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World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook / 255

World Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization

	08/09	09/10	10/11	11/12	12/13	13/14	14/15	15/16	16/17	17/18	18/19
Sunflower Seed					(Thousand Hectares)
Area Harvested	23,822	23,718	23,889	24,148	24,278	24,399	24,499	24,622	24,753	24,889	25,019
					(Thousand Metric Tons)
Production	33,421	32,145	32,692	33,332	33,804	34,258	34,671	35,120	35,583	36,054	36,519
Beginning Stocks	2,779	3,850	3,902	3,913	3,948	3,972	3,991	4,007	4,026	4,044	4,065
Domestic Supply	36,200	35,995	36,594	37,245	37,752	38,230	38,662	39,127	39,609	40,098	40,584
Crush	28,566	28,287	28,832	29,389	29,831	30,255	30,643	31,055	31,485	31,916	32,348
Other Use	3,417	3,439	3,482	3,542	3,582	3,617	3,645	3,678	3,713	3,750	3,785
Residual	367	367	367	367	367	367	367	367	367	367	367
Ending Stocks	3,850	3,902	3,913	3,948	3,972	3,991	4,007	4,026	4,044	4,065	4,084
Domestic Use	36,200	35,995	36,594	37,245	37,752	38,230	38,662	39,127	39,609	40,098	40,584
Trade *	1,045	877	1,241	1,313	1,348	1,378	1,427	1,472	1,512	1,550	1,587
Sunflower Meal
Production	12,567	12,408	12,634	12,878	13,067	13,246	13,408	13,580	13,760	13,940	14,121
Consumption	12,184	12,137	12,362	12,608	12,799	12,979	13,141	13,312	13,492	13,673	13,854
Ending Stocks	320	326	333	338	341	344	346	348	351	354	357
Trade *	3,226	3,184	3,193	3,208	3,237	3,275	3,301	3,317	3,341	3,364	3,386
Sunflower Oil
Production	11,674	11,538	11,759	11,986	12,167	12,340	12,499	12,668	12,845	13,022	13,200
Consumption	10,710	11,027	11,247	11,473	11,651	11,824	11,982	12,151	12,328	12,505	12,683
Ending Stocks	940	937	933	931	932	934	936	939	940	943	945
Trade *	3,440	3,756	3,809	3,878	3,955	4,035	4,119	4,211	4,307	4,408	4,510
						(Kilograms)
Per Capita Consumption	1.58	1.61	1.62	1.63	1.64	1.64	1.65	1.65	1.66	1.67	1.67

* Excludes intraregional trade.

256 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization

	08/09	09/10	10/11	11/12	12/13	13/14	14/15	15/16	16/17	17/18	18/19
Sunflower Seed					(Thousand Hectares)
Area Harvested	965	817	802	819	817	811	810	810	815	818	822
					(Metric Tons per Hectare)
Yield	1.62	1.58	1.60	1.62	1.63	1.65	1.66	1.68	1.70	1.71	1.73
					(Thousand Metric Tons)
Production	1,567	1,293	1,282	1,324	1,333	1,336	1,348	1,362	1,384	1,403	1,423
Beginning Stocks	120	199	171	163	173	176	177	177	176	179	180
Domestic Supply	1,687	1,492	1,453	1,487	1,505	1,512	1,525	1,538	1,560	1,582	1,603
Crush	710	685	671	676	683	688	699	722	749	778	810
Food	638	571	562	577	580	581	583	584	589	592	596
Ending Stocks	199	171	163	173	176	177	177	176	179	180	182
Domestic Use	1,547	1,426	1,397	1,426	1,439	1,446	1,458	1,482	1,516	1,551	1,588
Net Trade	140	65	56	62	66	66	66	56	44	31	15
Sunflower Meal
Production	350	337	331	333	337	339	344	356	369	384	399
Beginning Stocks	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Domestic Supply	354	342	335	338	341	344	349	360	373	388	404
Consumption	335	322	316	318	322	324	329	341	354	369	384
Ending Stocks	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Domestic Use	339	327	320	323	326	329	334	345	358	373	389
Net Trade	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Sunflower Oil
Production	308	297	291	293	297	299	303	313	325	338	352
Beginning Stocks	29	42	37	36	37	37	37	37	37	38	38
Domestic Supply	337	339	329	329	333	336	341	351	362	375	390
Consumption	302	318	322	329	333	337	339	343	347	351	356
Ending Stocks	42	37	36	37	37	37	37	37	38	38	38
Domestic Use	344	356	358	366	370	374	377	381	385	389	394
Net Trade	-7	-17	-29	-36	-37	-38	-36	-30	-22	-14	-4

