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Leading Indicators

Economists have developed a set of indicators to give a good idea of when a recession is about to occur and when the economy is in one. These signs are called leading indicators—insinuators that tell us what’s likely to happen 12 to 15 months from now. They include:

1. Average workweek for production workers in manufacturing.

2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance.

3. New orders for consumer goods and materials.

4. Vendor performance, measured as a percentage of companies reporting slower deliveries from suppliers.

5. Index of consumer expectations.

6. New orders for nondependent capital goods.

7. Number of new building permits issued for private housing units.

8. Stock prices—50 common stocks.

9. Interest rate spread—10 year government bond less federal lands rate.

10. Money supply, M2.

3. Unemployment

The unemployment rate, the fraction of people who would like to be employed but cannot find work, is a key indicator of the state of the labor market. When the unemployment rate is high, work is hard to find, and people who do have jobs typically find it harder to get promotions or wage increases.

One question of great interest to macroeconomists is why unemployment rates sometimes differ markedly from country to country.

The labor force is the number of people over the age of 16 who are either employed or actively seeking a job.

Unemployment occurs when people are looking for a job and cannot find one.

An unemployed person is defined as one over the age of 16 who is available for work and has actively sought employment during the previous 4 weeks.

The unemployment rate measures the ratio of the number of people classified as unemployed to the total labor force.

Types of unemployment

1. Cyclical unemployment is unemployment resulting from fluctuations in economic activity.

2. Structural unemployment is unemployment caused by economic restructuring making some skills obsolete. Structural unemployment is resulting from permanent shifts in the pattern of demand for goods and services or changes in technology.

3. Frictional unemployment (2%) is unemployment caused by new entrants into the job market and people quitting a job just long enough to look for job find another one and of a few "unemployables," such as alcoholics and drug addicts, along with a certain amount of necessary structural and seasonal unemployment resulting when the structure of the economy changed.

Frictional unemployment is usual amount of unemployment resulting from people who have left jobs that did not work out and are searching for new employment or people who are either entering or reentering the labor force to search for a job.

The target rate of unemployment is the lowest sustainable rate of unemployment that policy makers believe is achievable under existing conditions.

The total amount of unemployment in any month is the sum of frictional, structural, and cyclical unemployment.

The natural rate of unemployment is the percentage of the labor force that can normally be expected to be unemployed for reasons other than cyclical fluctuations in real GNP.

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