OutlookPub2009
.pdfWorld Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook / 245
Chinese Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization
|
08/09 |
09/10 |
10/11 |
11/12 |
12/13 |
13/14 |
14/15 |
15/16 |
16/17 |
17/18 |
18/19 |
Rapeseed |
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Hectares) |
|
|
|
|
||
Area Harvested |
6,400 |
6,655 |
6,675 |
6,737 |
6,677 |
6,596 |
6,539 |
6,486 |
6,433 |
6,382 |
6,327 |
|
|
|
|
|
(Metric Tons per Hectare) |
|
|
|
|
||
Yield |
1.80 |
1.87 |
1.89 |
1.91 |
1.93 |
1.95 |
1.97 |
1.99 |
2.01 |
2.03 |
2.05 |
|
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Metric Tons) |
|
|
|
|
||
Production |
11,500 |
12,419 |
12,592 |
12,846 |
12,869 |
12,846 |
12,869 |
12,897 |
12,922 |
12,951 |
12,968 |
Beginning Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Domestic Supply |
11,500 |
12,419 |
12,592 |
12,846 |
12,869 |
12,846 |
12,869 |
12,897 |
12,922 |
12,951 |
12,968 |
Crush |
11,900 |
12,753 |
12,902 |
13,161 |
13,376 |
13,537 |
13,706 |
13,855 |
14,013 |
14,211 |
14,429 |
Other Use |
649 |
687 |
684 |
696 |
702 |
703 |
705 |
707 |
709 |
711 |
711 |
Ending Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Domestic Use |
12,549 |
13,441 |
13,586 |
13,857 |
14,078 |
14,239 |
14,411 |
14,562 |
14,721 |
14,922 |
15,140 |
Net Trade |
-1,049 |
-1,021 |
-994 |
-1,012 |
-1,209 |
-1,393 |
-1,542 |
-1,665 |
-1,799 |
-1,971 |
-2,172 |
Rapeseed Meal |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
7,480 |
8,016 |
8,110 |
8,273 |
8,408 |
8,509 |
8,615 |
8,709 |
8,808 |
8,933 |
9,069 |
Beginning Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Domestic Supply |
7,480 |
8,016 |
8,110 |
8,273 |
8,408 |
8,509 |
8,615 |
8,709 |
8,808 |
8,933 |
9,069 |
Feed Use |
7,270 |
7,469 |
7,669 |
7,920 |
8,082 |
8,213 |
8,338 |
8,465 |
8,599 |
8,730 |
8,859 |
Industrial Use |
310 |
326 |
340 |
353 |
361 |
365 |
368 |
372 |
376 |
380 |
383 |
Ending Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Domestic Use |
7,580 |
7,796 |
8,009 |
8,273 |
8,443 |
8,578 |
8,706 |
8,837 |
8,975 |
9,110 |
9,242 |
Net Trade |
-100 |
221 |
102 |
0 |
-36 |
-69 |
-91 |
-128 |
-167 |
-177 |
-173 |
Rapeseed Oil |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
4,225 |
4,528 |
4,581 |
4,673 |
4,749 |
4,806 |
4,866 |
4,919 |
4,975 |
5,046 |
5,123 |
Beginning Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Domestic Supply |
4,225 |
4,528 |
4,581 |
4,673 |
4,749 |
4,806 |
4,866 |
4,919 |
4,975 |
5,046 |
5,123 |
Consumption |
4,545 |
4,699 |
4,655 |
4,738 |
4,824 |
4,887 |
4,958 |
5,024 |
5,080 |
5,145 |
5,198 |
Ending Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Domestic Use |
4,545 |
4,699 |
4,655 |
4,738 |
4,824 |
4,887 |
4,958 |
5,024 |
5,080 |
5,145 |
5,198 |
Net Trade |
-320 |
-171 |
-74 |
-65 |
-75 |
-81 |
-92 |
-105 |
-105 |
-99 |
-75 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
246 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook
European Union Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization
|
08/09 |
09/10 |
10/11 |
11/12 |
12/13 |
13/14 |
14/15 |
15/16 |
16/17 |
17/18 |
18/19 |
Rapeseed |
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Hectares) |
|
|
|
|
||
Total Area Harvested |
6,250 |
6,311 |
6,359 |
6,469 |
6,628 |
6,766 |
6,887 |
6,997 |
7,110 |
7,226 |
7,334 |
|
|
|
|
|
(Metric Tons per Hectare) |
|
|
|
|
||
Yield |
