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Файл:Альтернативная энергетика как фактор модернизации российской экономики. Тенденции и перспективы. Сборник научных трудов
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ɦɥɪɞ. ɤȼɬɱ
45 000
40 000
35 000
30 000
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
ɍɝɨɥɶ ɇɟɮɬɶ ɢ ɧɟɮɬɟɩɪɨɞɭɤɬɵ
Ƚɚɡ Ⱥɬɨɦɧɚɹ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɹ
ɋɨɥɧɟɱɧɚɹ ɢ ɜɟɬɪɨɜɚɹ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɹ ɉɪɨɱɢɟ ɛɟɡɭɝɥɟɪɨɞɧɵɟ ɢɫɬɨɱɧɢɤɢ
Ɋɢɫ. 6. ɉɪɨɝɧɨɡ ɞɢɧɚɦɢɤɢ ɦɢɪɨɜɨɝɨ ɷɥɟɤɬɪɨɩɨɬɪɟɛɥɟɧɢɹ ɩɨ ɜɢ-
ɞɚɦ ɝɟɧɟɪɚɰɢɢ ɩɪɢ ɜɵɩɨɥɧɟɧɢɢ ɫɬɪɚɧɚɦɢ ɰɟɥɟɣ ɩɨ ɪɚɡɜɢɬɢɸ
ȼɂɗ.
ɂɫɬɨɱɧɢɤ: ɨɰɟɧɤɢ ɚɜɬɨɪɨɜ
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
ɍɝɨɥɶ ɇɟɮɬɶ ɢ ɧɟɮɬɟɩɪɨɞɭɤɬɵ
Ƚɚɡ Ⱥɬɨɦɧɚɹ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɹ
ɋɨɥɧɟɱɧɚɹ ɢ ɜɟɬɪɨɜɚɹ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɹ ɉɪɨɱɢɟ ɛɟɡɭɝɥɟɪɨɞɧɵɟ ɢɫɬɨɱɧɢɤɢ
Ɋɢɫ. 7. Ⱦɨɥɢ ɷɧɟɪɝɨɪɟɫɭɪɫɨɜ ɜ ɬɨɩɥɢɜɧɨɣ ɫɬɪɭɤɬɭɪɟ ɝɟɧɟɪɚɰɢɢ
ɷɧɟɪɝɢɢ ɜ ɦɢɪɟ ɩɪɢ ɜɵɩɨɥɧɟɧɢɢ ɫɬɪɚɧɚɦɢ ɰɟɥɟɣ ɩɨ ɪɚɡɜɢɬɢɸ
ȼɂɗ.
ɂɫɬɨɱɧɢɤ: ɨɰɟɧɤɢ ɚɜɬɨɪɨɜ
101
ɦɥɪɞ. ɤȼɬɱ
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
ɋɒȺ ȿɋ Ʉɢɬɚɣ ɂɧɞɢɹ ɉɪɨɱɢɟ ɫɬɪɚɧɵ
Ɋɢɫ. 8. ɉɪɨɝɧɨɡ ɞɢɧɚɦɢɤɢ ɢ ɫɬɪɭɤɬɭɪɵ ɦɢɪɨɜɨɝɨ ɩɪɨɢɡɜɨɞɫɬɜɚ
ɷɥɟɤɬɪɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɢ ɬɟɩɥɨɜɨɣ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɢ ɧɚ ɨɫɧɨɜɟ ɫɨɥɧɟɱɧɨɣ ɢ ɜɟɬɪɨ-
ɜɨɣ ɝɟɧɟɪɚɰɢɢ ɩɪɢ ɜɵɩɨɥɧɟɧɢɢ ɫɬɪɚɧɚɦɢ ɰɟɥɟɣ ɩɨ ɪɚɡɜɢɬɢɸ
ȼɂɗ.
ɂɫɬɨɱɧɢɤ: ɨɰɟɧɤɢ ɚɜɬɨɪɨɜ.
ɉɪɢ ɷɬɨɦ, ɟɫɥɢ ɪɚɫɫɦɚɬɪɢɜɚɬɶ ɧɚɰɢɨɧɚɥɶɧɵɟ ɫɟɤɬɨɪɚ ɩɪɨɢɡɜɨɞɫɬɜɚ ɷɥɟɤɬɪɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɢ ɬɟɩɥɨɜɨɣ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɢ, ɬɨ ɫɨɥɧɟɱɧɚɹ ɢ ɜɟɬɪɨɜɚɹ
ɷɧɟɪɝɢɹ ɛɭɞɭɬ ɢɦɟɬɶ ɧɚɢɛɨɥɶɲɭɸ ɞɨɥɸ ɢɦɟɧɧɨ ɜ ȿɋ – 26% ɜ 2030 ɝ.,
ɬɨɝɞɚ ɤɚɤ ɜ Ʉɢɬɚɟ ɨɧɚ ɫɨɫɬɚɜɢɬ ɬɨɥɶɤɨ 12%, ɜ ɋɒȺ – ɩɨɪɹɞɤɚ 17%, ɚ
ɜ ɂɧɞɢɢ – 15% (ɫɦ. ɪɢɫ. 9).
Ɉɰɟɧɤɢ ɩɟɪɫɩɟɤɬɢɜ ɜɧɟɞɪɟɧɢɹ ɇȼɂɗ ɜ ɦɢɪɨɜɨɦ
ɩɪɨɦɵɲɥɟɧɧɨɦ ɫɟɤɬɨɪɟ ɞɨ 2030
ɝ.
ȼ ɞɨɩɨɥɧɟɧɢɟ ɤ ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɧɨɦɭ ɜɵɲɟ ɫɰɟɧɚɪɧɨɦɭ ɦɚɤɪɨɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɭ ɪɚɫɫɦɨɬɪɢɦ ɧɟɤɨɬɨɪɵɟ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɧɵɟ ɨɰɟɧɤɢ ɩɟɪɫɩɟɤɬɢɜ ɜɧɟɞɪɟɧɢɹ ɇȼɂɗ ɧɚ ɦɢɤɪɨɭɪɨɜɧɟ – ɜɟɞɭɳɢɦɢ ɦɢɪɨɜɵɦɢ ɩɪɨɦɵɲɥɟɧɧɵɦɢ
ɤɨɦɩɚɧɢɹɦɢ.
