increasing import needs of the Netherlands (as the Groningen field is gradually phased out).

The role of LNG

Europe is also seeking to further diversify its supply options via LNG and additional investment in regasification terminals. In Poland, Polskie LNG has taken FID on the expansion of the

ŚwinoujścieLNG terminal from the current 5 bcm/y to 7.5 bcm/y, to be completed bythe end of

2022 (InterfaxEnergy, 2018). In January 2019 Krk LNG in Croatia reached FID to procure and operate an FSRU vessel. It will have a regasification capacity of 2.5 bcm/y and is scheduled to start commercial operations in the autumn of 2020. The total project is estimated to cost EUR 234 million. A grant of EUR 101.4 million has been received from the European Commission and a further EUR 100 million from the Government of Croatia (KrkLNG, 2019).

Germany, Europe’s largest natural gas market, has no LNG import terminal at present. This is likely to change through the forecast period given that LNG is seen as a tool to introduce wider supply options and diversity to the German gas market. Four projects are currently under consideration, located in Brunsbüttel (with a capacity of 5 bcm/y and supported by Gasunie, Oiltanking and Vopak), Stade (4 bcm/y and backed by Dow Germany), Wilhelmshaven (10 bcm/y and promoted by Uniper) and Rostock (0.4 bcm/y, supported by Fluxys and Novatek). Both Brunsbüttel and Wilhelmshaven are targeting start-up by the end of 2022. Whilst none of the terminals had reached FID at the time of writing, Germany’s Economy Minister stated in February 2019 that it can be expected that at least two projects “will be realised” in the near future (Reuters, 2019a).

LNG is expected to play an increasingly important role in Europe’s natural gas supply portfolio, growing at a rate of 4% per year through the forecast period from 66 bcm in 2018 to 86 bcm by 2024.

Americas

North America

The United States is the main driver of natural gas trade growth within North America, with the development of pipeline exports to Mexico. The US pipeline trade balance has evolved over recent years towards a gradual reduction in net imports as export flows to Mexico more than tripled – from 14 bcm in 2011 to 48 bcm in 2018 (Figure 3.13). Imports from Canada slightly decreased in 2018 while exports increased.

Pipeline trade flows between the United States and Canada remain stable over the forecast period in spite of the strong growth of US domestic production, as Canada remains a pivotal source of supply to the US Pacific Coast, Northeast and Midwest markets, which have limited interconnection capacity with major US shale production areas. US LNG imports are mainly limited to the supply of the Everett terminal in the Northeast (around 2 bcm/y).