Daniel_Kahneman_Thinking_Fast_and_Slow

higher scores on tests of intelligence: Mischel and Ebbesen, “Attention in Delay of Gratification.” Walter Mischel, “Processes in Delay of Gratification,” in Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, Vol. 7, ed. Leonard Berkowitz (San Diego, CA: Academic Press, 1974), 249–92. Walter Mischel, Yuichi Shoda, and Monica L. Rodriguez, “Delay of Gratification in Children,” Science 244 (1989): 933–38. Eigsti, “Predicting Cognitive Control from Preschool to Late Adolescence.”

improvement was maintained: M. Rosario Rued { Rocenca et al., “Training, Maturation, and Genetic Influences on the Development of Executive Attention,” PNAS 102 (2005): 14931–36.

conventional measures of intelligence: Maggie E. Toplak, Richard F. West, and Keith E. Stanovich, “The Cognitive Reflection Test as a Predictor of Performance on Heuristics-and-Biases Tasks,” Memory & Cognition (in press).

4: The Associative Machine

Associative Machine: Carey K. Morewedge and Daniel Kahneman, “Associative Processes in Intuitive Judgment,” Trends in Cognitive Sciences 14 (2010): 435–40.

beyond your control: To avoid confusion, I did not mention in the text that the pupil also dilated. The pupil dilates both during emotional arousal and when arousal accompanies intellectual effort.

think with your body: Paula M. Niedenthal, “Embodying Emotion,” Science 316 (2007): 1002–1005.

WASH primes SOAP: The image is drawn from the working of a pump. The first few draws on a pump do not bring up any liquid, but they enable subsequent draws to be effective.

“finds he it yellowinstantly”: John A. Bargh, Mark Chen, and Lara Burrows, “Automaticity of Social Behavior: Direct Effects of Trait Construct and Stereotype Activation on Action,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 71 (1996): 230–44.

words related to old age: Thomas Mussweiler, “Doing Is for Thinking! Stereotype Activation by Stereotypic Movements,” Psychological Science 17 (2006): 17–21.

The Far Side: Fritz Strack, Leonard L. Martin, and Sabine Stepper, “Inhibiting and Facilitating Conditions of the Human Smile: A Nonobtrusive Test of the Facial Feedback Hypothesis,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 54 (1988): 768–77.

upsetting pictures: Ulf Dimberg, Monika Thunberg, and Sara Grunedal,

“Facial Reactions to Emotional Stimuli: Automatically Controlled Emotional Responses,” Cognition and Emotion 16 (2002): 449–71.

listen to messages: Gary L. Wells and Richard E. Petty, “The Effects of Overt Head Movements on Persuasion: Compatibility and Incompatibility of Responses,” Basic and Applied Social Psychology 1 (1980): 219–30. increase the funding of schools: Jonah Berger, Marc Meredith, and S. Christian Wheeler, “Contextual Priming: Where People Vote Affects How They Vote,” PNAS 105 (2008): 8846–49.

Reminders of money: Kathleen D. Vohs, “The Psychological Consequences of Money,” Science 314 (2006): 1154–56.

appeal of authoritarian ideas: Jeff Greenberg et al., “Evidence for Terror Management Theory II: The Effect of Mortality Salience on Reactions to Those Who Threaten or Bolster the Cultural Worldview,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology {gy

“Lady Macbeth effect”: Chen-Bo Zhong and Katie Liljenquist, “Washing Away Your Sins: Threatened Morality and Physical Cleansing,” Science 313 (2006): 1451–52.

preferred mouthwash over soap: Spike Lee and Norbert Schwarz, “Dirty Hands and Dirty Mouths: Embodiment of the Moral-Purity Metaphor Is Specific to the Motor Modality Involved in Moral Transgression,”

Psychological Science 21 (2010): 1423–25.

at a British university: Melissa Bateson, Daniel Nettle, and Gilbert Roberts, “Cues of Being Watched Enhance Cooperation in a Real-World Setting,” Biology Letters 2 (2006): 412–14.

introduced to that stranger: Timothy Wilson’s Strangers to Ourselves

(Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press, 2002) presents a concept of an “adaptive unconscious” that is similar to System 1.

5: Cognitive Ease

“Easy” and “Strained”: The technical term for cognitive ease is fluency. diverse inputs and outputs: Adam L. Alter and Daniel M. Oppenheimer, “Uniting the Tribes of Fluency to Form a Metacognitive Nation,”

Personality and Social Psychology Review13 (2009): 219–35.