Ʉɚɤ ɢ ɧɚ ɭɪɨɜɧɟ ɨɬɞɟɥɶɧɵɯ ɝɨɫɭɞɚɪɫɬɜ, ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫ ɜɧɟɞɪɟɧɢɹ
ɇȼɂɗ ɤɪɭɩɧɟɣɲɢɦɢ ɦɢɪɨɜɚɹ ɤɨɦɩɚɧɢɹɦɢ ɨɬɥɢɱɚɟɬɫɹ ɪɚɡɧɨɨɛɪɚɡɢɟɦ
ɩɨɞɯɨɞɨɜ, ɫɬɪɚɬɟɝɢɣ ɢ ɰɟɥɟɜɵɯ ɩɪɢɨɪɢɬɟɬɨɜ. Ⱥɤɬɢɜɧɨɫɬɶ ɤɨɧɤɪɟɬɧɨɣ
ɤɨɦɩɚɧɢɢ ɩɨ ɜɧɟɞɪɟɧɢɸ ɇȼɂɗ ɜ ɛɨɥɶɲɨɣ ɫɬɟɩɟɧɢ
ɡɚɜɢɫɢɬ ɨɬ ɨɬɪɚɫɥɟɜɨɣ ɩɪɢɧɚɞɥɟɠɧɨɫɬɢ, ɪɟɝɢɨɧɨɜ ɜɟɞɟɧɢɹ ɛɢɡɧɟɫɚ, ɨɫɨɛɟɧɧɨɫɬɟɣ
ɫɬɪɚɬɟɝɢɢ ɭɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɢɹ, ɬ.ɟ. ɬɨɝɨ, ɧɚɫɤɨɥɶɤɨ ɦɢɫɫɢɹ, ɨɪɝɚɧɢɡɚɰɢɨɧɧɚɹ
ɤɭɥɶɬɭɪɚ, ɩɨɡɢɰɢɹ ɜɵɫɲɟɝɨ ɪɭɤɨɜɨɞɫɬɜɚ ɝɚɪɦɨɧɢɪɭɸɬ ɥɢɛɨ, ɧɚɨɛɨɪɨɬ, ɩɪɨɬɢɜɨɪɟɱɚɬ ɩɪɢɧɰɢɩɚɦ ɭɫɬɨɣɱɢɜɨɝɨ ɪɚɡɜɢɬɢɹ. ȼɦɟɫɬɟ ɫ ɬɟɦ,
102
ȿɋ
ɂɧɞɢɹ
5 000
ɦɥɪɞ. ɤȼɬɱ
ɋɒȺ
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0
ɍɝɨɥɶ ɇɟɮɬɶ ɢ ɧɟɮɬɟɩɪɨɞɭɤɬɵ
Ƚɚɡ Ⱥɬɨɦɧɚɹ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɹ
ɋɨɥɧɟɱɧɚɹ ɢ ɜɟɬɪɨɜɚɹ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɹ ɉɪɨɱɢɟ ɛɟɡɭɝɥɟɪɨɞɧɵɟ ɢɫɬɨɱɧɢɤɢ
3 000
ɦɥɪɞ. ɤȼɬɱ
Ʉɢɬɚɣ
2 000
1 000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0
ɍɝɨɥɶ ɇɟɮɬɶ ɢ ɧɟɮɬɟɩɪɨɞɭɤɬɵ
Ƚɚɡ Ⱥɬɨɦɧɚɹ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɹ
ɋɨɥɧɟɱɧɚɹ ɢ ɜɟɬɪɨɜɚɹ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɹ ɉɪɨɱɢɟ ɛɟɡɭɝɥɟɪɨɞɧɵɟ ɢɫɬɨɱɧɢɤɢ
ɦɥɪɞ. ɤȼɬɱ
7 000
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0
ɍɝɨɥɶ ɇɟɮɬɶ ɢ ɧɟɮɬɟɩɪɨɞɭɤɬɵ
Ƚɚɡ Ⱥɬɨɦɧɚɹ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɹ
ɋɨɥɧɟɱɧɚɹ ɢ ɜɟɬɪɨɜɚɹ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɹ ɉɪɨɱɢɟ ɛɟɡɭɝɥɟɪɨɞɧɵɟ ɢɫɬɨɱɧɢɤɢ
ɦɥɪɞ. ɤȼɬɱ
14 000
10 000
12 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0
ɍɝɨɥɶ ɇɟɮɬɶ ɢ ɧɟɮɬɟɩɪɨɞɭɤɬɵ
Ƚɚɡ Ⱥɬɨɦɧɚɹ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɹ
ɋɨɥɧɟɱɧɚɹ ɢ ɜɟɬɪɨɜɚɹ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɹ ɉɪɨɱɢɟ ɛɟɡɭɝɥɟɪɨɞɧɵɟ ɢɫɬɨɱɧɢɤɢ
ɜ ɤɪɭɩɧɟɣɲɢɯ ɫɬɪɚɧɚɯ (ɢɯ ɨɛɴɟɞɢɧɟɧɢɹɯ) ɩɪɢ ɜɵɩɨɥɧɟɧɢɢ ɢɦɢ ɰɟɥɟɣ ɩɨ ɪɚɡɜɢɬɢɸ ȼɂɗ.
ɂɫɬɨɱɧɢɤ: ɨɰɟɧɤɢ ɚɜɬɨɪɨɜ
Ɋɢɫ. 9. ɉɪɨɝɧɨɡ ɞɢɧɚɦɢɤɢ ɢ ɬɨɩɥɢɜɧɨɣ ɫɬɪɭɤɬɭɪɵ ɩɪɨɢɡɜɨɞɫɬɜɚ ɷɥɟɤɬɪɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɢ ɬɟɩɥɨɜɨɣ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɢ
103
ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɟɦɵɟ ɞɨɥɝɨɫɪɨɱɧɵɟ ɬɟɧɞɟɧɰɢɢ ɜ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɢ ɬɟɯɧɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɪɚɡɜɢɬɢɹ, ɦɟɠɞɭɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɝɨ ɢ ɧɚɰɢɨɧɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɝɨɫɭɞɚɪɫɬɜɟɧɧɨɝɨ
ɪɟɝɭɥɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ, ɬɪɟɛɨɜɚɧɢɣ ɩɨɬɪɟɛɢɬɟɥɟɣ, ɢɧɜɟɫɬɨɪɨɜ ɢ ɨɛɳɟɫɬɜɚ
(ɩɨɞɪɨɛɧɟɟ ɫɦ. ɝɥɚɜɵ 2, 4 ɧɚɫɬ. ɢɡɞ.) ɩɨɡɜɨɥɹɸɬ ɫɞɟɥɚɬɶ ɜɵɜɨɞ ɨ ɞɚɥɶɧɟɣɲɟɦ ɩɨɜɵɲɟɧɢɢ ɡɧɚɱɢɦɨɫɬɢ ɇȼɂɗ ɞɥɹ ɦɢɪɨɜɨɣ ɩɪɨɦɵɲɥɟɧɧɨɫɬɢ (ɬɚɛɥ.).
Ɍɚɛɥɢɰɚ
Ʉɚɱɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɚɹ ɨɰɟɧɤɚ ɞɨɥɝɨɫɪɨɱɧɵɯ ɬɪɟɧɞɨɜ, ɜɥɢɹɸɳɢɯ
ɧɚ ɬɟɦɩɵ ɜɧɟɞɪɟɧɢɹ ɇȼɂɗ ɦɢɪɨɜɵɦɢ ɩɪɨɦɵɲɥɟɧɧɵɦɢ
ɤɨɦɩɚɧɢɹɦɢ
ɉɚɪɚɦɟɬɪ ɇɚɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɢɟ ɢ ɜɵɪɚɠɟɧɧɨɫɬɶ
ɋɟɛɟɫɬɨɢɦɨɫɬɶ ɋɭɳɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɨ ɭɩɚɞɚɟɬ, ɜ ɪɹɞɟ ɝɨɫɭɞɚɪɫɬɜ
ɩɪɢɛɥɢɡɢɬɫɹ ɢɥɢ ɫɬɚɧɟɬ ɫɨɩɨɫɬɚɜɢɦɨɣ ɫ
ɭɝɥɟɦ ɢ ɞɪ. ɜɢɞɚɦɢ ɢɫɤɨɩɚɟɦɨɝɨ ɬɨɩɥɢɜɚ.
