The north-south divide

If one looks at living standards and expectations in recent years, they clearly show that the south east, south, south west, East Anglia and the East Midlands tend to do much better than the peripheral areas. Mutual prejudice between a complacent population in the south and a proud but aggrieved one in the north persists. Precisely where the dividing line between north and south runs is a matter of opinion, but probably few would argue with a line from the Humber across to the Severn Estuary (the border between South Wales and England).

The divide goes well beyond mere prejudice. A survey of comparative prosperity in the 280 towns of Britain in 1990 showed the divide very clearly. The most northerly of the ten most prosperous towns was Stratford-on-Avon in the Midlands. The most southerly of the poorest towns was still north of Nottingham. By 1995 male unemployment in Glasgow had risen to 25 per cent. Men in the south east earn the most and work the shortest week. The south east accounts for more than one-third of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United Kingdom. The average earnings in the south east in the mid-1990s were 14 per cent above the national average. Those in Northern Ireland, Wales and the north of England were 10 per cent below the average. The north of England had the lowest average weekly wages, and the second highest regional unemployment level. Northern Ireland had the highest. From time to time the divide seems less clear, but it has always been there.

The divide is noticeable in other ways, for example in health. Death rates are highest in Scotland, followed by the north and north-west regions of England, and are lowest in the south east and East Anglia. The northern population generally is more subject to heart disease and cancer. People in the north tend to smoke and drink more heavily than in the south. The Scots, for example, spend about one-third more on smoking than the national average. The north west is the only English region where women outnumber men smokers. Such things are symptomatic of the greater stress and larder social conditions of life in the north. The difference is also seen in the rates of unemployment. The average rate of unemployment in 1996 was 7.5 per cent, but it varied between 5.8 per cent in East Anglia and 11.3 per cent in Northern Ireland.

Inevitably, the existence of greater employment opportunities encouraged many in the north to seek work in the south. On the whole those most successful in their search were also the best qualified. Although this may relieve short-term unemployment, it also drains depressed areas of their most talented people. Take for example Stranraer, the main town in the far south-west part Scotland. It has no higher education facility thin 50 miles (80 km). Those who go on to any form of further education after secondary school are unlikely to return. In other words, the whole district is annually stripped of its brightest young people. Without their talent it is difficult to see how the depressed periphery can be revived.

Why do not more people move in search of work? Apart from personal reasons, there is a significant economic barrier. Housing and rents are much more expensive in the south, and there are long waiting lists for public sector housing there. Generally, only young single people feel free to take the risks involved.

There are plenty of exceptions to the view of prosperity in the south and of depression in the north, where many firms are making a great success in unpromising circumstances. The largest shopping centre in Europe in 1990 was the Metrocentre in Gateshead, Newcastle, the achievement of a proud Northerner, John Hall. It is a symbol of the regional regeneration and rebirth of provincial pride that he and many other northern businessmen believe in. It is not only Northerners who believe in the north. In the 1990s Newcastle University was among the most popular for students. Newcastle was viewed as a 'cool' city. Leading Japanese firms have chosen periphery areas for major investment, for example Toyota in Wales, and Nissan in Sunderland. There are also plenty of prosperous localities within an overall depressed region. Leeds, for example, boasted the fastest growing economy in England in 1990, with 50 major projects generating 12,000 jobs. The showpiece of Leeds's revival is its old shopping arcades, now revamped and renamed the Victoria Quarter.

However, there are not enough successes to reverse the overall trend. The impression of a more impoverished north persists. In the mid-1990s Yorkshire and Humberside had the worst rate of absenteeism, or truanting, from school. The north of England had the worst school examination results in Britain. The north west of England had the highest rate of births outside marriage, and the lowest proportion of 16-year-olds still in school. In Wales over 20 per cent of the population depended upon some form of state benefit. All these facts indicate profound social and economic problems. Indeed, by the year 2000 the north west will have lost 222,000 jobs, representing a fall in its share of national employment from 10.1 per cent to 8.8 per cent since 1985. Unemployment in the north generally is likely to remain three times higher than in the south for some time to come. People will continue to 'vote with their feet' by moving to more prosperous areas.

The theory that businesses will relocate in the north because of cheaper labour and site costs is not borne out by experience. In practice, businesses fear they will have difficulties in recruiting qualified people, a reasonable expectation if almost half of all 16-year-olds in the north leave school without seeking further training. There is great reluctance among most employees working in the south to move to the north. If their business relocates they are more likely to resign than move. Businesses prefer to seek a cheap site somewhere else in the south. Because Britain's financial sector is concentrated in London, businesses in the north find it difficult to obtain capital. It is much harder to persuade a banker of the merits of a venture by fax or e-mail than over lunch. Many northern businessmen would argue there is an urgent need for the decentralisation of the local financial sector to encourage local business. In the meantime, of those companies in the north which chose to relocate, over half have tended to move to the south.

It is questionable whether even the south really < benefits from the growing regional imbalance, since in return for economic prosperity the environment is degraded by very high population concentrations, heavy air pollution and road traffic, and urban development. It will only change if government returns to the policy generally applied up to 1979 of providing incentives for economic growth in the underdeveloped areas, and discouragements from further concentration in the south.

Yet if one measures the quality of life to include other factors, for example neighbourliness, schools, cultural facilities, crowding, crime levels, tranquility and a pleasant environment, a different pattern emerges. One must modify ideas of a north-south divide.