market further limits the use of the Kochi LNG terminal. As a result, the country’s total receiving capacity remains at only 20–30 bcm/y on average, despite a nameplate capacity of over 47 bcm/y in total.

The government has long planned to build new terminals; however technical and financial issues have pushed back the development of new regasification terminals since 2013. The country’s fourth LNG terminal and India’s first east coast regasification project, Ennore LNG started operations in March 2019. The terminal is designed to receive over 6 bcm/y of LNG, to be used mainly as feedstock in the fertiliser industry as a substitute for naphtha. As four more terminals are planned to start operations during the forecast period, the bottlenecks in receiving and transporting LNG supply are more likely to be cleared for better distribution within the country.

Pakistan

Pakistan has historically relied on domestic production for its natural gas supply. However, the country’s domestic gas production volume has plateaued since 2008, as drilling activities stagnated and discoveries remained limited and insufficient to offset declines from mature fields. Despite the government’s efforts to attract foreign investors by amending natural gas regulation and policies, field development activities are not expected to accelerate during the forecast period.

The power sector in Pakistan has been relying on expensive oil imports. These are expected to be gradually replaced by alternative sources, including natural gas through planned LNG-to- power projects, and also by coal. The power sector accounted for about 30% of Pakistan’s natural gas demand in 2018 (Sheldrick, 2018). However, the main source of natural gas demand growth has been the industrial sector, led by fertilisers, and this trend is forecast to continue during the coming years. Industrial sector demand accounted for 36% of total gas demand in 2018, and is expected to account for over 40% by 2024. With agricultural lands covering almost half of the country’s surface, and estimated population growth of over 1.9% per year, total fertiliser sales are expected to continue to grow at a strong rate in the coming years.

Pakistan has a notable gas-fuelled vehicle fleet, with the transport sector accounting for 5% of total gas consumption, or about 2 bcm in 2018. CNG has been used for road transport in trucks and buses since the 1990s, and there are an estimated 3.7 million CNG vehicles in use in Pakistan. However, without domestic gas production activities or increasing imports of LNG, CNG is expected to face strong competition from power generation and industrial demand, and eventually from residential use of natural gas.

The country has been planning to import natural gas through the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan– Pakistan–India (TAPI) and the Iran–Pakistan–India (IPI) pipelines; however, neither project is expected to be confirmed or completed in the coming five years due to their complex financial and political constraints. As a consequence, the country started to import LNG in 2015. Pakistan has since been actively sourcing LNG from suppliers with competitive offers to fill its growing domestic demand. Pakistan has so far imported almost 70% of its LNG from Qatar – followed in 2018 by Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, the United States and Australia.

In the absence of foreseeable international pipeline completion, combined with declining domestic production and domestic demand increasing in the industrial sector, Pakistan is likely to continue to rely on LNG imports during the forecast period. The country currently has two receiving terminals in operation with a total capacity of 15 bcm/y. The government plans over USD 8 billion of investment in gas infrastructure, including transmission lines and combined-

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IEA. All rights reserved.

PAGE | 35

IEA. All rights reserved.