ɄɉȾ ɫɨɥɧɟɱɧɵɯ ɩɚɧɟɥɟɣ, ɜɟɬɪɨɝɟɧɟɪɚɬɨɪɨɜ, ɞɪɭɝɢɯ ɇȼɂɗ
Ɇɟɠɞɭɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɟ ɢ ɧɚɰɢɨɧɚɥɶɧɨɟ
ɷɤɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɨɟ ɢ ɤɥɢɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɟ
ɪɟɝɭɥɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɟ
Ɍɪɟɛɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɩɨɬɪɟɛɢɬɟɥɟɣ, ɢɧɜɟɫɬɨɪɨɜ ɢ ɞɪɭɝɢɯ ɡɚɢɧɬɟɪɟɫɨɜɚɧɧɵɯ ɫɬɨɪɨɧ
ɂɫɬɨɱɧɢɤ: ɨɰɟɧɤɢ ɚɜɬɨɪɨɜ
ɋɭɳɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɨ ɩɨɜɵɫɢɬɫɹ
ɋɭɳɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɨ ɭɠɟɫɬɨɱɢɬɫɹ. Ɉɬɱɟɬɧɨɫɬɶ ɨ
ɜɵɛɪɨɫɚɯ ɩɚɪɧɢɤɨɜɵɯ ɝɚɡɨɜ ɦɨɠɟɬ ɫɬɚɬɶ
ɨɛɹɡɚɬɟɥɶɧɵɦ ɷɥɟɦɟɧɬɨɦ ɦɟɠɞɭɧɚɪɨɞ-
ɧɨɣ ɨɬɱɟɬɧɨɫɬɢ ɩɪɨɦɵɲɥɟɧɧɵɯ ɤɨɦɩɚ-
ɧɢɣ.
Ȼɭɞɭɬ ɩɨɫɬɟɩɟɧɧɨ ɩɨɜɵɲɚɬɶɫɹ
ɬɪɟɧɞɚ ɤ 2030 ɝ.
ɉɨɞɬɜɟɪɠɞɟɧɢɟɦ ɷɬɨɝɨ ɬɟɡɢɫɚ ɫɥɭɠɢɬ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡ ɩɟɪɫɩɟɤɬɢɜ
ɇȼɂɗ ɜ ɩɪɨɦɵɲɥɟɧɧɨɦ ɫɟɤɬɨɪɟ, ɩɨɞɝɨɬɨɜɥɟɧɧɵɣ ɚɜɬɨɪɢɬɟɬɧɵɦ
Ɇɟɠɞɭɧɚɪɨɞɧɵɦ ɚɝɟɧɬɫɬɜɨɦ ɩɨ ɜɨɡɨɛɧɨɜɥɹɟɦɨɣ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɢ (IRENA)
[19-21]. ȼ ɫɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɢɢ ɫ ɞɚɧɧɵɦ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɨɦ, ɫɨɜɨɤɭɩɧɵɣ ɨɛɴɟɦ ɩɨɬɪɟɛɥɟɧɢɹ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɢ ɩɪɨɦɵɲɥɟɧɧɵɦ ɫɟɤɬɨɪɨɦ ɜɨɡɪɚɫɬɟɬ ɧɚ 20% ɨɬ ɬɟɤɭɳɢɯ ɭɪɨɜɧɟɣ. ɉɪɢ ɷɬɨɦ ɨɠɢɞɚɟɬɫɹ ɫɨɤɪɚɳɟɧɢɟ ɩɨɬɪɟɛɥɟɧɢɹ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɢ ɜ ɫɬɪɚɧɚɯ ɈɗɋɊ ɧɚ 15% [20, p. 3]. ɉɨ ɨɰɟɧɤɟ IRENA, ɨɤɨɥɨ 50%
ɫɨɜɨɤɭɩɧɨɝɨ
ɩɪɨɦɵɲɥɟɧɧɨɝɨ ɩɨɬɪɟɛɥɟɧɢɹ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɢ ɛɭɞɟɬ ɩɪɢɯɨɞɢɬɶɫɹ ɧɚ ɦɨɳɧɨɫɬɢ, ɩɨɤɚ ɧɟ ɜɜɟɞɟɧɧɵɟ ɜ ɷɤɫɩɥɭɚɬɚɰɢɸ. Ɍɟɦ ɫɚɦɵɦ ɫɨɡɞɚɟɬ ɜɵɫɨɤɢɣ ɩɨɬɟɧɰɢɚɥ ɪɨɫɬɚ ɞɨɥɢ ȼɂɗ, ɧɨ, ɜ ɬɨ ɠɟ ɜɪɟɦɹ ɷɬɨ ɨɡɧɚɱɚɟɬ, ɱɬɨ ɤ 2030 ɝ. ɩɪɢɦɟɪɧɨ ɨɤɨɥɨ 50% ɷɧɟɪɝɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɦɨɳɧɨɫɬɟɣ,
ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɭɟɦɨɣ ɩɪɨɦɵɲɥɟɧɧɨɫɬɶɸ, ɩɨ-ɩɪɟɠɧɟɦɭ ɛɭɞɟɬ ɛɚɡɢɪɨɜɚɬɶɫɹ
ɧɚ ɢɫɬɨɱɧɢɤɚɯ ɢɫɤɨɩɚɟɦɨɝɨ ɬɨɩɥɢɜɚ.
IRENA ɜ ɪɚɦɤɚɯ ɧɚɛɨɪɚ
ɢɡ ɬɪɟɯ ɫɰɟɧɚɪɢɟɜ ɨɰɟɧɢɜɚɟɬ ɞɢɚɩɚɡɨɧ
ɞɨɥɢ ȼɂɗ ɜ ɷɧɟɪɝɨɩɨɬɪɟɛɥɟɧɢɢ ɩɪɨɦɵɲɥɟɧɧɨɝɨ ɫɟɤɬɨɪɚ ɜ 2030 ɝ.
ɦɟɠɞɭ 15 ɢ 35%. ɉɪɢ ɢɧɟɪɰɢɨɧɧɨɦ ɫɰɟɧɚɪɢɢ ɞɨɥɹ ȼɂɗ ɜɨɡɪɚɫɬɟɬ
104
ɥɢɲɶ ɧɚ 5% (ɫ 10 ɞɨ 15%). ȼ ɩɪɨɦɟɠɭɬɨɱɧɨɦ ɫɰɟɧɚɪɢɢ, ɨɬɪɚɠɚɸɳɟɦ
ɬɟɤɭɳɢɣ ɩɨɬɟɧɰɢɚɥ ɷɮɮɟɤɬɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ ȼɂɗ, ɢɯ ɞɨɥɹ ɜɨɡɪɚɫɬɚɟɬ ɞɨ 26%.
ɇɚɤɨɧɟɰ, ɜ ɪɚɦɤɚɯ ɧɚɢɛɨɥɟɟ ɨɩɬɢɦɢɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɫɰɟɧɚɪɢɹ ɩɪɟɞɭɫɦɚɬɪɢɜɚɟɬɫɹ, ɱɬɨ ɛɭɞɟɬ ɞɨɫɬɢɝɧɭɬ ɬɚɤɨɣ ɩɪɨɝɪɟɫɫ ɜ ɬɟɯɧɨɥɨɝɢɹɯ ȼɂɗ, ɤɨɬɨɪɵɣ ɨɛɟɫɩɟɱɢɬ ɧɟɞɨɩɭɳɟɧɢɟ ɪɨɫɬɚ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ ɩɪɢ-
o
ɡɟɦɧɨɝɨ ɜɨɡɞɭɯɚ ɤ ɤɨɧɰɭ XXI ɜɟɤɚ ɜɵɲɟ 2
C. ɋɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɟɧɧɨ, ɞɨɥɹ
ȼɂɗ ɜɨɡɪɚɫɬɟɬ ɞɨ 35% [21, p. 52-57, 72-74].
