OutlookPub2009
.pdfWorld Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook / 215
Per Capita Grain Consumption of Selected Countries
|
08/09 |
09/10 |
10/11 |
11/12 |
12/13 |
13/14 |
14/15 |
15/16 |
16/17 |
17/18 |
18/19 |
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Algeria |
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|
(Kilograms) |
|
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|
Corn |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
Barley |
4.44 |
4.42 |
4.44 |
4.45 |
4.46 |
4.48 |
4.50 |
4.53 |
4.57 |
4.60 |
4.63 |
Argentina |
46.93 |
46.13 |
46.40 |
46.53 |
46.97 |
47.01 |
47.25 |
47.57 |
48.05 |
48.33 |
48.65 |
Corn |
|||||||||||
Barley |
9.88 |
9.82 |
9.78 |
9.78 |
9.77 |
9.78 |
9.77 |
9.81 |
9.84 |
9.85 |
9.83 |
Sorghum |
4.94 |
4.99 |
4.98 |
4.94 |
4.91 |
4.86 |
4.81 |
4.78 |
4.74 |
4.69 |
4.65 |
Australia |
5.95 |
5.88 |
5.83 |
5.88 |
5.96 |
6.02 |
6.06 |
6.10 |
6.16 |
6.22 |
6.27 |
Corn |
|||||||||||
Barley |
45.22 |
44.96 |
44.77 |
44.76 |
44.83 |
45.14 |
45.29 |
45.47 |
45.54 |
45.57 |
45.55 |
Sorghum |
0.24 |
0.23 |
0.22 |
0.22 |
0.22 |
0.22 |
0.22 |
0.22 |
0.22 |
0.22 |
0.22 |
Brazil |
38.20 |
35.00 |
34.95 |
34.66 |
34.67 |
34.54 |
34.51 |
34.50 |
34.56 |
34.59 |
34.64 |
Corn |
|||||||||||
Barley |
2.44 |
2.42 |
2.40 |
2.36 |
2.34 |
2.34 |
2.33 |
2.33 |
2.33 |
2.34 |
2.33 |
Canada |
120.44 |
130.73 |
135.76 |
138.32 |
138.80 |
138.92 |
139.00 |
139.34 |
140.44 |
142.31 |
144.14 |
Corn |
|||||||||||
Barley |
42.15 |
41.29 |
41.96 |
42.47 |
42.44 |
42.49 |
42.15 |
41.93 |
41.87 |
42.11 |
42.11 |
China |
35.34 |
35.96 |
36.21 |
36.41 |
36.56 |
36.69 |
36.81 |
36.90 |
36.99 |
37.02 |
37.08 |
Corn |
|||||||||||
Barley |
2.93 |
3.00 |
3.04 |
3.06 |
3.09 |
3.12 |
3.14 |
3.16 |
3.18 |
3.21 |
3.22 |
Egypt |
28.15 |
27.52 |
27.79 |
27.54 |
27.62 |
27.41 |
27.44 |
27.48 |
27.70 |
27.89 |
28.13 |
Corn |
|||||||||||
European Union |
28.54 |
27.45 |
27.73 |
27.96 |
28.24 |
28.46 |
28.77 |
29.08 |
29.42 |
29.75 |
30.06 |
Corn |
|||||||||||
Barley |
34.66 |
36.91 |
37.23 |
37.61 |
37.92 |
38.18 |
38.53 |
38.90 |
39.28 |
39.67 |
40.02 |
India |
9.15 |
8.91 |
8.94 |
8.94 |
8.98 |
8.99 |
9.01 |
9.02 |
9.04 |
9.04 |
9.05 |
Corn |
|||||||||||
Sorghum |
4.64 |
5.10 |
5.12 |
5.12 |
5.08 |
5.05 |
5.01 |
4.98 |
4.95 |
4.94 |
4.93 |
Indonesia |
16.84 |
16.53 |
16.58 |
16.58 |
16.58 |
16.58 |
16.52 |
16.52 |
16.53 |
16.50 |
16.48 |
Corn |
|||||||||||
Israel |
14.06 |
13.28 |
13.48 |
13.43 |
13.69 |
13.58 |
13.54 |
13.54 |
13.65 |
13.73 |
13.84 |
Corn |
|||||||||||
Barley |
1.41 |
1.42 |
1.42 |
1.42 |
1.42 |
1.42 |
1.41 |
1.41 |
1.41 |
1.41 |
1.41 |
Sorghum |
0.70 |
0.69 |
0.68 |
0.67 |
0.66 |
0.65 |
0.64 |
0.63 |
0.62 |
0.61 |
0.60 |
Japan |
37.71 |
38.24 |
38.05 |
38.00 |
38.16 |
37.89 |
