Natural gas consumption for power generation has grown at an average of 2.7% per year since 2012. Canada’s government plans to reduce emissions by phasing out coal-fired generation by 2030, and aims to have 90% of electricity from non-emitting sources by that time. Coal and gas each currently account for only 9% of Canadian power generation. While the coal phase-out target might be expected to present an opportunity for natural gas, the 90% non-emitting target discourages further gas growth. Consumption for gas-fired power generation displays more limited growth due to the expansion of renewable capacity, and is expected to increase at an average 1.7% per year during the forecast period. In December 2018 the Canadian government finalised its plan to reduce emissions, with the announcement of final regulations for the coal phase-out and greenhouse gas regulations for natural gas-fired electricity (Government of Canada, 2018).

The industrial sector accounts for about 20% of natural gas consumption in Canada and is mostly driven by chemicals – both for energy-related uses and as feedstock. The development of petrochemicals production is expected to remain the main growth factor for natural gas consumption in the near future, although at a slower pace with an average 1.7% annual increase to 2024 (compared with 2% over the past five years).

Mexico

Natural gas demand in Mexico slightly decreased in 2018, mostly due to lower consumption in power generation and industry compared to previous years (Figure 1.19). Gas consumption in both sectors has been increasing since 2012 and is projected to continue this trend over the forecast period, with a compound average annual growth rate of 2.5% for total consumption until 2024.

Figure 1.19. Natural gas consumption by sector, Mexico, 2004–24

Natural gas consumption for power generation and industry is expected to resume growth after a decline in 2018.