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prospects of a raising of trade barriers and capital controls by nations seeking to
shield themselves from currency instability would be increased.
At this point, friends of monetary stability, economic integration, free trade,
free flowing capital and political harmony among the Western nations must hope
that dirty floating continues to work better than its detractors think it will.
EXERCISES
1. Sum up the main ides of the text and retell it in Russian.
2. Fill in the missing words from the box into the text below.
give exchange mechanism credits immediate devaluation depreciation
inclusion analysts confidence government sophisticated bigger amount
Mainland China’s central bank has moved to assuage concerns that
depreciation of the Chinese yuan is in the cards in the wake of a milestone decision
by the International Monetary Fund to 1)________ the currency reserve status
recognition.
People’s Bank of China deputy governor Yi Gang told reporters on Tuesday
（that the current controlled float 2)________ regime will continue, while
pledging to transition towards a «clean float», or a free float mechanism in the
future.
«Our long-term goal is a clean float, which entails little intervention. But
under the current managed float 3)________, we have to intervene at times to
stabilise the market», Yi said.
The IMF on Monday approved the yuan, also known as the renminbi, to be
the fifth currency after the US dollar, Euro, British pound and Japanese yen in the
SDR basket, a quasi-currency that functions as an accounting unit of the IMF, as
well as claims and denomination of IMF 4)________ to member countries.
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The verdict is seen as an acknowledgement of China’s heft in the global
economy, and will give top brass in Beijing further incentive to press ahead with
financial and capital account liberalisation.
But it is not seeing triggering any 5)________ demand from foreign
investors, both public and private, to hold yuan-demoninated assets.
The PBOC has been seen as a heavy hand in markets to stabilise the
exchange rate over the past few months, after a fixing mechanism change in
August that resulted in a 3 per cent 6)________ which shattered market confidence
that the currency was a one-way upward bet.
The offshore yuan depreciated as much as 240 basis points or 0.4 per cent to
6.4488 to the dollar as of 7 p.m. Hong Kong time on Tuesday following the IMF
verdict. The onshore yuan settled at 6.3988, having barely moved over the past
week.
The yuan has been toiling under a 7)________ bias given a barrage of
weaker major currencies. It has gained 14 per cent from mid-last year on a real
effective exchange rate basis, a gauge of a currency’s valuation against a group of
peers after netting out inflation, according to Bank of International Settlement data.
After RMB 8)________ in the SDR basket, we think it is likely the PBOC
will gradually step away from FX intervention to allow for a more market-
determined exchange rate, and regain control over its monetary policy as capital
flows become larger on liberalisation», said Nomura 9)________.
They estimate the yuan to trade at 6.75 against the US dollar by the end of
2016, or a 5 per cent depreciation from the current level.
Professor Frank M Song at the University of Hong Kong said the PBOC had
to reinforce market 10)________ at such a critical juncture.
«Re-emphasising a managed float is another way to assure investors at home
and abroad that the currency is not on track for sudden depreciation», he said.
«Theoretically, a clean float means no 11)________ intervention, which is a
very ideal situation. Only until the capital account is fully convertible and the
domestic financial markets are 12)________ enough will a country move towards a
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clean float. In reality, only a few currencies, including the dollar, euro, pound and
yen, are free float», he said.
Despite the constraints and immaturity in China’s financial and foreign
exchange regimes, the IMF gave the yuan greater weighting than that of the pound
and the yen, both accounting for 13)________ shares in global reserves.
The IMF nod also means it considers the yuan to be «freely usable», a
contentious criteria that made the currency miss the cut when it first applied to join
the basket in 2010.
Over the next few years, the yuan is expected to snap up a 5 per cent share in
global reserves, according to UBS China economist Wang Tao.
«This would translate into approximately US$450 billion of capital inflows
into China. Although such 14)________ will not be enough to offset the capital
outflow during the same course», she said.
3. Read the following article and make a rendering of it in English.
КАК КОМПАНИЯ ИЗ РОССИИ РАЗРУШАЕТ МОНОПОЛИЮ
«ТРОЙКИ» РЕЙТИНГОВЫХ АГЕНТСТВ
На фоне конфронтации с Западом российские власти вновь заговорили
о необходимости создания «независимых» рейтинговых агентств. Это не
первая подобная попытка. С лета 2013г. создать независимое рейтинговое
агентство
пытаются китайское рейтинговое агентство Dagong Global Credit,
американское Egan-Jones Ratings и российская компания «Рус-Рейтинг». Как
далеко удалось продвинуться партнерам?