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook / 257

Argentine Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization

	08/09	09/10	10/11	11/12	12/13	13/14	14/15	15/16	16/17	17/18	18/19

Sunflower Seed					(Thousand Hectares)
Area Harvested	2,100	2,468	2,601	2,658	2,690	2,713	2,738	2,766	2,798	2,830	2,862
					(Metric Tons per Hectare)
Yield	1.73	1.77	1.78	1.79	1.81	1.82	1.83	1.84	1.85	1.86	1.88
					(Thousand Metric Tons)
Production	3,630	4,370	4,636	4,769	4,858	4,932	5,008	5,093	5,185	5,278	5,370
Beginning Stocks	1,861	1,028	1,055	1,055	1,066	1,074	1,080	1,085	1,092	1,097	1,103
Domestic Supply	5,491	5,398	5,691	5,824	5,923	6,005	6,088	6,178	6,277	6,375	6,473
Crush	4,300	4,254	4,340	4,452	4,549	4,642	4,727	4,816	4,914	5,009	5,109
Other Use	88	73	108	110	112	113	114	116	117	119	120
Ending Stocks	1,028	1,055	1,055	1,066	1,074	1,080	1,085	1,092	1,097	1,103	1,107
Domestic Use	5,416	5,382	5,503	5,628	5,734	5,835	5,927	6,024	6,128	6,231	6,337
Net Trade	75	16	188	196	189	171	161	154	149	143	135
Sunflower Meal
Production	1,815	1,796	1,832	1,879	1,920	1,959	1,995	2,033	2,074	2,114	2,157
Beginning Stocks	102	105	106	108	110	111	112	112	113	114	115
Domestic Supply	1,917	1,901	1,938	1,988	2,030	2,070	2,107	2,145	2,187	2,228	2,271
Consumption	612	627	645	663	676	689	700	713	728	743	757
Ending Stocks	105	106	108	110	111	112	112	113	114	115	116
Domestic Use	717	733	754	773	787	800	813	827	842	857	872
Net Trade	1,200	1,167	1,185	1,215	1,243	1,270	1,295	1,319	1,345	1,371	1,399
Sunflower Oil
Production	1,785	1,766	1,802	1,848	1,888	1,927	1,962	1,999	2,040	2,080	2,121
Beginning Stocks	44	47	47	46	46	47	47	47	47	47	47
Domestic Supply	1,829	1,813	1,848	1,895	1,935	1,974	2,009	2,046	2,087	2,127	2,168
Consumption	397	401	407	413	419	425	430	436	441	447	453
Ending Stocks	47	47	46	46	47	47	47	47	47	47	47
Domestic Use	444	448	453	460	466	471	477	483	488	494	500
Net Trade	1,385	1,365	1,395	1,435	1,469	1,502	1,532	1,563	1,599	1,632	1,669

