OutlookPub2009
.pdfWorld Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook / 235
South Korean Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization
|
08/09 |
09/10 |
10/11 |
11/12 |
12/13 |
13/14 |
14/15 |
15/16 |
16/17 |
17/18 |
18/19 |
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Soybeans |
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Hectares) |
|
|
|
|
||
Area Harvested |
85 |
77 |
67 |
65 |
65 |
66 |
66 |
66 |
66 |
66 |
54 |
|
|
|
|
|
(Metric Tons per Hectare) |
|
|
|
|
||
Yield |
1.59 |
1.60 |
1.61 |
1.63 |
1.64 |
1.65 |
1.66 |
1.68 |
1.69 |
1.70 |
1.71 |
|
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|
|
(Thousand Metric Tons) |
|
|
|
|
||
Production |
135 |
123 |
108 |
106 |
107 |
108 |
110 |
111 |
112 |
112 |
92 |
Beginning Stocks |
42 |
40 |
68 |
72 |
71 |
72 |
71 |
71 |
72 |
73 |
75 |
Domestic Supply |
177 |
163 |
176 |
178 |
178 |
180 |
181 |
182 |
183 |
185 |
166 |
Crush |
921 |
875 |
887 |
891 |
892 |
899 |
901 |
907 |
918 |
929 |
936 |
Food Use |
425 |
443 |
447 |
446 |
446 |
446 |
446 |
446 |
447 |
449 |
450 |
Feed Use |
51 |
48 |
44 |
43 |
43 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
39 |
Ending Stocks |
40 |
68 |
72 |
71 |
72 |
71 |
71 |
72 |
73 |
75 |
76 |
Domestic Use |
1,437 |
1,434 |
1,449 |
1,452 |
1,453 |
1,460 |
1,462 |
1,469 |
1,482 |
1,496 |
1,501 |
Net Trade |
-1,260 |
-1,272 |
-1,274 |
-1,274 |
-1,275 |
-1,280 |
-1,281 |
-1,287 |
-1,299 |
-1,311 |
-1,335 |
Soybean Meal |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
736 |
699 |
708 |
712 |
713 |
718 |
720 |
725 |
734 |
742 |
748 |
Beginning Stocks |
180 |
180 |
278 |
301 |
309 |
312 |
312 |
313 |
315 |
321 |
326 |
Domestic Supply |
916 |
879 |
986 |
1,013 |
1,021 |
1,030 |
1,032 |
1,038 |
1,049 |
1,063 |
1,074 |
Consumption |
2,586 |
2,864 |
2,886 |
2,891 |
2,906 |
2,933 |
2,953 |
2,967 |
2,981 |
2,989 |
2,998 |
Ending Stocks |
180 |
278 |
301 |
309 |
312 |
312 |
313 |
315 |
321 |
326 |
331 |
Domestic Use |
2,766 |
3,141 |
3,187 |
3,199 |
3,217 |
3,246 |
3,266 |
3,282 |
3,302 |
3,315 |
3,329 |
Net Trade |
-1,850 |
-2,262 |
-2,201 |
-2,186 |
-2,196 |
-2,215 |
-2,234 |
-2,244 |
-2,253 |
-2,253 |
-2,255 |
Soybean Oil |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
171 |
163 |
165 |
165 |
166 |
167 |
167 |
168 |
170 |
172 |
174 |
Beginning Stocks |
30 |
30 |
32 |
32 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
Domestic Supply |
201 |
193 |
197 |
198 |
197 |
198 |
198 |
199 |
202 |
204 |
205 |
Consumption |
476 |
528 |
532 |
526 |
531 |
536 |
543 |
550 |
556 |
563 |
570 |
Ending Stocks |
30 |
32 |
32 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
Domestic Use |
506 |
561 |
564 |
558 |
563 |
567 |
574 |
581 |
587 |
594 |
602 |
Net Trade |
-305 |
-368 |
-367 |
-360 |
-366 |
-369 |
-376 |
-381 |
-385 |
-390 |
-397 |
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236 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook
Taiwanese Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization
|
08/09 |
09/10 |
10/11 |
11/12 |
12/13 |
13/14 |
14/15 |
15/16 |
16/17 |
17/18 |
18/19 |
Soybeans |
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Metric Tons) |
|
|
|
|
||
Production |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Beginning Stocks |
90 |
100 |
116 |
123 |
128 |
131 |
134 |
137 |
141 |
144 |
148 |
Domestic Supply |
90 |
100 |
116 |
123 |
128 |
131 |
134 |
137 |
141 |
144 |
148 |
Crush |
2,075 |
2,079 |
2,097 |
2,113 |
2,134 |
2,157 |
2,179 |
2,200 |
2,222 |
2,244 |
2,266 |
Food Use |
265 |
274 |
279 |
283 |
285 |
287 |
289 |
293 |
296 |
299 |
302 |
Feed Use |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Ending Stocks |
100 |
116 |
123 |
128 |
131 |
134 |
137 |
141 |
144 |
148 |
151 |
Domestic Use |
2,440 |