Создание независимого от Запада кредитно-рейтингового агентства –
это уже не «мечта», а «крайняя необходимость», уверен первый вицепремьер Игорь Шувалов. «То, что сейчас происходит с рейтинговыми
агентствами, это практически мировая монополия, а любая монополия – это
плохо», – заявил он в интервью Forbes. Мировой рынок рейтинговых услуг
монополизирован «большой тройкой» международных рейтинговых агентств
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– Fitch, Moody's и S&P, базирующихся в США. На них приходится более 90%
рынка. Авторитет агентств пошатнулся во время глобального финансового
кризиса: в 2000-х гг. Fitch, Moody's и S&P раздавали первоклассные рейтинги
американским ипотечным облигациям, которые на поверку оказались
«мусорными». Но кризис отступил, а «большая тройка» по-прежнему
оказывает существенное влияние на рынки и инвесторов. В марте 2014г
Fitch и S&P ухудшили прогноз по суверенному рейтингу России со
«стабильного» на «негативный», а Moody's поместило рейтинг на пересмотр
с возможным понижением. Кроме того, из-за американских экономических
санкций Moody's и S&P отозвали рейтинги банка «Россия» и ряда других
российских компаний, подконтрольных бизнесменам из санкционного
списка.
Действия «большой тройки» вызывали недовольство и в Европе:
во
время бюджетно-долгового кризиса в еврозоне агентства постоянно снижали
рейтинги европейских стран, а политики в этих странах обвиняли «большую
тройку» в необъективности. В декабре 2013г. Европейское управление по
ценным бумагам и рынкам (ESMA) выпустило доклад, в котором указало на
«недостатки в процедурах суверенных рейтингов, которые представляют
.
риски для качества, независимости
и объективности рейтингов и
рейтингового процесса». А в 2011г. S&P впервые в истории лишило высшего
кредитного рейтинга правительство США. Fitch и Moody’s пока
поддерживают американский рейтинг на максимальной отметке AAA.
Попытки создания «независимого» агентства, о котором 14 апреля заявил
говорит Шувалов, на самом деле уже предпринимались. В июне 2013г.
китайское рейтинговое агентство Dagong Global Credit, американское EganJones Ratings и российская
компания «Рус-Рейтинг» учредили совместный
рейтинговый проект Universal Credit Rating Group (UCRG). Создаваемое
рейтинговое агентство позиционировалось как будущий конкурент «большой
тройки», который принципиально исключит из рейтингового процесса
конфликты интересов и будет подходить к оценке финансового положения и
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кредитоспособности эмитентов с позиций «научной» объективности.
Основатели UCRG практически не известны на глобальной арене. Китайская
Dagong эпизодически привлекала внимание, понижая кредитный рейтинг
США. Egan-Jones находится под запретом Комиссии по ценным бумагам и
биржам США рейтинговать государственные ценные бумаги – на 18 месяцев
с января 2013г. Компания допустила ряд нарушений при регистрации в
качестве «национально признанной
рейтингово-статистической
организации» (NRSRO). «Рус-Рейтинг», основанное аналитиком CFA
Ричардом Хейнсвортом, известно как старейшее российское рейтинговое
агентство, но его доля на отечественном рынке не превышает 3-4%. Штабквартира UCRG расположена в Гонконге, трое учредителей получили равные
доли в предприятии. В октябре 2013г. UCRG привлекла на работу старшего
директора Fitch Стэна Хо. Он заявлял, что в 2014г. агентство
планирует
набрать команду из примерно 10 специалистов. Кроме того, председателем
международного консультативного совета (наблюдательного совета) UCRG
стал бывший премьер-министр Франции Доминик де Вильпен. Генеральным
директором UCRG является Хейнсворт. В конце прошлого года он продал
«Рус-Рейтинг» Александру Зайцеву, выходцу из Sberbank CIB, писала газета
«Коммерсантъ». На сайте UCRG пока нет раздела новостей, зато в
общих
чертах изложена философия компании: в частности, ее рейтинги «будут
свободны от культурных и идеологических предубеждений». UCRG будет
стимулировать реформу глобальной экономики через внедрение «новых,
инновационных рейтинговых протоколов, которые снабдят инвесторов
самыми независимыми, прозрачными и бесконфликтными мнениями на
рынке». Когда агентство планирует начать оказывать рейтинговые услуги, на
сайте не сообщается. Но председатель