258 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook

Chinese Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization

	08/09	09/10	10/11	11/12	12/13	13/14	14/15	15/16	16/17	17/18	18/19

Sunflower Seed					(Thousand Hectares)
Area Harvested	850	848	856	858	856	859	859	860	859	858	856
					(Metric Tons per Hectare)
Yield	1.76	1.78	1.79	1.80	1.81	1.82	1.84	1.85	1.86	1.87	1.88
					(Thousand Metric Tons)
Production	1,500	1,507	1,531	1,544	1,552	1,567	1,579	1,590	1,599	1,607	1,613
Beginning Stocks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Domestic Supply	1,500	1,507	1,531	1,544	1,552	1,567	1,579	1,590	1,599	1,607	1,613
Crush	642	650	649	642	632	628	625	621	616	613	611
Food Use	650	677	680	687	694	699	703	708	713	718	722
Other Use	95	97	99	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Ending Stocks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Domestic Use	1,387	1,425	1,428	1,428	1,426	1,427	1,428	1,429	1,430	1,431	1,433
Net Trade	113	82	104	116	126	140	151	161	169	176	180
Sunflower Meal
Production	350	354	354	350	345	342	341	338	336	334	333
Beginning Stocks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Domestic Supply	350	354	354	350	345	342	341	338	336	334	333
Feed Use	315	317	314	308	300	296	292	288	283	279	276
Industrial Use	40	42	45	47	50	52	53	55	58	60	62
Ending Stocks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Domestic Use	355	359	359	355	350	347	346	343	341	339	338
Net Trade	-5	-5	-5	-5	-5	-5	-5	-5	-5	-5	-5
Sunflower Oil
Production	230	233	233	230	226	225	224	222	221	220	219
Beginning Stocks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Domestic Supply	230	233	233	230	226	225	224	222	221	220	219
Consumption	245	254	265	278	291	303	313	325	337	349	361
Ending Stocks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Domestic Use	245	254	265	278	291	303	313	325	337	349	361
Net Trade	-15	-21	-32	-49	-65	-78	-90	-103	-116	-129	-142

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook / 259

European Union Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization

	08/09	09/10	10/11	11/12	12/13	13/14	14/15	15/16	16/17	17/18	18/19

Sunflower Seed					(Thousand Hectares)
Total Area Harvested	3,700	3,453	3,355	3,389	3,423	3,443	3,434	3,427	3,421	3,413	3,403
					(Metric Tons per Hectare)
Yield	1.88	1.75	1.77	1.78	1.80	1.81	1.83	1.84	1.86	1.87	1.89
					(Thousand Metric Tons)
Production	6,950	6,053	5,931	6,041	6,153	6,241	6,274	6,313	6,352	6,388	6,420
Beginning Stocks	211	1,015	1,041	1,044	1,048	1,053	1,058	1,063	1,069	1,075	1,082
Domestic Supply	7,161	7,068	6,971	7,085	7,201	7,294	7,332	7,376	7,421	7,463	7,502
Crush	5,719	5,434	5,427	5,554	5,624	5,676	5,707	5,742	5,777	5,810	5,839
Other Use	677	687	684	693	704	713	720	729	738	747	756
Ending Stocks	1,015	1,041	1,044	1,048	1,053	1,058	1,063	1,069	1,075	1,082	1,089
Domestic Use	7,411	7,162	7,155	7,295	7,381	7,448	7,490	7,540	7,590	7,640	7,684
Net Trade	-250	-93	-183	-210	-180	-154	-158	-164	-169	-176	-182
Sunflower Meal
Production	3,130	2,974	2,970	3,040	3,078	3,107	3,124	3,143	3,162	3,180	3,195
Beginning Stocks	75	140	142	146	147	149	150	150	152	153	155
Domestic Supply	3,205	3,114	3,113	3,185	3,225	3,255	3,273	3,293	3,313	3,333	3,350
Consumption	4,667	4,579	4,645	4,692	4,733	4,769	4,790	4,797	4,811	4,825	4,838
Ending Stocks	140	142	146	147	149	150	150	152	153	155	156
Domestic Use	4,807	4,721	4,791	4,839	4,881	4,919	4,940	4,949	4,964	4,979	4,994
Net Trade	-1,602	-1,607	-1,678	-1,654	-1,656	-1,663	-1,667	-1,655	-1,651	-1,646	-1,644
Sunflower Oil
Production	2,270	2,157	2,154	2,204	2,232	2,253	2,265	2,279	2,293	2,306	2,317
Beginning Stocks	80	255	255	255	252	253	253	255	257	258	260
Domestic Supply	2,350	2,412	2,410	2,459	2,485	2,506	2,519	2,534	2,549	2,564	2,578
Food Use	2,995	3,096	3,152	3,199	3,233	3,267	3,296	3,328	3,360	3,392	3,424
Biodiesel and Industrial Use	353	496	512	523	527	531	534	539	546	553	561
Other Use	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Ending Stocks	255	255	255	252	253	253	255	257	258	260	262
Domestic Use	3,605	3,849	3,921	3,977	4,015	4,054	4,086	4,125	4,166	4,207	4,249
Net Trade	-1,255	-1,437	-1,511	-1,517	-1,531	-1,548	-1,568	-1,591	-1,616	-1,643	-1,672

260 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook

Other CIS Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization

	08/09	09/10	10/11	11/12	12/13	13/14	14/15	15/16	16/17	17/18	18/19

Sunflower Seed					(Thousand Hectares)
Area Harvested	6,550	6,674	6,735	6,809	6,874	6,940	7,008	7,079	7,150	7,222	7,294
					(Metric Tons per Hectare)
Yield	1.23	1.18	1.19	1.21	1.22	1.23	1.24	1.25	1.27	1.28	1.29
					(Thousand Metric Tons)
Production	8,065	7,886	8,040	8,211	8,372	8,537	8,705	8,880	9,056	9,235	9,414
Beginning Stocks	294	688	702	707	710	713	714	716	717	719	721
Domestic Supply	8,359	8,574	8,743	8,919	9,083	9,250	9,420	9,595	9,773	9,954	10,135
Crush	6,648	6,808	6,918	7,067	7,211	7,356	7,500	7,644	7,790	7,936	8,082
Other Use	730	767	761	767	772	776	779	783	787	791	795
Ending Stocks	688	702	707	710	713	714	716	717	719	721	722
Domestic Use	8,066	8,278	8,386	8,545	8,696	8,846	8,995	9,145	9,296	9,448	9,599
Net Trade	293	297	356	374	387	404	425	450	477	506	536
Sunflower Meal
Production	2,484	2,544	2,585	2,641	2,694	2,749	2,802	2,856	2,911	2,965	3,020
Beginning Stocks	4	39	40	41	41	41	41	41	42	42	42
Domestic Supply	2,488	2,583	2,625	2,681	2,735	2,790	2,844	2,898	2,952	3,007	3,062
Consumption	2,057	2,086	2,145	2,207	2,258	2,303	2,360	2,431	2,498	2,568	2,638
Ending Stocks	39	40	41	41	41	41	41	42	42	42	42
Domestic Use	2,096	2,126	2,185	2,248	2,299	2,344	2,401	2,472	2,540	2,610	2,680
Net Trade	392	457	439	433	437	446	442	425	413	398	381
Sunflower Oil
Production	2,750	2,794	2,839	2,900	2,959	3,018	3,077	3,137	3,196	3,256	3,316
Beginning Stocks	197	215	217	218	218	219	219	219	219	220	220
Domestic Supply	2,947	3,009	3,056	3,118	3,177	3,237	3,296	3,356	3,416	3,476	3,536
Consumption	2,282	2,241	2,272	2,304	2,324	2,340	2,354	2,369	2,387	2,402	2,419
Ending Stocks	215	217	218	218	219	219	219	219	220	220	220
Domestic Use	2,497	2,458	2,490	2,523	2,542	2,559	2,574	2,589	2,607	2,622	2,639
Net Trade	450	551	565	595	635	678	723	767	809	854	897

Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook / 261

Ukrainian Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization

	08/09	09/10	10/11	11/12	12/13	13/14	14/15	15/16	16/17	17/18	18/19
Sunflower Seed					(Thousand Hectares)
Area Harvested	4,100	4,037	4,082	4,089	4,080	4,073	4,070	4,073	4,076	4,082	4,092
					(Metric Tons per Hectare)
Yield	1.54	1.40	1.42	1.44	1.45	1.47	1.48	1.50	1.51	1.53	1.55
					(Thousand Metric Tons)
Production	6,300	5,671	5,811	5,884	5,933	5,984	6,042	6,107	6,174	6,246	6,322
Beginning Stocks	75	463	467	467	469	470	472	472	473	474	475
Domestic Supply	6,375	6,134	6,278	6,351	6,402	6,455	6,514	6,579	6,647	6,720	6,797
Crush	5,400	5,249	5,279	5,307	5,328	5,354	5,381	5,419	5,460	5,506	5,554
Other Use	67	69	70	71	72	72	73	74	74	75	75
Ending Stocks	463	467	467	469	470	472	472	473	474	475	475
Domestic Use	5,930	5,785	5,815	5,846	5,870	5,898	5,927	5,966	6,009	6,056	6,105
Net Trade	445	350	463	505	531	557	587	614	639	664	692
Sunflower Meal
Production	2,247	2,184	2,196	2,208	2,217	2,228	2,239	2,255	2,272	2,291	2,311
Beginning Stocks	5	20	21	22	23	23	24	24	25	25	25
Domestic Supply	2,252	2,204	2,218	2,230	2,240	2,251	2,263	2,279	2,297	2,316	2,336
Consumption	612	637	640	661	672	682	689	695	703	710	719
Ending Stocks	20	21	22	23	23	24	24	25	25	25	25
Domestic Use	632	658	662	684	696	706	713	720	728	735	744
Net Trade	1,620	1,546	1,555	1,546	1,544	1,545	1,550	1,559	1,569	1,581	1,592
Sunflower Oil
Production	2,285	2,221	2,234	2,245	2,255	2,265	2,277	2,293	2,310	2,330	2,350
Beginning Stocks	42	246	246	244	243	243	243	243	242	241	241
Domestic Supply	2,327	2,467	2,480	2,489	2,498	2,508	2,520	2,536	2,553	2,571	2,591
Consumption	501	423	426	436	445	454	461	467	473	479	486
Ending Stocks	246	246	244	243	243	243	243	242	241	241	240
Domestic Use	747	669	670	679	688	697	704	709	715	720	726
Net Trade	1,580	1,798	1,810	1,810	1,810	1,812	1,816	1,827	1,838	1,851	1,865