“Becoming Famous Overnight”: Larry L. Jacoby, Colleen Kelley, Judith Brown, and Jennifer Jasechko, “Becoming Famous Overnight: Limits on the Ability to Avoid Unconscious Influences of the Past,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 56 (1989): 326–38.

nicely stated the problem: Bruce W. A. Whittlesea, Larry L. Jacoby, and Krista Girard, “Illusions of Immediate Memory: Evidence of an Attributional

Basis for Feelings of Familiarity and Perceptual Quality,” Journal of Memory and Language 29 (1990): 716–32.

The impression of familiarity: Normally, when you meet a friend you can immediately place and name him; you often know where you met him last, what he was wearing, and what you said to each other. The feeling of familiarity becomes relevant only when such specific memories are not available. It is a fallback. Although its reliability is imperfect, the fallback is much better than nothing. It is the sense of familiarity that protects you from the embarrassment of being (and acting) astonished when you are greeted as an old friend by someone who only looks vaguely familiar.

“body temperature of a chicken”: Ian Begg, Victoria Armour, and Thérèse Kerr, “On Believing What We Remember,” Canadian Journal of Behavioural Science 17 (1985): 199–214.

low credibility: Daniel M. Oppenheimer, “Consequences of Erudite Vernacular Utilized Irrespective of Necessity: Problems with Using Long Words Needlessly,” Applied Cognitive Psychology 20 (2006): 139–56. when they rhymed: Matthew S. Mc Glone and Jessica Tofighbakhsh, “Birds of a Feather Flock Conjointly (?): Rhyme as Reas {RhyPsychological Science 11 (2000): 424–28.

fictitious Turkish companies: Anuj K. Shah and Daniel M. Oppenheimer, “Easy Does It: The Role of Fluency in Cue Weighting,” Judgment and Decision Making Journal 2 (2007): 371–79.

engaged and analytic mode: Adam L. Alter, Daniel M. Oppenheimer, Nicholas Epley, and Rebecca Eyre, “Overcoming Intuition: Metacognitive Difficulty Activates Analytic Reasoning,” Journal of Experimental Psychology—General 136 (2007): 569–76.

pictures of objects: Piotr Winkielman and John T. Cacioppo, “Mind at Ease Puts a Smile on the Face: Psychophysiological Evidence That Processing Facilitation Increases Positive Affect,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 81 (2001): 989–1000.

small advantage: Adam L. Alter and Daniel M. Oppenheimer, “Predicting Short-Term Stock Fluctuations by Using Processing Fluency,” PNAS 103 (2006). Michael J. Cooper, Orlin Dimitrov, and P. Raghavendra Rau, “A Rose.com by Any Other Name,” Journal of Finance 56 (2001): 2371–88. clunky labels: Pascal Pensa, “Nomen Est Omen: How Company Names Influence Shortand Long-Run Stock Market Performance,” Social Science Research Network Working Paper, September 2006.

mere exposure effect: Robert B. Zajonc, “Attitudinal Effects of Mere Exposure,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 9 (1968): 1–27. favorite experiments: Robert B. Zajonc and D. W. Rajecki, “Exposure and

136–53.

“tattoo on my back”: Jos J. A. Van Berkum, “Understanding Sentences in Context: What Brain Waves Can Tell Us,” Current Directions in Psychological Science 17 (2008): 376–80.

the word pickpocket: Ran R. Hassin, John A. Bargh, and James S. Uleman, “Spontaneous Causal Inferences,” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 38 (2002): 515–22.

indicate surprise: Albert Michotte, The Perception of Causality (Andover, MA: Methuen, 1963). Alan M. Leslie and Stephanie Keeble, “Do Six- Month-Old Infants Perceive Causality?” Cognition 25 (1987): 265–88. explosive finale: Fritz Heider and Mary-Ann Simmel, “An Experimental Study of Apparent Behavior,” American Journal of Psychology 13 (1944): 243–59.

identify bullies and victims: Leslie and Keeble, “Do Six-Month-Old Infants Perceive Causality?”

as we die: Paul Bloom, “Is God an Accident?” Atlantic, December 2005.

7: A Machine for Jumping to Conclusions

elegant experiment: Daniel T. Gilbert, Douglas S. Krull, and Patrick S. Malone, “Unbelieving the Unbelievable: Some Problems in the Rejection of False Information,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 59 (1990): 601–13.

descriptions of two people: Solomon E. Asch, “Forming {#823. Impressions of Personality,” Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology 41 (1946): 258–90.

all six adjectives: Ibid.

Wisdom of Crowds: James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds (New York: Anchor Books, 2005).

one-sided evidence: Lyle A. Brenner, Derek J. Koehler, and Amos Tversky, “On the Evaluation of One-Sided Evidence,” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 9 (1996): 59–70.

