GLOBAL TRENDS 2030 THE WORLD IN 2030
SUMMARY: MAPPING THE WORLD-2030: Revision 2005
By the end, our futures studies provide you with an unique scenario.
The world in 2030 will be divided into three areas:
1-A Globalizing area (51.5 % of the population, 74.5% of the world GNI) with a growing middle class.
2-A backward area dominated by Islamism ( 34.5% of world population and only 3.5% of world GNI) with low incomes, economic regression and chaos
3-A declining area (European Union and South America: 14% of the world population and 22% of the world GNI).
According to our analysis, a limited globalization and a containment policy (Against Islamism) will shape the international scene in 2030. You will find here a single picture mapping these results.
DRAWING 1
ГЛОБАЛЬНЫЕ ТЕНДЕНЦИИ 2030 МИР В 2030
РЕЗЮМЕ: КАРТОГРАФИЯ 2030 МИРА: Пересмотр 2005
Эта заключительная бумага суммирует результаты наших десяти предыдущих региональных обзоров: , , , ,
К концу, наши занятия(изучения) срочного контракта обеспечивают Вас уникальным сценарием.
Мир в 2030 будет разделен на три области:
1-A Объединяющаяся область (51.5 % населения, 74.5 % мира GNI) с растущим средним классом.
2-A обратная(отсталая) область во власти Исламизма (34.5 % мирового населения и только 3.5 % мира GNI) с низкими доходами, экономическим регрессом и хаосом
3-A снижение(отклонение) области (Европейский союз и Южная Америка: 14 % мирового населения и 22 % мира GNI).
Согласно нашему анализу, ограниченная глобализация и политика(полис) сдерживания (Против Исламизма) будут формировать международную арену в 2030. Вы найдете здесь единственную(отдельную) картину, наносящую на карту эти результаты.
РИСУНОК 1
The first column indicates the regions. The golden area represents the globalizing world (Global driver). The green area represents the regions influenced by the new islamic driver (The revival of Muslim identity) or by authoritarian societies (Central Africa). The gray area applies to countries in transition, that are expected to leave the globalization in moving toward new paradigms: Cultural relativism and islamic values for the European Union, neo-Communism and Populism for South America.
The third column indicates the repartition of the population that will attain 8.2 billion in 2030 (6.5 in 2005). The net increase to come (1.7 Billion) will occur in countries influenced by the islamic driver (green area) and will be mostly composed with poor muslim people. This increase could have bad consequences on governance, environment through deforestation and gender inequalities. Globally, the Population under islamic influence will represent 34.5% of the world population.
The second column indicates the repartition of the world GNI that will attain 94,290 $Billion in 2030 ( 39,305 in 2004). The increase to come (55,000 $Billion) will occur in the golden area (85%). As a result, this area will represent 74.5% of the world GNI. More precisely, the world economic power will be concentrated around the Pacific ocean: North America, Oceania , North and South East asia will get 67% of the world GNI. By contrast, the green area, with 34% of the world population will only get 3.5% of the world GNI.
The fourth column indicates the income per capita repartition: In 2030, 34% of the world population, will be on an income that exceeds $10,000 per capita (16% in 2004). The most important fact is the growing Middle class: High and Upper Middle income groups will represent 61% of the world population in 2030 ( 25% in 2004). As a result the percentage of poor people (Lower Middle Income en Low income) will decrease from 75% to 39% and will be concentrated in the green area ( Islamic driver). The growing middle class in China and India also means the emergence of a huge well educated work force at low cost. European Union which imports poor migrants and exports its scientist will endure the main shock of this evolution. Its blue collars and even its middle class could heavily suffer of this trend.
The main consequences of this global situation are obvious: All the increase of population will occur in the countries dominated by the islamic driver. All the increase of wealth will occur in the globalizing world. As a result, we may expect a new world divide: Free societies versus islamic societies with long range political consequences.
Regarding political matters (Fifth column), the brown circle represents wars, the red circle: terrorism and the black circle: genocides. We forecast an arch of instability along a line going from South East Asia to Western Europe. The Middle East and Africa will remain the world black sheep until 2030. Clearly, terrorism, wars and genocides are both expected in this green area. The globalizing world will also endure wars (brown circles) on its borders with Islam. However we are confident that these countries will have the willingness to resist and to organize a containment policy against Islamism.