ȼ ɰɟɥɨɦ, ɧɚ ɧɚɲ ɜɡɝɥɹɞ, ɭɤɚɡɚɧɧɵɣ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡ IRENA ɩɨ ɩɟɪɜɵɦ
ɞɜɭɦ ɫɰɟɧɚɪɢɹɦ ɞɨɫɬɚɬɨɱɧɨ ɪɟɚɥɢɫɬɢɱɟɧ ɩɪɢ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɢ ɫɨɯɪɚɧɟɧɢɹ ɬɟɤɭɳɢɯ ɬɪɟɧɞɨɜ ɢ ɬɟɦɩɨɜ ɬɟɯɧɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɩɪɨɝɪɟɫɫɚ ɜ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɢ ȼɂɗ.
ȼɦɟɫɬɟ ɫ ɬɟɦ, ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ, ɱɬɨ ɪɟɚɥɢɡɚɰɢɹ ɬɪɟɬɶɟɝɨ (ɨɩɬɢɦɢɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ) ɫɰɟɧɚɪɢɹ ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɫɪɚɜɧɢɬɟɥɶɧɨ ɦɚɥɨɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɵɦ.
Ɉɬɦɟɬɢɦ, ɱɬɨ ɮɚɤɬɢɱɟɫɤɚɹ ɞɢɧɚɦɢɤɚ ɜɧɟɞɪɟɧɢɹ ɇȼɂɗ
ɦɢɪɨɜɵɦɢ ɩɪɨɦɵɲɥɟɧɧɵɦɢ ɤɨɦɩɚɧɢɹɦɢ ɜɨ ɦɧɨɝɨɦ ɛɭɞɟɬ ɡɚɜɢɫɟɬɶ ɨɬ ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɚ ɢ ɬɟɦɩɨɜ ɢɯ ɜɧɭɬɪɢɨɪɝɚɧɢɡɚɰɢɨɧɧɨɣ ɬɪɚɧɫɮɨɪɦɚɰɢɢ – ɧɟ ɬɨɥɶɤɨ
ɬɟɯɧɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ, ɧɨ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɭɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɢ ɢɧɫɬɢɬɭɰɢɨɧɚɥɶɧɨɣ.
Ʉɚɤ ɨɬɦɟɱɚɥɨɫɶ ɧɚɦɢ ɪɚɧɟɟ [22]. ɉɨɷɬɨɦɭ, ɧɚ ɧɚɲ ɜɡɝɥɹɞ, ɧɚɢɛɨɥɶɲɟɝɨ ɞɨɥɝɨɫɪɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɫɬɪɚɬɟɝɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɷɮɮɟɤɬɚ ɨɬ ɢɯ ɜɧɟɞɪɟɧɢɹ ɦɨɠɧɨ
ɞɨɫɬɢɱɶ ɥɢɲɶ ɜ ɬɨɦ ɫɥɭɱɚɟ, ɟɫɥɢ ɤɨɦɩɚɧɢɹ ɩɪɢ ɷɬɨɦ ɫɚɦɚ
ɛɭɞɟɬ ɩɨɫɬɟɩɟɧɧɨ ɬɪɚɧɫɮɨɪɦɢɪɨɜɚɬɶɫɹ ɜ ɧɚɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɢɢ ɝɚɪɦɨɧɢɡɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɨɣ ɫ
ɩɪɢɪɨɞɧɨɣ ɫɪɟɞɨɣ ɫɨɰɢɚɥɶɧɨ ɨɪɢɟɧɬɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɨɣ ɫɬɪɭɤɬɭɪɵ. Ɇɨɠɧɨ
ɨɠɢɞɚɬɶ, ɱɬɨ ɤ 2030 ɝ. ɩɪɨɝɪɟɫɫ ɇȼɂɗ ɢ ɞɪɭɝɢɯ ɬɟɯɧɨɥɨɝɢɣ ɚɥɶɬɟɪɧɚɬɢɜɧɨɣ ɷɧɟɪɝɟɬɢɤɢ ɩɨɡɜɨɥɢɬ ɜɟɞɭɳɢɦ ɦɢɪɨɜɵɦ ɩɪɨɦɵɲɥɟɧɧɵɦ ɤɨɦɩɚɧɢɹɦ ɭɫɤɨɪɢɬɶ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫ ɬɚɤɨɣ ɬɪɚɧɫɮɨɪɦɚɰɢɢ.
***
Ɍɚɤɢɦ ɨɛɪɚɡɨɦ, ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɧɵɣ ɜ ɞɚɧɧɨɣ ɝɥɚɜɟ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡ ɫɜɢɞɟ-
ɬɟɥɶɫɬɜɭɟɬ, ɱɬɨ ɤ 2030 ɝ. ɇȼɂɗ ɢɡ
ɷɤɡɨɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ (ɧɨɜɨɝɨ, ɚɥɶɬɟɪɧɚɬɢɜɧɨɝɨ) ɜɢɞɚ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɢ ɡɚɣɦɭɬ ɦɟɫɬɨ ɨɞɧɨɝɨ ɢɡ ɜɚɠɧɵɯ ɤɨɦɩɨɧɟɧɬɨɜ
ɷɧɟɪɝɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɛɚɥɚɧɫɚ, ɤɚɤ ɧɚ ɨɛɳɟɦɢɪɨɜɨɦ ɭɪɨɜɧɟ ɢ ɭɪɨɜɧɟ ɩɟɪɟɞɨɜɵɯ ɷɤɨɧɨɦɢɤ, ɬɚɤ ɢ ɜɨ ɦɧɨɝɢɯ ɤɪɭɩɧɟɣɲɢɯ ɦɢɪɨɜɵɯ ɩɪɨɦɵɲɥɟɧɧɵɯ ɤɨɦɩɚɧɢɹɯ.
ɋɩɢɫɨɤ ɥɢɬɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ
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2. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (2013). International
Energy Outlook 2013.
3. ɉɪɨɝɧɨɡ ɪɚɡɜɢɬɢɹ ɷɧɟɪɝɟɬɢɤɢ ɦɢɪɚ ɢ Ɋɨɫɫɢɢ ɞɨ 2040 ɝɨɞɚ / ɂɇɗɂ
ɊȺɇ ɢ
Ⱥɧɚɥɢɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɣ ɰɟɧɬɪ ɩɪɢ ɉɪɚɜɢɬɟɥɶɫɬɜɟ ɊɎ. URL:
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105
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5. BP (2014). BP Energy Outlook 2035.
6. Statoil (2014). Energy Perspectives: long-term macro and market out-
look.