37.86 |
37.85 |
37.94 |
38.01 |
38.13 |
Corn |
|||||||||||
Barley |
2.36 |
2.37 |
2.36 |
2.37 |
2.36 |
2.37 |
2.37 |
2.37 |
2.38 |
2.38 |
2.38 |
Sorghum |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
Malaysia |
6.92 |
6.95 |
7.01 |
7.01 |
7.05 |
7.06 |
7.08 |
7.11 |
7.15 |
7.18 |
7.22 |
Corn |
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Mexico |
145.51 |
142.39 |
142.48 |
142.32 |
142.95 |
142.58 |
142.86 |
142.81 |
142.88 |
142.70 |
142.70 |
Corn |
|||||||||||
Barley |
7.28 |
7.39 |
7.44 |
7.44 |
7.40 |
7.40 |
7.38 |
7.39 |
7.44 |
7.51 |
7.56 |
Sorghum |
0.91 |
0.88 |
0.88 |
0.88 |
0.88 |
0.88 |
0.87 |
0.87 |
0.88 |
0.88 |
0.89 |
Nigeria |
73.84 |
73.04 |
74.50 |
73.71 |
72.17 |
71.45 |
71.20 |
71.75 |
72.14 |
72.13 |
71.84 |
Sorghum |
216 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook
Per Capita Grain Consumption of Selected Countries (continued)
|
08/09 |
09/10 |
10/11 |
11/12 |
12/13 |
13/14 |
14/15 |
15/16 |
16/17 |
17/18 |
18/19 |
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Other Africa |
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(Kilograms) |
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Corn |
41.29 |
40.79 |
40.88 |
40.76 |
40.75 |
40.58 |
40.50 |
40.39 |
40.35 |
40.28 |
40.22 |
Barley |
3.71 |
3.76 |
3.77 |
3.78 |
3.78 |
3.79 |
3.79 |
3.80 |
3.80 |
3.80 |
3.80 |
Other Asia |
11.22 |
11.10 |
11.13 |
11.06 |
11.07 |
11.01 |
10.99 |
10.98 |
11.00 |
11.00 |
11.01 |
Corn |
|||||||||||
Barley |
0.84 |
0.84 |
0.84 |
0.84 |
0.83 |
0.83 |
0.83 |
0.83 |
0.83 |
0.83 |
0.83 |
Other Eastern Europe ‡ |
18.55 |
18.57 |
18.74 |
18.73 |
18.88 |
18.85 |
18.94 |
19.04 |
19.23 |
19.38 |
19.56 |
Corn |
|||||||||||
Barley |
6.84 |
6.98 |
7.02 |
7.03 |
7.02 |
7.03 |
7.05 |
7.10 |
7.15 |
7.20 |
7.25 |
Other CIS † |
4.82 |
4.80 |
4.83 |
4.84 |
4.86 |
4.86 |
4.86 |
4.87 |
4.88 |
4.89 |
4.90 |
Corn |
|||||||||||
Barley |
12.76 |
12.78 |
12.82 |
12.84 |
12.83 |
12.82 |
12.81 |
12.80 |
12.79 |
12.78 |
12.77 |
Other Latin America |
29.50 |
29.03 |
29.37 |
29.42 |
29.67 |
29.72 |
29.90 |
30.09 |
30.36 |
30.57 |
30.79 |
Corn |
|||||||||||
Barley |
4.43 |
4.40 |
4.12 |
4.11 |
4.12 |
4.16 |
4.18 |
4.22 |
4.25 |
4.29 |
4.32 |
Other Middle East |
7.13 |
7.21 |
7.26 |
7.27 |
7.30 |
7.30 |
7.31 |
7.32 |
7.34 |
7.34 |
7.34 |
Corn |
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Barley |
8.22 |
8.44 |
8.46 |
8.50 |
8.49 |
8.52 |
8.52 |
8.54 |
8.54 |
8.55 |
8.56 |
Pakistan |
8.68 |
8.50 |
8.54 |
8.53 |
8.58 |
8.58 |
8.60 |
8.63 |
8.68 |
8.70 |
8.73 |
Corn |
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Barley |
1.53 |
1.48 |
1.41 |
1.38 |
1.36 |
1.35 |
1.33 |
1.31 |
1.30 |
1.28 |
1.26 |
Sorghum |
0.41 |
0.37 |
0.37 |
0.37 |
0.37 |
0.38 |
0.38 |
0.39 |
0.39 |
0.39 |
0.39 |