In our opinion, the European Union is the main target of the islamic surge. Thanks to immigration and enlargement to Turkey, the islamic movement expects to gain a growing political influence in Europe. At the difference of Asia, the European Union is unable to resist because it has given up its values and surrendered to the cultural relativism and the islamic values. The Europeans leaders plead openly for a cooperation with Islamism because they hope a decrease of the terrorist pressure (Red circles). In the long term, cooperation could be replaced by alliance. It means that the main threat could come from Europe instead of China.
This high flow of discoveries will boost the future growth (Sixth column). The increasing trend will be concentrated in the globalizing area and we expect that the US will maintain their predominance by 2030. However, Asian nations are rapidly increasing their ability to train their own scientists and engineers. On the other hand, the European Union will be slipping behind Asia. Of course, the countries affected by the islamic obscurantism will be completely out of any scientific competition.
WARNING:
1-We invite you to report to our and . About the sources of tables and stats, Go to: Economic stats-World Bank: . Population stats: UN: Bear in mind that we do not use the Purchasing Power Parity in this final survey.
2-We invite you to compare our results with the . The CIA Survey results in five scenario: Davos world, Pax Americana, A new Caliphate, and the cycle of fear. In our opinion, it does not take enough in account the Islamic driver.
3-We also invite you to report to our initial survey written in 2000. Click
1-POPULATION
11-The big pictures
111-Evolution of world population
According to the updated projections of the United Nations ( Revision 2004- Medium scenario ), the population will attain 8.2 billion in 2030. It will grow to 9 billion in 2050. Then it should stabilize and begin to decline after 2100. Go to . and . Consider the next drawing (In million): DRAWING 2 Years----------------- 2005-----2030-----2050----- 2100 Medium scenario------6,464----8,199----9,075---- 9,000 High scenario-----------6,464----8,784----10,696--- 18,000 Low scenario ---------- 6,464----7,618-----7,679-----5,000
112-Regional repartition
The regional repartition is given by the next drawing ( Population in Million and share of world population in% ). The country composition of regions is based on the FWA analytical regions and may differ from common geographic usage. Go to annex 1 : Classification
DRAWING 3
Years------------------------- 2004---------------2030 Wider Europe-------------------799 (12%)---------763 (9%) North America------------------330 ( 5%)----------400 (5%) Latin America-------------------561 ( 8%)----------722 (9%) Oceania-------------------------33-----------------42 Sub total-------------------- 1723 (25%)------1927 (23%) South East Asia----------------555 ( 8%)----------700 ( 9%) North East Asia---------------1,524 (23%)-------1,542 (19%) South Asia------------------- 1,478 (23%)-------2,044 (25%) Central Asia----------------------63 ( 1%)-----------75 (1%)
Sub total--------------------3,620 (57%)-----4,361 (54%) Middle East and North Africa----386 (6%)---------- 585 ( 7%) Sub saharan Africa ------------751 (12%)--------1,328 (16%) Sub total--------------------1,137 (18%)-----1,912 (23%) Gross total------------------6,480 (100%)---8,200 (100%)
The ten most populated countries are/or will be ( In million ):
-In 2004: China (1,315), India (1,103), the European Union (470), the USA (298), Indonesia (222), Brazil (186), Pakistan (157), Russia (143), Bangladesh (141), Nigeria (131). These ten countries represent 64 % of the world's population
-In 2030: India (1,449), China (1,346), the European Union enlarged to Balkans and Turkey (605), the USA (360), Indonesia (270), Pakistan (262), Brazil (235), Nigeria (217), Bangladesh (205), Ethiopia (136). These ten countries will represent 63 % of the world's population
These figures shows some evolutions in the share of the different regions: 1-Globally, the net increase to come (8200-6480=1720) will exclusively occur in under developed countries. It will be mainly composed with Asian : 42% (Mostly Indian and Malays) and black african 33%.