7. Shell (2013). ɇɨɜɵɣ ɜɡɝɥɹɞ ɧɚ ɛɭɞɭɳɟɟ.
8. BP (2016). BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2016.
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https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/renewable-energy/renewableenergy-directive
10. EU 2030 Energy Strategy. URL: https://ec.europa.eu/energy/node/163
11. Ash K. President Obama announces new renewable energy targets, but
we can and must do more. 9 July 2015. URL:
http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/news/Blogs/makingwaves/
President-Obama-renewable-energy-climate-legacy/blog/53473/
12. IRENA (2014). Remap 2030. Renewable Energy Prospects: China.
URL:http://irena.org/remap/IRENA_REmap_China_report_2014.pdf
13. RE100 (2015). China’s Fast Track to a Renewable Future. URL:
https://www.theclimategroup.org/sites/default/files/archive/files/RE100
-China-analysis.pdf
14. Tianjie M. China's 5 Year Plan for Energy. TheDiplomat.com 06 Au-
gust 2016. URL: http://thediplomat.com/2016/08/chinas-5-year-planfor-energy/
15. Tentative State-wise break-up of Renewable Power target to be
achieved by the year 2022. URL: http://mnre.gov.in/filemanager/UserFiles/Tentative-State-wise-break-up-of-RenewablePower-by-2022.pdf
16. Sethy N. India's energy mix to have 40% renewable sources by 2030.
22 September 2015. URL: http://www.businessstandard.com/article/economy-policy/india-s-energy-mix-to-have-40renewable-sources-by-2030-115092200057_1.html
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Bloomberg New Energy Finance. 20 July 2015. URL:
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bles-targets-vs-NEO_2015-07-20_v3.pdf
18. ɋɟɦɢɤɚɲɟɜ
ɧɚɪɢɟɜ ɦɢɪɨɜɵɯ ɩɪɨɢɡɜɨɞɫɬɜɚ, ɩɨɬɪɟɛɥɟɧɢɹ ɢ
ȼ.ȼ., Ʉɨɥɩɚɤɨɜ Ⱥ.ɘ. ɉɨɫɬɪɨɟɧɢɟ ɫɨɝɥɚɫɨɜɚɧɧɵɯ ɫɰɟ-
ɰɟɧɵ ɧɟɮɬɢ. Ɇɚɬɟɪɢɚɥɵ ɫɬɨ ɲɟɫɬɶɞɟɫɹɬ ɫɟɞɶɦɨɝɨ ɡɚɫɟɞɚɧɢɹ ɩɨɫɬɨɹɧɧɨ ɞɟɣɫɬɜɭɸɳɟɝɨ ɨɬɤɪɵɬɨɝɨ ɫɟɦɢɧɚɪɚ «ɗɤɨɧɨɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦɵ ɨɬɪɚɫɥɟɣ ɬɨɩ-
106
ɥɢɜɧɨ-ɷɧɟɪɝɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɤɨɦɩɥɟɤɫɚ (ɫɟɦɢɧɚɪ Ⱥ.ɋ. ɇɟɤɪɚɫɨɜɚ)» ɨɬ
29 ɦɚɪɬɚ 2016 ɝ. – Ɇ.: ɂɇɉ ɊȺɇ, 2016.
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22. Ɍɟɪɟɧɬɶɟɜ ɇ.ȿ. «Ɂɟɥɟɧɚɹ» ɦɢɤɪɨɷɤɨɧɨɦɢɤɚ: ɨɰɟɧɤɚ ɢ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡ ɢɧ-
ɫɬɢɬɭɰɢɨɧɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɬɪɚɧɫɮɨɪɦɚɰɢɣ ɛɢɡɧɟɫɚ. – Ɇ., 2014. – 18 ɫ.
107
ɘ.ȼ. ɋɢɧɹɤ
ȽɅȺȼȺ 6.
ɋɐȿɇȺɊɂɂ ɊȺɁȼɂɌɂə ȺɅɖɌȿɊɇȺɌɂȼɇɕɏ
ɌȿɏɇɈɅɈȽɂɃ ȼ ɗɇȿɊȽȿɌɂɄȿ ɊɈɋɋɂɂ
Ɉɡɚɛɨɱɟɧɧɨɫɬɶ ɦɧɨɝɢɯ ɫɬɪɚɧ ɭɝɪɨɡɚɦɢ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ ɤɥɢɦɚɬɚ ɡɚɫɬɚɜɥɹɸɬ ɨɛɪɚɳɚɬɶ ɜɫɟ ɛɨɥɶɲɟ ɜɧɢɦɚɧɢɟ ɧɚ ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦɵ ɪɚɡɜɢɬɢɹ ɷɧɟɪɝɟɬɢɤɢ, ɤɚɤ ɨɫɧɨɜɧɨɝɨ ɢɫɬɨɱɧɢɤɚ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɨɝɟɧɧɵɯ ɜɵɛɪɨɫɨɜ ɜ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɭ. ȼ ɷɬɨɣ ɫɜɹɡɢ ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦɵ ɩɟɪɟɫɬɪɨɣɤɢ ɫɢɫɬɟɦ ɷɧɟɪɝɨɫɧɚɛɠɟɧɢɹ
ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɰɟɧɬɪɚɥɶɧɵɦɢ ɩɪɢ ɪɚɡɪɚɛɨɬɤɚɯ ɫɬɪɚɬɟɝɢɣ ɚɞɚɩɬɚɰɢɢ ɷɤɨɧɨɦɢɤɢ ɤ ɭɝɪɨɡɚɦ ɤɥɢɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɣ. ɋɟɣɱɚɫ ɜɫɟ ɛɨɥɟɟ ɨɬɱɟɬɥɢɜɨ ɩɪɨɹɫɧɹɟɬɫɹ
ɨɫɧɨɜɧɨɣ ɬɪɟɧɞ ɜ ɪɚɡɜɢɬɢɢ ɦɢɪɨɜɨɣ ɷɧɟɪɝɟɬɢɤɢ,
ɜɵɬɟɤɚɸɳɢɣ ɢɡ ɰɟɥɟɣ ɢ ɡɚɞɚɱ ɬɚɤɨɣ ɫɬɪɚɬɟɝɢɢ: ɷɧɟɪɝɢɹ ɞɨɥɠɧɚ ɛɵɬɶ
ɱɢɫɬɨɣ, ɞɟɲɟɜɨɣ ɢ ɞɨɫɬɭɩɧɨɣ. Ɍɚɤɨɣ ɩɨɞɯɨɞ ɩɪɟɞɩɨɥɚɝɚɟɬ ɰɟɥɟɧɚɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɧɵɟ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ ɜ ɪɟɫɭɪɫɧɨɣ ɨɛɟɫɩɟɱɟɧɧɨɫɬɢ ɬɪɚɞɢɰɢɨɧɧɵɯ
ɬɨɩɥɢɜ, ɬɟɯɧɢɱɟɫɤɢɣ ɩɪɨɝɪɟɫɫ ɜɨ ɜɫɟɯ ɫɮɟɪɚɯ ɷɧɟɪɝɨɯɨɡɹɣɫɬɜɚ, ɫɨɜɟɪɲɟɧɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɟ ɦɟɬɨɞɨɜ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ɢ ɭɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɚɦɢ ɝɟɧɟɪɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɜɫɟɯ ɮɨɪɦ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɢ ɢ ɢɯ
ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɢɹ. ɇɟɫɨɦɧɟɧɧɨ, ɱɬɨ ɷɬɨ
ɩɨɬɪɟɛɭɟɬ ɫɟɪɶɟɡɧɵɯ ɢ ɝɥɭɛɨɤɢɯ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɣ ɜ ɫɬɪɭɤɬɭɪɟ ɩɪɨɢɡɜɨɞɫɬɜɚ
ɢ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɬɨɩɥɢɜɧɨ-ɷɧɟɪɝɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɪɟɫɭɪɫɨɜ. ɉɪɢ ɷɬɨɦ, ɱɟɦ
ɪɚɧɶɲɟ ɛɭɞɟɬ ɨɫɨɡɧɚɧɚ ɧɟɨɛɯɨɞɢɦɨɫɬɶ ɷɬɢɯ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɣ, ɬɟɦ ɫ ɦɟɧɶɲɢɦɢ ɩɨɬɟɪɹɦɢ ɢ ɡɚɬɪɚɬɚɦɢ ɷɬɢ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ ɛɭɞɭɬ ɩɪɨɢɫɯɨɞɢɬɶ ɜ ɛɭɞɭɳɟɦ.