262 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook

Rest-of-World Sunflower Sector Supply and Utilization

	08/09	09/10	10/11	11/12	12/13	13/14	14/15	15/16	16/17	17/18	18/19

Sunflower Seed					(Thousand Hectares)
Area Harvested	5,552	5,354	5,351	5,421	5,436	5,455	5,478	5,507	5,538	5,573	5,604
					(Metric Tons per Hectare)
Yield	0.98	0.98	0.99	0.99	1.00	1.01	1.01	1.02	1.02	1.03	1.04
					(Thousand Metric Tons)
Production	5,423	5,262	5,291	5,393	5,440	5,492	5,548	5,611	5,675	5,744	5,810
Beginning Stocks	218	445	457	456	459	462	464	465	468	471	474
Domestic Supply	5,641	5,706	5,749	5,848	5,899	5,953	6,012	6,076	6,143	6,215	6,284
Crush	5,168	5,199	5,513	5,641	5,743	5,842	5,934	6,024	6,113	6,200	6,285
Other Use	457	467	470	485	495	505	514	525	536	548	560
Ending Stocks	445	457	456	459	462	464	465	468	471	474	477
Domestic Use	6,069	6,123	6,439	6,584	6,700	6,811	6,913	7,017	7,120	7,222	7,322
Net Trade	-428	-417	-690	-736	-801	-857	-902	-940	-977	-1,007	-1,038
Sunflower Meal
Production	2,202	2,215	2,349	2,403	2,447	2,489	2,528	2,566	2,604	2,641	2,678
Beginning Stocks	11	11	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13
Domestic Supply	2,213	2,226	2,360	2,415	2,459	2,501	2,540	2,579	2,617	2,654	2,690
Consumption	3,556	3,522	3,593	3,687	3,758	3,831	3,892	3,958	4,024	4,088	4,150
Ending Stocks	11	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	13
Domestic Use	3,567	3,534	3,605	3,700	3,770	3,843	3,904	3,971	4,036	4,101	4,163
Net Trade	-1,354	-1,308	-1,245	-1,285	-1,312	-1,342	-1,364	-1,392	-1,420	-1,447	-1,472
Sunflower Oil
Production	2,055	2,067	2,192	2,243	2,284	2,323	2,360	2,395	2,431	2,465	2,499
Beginning Stocks	116	151	151	150	149	149	149	149	150	150	150
Domestic Supply	2,171	2,218	2,343	2,392	2,433	2,472	2,509	2,545	2,581	2,615	2,650
Consumption	3,675	3,850	3,944	4,040	4,129	4,218	4,306	4,397	4,490	4,586	4,680
Ending Stocks	151	151	150	149	149	149	149	150	150	150	151
Domestic Use	3,826	4,001	4,093	4,189	4,278	4,367	4,455	4,547	4,640	4,736	4,831
Net Trade	-1,655	-1,783	-1,750	-1,797	-1,845	-1,895	-1,946	-2,002	-2,060	-2,121	-2,181

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook / 263

World Palm Oil and Palm Kernel Products

The global economic slowdown and high carryover pull the world palm oil price down 40% from the record high in 2007/08. Over the remaining projection period, the palm oil price recovers along with the other vegetable oil prices and hits $931 per mt by 2018/19. Despite a 46% price increase over the outlook period, palm oil remains the lowest-cost and most traded oil compared with other vegetable oils.

Malaysia and Indonesia are the major producers of palm oil and related products, together accounting for about 88% of total world palm oil production. Indonesia maintains its leading position in world palm oil production. Driven by the ﬁrming world price, Indonesia’s palm kernel harvested area increases by 28%, raising its production to 28.1 mmt over the baseline. Its net exports increase more than 53%, reaching 22.3 mmt by 2018/19. Malaysia has less potential in area expansion, so yield improvement is the key factor for the country’s production growth. Its palm oil production increases to 23 mmt in 2018/19 and net exports reach 18.2 mmt. Although both countries have ambitious plans for promoting their biodiesel industries, the increasing palm oil price and competition from other countries slows the development of this emerging sector.

Although world exports are dominated by two countries, importers are diverse. Major importers of palm oil include China, India, and the EU. China, the leading palm oil consumer, depends heavily on imports to meet its demand, as it does not produce large quantities of the vegetable oil. Its palm oil net imports increase by 60% over the decade, reaching 9.1 mmt by 2018/19. Palm oil used for food consumption accounts for 60% of China’s total palm oil net imports over the outlook period. China’s per capita food use consumption increases by 28% over the period, reaching 3.63 kg by 2018/19. Industrial use for palm oil rises by 92% over the decade, as demand for processed food skyrockets in China.

In 2008/09, India consumes 4.9 mmt of palm oil, primarily supported by imports. Population and income growth causes palm oil consumption in India to expand, driving imports up to 6.7 mmt by 2018/19. Per capita

consumption increases 2.1% annually, reaching 5.1 kg by the end of the outlook. The EU also depends on imports to maintain its palm oil consumption, which grows about 20% over the projection period. Because rapeseed oil, the major vegetable oil in the EU, is primarily used for biodiesel production, the low-cost palm oil becomes a preferred substitute for other industrial uses. Palm oil net imports in the ROW expand to 19.8 mmt by 2018/19 and are primarily used for food consumption.

