2. Give Russian equivalents of the following words and combinations.

To maintain order; to benefit from; to constrain conflicts; to mediate conflicts; to back; to take on (importance/responsibility); to affect smb/smth; an outcome; a breakup; to break up.

3. Give English equivalents of the following words and phrases.

Развал; принимать на себя (ответственность); выигрывать от/извлекать выгоду из; посредничать в конфликтах; разваливаться; поддерживать порядок; сдерживать конфликты; влиять на что-либо; поддерживать; результат/исход.

4. Read the article again and answer the questions.

1. What conflicts between Muslim and non-Muslim peoples do you know? Can you remember the years of those conflicts and reason?

2. What are the two causes of such conflicts according to the author? Do you agree?

3. What role do diasporas play in these conflicts?

4. What is the US position as far as the Chechen conflict is concerned? Why do you think it changed after the September 11 events?

5. Comment on the following extracts from the article.

1. Almost everywhere in the contemporary world, people are espousing cultural and civilizational identities.

2. Multi-civilizational states are increasingly being challenged.

3. The United States does not have any significant national interests in Chechnya, while it has such interests in Russia.

4. In the long run, Russia cannot win this war, and the United States cannot significantly affect the outcome.

II

Read the additional article and comment on it.

Transnational terrorism

States with poor governance; ethnic, cultural, or religious tensions; weak economies will be prime grounds for terrorism. At the same time, the trend away from state-supported political terrorism and toward more diverse, transnational networks — enabled by information technology — will continue. Some of the states that actively sponsor terrorism or terrorist groups today may decrease or even cease their support by 2015 as a result of regime changes, or the conclusion that terrorism has become counterproductive. But weak states also could drift toward cooperation with terrorists, creating de facto new state supporters. Between now and 2015 terrorist tactics will become increasingly sophisticated and aimed at achieving mass casualties. We expect the trend toward greater lethality in terrorist attacks to continue.

III

1. Read the article and look up the meaning of the underlined words and phrases in the dictionary. Global trends: future conflict

Through 2015, internal conflicts will pose the most frequent threat to stability around the world. Interstate wars, though less frequent, will grow in lethality due to the availability of more destructive technologies. The international community will have to deal with the military, political, and economic dimensions of the rise of China and India and the continued decline of Russia. Many internal conflicts, particularly those arising from communal disputes, will continue to be dangerous, long lasting and difficult to terminate.

• They frequently will trigger refugee flows, humanitarian emergencies. and other regionally destabilizing dislocations.

• Internal conflicts will cause spillover into inter-state conflicts as neighboring states move to exploit opportunities for gain or to limit the possibilities of damage to their national interests.

• Weak states will face internal conflicts, threatening the stability of a globalizing international system.

Internal conflicts growing from state repression, religious and ethnic discontent, increasing migration pressures will occur most frequently in Sub Saharan Africa, the Caucasus and Central Asia, and parts of south and Southeast Asia, Central America and the Andean region.

The United Nations and several regional organizations will continue to be called upon to manage some internal conflicts because major states — stressed by domestic concerns, risk of failure, lack of political will, or tight resources — will wish to minimize their direct involvement. When, however, some Western governments, international and regional organizations press for outside military intervention in certain internal conflicts, they will be opposed by such states as China, India, Russia and many developing countries that will tend to view interventions as dangerous precedents challenging state sovereignty.