Philippines |
17.70 |
17.21 |
17.27 |
17.14 |
17.26 |
17.28 |
17.27 |
17.31 |
17.36 |
17.33 |
17.33 |
Corn |
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Russia |
4.98 |
4.75 |
4.77 |
4.81 |
4.83 |
4.83 |
4.84 |
4.86 |
4.88 |
4.89 |
4.91 |
Corn |
|||||||||||
Barley |
36.25 |
36.97 |
37.16 |
37.43 |
37.54 |
37.68 |
37.78 |
37.91 |
38.02 |
38.16 |
38.26 |
Saudi Arabia |
0.36 |
0.48 |
0.58 |
0.59 |
0.60 |
0.61 |
0.61 |
0.62 |
0.63 |
0.65 |
0.66 |
Barley |
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South Africa |
94.30 |
94.19 |
95.92 |
95.49 |
95.85 |
95.51 |
95.56 |
95.84 |
96.52 |
96.96 |
97.42 |
Corn |
|||||||||||
Barley |
5.64 |
5.61 |
5.61 |
5.61 |
5.60 |
5.60 |
5.60 |
5.60 |
5.59 |
5.59 |
5.59 |
Sorghum |
3.69 |
3.62 |
3.69 |
3.69 |
3.71 |
3.71 |
3.73 |
3.76 |
3.79 |
3.82 |
3.85 |
South Korea |
39.27 |
36.75 |
35.95 |
35.75 |
35.78 |
35.64 |
35.67 |
35.66 |
35.53 |
35.43 |
35.34 |
Corn |
|||||||||||
Taiwan |
8.73 |
8.64 |
8.79 |
8.82 |
9.00 |
9.00 |
9.05 |
9.11 |
9.25 |
9.32 |
9.40 |
Corn |
|||||||||||
Barley |
1.31 |
1.32 |
1.35 |
1.37 |
1.41 |
1.44 |
1.46 |
1.49 |
1.52 |
1.54 |
1.56 |
Thailand |
1.53 |
1.45 |
1.44 |
1.42 |
1.42 |
1.42 |
1.42 |
1.42 |
1.42 |
1.42 |
1.42 |
Corn |
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Ukraine |
15.22 |
15.24 |
15.12 |
15.09 |
15.18 |
15.20 |
15.27 |
15.34 |
15.47 |
15.60 |
15.74 |
Corn |
|||||||||||
Barley |
36.96 |
35.31 |
35.49 |
36.02 |
36.40 |
36.90 |
37.26 |
37.60 |
37.84 |
38.09 |
38.27 |
United States |
407.57 |
446.14 |
465.00 |
486.73 |
490.16 |
502.88 |
514.98 |
525.72 |
523.21 |
517.99 |
512.86 |
Corn |
|||||||||||
Barley |
11.46 |
11.83 |
11.80 |
11.71 |
11.63 |
11.54 |
11.44 |
11.32 |
11.22 |
11.11 |
11.00 |
Sorghum |
5.88 |
6.32 |
6.72 |
7.09 |
7.40 |
7.74 |
8.11 |
8.42 |
8.65 |
8.91 |
9.19 |
Vietnam |
13.93 |
14.07 |
14.19 |
14.26 |
14.27 |
14.29 |
14.32 |
14.36 |
14.41 |
14.45 |
14.50 |
Corn |
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‡ Countries included: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro.
† Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
WORLD OILSEEDS
AND PRODUCTS
220 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook
World Soybeans and Soybean Products
The world soybean price decreases by 21% in 2008/09 from the high prices of last year, driven by a supply expansion and weaker world demand. It continues to decline by 11% over the next season because of strong supplies and lower meal values. A slowdown in production expansion in South America and the U.S. and strengthening soybean meal demand due to the economic recovery stabilize the price for the remainder of the projection period. However, the soybean price is not expected to return to its historical levels for the remainder of the decade.