8: How Judgments Happen

biological roots: Alexander Todorov, Sean G. Baron, and Nikolaas N. Oosterhof, “Evaluating Face Trustworthiness: A Model-Based Approach,”

Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience 3 (2008): 119–27. friendly or hostile: Alexander Todorov, Chris P. Said, Andrew D. Engell,

and Nikolaas N. Oosterhof, “Understanding Evaluation of Faces on Social

Dimensions,” Trends in Cognitive Sciences 12 (2008): 455–60.

may spell trouble: Alexander Todorov, Manish Pakrashi, and Nikolaas N. Oosterhof, “Evaluating Faces on Trustworthiness After Minimal Time Exposure,” Social Cognition 27 (2009): 813–33.

Australia, Germany, and Mexico: Alexander Todorov et al., “Inference of Competence from Faces Predict Election Outcomes,” Science 308 (2005): 1623–26. Charles C. Ballew and Alexander Todorov, “Predicting Political Elections from Rapid and Unreflective Face Judgments,” PNAS 104 (2007): 17948–53. Christopher Y. Olivola and Alexander Todorov, “Elected in 100 Milliseconds: Appearance-Based Trait Inferences and Voting,” Journal of Nonverbal Behavior 34 (2010): 83–110.

watch less television: Gabriel Lenz and Chappell Lawson, “Looking the Part: Television Leads Less Informed Citizens to Vote Based on Candidates’ Appearance,” American Journal of Political Science

(forthcoming).

absence of a specific task set: Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment,” Psychological Review90 (1983): 293–315.

Exxon Valdez: William H. Desvousges et al., “Measuring Natural Resource Damages with Contingent Valuation: Tests of Validity and Reliability,” in

Contingent Valuation: A Critical Assessment , ed. Jerry A. Hausman (Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1993), 91–159.

sense of injustice: Stanley S. Stevens, Psychophysics: Introduction to Its Perceptual, Neural, and Social Prospect (New York: Wiley, 1975). detected that the words rhymed: Mark S. Seidenberg and Michael K. Tanenhaus, “Orthographic Effects on Rhyme Monitoring,” Journal of Experimental Psychology—Human Learning and Memory 5 (1979): 546–54.

95–96 sentence was literally true: Sam Glucksberg, Patricia Gildea, and Howard G. Boo {How>

Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior 21 (1982): 85–98.

9: Answering an Easier Question

an intuitive answer to it came readily to mind: An alternative approach to judgment heuristics has been proposed by Gerd Gigerenzer, Peter M. Todd, and the ABC Research Group, in Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart (New York: Oxford University Press, 1999). They describe “fast and frugal” formal procedures such as “Take the best [cue],” which under some circumstances generate quite accurate judgments on the basis of little

information. As Gigerenzer has emphasized, his heuristics are different from those that Amos and I studied, and he has stressed their accuracy rather than the biases to which they inevitably lead. Much of the research that supports fast and frugal heuristic uses statistical simulations to show that they could work in some real-life situations, but the evidence for the psychological reality of these heuristics remains thin and contested. The most memorable discovery associated with this approach is the recognition heuristic, illustrated by an example that has become wellknown: a subject who is asked which of two cities is larger and recognizes one of them should guess that the one she recognizes is larger. The recognition heuristic works fairly well if the subject knows that the city she recognizes is large; if she knows it to be small, however, she will quite reasonably guess that the unknown city is larger. Contrary to the theory, the subjects use more than the recognition cue: Daniel M. Oppenheimer, “Not So Fast! (and Not So Frugal!): Rethinking the Recognition Heuristic,” Cognition 90 (2003): B1–B9. A weakness of the theory is that, from what we know of the mind, there is no need for heuristics to be frugal. The brain processes vast amounts of information in parallel, and the mind can be fast and accurate without ignoring information. Furthermore, it has been known since the early days of research on chess masters that skill need not consist of learning to use less information. On the contrary, skill is more often an ability to deal with large amounts of information quickly and efficiently.

best examples of substitution: Fritz Strack, Leonard L. Martin, and Norbert Schwarz, “Priming and Communication: Social Determinants of Information Use in Judgments of Life Satisfaction,” European Journal of Social Psychology 18 (1988): 429–42.

correlations between psychological measures: The correlation was .66. dominates happiness reports: Other substitution topics include marital satisfaction, job satisfaction, and leisure time satisfaction: Norbert Schwarz, Fritz Strack, and Hans-Peter Mai, “Assimilation and Contrast Effects in Part-Whole Question Sequences: A Conversational Logic Analysis,” Public Opinion Quarterly 55 (1991): 3–23.