ȼ Ʉɨɩɟɧɝɚɝɟɧɟ ɧɚ ɤɨɧɮɟɪɟɧɰɢɢ ɈɈɇ ɜ 2009 ɝ. ɛɵɥɢ ɩɪɢɧɹɬɵ ɫɨɝɥɚɲɟɧɢɹ, ɫɨɝɥɚɫɧɨ ɤɨɬɨɪɵɦ ɫɬɪɚɧɵ ɞɨɝɨɜɨɪɢɥɢɫɶ, ɱɬɨ ɞɥɹ ɩɪɟɞɨɬɜɪɚɳɟɧɢɹ ɤɪɢɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɨɝɟɧɧɵɯ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɣ ɜ ɤɥɢɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ
ɫɢɫɬɟɦɟ, ɪɨɫɬ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɣ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ ɞɨɥɠɟɧ ɛɵɬɶ ɨɝɪɚɧɢɱɟɧ ɦɟɧɟɟ, ɱɟɦ 2°C ɤ ɫɟɪɟɞɢɧɟ ɜɟɤɚ [1]. ɇɚ Ʉɨɧɮɟɪɟɧɰɢɢ ɈɈɇ ɩɨ
ɤɥɢɦɚɬɭ (ɞɟɤɚɛɪɶ 2015 ɝ.) ɷɬɚ ɨɰɟɧɤɚ ɛɵɥɚ ɩɪɢɧɹɬɚ ɤɚɤ ɦɢɧɢɦɚɥɶɧɨ
ɞɨɩɭɫɬɢɦɵɣ ɩɨɤɚɡɚɬɟɥɶ ɩɨɬɟɩɥɟɧɢɹ ɤ ɫɟɪɟɞɢɧɟ ɜɟɤɚ. ɋɟɣɱɚɫ ɷɬɨɬ ɭɪɨɜɟɧɶ
ɩɨɥɨɠɟɧ ɜ ɨɫɧɨɜɭ ɜɫɟɯ ɷɧɟɪɝɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɫɬɪɚɬɟɝɢɣ. Ȼɵɥɨ ɩɨɞɫɱɢ-
ɬɚɧɨ, ɱɬɨ ɨɝɪɚɧɢɱɟɧɢɟ ɫɨɜɨɤɭɩɧɵɯ ɜɵɛɪɨɫɨɜ ɩɚɪɧɢɤɨɜɵɯ ɝɚɡɨɜ ɞɨ
1000 Ƚɬ CO
ɷɤɜɢɜɚɥɟɧɬɚ (ɷɤɜ) ɩɪɢɜɟɞɟɬ ɫ 25-ɩɪɨɰɟɧɬɧɨɣ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨ-
2
ɫɬɶɸ ɤ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɨɦɭ ɩɨɬɟɩɥɟɧɢɸ, ɩɪɟɜɵɲɚɸɳɟɦɭ 2°C, ɜ ɬɨ ɜɪɟɦɹ ɤɚɤ
ɫɨɜɨɤɭɩɧɵɣ ɩɪɟɞɟɥ 1440 Ƚɬ CO
ɩɪɢɜɟɞɟɬ ɤ 50-ɩɪɨɰɟɧɬɧɨɣ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨ-
2
ɫɬɶɸ ɩɨɬɟɩɥɟɧɢɹ ɫɜɵɲɟ 2°ɋ [2]. ɋɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɭɸɳɢɣ ɫɰɟɧɚɪɢɣ ɫɬɚɛɢɥɢɡɚɰɢɢ ɜɵɛɪɨɫɨɜ, ɪɚɡɪɚɛɨɬɚɧɧɵɣ IPCC, [3,4] ɞɚɟɬ ɨɛɳɢɟ ɜɵɛɪɨɫɵ
108
ɨɤɨɥɨ 1600 Ƚɬ CO
-ɷɤɜ ɜ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ ɫ 2000 ɞɨ 2100 ɝ. Ⱦɥɹ ɫɪɚɜɧɟɧɢɹ, ɜ
2
ɫɰɟɧɚɪɢɹɯ ɛɟɡ ɞɨɩɨɥɧɢɬɟɥɶɧɵɯ ɦɟɪ ɩɨ ɫɨɤɪɚɳɟɧɢɸ ɜɵɛɪɨɫɵ ɫɥɟɞɭɟɬ
ɨɠɢɞɚɬɶ ɜɟɥɢɱɢɧɭ ɤɭɦɭɥɹɬɢɜɧɵɯ ɜɵɛɪɨɫɨɜ ɜ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ 2000-2050 ɝɝ.) ɧɚ
ɭɪɨɜɧɟ 2500-4000 ȽɬɋɈ2-ɷɤɜ ɢ ɞɨɩɨɥɧɢɬɟɥɶɧɨ 2100-3300 Ƚɬ CO
-ɷɤɜ
2
ɜ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ ɫ 2050 ɞɨ 2100 Ɍɚɤɢɦ ɨɛɪɚɡɨɦ, ɨɝɪɚɧɢɱɟɧɢɟ ɪɨɫɬɚ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ 2°ɋ ɩɨɬɪɟɛɭɟɬ ɫɨɤɪɚɳɟɧɢɟ ɤɭɦɭɥɹɬɢɜɧɵɯ ɜɵɛɪɨɫɨɜ
ɩɪɢɦɟɪɧɨ 1000 ɞɨ 3000 Ƚɬ CO2 ɞɨ 2050 ɝɨɞɚ, ɢ 3000 ɞɨ 6000 Ƚɬ
CO
2
ɞɨ 2100.1
CO
2
ȼ ɪɚɦɤɚɯ ɷɬɨɣ ɢɞɟɢ ɤɨɧɫɭɥɶɬɚɬɢɜɧɚɹ ɤɨɦɩɚɧɢɹ
PricewaterhouseCoopers ɪɚɡɪɚɛɨɬɚɥɚ ɩɪɢɦɟɪɧɵɟ ɰɟɥɟɜɵɟ ɭɫɬɚɧɨɜɤɢ ɩɨ
ɫɨɤɪɚɳɟɧɢɸ ɜɵɛɪɨɫɨɜ ɭɝɥɟɪɨɞɚ ɞɥɹ ɛɨɥɶɲɢɧɫɬɜɚ ɫɬɪɚɧ ɦɢɪɚ ɞɨ 2050
ɝ. ȼ ɱɚɫɬɧɨɫɬɢ, ɞɥɹ Ɋɨɫɫɢɢ ɛɵɥɚ ɪɟɤɨɦɟɧɞɨɜɚɧɚ ɤɜɨɬɚ ɜ ɪɚɡɦɟɪɟ 4% ɨɬ
ɜɟɥɢɱɢɧɵ ɞɨɩɭɫɬɢɦɵɯ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɜɵɛɪɨɫɨɜ ɞɨ 2050 ɝ., ɬ.ɟ. ɧɟ ɛɨɥɟɟ
50-52 Ƚɬ ɋɈ2. ɋ ɭɱɟɬɨɦ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɝɨ ɪɨɫɬɚ ȼȼɉ ɫɬɪɚɧɵ ɢ
ɷɧɟɪɝɨɩɨɬɪɟɛɥɟɧɢɹ ɞɨɫɬɢɠɟɧɢɟ ɷɬɢɯ ɩɪɟɞɟɥɶɧɵɯ ɝɪɚɧɢɰ ɩɨɬɪɟɛɭɟɬ ɫɨɤɪɚɳɟɧɢɹ ɤɚɪɛɨɧɨɟɦɤɨɫɬɢ ȼȼɉ ɫɬɪɚɧɵ ɧɚ 90% ɤ ɫɟɪɟɞɢɧɟ ɜɟɤɚ.
