OutlookPub2009
.pdfCharts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook / 15
U.S. Biofuel Use Mandates
Billion Gallons
30 |
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25 |
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20 |
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15 |
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10 |
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5 |
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0 |
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2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
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Conventional |
Advanced |
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U.S. Conservation Reserve Program Area
Million Acres
40 |
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35 |
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30 |
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25 |
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20 |
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15 |
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10 |
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5 |
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0 |
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2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
16 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Crop Planted Area
Million Acres
100 |
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90 |
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80 |
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70 |
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60 |
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50 |
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98/99 |
00/01 |
02/03 |
04/05 |
06/07 |
08/09 |
10/11 |
12/13 |
14/15 |
16/17 |
18/19 |
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Wheat |
Corn |
Soybeans |
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U.S. Crop Exports
Billion Bushels
3.0 |
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2.5 |
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2.0 |
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1.5 |
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1.0 |
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0.5 |
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0.0 |
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98/99 |
00/01 |
02/03 |
04/05 |
06/07 |
08/09 |
10/11 |
12/13 |
14/15 |
16/17 |
18/19 |
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Wheat |
Corn |
Soybeans |
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Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook / 17
U.S. Crop Prices
Dollars per Bushel
12 |
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10 |
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8 |
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6 |
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4 |
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2 |
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0 |
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98/99 |
00/01 |
02/03 |
04/05 |
06/07 |
08/09 |
10/11 |
12/13 |
14/15 |
16/17 |
18/19 |
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Wheat |
Corn |
Soybeans |
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U.S. Feed and Residual Disappearance
Million Metric Tons
250
200 |
150 |
100
50
0
98/99 |
00/01 |
02/03 |
04/05 |
06/07 |
08/09 |
10/11 |
12/13 |
14/15 |
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Corn |
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Corn By-Products |
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Other Grains |
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Oilseed Meals |
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16/17 |
18/19 |
18 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Biofuel Production
Billion Gallons
20 |
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16 |
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12 |
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8 |
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4 |
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2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
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Corn-based |
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Other ethanol |
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Biodiesel |
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U.S. Farm-Level Prices Paid Indices
Index, 1990-1992=100 |
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450 |
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400 |
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350 |
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300 |
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250 |
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200 |
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150 |
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100 |
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50 |
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0 |
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1998 |
2000 |
2002 |
2004 |
2006 |
2008 |
2010 |
2012 |
2014 |
2016 |
2018 |
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Fertilizer |
Fuel |
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Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook / 19
U.S. Cattle and Barrow and Gilt Prices
Dollars per cwt
120 |
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100 |
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80 |
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60 |
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40 |
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20 |
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0 |
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1998 |
2000 |
2002 |
2004 |
2006 |
2008 |
2010 |
2012 |
2014 |
2016 |
2018 |
Barrows and Gilts, Nat'l Base* NB Direct Fed Steers * National Base 51% - 52% Lean Equivalent
U.S. Poultry Wholesale Prices
Cents per Pound
100 |
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90 |
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80 |
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70 |
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60 |
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50 |
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40 |
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1998 |
2000 |
2002 |
2004 |
2006 |
2008 |
2010 |
2012 |
2014 |
2016 |
2018 |
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12-City Broiler |
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Eastern Region Turkey |
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20 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Livestock Production
Billion Pounds
45 |
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40 |
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35 |
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30 |
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25 |
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20 |
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15 |
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10 |
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1998 |
2000 |
2002 |
2004 |
2006 |
2008 |
2010 |
2012 |
2014 |
2016 |
2018 |
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Beef |
Pork |
|
Broilers |
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U.S. Meat Net Exports
Billion Pounds
10 |
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8 |
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6 |
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4 |
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2 |
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0 |
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-2 |
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-4 |
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1998 |
2000 |
2002 |
2004 |
2006 |
2008 |
2010 |
2012 |
2014 |
2016 |
2018 |
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Beef |
Pork |
Broilers |
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Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook / 21
U.S. Milk Production
Billion Pounds
220 |
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210 |
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200 |
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190 |
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180 |
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170 |
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160 |
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150 |
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140 |
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1998 |
2000 |
2002 |
2004 |
2006 |
2008 |
2010 |
2012 |
2014 |
2016 |
2018 |
U.S. Milk Prices
Dollars per cwt
20 |
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18 |
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16 |
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14 |
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12 |
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10 |
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8 |
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1998 |
2000 |
2002 |
2004 |
2006 |
2008 |
2010 |
2012 |
2014 |
2016 |
2018 |
Class III |
Class IV |
All Milk |
22 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Land Use
Million Acres
380 |
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360 |
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340 |
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320 |
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300 |
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280 |
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260 |
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240 |
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220 |
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200 |
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1998 |
2000 |
2002 |
2004 |
2006 |
2008 |
2010 |
2012 |
2014 |
2016 |
2018 |
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13 Crop Planted Area |
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13 Crops + Hay |
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13 Crops + Hay + CRP |
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Mandatory U.S. Government Outlays, Fiscal Year
Billion Dollars
40 |
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35 |
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30 |
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25 |
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20 |
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15 |
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10 |
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5 |
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0 |
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98/99 |
00/01 |
02/03 |
04/05 |
06/07 |
08/09 |
10/11 |
12/13 |
14/15 |
16/17 |
18/19 |
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Net CCC Outlays |
NRCS Conservation |
Crop Insurance |
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Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook / 23
U.S. Farm Income
Billion Dollars
120 |
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100 |
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80 |
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60 |
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40 |
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20 |
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0 |
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1998 |
2000 |
2002 |
2004 |
2006 |
2008 |
2010 |
2012 |
2014 |
2016 |
2018 |
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Net Farm |
|
Real NFI (1997$) |
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U.S. Consumer Price Index for Food
Percent *
6.0 |
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5.0 |
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4.0 |
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3.0 |
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2.0 |
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1.0 |
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0.0 |
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1998 |
2000 |
2002 |
2004 |
2006 |
2008 |
2010 |
2012 |
2014 |
2016 |
2018 |
* Percentage increase in CPI for food vs. previous year.
24 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook
World Wheat Stocks-to-Use Ratio Versus Price
Dollars per Metric Ton |
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Percent |
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400 |
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40 |
300 |
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30 |
200 |
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20 |
100 |
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10 |
0 |
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0 |
2000/01 |
2002/03 |
2004/05 |
2006/07 |
2008/09 |
2010/11 |
2012/13 |
2014/15 |
2016/17 |
2018/19 |
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U.S. FOB Gulf Price |
Stocks-to-Use Ratio |
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World Wheat Net Trade and U.S. Market Share
Million Metric Tons |
Percent |
|
150 |
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40 |
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30 |
100 |
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20 |
50 |
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10 |
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0 |
2000/01 |
2002/03 |
2004/05 |
2006/07 |
2008/09 |
2010/11 |
2012/13 |
2014/15 |
2016/17 |
2018/19 |
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Net Trade |
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U.S. Market Share |
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