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- •Foreword
- •Acknowledgements
- •Table of contents
- •List of figures
- •List of boxes
- •List of tables
- •Executive summary
- •After another record year, gas demand is set to keep growing to 2024
- •Asia is the key to demand growth, driven by China’s push for gas
- •The United States leads global growth in natural gas supply and exports
- •The global gas trade’s expansion is mainly driven by LNG
- •LNG investment is increasing, but more will be needed
- •Towards a global convergence of natural gas prices?
- •1. Demand
- •Highlights
- •Global overview
- •Sectoral outlook
- •Focus on LNG as a maritime fuel
- •Assumptions
- •Regional outlook
- •Asia Pacific
- •China
- •Japan
- •Korea
- •Australia
- •Other emerging Asian economies
- •India
- •Pakistan
- •Bangladesh
- •North America
- •United States
- •Canada
- •Mexico
- •Middle East
- •Iran
- •United Arab Emirates
- •Saudi Arabia
- •Eurasia
- •Russia
- •Belarus
- •Ukraine
- •Caspian
- •Europe
- •Power generation
- •Residential and commercial
- •Industry
- •Central and South America
- •Argentina
- •Brazil
- •Africa
- •Egypt
- •Algeria
- •Other North Africa
- •Sub-Saharan Africa
- •References
- •2. Supply
- •Highlights
- •Global overview
- •Regional supply outlook
- •North America
- •United States
- •Canada
- •Mexico
- •Asia Pacific
- •China
- •Unconventional gas
- •Developing the network to reduce internal supply bottlenecks
- •Increasing UGS capacity to develop seasonal flexibility
- •Australia
- •Other emerging Asian economies
- •India
- •Indonesia
- •Middle East
- •Iran
- •Qatar
- •Saudi Arabia
- •Eurasia
- •Russia
- •Azerbaijan
- •Other Caspian
- •Europe
- •Norway
- •The Netherlands
- •Other Europe
- •Central and South America
- •Argentina
- •Brazil
- •Africa
- •Egypt
- •Algeria
- •Sub-Saharan Africa
- •References
- •3. Trade
- •Highlights
- •Global natural gas trade
- •Regional trade outlook
- •Asia Pacific
- •China
- •LNG infrastructure
- •LNG supply
- •Pipeline imports and infrastructure
- •Japan and Korea
- •Other emerging Asian economies
- •Europe
- •Recent trends
- •A widening supply–demand gap
- •Natural gas infrastructure
- •The role of LNG
- •Americas
- •North America
- •South America
- •Global LNG market
- •2018 marked a third year of strong LNG trade growth
- •LNG demand outlook
- •LNG supply outlook
- •LNG trade flows
- •Liquefaction capacity and investment
- •LNG shipping outlook
- •References
- •4. Prices and market reforms
- •Highlights
- •Market prices in 2018–19
- •Asian LNG prices – from tight to loose
- •Europe – a counter seasonal price pattern
- •North America – stability and volatility
- •Global natural gas pricing overview
- •Prospects for natural gas trading hubs in Asia
- •Pricing and market reforms in regulated environments
- •China
- •City gate prices
- •End-user prices
- •India
- •Pakistan
- •Egypt
- •Russia
- •References
- •Annexes
- •Tables
- •Glossary
- •Regional and country groupings
- •Africa
- •Asia Pacific
- •Caspian
- •Central and South America
- •Eurasia
- •Europe
- •European Union
- •Middle East
- •North Africa
- •North America
- •List of acronyms, abbreviations and units of measure
- •Acronyms and abbreviations
- •Units of measure
![](/html/65386/283/html_Jkgnih9k38.cZGM/htmlconvd-Z4xJ2186x1.jpg)
Gas Market Report 2019 |
2. Supply |
The government is also moving forward to develop prospective shale gas potential. According to the Australian Energy Resources Assessment, the potentially recoverable shale gas resources are estimated at 12 tcm out of a total of 250 tcm of prospective shale gas resources (Figure 2.15). The largest shale gas deposit is located in the Canning basin in Western Australia, along with other smaller formations in Queensland, South Australia and the Northern Territory. The Northern Territory lifted its moratorium on fracturing in April 2018, and some first drilling is currently targeted for 2019. The Government of Western Australia also lifted its moratorium on hydraulic fracturing in November 2018, but limited activity to existing petroleum titles – accounting for only 2% of Western Australia’s territory.