Ɋɨɫɫɢɹ ɧɟ ɦɨɠɟɬ ɨɫɬɚɜɚɬɶɫɹ ɜɧɟ ɷɬɨɝɨ ɬɪɟɧɞɚ, ɱɬɨɛɵ ɩɨɞɞɟɪɠɢɜɚɬɶ ɫɜɨɣ ɦɟɠɞɭɧɚɪɨɞɧɵɣ ɚɜɬɨɪɢɬɟɬ ɢ ɨɛɟɫɩɟɱɢɜɚɬɶ ɜɵɫɨɤɨɬɟɯɧɨɥɨɝɢɱɧɨɟ ɪɚɡɜɢɬɢɟ ɫɜɨɟɦɭ ɬɨɩɥɢɜɧɨ-ɷɧɟɪɝɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɦɭ ɤɨɦɩɥɟɤɫɭ. Ɇɟɠɞɭ ɬɟɦ, ɞɨ ɫɢɯ ɩɨɪ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɨɰɟɧɤɢ ɜɥɢɹɧɢɹ ɜɨɡɦɨɠɧɵɯ ɨɝɪɚɧɢɱɟɧɢɣ
ɧɚ ɜɵɛɪɨɫɵ ɩɚɪɧɢɤɨɜɵɯ ɝɚɡɨɜ ɧɟ ɩɨɥɭɱɢɥɢ ɞɨɥɠɧɨɝɨ ɩɨɧɢɦɚɧɢɹ ɢ ɩɨɞɞɟɪɠɤɢ ɫɨ ɫɬɨɪɨɧɵ ɪɭɤɨɜɨɞɫɬɜɚ ɫɬɪɚɧɵ ɢ ɧɚɭɱɧɵɯ ɨɪɝɚɧɢɡɚɰɢɣ.
ɍɱɢɬɵɜɚɹ, ɱɬɨ ɨɤɨɥɨ 70-75% ɜɵɛɪɨɫɨɜ ɋɈ
ɩɪɢɯɨɞɢɬɫɹ ɧɚ ɞɢɨɤ-
2
ɫɢɞ ɭɝɥɟɪɨɞɚ, ɨɛɪɚɡɭɸɳɢɣɫɹ ɩɪɢ ɫɠɢɝɚɧɢɢ ɬɨɩɥɢɜ, ɬɨ ɪɟɲɚɸɳɭɸ
ɪɨɥɶ ɜ ɛɨɪɶɛɟ ɫ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɦ ɩɨɬɟɩɥɟɧɢɟɦ ɛɭɞɭɬ ɢɝɪɚɬɶ ɦɟɪɵ ɩɨ ɫɨɤɪɚɳɟɧɢɸ ɩɨɬɪɟɛɥɟɧɢɹ ɨɪɝɚɧɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɬɨɩɥɢɜ ɜ ɷɧɟɪɝɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɭɫɬɚɧɨɜɤɚɯ. Ɉɫɧɨɜɧɵɟ ɧɚɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɢɹ, ɤɨɬɨɪɵɟ ɫɩɨɫɨɛɫɬɜɭɸɬ ɪɟɲɟɧɢɸ
ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦɵ ɫɨɤɪɚɳɟɧɢɹ ɜɵɛɪɨɫɨɜ ɋɈ
ɜ ɷɧɟɪɝɟɬɢɤɟ ɜ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɹɯ ɪɚɫɬɭ-
2
ɳɟɝɨ ɫɩɪɨɫɚ ɧɚ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɸ, ɡɚɤɥɸɱɚɸɬɫɹ ɜ:
- ɫɧɢɠɟɧɢɢ ɷɧɟɪɝɨɟɦɤɨɫɬɢ ɷɤɨɧɨɦɢɤɢ ɡɚ ɫɱɟɬ ɩɨɜɵɲɟɧɢɹ ɷɮ-
ɮɟɤɬɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɷɧɟɪɝɨɪɟɫɭɪɫɨɜ,
- ɫɨɤɪɚɳɟɧɢɢ ɤɚɪɛɨɧɨɟɦɤɨɫɬɢ ɩɨɬɪɟɛɥɹɟɦɨɣ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɢ ɡɚ ɫɱɟɬ ɢɡ-
ɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ ɫɬɪɭɤɬɭɪɵ ɩɟɪɜɢɱɧɵɯ ɢɫɬɨɱɧɢɤɨɜ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɢ ɜ ɫɬɨɪɨɧɭ ɭɜɟɥɢɱɟɧɢɹ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɩɪɢɪɨɞɧɨɝɨ ɝɚɡɚ ɢ ɭɜɟɥɢɱɟɧɢɹ ɞɨɥɢ ɛɟɡɭɝɥɟɪɨɞ-
1
Ɂɞɟɫɶ ɫɥɟɞɭɟɬ ɜɚɠɧɵɣ ɜɵɜɨɞ, ɱɬɨ ɞɨɩɭɫɬɢɦɵɟ ɪɚɡɦɟɪɵ ɜɵɛɪɨɫɨɜ ɋɈ2 ɜɨ ɦɧɨɨɝ ɪɚɡ ɦɟɧɶɲɟ ɡɚɩɚɫɨɜ ɭɝɥɟɪɨɞɚ,
ɫɨɞɟɪɠɚɳɟɝɨɫɹ ɜ ɨɪɝɚɧɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɬɨɩɥɢɜɚɯ ɜ ɧɟɞɪɚɯ ɩɥɚɧɟɬɵ. ɗɬɨ ɨɡɧɚɱɚɟɬ, ɱɬɨ ɜɜɟɞɟɧɢɟ ɨɝɪɚɧɢɱɟɧɢɣ ɧɚ ɜɵɛɪɨɫɵ ɋɈ
ɜɭɸ ɨɱɟɪɟɞɶ ɭɝɥɹ. ɋɦ. ɛɨɥɟɟ ɩɨɞɪɨɛɧɨ ɧɚ ɷɬɭ ɬɟɦɭ [5,6].
