Gas Market Report 2019 |
1. Demand |
the government announced that national oil and gas company Saudi Aramco would acquire a 70% stake in petrochemicals producer Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC).
Eurasia
Preliminary data indicate that natural gas consumption in the Eurasia region continued to grow in 2018, mainly driven by rising domestic demand in Russia. Eurasian natural gas demand is expected to stagnate over the coming years, with slight decreases in Russia and Belarus being compensated by some growth in Caspian countries (Figure 1.22).
Figure 1.22. Natural gas consumption by country and by sector, Eurasia, 2004–24
bcm
700 |
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bcm |
800 |
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600 |
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700 |
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500 |
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600 |
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500 |
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400 |
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300 |
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300 |
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200 |
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200 |
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100 |
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100 |
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0 |
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0 |
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2004 |
2008 |
2012 |
2016 |
2020 |
2024 |
2004 |
2009 |
2014 |
2019 |
2024 |
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Russia |
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Belarus |
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Ukraine |
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Power generation |
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Industry |
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Uzbekistan |
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Turkmenistan |
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Kazakhstan |
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Residential and commercial |
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Transport (including pipeline) |
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Other Eurasia |
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Energy industry own use |
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Losses |
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IEA, 2019. All rights reserved.
Investment in chemicals and petrochemicals production drives Eurasian gas consumption, whilst improving fuel efficiency and deployment of new nuclear capacity in Russia and Belarus reduces gas burn for power generation.
Russia
Russia’s natural gas consumption increased by an estimated 5.3% y-o-y in 2018 to around 493 bcm (Gazprom, 2019a). This is the third consecutive year of demand increase in the Russian domestic market since the beginning of the decade.
This has been primarily driven by economic growth, higher gas burn in the power sector and demand from the residential sector. Preliminary data from Russia’s Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) indicates that economic growth climbed to a six-year high in 2018, with a rate of 2.3% (Figure 1.23). In particular, gas-intensive and export-oriented sectors such as non-metallic minerals, metallurgy and chemicals (altogether accounting for over 70% of Russian industrial gas consumption) grew strongly, which supported incremental gas demand (Rosstat, 2019).
PAGE | 45
IEA. All rights reserved.
Gas Market Report 2019 |
1. Demand |
Figure 1.23. Natural gas consumption growth in gas-intensive industrial sectors, Russia, 2017–18
Nonmetallic minerals
Chemicals
Metallurgy
0% |
1% |
2% |
3% |
4% |
5% |
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year-on-year growth |
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Source: Rosstat (2019), ИндексыпроизводствапоРоссийскойФедерации[Industrial Production Indices of the Russian Federation], www.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_main/rosstat/ru/statistics/enterprise/industrial/#.
Russia’s export-oriented and gas-intensive industrial sectors, representing over 70% of industrial gas consumption, continued to grow strongly in 2018 and supported incremental gas demand.
Russia’s Economic Development Ministry foresees economic growth slowing to 1.3% in 2019, whilst in the medium term it is expected to be more moderate, averaging 1.5% per year (TASS, 2019; IMF, 2019). Gas-to-chemicals is expected to be the most important driver behind Russian industrial gas demand in the medium term. Low feedstock gas prices in Russia (at about USD 2.5 per million British thermal units [MBtu] in 2018) makes gas-to-chemicals production highly competitive. Moreover, the development of the chemical sector is set as a priority in the Russian Energy Strategy up to 2030, envisaging the construction of new chemical complexes in the medium term (Minenergo, 2009). Table 1.5 provides a summary of the largest gas-to- chemicals plants currently under development in Russia.
Table 1.5 Large gas-to-chemicals plants under development in Russia
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Plant |
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Products and capacity |
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Planned start-up |
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Impact on gas |
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demand |
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Nahodinsky fertiliser |
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methanol 1.8 Mtpa |
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2022 |
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3.5 bcm/yr |
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and methanol complex |
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ammonia 1.8 Mtpa |
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Kuybyshev Azot |
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ammonium nitrate |
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0.84 Mtpa |
2021 |
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1 bcm/y |
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expansion |
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urea 0.55 Mtpa |
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Uralkhim expansion |
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urea 0.28 Mtpa |
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2021 |
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0.2 bcm/y |
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Shekino Azot |
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ammonia 0.15 Mtpa |
2018/19 |
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0.7 bcm/y |
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methanol 0.5 Mtpa |
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Evrokhim Phosphorit |
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ammonia 1 Mtpa |
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2019/20 |
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1.3 bcm/y |
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expansion |
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Sources: Company reports.
Gazprom’s deliveries to power companies grew by over 10% in 2018 (Gazprom, 2019b). This was supported by growing electricity and heat generation (1.8% and 1.7% respectively) and by rising domestic coal prices incentivising coal-to-gas switching in the power sector, driven by the
PAGE | 46
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Gas Market Report 2019 |
1. Demand |
reaction to increasing international coal prices (ARA Rotterdam climbed by 9% y-o-y) and higher Russian coal exports (10% increase y-o-y).
This could change in 2019, with Rotterdam coal futures trading almost 20% lower compared to last year’s average price. Hence, coal could potentially regain market share within Russia’s thermal generation mix at the expense of gas. In the medium term increasing fuel efficiency from the most recent gas-fired power plants, as well as the refurbishment of the existing power fleet, is expected to contribute to a decrease in natural gas consumption in spite of overall electricity demand growth. Steam power plants with an average electrical efficiency rate of 30% currently represent three-quarters of the Russian gas-fired fleet, whilst modern CCGT plants operate with an efficiency rate of 50–55%.
In January 2019 the Russian government adopted a programme for the modernisation of thermal power generation plants. Accordingly, 41 GW of capacity is due to be upgraded to higher technical and efficiency standards between 2022 and 2031, of which 11 GW between 2022 and 2024 (Vedomosti, 2019). In addition, the deployment of new nuclear capacity in the western part of Russia (where most gas-fired power generation is concentrated) will further weigh on gas demand from the power sector. As shown in Table 1.6, 3.65 GW of nuclear capacity is currently under construction, all of which is expected to enter operation between 2020 and 2024, whilst two reactors (Kursk 1 and 2) with a combined capacity of 1.9 GW are set to retire by the end of the forecast period.
Gazprom’s deliveries to the residential and commercial sector grew by 4.3% in 2018, driven by a prolonged heating season in the first and second quarters and late cold snaps in the fourth. Gazprom is continuing its gas connectivity programme, with the average mains gas penetration level increasing from 53% in 2005 to 68.6% by the beginning of 2019 (Gazprom, 2019b). However, higher connection rates do not necessarily lead to increasing gas consumption, as the newly connected consumers (located in towns and villages with low population density) have in general a lower demand potential compared to the large traditional consuming centres. According to Gazprom, in 2017 the 1% increase in the gas connection rate translated into a mere 0.4% of incremental demand potential (Gazprom, 2018). It is expected that higher building efficiency standards, especially in new buildings, will mitigate increased demand for space heating through the forecast period. Residential demand is forecast to stagnate, with limited growth from future gasification and the slowly improving thermal insulation of the building stock. Overall, Russia’s gas demand declines by a mere 0.5% through the forecast period.
Table 1.6 Power reactors under construction in Russia
Plant |
Technology |
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Novovoronezh II-2 |
VVER-1200/V-392M |
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Leningrad II-2 |
VVER-1200/V-491 |
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Kursk II-1 |
VVER TOI/V-510 |
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* Considering a CCGT with electrical efficiency of 45%. Note: MWe = megawatt electrical.
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Capacity |
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Planned start- |
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Impact on gas |
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(MWe net) |
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up |
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demand* |
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1 200 |
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2019/20 |
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1.9 bcm/y |
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1 199 |
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2022/23 |
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1.9 bcm/y |
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1 255 |
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2022/23 |
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2 bcm/y |
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Source: World Nuclear Association, Nuclear Power in Russia, www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries- o-s/russia-nuclear-power.aspx.
PAGE | 47
IEA. All rights reserved.
Gas Market Report 2019 |
1. Demand |
Belarus
Belarus’s natural gas consumption mainly relates to heat and power generation, which accounted for 71% of natural gas consumption in 2017. Natural gas accounts for almost all of the country’s heat and power output (Belstat, 2018). The commissioning of the Ostrovets 1 and 2 nuclear reactors during 2019–21 (2.388 gigawatts electrical [GWe]) will reduce electricity import needs from Russia (2.3 TWh in 2017 and 0.56 TWh in 2018) and will weigh on gas demand from the power sector (SO-UPS, 2019). The country’s economic growth prospects are limited and natural gas market share is already very high, while most of the transmission and production infrastructure has a low level of efficiency, all these factors resulting in an anticipated decline in natural gas consumption over the medium term.
Ukraine
Ukrainian gas consumption rose in 2018 by 1.3%, the first increase since 2010. This has been driven by the recovery of the industrial sector, and in particular by chemicals and petrochemicals production output growing at a rate of 17.4% and metallurgy increasing by 9% y-o-y (UkrStat, 2018). Gas burn in the power sector has been rising, as growing electricity production coincided with a low level of nuclear availability (69.6%) (UA Energy, 2019). In the medium term, further growth in demand from industry and the power sector is supported by GDP growth averaging above 3% (IMF, 2019). Consumption in the residential and commercial sector is expected to continue to decline in the medium term as gas prices are set to rise, incentivising fuel switching and energy efficiency investment. This will mitigate demand growth from industry and for power generation, with overall Ukrainian gas demand expected to stagnate over the forecast period.
Caspian
Preliminary data suggest that Turkmen gas consumption increased by 2% in 2018. Domestic gas demand is dominated by power generation and the residential and commercial sector, together accounting for almost 80% of Turkmenistan’s gas demand. Gas connection levels have reached 99%, leaving very little space for additional gas demand from this sector (Azernews, 2019). Gas burn in the power sector is expected to increase with the recent commissioning of the 400 MWe Zerger and 1 574 MWe Mary-3 gas-fired power plants (NCA, 2018a). Both will primarily serve export markets, Afghanistan and Pakistan respectively.
In order to diversify its industry, the Turkmen government continues to develop its chemical and fertiliser sectors. In September 2018 the Garabogaz fertiliser plant was commissioned with a production capacity of 1.1 million tonnes of urea per year. The plant will use approximately 1 bcm of natural gas as feedstock per year (NCA, 2018b). A new chemical complex was inaugurated in October 2018, with annual production capacity of 386 000 tonnes of polyethylene and more than 81 000 tonnes of polypropylene – with annual feedstock requirements estimated to be 5 bcm. This forecast expects these investments to translate into gas demand growing at an annual rate of 5.3% throughout the period to the end of 2024 – the highest in the Eurasian region.
The high level of gas connectivity in other Caspian countries limits further gas demand growth, especially if some of the gas efficiency potential is realised. In Kazakhstan, where two-thirds of gas consumption relates to energy industry own use, further demand is limited by the plateauing of oil production. In Azerbaijan, where the share of gas is over 90% both in the power and residential sectors, gas demand remains stable over the forecast period. Uzbekistan
PAGE | 48
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