This forecast expects natural gas trade to grow at an average annual rate of almost 4% over the next five years to reach 32% of total natural gas consumption. Global LNG trade is expected to stand at 546 bcm by 2024, or about 60% of interregional trade.

Global natural gas trade is set to increase not only in volume, but also in terms of number of participants with an increasing number of new buyers and sellers, enabled mainly by the development of LNG flows.

On the demand side, the Asia Pacific region keeps its role as main importing area, but with a shift from traditional buyers such as Japan and Korea to rapidly growing economies, led by China but also including major emerging markets in South and Southeast Asia.

On the supply side, Eurasia keeps its position as the largest pipeline exporting region, with growing capacity and flows to China (from both Russia and Caspian), while the LNG export picture is redefined by the development of Australia and the United States, which challenge the strong position of the Middle East – and Qatar in particular.

Regional trade outlook

Asia Pacific

Most additional trade in the Asia Pacific region is expected to come from LNG imports – except for China, where pipeline deliveries from Russia and Caspian keep increasing with the development of new capacity. China is also the main contributor to LNG trade growth in the region, surpassing Korea in terms of imports in 2017 and becoming the world’s largest LNG importer in 2024, ahead of Japan (Figure 3.2).

Figure 3.2 LNG imports, China, Japan and Korea, 2012–24

IEA, 2019. All rights reserved.

China is expected to become the world’s largest LNG importer by 2024.