another ancient uranium deposit (1300 million years) that has remained in place by virtue of a clay halo; this is despite the presence of an active (but reducing) groundwater flow system. In contrast, one of the 1800 million year old uranium deposits at Alligator Rivers (Australia) sits in the partially saturated zone a few tens of metres below the surface. The deposit has undergone weathering and alteration over the past 1–3 million years. Interactions with oxidising groundwater and rainwater infiltration have led to uranium migration, precipitation and secondary mineralisation in a dispersion halo up to 80 m distant from the primary ore body. Study of this site has enabled testing of radionuclide transport models of relevance to a shallow repository or the Yucca Mountain site.

Many other natural analogues, e.g., Poc˛os de Caldas, Needle’s Eye, Broubster, Tono Mine, El Berrocal and Palmottu, offer insights into radionuclide (especially uranium) transport and retardation under different geosphere conditions. Information on the solubility of naturally occurring radionuclides and other trace elements in groundwaters that have been in contact with uranium-bearing minerals can be used to test the robustness of equilibrium thermodynamic models and databases that provide the basis for the relevant safety assessment models of radionuclide migration. Through formalised model testing (see Pate et al. (1994), for details), it has been shown that incorrect assumptions have been made concerning the nature and properties of the mineral phase that controls solubility, resulting in the need to carry out research to characterise the relevant phase and determine its thermodynamic properties. Where the analogue allows the tracing of the migration of a radionuclide over geological timescales, it additionally allows testing of coupled transport and reaction models, where there is typically a requirement to conduct laboratory-scale research into the kinetics of surface reactions. Although permanent retention of radionuclides in the geosphere is not a feature of SA modelling, an understanding that such processes will occur over relevant timescales under defined conditions can provide a complementary line of evidence in a repository safety case.

8.6. Model and database development

All models begin with conceptualisation – the basic understanding on which a model is constructed. For the conceptualisation to yield quantitative information, the conceptual model must first be expressed mathematically. Mathematical models come in many forms: some may be so simple as to be almost trivial, others may require complex numerical routines and associated software. In any event, the mathematical model must be populated with data. These three needs: understanding (i.e., conceptualisation), data and models are the principal R&D requirements of any SA.

A useful distinction can be made between the detailed models used in the underlying research (‘‘research models’’) and system (or process) models that calculate the behaviour of the total system, or a part of it. Research models cover a wide range of complexity and uncertainty. At one extreme they may employ standard approaches with fundamental data; at the other they can be semi-quantitative explanations of difficult- to-reproduce phenomena. An example of the first type is calculation of the radionuclide inventory of SF. An example of the second is the thermo-hydro-chemo-mechanical models of changes when the bentonite buffer around a waste container interacts with groundwater.

System models draw on the research models for data and, often, a simplified conceptualisation that is necessary to make the mathematics tractable or else calculable within ordinary computing constraints – this is known as data abstraction. An example of a system model is the solubility/sorption limitation model described earlier. This makes a number of simplifying assumptions. Amongst these are two assumptions that relate to the chemistry of radionuclides in solution; namely that, under the conditions that prevail in a repository, (i) the solubility of a radionuclide can be expressed by a single number and (ii) sorption of a radionuclide on a near-field material (e.g., the buffer) can be expressed in terms of a single-valued coefficient that expresses the ratio of the concentration of radionuclide attached to the solid, to the concentration of radionuclide in solution (i.e., Kd-values). It falls to the research models to demonstrate that, if these assumptions are not strictly true, they are, at least, fit for purpose.

Given the large investments in R&D in the past 30 years, it is no surprise that many computer programs and databases now exist. Some are proprietary, of course, but there are many others that have been made available to the public, sometimes through an intermediary such as an international or government agency. The NEA-OECD list alone runs to several hundred items. Other agencies such as IAEA and the major US government laboratories have similar long lists. Some of the older data compilations appear in published books or on websites. Open access encourages wider use of the various models and databases and raises confidence in their applicability by exposing them to broad-based criticism so that any obvious flaws can be corrected and improvements can be suggested.

8.7. Conclusions

The information in this chapter illustrates that:

A detailed scientific understanding has been developed of the processes most relevant to the design, performance and long-term safety of geological repositories. As noted in Chapter 3, this is based on over five decades of work in materials science, chemistry, earth sciences and many more specialist disciplines.

A range of possibilities exist for design and construction of engineered barriers to complement both the geological barriers and the different types of radioactive waste. A sound and practical understanding has been developed of the properties of the relevant materials with respect to their fabrication and performance in a repository environment.

The accumulated scientific knowledge is sufficient to understand the long-term containment and migration of radionuclides in the engineered barriers and geosphere. Although uncertainties will always be present, these can be bounded sufficiently to be able to estimate the long-term performance of a repository system through quantitative models. Confidence in the results from these performance calculations is supported by evidence from natural analogues and long-term experiments in underground research facilities.

Almost all of the above knowledge and experience has been gained in open scientific and technical programmes and much of it has come from multinational collaborative programmes. This openness and collaboration allows for efficient dissemination of ideas and results, healthy discussion and critical peer review.

Finally, it is also clear that we do not know everything: several areas requiring further R&D exist (and some have been pointed out here) and will be examined in the coming years to ensure that radwaste can be safely disposed of in deep geological repositories.

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