2,468 |
2,498 |
2,524 |
2,551 |
2,578 |
2,605 |
2,633 |
2,662 |
2,690 |
2,719 |
Net Trade |
-2,350 |
-2,368 |
-2,383 |
-2,402 |
-2,423 |
-2,447 |
-2,471 |
-2,497 |
-2,521 |
-2,546 |
-2,571 |
Soybean Meal |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
Production |
1,637 |
1,640 |
1,654 |
1,667 |
1,684 |
1,702 |
1,719 |
1,735 |
1,753 |
1,770 |
1,787 |
Beginning Stocks |
20 |
20 |
25 |
27 |
29 |
30 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
33 |
34 |
Domestic Supply |
1,657 |
1,660 |
1,679 |
1,695 |
1,713 |
1,732 |
1,750 |
1,767 |
1,785 |
1,803 |
1,821 |
Consumption |
1,640 |
1,751 |
1,815 |
1,874 |
1,903 |
1,934 |
1,958 |
1,986 |
2,011 |
2,038 |
2,062 |
Ending Stocks |
20 |
25 |
27 |
29 |
30 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
33 |
34 |
34 |
Domestic Use |
1,660 |
1,776 |
1,842 |
1,903 |
1,933 |
1,964 |
1,989 |
2,018 |
2,044 |
2,072 |
2,096 |
Net Trade |
-3 |
-116 |
-164 |
-209 |
-220 |
-233 |
-240 |
-251 |
-259 |
-268 |
-275 |
Soybean Oil |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
365 |
366 |
369 |
372 |
375 |
379 |
383 |
387 |
391 |
395 |
399 |
Beginning Stocks |
16 |
18 |
19 |
18 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
Domestic Supply |
381 |
384 |
388 |
389 |
393 |
398 |
402 |
408 |
413 |
418 |
423 |
Consumption |
415 |
422 |
417 |
417 |
423 |
429 |
438 |
447 |
453 |
459 |
466 |
Ending Stocks |
18 |
19 |
18 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
26 |
Domestic Use |
433 |
441 |
435 |
435 |
441 |
448 |
458 |
470 |
476 |
483 |
491 |
Net Trade |
-52 |
-58 |
-47 |
-45 |
-49 |
-51 |
-56 |
-62 |
-63 |
-65 |
-68 |
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World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook / 237
Rest-of-World Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization
|
08/09 |
09/10 |
10/11 |
11/12 |
12/13 |
13/14 |
14/15 |
15/16 |
16/17 |
17/18 |
18/19 |
Soybeans |
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|
(Thousand Hectares) |
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|
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|
||
Area Harvested |
4,430 |
4,565 |
4,715 |
4,852 |
4,985 |
5,119 |
5,249 |
5,380 |
5,509 |
5,637 |
5,764 |
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(Metric Tons per Hectare) |
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Yield |
1.44 |
1.45 |
1.47 |
1.48 |
1.49 |
1.51 |
1.52 |
1.53 |
1.54 |
1.55 |
1.56 |
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(Thousand Metric Tons) |
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||
Production |
6,385 |
6,641 |
6,922 |
7,186 |
7,446 |
7,708 |
7,968 |
8,230 |
8,492 |
8,754 |
9,015 |
Beginning Stocks |
531 |
648 |
673 |
680 |
680 |
681 |
683 |
684 |
688 |
693 |
699 |
Domestic Supply |
6,916 |
7,289 |
7,595 |
7,866 |
8,125 |
8,390 |
8,650 |
8,914 |
9,180 |
9,447 |
9,714 |
Crush |
10,393 |
10,838 |
11,373 |
11,864 |
12,371 |
12,914 |
13,438 |
13,984 |
14,549 |
15,114 |
15,667 |
Food Use |
3,546 |
3,631 |
3,665 |
3,679 |
3,699 |
3,718 |
3,737 |
3,762 |
3,792 |
3,822 |
3,851 |
Feed Use |
2,149 |
2,271 |
2,346 |
2,397 |
2,454 |
2,509 |
2,564 |
2,625 |
2,691 |
2,758 |
2,822 |
Ending Stocks |
648 |
673 |
680 |
680 |
681 |
683 |
684 |
688 |
693 |
699 |
704 |
Domestic Use |
16,736 |
17,412 |
18,064 |
18,619 |
19,206 |
19,823 |
20,424 |
21,058 |
21,725 |
22,393 |
23,044 |
Net Trade |
-9,820 |
-10,124 |
-10,469 |
-10,754 |
-11,081 |
-11,433 |
-11,773 |
-12,144 |
-12,545 |
-12,946 |
-13,330 |
Soybean Meal |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
8,299 |
8,653 |
9,081 |
9,473 |
9,878 |
10,311 |
10,730 |
11,165 |
11,617 |
12,068 |
12,510 |
Beginning Stocks |
426 |
486 |
645 |
722 |
763 |
783 |
794 |
803 |
820 |
847 |
873 |
Domestic Supply |
8,725 |
9,139 |
