-Summary 1-population 2-economy 3-political forecast 4-advance in knowledge
3- POLITICAL FORECAST
31-Basic assumptions
In 2000, our survey stated two basic assumptions:
-There will be no Cold War between China and the West.
-Any resuscitation of fascism or communism is out of the question in Japan, the United States and enlarged Europe.
The first assert according to a consensus of experts remains true. The second was wrong: Since september 2001, we attend the surge of a Nazi-islamism spreading over the entire world including Europe. Go to the
Thanks to the present revision, our basic assumptions are the following:
-We maintain the low probability of a China-US conflict.
-We expect that the islamic surge will going on until 2030.
-As a result, we think that a limited globalization and a containment policy (Against Islamism) will shape the international scene in 2030.
32- International situation
We forecast an arch of instability along a line going from South East Asia to Western Europe and confronting free societies and the authoritarian Islam. In Asia, Islamism will be blocked through local wars and repression of separatism. On the other hand, Islamism will progress in Western Europe and Africa where it will not encounter too much resistance.
By opposition, North America and North East Asia (China) belong to the same paradigm: globalization and the experts consensus does not expect any major conflict between these two regions before 2030.
321-Situation in free countries
In 2030, supposing that China becomes a democratic country, the entire globalization area as defined above will be made up of free countries. The USA will remain the main provider of global security. However, this country will have to share more and more its power with China, India, and Russia.
The free countries will endure wars on their borders with Islam. India and South East Asia will face with a growing muslim unrest both on their borders and inside their own territories. Russia will be at war on its borders. However we are confident that these countries will have the willingness to resist and to organize a containment policy against Islamism. The alliance between America, and free Asia should be the best demonstration that the world war against Islamism is not a clash of civilizations or a clash between the riches and the poor's. It will prove that it is the war of the united civilizations against a single barbarism.
The free countries have also to pay attention to the increasing criminal activities that account for about $2,000 billion (World corruption, Drug trafficking, counterfeiting, prostitution, monkey business and so on). Since Globalization intensifies the relations with the fake business class of the dictatorships, a new society is appearing : Not the free society, nor the classic authoritarian society but the mafia society. Go to our survey titled
322-Situation in other countries
Globalization has begun in the eighties and flourished in the nineties. With the Soviet Union collapse, people thought that democracy and globalization should extend to the entire world : In fact, since the nineties, democracy has only extended in the former Soviet block (Notably in the Eastern European countries) and in a few countries in Africa. It seems blocked by a hard rock in North Africa and the Middle East. Clearly, we have underestimated the political factors such as the resistance of the dictatorships and their ability to rally uneducated people and to generate a new terrorism. We have also too much nurture a benign neglect to the chaos spreading over many third world countries.
The Middle East and North Africa will remain the world black sheep until 2030 (Terrorism, wars, fanaticism, Grand corruption, dictatorships, Illegal immigration, proliferation and constant threat for the civilized world). The situation in black Africa is most worrying. A high quantity of available labor, negative beliefs and chaos will attract many predators and could facilitate a resurgence of slavery on a large scale and the occurrence of new genocides.
323-Road to a limited globalization
By the end of WW2, the allies expected an increase of democracy, human rights, free trade and so on. However, they met the Soviet Union opposition and three issues appeared: To make war, to cooperate, or to accept a divided world with the iron curtain and the containment. Finally, the latter solution prevailed.
Today, we are confronted to the same issues: Firstly, everybody agrees that democracy is a prerequisite of any globalization: Have we the willingness to extend it ? By 2004/2005, we have got two new democracies: Afghanistan and may be Iraq. It remains 102 countries partly free or not free! Secondly, democracy implies human rights and liberal reforms such as the civil equality, the abolishment of polygamy, stoning, mutilation and the entire sharia’a. It should imply a complete reeducation ( And notably a reform of Islam) similar to the denazification process which was implemented in Germany by the end of World War 2. Have we the willingness to impose such reforms? In fact, we may impose democracy but it's impossible to change rapidly people habits. It needs a long time and a large education as a prerequisite.
Since we have not the willingness to export democracy through wars, the best guess is a containment policy separating the Free world from the dictatorships. Such a containment could diminish our vulnerability to terrorism only due to the fifth islamic column living in the free countries. Some measures should seem obvious: To neutralize the suspected terrorist cells, to expel the fundamentalist groups campaigning for the Jihad, to forbid any immigration coming from countries contaminated by the islamic plague and so on.
According to this policy, instead of a global village, we will get a Free world and a black planet inhabited by the dictatorships and orbiting all around. Look at the next drawing.
DRAWING 7
According to our analysis, this limited globalization and its containment policy will shape the international scene in 2030.
33-A major uncertainty: The European Union
In our opinion, the European Union is the main target of the islamic surge and more specifically France (and Germany). Thanks to immigration and enlargement to Turkey, the islamic movement expects to gain a growing political influence in Europe. You have to bear in mind that France is a large nuclear power and the islamic groups would be happy to get control on it. Of course such an event will not happen before 2030 but the islamic movement is going on steps by steps, in combining terrorism, blackmail about oil and grand corruption notably through media, scholars and policy makers. What is more, it benefits of a powerful ally with the European Commission.
At the difference of Asia, the European Union is unable to resist because it has given up its values and surrendered to the cultural relativism and the islamic values. The growth prospects are declining and the European Middle class will suffer from the Asian competition (See above). Many businessmen would like to enlarge the European Union to the Arab world in order to counterbalance the rising Asia. This trend could lead to protectionist policies. On the other hand, European policy makers plead openly for a cooperation with Islamism because they hope a decrease of the terrorist pressure. This "Munich agreement" would expose the Union to a constant contamination of corruption, illegal immigration, and a permanent blackmail.
By the end, cooperation could be replaced by alliance. In the long term, a return to the period preceding WW2 with a nazi-islamism spreading over in the European Union and eager to confront America could appear as a possible future: A great Euro-Arab Reich may be on the agenda after 2030. It means that the main threat could come from Europe instead of China. On the other hand, we can also expect that the European unity will not resist such tensions for very long. The United Kingdom and other European countries could break off from the European Union to move closer to North America.