plan wants to promote the multi-modal transport of LNG, especially one involving the transport of LNG in tanks, by river and ocean. Moreover, it looks to develop the corresponding ocean-going LNG-powered fleet (COSCO Shipping Group and China Merchants Group are encouraged to use LNG-powered vessels on their routes), develop floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs), and promote the development of an LNG-powered fleet for inland rivers, either by constructing a new fleet or adapting the old fleet. These LNG-fuelled vessels will be particularly promoted on the Beijing-Hangzhou Canal, Yangtze River, Xijiang shipping line and Pearl River Delta. As for new uses, the plan looks to promote the use of LNG in port vehicles, small ships like tugboats and other operating machinery, especially in key areas like Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas and the Yangtze River Delta, and to develop LNG bunkering.

Concerning inland LNG, China is already making progress. In July 2018 private companies Guanghui Energy and China Huadian Corporation announced their intention to build an inland LNG terminal in Yueyang city (Hunan province), with a capacity of 2.72 billion cubic metres per year (bcm/y), the first phase to be ready by December 2020 (0.68 bcm/y). In January 2019, it was announced that the Chinese coal miner Huainan Mining Group received provincial approval for its inland LNG terminal in Wuhu (Anhui), with a capacity of 2.04 bcm/y, due to be ready for completion in 2022.

In November 2018, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) put in place the first multimodal LNG transport when the company transported LNG in tanks from their LNG regasification terminal in Hainan, South China, to the northern region (Shandong province and the city of Jinzhou) (China LNG Group, 2018).

Sources: China LNG Group (2018), “Ceremony of CNOOC Jinzhou Port”, www.lnggroup.cn/a/lng-new/jt/112.html; Ministry of Transport (2018), “Letter from the General Office of the Ministry of Transport for the opinions on deepening the advancement of the application of liquefied natural gas in the water operation industry”, http://zizhan.mot.gov.cn/zfxxgk/bnssj/syj/201808/t20180810_3056391.html.

Assumptions

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook, published in April 2019, provides the main macroeconomic assumptions for this natural gas consumption forecast (IMF, 2019). After global gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.3% in 2019 and 3.6% in 2020, the IMF expects world output to expand at an average rate of 3.5% per year to 2024.

This report uses the average of futures prices taken over the period September 2018 to March 2019 as price indicators. Futures are financial products used by the energy industry for risk management purposes and are not to be considered as price forecasts. As the liquidity of futures contracts is much lower for the longer maturities (beyond 18 to 36 months, depending on the market), this report combines information from the average of futures curves with medium-term fuel price assumptions as contained in the World Energy Outlook 2018 (IEA, 2018a) to provide an indication of assumed longer term price evolution. For Europe, this report assumed Title Transfer Facility (TTF) prices of USD 6.6 per million British thermal units (MBtu) for 2019-20 and USD 6.4/MBtu in 2021, growing in the second part of the forecast period to reach an average of USD 7.2/MBtu by 2024. In North America, the Henry Hub prices are assumed to stay below USD 3/MBtu until 2024. In Asia, oil-linked liquefied natural gas (LNG) import prices are assumed to stay around an average of USD 8/MBtu, whereas spot LNG prices are assumed to remain below oil-indexed prices on average. The price of coal imported into

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