совета директоров UCRG Гуан Юань-
Жонг из Dagong в прошлом году признавался, что на построение новой
«глобальной системы рейтинговых услуг» уйдет семь лет (то есть речь идет о
2020г.). Проект UCRG жив, его создатели «брали небольшой таймаут на
развитие», сообщил РБК генеральный директор «Рус-Рейтинг» Александр
225
Зайцев. Он рассчитывает, что к совместному предприятию «Рус-Рейтинга»,
Dagong и Egan-Jones присоединятся другие участники – «локальные
рейтинговые агентства со всего мира». «Мы не хотим, чтобы UCRG
принадлежала и контролировалась группой лиц, представляющих одну
конкретную страну», – пояснил он. Через полтора-два месяца участники
UCRG планируют встретиться в Пекине, чтобы обсудить вопрос о
распределении долей в
проекте. К предприятию могут присоединиться
представители Африки, Латинской Америки и Азии, говорит Зайцев. Слова
Шувалова о том, что необходимо создавать независимое рейтинговое
агентство, гендиректор «Рус-Рейтинга» воспринимает как сигнал о том, что
на рынке, возможно, появится новый игрок, который будет непосредственно
контролироваться российским правительством. Но проект UCRG тоже
подходит на эту
роль, убежден Зайцев. По его мнению, UCRG сможет
создать конкуренцию «большой тройке». «Авторитет глобального
рейтингового агентства сформируется за достаточно короткий промежуток
времени. Это вопрос грамотного построения маркетинговой составляющей»,
– считает он. «Я думаю, что страны примут этого игрока и скажут, что теперь
они ориентируются на UCRG, потому что оно будет оценивать суверенные
рейтинги
и рейтинги эмитентов непредвзято, не опираясь на мнение
правительства отдельно взятой страны», – надеется Зайцев.
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UNIT 8. MONEY
Part 1
THE 6 MOST-TRADED CURRENCIES
AND WHY THEY'RE SO POPULAR
The forex market is the world's largest and most liquid market, with trillions
of dollars traded on any given day between millions of parties. For those just
getting started in the forex market, one of the first steps is to gain familiarity with
some of the more commonly traded currencies and their popular uses in not only
the forex market but in general as well. Let's take a look at several popular
currencies that all forex observers should be acquainted with and some of the
underlying traits and characteristics of each.
1. The U.S. Dollar
First and foremost is the U.S. dollar, which is easily the most traded
currency on the planet. The USD can be found in a pair with all the other major
currencies and often acts as the intermediary in triangular currency transactions.
This is all because the USD acts as the unofficial global reserve currency, held by
nearly every central bank and institutional investment entity in the world.
In addition, due to the U.S. dollar's global acceptance, it is used by some
countries as an official currency, as opposed to a local currency, a practice known
as dollarization. As well, the U.S. dollar may be widely accepted in other nations,
acting as an informal alternative form of payment, while those nations maintain
their official local currency.
The dollar is also an important factor in the foreign exchange rate market for
other currencies, where it may act as a benchmark or target rate for countries that
choose to fix or peg their currencies to the USD's value. For instance, as of 2011,
China has its currency, the renminbi, still pegged to the dollar, much to the
disagreement of many economists and central bankers. Quite often countries will
fix their exchange rates to the USD to stabilize their exchange rate, rather than
allowing the free (forex) markets to fluctuate its relative value.
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One other feature of the USD that is important for novices in forex to
understand is that the dollar is used as the standard currency for most commodities,
such as crude oil and precious metals. So what's important to understand is that
these commodities are subject to not only fluctuations in value due to the basic
economic principals of supply and demand but also the relative value of the U.S.
dollar, with prices highly sensitive to inflation and U.S. interest rates, which
directly affect the dollar's value.
