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Gazprom

Gazprom Neft

We believe Gazprom Neft will be one of the beneficiaries of the 2019 tax changes in the Russian oil sector, mainly because of the conversion of its core Novoport field taxation into the EPT regime. Benefiting from above-average production growth (we estimate total hydrocarbon production, including associates, will increase by 3.8% in 2019) and tight cost control, Gazprom Neft has delivered stronger-than-expected FCF, with our FCF outlook remaining positive despite its elevated capex programme. We believe the company’s dividend payout ratio could increase from 35% (for 9M18), with our 50% expectation for 2020 reflecting a yield of 7.1%. We maintain our HOLD rating with a 6% higher TP of RUB380.

Strong production growth and fiscal support

We estimate Gazprom Neft will increase its total hydrocarbon output (including associates) by 3.8% in 2019, with a 4.7% increase in liquids production driven by Novoport, Prirazlomnoye and Kuyumba fields. We believe this growth will be supported by the company’s positive exposure to 2019 tax changes in the Russian oil sector, mainly related to the conversion of its core Novoport field taxation into the EPT regime, although we also estimate that Gazprom Neft will be one of the beneficiaries of the oil tax manoeuvre. Strong production and fiscal support should allow Gazprom Neft to maintain positive FCF to equity despite an extended capex cycle, we estimate.

Highest level of exposure to anti-Russian sanctions

Among the domestic oil & gas producers, Gazprom Neft has the highest level of exposure to anti-Russian sanctions. This has not affected the company’s ability to fund itself, but its more complex technologically intensive exploration and development projects – often in partnership with foreign oil companies – have been suspended, limiting future production and reserve upside.

Dividend upside

We believe the company’s dividend payout ratio could increase from 35% (for 9M18), with our 50% expectation for 2020 reflecting a yield of 7.1%.

Company update

HOLD (maintained)

TP: RUB380 (previously RUB360)

Oil & Gas Russia

Report date:

14 December 2018

Current price, RUB

 

366.7

Upside/downside, %

 

3.6

MktCap, $mn

 

26,167.7

Average daily volume, RUBmn

149.7

Free float, RUBmn

 

66,589.7

Bloomberg

 

SIBN RX

 

 

 

Summary valuation and financials, RUBbn (unless otherwise stated)

 

 

2017

2018E

2019E

2020E

Revenue

1,858

2,376

2,391

2,442

EBITDA

444

642

489

507

Net income

253

379

243

246

Net debt

602

524

592

641

EPS, RUB

53.7

80.3

51.5

52.2

DPS, RUB

15.0

32.1

25.7

26.1

EV/Sales, x

1.2

0.9

0.9

0.9

EV/EBITDA, x

5.1

3.5

4.6

4.4

P/E, x

6.8

4.6

7.1

7.0

Net debt/EBITDA, x

1.4

0.8

1.2

1.3

Dividend yield, %

4.1

8.8

7.0

7.1

FCF yield, %

4.5

11.7

4.4

3.9

RoIC, %

5.6

7.1

4.5

4.4

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Figure 69: Price performance – 52 weeks

 

RUB

 

 

SIBN RX

 

 

 

 

 

 

450

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

400

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

350

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

300

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

250

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

200

Jan-18

 

Mar-18

 

May-18

Jun-18

Jul-18

 

 

 

 

 

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Aug-18

Sep-18

Oct-18

Nov-18

Dec-18

Source: Bloomberg

vk.com/id446425943

Renaissance Capital

14 December 2018

Gazprom Neft

Figure 70: Gazprom Neft liquids production growth rate vs Russian average

15.0%

 

Russia

Gazprom Neft

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

-5.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

-10.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jan-14

Sep-14

May-15

Jan-16

Sep-16

May-17

Jan-18

Sep-18

Figure 71: Gazprom Neft total tax breaks (MET + export duty)

Total tax break (lhs), RUBbn Total % tax break (rhs)

Average % tax break for Russia (rhs)

300

 

 

 

 

35%

250

 

 

 

 

30%

 

 

 

 

 

200

 

 

 

 

25%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

20%

150

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

15%

100

 

 

 

 

10%

 

 

 

 

 

50

 

 

 

 

5%

 

 

 

 

 

-

 

 

 

 

0%

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018E

2020E

Source: CDU TEK, Renaissance Capital

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Figure 72: Sanctions imposed on Russian oil & gas companies

 

US

 

EU

Canada

 

Financial

Sectoral Financial

Sectoral

Financial

Sectoral

Rosneft

Gazprom

 

 

Gazprom Neft

LUKOIL

 

Surgutneftegas

 

NOVATEK

 

 

 

 

 

Tatneft

 

 

 

 

Bashneft*

 

 

 

 

Transneft

 

 

 

* Bashneft is majority owned by Rosneft

Source: Renaissance Capital

Figure 73: Gazprom Neft – sources and uses of funds, $bn

 