Because of weaker competition from corn in 2008/09, U.S. soybean production increased by 11% despite relatively weak yields. The increase in U.S. production pulled the world soybean output up by 5%, counteracting the sharp declines in production in Brazil and Paraguay. World production is expected to increase again by 5% in 2009/10 as yields return to trend levels in the U.S. and the main South American producing countries. Encouraged by relatively strong real prices, Brazil’s soybean area expansion is expected to post an average growth of 2.3% annually throughout the decade. However, the U.S. remains the leading producer over the projection period. World production reaches 295 mmt at the end of the outlook period and is concentrated in Argentina, Brazil,
and the U.S. By 2018/19, the U.S. holds a 32% share while Brazil and Argentina contribute 32% and 22% of production, respectively.
Declining crop area, which is the result of falling real domestic prices and expanding urban uses, leads to almost stagnant soybean production in China. Meanwhile, robust economic growth encourages domestic consumption to increase by 42% over the baseline period. Policies favoring oilseed imports and domestic crush make China the world’s leading soybean importer. China expands its imports to 56 mmt, accounting for 59% of total world imports over the next 10 years. This strong demand for soybeans becomes a focus of attention for major exporting countries. Brazil and the U.S. dominate the soybean net exports market. Brazil surpasses the U.S. to become the
largest soybean net exporter in 2014/15, and the difference increases by the end of the period. Brazil’s export share reaches 44% by the end of the decade while the U.S. share of world soybean net exports is projected to decline to 32% in 2018/19. Soybean imports by the EU decline over time, as the block shifts its demand toward meal.
The price of soybean meal also declines sharply during 2008/09 because of weak demand. Meal loses 18% of its value when compared to the previous season. Prices are expected to decline through the middle of the outlook period as production outpaces demand from livestock sectors around the world. Strengthening feed demand reverses the trend by the end of the projection period. China increases its consumption by 4.2% annually because of strong expansion in its livestock sector. U.S. domestic consumption expands by 17% over the next decade. The volume of net exports in the soybean meal market increases by 31% throughout the baseline. Argentina, the leading soybean meal net exporter, ships 98% of its production to the world market because of its differential export tax and low domestic demand. Argentina exports 36 mmt by 2018/19 and its market share grows to 52%. The EU remains by far the top net importer, accounting for 37% of world net imports.
In line with other commodities, the price of soybean oil declines by 35% in 2008/09. However, driven by strong demand for food and industrial uses, the soybean oil price starts to recover next season, before the turnaround of other products in the complex. Because of its income and population growth, China became the largest soybean oil consumer in 2006/07 and continues to increase its share, accounting for 33% by 2018/19. Because of their biodiesel mandates, Argentina and Brazil are expected to increase soybean oil industrial use by 51% and 74%, respectively, over the projection period. Exports are dominated by a few countries, but importers are diverse. Despite the domestic biodiesel mandate, Argentina still dominates world soybean oil exports, satisfying 62% of the world market. Brazil and the U.S. together account for 36% of world soybean oil net exports by 2018/19. China and India’s combined share of net imports is 46% of the world market.