Figure 2.15 Natural gas produced, remaining and potentially recoverable, Australia
tcm |
5 |
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tcm |
14 |
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4 |
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12 |
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10 |
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3 |
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8 |
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2 |
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6 |
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4 |
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1 |
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2 |
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0 |
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Conventional |
CBM |
Shale |
Tight |
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Conventional |
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Shale |
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Produced |
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Remaining |
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Potentially recoverable |
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Note: Produced and remaining gas as of 2014.
Source: Geoscience Australia (2019), Australian Energy Resources Assessment, https://aera.ga.gov.au/.
The country has a strong remaining conventional resource base and prospective shale gas potential for a supply source in the longer term.
To further encourage the natural resource sector to adopt a longer-term policy approach, the Australian government released the National Resources Statement in February 2019 (DIIS, 2019). The statement includes a goal to develop new resources, industries and markets and remove barriers, and also to attract investment by delivering a globally attractive and competitive investment destination for resources projects.
Other emerging Asian economies
Despite the strong demand growth forecast in the other emerging Asian economies (see Chapter 1), domestic natural gas production in this region is anticipated to plateau at 310 bcm/y during the forecast period (Figure 2.16).
PAGE | 86
IEA. All rights reserved.
![](/html/65386/283/html_Jkgnih9k38.cZGM/htmlconvd-Z4xJ2187x1.jpg)
Gas Market Report 2019 2. Supply
Figure 2.16 Natural gas production by country, other emerging Asian economies, 2004–24
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350 |
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Change over period |
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300 |
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250 |
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200 |
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150 |
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0 |
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100 |
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- 5 |
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2012-18 |
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2018-24 |
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2024 |
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Bangladesh |
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Malaysia |
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IEA, 2019. All rights reserved.
Regional natural gas production slightly declines over the forecast period.
India
India recorded its first gas production increase in seven years in fiscal year 2017/18, from 31 bcm/y to 32.7 bcm/y, or an increase of about 6%. The previous decline in production was mainly related to the stalled activities in the offshore blocks of the KG-D6 field off India’s east coast, together with lack of new investment. Since the government’s initiative to develop the hydrocarbon sector, which targets the reduction of dependency on oil and gas imports by 10% by 2022, the implementation of some of its policies has already materialised.
India’s production recovery results from new investment in onshore capacity, including CBM production. Production from three of India’s seven CBM blocks has increased, in total from 0.57 bcm in fiscal year 2016/17 to 0.81 bcm in fiscal year 2017/18, or a 45% increase (Figure 2.17). Due to the slow installation of gas gathering stations, the projected production increase is limited to those three fields – Sohagpur West, Raniganj (East) and Raniganj (South).
Figure 2.17 CBM production by block, actual and government projection, India, 2016–21
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2.5 |
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Jharia |
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2.0 |
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NK-CBM-2001/1 |
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1.5 |
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BK-CBM-2001/1 |
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1.0 |
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0.5 |
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Sohagpur West |
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0.0 |
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2015-16 |
2016-17 |
2017-18 |
2018-19 |
2019-20 |
2020-21 |
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Notes: Production figures provided in fiscal years. Projection starts from fiscal year 2018/19.
Source: Standing Committee on Petroleum & Natural Gas (2018), “Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas Twenty Fifth Report”, http://164.100.47.193/lsscommittee/Petroleum%20&%20Natural%20Gas/16_Petroleum_And_Natural_Gas_25.pdf.
Domestic CBM production is projected to reach 2.7 bcm by fiscal year 2020/21.
PAGE | 87
IEA. All rights reserved.