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FAPRI 2009

U.S. AND WORLD AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK

January 2009

FAPRI Staff Report 09-FSR 1

ISSN 1534-4533

Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute

Iowa State University

University of Missouri-Columbia

Ames, Iowa

U.S.A.

Iowa State University	University of Missouri-Columbia
Miguel Carriquiry	Julian Binﬁeld
Fengxia Dong	D. Scott Brown
Xiaodong Du	Scott Gerlt
Amani Elobeid	Daniel Madison
Jacinto Fabiosa	Seth Meyer
Chad Hart	William H. Meyers
Dermot J. Hayes	Wyatt Thompson
Karen Kovarik	Patrick Westhoff
Simla Tokgoz	Lori Wilcox
Eric Wailes (University of Arkansas)	Abner W. Womack
Ed Chavez (University of Arkansas)

Published by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, Iowa State University and the University of Missouri-Columbia, 2009.

Material in this publication is based upon work supported by the Cooperative State Research Education and Extension Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, under Agreement No. 2008-34149-19141.

Any opinions, ﬁndings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reﬂect the view of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Permission is granted to reproduce this information with appropriate attribution to the authors and the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute.

Iowa State University does not discriminate on the basis of race, color, age, religion, national origin, sexual orientation, gender identity, sex, marital status, disability, or status as a U.S. Veteran. Inquiries can be directed to the Director of Equal Opportunity and Diversity, 3680 Beardshear Hall, 515-294-7612.

Contents
Figures List............................................................................................................................	iv
Tables List .............................................................................................................................	vi
Abbreviations and Acronyms................................................................................................	xv
Marketing Year Deﬁnitions ..................................................................................................	xvi
Executive Summary ...............................................................................................................	1
Overview of the 2009 U.S. and World Outlook.....................................................................	3
Charts and Price Projections .................................................................................................	13
Baseline Assumptions ...........................................................................................................	49
World Macroeconomic Assumptions................................................................................	50
U.S. Program Provisions...................................................................................................	56
World Agricultural Policy Assumptions ...........................................................................	58
U.S. Crops .............................................................................................................................	69
U.S. Wheat........................................................................................................................	70
U.S. Rice...........................................................................................................................	72
U.S. Corn ..........................................................................................................................	76
U.S. Ethanol and Biofuel Policy Provisions.....................................................................	78
U.S. Corn Products ...........................................................................................................	80
U.S. Corn Processing........................................................................................................	82
U.S. Sorghum....................................................................................................................	84
U.S. Barley........................................................................................................................	86
U.S. Oats...........................................................................................................................	88
U.S. Hay............................................................................................................................	90
U.S. Soybeans and Soybean Products ..............................................................................	92
U.S. Biodiesel ...................................................................................................................	96
U.S. Sunﬂower Seed and Sunﬂower Seed Products .........................................................	98
U.S. Canola Seed and Canola Seed Products .................................................................	102
U.S. Peanuts and Peanut Products ..................................................................................	105
U.S. Upland Cotton and Cottonseed Products................................................................	108
U.S. Sugar.......................................................................................................................	112
U.S. Livestock and Dairy ....................................................................................................	115
U.S. Beef.........................................................................................................................	116
U.S. Pork.........................................................................................................................	118
U.S. Poultry.....................................................................................................................	120
U.S. Dairy .......................................................................................................................	124
U.S. State-Level Dairy Supply .......................................................................................	126
U.S. Dairy Products ........................................................................................................	130
U.S. Aggregate Measures....................................................................................................	133
U.S. Land Use.................................................................................................................	134
U.S. Food Prices and Expenditures ................................................................................	136

U.S. Government Costs ..................................................................................................	138
U.S. Cash Receipts from Farm Marketings ....................................................................	140
U.S. Farm Production Expenses .....................................................................................	142
U.S. Prices Paid by Farmers ...........................................................................................	144
U.S. Net Farm Income ....................................................................................................	146
U.S. Crop Insurance........................................................................................................	148
World Wheat........................................................................................................................	151
World Rice...........................................................................................................................	165
World Coarse Grains ...........................................................................................................	181
World Oilseeds and Products ..............................................................................................	219
World Soybeans and Soybean Products..........................................................................	220
World Rapeseed and Rapeseed Products ........................................................................	238
World Sunﬂower Seed and Sunﬂower Seed Products ....................................................	252
World Palm Oil and Palm Kernel Products ....................................................................	263
World Peanuts and Peanut Products ...............................................................................	270
World Cotton .......................................................................................................................	283
World Sugar.........................................................................................................................	295
World Biofuels ....................................................................................................................	315
World Ethanol .................................................................................................................	316
World Biodiesel ..............................................................................................................	317
World Meat..........................................................................................................................	323
World Beef and Veal .......................................................................................................	324
World Pork......................................................................................................................	326
World Poultry..................................................................................................................	328
World Dairy Products..........................................................................................................	359
World Butter and Cheese ................................................................................................	360
World Milk Powder.........................................................................................................	363
Figures
Average Annual GDP Growth, 2008-2018............................................................................	14
Average Annual Exchange Rate Growth, 2008-2018 ...........................................................	14
U.S. Biofuel Use Mandates...................................................................................................	15
U.S. Conservation Reserve Program Area ............................................................................	15