2. The Euro
Although relatively new to the world stage, the euro has quickly become the
second most traded currency behind only the U.S. dollar. As well, the euro is the
world's second largest reserve currency. The official currency of the majority of
the nations within the eurozone, the euro was introduced to the world markets on
January 1, 1999, with banknotes and coinage entering circulation three years later.
Along with being the official currency for most eurozone nations, many
nations within Europe and Africa peg their currencies to the euro, for much the
same reason that currencies are pegged to the USD- to stabilize the exchange rate..
With the euro being a widely used and trusted currency, it is very prevalent
in the forex market, and adds liquidity to any currency pair it trades within. The
euro is commonly traded by speculators as a play on the general health of the
eurozone and its member nations. Political events within the eurozone can often
lead to large trading volumes for the euro, especially in relation to nations that saw
their local interest rates fall dramatically at the time of the euro's inception, notably
Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal. The euro may be the most «politicized» currency
actively traded in the forex market. (For more, see Top 7 Questions About
Currency Trading Answered.)
3. The Japanese Yen
The Japanese yen is easily the most traded currency out of Asia and viewed
by many as a proxy for the underlying strength of Japan's manufacturing-export
economy. As Japan's economy goes, so goes the yen (in some respects). Many use
the yen to gauge the overall health of the Pan-Pacific region as well, taking
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economies such as South Korea, Singapore and Thailand into consideration, as
those currencies are traded far less in the global forex markets.
The yen is also well known in forex circles for its role in the carry trade.
With Japan having basically a zero interest rate policy for much of the the 1990s
and 2000s, traders have borrowed the yen at next to no cost and used it to invest in
other higher yielding currencies around the world, pocketing the rate differentials
in the process. With the carry trade being such a large part of yen's presence on the
international stage, the constant borrowing of the Japanese currency has made
appreciation a difficult task. Though the yen still trades with the same
fundamentals as any other currency, its relationship to international interest rates,
especially with the more heavily traded currencies such as the greenback and the
euro is a large determinant of the yen's value.
4. The Great British Pound
The Great British pound, also known as the pound sterling is the fourth most
traded currency in the forex market,. It also acts as a large reserve currency due to
its relative value compared to other global currencies. Although the U.K. is an
official member of the European Union, it chooses not to adopt the euro as its
official currency for a variety of reasons, namely historic pride in the pound and
maintaining control of domestic interest rates. For this reason, the pound can be
viewed as a pure play on the United Kingdom. Forex traders will often base its
value on the overall strength of the British economy and political stability of its
government. Due to its high value relative to its peers, the pound is also an
important currency benchmark for many nations and acts as a very liquid
component in the forex market.
5. The Swiss Franc
The Swiss franc, much like Switzerland, is viewed by many as a «neutral»
currency. More correctly, the Swiss franc is considered a safe haven within the
forex market, primarily due to the fact that the franc tends to move in a negative
correlation to more volatile commodity currencies such as the Canadian and
Australian dollars, along with U.S. Treasury yields. The Swiss National Bank has
229
actually been known to be quite active in the forex market to ensure that the franc
trades with a relatively-tight range, to reduce volatility and keep interest rates in
line.
6. The Canadian Dollar
Last on our list we take a look at the Canadian dollar, also known as the
loonie. The loonie is probably the world's foremost commodity currency, meaning
that it moves in step with the commodities markets, notably crude oil, precious
metals and minerals. With Canada being such a large exporter of such commodities
the loonie is very volatile to movements in their underlying prices, especially crude
oil. Traders often trade the Canadian dollar to speculate on the movements of these
commodities or as a hedge to their holdings of those underlying contracts.
Additionally, being located in such close proximity to the world's largest
consumer base, the United States, the Canadian economy, and subsequently the
Canadian dollar is highly correlated to the strength of the U.S. economy and
movements in the U.S. dollar as well.
EXERCISES
1. Sum up the main ides of the text and retell it in Russian.
2. Fill in the missing words from the box into the text below.
strange inherent established aristocrat mined crossed history distributed
probable time pound rubles derived
When you really think about it, money is 1)_______. That's probably why
we don't. The last thing the global economy needs is for us to collectively realize
that a slip of paper or a metal coin doesn't have much (if any) 2)_______ value and
that it's all little more than a collective delusion. So rather than wax philosophical
on the basics of world economics, we thought we'd look at something a bit more
certain: where the world's currencies got their names.
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