9,726 |
10,195 |
10,641 |
11,094 |
11,524 |
11,968 |
12,436 |
12,915 |
13,383 |
Consumption |
30,897 |
31,671 |
33,592 |
35,279 |
36,838 |
38,436 |
39,990 |
41,545 |
43,091 |
44,627 |
46,119 |
Ending Stocks |
486 |
645 |
722 |
763 |
783 |
794 |
803 |
820 |
847 |
873 |
898 |
Domestic Use |
31,383 |
32,317 |
34,315 |
36,042 |
37,621 |
39,231 |
40,793 |
42,365 |
43,938 |
45,501 |
47,017 |
Net Trade |
-22,658 |
-23,178 |
-24,588 |
-25,847 |
-26,980 |
-28,136 |
-29,269 |
-30,396 |
-31,501 |
-32,585 |
-33,633 |
Soybean Oil |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
1,848 |
1,927 |
2,022 |
2,109 |
2,199 |
2,296 |
2,389 |
2,486 |
2,586 |
2,687 |
2,785 |
Beginning Stocks |
521 |
567 |
569 |
546 |
523 |
521 |
520 |
524 |
528 |
530 |
534 |
Domestic Supply |
2,369 |
2,494 |
2,591 |
2,655 |
2,722 |
2,817 |
2,909 |
3,010 |
3,114 |
3,217 |
3,319 |
Consumption |
5,982 |
6,075 |
6,181 |
6,248 |
6,361 |
6,478 |
6,606 |
6,735 |
6,866 |
6,999 |
7,131 |
Ending Stocks |
567 |
569 |
546 |
523 |
521 |
520 |
524 |
528 |
530 |
534 |
538 |
Domestic Use |
6,549 |
6,644 |
6,728 |
6,771 |
6,882 |
6,998 |
7,130 |
7,263 |
7,397 |
7,532 |
7,669 |
Net Trade |
-4,410 |
-4,150 |
-4,137 |
-4,116 |
-4,160 |
-4,181 |
-4,221 |
-4,253 |
-4,283 |
-4,315 |
-4,350 |
238 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook
World Rapeseed and Rapeseed Products
The world rapeseed price declines by 28% in 2008/09 because of large supplies and weaker demand. The price is expected to decline again by 10% next season because of stagnant consumption and large carryover. It then remains strong over the rest of the outlook period. The rapeseed meal price declines by 30% in 2008/09 and keeps declining through the middle of the projection period as supply outpaces demand. The rapeseed oil price plunges by 34% from the record high of 2007/08 but recovers throughout the outlook period, encouraged by demand for food and industrial uses. In the outer years of the projection, the rapeseed oil price stays close to that of sunflower oil.
Area expansion in Australia, Canada, the CIS, and Ukraine combined with strong yields boosted world rapeseed production by 16% in 2008/09. By 2018/19, world rapeseed production reaches 65 mmt. The largest producer, the EU, holds 36% of the market, while China possesses a 21% production share over the next decade. World consumption increases 21% by 2018/19 as biodiesel demand in the EU continues to expand. Net exports of rapeseed increase to 11.2 mmt over the baseline, with Canada positioned as the dominant net exporter. Ukraine’s market share increases, reaching 28% by 2018/19.
Canada’s rapeseed harvested area is expected to increase to 6.9 mha, pushing production to 13 mmt by 2018/19. Canada’s rapeseed and derived products are generally export oriented. By 2018/19, Canada’s rapeseed net exports increase to 6.4 mmt while its domestic crush grows by 36%. Canada remains the leading net exporter of rapeseed/canola in the world throughout the projection period, although its market share declines from 77% to 57% between 2007/08 and 2018/19. Canada is also a strong net exporter of rapeseed meal and oil. Over the next decade, Canada’s rapeseed meal net exports reach 2.8 mmt, accounting for 66% of world net exports. Rapeseed oil net exports increase 46% by 2018/19, contributing almost 85% of world net exports.
Ukraine emerges as an important net exporter of rapeseed throughout the baseline. Its production increased by 154%, to 2.8 mmt, in 2008/09 as a result of fast-expanding area (up by 56%) and bumper yields (up by 64%). Because of a lack of crushing facilities, more than 83% of the annual production enters the world market by 2018/19. Net exports more than double, to 3.2 mmt, over the next decade.