evaluate their happiness: A telephone survey conducted in Germany included a question about general happiness. When the self-reports of happiness were correlated with the local weather at the time of the interview, a pronounced correlation was found. Mood is known to vary with the weather, and substitution explains the effect on reported happiness. However, another version of the telephone survey yielded a somewhat different result. These respondents were asked about the current weather before they were asked the happiness quest {ppiournal ofion. For them,

weather had no effect at all on reported happiness! The explicit priming of weather provided them with an explanation of their mood, undermining the connection that would normally be made between current mood and overall happiness.

view of the benefits: Melissa L. Finucane et al., “The Affect Heuristic in Judgments of Risks and Benefits,” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 13 (2000): 1–17.

10: The Law of Small Numbers

“It is both…without additives”: Howard Wainer and Harris L. Zwerling, “Evidence That Smaller Schools Do Not Improve Student Achievement,” Phi Delta Kappan 88 (2006): 300–303. The example was discussed by Andrew Gelman and Deborah Nolan, Teaching Statistics: A Bag of Tricks

(New York: Oxford University Press, 2002).

50% risk of failing: Jacob Cohen, “The Statistical Power of AbnormalSocial Psychological Research: A Review,” Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology 65 (1962): 145–53.

“Belief in the Law of Small Numbers”: Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “Belief in the Law of Small Numbers,” Psychological Bulletin 76 (1971): 105–10.

“statistical intuitions…whenever possible”: The contrast that we drew between intuition and computation seems to foreshadow the distinction between Systems 1 and 2, but we were a long way from the perspective of this book. We used intuition to cover anything but a computation, any informal way to reach a conclusion.

German spies: William Feller, Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications (New York: Wiley, 1950).

randomness in basketball: Thomas Gilovich, Robert Vallone, and Amos Tversky, “The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences,” Cognitive Psychology 17 (1985): 295–314.

11: Anchors

“‘reasonable’ volume”: Robyn Le Boeuf and Eldar Shafir, “The Long and Short of It: Physical Anchoring Effects,” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 19 (2006): 393–406.

nod their head: Nicholas Epley and Thomas Gilovich, “Putting Adjustment Back in the Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic: Differential Processing of Self-Generated and Experimenter-Provided Anchors,” Psychological

Science 12 (2001): 391–96.

stay closer to the anchor: Epley and Gilovich, “The Anchoring-and- Adjustment Heuristic.”

associative coherence: Thomas Mussweiler, “The Use of Category and Exemplar Knowledge in the Solution of Anchoring Tasks,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 78 (2000): 1038–52.

San Francisco Exploratorium: Karen E. Jacowitz and Daniel Kahneman, “Measures of Anchoring in Estimation Tasks,” Person {pantion ality and Social Psychology Bulletin 21 (1995): 1161–66.

substantially lower: Gregory B. Northcraft and Margaret A. Neale, “Experts, Amateurs, and Real Estate: An Anchoring-and-Adjustment Perspective on Property Pricing Decisions,” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 39 (1987): 84–97. The high anchor was 12% above the listed price, the low anchor was 12% below that price.

rolled a pair of dice: Birte Englich, Thomas Mussweiler, and Fritz Strack, “Playing Dice with Criminal Sentences: The Influence of Irrelevant Anchors on Experts’ Judicial Decision Making,” Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 32 (2006): 188–200.

NO LIMIT PER PERSON: Brian Wansink, Robert J. Kent, and Stephen J. Hoch, “An Anchoring and Adjustment Model of Purchase Quantity Decisions,”

Journal of Marketing Research 35 (1998): 71–81.

resist the anchoring effect: Adam D. Galinsky and Thomas Mussweiler, “First Offers as Anchors: The Role of Perspective-Taking and Negotiator Focus,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 81 (2001): 657– 69.

otherwise be much smaller: Greg Pogarsky and Linda Babcock, “Damage Caps, Motivated Anchoring, and Bargaining Impasse,” Journal of Legal Studies 30 (2001): 143–59.

amount of damages: For an experimental demonstration, see Chris Guthrie, Jeffrey J. Rachlinski, and Andrew J. Wistrich, “Judging by Heuristic-Cognitive Illusions in Judicial Decision Making,” Judicature 86 (2002): 44–50.

12: The Science of Availability

“the ease with which”: Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability,” Cognitive Psychology 5 (1973): 207–32.

self-assessed contributions: Michael Ross and Fiore Sicoly, “Egocentric Biases in Availability and Attribution,” Journal of Personality and Social