in the housing market
created by excessive speculation and by the encouragement of non-creditworthy
buyers to assume large mortgages. As economists would expect, recovery in
housing could occur only when prices fall to sustainable levels, excess inventories
are drawn down through a reduction of new starts, and financial institutions write
down the debt that they issued on over-valued houses. All of those market
corrections are well underway and have little to do with TARP, TALF or
government seizure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac .
Equally important, the credit markets have stabilized and credit spreads have
narrowed substantially, particularly for firms that have managed their balance
sheets well. Microsoft has recently issued bonds that sold at very low spreads over
Treasuries. Even the concern over credit-default swaps issued by large, troubled
financial institutions now appears to have been overstated as large volumes of
those positions have been successfully unwound with little systemic effect.
Throughout this economic crisis, no one has presented credible evidence that
the deregulation of transportation, energy and communications markets has been a
mistake. Whatever the market failures in the early 20th century, government efforts
to correct them failed. Deregulation was and still is the correct policy in those
sectors.
Moreover, it will be quite difficult for policymakers to improve financial
regulation other than by directly regulating leverage more carefully. In the
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meantime, Americans can rest assured that financial markets are quite sensitive to
the interrelatedness of credit default risks and that renewed efforts are being made–
and will continue to be made–to manage financial risks more effectively with a
theory of finance that goes beyond a focus on the «mean and variance» of returns
and pays appropriate attention to risks at the tails of the distribution. The next
financial market failure will result in still another advance in the market’s ability to
manage risk and in the unsettling realization that government can do little to
prevent markets from failing and to improve how they self-correct.
EXERCISES
1. Sum up the main ides of the text and retell it in Russian.
2. Fill in the missing words from the box into the text below.
come launching approach ridiculous longer features business wastes losing
wanting vacuum target specific most removed finding commitment creating
A lot of people 1)________ up with new ideas all the time. Unfortunately,
most of these ideas never make it to market because the underlying problem has
not been clearly thought out and communicated. It may seem obvious that we
would want to understand a potential problem before 2)________ a product to
solve it. Sadly, the reality is quite different.
A better 3)________ is to invest time to clearly describe the problem you
have identified and then imagine a world where it has been solved. Observe your
target market trying to complete tasks and ask yourself 4)________ questions that
smash the limits of their current expectations.
Find Market Problems Worth Solving
This is often the hardest part of our job. We can get so close to our products
that we no 5)________ have the wide view to see market problems that are bigger
than problems that are currently being addressed. Instead, we see the world
through our products and often add new 6)________ to further enhance solutions
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