3.06 |
3.07 |
3.09 |
3.11 |
3.13 |
3.15 |
3.16 |
3.18 |
3.20 |
3.22 |
3.24 |
|
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Metric Tons) |
|
|
|
|
||
Production |
19,100 |
19,401 |
19,661 |
20,118 |
20,732 |
21,285 |
21,789 |
22,264 |
22,753 |
23,253 |
23,732 |
Beginning Stocks |
1,009 |
1,075 |
1,166 |
1,152 |
1,155 |
1,168 |
1,175 |
1,188 |
1,202 |
1,213 |
1,229 |
Domestic Supply |
20,109 |
20,476 |
20,827 |
21,270 |
21,887 |
22,453 |
22,964 |
23,452 |
23,954 |
24,467 |
24,961 |
Crush |
19,600 |
19,659 |
20,329 |
20,996 |
21,558 |
22,059 |
22,493 |
22,922 |
23,366 |
23,781 |
24,185 |
Other Use |
884 |
872 |
866 |
871 |
885 |
894 |
906 |
918 |
929 |
942 |
954 |
Ending Stocks |
1,075 |
1,166 |
1,152 |
1,155 |
1,168 |
1,175 |
1,188 |
1,202 |
1,213 |
1,229 |
1,242 |
Domestic Use |
21,559 |
21,697 |
22,347 |
23,022 |
23,610 |
24,127 |
24,588 |
25,041 |
25,508 |
25,952 |
26,381 |
Net Trade |
-1,450 |
-1,221 |
-1,520 |
-1,752 |
-1,723 |
-1,674 |
-1,624 |
-1,589 |
-1,554 |
-1,486 |
-1,421 |
Rapeseed Meal |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
11,280 |
11,314 |
11,699 |
12,084 |
12,407 |
12,695 |
12,945 |
13,192 |
13,447 |
13,686 |
13,919 |
Beginning Stocks |
101 |
126 |
131 |
135 |
137 |
139 |
139 |
140 |
141 |
142 |
144 |
Domestic Supply |
11,381 |
11,440 |
11,830 |
12,219 |
12,544 |
12,834 |
13,084 |
13,332 |
13,588 |
13,829 |
14,063 |
Consumption |
11,135 |
11,402 |
11,778 |
12,089 |
12,376 |
12,636 |
12,885 |
13,128 |
13,382 |
13,648 |
13,925 |
Ending Stocks |
126 |
131 |
135 |
137 |
139 |
139 |
140 |
141 |
142 |
144 |
145 |
Domestic Use |
11,261 |
11,533 |
11,913 |
12,226 |
12,514 |
12,775 |
13,025 |
13,269 |
13,524 |
13,792 |
14,070 |
Net Trade |
120 |
-93 |
-83 |
-8 |
30 |
58 |
59 |
63 |
64 |
37 |
-7 |
Rapeseed Oil |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
8,140 |
8,165 |
8,443 |
8,720 |
8,953 |
9,161 |
9,342 |
9,520 |
9,704 |
9,877 |
10,044 |
Beginning Stocks |
176 |
204 |
203 |
199 |
197 |
197 |
198 |
199 |
200 |
201 |
203 |
Domestic Supply |
8,316 |
8,369 |
8,646 |
8,919 |
9,150 |
9,358 |
9,539 |
9,719 |
9,904 |
10,078 |
10,247 |
Food Use |
2,482 |
2,467 |
2,427 |
2,441 |
2,450 |
2,454 |
2,463 |
2,469 |
2,472 |
2,480 |
2,484 |
Biodiesel and Industrial Use |
5,685 |
6,139 |
6,676 |
6,987 |
7,250 |
7,514 |
7,723 |
7,926 |
8,144 |
8,340 |
8,558 |
Other Use |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
Ending Stocks |
204 |
203 |
199 |
197 |
197 |
198 |
199 |
200 |
201 |
203 |
204 |
Domestic Use |
8,376 |
8,813 |
9,307 |
9,630 |
9,903 |
10,170 |
10,390 |
10,600 |
10,822 |
11,028 |
11,251 |
Net Trade |
-60 |
-445 |
-662 |
-711 |
-753 |
-812 |
-851 |
-881 |
-918 |
-950 |
-1,004 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook / 247
Indian Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization
|
08/09 |
09/10 |
10/11 |
11/12 |
12/13 |
13/14 |
14/15 |
15/16 |
16/17 |
17/18 |
18/19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
Rapeseed |
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Hectares) |
|
|
|
|
||
Area Harvested |
6,200 |
6,007 |
5,936 |
5,946 |
5,968 |
6,006 |
6,054 |
6,110 |
6,184 |
6,266 |
6,339 |
|
|
|
|
|
(Metric Tons per Hectare) |
|
|
|
|
||
Yield |
0.94 |
0.94 |
0.95 |
0.96 |
0.97 |
0.98 |
0.99 |
1.00 |
1.01 |
1.02 |
1.03 |
|
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Metric Tons) |
|
|
|
|
||
Production |
5,800 |
