OutlookPub2009

Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook / 145

U.S. Indices of Prices Paid by Farmers

* Interest per acre on farm real estate debt and interest rate on farm non-real estate debt.

† Farm real estate taxes payable per acre.

U.S. Indices of Prices Paid by Farmers (percent change)

* Interest per acre on farm real estate debt and interest rate on farm non-real estate debt.

† Farm real estate taxes payable per acre.

146 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Net Farm Income

Based on preliminary USDA estimates, nominal net farm income reached record levels in 2008. A sharp increase in crop receipts and a modest increase in livestock receipts more than offset the effects of a sharp increase in production costs.

In 2009, net farm income is expected to decline by almost $18 billion. Lower farm commodity prices result in sharp reductions in both crop and livestock receipts. The decline in net farm income is moderated by a reduction in farm production expenses.

Net farm income begins to recover in 2010 as livestock and dairy receipts again increase. Nominal net farm income again reaches record levels in 2013, but inflation-corrected real net farm income does not reach the 2008 level until 2018.

Government payments are a smaller share of gross and net farm income than they were in 2005 and 2006. Payments increase in 2010 when the first payments under the ACRE program are issued.

Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook / 147

U.S. Farm Income Statistics

* Income from machine hire, custom work, sales of forest products, and other miscellaneous cash sources.

† Excludes capital consumption, perquisites to hired labor, and farm household expenses.

‡ Deflated by the GNP price deflator, 1997=1.

148 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Crop Insurance

Crop insurance continues to expand. The number of net acres insured increased to 272.36 million acres in 2008. More crops and areas are being covered by crop insurance and the expansion is expected to continue through 2009 and beyond.

Total premiums increased to $9.86 billion in 2008, roughly a 50% jump from 2007. The significantly higher crop prices experienced in 2008 propped up insurance prices, premiums, and liabilities. The continuation of rela-tively higher crop prices over the projection period will likely keep total premium levels in the $8 billion to $10 billion range.

Premium subsidies rose to $5.69 billion in 2008. As with premiums, the higher crop prices coincide with higher premium subsidy levels. For 2009, premium subsidies are projected to decline to $4.79 billion, mainly because of lower insurance prices for 2009. Over the projection period, premium subsidies are expected to maintain at around $5 billion per year.

Despite the planting and harvesting issues producers faced in 2008, the 2008 crop year marked the sixth year in a row in which premiums exceeded indemnities. Over the projection period, total indemnities follow a pattern

similar to that of total premiums. Loss ratios of one indicate that “actuarially fair” premiums are being charged for the insurance products. These projections show that, overall, federal crop insurance will meet the loss ratio targets set by Congress.

Total obligations represent the federal government’s financial responsibility to crop insurance. They are the costs for crop insurance before considering any crop insurance revenues. Total obligations are equal to the sum of indemnities, delivery expenses, administrative and operating expenses, agent commissions, and other expenses. Total obligations for FY 2009 are projected to reach nearly $10 billion.

Net outlays take underwriting costs and crop insurance revenues into account. Net outlays are estimated at $7 billion for FY 2009. Outlays are expected to rise until 2012 when the crop insurance premium timing is shifted forward, as required by the 2008 farm bill.

Budget authority is the amount the law allows the federal government to spend on a program. For crop insurance, it represents net outlays on a crop-year basis. Budget authority for FY 2009 is projected at $7 billion. Budget authority projections follow a pattern similar to that of net outlays.

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U.S. Crop Insurance

WORLD WHEAT

152 / World Wheat: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook

World Wheat

The world wheat price is lower in 2008/09, at $289.20 per mt. It is projected to decrease to $224.90 per mt in 2009/10 because of high carryover stocks that increase the supply. The average annual growth rate of the wheat price is -1% over the next 10 years when the price drops sharply in 2009/10 but than increases in every year between 2010/11 and 2018/19. The stocks-to-use ratio is higher, at 22.7%, in 2008/09. It is projected to increase to 23.9% by 2018/19.

Wheat area was larger in 2008/09 because of increases in U.S., Australian, Canadian, and EU wheat area. Wheat area is projected to increase further, by 1.2 mha in 2009/10, for a total of 225.2 mha. Production decreases to 672.1 mmt in 2009/10 despite an area increase because of a return to average yields. Production reaches 715.5 mmt by 2018/19. Consumption grows 0.9% annually on average, reaching 714.4 mmt in 2018/19.

World wheat net trade increases in 2008/09 because of a higher supply of wheat in some of the major exporting countries. It increases to 99.4 mmt in 2009/10 because of an increase in supply, which decreases the wheat price. Net trade grows 1.8% annually on average, reaching 118.6 mmt in 2018/19.

Record yields and higher area increased EU wheat production and net exports in 2008/09. Production is projected to decline in 2009/10 with a return to average yields. Food and industrial use reaches 75.2 mmt in 2018/19, while feed use reaches 60.3 mmt by 2018/19. Net exports reach 15 mmt by the end of the projection period.

In Argentina, both area and yields are projected to increase in 2009/10, thus increasing production to 14.6 mmt. In the longer term, production growth comes from both area and yield growth. Production reaches 17.3 mmt in 2018/19. Aided by the production growth and a modest consumption increase, Argentine net exports reach 11.3 mmt in 2018/19.

Canadian wheat production reaches only 25.2 mmt in 2018/19 because of a decline in wheat area despite yield growth. Consumption reaches 9.6 mmt in 2018/19, driven by growth in feed use and demand by the ethanol sector. Net exports reach 15.5 mmt by 2018/19.

Increases in area and yields push Australian production up to 22.6 mmt in 2009/10 and to 25.5 mmt in 2018/19. Production grows more than consumption, and net exports reach 17.7 mmt in 2018/19.

Wheat net imports in Asia increase by 5 mmt over the next 10 years. China remains a small net exporter of wheat, with net exports of 0.9 mmt in 2018/19. Japan’s net imports reach 5.3 mmt in 2018/19, while Pakistan’s reach 1.3 mmt. India becomes a small net exporter of wheat in 2008/09 and is projected to remain a net exporter over the decade.

Wheat production in Brazil increased in 2008/09 to 5.8 mmt because of an increase in yields and area. Production is projected to decrease to 5.3 mmt in 2009/10 and to stay relatively stable. Consumption grows 1.1% annually on average, reaching 12 mmt in 2018/19. Brazil’s wheat net imports reach 6.7 mmt in 2018/19. Mexican wheat net imports increase in 2009/10 with the decline in production and increase in consumption. Net imports reach 3.9 mmt in 2018/19. Rising per capita consumption, combined with population growth, is the main source of the demand increase.

Population growth drives the increase in consumption and net imports in African and Middle Eastern countries, as their per capita consumption is projected to decline over the next 10 years. Their wheat net imports reach 59 mmt in 2018/19. Egypt’s net imports reach 10.3 mmt in 2018/19, driven by an increase in food use. Algerian net imports reach 6.8 mmt in 2018/19.

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Wheat Trade

* Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports.

† Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.

‡ Countries included: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro.