01 POWER ISLAND / 02 H2+NH3 / The_Future_of_Hydrogen-IEA-2020

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40 For all applications the volume requirements for on-board storage are a key challenge for hydrogen. While hydrogen contains around three times more energy per kg than fossil fuels, its energy density is eight times lower than these conventional fuels when compressed to typical on-board storage pressures for gaseous hydrogen (70 megapascals).

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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 5: Opportunities for hydrogen in transport, buildings and power

* China = People’s Republic of China.

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Road transport

Light-duty FCEVs receive most public attention when it comes to the direct use of hydrogen in mobility applications today. FCEVs have, however, also been deployed for material handling applications (mainly forklifts), buses, trains and trucks.41

How is hydrogen used in road transport today?

Cars

Cars account for the vast majority of fuel cell power deployed in road transport (E4tech, 2018). About 4 000 fuel cell electric cars were sold in 2018 to reach a total stock of 11 200 units (Figure 50), an increase of 56% over the previous year (AFC TCP, 2018). This is still a small number compared with the 2018 BEV stock of 5.1 million (IEA, 2019a) or the global car stock of more than 1 billion. The United States accounts for about half of registered FCEVs, followed by Japan (about a quarter), the European Union (11%, primarily in Germany and France) and Korea (8%). Almost all passenger car FCEVs are made by Toyota, Honda and Hyundai, although MercedesBenz has recently begun leasing and selling limited volumes of a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle with a fuel cell.

Source: AFC TCP (2019), AFC TCP Survey on the Number of Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles, Hydrogen Refuelling Stations and Targets.

About 4 000 fuel cell electric cars were sold in 2018, growth of almost 56% over the previous year, but this still represents a small fraction of the global light-duty vehicle fleet.

Buses, trucks and other goods vehicles

Hydrogen fuel cell electric forklifts are already commercially viable as replacements for existing battery electric forklifts42 and it is estimated that 25 000 forklifts have fuel cells globally. In the

41The success of FCEVs in the forklift market comes from their need to use significant amounts of electricity and the strict tailpipe emissions requirements that they are subject to, since they often operate in enclosed environments where internal combustion engines would result in high human exposure to exhaust gases.

42The economics derive from high utilisation, fast charging, small grid charges and better use of capital (i.e. no batteries are offline when being charged). One critical prerequisite is the high utilisation of the hydrogen fuelling station through a captive forklift fleet.

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Notes: Hydrogen station numbers include both publicly available and private refuelling units. The number of FCEVs used to estimate the ratio includes only light-duty vehicles, and so does not reflect utilisation of stations by other categories of road vehicles.

Source: AFC TCP (2019), AFC TCP Survey on the Number of Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles, Hydrogen Refuelling Stations and Targets.

The ratio of hydrogen refuelling stations to light-duty FCEVs varies considerably across countries, reflecting differences in approaches to deployment, station size, storage pressure and utilisation.

Delivered hydrogen prices are highly sensitive to hydrogen refuelling station utilisation. For example, a ratio close to 10 cars per station (as is the case in Europe) implies that pumps operate less than 10% of the time if the refuelling stations were as small as 50 kgH2 per day.43 This translates to a high price of around USD 15–25/kgH2 if the costs of building and operating refuelling stations are repaid by fuel sales over the lifetime of a station.44 A higher ratio of cars to refuelling stations implies better co-ordination between vehicle and infrastructure deployment and should lead to lower hydrogen prices. However, some countries with high ratios today have FCEVs that are mostly used as fleet vehicles, with fixed routes and refuelling patterns that are not representative of the needs of more widespread deployment. This is the case in China and France, for example.

The variability of this ratio among countries indicates different approaches to the risks associated with refuelling infrastructure development. Refuelling stations can take as little as six months to bring into operation in China, but generally take up to two years (CEC, 2017). Approaches that try to mitigate the co-ordination problem and time lag related to infrastructure development include using refuelling stations at or near hydrogen production sites (for instance at industrial sites, intermodal interchange hubs or ports) to serve dedicated fleets (such as industrial operations or, potentially, public buses or taxis).