CFFO

 

Divestments

 

 

 

 

 

Capex and investments

 

Interest

 

 

 

 

 

Dividends

 

FCF to equity

 

 

15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(5)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(10)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018E

2019E

2020E

2021E

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Figure 74: Gazprom Neft – FCF bridge 2018E, $bn

 

 

 

 

Figure 75: Gazprom Neft – FCF bridge 2019E, $bn

 

 

 

 

10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(2)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CFFO 2017

WC

Other

CFFO 2018

 

Capex

FCF 2018

Interest

Dividends 2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CFFO 2018

WC

Other

CFFO 2019

 

Capex

FCF 2019

Interest

Dividends 2019

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

 

 

 

 

 

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

41

vk.com/id446425943

Renaissance Capital

14 December 2018

Gazprom Neft

Figure 76: Gazprom Neft – operating and financial summary

Operating statistics

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018E

2019E

2020E

Crude oil production, mnt

51

52

56

60

62

64

67

68

Gas production, bcm

14.6

17.7

29.9

32.8

34.0

24.6

24.9

24.8

Total hydrocarbon production, mn boe

455

484

582

630

656

610

633

639

Refining throughput, mnt

43

43

43

42

40

42

42

42

Income statement, RUBbn

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018E

2019E

2020E

Gross revenue

1,268

1,408

1,468

1,546

1,858

2,376

2,391

2,442

Operating expenses

(1,045)

(1,187)

(1,262)

(1,307)

(1,555)

(1,923)

(2,110)

(2,154)

EBITDA

299

307

320

368

444

642

489

507

EBITDA margin

24%

22%

22%

24%

24%

27%

20%

21%

EBIT

222

221

206

238

303

453

281

288

EBIT margin

18%

16%

14%

15%

16%

19%

12%

12%

Financial items

4

(75)

(61)

21

23

37

43

41

Profit before tax

226

146

145

260

325

490

324

329

Net income

178

122

110

200

253

379

243

246

Average number of shares outstanding, mn

4,718

4,718

4,718

4,718

4,718

4,718

4,718

4,718

EPS, RUB per share

37.71

25.88

23.24

42.43

53.68

80.34

51.49

52.23

DPS, RUB per share

9.38

6.47

6.47

10.68

15.00

32.14

25.74

26.11

Payout ratio, %

24.9

25.0

27.8

25.2

27.9

40.0

50.0

50.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Growth rates, %

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total hydrocarbon production

5.7

6.4

20.3

8.2

4.1

(7.0)

3.8

0.9

Revenue

(15.2)

11.1

4.2

5.3

20.2

27.9

0.6

2.1

EPS

1.6

(31.4)

(10.2)

82.5

26.5

49.7

(35.9)

1.4

DPS

0.9

(31.0)

(0.0)

65.1

40.4

114.2

(19.9)

1.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Balance sheet, RUBbn

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018E

2019E

2020E

Current assets

433

471

511

396

423

600

537

494

Non-current assets

1,131

1,627

1,975

2,152

2,507

2,782

2,920

3,049

Total assets

1,564

2,098

2,485

2,549

2,930

3,383

3,457

3,542

Current liabilities

208

251

349

289

479

469

487

484

Long-term liabilities

358

717

888

815

792

841

841

841

Minorities

45

64

91

84

106

131

147

164

Equity

953

1,066

1,157

1,360

1,553

1,942

1,982

2,055

Total equity and liabilities

1,564

2,098

2,485

2,549

2,930

3,383

3,457

3,542

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash-flow statement, RUBbn

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018E

2019E

2020E

Net income

226

146

145

260

325

490

324

329

DD&A

77

86

114

130

141

189

208

219

Other

(34)

59

7

(83)

(97)

(139)

(124)

(123)

Changes in working capital

8

(6)

18

15

53

(13)

13

(9)

Cash flow from operations

277

284

285

321

422

527

421

415

Cash flow used for investments

(256)

(365)

(315)

(324)

(313)

(303)

(337)

(343)

Cash flow used for/from financing

(13)

11

82

(68)

(51)

(148)

(152)

(121)

Effect of exchange rate changes

4

32

8

(10)

(1)

7

-

-

Cash flow for the year

12

(38)

61

(81)

57

82

(68)

(49)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Key data

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018E

2019E

2020E

Net debt/(cash), RUBbn

167

431

639

601

602

524

592

641

Net debt/equity, %

17.5

40.5

55.2

44.2

38.7

27.0

29.8

31.2

RoE, %

19

11

9

15

16

20

12

12

RoIC, %

7

4

3

5

6

7

4

4

RoACE, %

17

9

8

11

13

16

10

10

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

42

vk.com/id446425943

Tatneft

Tatneft’s recently announced 2030 Strategy promises accelerated production growth and delays full commissioning of the TANECO refinery compared with our previous expectations. A 60% stated increase in the company’s 2019 capex will pressure its FCF and dividend payouts next year, we estimate, with our estimated sustainable dividend payout ratio of 50% resulting in 2019 dividend yields of 5.5% for commons (HOLD) and 7.8% for prefs (BUY). We increase our TP by 1% to RUB750 (from RUB740).

Accelerated production growth

We estimate Tatneft’s 2018-2021 CAGR in crude production at 3.6% (vs just 2.5% in the past three years), driven by improved recovery from its core assets in Tatarstan, as well as gains in the production of highly viscous crude. Tatneft remains an outlier among Russian oil companies, with exceptionally low organic decline rates (3% in 2017 vs a Russian average of 14%, driven by the peculiarities of its super-giant Romashkinskoye field). This means it has the lowest capex requirements in the sector, supporting our strong dividend outlook.

TANECO continues to improve, although slower than previously expected

The launch of gasoline production at the TANECO refinery should improve the company’s downstream margins in 2019 as well as increase throughput by 16% YoY. With 11 more units remaining to be commissioned, TANECO should reach full capacity in 2029, according to the recently released 2030 Strategy, four years later than previously expected.

We estimate a sustainable payout ratio of 50% at $60/bl Brent

In our view, Tatneft has demonstrated an exemplary improvement in dividend payouts, with payout ratios of 75% in 2017 and 9M18, as well as two interim dividends declared during 2018. We believe that the strength of the company’s underlying business model should enable it to maintain a high dividend payout ratio into the future, although the stated increase in capex plans provides for a sustainable payout ratio of 50% (under $60/bl real Brent oil price forecast), we estimate, with additional upside coming from stronger commodity prices. This estimate translates into 2019 dividend yields of 5.5% and 7.8% for Tatneft’s commons and prefs, we estimate.

Company updateRen issance Capital HOLD/BUY 8 December 2017

(comm/pref; maintained)Gazprom Neft TP: RUB750

(comm/pref; previously RUB740)

Oil & Gas Russia

Report date:

14 December 2018

Current price, RUB

 

760.0 / 540.3

Upside/downside, %

 

-1.3 / 39.0

MktCap, $mn

 

25,373.2

Average daily volume, RUBmn

1,235.6

Free float, RUBmn

 

1,139,840.7

Bloomberg

 

TATN RX / TATNP RX

 

 

 

Summary valuation and financials, RUBbn (unless otherwise stated)

 

 

 

2017

2018E

2019E

2020E

Revenue

773

1,021

972

946

EBITDA

187

325

282

271

Net income

123

237

194

180

Net debt

4

(81)

(6)

0

EPS, RUB

54.7

105.4

86.2

80.0

DPS, RUB

39.9

71.8

41.9

38.9

EV/Sales, x

2.1

1.6

1.7

1.7

EV/EBITDA, x

8.8

5.1

5.9

6.1

P/E, x

14.1

7.3

8.9

9.6

Net debt/EBITDA, x

0.0

-0.3

0.0

0.0

Div yield (ord), %

5.3

9.4

5.5

5.1

Div yield (pref), %

7.4

13.3

7.8

7.2

FCF yield, %

6.1

10.3

5.3

5.3

RoIC, %

29.3

21.3

17.8

16.0

 

 

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Figure 77: Price performance – 52 weeks, RUB

 

 

 

Pref discount (rhs)

 

 

TATN RX Equity

 

 

 

 

TATNP RX Equity

1,000

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

50%

800

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

40%

600

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

30%

400

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

20%

200

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10%

0

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

May-18

Jun-18

Jul-18

 

 

Oct-18

 

0%

Dec-17

Aug-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Dec-18

Source: Bloomberg

vk.com/id446425943

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Renaissance Capital

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

14 December 2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tatneft

Figure 78: Organic decline rates by company

 

 

 

 

Figure 79: Tatneft dividend dynamics

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tatneft

 

 

Gazprom Neft

 

TNK-BP

 

 

Dividend (lhs), RUB/share

 

 

Preferred dividend yield, rhs

Surgutneftegaz

 

LUKOIL

 

 

Rosneft

 

 

Ordinary dividend yield, rhs

 

 

 

 

 

 

Russia, average

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

80

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

71.8

14%

5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

70

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

60

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10%

-5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

39.9

 

8%

-10%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

40

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

-15%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

30

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

22.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

-20%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10.6

11.0

 

 

 

 

-25%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6.6

 

7.1

8.6

8.2

 

 

 

2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10

4.4

5.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

-30%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0%

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018E

2017

 

-35%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: Company data, CDU TEK, Interfax, Renaissance Capital estimates

Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates

Figure 80: Preferred shares discount/(premium) to common

Sberbank

 

Surgutneftegas

 