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook / 221
Soybean Trade
|
08/09 |
09/10 |
10/11 |
11/12 |
12/13 |
13/14 |
14/15 |
15/16 |
16/17 |
17/18 |
18/19 |
Net Exporters |
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Metric Tons) |
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|
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||
Argentina |
11,865 |
13,609 |
13,272 |
12,893 |
12,632 |
12,482 |
12,521 |
12,658 |
12,848 |
13,079 |
13,346 |
Brazil |
25,200 |
23,220 |
24,773 |
26,401 |
28,509 |
30,759 |
33,103 |
35,489 |
37,794 |
40,009 |
42,214 |
Canada |
1,480 |
1,433 |
1,397 |
1,417 |
1,427 |
1,444 |
1,457 |
1,448 |
1,419 |
1,409 |
1,403 |
India |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
Other CIS † |
-300 |
-312 |
-299 |
-293 |
-287 |
-281 |
-273 |
-264 |
-254 |
-243 |
-230 |
Paraguay |
3,985 |
4,991 |
5,082 |
5,204 |
5,472 |
5,838 |
6,235 |
6,644 |
7,075 |
7,536 |
8,008 |
United States |
29,701 |
31,578 |
31,873 |
32,314 |
32,315 |
32,256 |
31,900 |
31,572 |
31,381 |
31,219 |
30,987 |
Total Net Exports * |
72,236 |
74,836 |
76,402 |
78,234 |
80,359 |
82,785 |
85,221 |
87,816 |
90,521 |
93,257 |
95,963 |
Net Importers |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
China |
35,550 |
37,290 |
39,375 |
41,346 |
43,266 |
45,327 |
47,408 |
49,549 |
51,789 |
54,081 |
56,379 |
European Union |
14,120 |
14,824 |
14,038 |
13,686 |
13,562 |
13,526 |
13,508 |
13,566 |
13,607 |
13,630 |
13,631 |
Japan |
4,000 |
3,932 |
3,830 |
3,706 |
3,666 |
3,655 |
3,644 |
3,640 |
3,637 |
3,632 |
3,620 |
Mexico |
3,585 |
3,464 |
3,482 |
3,522 |
3,550 |
3,586 |
3,614 |
3,618 |
3,619 |
3,617 |
3,616 |
South Korea |
1,260 |
1,272 |
1,274 |
1,274 |
1,275 |
1,280 |
1,281 |
1,287 |
1,299 |
1,311 |
1,335 |
Taiwan |
2,350 |
2,368 |
2,383 |
2,402 |
2,423 |
2,447 |
2,471 |
2,497 |
2,521 |
2,546 |
2,571 |
Rest of World |
9,820 |
10,124 |
10,469 |
10,754 |
11,081 |
11,433 |
11,773 |
12,144 |
12,545 |
12,946 |
13,330 |
Residual |
1,251 |
1,251 |
1,251 |
1,251 |
1,251 |
1,251 |
1,251 |
1,251 |
1,251 |
1,251 |
1,251 |
Total Net Imports |
72,236 |
74,836 |
76,402 |
78,234 |
80,359 |
82,785 |
85,221 |
87,816 |
90,521 |
93,257 |
95,963 |
Prices |
|
|
|
|
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) |
|
|
|
|
||
Illinois Processor |
368 |
346 |
348 |
358 |
366 |
375 |
383 |
389 |
391 |
392 |
394 |
CIF Rotterdam |
434 |
385 |
394 |
413 |
424 |
435 |
444 |
448 |
449 |
450 |
451 |
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* Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports.
† Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
222 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook
Soybean Meal Trade
|
08/09 |
09/10 |
10/11 |
11/12 |
12/13 |
13/14 |
14/15 |
15/16 |
16/17 |
17/18 |
18/19 |
Net Exporters |
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Metric Tons) |
|
|
|
|
||
Argentina |
27,368 |
28,815 |
30,369 |
31,587 |
32,520 |
33,340 |
33,985 |
34,579 |
35,177 |
35,718 |
36,257 |
Brazil |
12,245 |
13,373 |
13,781 |
13,493 |
13,394 |
13,337 |
13,337 |
13,319 |
13,280 |
13,241 |
13,190 |
China |
400 |
453 |
442 |
467 |
356 |
315 |
285 |
344 |
396 |
477 |
515 |
India |
4,798 |
5,016 |
5,274 |
5,507 |
5,715 |
5,871 |
6,015 |
6,150 |
6,277 |
6,403 |
6,522 |
Paraguay |
1,079 |
1,172 |
1,191 |
1,219 |
1,263 |
1,310 |
1,354 |
1,401 |
1,452 |
1,501 |
1,549 |
United States |
7,470 |
7,588 |
8,044 |
8,495 |
8,964 |
9,407 |
9,836 |
10,272 |
10,783 |
11,309 |
11,881 |
Total Net Exports * |
53,360 |
56,417 |
59,101 |
60,768 |
62,211 |
63,580 |
64,812 |
66,065 |
67,365 |
68,649 |
69,914 |
Net Importers |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Canada |
1,360 |
1,627 |
1,759 |
1,809 |
1,824 |
1,801 |
1,773 |
1,773 |
1,810 |
1,820 |
1,831 |
European Union |
22,450 |
23,755 |
24,759 |
24,959 |
25,144 |
25,299 |
25,372 |
25,421 |
25,522 |
25,647 |
25,781 |
Japan |
1,760 |
1,917 |
2,073 |
2,188 |
2,260 |
2,305 |
2,321 |
2,331 |
2,334 |
2,345 |
2,372 |
Mexico |
1,591 |
1,819 |
1,792 |
1,797 |
1,815 |
1,824 |
1,842 |
1,890 |
1,933 |
1,978 |
2,016 |
Other CIS † |
1,072 |
1,128 |
1,149 |
1,156 |
1,156 |
1,151 |
1,145 |
1,141 |
1,138 |
1,136 |
1,136 |
South Korea |
1,850 |
2,262 |
2,201 |
2,186 |
2,196 |
2,215 |
2,234 |
2,244 |
2,253 |
2,253 |
2,255 |
Taiwan |
3 |
116 |
164 |
209 |
220 |
233 |
240 |
251 |
259 |
268 |
275 |
Rest of World |
22,658 |
23,178 |
24,588 |
25,847 |
26,980 |
28,136 |
29,269 |
30,396 |
31,501 |
32,585 |
33,633 |
Residual |
616 |
616 |
616 |
616 |
616 |
616 |
616 |
616 |
616 |
616 |
616 |
Total Net Imports |
53,360 |
56,417 |
59,101 |
60,768 |
62,211 |
63,580 |
64,812 |
66,065 |
67,365 |
68,649 |
69,914 |
Prices |
|
|
|
|
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) |
|
|
|
|
||
FOB Decatur 48% |
328 |
294 |
282 |
278 |
280 |
285 |
290 |
293 |
292 |
291 |
290 |
CIF Rotterdam |
387 |
348 |
334 |
329 |
331 |
337 |
343 |
347 |
346 |
344 |
344 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
* Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
† Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan. |
|
||||||||||
Soybean Oil Trade |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
08/09 |
09/10 |
10/11 |
11/12 |
12/13 |
13/14 |
14/15 |
15/16 |
16/17 |
17/18 |
18/19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
Net Exporters |
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Metric Tons) |
|
|
|
|
||
Argentina |
5,650 |
5,501 |
5,883 |
6,125 |
6,313 |
6,501 |
6,658 |
6,817 |
6,989 |
7,149 |
7,312 |
Brazil |
2,090 |
2,058 |
2,148 |
2,191 |
2,173 |
2,191 |
2,211 |
2,251 |
2,317 |
2,384 |
2,446 |
Paraguay |
251 |
249 |
205 |
178 |
353 |
226 |
281 |
297 |
299 |
313 |
315 |
United States |
771 |
695 |
632 |
613 |
714 |
965 |
1,124 |
1,300 |
1,485 |
1,681 |
1,915 |
Total Net Exports * |
8,762 |
8,503 |
8,868 |
9,106 |
9,553 |
9,883 |
10,275 |
10,665 |
11,091 |
11,527 |
11,988 |
Net Importers |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Canada |
57 |
67 |
73 |
70 |
71 |
65 |
61 |
60 |
62 |
61 |
60 |
China |
2,300 |
2,312 |
2,390 |
2,519 |
2,771 |
2,963 |
3,171 |
3,390 |
3,632 |
3,880 |
4,133 |
European Union |
370 |
493 |
682 |
784 |
828 |
852 |
869 |
864 |
870 |
880 |
895 |
India |
640 |
322 |
433 |
492 |
591 |
695 |
816 |
943 |
1,076 |
1,208 |
1,346 |
Japan |
45 |
72 |
94 |
102 |
106 |
105 |
105 |
104 |
104 |
102 |
102 |
Mexico |
225 |
259 |
247 |
228 |
229 |
226 |
230 |
245 |
260 |
276 |
293 |
Other CIS † |
20 |
65 |
59 |
51 |
45 |
38 |
32 |
25 |
19 |
12 |
5 |
South Korea |
305 |
368 |
367 |
360 |
366 |
369 |
376 |
381 |
385 |
390 |
397 |
Taiwan |
52 |
58 |
47 |
45 |
49 |
51 |
56 |
62 |
63 |
65 |
68 |
Rest of World |
4,410 |
4,150 |
4,137 |
4,116 |
4,160 |
4,181 |
4,221 |
4,253 |
4,283 |
4,315 |
4,350 |
Residual |
338 |
338 |
338 |
338 |
338 |
338 |
338 |
338 |
338 |
338 |
338 |
Total Net Imports |
8,762 |
8,503 |
8,868 |
9,106 |
9,553 |
9,883 |
10,275 |
10,665 |
11,091 |
11,527 |
11,988 |
Prices |
|
|
|
|
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) |
|
|
|
|
||
FOB Decatur |
778 |
801 |
873 |
946 |
978 |
1,009 |
1,030 |
1,052 |
1,076 |
1,097 |
1,118 |
FOB Rotterdam |
856 |
881 |
959 |
1,038 |
1,072 |
1,105 |
1,128 |
1,151 |
1,177 |
1,200 |
1,222 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
* Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports.
† Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook / 223
World Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization
|
08/09 |
09/10 |
10/11 |
11/12 |
12/13 |
13/14 |
14/15 |
15/16 |
16/17 |
17/18 |
18/19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
Soybeans |
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Hectares) |
|
|
|
|
||
Area Harvested |
97,785 |
98,896 |
100,214 |
101,622 |
102,969 |
104,307 |
105,505 |
106,751 |
108,068 |
109,316 |
110,506 |
|
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Metric Tons) |
|
|
|
|
||
Production |
232,792 |
243,403 |
248,725 |
254,555 |
260,321 |
266,213 |
271,762 |
277,594 |
283,749 |
289,787 |
295,611 |
Beginning Stocks |
53,100 |
53,530 |
55,489 |
55,601 |
55,479 |
55,501 |
55,507 |
55,518 |
55,620 |
55,851 |
56,099 |
Domestic Supply |
285,892 |
296,933 |
304,214 |
310,156 |
315,801 |
321,714 |
327,268 |
333,112 |
339,369 |
345,638 |
351,710 |
Crush |
200,707 |
208,948 |
215,648 |
221,490 |
226,873 |
232,596 |
237,951 |
243,437 |
249,142 |
254,850 |
260,450 |
Food Use |
14,481 |
14,824 |
15,010 |
15,109 |
15,230 |
15,320 |
15,402 |
15,506 |
15,635 |
15,754 |
15,855 |
Other Use |
15,923 |
16,420 |
16,704 |
16,826 |
16,946 |
17,040 |
17,147 |
17,298 |
17,489 |
17,684 |
17,856 |
Residual |
1,251 |
1,251 |
1,251 |
1,251 |
1,251 |
1,251 |
1,251 |
1,251 |
1,251 |
1,251 |
1,251 |
Ending Stocks |
53,530 |
55,489 |
55,601 |
55,479 |
55,501 |
55,507 |
55,518 |
55,620 |
55,851 |
56,099 |
56,298 |
Domestic Use |
285,892 |
296,932 |
304,214 |
310,155 |
315,801 |
321,714 |
327,268 |
333,112 |
339,369 |
345,638 |
351,709 |
Trade * |
72,236 |
74,836 |
76,402 |
78,234 |
80,359 |
82,785 |
85,221 |
87,816 |
90,521 |
93,257 |
95,963 |
Soybean Meal |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
158,031 |
164,499 |
169,779 |
174,390 |
178,641 |
183,160 |
187,389 |
191,722 |
196,228 |
200,737 |
205,161 |
Consumption |
157,944 |
163,225 |
168,838 |
173,611 |
177,949 |
182,507 |
186,743 |
191,048 |
195,513 |
200,025 |
204,462 |
Ending Stocks |
5,653 |
6,311 |
6,636 |
6,799 |
6,875 |
6,912 |
6,942 |
7,000 |
7,099 |
7,195 |
7,278 |
Trade * |
53,360 |
56,417 |
59,101 |
60,768 |
62,211 |
63,580 |
64,812 |
66,065 |
67,365 |
68,649 |
69,914 |
Soybean Oil |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
37,317 |
38,954 |
40,306 |
41,502 |
42,617 |
43,801 |
44,922 |
46,076 |
47,279 |
48,491 |
49,690 |
Consumption |
37,180 |
38,792 |
40,042 |
41,175 |
42,376 |
43,418 |
44,576 |
45,753 |
46,953 |
48,163 |
49,353 |
Ending Stocks |
2,547 |
2,371 |
2,297 |
2,287 |
2,189 |
2,234 |
2,243 |
2,228 |
2,216 |
2,206 |
2,205 |
Trade * |
8,762 |
8,503 |
8,868 |
9,106 |
9,553 |
9,883 |
10,275 |
10,665 |
11,091 |
11,527 |
11,988 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(Kilograms) |
|
|
|
|
|
Per Capita Consumption |
5.48 |
5.65 |
5.76 |
5.86 |
5.96 |
6.04 |
6.13 |
6.23 |
6.32 |
6.42 |
6.51 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
* Excludes intraregional trade.
224 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization
|
08/09 |
09/10 |
10/11 |
11/12 |
12/13 |
13/14 |
14/15 |
15/16 |
16/17 |
17/18 |
18/19 |
Soybeans |
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Hectares) |
|
|
|
|
||
Area Harvested |
30,207 |
29,930 |
30,071 |
30,379 |
30,541 |
30,669 |
30,657 |
30,655 |
30,765 |
30,894 |
31,011 |
|
|
|
|
|
(Metric Tons per Hectare) |
|
|
|
|
||
Yield |
2.67 |
2.81 |
2.83 |
2.86 |
2.88 |
2.91 |
2.93 |
2.96 |
2.99 |
3.02 |
3.04 |
|
|
|
|
|
(Thousand Metric Tons) |
|
|
|
|
||
Production |
80,537 |
84,071 |
85,122 |
86,784 |
88,024 |
89,200 |
89,912 |
90,746 |
91,940 |
93,201 |
94,304 |
Beginning Stocks |
5,580 |
5,710 |
6,422 |
6,382 |
6,222 |
6,135 |
6,097 |
6,042 |
5,988 |
5,993 |
6,030 |
Domestic Supply |
86,117 |
89,781 |
91,544 |
93,166 |
94,247 |
95,335 |
96,009 |
96,789 |
97,928 |
99,194 |
100,334 |
Crush |
46,218 |
47,039 |
48,392 |
49,694 |
50,855 |
52,049 |
53,132 |
54,269 |
55,544 |
56,870 |
58,154 |
Seed, Residual |
4,488 |
4,742 |
4,897 |
4,936 |
4,941 |
4,934 |
4,935 |
4,960 |
5,011 |
5,074 |
5,127 |
Ending Stocks |
5,710 |
6,422 |
6,382 |
6,222 |
6,135 |
6,097 |
6,042 |
5,988 |
5,993 |
6,030 |
6,067 |
Domestic Use |
56,416 |
58,203 |
59,671 |
60,853 |
61,931 |
63,079 |
64,109 |
65,217 |
66,548 |
67,975 |
69,347 |
Net Trade |
29,701 |
31,578 |
31,873 |
32,314 |
32,315 |
32,256 |
31,900 |
31,572 |
31,381 |
31,219 |
30,987 |
Soybean Meal |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
36,585 |
37,235 |
38,306 |
39,337 |
40,256 |
41,201 |
42,058 |
42,959 |
43,968 |
45,018 |
46,034 |
Beginning Stocks |
267 |
276 |
270 |
281 |
289 |
292 |
294 |
294 |
293 |
294 |
296 |
Domestic Supply |
36,852 |
37,512 |
38,577 |
39,618 |
40,545 |
41,493 |
42,352 |
43,252 |
44,261 |
45,312 |
46,329 |
Consumption |
29,106 |
29,653 |
30,252 |
30,834 |
31,290 |
31,793 |
32,222 |
32,688 |
33,183 |
33,707 |
34,151 |
Ending Stocks |
276 |
270 |
281 |
289 |
292 |
294 |
294 |
293 |
294 |
296 |
297 |
Domestic Use |
29,382 |
29,923 |
30,533 |
31,123 |
31,582 |
32,086 |
32,516 |
32,981 |
33,477 |
34,003 |
34,448 |
Net Trade |
7,470 |
7,588 |
8,044 |
8,495 |
8,964 |
9,407 |
9,836 |
10,272 |
10,783 |
11,309 |
11,881 |
Soybean Oil |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
8,837 |
8,994 |
9,253 |
9,502 |
9,724 |
9,952 |
10,159 |
10,377 |
10,621 |
10,874 |
11,120 |
Beginning Stocks |
1,126 |
956 |
771 |
714 |
685 |
682 |
682 |
683 |
666 |
649 |
635 |
Domestic Supply |
9,963 |
9,950 |
10,024 |
10,216 |
10,409 |
10,634 |
10,842 |
11,059 |
11,286 |
11,523 |
11,755 |
Food Use |
6,794 |
6,818 |
6,745 |
6,647 |
6,666 |
6,692 |
6,741 |
6,786 |
6,835 |
6,890 |
6,951 |
Biodiesel Use |
1,443 |
1,665 |
1,934 |
2,271 |
2,348 |
2,294 |
2,295 |
2,308 |
2,317 |
2,317 |
2,266 |
Ending Stocks |
956 |
771 |
714 |
685 |
682 |
682 |
683 |
666 |
649 |
635 |
623 |
Domestic Use |
9,192 |
9,255 |
9,392 |
9,603 |
9,696 |
9,669 |
9,718 |
9,760 |
9,801 |
9,842 |
9,839 |
Net Trade |
771 |
695 |
632 |
613 |
714 |
965 |
1,124 |
1,300 |
1,485 |
1,681 |
1,915 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|