5,674 |
5,661 |
5,725 |
5,800 |
5,892 |
5,994 |
6,105 |
6,235 |
6,375 |
6,507 |
Beginning Stocks |
100 |
50 |
72 |
66 |
71 |
78 |
83 |
89 |
94 |
99 |
104 |
Domestic Supply |
5,900 |
5,724 |
5,733 |
5,791 |
5,872 |
5,970 |
6,077 |
6,194 |
6,329 |
6,473 |
6,611 |
Crush |
5,271 |
4,912 |
5,202 |
5,406 |
5,467 |
5,511 |
5,580 |
5,664 |
5,772 |
5,889 |
6,029 |
Other Use |
675 |
837 |
560 |
410 |
422 |
471 |
504 |
532 |
554 |
576 |
569 |
Ending Stocks |
50 |
72 |
66 |
71 |
78 |
83 |
89 |
94 |
99 |
104 |
108 |
Domestic Use |
5,996 |
5,820 |
5,829 |
5,887 |
5,968 |
6,066 |
6,173 |
6,290 |
6,425 |
6,569 |
6,707 |
Net Trade |
-96 |
-96 |
-96 |
-96 |
-96 |
-96 |
-96 |
-96 |
-96 |
-96 |
-96 |
Rapeseed Meal |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
3,187 |
2,970 |
3,146 |
3,269 |
3,306 |
3,332 |
3,374 |
3,425 |
3,490 |
3,561 |
3,646 |
Beginning Stocks |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
Domestic Supply |
3,232 |
3,015 |
3,191 |
3,314 |
3,351 |
3,377 |
3,419 |
3,470 |
3,535 |
3,606 |
3,691 |
Consumption |
2,387 |
2,469 |
2,503 |
2,550 |
2,567 |
2,589 |
2,605 |
2,617 |
2,629 |
2,645 |
2,661 |
Ending Stocks |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
Domestic Use |
2,432 |
2,514 |
2,548 |
2,595 |
2,612 |
2,634 |
2,650 |
2,662 |
2,674 |
2,690 |
2,706 |
Net Trade |
800 |
500 |
642 |
719 |
739 |
743 |
769 |
807 |
861 |
916 |
985 |
Rapeseed Oil |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
1,990 |
1,854 |
1,964 |
2,041 |
2,064 |
2,081 |
2,107 |
2,138 |
2,179 |
2,223 |
2,276 |
Beginning Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Domestic Supply |
1,990 |
1,854 |
1,964 |
2,041 |
2,064 |
2,081 |
2,107 |
2,138 |
2,179 |
2,223 |
2,276 |
Consumption |
1,989 |
1,853 |
1,963 |
2,040 |
2,063 |
2,080 |
2,106 |
2,137 |
2,178 |
2,223 |
2,275 |
Ending Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Domestic Use |
1,989 |
1,853 |
1,963 |
2,040 |
2,063 |
2,080 |
2,106 |
2,137 |
2,178 |
2,223 |
2,275 |
Net Trade |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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248 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook
Japanese Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization
|
08/09 |
09/10 |
10/11 |
11/12 |
12/13 |
13/14 |
14/15 |
15/16 |
16/17 |
17/18 |
18/19 |
Rapeseed |
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Hectares) |
|
|
|
|
||
Area Harvested |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
(Metric Tons per Hectare) |
|
|
|
|
||
Yield |
1.00 |
1.01 |
1.02 |
1.03 |
1.04 |
1.05 |
1.06 |
1.07 |
1.08 |
1.09 |
1.10 |
|
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Metric Tons) |
|
|
|
|
||
Production |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Beginning Stocks |
140 |
136 |
140 |
138 |
138 |
139 |
139 |
139 |
140 |
140 |
141 |
Domestic Supply |
141 |
137 |
141 |
139 |
139 |
140 |
140 |
140 |
141 |
141 |
142 |
Crush |
2,350 |
2,487 |
2,479 |
2,496 |
2,517 |
2,531 |
2,545 |
2,557 |
2,566 |
2,577 |
2,584 |
Other Use |
5 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
Ending Stocks |
136 |
140 |
138 |
138 |
139 |
139 |
139 |
140 |
140 |
141 |
142 |
Domestic Use |
2,491 |
2,632 |
2,621 |
2,638 |
2,660 |
2,674 |
2,688 |
2,701 |
2,711 |
2,722 |
2,731 |
Net Trade |
-2,350 |
-2,495 |
-2,481 |
-2,499 |
-2,521 |
-2,534 |
-2,549 |
-2,561 |
-2,570 |
-2,581 |
-2,588 |
Rapeseed Meal |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
1,334 |
1,412 |
1,407 |
1,417 |
1,429 |
1,437 |
1,444 |
1,451 |
1,457 |
1,463 |
1,467 |
Beginning Stocks |
26 |
48 |
51 |
54 |
56 |
56 |
56 |
56 |
56 |
57 |
57 |
Domestic Supply |
1,360 |
1,460 |
1,458 |
1,470 |
1,484 |
1,493 |
1,500 |
1,507 |
1,513 |
1,519 |
1,524 |
Consumption |
1,345 |
1,345 |
1,356 |
1,373 |
1,389 |
1,402 |
1,408 |
1,409 |
1,405 |
1,404 |
1,407 |
Ending Stocks |
48 |
51 |
54 |
56 |
56 |
56 |
56 |
56 |
57 |
57 |
58 |
Domestic Use |
1,393 |
1,395 |
1,410 |
1,428 |
1,445 |
1,458 |
1,464 |
1,465 |
1,462 |
1,461 |
1,465 |
Net Trade |
-33 |
64 |
48 |
42 |
39 |
35 |
37 |
42 |
51 |
58 |
60 |
Rapeseed Oil |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
945 |
1,000 |
997 |
1,004 |
1,012 |
1,018 |
1,023 |
1,028 |
1,032 |
1,036 |
1,039 |
Beginning Stocks |
31 |
51 |
49 |
45 |
44 |
43 |
43 |
43 |
43 |
43 |
43 |
Domestic Supply |
976 |
1,051 |
1,046 |
1,048 |
1,056 |
1,061 |
1,066 |
1,071 |
1,075 |
1,079 |
1,082 |
Consumption |
945 |
1,025 |
1,025 |
1,031 |
1,041 |
1,049 |
1,055 |
1,062 |
1,068 |
1,074 |
1,079 |
Ending Stocks |
51 |
49 |
45 |
44 |
43 |
43 |
43 |
43 |
43 |
43 |
43 |
Domestic Use |
996 |
1,073 |
1,070 |
1,075 |
1,084 |
1,091 |
1,098 |
1,105 |
1,111 |
1,117 |
1,122 |
Net Trade |
-20 |
-22 |
-24 |
-26 |
-28 |
-30 |
-32 |
-34 |
-36 |
-38 |
-40 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook / 249
Other CIS Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization
|
08/09 |
09/10 |
10/11 |
11/12 |
12/13 |
13/14 |
14/15 |
15/16 |
16/17 |
17/18 |
18/1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
Rapeseed |
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Hectares) |
|
|
|
|
|
||
Area Harvested |
989 |
1,028 |
1,053 |
1,076 |
1,096 |
1,114 |
1,133 |
1,151 |
1,169 |
1,187 |
1,20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(Metric Tons per Hectare) |
|
|
|
|
|
||
Yield |
1.41 |
1.36 |
1.38 |
1.40 |
1.42 |
1.44 |
1.45 |
1.47 |
1.49 |
1.51 |
1.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Metric Tons) |
|
|
|
|
|
||
Production |
1,390 |
1,403 |
1,455 |
1,507 |
1,554 |
1,600 |
1,647 |
1,694 |
1,742 |
1,791 |
1,84 |
|
Beginning Stocks |
144 |
147 |
155 |
156 |
157 |
159 |
159 |
160 |
161 |
162 |
16 |
|
Domestic Supply |
1,534 |
1,550 |
1,610 |
1,663 |
1,712 |
1,759 |
1,806 |
1,854 |
1,903 |
1,952 |
2,00 |
|
Crush |
790 |
817 |
836 |
858 |
879 |
900 |
920 |
939 |
959 |
978 |
99 |
|
Other Use |
40 |
43 |
45 |
46 |
47 |
48 |
49 |
50 |
51 |
53 |
5 |
|
Ending Stocks |
147 |
155 |
156 |
157 |
159 |
159 |
160 |
161 |
162 |
163 |
16 |
|
Domestic Use |
977 |
1,015 |
1,037 |
1,061 |
1,085 |
1,107 |
1,129 |
1,151 |
1,172 |
1,193 |
1,21 |
|
Net Trade |
557 |
535 |
573 |
602 |
627 |
652 |
677 |
703 |
731 |
760 |
78 |
|
Rapeseed Meal |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
469 |
485 |
496 |
509 |
522 |
534 |
546 |
558 |
569 |
580 |
59 |
|
Beginning Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Domestic Supply |
469 |
485 |
496 |
509 |
522 |
534 |
546 |
558 |
569 |
580 |
59 |
|
Consumption |
358 |
370 |
376 |
382 |
387 |
391 |
395 |
399 |
403 |
408 |
41 |
|
Ending Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Domestic Use |
358 |
370 |
376 |
382 |
387 |
391 |
395 |
399 |
403 |
408 |
41 |
|
Net Trade |
111 |
115 |
120 |
127 |
135 |
143 |
151 |
159 |
166 |
172 |
17 |
|
Rapeseed Oil |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
308 |
318 |
326 |
334 |
343 |
351 |
359 |
366 |
374 |
381 |
38 |
|
Beginning Stocks |
32 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
3 |
|
Domestic Supply |
340 |
349 |
357 |
365 |
374 |
382 |
390 |
397 |
405 |
412 |
41 |
|
Consumption |
254 |
232 |
232 |
232 |
233 |
233 |
234 |
235 |
235 |
236 |
23 |
|
Ending Stocks |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
3 |
|
Domestic Use |
285 |
263 |
263 |
263 |
264 |
264 |
265 |
266 |
266 |
267 |
26 |
|
Net Trade |
55 |
87 |
94 |
102 |
110 |
117 |
125 |
131 |
138 |
145 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
250 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook
Ukrainian Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization
|
08/09 |
09/10 |
10/11 |
11/12 |
12/13 |
13/14 |
14/15 |
15/16 |
16/17 |
17/18 |
18/19 |
Rapeseed |
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Hectares) |
|
|
|
|
||
Area Harvested |
1,400 |
1,529 |
1,619 |
1,681 |
1,724 |
1,753 |
1,773 |
1,786 |
1,795 |
1,801 |
1,805 |
|
|
|
|
|
(Metric Tons per Hectare) |
|
|
|
|
||
Yield |
2.00 |
1.94 |
1.96 |
1.98 |
2.00 |
2.02 |
2.04 |
2.06 |
2.08 |
2.10 |
2.12 |
|
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Metric Tons) |
|
|
|
|
||
Production |
2,800 |
2,967 |
3,173 |
3,330 |
3,449 |
3,543 |
3,618 |
3,681 |
3,736 |
3,785 |
3,830 |
Beginning Stocks |
2 |
140 |
140 |
140 |
140 |
140 |
140 |
140 |
140 |
140 |
140 |
Domestic Supply |
2,802 |
3,107 |
3,313 |
3,470 |
3,589 |
3,683 |
3,758 |
3,821 |
3,876 |
3,925 |
3,970 |
Crush |
400 |
429 |
455 |
481 |
505 |
530 |
554 |
577 |
600 |
623 |
645 |
Other Use |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
16 |
16 |
16 |
16 |
Ending Stocks |
140 |
140 |
140 |
140 |
140 |
140 |
140 |
140 |
140 |
140 |
140 |
Domestic Use |
555 |
584 |
610 |
636 |
661 |
685 |
709 |
733 |
756 |
779 |
801 |
Net Trade |
2,247 |
2,523 |
2,703 |
2,834 |
2,928 |
2,998 |
3,049 |
3,088 |
3,120 |
3,146 |
3,169 |
Rapeseed Meal |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
226 |
242 |
257 |
272 |
286 |
299 |
313 |
326 |
339 |
352 |
365 |
Beginning Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Domestic Supply |
226 |
242 |
257 |
272 |
286 |
299 |
313 |
326 |
339 |
352 |
365 |
Consumption |
166 |
168 |
168 |
169 |
170 |
171 |
171 |
171 |
172 |
172 |
173 |
Ending Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Domestic Use |
166 |
168 |
168 |
169 |
170 |
171 |
171 |
171 |
172 |
172 |
173 |
Net Trade |
60 |
74 |
89 |
102 |
115 |
129 |
142 |
155 |
167 |
180 |
192 |
Rapeseed Oil |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
158 |
169 |
180 |
190 |
200 |
209 |
219 |
228 |
237 |
246 |
255 |
Beginning Stocks |
9 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Domestic Supply |
167 |
175 |
186 |
196 |
206 |
215 |
224 |
234 |
243 |
252 |
260 |
Consumption |
101 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
99 |
99 |
99 |
99 |
Ending Stocks |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Domestic Use |
107 |
106 |
106 |
106 |
106 |
106 |
105 |
105 |
105 |
105 |
104 |
Net Trade |
60 |
69 |
80 |
90 |
100 |
110 |
119 |
129 |
138 |
147 |
156 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook / 251
Rest-of-World Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization
|
08/09 |
09/10 |
10/11 |
11/12 |
12/13 |
13/14 |
14/15 |
15/16 |
16/17 |
17/18 |
18/19 |
Rapeseed |
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Hectares) |
|
|
|
|
||
Area Harvested |
725 |
699 |
698 |
715 |
722 |
728 |
734 |
740 |
746 |
753 |
759 |
|
|
|
|
|
(Metric Tons per Hectare) |
|
|
|
|
||
Yield |
0.99 |
1.04 |
1.06 |
1.07 |
1.09 |
1.10 |
1.12 |
1.14 |
1.15 |
1.17 |
1.18 |
|
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Metric Tons) |
|
|
|
|
||
Production |
719 |
727 |
737 |
766 |
786 |
803 |
823 |
841 |
860 |
880 |
898 |
Beginning Stocks |
53 |
107 |
91 |
90 |
90 |
91 |
91 |
92 |
93 |
93 |
94 |
Domestic Supply |
771 |
834 |
829 |
856 |
876 |
895 |
914 |
933 |
953 |
973 |
993 |
Crush |
3,963 |
4,163 |
4,278 |
4,376 |
4,465 |
4,549 |
4,625 |
4,700 |
4,777 |
4,849 |
4,920 |
Other Use |
107 |
100 |
102 |
103 |
103 |
103 |
103 |
103 |
103 |
102 |
102 |
Ending Stocks |
107 |
91 |
90 |
90 |
91 |
91 |
92 |
93 |
93 |
94 |
95 |
Domestic Use |
4,178 |
4,355 |
4,470 |
4,570 |
4,659 |
4,743 |
4,820 |
4,896 |
4,973 |
5,045 |
5,117 |
Net Trade |
-3,407 |
-3,520 |
-3,641 |
-3,714 |
-3,783 |
-3,849 |
-3,906 |
-3,963 |
-4,020 |
-4,072 |
-4,124 |
Rapeseed Meal |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
2,316 |
2,432 |
2,500 |
2,557 |
2,609 |
2,658 |
2,702 |
2,746 |
2,791 |
2,833 |
2,875 |
Beginning Stocks |
68 |
64 |
72 |
77 |
81 |
83 |
84 |
84 |
85 |
87 |
89 |
Domestic Supply |
2,384 |
2,496 |
2,571 |
2,634 |
2,690 |
2,741 |
2,786 |
2,831 |
2,877 |
2,920 |
2,964 |
Consumption |
3,161 |
3,458 |
3,595 |
3,749 |
3,882 |
4,011 |
4,139 |
4,261 |
4,381 |
4,501 |
4,622 |
Ending Stocks |
64 |
72 |
77 |
81 |
83 |
84 |
84 |
85 |
87 |
89 |
91 |
Domestic Use |
3,224 |
3,530 |
3,671 |
3,830 |
3,965 |
4,095 |
4,223 |
4,347 |
4,468 |
4,590 |
4,713 |
Net Trade |
-841 |
-1,034 |
-1,100 |
-1,196 |
-1,275 |
-1,354 |
-1,437 |
-1,516 |
-1,591 |
-1,670 |
-1,749 |
Rapeseed Oil |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
1,548 |
1,626 |
1,671 |
1,709 |
1,744 |
1,777 |
1,806 |
1,836 |
1,866 |
1,894 |
1,922 |
Beginning Stocks |
54 |
60 |
65 |
62 |
62 |
62 |
62 |
62 |
63 |
63 |
63 |
Domestic Supply |
1,602 |
1,685 |
1,736 |
1,772 |
1,806 |
1,839 |
1,868 |
1,898 |
1,928 |
1,957 |
1,985 |
Consumption |
1,578 |
1,696 |
1,710 |
1,748 |
1,786 |
1,822 |
1,862 |
1,902 |
1,941 |
1,984 |
2,024 |
Ending Stocks |
60 |
65 |
62 |
62 |
62 |
62 |
62 |
63 |
63 |
63 |
64 |
Domestic Use |
1,638 |
1,761 |
1,772 |
1,810 |
1,848 |
1,884 |
1,925 |
1,965 |
2,004 |
2,047 |
2,088 |
Net Trade |
-35 |
-76 |
-36 |
-38 |
-42 |
-45 |
-56 |
-67 |
-75 |
-90 |
-103 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
252 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook
World Sunflower Seed and Sunflower Seed Products
The sunflower seed price decreases in line with other commodities in 2008/09. It declines again next season because of large carryovers. Thereafter, the world price strengthens slightly and remains stable with relatively high values. The sunflower meal price declines 30% this season because of strong supplies and weakening demand from the livestock sector. The price weakens throughout the decade, returning to its historical order below the rapeseed meal price by the end of the outlook. The sunflower oil price declines 40% in 2008/09 because of the economic slowdown and strong supplies. The price stays close to that of other vegetable oils for the remainder of the decade.