U.S. Crop Planted Area .........................................................................................................	16
U.S. Crop Exports .................................................................................................................	16
U.S. Crop Prices....................................................................................................................	17
U.S. Feed and Residual Disappearance.................................................................................	17
U.S. Biofuel Production ........................................................................................................	18
U.S. Farm-Level Prices Paid Indices ....................................................................................	18
U.S. Cattle and Barrow and Gilt Prices.................................................................................	19
U.S. Poultry Wholesale Prices ..............................................................................................	19
U.S. Livestock Production ....................................................................................................	20
U.S. Meat Net Exports ..........................................................................................................	20
U.S. Milk Production ............................................................................................................	21
U.S. Milk Prices ....................................................................................................................	21
U.S. Land Use .......................................................................................................................	22
Mandatory U.S. Government Outlays, Fiscal Year...............................................................	22
U.S. Farm Income .................................................................................................................	23
U.S. Consumer Price Index for Food ....................................................................................	23
World Wheat Stocks-to-Use Ratio Versus Price ...................................................................	24
World Wheat Net Trade and U.S. Market Share ...................................................................	24
World Rice Stocks-to-Use Ratio Versus Price ......................................................................	25
World Rice Net Exports .......................................................................................................	25
World Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .........................................................................	26
World Corn Stocks-to-Use Ratio Versus Price......................................................................	26
World Corn Net Trade and U.S. Market Share .....................................................................	27
World Barley and Sorghum Net Trade and Prices ................................................................	27
World Soybean Area Harvested and Price ............................................................................	28
World Soybean Net Trade .....................................................................................................	28
World Soybean Crush ...........................................................................................................	29
World Soybean Meal Net Trade ...........................................................................................	29
World Soybean Oil Net Trade ...............................................................................................	30
Soybean Oil Per Capita Consumption in Selected Countries ...............................................	30
World Rapeseed Area Harvested and Price...........................................................................	31
World Rapeseed Net Trade....................................................................................................	31
World Rapeseed Meal Net Trade ..........................................................................................	32
World Rapeseed Oil Net Trade..............................................................................................	32
World Sunﬂower Area Harvested and Price..........................................................................	33
World Sunﬂower Net Trade...................................................................................................	33

World Sunﬂower Meal Net Trade .........................................................................................	34
World Sunﬂower Oil Net Trade ............................................................................................	34
World Palm Oil Net Trade and Price.....................................................................................	35
World Peanut Area Harvested and Price ...............................................................................	35
World Cotton Consumption ..................................................................................................	36
World Cotton Stocks-to-Use Ratio Versus Price...................................................................	36
Major Sugar Net Exporters and World Raw Sugar Price......................................................	37
Major Sugar Net Importers ...................................................................................................	37
World Ethanol Price and Net Trade.......................................................................................	38
World Biodiesel Price and Net Trade....................................................................................	38
World Meat Production and Trade ........................................................................................	39
Per Capita Meat Consumption .............................................................................................	39
Major Beef Importing Countries ..........................................................................................	40
Beef Export Market Share ....................................................................................................	40
Major Pork Importing Countries...........................................................................................	41
Pork Export Market Share.....................................................................................................	41
Major Broiler Importing Countries .......................................................................................	42
Broiler Export Market Share.................................................................................................	42
Butter Net Exports for Selected Countries ...........................................................................	43
Cheese Net Exports for Selected Countries ..........................................................................	43
NFD Trade for Selected Countries .......................................................................................	44
WMP Trade for Selected Countries.......................................................................................	44
Tables
Commodity Price Projections ...............................................................................................	45
Real GDP Growth Projections ..............................................................................................	51
GDP Deﬂator Growth Projections.........................................................................................	52
Exchange Rate Growth Projections ......................................................................................	53
Population Growth Projections .............................................................................................	54
U.S. Program Provisions .......................................................................................................	57
Agricultural Policy Assumptions for Crops ..........................................................................	59
Agricultural Policy Assumptions for Biofuels ......................................................................	63
Agricultural Policy Assumptions for Livestock and Dairy Products ....................................	64
Other Agricultural Policy Assumptions ................................................................................	68
U.S. Wheat Supply and Utilization .......................................................................................	71
U.S. Rice Supply and Utilization ..........................................................................................	73