ɡɚɫɬɚɜɢɬ ɨɫɬɚɜɢɬɶ ɜ ɧɟɞɪɚɯ ɧɟɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɧɵɦɢ ɡɧɚɱɢɬɟɥɶɧɭɸ ɱɚɫɬɶ ɩɪɢɪɨɞɧɵɯ ɡɚɩɚɫɨɜ ɬɨɩɥɢɜɚ, ɜ ɩɟɪ-
2
109
ɧɵɯ ɬɟɯɧɨɥɨɝɢɣ ɩɨɥɭɱɟɧɢɹ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɢ (ɚɬɨɦɧɚɹ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɹ, ɜɨɡɨɛɧɨɜɥɹɟɦɵɟ ɢɫɬɨɱɧɢɤɢ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɢ).
- ɫɨɜɟɪɲɟɧɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɟ ɷɧɟɪɝɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɷɮɮɟɤɬɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ ɢ ɫɧɢɠɟɧɢɢ ɡɚɬɪɚɬ ɧɚ ɩɨɥɭɱɟɧɢɟ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɢ ɜ ɧɨɜɵɯ ɢ ɬɪɚɞɢɰɢɨɧɧɵɯ ɷɧɟɪɝɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɚɯ.
Ʉɚɤ ɜɢɞɧɨ ɢɡ ɬɚɛɥ. 1, Ɋɨɫɫɢɹ ɨɛɥɚɞɚɟɬ ɛɨɥɶɲɢɦɢ ɪɟɡɟɪɜɚɦɢ ɞɥɹ
ɜɵɩɨɥɧɟɧɢɹ ɩɨɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɧɨɣ ɡɚɞɚɱɢ ɩɨ ɫɨɯɪɚɧɟɧɢɸ ɤɥɢɦɚɬɚ ɜ ɞɨɥɝɨɫɪɨɱɧɨɣ ɩɟɪɫɩɟɤɬɢɜɟ.
Ɍɚɛɥɢɰɚ 1
Ɍɟɧɞɟɧɰɢɢ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ ɨɫɧɨɜɧɵɯ
ɮɚɤɬɨɪɨɜ ɜ ɪɹɞɟ ɪɟɝɢɨɧɨɜ ɦɢɪɚ,
ɜɥɢɹɸɳɢɯ ɧɚ ɷɮɮɟɤɬɢɜɧɨɫɬɶ ɩɨɥɢɬɢɤɢ ɫɨɯɪɚɧɟɧɢɹ ɤɥɢɦɚɬɚ
Ɋɨɫɫɢɹ ɈɗɋɊ Ʉɢɬɚɣ Ɇɢɪ
ɗɧɟɪɝɨɟɦɤɨɫɬɶ
ȼȼɉ.
ɬ ɧ.ɷ./$1000
Ʉɚɪɛɨɧɨɟɦɤɨɫɬɶ
ɷɧɟɪɝɨɩɨɬɪɟɛɥɟɧɢɹ,
/ɬ ɧ.ɷ.
ɬɋɈ
2
Ⱦɨɥɹ ɛɟɡɭɝɥɟɪɨɞɧɵɯ ɬɨɩɥɢɜ ɜ ɷɧɟɪɝɨɩɨɬɪɟɛɥɟɧɢɢ, %
2000
2013
2000-2013
(%/ɝɨɞ)
2000
2013
2000-2013
(%/ɝɨɞ)
2000
2013
2000-2013
(ɩ.ɩ.)
0,491 0,168 0,345 0,211
0,331 0,148 0,116 0,184
-3%* -1,6% -2,1% -1%
2,43 2,34 2,86 2,26
2,28 2,26 2,82 2,29
-0,64%** -0,3% -0,28% +0,07%
10,4% 15,4% 7,3% 13,0%
11,8% 17,8% 10,8% 13,7%
+1,4 ɩ.ɩ. +2,4 ɩ.ɩ. +3,5 ɩ.ɩ. +0,7 ɩ.ɩ.
Ʉɚɪɛɨɧɨɟɦɤɨɫɬɶ
ȼȼɉ, ɬ ɋɈ
* ɫɧɢɠɟɧɢɟ ɷɧɟɪɝɨɟɦɤɨɫɬɢ ɩɨɥɭɱɟɧɨ ɜ ɨɫɧɨɜɧɨɦ ɡɚ ɫɱɟɬ ɫɨɤɪɚɳɟɧɢɹ ɷɧɟɪɝɨɟɦɤɢɯ ɩɪɨɢɡɜɨɞɫɬɜ; ɜ ɞɚɥɶ-
ɧɟɣɲɟɦ ɷɬɨɬ ɮɚɤɬɨɪ ɛɭɞɟɬ ɢɝɪɚɬɶ ɦɟɧɶɲɭɸ ɪɨɥɶ ɢ ɬɟɦɩɵ ɫɧɢɠɟɧɢɹ ɷɧɟɪɝɨɟɦɤɨɫɬɢ ɧɟɢɡɛɟɠɧɨ ɫɧɢɡɹɬɫɹ,
** ɪɨɫɬ ɩɨɬɪɟɛɥɟɧɢɹ ɩɪɢɪɨɞɧɨɝɨ ɝɚɡɚ ɧɟɫɨɦɧɟɧɧɨ ɫɩɨɫɨɛɫɬɜɨɜɚɥ ɫɨɤɪɚɳɟɧɢɸ ɤɚɪɛɨɧɨɟɦɤɨɫɬɢ ɷɧɟɪɝɨɩɨɬɪɟɛɥɟɧɢɹ, ɧɨ ɨɞɧɨɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɨ ɬɨɪɦɨɡɢɥ ɪɚɫɲɢɪɟɧɢɟ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɛɟɡɭɝɥɟɪɨɞɧɵɯ ɬɟɯɧɨɥɨɝɢɣ; ɩɪɢ ɨɬɫɭɬɫɬɜɢɢ ɨɝɪɚɧɢɱɟɧɢɣ ɧɚ ɜɵɛɪɨɫɵ ɋɈ
*** ɧɟɫɦɨɬɪɹ ɧɚ ɡɚɦɟɬɧɨɟ ɫɧɢɠɟɧɢɟ ɤɚɪɛɨɧɨɟɦɤɨɫɬɢ ȼȼɉ, ɞɥɹ ɜɵɯɨɞɚ ɧɚ ɰɟɥɟɜɵɟ ɭɫɬɚɧɨɜɤɢ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɫɬɪɚɬɟɝɢɢ ɫɨɤɪɚɳɟɧɢɹ ɪɢɫɤɨɜ ɤɪɢɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɩɨɬɟɩɥɟɧɢɹ ɤɥɢɦɚɬɚ ɤ 2050 ɝ. ɷɬɢ ɬɟɦɩɵ ɞɨɥɠɧɵ ɛɵɬɶ ɩɨɜɵɲɟɧɵ ɧɟ ɦɟɧɟɟ, ɱɟɦ ɜ ɞɜɚ ɪɚɡɚ.
ɂɫɬɨɱɧɢɤ: ɪɚɫɱɟɬɵ ɚɜɬɨɪɚ.
/$1000
2
2000
2013
2000-2013
(%/ɝɨɞ)
ɷɬɚ ɬɟɧɞɟɧɰɢɹ ɛɭɞɟɬ ɫɨɯɪɚɧɹɬɶɫɹ,
2
1,19 0,39 0,99 0,48
0,75 0,31 0,74 0,42
-2,1%*** -1,62% -3,85% -1,27%
110
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