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Divergent aging patterns

In developed countries and many of the more advanced developing countries, the declining ratio of working people to retirees will strain social services, pensions, and health systems. Governments will seek to make the problem milder through such measures as delaying retirement, encouraging greater participation in the work force by women, and relying on migrant workers. The shift towards a greater proportion of older voters will change the political dynamics in these countries in ways difficult to foresee.

At the same time, a high proportion of young people trend will persist in some developing countries, in Sub-Saharan Africa and a few countries in Latin America and the Middle East. This factor will be destabilizing, particularly when combined with high unemployment or communal tension.

Movement of People

Two major trends in the movement of people will characterize the next 15 years — urbanization and cross-border migration — each of which poses both opportunities and challenges.

Divergent demographic trends, the globalization of labor markets, and political instability and conflict will fuel a dramatic increase in the global movement of people through 2015. Legal and illegal migrants now account for more than 15 per cent of the population in more than 50 countries. These numbers will grow substantially and will increase social and political tension and perhaps alter national identities even as they contribute to demographic and economic dynamism.

States will face increasing difficulty in managing migration pressures and flows, which will number several million people annually. Over the next 15 years, migrants will seek to move:

  • To North America primarily from Latin America and East and South Asia.

  • To Europe primarily from North Africa and the Middle East, South Asia, and the post-Communist states of Eastern Europe and Eurasia.

  • From the least to the most developed countries of Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa.

2. Give Russian equivalents of the following words and phrases.

To foresee; a trend; to diminish; life expectancy; to diverge; to shape; a birthrate; to strain; a voter; to contribute to smth; mortality; a communal tension; AIDS; to persist; a cross-border migration; to experience; a ratio.

3. Give English equivalents of the following words and phrases.

Напрягать; смертность; СПИД; продолжительность жизни; миграция за пределы страны; расходиться; соотношение; формировать; уровень рождаемости; избиратель; вносить вклад; уменьшить; переживать/испытывать; религиозная и расовая напряженность; сохраняться; тенденция; предвидеть.

4. Read the article again and complete the following sentences.

  1. The international system in 2015 will be shaped by ...

  2. The rate of world population growth will...

  3. Life expectancy will contribute to ...

  4. Some countries in Africa with high rates of AIDS will experience ...

  5. As a result of high mortality and low birthrates, Russia's population ...

  6. In developed countries the declining ratio of working people to retirees will strain...

  7. The shift towards a greater proportion of older voters will change ...

  8. A high proportion of young people trend will persist in ...

  9. Two major trends in the movement of people are ...!

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