43 This calculation is based on an annual refuelling volume of hydrogen of 160 kg per year per vehicle and annual mileage of 12 000 km.

44 While station capacities below 50 kg per day would translate into higher utilisation rates, small stations are capital intensive and would not be able to take advantage of the strong scale economies of refuelling stations. As a result, the cost margin added by refuelling of a station with a capacity of less than 50 kg per day would still be upward of USD 15/kg of hydrogen.

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Box 12. Public and private initiatives for hydrogen in road transport

•The leading FCEV car manufacturers today are Toyota and Hyundai, both of whom have ambitious plans for scale-up. Toyota’s announced target is to produce over 30 000 fuel cell electric cars annually after 2020, from about 3 000 today (Tajitsu and Shiraki, 2018). Hyundai also has production capacity today of around 3 000 fuel cell systems and aims to increase this to 700 000 by 2030, with 70% for road FCEVs (Kim, 2018).

•Thousands of fuel cell electric buses are lined up for production and are on pre-order for the coming five years, mostly in China. In general, government-supported initiatives directly underpin these orders, including the Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking in Europe and the National Fuel Cell Bus Program in the United States. In Korea a public– private partnership aims to deploy 1 000 fuel cell electric buses by 2022 on the way to Korea’s stated target of 40 000 by 2040 (Study Task Force, 2019). Korea’s natural gaspowered bus fleet has 26 000 vehicles, all of which could be converted to hydrogen (O’Dell, 2018). Japan aims to have 100 fuel cell electric buses operating for the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics in Japan.

•In the case of trucks, several established truck manufacturers – Hyundai, Scania, Toyota, Volkswagen, Daimler and Groupe PSA – are developing models, as are newer companies such as Nikola Motor Company, founded in 2014. Of these, Hyundai and Nikola are more advanced in terms of orders, with 1 600 Hyundai fuel cell electric trucks (in partnership with H2 Energy) scheduled to roll out in Switzerland and other European countries by 2025 (ACTU, 2019). Nikola has secured substantial funding and a high volume of preorders for its semi-trucks, including a recently unveiled European model, the Nikola Tre (Nikola, 2018a; Nikola, 2018b). Both Hyundai and Nikola are closely involved in the supply of hydrogen (largely from renewable electricity) to ensure customers can meet their fuel needs from the outset. Toyota is partnering with the California Air Resources Board and the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach to trial its Class 8 truck. In addition, delivery companies such as FedEx, UPS and DHL aim to trial fuel cell range-extender vehicles. StreetScooter (now owned by Deutsche Post DHL Group) aims to have fuel cell rangeextended vans in operation by 2020.

Sources: Tajitsu and Shiraki (2018), “Toyota plans to expand production, shrink cost of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles”; Kim (2018), “Hyundai plans $6.7 billion investment to boost fuel-cell output”; Study Task Force (2019), “Hydrogen Roadmap Korea: Presenting a vision, roadmap, and recommendations for Korea's future hydrogen economy”; O’Dell (2018), “2018 is the tipping point for commercial vehicle electrification”; ACTU (2019), ; Nikola (2018a), “Nikola oversubscribes C round with $210 million”; Nikola (2018b), “Nikola raises $100 million in August”.

Potential future hydrogen demand in road transport

Together with BEVs, FCEVs are the only vehicles with no exhaust emissions and thus offer the potential to drastically reduce local air pollution, especially in cities. They can also dramatically reduce CO2 emissions when low-carbon hydrogen is used. The driving range and pattern of refuelling for FCEVs is similar to internal combustion engine vehicles. Furthermore, hydrogen has some attractive attributes compared to biofuels as it does not generally face resource constraints or competition for land use. FCEVs have nevertheless been slow to take off. Technical challenges and high prices have delayed their market introduction. While the Hyundai

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