Over the outlook period, rapeseed remains the dominant oilseed crop in the EU. Harvested area expanded by 4% in 2008/09 from the large area of the previous season, driven by weaker competition from coarse grains. Total area expands to 7.3 mha by 2018/19. Yield improvements, along with area growth, drive production up to 24 mmt. Because of extensive demand for biodiesel, rapeseed crush is projected to grow on average by 2.1% annually for the remainder of the baseline. Consumption of rapeseed oil continues to grow, driven by biodiesel demand, and reaches 11 mmt by 2018/19. Despite the expansion in rapeseed production and crushing facilities, the demand for rapeseed oil outpaces the rapeseed crush volume. The EU imports increasing quantities of rapeseed oil throughout the baseline period. Net imports reach 1 mmt by 2018/19.
Chinese rapeseed net imports increase 30% in 2008/09 despite a 9% increase in production based on increased harvested area. Net imports increase by 107%, reaching 2.2 mmt, in 2018/19. Domestic crush expands at an average annual rate of 2%. Because of the growing livestock industry, rapeseed meal usage for feed increases by 22% over the outlook period, a demand satisfied mostly through domestic crushing. In contrast to the EU, China’s rapeseed oil consumption is primarily used for food. China’s net imports of rapeseed oil remain relatively low over the next decade.
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook / 239
Rapeseed Trade
|
08/09 |
09/10 |
10/11 |
11/12 |
12/13 |
13/14 |
14/15 |
15/16 |
16/17 |
17/18 |
18/19 |
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|
|
|
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Net Exporters |
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Metric Tons) |
|
|
|
|
||
Australia |
745 |
786 |
793 |
808 |
813 |
818 |
819 |
823 |
828 |
831 |
835 |
Canada |
5,700 |
5,351 |
5,472 |
5,626 |
5,769 |
5,883 |
5,971 |
6,055 |
6,152 |
6,260 |
6,397 |
Other CIS † |
557 |
535 |
573 |
602 |
627 |
652 |
677 |
703 |
731 |
760 |
789 |
Ukraine |
2,247 |
2,523 |
2,703 |
2,834 |
2,928 |
2,998 |
3,049 |
3,088 |
3,120 |
3,146 |
3,169 |
Total Net Exports * |
9,249 |
9,195 |
9,541 |
9,869 |
10,136 |
10,350 |
10,517 |
10,670 |
10,831 |
10,996 |
11,190 |
Net Importers |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
China |
1,049 |
1,021 |
994 |
1,012 |
1,209 |
1,393 |
1,542 |
1,665 |
1,799 |
1,971 |
2,172 |
European Union |
1,450 |
1,221 |
1,520 |
1,752 |
1,723 |
1,674 |
1,624 |
1,589 |
1,554 |
1,486 |
1,421 |
India |
96 |
96 |
96 |
96 |
96 |
96 |
96 |
96 |
96 |
96 |
96 |
Japan |
2,350 |
2,495 |
2,481 |
2,499 |
2,521 |
2,534 |
2,549 |
2,561 |
2,570 |
2,581 |
2,588 |
United States |
493 |
437 |
405 |
393 |
399 |
399 |
396 |
392 |
388 |
386 |
385 |
Rest of World |
3,407 |
3,520 |
3,641 |
3,714 |
3,783 |
3,849 |
3,906 |
3,963 |
4,020 |
4,072 |
4,124 |
Residual |
404 |
404 |
404 |
404 |
404 |
404 |
404 |
404 |
404 |
404 |
404 |
Total Net Imports |
9,249 |
9,195 |
9,541 |
9,869 |
10,136 |
10,350 |
10,517 |
10,670 |
10,831 |
10,996 |
11,190 |
Prices |
|
|
|
|
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) |
|
|
|
|
||
Cash Vancouver |
406 |
369 |
403 |
408 |
408 |
415 |
416 |
418 |
420 |
417 |
416 |
CIF Hamburg |
463 |
420 |
460 |
466 |
466 |
473 |
475 |
477 |
479 |
476 |
475 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
* Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports.
† Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
Rapeseed Meal Trade
|
08/09 |
09/10 |
10/11 |
11/12 |
12/13 |
13/14 |
14/15 |
15/16 |
16/17 |
17/18 |
18/19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
Net Exporters |
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Metric Tons) |
|
|
|
|
||
Canada |
1,997 |
2,222 |
2,247 |
2,304 |
2,376 |
2,460 |
2,545 |
2,617 |
2,671 |
2,735 |
2,796 |
European Union |
120 |
-93 |
-83 |
-8 |
30 |
58 |
59 |
63 |
64 |
37 |
-7 |
India |
800 |
500 |
642 |
719 |
739 |
743 |
769 |
807 |
861 |
916 |
985 |
Other CIS † |
111 |
115 |
120 |
127 |
135 |
143 |
151 |
159 |
166 |
172 |
179 |
Ukraine |
60 |
74 |
89 |
102 |
115 |
129 |
142 |
155 |
167 |
180 |
192 |
Total Net Exports * |
3,092 |
3,196 |
3,248 |
3,294 |
3,435 |
3,569 |
3,703 |
3,842 |
3,980 |
4,099 |
4,211 |
Net Importers |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
China |
100 |
-221 |
-102 |
0 |
36 |
69 |
91 |
128 |
167 |
177 |
173 |
Japan |
33 |
-64 |
-48 |
-42 |
-39 |
-35 |
-37 |
-42 |
-51 |
-58 |
-60 |
United States |
1,912 |
1,864 |
1,859 |
1,884 |
1,918 |
1,940 |
1,969 |
1,992 |
2,016 |
2,045 |
2,076 |
Rest of World |
841 |
1,034 |
1,100 |
1,196 |
1,275 |
1,354 |
1,437 |
1,516 |
1,591 |
1,670 |
1,749 |
Residual |
206 |
206 |
206 |
206 |
206 |
206 |
206 |
206 |
206 |
206 |
206 |
Total Net Imports |
3,092 |
3,196 |
3,248 |
3,294 |
3,435 |
3,569 |
3,703 |
3,842 |
3,980 |
4,099 |
4,211 |
Price |
|
|
|
|
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) |
|
|
|
|
||
FOB Hamburg |
211 |
199 |
193 |
187 |
188 |
191 |
195 |
197 |
198 |
198 |
197 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
* Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports.
† Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
240 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook
Rapeseed Oil Trade
|
08/09 |
09/10 |
10/11 |
11/12 |
12/13 |
13/14 |
14/15 |
15/16 |
16/17 |
17/18 |
18/19 |
Net Exporters |
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Metric Tons) |
|
|
|
|
||
Australia |
42 |
45 |
44 |
44 |
46 |
47 |
49 |
51 |
54 |
56 |
58 |
Canada |
1,410 |
1,630 |
1,660 |
1,708 |
1,761 |
1,821 |
1,881 |
1,930 |
1,968 |
2,011 |
2,054 |
Other CIS † |
55 |
87 |
94 |
102 |
110 |
117 |
125 |
131 |
138 |
145 |
152 |
Ukraine |
60 |
69 |
80 |
90 |
100 |
110 |
119 |
129 |
138 |
147 |
156 |
Total Net Exports * |
1,568 |
1,832 |
1,879 |
1,945 |
2,017 |
2,097 |
2,175 |
2,242 |
2,299 |
2,360 |
2,420 |
Net Importers |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
China |
320 |
171 |
74 |
65 |
75 |
81 |
92 |
105 |
105 |
99 |
75 |
European Union |
60 |
445 |
662 |
711 |
753 |
812 |
851 |
881 |
918 |
950 |
1,004 |
India |
-1 |
-1 |
-1 |
-1 |
-1 |
-1 |
-1 |
-1 |
-1 |
-1 |
-1 |
Japan |
20 |
22 |
24 |
26 |
28 |
30 |
32 |
34 |
36 |
38 |
40 |
United States |
1,013 |
998 |
963 |
984 |
998 |
1,008 |
1,023 |
1,035 |
1,044 |
1,063 |
1,078 |
Rest of World |
35 |
76 |
36 |
38 |
42 |
45 |
56 |
67 |
75 |
90 |
103 |
Residual |
120 |
120 |
120 |
120 |
120 |
120 |
120 |
120 |
120 |
120 |
120 |
Total Net Imports |
1,568 |
1,832 |
1,879 |
1,945 |
2,017 |
2,097 |
2,175 |
2,242 |
2,299 |
2,360 |
2,420 |
Price |
|
|
|
|
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) |
|
|
|
|
||
FOB Hamburg |
927 |
975 |
1,101 |
1,155 |
1,184 |
1,218 |
1,237 |
1,256 |
1,282 |
1,295 |
1,311 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
* Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports.
† Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook / 241
World Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization
|
08/09 |
09/10 |
10/11 |
11/12 |
12/13 |
13/14 |
14/15 |
15/16 |
16/17 |
17/18 |
18/19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
Rapeseed |
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Hectares) |
|
|
|
|
||
Area Harvested |
30,055 |
30,330 |
30,446 |
30,860 |
31,137 |
31,344 |
31,560 |
31,761 |
31,976 |
32,201 |
32,412 |
|
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Metric Tons) |
|
|
|
|
||
Production |
55,965 |
55,762 |
56,620 |
58,014 |
59,231 |
60,285 |
61,333 |
62,340 |
63,363 |
64,411 |
65,434 |
Beginning Stocks |
3,091 |
5,177 |
5,383 |
5,361 |
5,392 |
5,431 |
5,434 |
5,450 |
5,477 |
5,514 |
5,555 |
Domestic Supply |
59,056 |
60,939 |
62,003 |
63,376 |
64,623 |
65,716 |
66,767 |
67,790 |
68,840 |
69,925 |
70,989 |
Crush |
50,446 |
51,909 |
53,280 |
54,741 |
55,905 |
56,933 |
57,916 |
58,864 |
59,834 |
60,832 |
61,850 |
Other Use |
3,029 |
3,243 |
2,957 |
2,839 |
2,883 |
2,945 |
2,997 |
3,044 |
3,088 |
3,134 |
3,147 |
Residual |
404 |
404 |
404 |
404 |
404 |
404 |
404 |
404 |
404 |
404 |
404 |
Ending Stocks |
5,177 |
5,383 |
5,361 |
5,392 |
5,431 |
5,434 |
5,450 |
5,477 |
5,514 |
5,555 |
5,588 |
Domestic Use |
59,056 |
60,939 |
62,003 |
63,376 |
64,623 |
65,716 |
66,767 |
67,790 |
68,840 |
69,925 |
70,989 |
Trade * |
9,249 |
9,195 |
9,541 |
9,869 |
10,136 |
10,350 |
10,517 |
10,670 |
10,831 |
10,996 |
11,190 |
Rapeseed Meal |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
29,964 |
30,851 |
31,660 |
32,524 |
33,211 |
33,817 |
34,398 |
34,958 |
35,531 |
36,122 |
36,727 |
Consumption |
29,712 |
30,628 |
31,441 |
32,309 |
33,001 |
33,610 |
34,191 |
34,750 |
35,321 |
35,913 |
36,517 |
Ending Stocks |
358 |
374 |
387 |
396 |
400 |
401 |
402 |
404 |
408 |
412 |
416 |
Trade * |
3,092 |
3,196 |
3,248 |
3,294 |
3,435 |
3,569 |
3,703 |
3,842 |
3,980 |
4,099 |
4,211 |
Rapeseed Oil |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
19,790 |
20,345 |
20,889 |
21,466 |
21,929 |
22,339 |
22,729 |
23,105 |
23,490 |
23,883 |
24,283 |
Consumption |
19,607 |
20,236 |
20,794 |
21,357 |
21,811 |
22,220 |
22,606 |
22,983 |
23,369 |
23,760 |
24,160 |
Ending Stocks |
494 |
483 |
458 |
447 |
445 |
444 |
446 |
448 |
449 |
452 |
455 |
Trade * |
1,568 |
1,832 |
1,879 |
1,945 |
2,017 |
2,097 |
2,175 |
2,242 |
2,299 |
2,360 |
2,420 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(Kilograms) |
|
|
|
|
|
Per Capita Consumption |
2.89 |
2.95 |
2.99 |
3.04 |
3.07 |
3.09 |
3.11 |
3.13 |
3.15 |
3.17 |
3.19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
* Excludes intraregional trade.
242 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Canola Sector Supply and Utilization
|
08/09 |
09/10 |
10/11 |
11/12 |
12/13 |
13/14 |
14/15 |
15/16 |
16/17 |
17/18 |
18/19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
Canola |
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Hectares) |
|
|
|
|
||
Area Harvested |
399 |
431 |
428 |
453 |
435 |
439 |
447 |
461 |
475 |
487 |
501 |
|
|
|
|
|
(Metric Tons per Hectare) |
|
|
|
|
||
Yield |
1.70 |
1.62 |
1.64 |
1.66 |
1.68 |
1.70 |
1.72 |
1.74 |
1.77 |
1.79 |
1.81 |
|
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Metric Tons) |
|
|
|
|
||
Production |
677 |
700 |
703 |
753 |
733 |
748 |
770 |
804 |
839 |
869 |
904 |
Beginning Stocks |
157 |
166 |
162 |
160 |
165 |
166 |
167 |
167 |
166 |
165 |
165 |
Domestic Supply |
834 |
866 |
866 |
913 |
899 |
915 |
937 |
971 |
1,004 |
1,035 |
1,069 |
Crush |
1,000 |
1,026 |
1,041 |
1,068 |
1,072 |
1,080 |
1,093 |
1,114 |
1,138 |
1,161 |
1,187 |
Other Use |
29 |
27 |
27 |
28 |
29 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