The world sunflower crop increased by 33% in 2008/09, despite the 22% plunge in Argentina, because of soaring production levels in the EU, Ukraine, and Other CIS. Production grows about 1% annually throughout the outlook period. World sunflower net trade spikes 93.1% in 2008/09 because of the large supplies. Total net trade expands 52%, to 1.6 mmt, over the next decade. Ukraine and Other CIS account for almost 80% of world net exports by 2018/19. Argentina’s share of world net exports averages 10% during the outlook period.
World sunflower meal production increases steadily, from the current level of 12.6 mmt to 14.1 mmt by 2018/19. Consumption develops at an annual rate of 1.3% over the outlook period. World net trade in sunflower meal grows by 5%, to 3.4 mmt. Similar development can be seen in the sunflower oil market. World production increased by 18% in 2008/09, and it expands an additional 13% by the end of the outlook. Net trade expands to 4.5 mmt. The average world per capita consumption increases 0.9% annually over the next 10 years. For both sunflower meal and oil, Argentina and Ukraine are the dominant exporters while the EU remains the most significant buyer in the international market.
Weaker competition for area from coarse grains increased sunflower harvested area in Ukraine and Other CIS by 18.5% in 2008/09. Area stabilized at high levels in response to relatively strong prices through the remainder of the projection period. With the increases in yields, sunflower production reaches 15.6 mmt by 2018/19. Ukraine and Other CIS maintain their position as the largest sunflower producers, holding a 43% share of world production over the next decade. The share of domestically crushed seeds surpasses 85% over the next decade in these countries.
Argentine sunflower production decreased 22% in 2008/09 as area and yields suffered from competition with other crops and dry weather. Argentina remains a significant producer in the world, contributing 5.4 mmt by 2018/19. More than 95% of production is used domestically by an export-oriented crushing industry. The differential export tax encourages producers to export more derived products other than sunflower seeds. Argentina exports more than 64% of its sunflower meal production and about 78% of its sunflower oil production throughout the baseline. Argentina holds a 37% share of world sunflower oil net exports, second only to the 41% share of Ukraine.
EU sunflower area recovered by 8% in 2008/09 because of weaker competition from coarse grains. Increasing area and strong yields facilitated by propitious weather raised production by 46% this season. Both yield and area retreat from the current highs next season, and total production reaches 6.4 mmt over the outlook period. Domestic consumption growth of sunflower oil for food and industrial uses outpaced production expansion, generating an increase in demand for imports. Sunflower oil net imports grow 33% over the outlook period. The EU remains the leading sunflower meal and oil net importer, accounting for 49% and 37% of these world markets, respectively.
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook / 253
Sunflower Seed Trade
|
08/09 |
09/10 |
10/11 |
11/12 |
12/13 |
13/14 |
14/15 |
15/16 |
16/17 |
17/18 |
18/19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
Net Exporters |
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Metric Tons) |
|
|
|
|
||
Argentina |
75 |
16 |
188 |
196 |
189 |
171 |
161 |
154 |
149 |
143 |
135 |
China |
113 |
82 |
104 |
116 |
126 |
140 |
151 |
161 |
169 |
176 |
180 |
Other CIS † |
293 |
297 |
356 |
374 |
387 |
404 |
425 |
450 |
477 |
506 |
536 |
Ukraine |
445 |
350 |
463 |
505 |
531 |
557 |
587 |
614 |
639 |
664 |
692 |
United States |
119 |
132 |
131 |
122 |
115 |
107 |
104 |
93 |
78 |
61 |
43 |
Total Net Exports * |
1,045 |
877 |
1,241 |
1,313 |
1,348 |
1,378 |
1,427 |
1,472 |
1,512 |
1,550 |
1,587 |
Net Importers |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