Tatneft

 

 

60%

40%

 

 

 

 

20%

 

 

 

 

0%

 

 

 

 

-20%

 

 

 

 

-40%

 

 

 

 

-60%

 

 

 

 

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Source: Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital

Figure 81: Tatneft – sources and uses of funds, $bn

 

 

 

CFFO

 

Divestments

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Capex and investments

 

Interest

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dividends

 

FCF to equity

 

 

 

6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(2)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(4)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(6)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018E

2019E

2020E

2021E

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Figure 82: Tatneft – FCF bridge 2018E, $bn

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 83: Tatneft – FCF bridge 2019E, $bn

 

 

 

 

4.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(0.5)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CFFO 2017

WC

Other

CFFO 2018

 

Capex

FCF 2018

Interest

Dividends 2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CFFO 2018

WC

Other

CFFO 2019

 

Capex

FCF 2019

Interest

Dividends 2019

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

 

 

 

 

 

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

44

vk.com/id446425943

Renaissance Capital

14 December 2018

Tatneft

Figure 84: Tatneft – operating and financial summary

Operating statistics

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018E

2019E

2020E

Crude oil production, mnt

26

27

27

29

29

29

30

32

Gas production, bcm

0.9

0.9

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

Total hydrocarbon production, mn boe

198

199

205

215

217

220

226

238

Refining throughput, mnt

8

9

9

9

8

9

11

11

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement, RUBbn

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018E

2019E

2020E

Gross revenue

647

646

657

665

773

1,021

972

946

Operating expenses

(542)

(540)

(527)

(521)

(610)

(727)

(729)

(715)

EBITDA

124

128

156

166

187

325

282

271

EBITDA margin

19%

20%

24%

25%

24%

32%

29%

29%

EBIT

104

107

131

144

163

294

243

231

EBIT margin

16%

16%

20%

22%

21%

29%

25%

24%

Financial items

(3)

17

7

(3)

1

10

4

(2)

Profit before tax

101

124

138

141

164

303

247

229

Net income

71

92

99

107

123

237

194

180

Average number of shares outstanding, mn

2,326

2,326

2,326

2,261

2,251

2,251

2,251

2,251

EPS, RUB per share

30.4

39.6

42.7

47.5

54.7

105.4

86.2

80.0

DPS, RUB per share

8.2

10.6

11.0

22.8

39.9

71.8

41.9

38.9

Payout ratio, %

30.0

30.0

30.0

50.0

75.5

70.0

50.0

50.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Growth rates, %

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total hydrocarbon production

0.4

0.4

2.7

5.2

0.7

1.4

2.7

5.2

Revenue

3.2

(0.0)

1.7

1.2

16.2

32.1

(4.8)

(2.7)

EPS

70.3

30.2

7.7

11.3

15.2

92.7

(18.3)

(7.2)

DPS

(4.3)

28.6

3.6

108.1

75.1

79.8

(41.6)

(7.2)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Balance sheet, RUBbn

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018E

2019E

2020E

Current assets

152

181

179

332

285

348

319

341

Non-current assets

522

552

619

762

822

902

1,029

1,140

Total assets

674

733

799

1,095

1,107

1,250

1,348

1,481

Current liabilities

83

68

69

286

306

292

342

372

Long-term liabilities

87

82

72

99

82

90

90

90

Minorities

23

26

29

5

7

5

5

5

Equity

481

556

628

704

712

863

911

1,014

Total equity and liabilities

674

733

799

1,095

1,107

1,250

1,348

1,481

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash-flow statement, RUBbn

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018E

2019E

2020E

Net income

71

92

99

107

123

237

194

180

DD&A

19

21

25

22

25

31

39

41

Other

18

23

24

(0)

49

11

1

1

Changes in working capital

10

0

(8)

12

(7)

(12)

4

2

Cash flow from operations

118

136

141

141

190

268

238

224

Cash flow used for investments

(58)

(72)

(120)

(47)

(112)

(91)

(147)

(132)

Cash flow used for/from financing

(44)

(54)

(39)

(40)

(112)

(122)

(117)

(68)

Effect of exchange rate changes

-

-

-

-

(0)

1

-

-

Cash flow for the year

16

10

(18)

54

(34)

55

(26)

24

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Key data

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018E

2019E

2020E

Net debt/(cash), RUBbn

19

(14)

(7)

(23)

4

(81)

(6)

0

Net debt/equity, %

3.9

(2.6)

(1.1)

(3.3)

0.6

(9.4)

(0.6)

0.0

RoE, %

14.7

16.6

15.8

15.3

17.3

27.5

21.3

17.7

RoIC, %

14.3

17.8

17.6

17.1

29.3

21.3

17.8

16.0

RoACE, %

15.9

14.9

13.7

14.3

27.0

19.8

17.1

15.6

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

45

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