World palm kernel oil production expands 38%, and net trade reaches 2.8 mmt over the baseline. Indonesia is by far the largest net exporter by 2018/19, supplying almost 84% of world net exports. Malaysia supplies the

remainder. The EU, accounting for more than 25% of world net imports, maintains its position as the dominant net importer of palm kernel oil. However, that position is challenged by China by the end of the outlook.

The EU is also the leading importer of world palm kernel meal, accounting for 56% of world imports in 2008/09. However, the share of EU net imports declines to 48% over the projection period, although the level of net imports increases 19%. Because of the lower price, net imports of palm kernel meal in the ROW are expected to reach 3.0 mmt over the baseline.

264 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook

Palm Sector Trade

	08/09	09/10	10/11	11/12	12/13	13/14	14/15	15/16	16/17	17/18	18/19
Palm Oil
Net Exporters					(Thousand Metric Tons)
Malaysia	13,860	14,338	14,695	15,054	15,428	15,851	16,286	16,745	17,233	17,735	18,245
Indonesia	14,580	15,734	16,453	17,141	17,812	18,501	19,207	19,937	20,697	21,479	22,279
Total Net Exports *	28,440	30,072	31,148	32,195	33,240	34,352	35,492	36,682	37,930	39,215	40,523
Net Importers
China	5,700	6,080	6,327	6,602	6,887	7,201	7,533	7,891	8,274	8,681	9,107
European Union	3,810	3,818	3,895	3,957	4,024	4,099	4,173	4,247	4,325	4,403	4,487
India	4,895	5,112	5,273	5,451	5,618	5,793	5,972	6,157	6,349	6,537	6,728
Rest of World	13,610	14,636	15,229	15,759	16,287	16,834	17,390	17,962	18,557	19,169	19,776
Residual	425	425	425	425	425	425	425	425	425	425	425
Total Net Imports	28,440	30,072	31,148	32,195	33,240	34,352	35,492	36,682	37,930	39,215	40,523
Palm Kernel Meal
Net Exporters
Indonesia	2,232	2,331	2,443	2,543	2,639	2,734	2,831	2,928	3,027	3,129	3,234
Malaysia	2,115	2,170	2,208	2,243	2,282	2,325	2,370	2,417	2,465	2,516	2,566
Total Net Exports *	4,392	4,546	4,696	4,831	4,966	5,104	5,245	5,390	5,538	5,689	5,845
Net Importers
European Union	2,450	2,517	2,541	2,566	2,600	2,636	2,675	2,714	2,756	2,801	2,848
Rest of World	1,942	2,030	2,154	2,264	2,366	2,468	2,571	2,675	2,781	2,889	2,997
Residual	-45	-45	-45	-45	-45	-45	-45	-45	-45	-45	-45
Total Net Imports	4,392	4,546	4,696	4,831	4,966	5,104	5,245	5,390	5,538	5,689	5,845
Palm Kernel Oil
Net Exporters
Indonesia	1,532	1,631	1,725	1,809	1,889	1,968	2,042	2,119	2,198	2,280	2,362
Malaysia	530	591	584	564	542	525	509	491	479	466	455
Total Net Exports *	2,062	2,221	2,309	2,373	2,431	2,493	2,551	2,610	2,677	2,746	2,817
Net Importers
China	380	431	452	475	499	523	547	573	601	631	660
European Union	615	619	632	640	646	655	661	669	677	687	696
Rest of World	689	793	847	880	908	937	964	989	1,020	1,051	1,083
Residual	378	378	378	378	378	378	378	378	378	378	378
Total Net Imports	2,062	2,221	2,309	2,373	2,431	2,493	2,551	2,610	2,677	2,746	2,817
CIF Rotterdam Prices					(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)
Palm Oil	639	659	706	743	772	800	826	852	879	905	931

* Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports.

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