vii

U.S. Long-Grain Rice Supply and Utilization ......................................................................	74
U.S. Mediumand Short-Grain Rice Supply and Utilization ...............................................	75
U.S. Corn Supply and Utilization .........................................................................................	77
U.S. Ethanol Supply and Utilization .....................................................................................	79
U.S. Biofuel Policy Provisions..............................................................................................	79
U.S. Corn Products Supply and Utilization ..........................................................................	81
U.S. Corn Processing ............................................................................................................	83
U.S. Sorghum Supply and Utilization...................................................................................	85
U.S. Barley Supply and Utilization.......................................................................................	87
U.S. Oat Supply and Utilization............................................................................................	89
U.S. Hay Supply and Utilization...........................................................................................	91
U.S. Soybean Supply and Utilization....................................................................................	93
U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Utilization ..........................................................................	94
U.S. Soybean Oil Supply and Utilization..............................................................................	95
U.S. Biodiesel Sector ............................................................................................................	97
U.S. Vegetable Oil Consumption ..........................................................................................	97
U.S. Sunﬂower Seed Supply and Utilization ........................................................................	99
U.S. Sunﬂower Meal Supply and Utilization......................................................................	100
U.S. Sunﬂower Oil Supply and Utilization.........................................................................	101
U.S. Canola Seed Supply and Utilization ...........................................................................	103
U.S. Canola Meal Supply and Utilization...........................................................................	104
U.S. Canola Oil Supply and Utilization ..............................................................................	104
U.S. Peanut Supply and Utilization.....................................................................................	106
U.S. Peanut Meal Supply and Utilization ...........................................................................	107
U.S. Peanut Oil Supply and Utilization ..............................................................................	107
U.S. Upland Cotton Supply and Utilization........................................................................	109
U.S. Cottonseed Supply and Utilization .............................................................................	110
U.S. Cottonseed Meal Supply and Utilization ....................................................................	111
U.S. Cottonseed Oil Supply and Utilization .......................................................................	111
U.S. Sugar Crop Production................................................................................................	113
U.S. Sugar Supply and Utilization ......................................................................................	113
U.S. Beef Supply and Utilization........................................................................................	117
U.S. Pork Supply and Utilization........................................................................................	119
U.S. Broiler Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................	121
U.S. Turkey Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................	122
U.S. Egg Supply and Utilization .........................................................................................	123
U.S. Milk Component Supply and Utilization ....................................................................	125
U.S. Dairy Cows by State ...................................................................................................	127
U.S. Milk Production by State ............................................................................................	128
U.S. All-Milk Prices by State..............................................................................................	129
U.S. Dairy Product Supply and Utilization.........................................................................	131
U.S. Land Use for Major Crops ..........................................................................................	135
U.S. Consumer Price Indexes for Food...............................................................................	137

viii

U.S. Per Capita Consumer Expenditures for Food .............................................................	137
U.S. Net Government Outlays ............................................................................................	139
U.S. Cash Receipts from Farming.......................................................................................	141
U.S. Farm Production Expenses..........................................................................................	143
U.S. Indices of Prices Paid by Farmers...............................................................................	145
U.S. Indices of Prices Paid by Farmers (percent change) ...................................................	145
U.S. Farm Income Statistics................................................................................................	147
U.S. Crop Insurance ............................................................................................................	149
Wheat Trade ........................................................................................................................	153
World Wheat Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................	154
U.S. Wheat Supply and Utilization .....................................................................................	154
Algerian Wheat Supply and Utilization ..............................................................................	155
Argentine Wheat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................	155
Australian Wheat Supply and Utilization............................................................................	155
Brazilian Wheat Supply and Utilization..............................................................................	156
Canadian Wheat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................	156
Chinese Wheat Supply and Utilization ...............................................................................	157
Egyptian Wheat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................	157
European Union Wheat Supply and Utilization .................................................................	157
Indian Wheat Supply and Utilization .................................................................................	158
Iranian Wheat Supply and Utilization ................................................................................	158
Japanese Wheat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................	158
Mexican Wheat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................	159
Moroccan Wheat Supply and Utilization ...........................................................................	159
Other African/Middle Eastern Wheat Supply and Utilization ...........................................	159
Other Asian Wheat Supply and Utilization ........................................................................	160
Other CIS Wheat Supply and Utilization............................................................................	160
Other Eastern European Wheat Supply and Utilization .....................................................	160
Other Latin American Wheat Supply and Utilization ........................................................	161
Pakistani Wheat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................	161
Russian Wheat Supply and Utilization ...............................................................................	161
South Korean Wheat Supply and Utilization .....................................................................	162
Taiwanese Wheat Supply and Utilization ..........................................................................	162
Tunisian Wheat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................	162
Ukrainian Wheat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................	163
Rest-of-World Wheat Supply and Utilization ....................................................................	163
Per Capita Wheat Consumption of Selected Countries.......................................................	164
Rice Trade ...........................................................................................................................	167
World Rice Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................	168
U.S. Rice Supply and Utilization .......................................................................................	168
Argentine Rice Supply and Utilization ..............................................................................	169
Australian Rice Supply and Utilization ..............................................................................	169
Bangladeshi Rice Supply and Utilization ..........................................................................	169

Brazilian Rice Supply and Utilization ................................................................................	170
Canadian Rice Supply and Utilization ...............................................................................	170
Chinese Rice Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................	170
Egyptian Rice Supply and Utilization ................................................................................	171
European Union Rice Supply and Utilization ....................................................................	171
Chinese - Hong Kong Rice Supply and Utilization ...........................................................	171
Indian Rice Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................	172
Indonesian Rice Supply and Utilization .............................................................................	172
Iranian Rice Supply and Utilization ...................................................................................	172
Iraqi Rice Supply and Utilization .......................................................................................	173
Ivory Coast Rice Supply and Utilization ...........................................................................	173
Japanese Rice Supply and Utilization ................................................................................	173
Malaysian Rice Supply and Utilization ..............................................................................	174
Mexican Rice Supply and Utilization ................................................................................	174
Myanmarian Rice Supply and Utilization ..........................................................................	174
Nigerian Rice Supply and Utilization ................................................................................	175
Pakistani Rice Supply and Utilization ................................................................................	175
Philippine Rice Supply and Utilization ..............................................................................	175
Saudi Arabian Rice Supply and Utilization .......................................................................	176
South African Rice Supply and Utilization ........................................................................	176
South Korean Rice Supply and Utilization ........................................................................	176
Taiwanese Rice Supply and Utilization .............................................................................	177
Thai Rice Supply and Utilization .......................................................................................	177
Turkish Rice Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................	177
Uruguayan Rice Supply and Utilization ............................................................................	178
Vietnamese Rice Supply and Utilization ............................................................................	178
Rest-of-World Rice Supply and Utilization .......................................................................	178
Per Capita Rice Consumption of Selected Countries..........................................................	179
Corn Trade...........................................................................................................................	183
Barley Trade ........................................................................................................................	184
Sorghum Trade ....................................................................................................................	185
World Corn Supply and Utilization.....................................................................................	186
World Barley Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................	186
World Sorghum Supply and Utilization ..............................................................................	187
U.S. Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ..........................................................................	188
Algerian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ...................................................................	190
Argentine Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .................................................................	191
Australian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization.................................................................	192
Brazilian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...................................................................	193
Canadian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ..................................................................	194
Chinese Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ....................................................................	195
Egyptian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...................................................................	195
European Union Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .......................................................	196
Indian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .......................................................................	197

Indonesian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization................................................................	197
Israeli Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .......................................................................	198
Japanese Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ...................................................................	199
Malaysian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization.................................................................	199
Mexican Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ...................................................................	200
Nigerian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ...................................................................	201
Other African Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ...........................................................	201
Other Asian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ..............................................................	202
Other Eastern European Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...........................................	203
Other CIS Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .................................................................	204
Other Latin American Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ..............................................	205
Other Middle Eastern Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...............................................	206
Pakistani Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...................................................................	207
Philippine Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization.................................................................	208
Russian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization.....................................................................	208
Saudi Arabian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...........................................................	209
South African Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ...........................................................	210
South Korean Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ...........................................................	211
Taiwanese Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization.................................................................	211
Thai Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ..........................................................................	212
Ukrainian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .................................................................	212
Vietnamese Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization...............................................................	213
Rest-of-World Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ..........................................................	214
Per Capita Grain Consumption of Selected Countries .......................................................	215
Soybean Trade.....................................................................................................................	221
Soybean Meal Trade............................................................................................................	222
Soybean Oil Trade...............................................................................................................	222
World Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization....................................................................	223
U.S. Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ......................................................................	224
Argentine Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization..............................................................	225
Brazilian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization...............................................................	226
Canadian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ..............................................................	227
Chinese Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization.................................................................	228
European Union Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ...................................................	229
Indian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ...................................................................	230
Japanese Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ...............................................................	231
Mexican Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization................................................................	232
Other CIS Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization .............................................................	233
Paraguyan Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization.............................................................	234
South Korean Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization .......................................................	235
Taiwanese Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization.............................................................	236
Rest-of-World Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization.......................................................	237
Rapeseed Trade ...................................................................................................................	239
Rapeseed Meal Trade ..........................................................................................................	239

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