Ending Stocks |
166 |
162 |
160 |
165 |
166 |
167 |
167 |
166 |
165 |
165 |
164 |
Domestic Use |
1,195 |
1,216 |
1,229 |
1,262 |
1,267 |
1,276 |
1,289 |
1,310 |
1,334 |
1,357 |
1,383 |
Net Trade |
-361 |
-350 |
-363 |
-349 |
-368 |
-362 |
-352 |
-339 |
-330 |
-323 |
-314 |
Canola Meal |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
608 |
624 |
633 |
650 |
652 |
656 |
665 |
677 |
692 |
706 |
722 |
Beginning Stocks |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
Domestic Supply |
614 |
629 |
639 |
655 |
657 |
662 |
670 |
683 |
697 |
712 |
727 |
Consumption |
2,507 |
2,571 |
2,619 |
2,644 |
2,661 |
2,685 |
2,727 |
2,783 |
2,832 |
2,888 |
2,937 |
Ending Stocks |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
Domestic Use |
2,513 |
2,577 |
2,625 |
2,649 |
2,667 |
2,690 |
2,733 |
2,789 |
2,837 |
2,893 |
2,942 |
Net Trade |
-1,899 |
-1,948 |
-1,986 |
-1,994 |
-2,010 |
-2,028 |
-2,063 |
-2,106 |
-2,140 |
-2,181 |
-2,215 |
Canola Oil |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
391 |
401 |
407 |
417 |
419 |
422 |
427 |
435 |
445 |
454 |
464 |
Beginning Stocks |
70 |
112 |
115 |
111 |
114 |
118 |
121 |
122 |
121 |
120 |
118 |
Domestic Supply |
461 |
513 |
522 |
528 |
533 |
539 |
548 |
557 |
565 |
573 |
581 |
Consumption |
1,359 |
1,316 |
1,307 |
1,373 |
1,398 |
1,421 |
1,435 |
1,452 |
1,469 |
1,486 |
1,500 |
Ending Stocks |
112 |
115 |
111 |
114 |
118 |
121 |
122 |
121 |
120 |
118 |
115 |
Domestic Use |
1,471 |
1,431 |
1,418 |
1,487 |
1,516 |
1,542 |
1,557 |
1,573 |
1,589 |
1,603 |
1,615 |
Net Trade |
-1,010 |
-918 |
-895 |
-959 |
-983 |
-1,002 |
-1,009 |
-1,015 |
-1,023 |
-1,030 |
-1,034 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Note: Rapeseed varieties low in erucic acid and glucosinulates are produced under the name canola in Canada and the U.S. They are equivalent to 00 rapeseed varieties produced elsewhere.
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook / 243
Australian Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization
|
08/09 |
09/10 |
10/11 |
11/12 |
12/13 |
13/14 |
14/15 |
15/16 |
16/17 |
17/18 |
18/19 |
Rapeseed |
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Hectares) |
|
|
|
|
||
Area Harvested |
1,200 |
1,204 |
1,207 |
1,211 |
1,210 |
1,207 |
1,203 |
1,200 |
1,198 |
1,195 |
1,192 |
|
|
|
|
|
(Metric Tons per Hectare) |
|
|
|
|
||
Yield |
1.17 |
1.13 |
1.14 |
1.15 |
1.16 |
1.17 |
1.19 |
1.20 |
1.21 |
1.22 |
1.23 |
|
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Metric Tons) |
|
|
|
|
||
Production |
1,400 |
1,362 |
1,379 |
1,396 |
1,408 |
1,418 |
1,426 |
1,435 |
1,446 |
1,456 |
1,465 |
Beginning Stocks |
239 |
329 |
328 |
332 |
335 |
337 |
338 |
339 |
341 |
342 |
345 |
Domestic Supply |
1,639 |
1,691 |
1,707 |
1,729 |
1,743 |
1,755 |
1,764 |
1,775 |
1,787 |
1,798 |
1,809 |
Crush |
540 |
551 |
556 |
561 |
568 |
574 |
580 |
585 |
591 |
597 |
602 |
Other Use |
25 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
Ending Stocks |
329 |
328 |
332 |
335 |
337 |
338 |
339 |
341 |
342 |
345 |
347 |
Domestic Use |
894 |
905 |
914 |
921 |
930 |
937 |
945 |
952 |
959 |
967 |
975 |
Net Trade |
745 |
786 |
793 |
808 |
813 |
818 |
819 |
823 |
828 |
831 |
835 |
Rapeseed Meal |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
312 |
319 |
321 |
324 |
328 |
332 |
335 |
338 |
342 |
345 |
348 |
Beginning Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Domestic Supply |
312 |
319 |
321 |
324 |
328 |
332 |
335 |
338 |
342 |
345 |
348 |
Consumption |
308 |
319 |
321 |
324 |
328 |
332 |
335 |
338 |
342 |
345 |
348 |
Ending Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Domestic Use |
308 |
319 |
321 |
324 |
328 |
332 |
335 |
338 |
342 |
345 |
348 |
