The majority of natural gas exploration and production activity is done by state-owned companies (known as public sector undertakings or PSUs) – namely Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India (OIL). Private and foreign players entered Indian exploration and production in the late 1990s under the NELP (New Exploration Licensing Policy) framework.

According to the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, the balance of recoverable conventional natural gas reserves as of 1 April 2018 amounted to 1 340 bcm, of which 61% are located offshore. Reserves under the production-sharing contract (PSC) regime account for 49% of the total, whereas ONGC and OIL account for a respective 42% and 9%. As for unconventional resources, recoverable CBM reserves are estimated at 108 bcm, while different estimates for shale gas resources range from 45 to 2 100 trillion cubic feet (or 1.3–59 tcm).

For fiscal year 2017/18, ONGC and OIL accounted respectively for 71% and 9% of total natural gas production, the remaining 20% being produced under the PSC regime. Over two-thirds (67%) of natural gas production came from offshore fields, and in particular from the Mumbai Basin where the ONGC-operated Bassein and Mumbai High fields accounted for 33% and 16% of total production respectively.

Greater flexibility in the production pricing regime was introduced gradually to further incentivise investment: pricing freedom was introduced in 2016 subject to a ceiling for production from discoveries in deepwater, ultra-deepwater and high-pressure high-temperature fields. In February 2019 the government granted marketing and pricing freedom to all new natural gas discoveries whose field development plans had yet to be approved (see Chapter 4).

The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas shared its latest outlook on domestic production during the July 2018 session of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Petroleum and Natural Gas. It forecasts a doubling5 of production by fiscal year 2021/22 and significant changes in the production mix, as private producers under the PSC regime are expected to quadruple their output.

Indonesia

Indonesian gas production is expected to slightly increase during the forecast period. Pertamina, the state-owned oil and natural gas corporation, is seeking approval from the government for its plan to increase upstream spending by as much as 25% or a maximum of USD 3 billion, to boost exploration activities. Repsol announced in February 2019 the largest gas find in Indonesia since 2001 in South Sumatra, with a preliminary estimate of at least 2 trillion cubic feet (about 58 bcm) of recoverable resources. Further drilling and seismic campaigns are planned in 2019–20.

Middle East

Natural gas production in the Middle East is expected to grow at an average 1.8% per annum up to 2024. Driven predominantly by Iran and Saudi Arabia, total production is expected to surpass 700 bcm/y at the end of the forecast period (Figure 2.18). This forecast does not include a 45 bcm/y upside potential if Qatar pushes through an increase in North Field production and the development of additional liquefaction capacity, as no FID has been taken at the time of writing.