European Union |
250 |
93 |
183 |
210 |
180 |
154 |
158 |
164 |
169 |
176 |
182 |
Rest of World |
428 |
417 |
690 |
736 |
801 |
857 |
902 |
940 |
977 |
1,007 |
1,038 |
Residual |
367 |
367 |
367 |
367 |
367 |
367 |
367 |
367 |
367 |
367 |
367 |
Total Net Imports |
1,045 |
877 |
1,241 |
1,313 |
1,348 |
1,378 |
1,427 |
1,472 |
1,512 |
1,550 |
1,587 |
Price |
|
|
|
|
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) |
|
|
|
|
||
CIF Lower Rhine |
509 |
469 |
491 |
490 |
492 |
496 |
502 |
503 |
502 |
500 |
497 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
* Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
† Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan. |
|
||||||||||
Sunflower Meal Trade |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
08/09 |
09/10 |
10/11 |
11/12 |
12/13 |
13/14 |
14/15 |
15/16 |
16/17 |
17/18 |
18/19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
Net Exporters |
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Metric Tons) |
|
|
|
|
||
Argentina |
1,200 |
1,167 |
1,185 |
1,215 |
1,243 |
1,270 |
1,295 |
1,319 |
1,345 |
1,371 |
1,399 |
Other CIS † |
392 |
457 |
439 |
433 |
437 |
446 |
442 |
425 |
413 |
398 |
381 |
Ukraine |
1,620 |
1,546 |
1,555 |
1,546 |
1,544 |
1,545 |
1,550 |
1,559 |
1,569 |
1,581 |
1,592 |
United States |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
Total Net Exports * |
3,226 |
3,184 |
3,193 |
3,208 |
3,237 |
3,275 |
3,301 |
3,317 |
3,341 |
3,364 |
3,386 |
Net Importers |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
China |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
European Union |
1,602 |
1,607 |
1,678 |
1,654 |
1,656 |
1,663 |
1,667 |
1,655 |
1,651 |
1,646 |
1,644 |
Rest of World |
1,354 |
1,308 |
1,245 |
1,285 |
1,312 |
1,342 |
1,364 |
1,392 |
1,420 |
1,447 |
1,472 |
Residual |
265 |
265 |
265 |
265 |
265 |
265 |
265 |
265 |
265 |
265 |
265 |
Total Net Imports |
3,226 |
3,184 |
3,193 |
3,208 |
3,237 |
3,275 |
3,301 |
3,317 |
3,341 |
3,364 |
3,386 |
Price |
|
|
|
|
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) |
|
|
|
|
||
CIF Rotterdam |
210 |
204 |
198 |
191 |
189 |
189 |
191 |
190 |
186 |
181 |
177 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
* Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports.
† Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
254 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook
Sunflower Oil Trade
|
08/09 |
09/10 |
10/11 |
11/12 |
12/13 |
13/14 |
14/15 |
15/16 |
16/17 |
17/18 |
18/19 |
Net Exporters |
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Metric Tons) |
|
|
|
|
||
Argentina |
1,385 |
1,365 |
1,395 |
1,435 |
1,469 |
1,502 |
1,532 |
1,563 |
1,599 |
1,632 |
1,669 |
Other CIS † |
450 |
551 |
565 |
595 |
635 |
678 |
723 |
767 |
809 |
854 |
897 |
Ukraine |
1,580 |
1,798 |
1,810 |
1,810 |
1,810 |
1,812 |
1,816 |
1,827 |
1,838 |
1,851 |
1,865 |
United States |
25 |
43 |
39 |
37 |
41 |
44 |
48 |
54 |
62 |
71 |
79 |
Total Net Exports * |
3,440 |
3,756 |
3,809 |
3,878 |
3,955 |
4,035 |
4,119 |
4,211 |
4,307 |
4,408 |
4,510 |
Net Importers |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
China |
15 |
21 |
32 |
49 |
65 |
78 |
90 |
103 |
116 |
129 |
142 |
European Union |
1,255 |
1,437 |
1,511 |
1,517 |
1,531 |
1,548 |
1,568 |
1,591 |
1,616 |
1,643 |
1,672 |
Rest of World |
1,655 |
1,783 |
1,750 |
1,797 |
1,845 |
1,895 |
1,946 |
2,002 |
2,060 |
2,121 |
2,181 |
Residual |
515 |
515 |
515 |
515 |
515 |
515 |
515 |
515 |
515 |
515 |
515 |
Total Net Imports |
3,440 |
3,756 |
3,809 |
3,878 |
3,955 |
4,035 |
4,119 |
4,211 |
4,307 |
4,408 |
4,510 |
Price |
|
|
|
|
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) |
|
|
|
|
||
FOB NW Europe |
999 |
1,029 |
1,097 |
1,140 |
1,172 |
1,205 |
1,236 |
1,263 |
1,292 |
1,316 |
1,340 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
* Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports.
† Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.