Net Trade |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rapeseed Oil |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
216 |
221 |
223 |
224 |
227 |
230 |
232 |
234 |
236 |
239 |
241 |
Beginning Stocks |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
Domestic Supply |
221 |
226 |
227 |
229 |
232 |
234 |
237 |
239 |
241 |
244 |
246 |
Consumption |
174 |
176 |
179 |
180 |
182 |
182 |
182 |
183 |
183 |
183 |
183 |
Ending Stocks |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
Domestic Use |
179 |
181 |
183 |
185 |
186 |
187 |
187 |
188 |
188 |
188 |
188 |
Net Trade |
42 |
45 |
44 |
44 |
46 |
47 |
49 |
51 |
54 |
56 |
58 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
244 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook
Canadian Canola Sector Supply and Utilization
|
08/09 |
09/10 |
10/11 |
11/12 |
12/13 |
13/14 |
14/15 |
15/16 |
16/17 |
17/18 |
18/19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
Canola |
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Hectares) |
|
|
|
|
||
Area Harvested |
6,490 |
6,498 |
6,465 |
6,562 |
6,645 |
6,702 |
6,760 |
6,806 |
6,847 |
6,890 |
6,945 |
|
|
|
|
|
(Metric Tons per Hectare) |
|
|
|
|
||
Yield |
1.94 |
1.72 |
1.74 |
1.76 |
1.78 |
1.80 |
1.83 |
1.85 |
1.87 |
1.89 |
1.91 |
|
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Metric Tons) |
|
|
|
|
||
Production |
12,600 |
11,165 |
11,248 |
11,558 |
11,847 |
12,094 |
12,345 |
12,577 |
12,799 |
13,028 |
13,283 |
Beginning Stocks |
1,248 |
2,998 |
3,112 |
3,113 |
3,128 |
3,141 |
3,129 |
3,121 |
3,126 |
3,143 |
3,157 |
Domestic Supply |
13,848 |
14,163 |
14,360 |
14,671 |
14,976 |
15,235 |
15,473 |
15,698 |
15,925 |
16,171 |
16,439 |
Crush |
4,550 |
5,070 |
5,148 |
5,278 |
5,419 |
5,575 |
5,729 |
5,861 |
5,966 |
6,084 |
6,198 |
Other Use |
600 |
629 |
627 |
638 |
648 |
649 |
651 |
656 |
663 |
670 |
677 |
Ending Stocks |
2,998 |
3,112 |
3,113 |
3,128 |
3,141 |
3,129 |
3,121 |
3,126 |
3,143 |
3,157 |
3,167 |
Domestic Use |
8,148 |
8,812 |
8,888 |
9,044 |
9,207 |
9,352 |
9,502 |
9,643 |
9,772 |
9,911 |
10,042 |
Net Trade |
5,700 |
5,351 |
5,472 |
5,626 |
5,769 |
5,883 |
5,971 |
6,055 |
6,152 |
6,260 |
6,397 |
Canola Meal |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
2,700 |
3,009 |
3,055 |
3,132 |
3,215 |
3,308 |
3,400 |
3,478 |
3,540 |
3,610 |
3,678 |
Beginning Stocks |
67 |
70 |
71 |
71 |
71 |
71 |
71 |
71 |
71 |
71 |
71 |
Domestic Supply |
2,767 |
3,079 |
3,126 |
3,203 |
3,287 |
3,380 |
3,471 |
3,549 |
3,611 |
3,682 |
3,749 |
Consumption |
700 |
787 |
808 |
828 |
839 |
848 |
855 |
861 |
869 |
875 |
881 |
Ending Stocks |
70 |
71 |
71 |
71 |
71 |
71 |
71 |
71 |
71 |
71 |
71 |
Domestic Use |
770 |
857 |
879 |
899 |
910 |
919 |
926 |
932 |
941 |
947 |
953 |
Net Trade |
1,997 |
2,222 |
2,247 |
2,304 |
2,376 |
2,460 |
2,545 |
2,617 |
2,671 |
2,735 |
2,796 |
Canola Oil |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
1,830 |
2,039 |
2,071 |
2,123 |
2,179 |
2,242 |
2,304 |
2,357 |
2,399 |
2,447 |
2,493 |
Beginning Stocks |
63 |
73 |
73 |
73 |
73 |
73 |
73 |
72 |
72 |
73 |
73 |
Domestic Supply |
1,893 |
2,112 |
2,144 |
2,196 |
2,252 |
2,315 |
2,377 |
2,430 |
2,472 |
2,520 |
2,565 |
Consumption |
410 |
409 |
411 |
415 |
419 |
421 |
424 |
427 |
431 |
435 |
439 |
Ending Stocks |
73 |
73 |
73 |
73 |
73 |
73 |
72 |
72 |
73 |
73 |
73 |
Domestic Use |
483 |
482 |
484 |
488 |
492 |
494 |
496 |
500 |
504 |
508 |
512 |
Net Trade |
1,410 |
1,630 |
1,660 |
1,708 |
1,761 |
1,821 |
1,881 |
1,930 |
1,968 |
2,011 |
2,054 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Note: Rapeseed varieties low in erucic acid and glucosinulates are produced under the name canola in Canada and the U.S. They are equivalent to 00 rapeseed varieties produced elsewhere.