2-The share of Wider Europe will fall from 12% in 2004 to 9% in 2030. However, if we take in account North and Latin America + Australia, the share of “ethnic European” attains 25% in 2004 and nearly 23% in 2030. It means that "ethnic Europe" will have the same share of the world population in 2030 as in 1750. Thanks to the growth of Latin America, the Latin descent ( Hispanic, Portuguese, French and Italian ) will increase at the detriment of Anglo Saxons, German and Slav descent.
3-The share of Asia (57% in 2004) will diminish in 2030 (54%). Inside Asia, Indian, and Malays will increase at the detriment of Chinese.
4-The share of Sub saharan Africa (12% in 2004) will increase to 16% in 2030. Sub saharan Africa will have an higher growth than any other region. ( Go to ).
12-Causes: the drivers
To explain the stabilization of the population the demographers use the demographic transition theory. It postulates that all nations will move to a fertility rate of about 2.1 children per woman ( Replacement level ). Go to and read the article about the "transition in world population". Clearly, the transition implies that people focus on the well being , use contraceptive and promote gender equality.
However, the fall in fertility rates is fast in some countries (Notably Europe) and very low in many muslim countries. The islamic driver explains why the transition theory is not yet at work in many under developed countries. The Islamic groups claim that a large population is recommended by religion. They believe that the larger the population of muslims, the greater the power. They explain that family planning represents a Western conspiracy to reduce the number of muslims.
As a result, the Islamic population will rapidly increase its share in the world population. The world population will increase by 1.7 Billion between 2004 and 2030. On this amount, Muslims will bring 780 million ( 46% ). Today, Muslims represent 24% of world population ( One man out of four). This figure will attain 29% in 2030 ( One man out of three ). This phenomenon would mean serious consequences for many countries: For example, thanks to the enlargement to Turkey and migrations, the population of the European Union ( 605 in 2030) will include 150 million muslim ( Turkey: 90 million, Balkans: 7 million and Western europe: 53 million. This last estimate of 53 million is in accordance with the CIA high projection of muslims in the European Union : 40 million in 2025)
13-Consequences
131-Developed countries
The expected decline of the European population would only be an adjustment, compared to the rapid growth occurring in the past. What is more, this decline would be a good new: Western Europe is crowded and less population will mean a better living and less pollution. Unfortunately, the vacuum could attract silent invaders and predators!
Third world activists suggest a massive immigration. They use wrong arguments and influence media and policy makers: Report to and . In fact Migrations can have either positive or negative effects. It just depends on the economic context of the receiving country. International migrations are an asset for the US economy. On the contrary, Europe would have better to limit the migrations and to tighten its controls. We disagree with the CIA judgment stating " Migration has the potential to help solve the problem of a declining work force in Europe"
132-Developing countries
Clearly, the increase of population in poor countries is not a good asset regarding the future of mankind. A recent UNICEF survey reports that more than 1 billion children are suffering of basic "deprivations" : One billion children means about 500 millions girls. These girls who are today 5 years old, will marry in 2010-2015. Since they are mostly living in Africa and the Middle East ( With high fertility rate), each girl will have an average of 3 children before 2030. It means that the expected increase of the population (1.7 Billion) will mainly come from these mothers who have been deprived of food, education, decency and so one: What is more, we have to recall that some surveys in the 70 released that children born from poorly-fed mothers would never get their full brain development.
This increase in poor countries will result in another consequence regarding the mankind: More deforestation ( Go to ). Rainforests in South East Asia and Central Africa will be seriously damaged by 2030 ( 3,000,000 km2 of forests risk deforestation between 2000 and 2030). with irreversible consequences for the climate. The availability of water will be also a serious threat in the entire North Africa and Middle East, as well as in Central Asia.
133-Women at risk
As a result of the islamic driver, an increasing number of women will endure a bad situation, both relatively and absolutely, compared to the world women population. The survey determines the number of girls and women who could endure a minor status in the future. The results are given by the next drawing ( In Million of women). DRAWING 3 YEARS------------------------- 2005------- 2030 Women world population---------3200---------3950 Minor status--------------- ----580----------850 Domestic slavery-------------- 175----------260 Female genital mutilation------165----------260 These figures show an expected increase of gender inequalities because the most backward countries are also those which will have the higher growth of population. In 1980, one women in seven was at risk. In 2030, one in five will be exposed to a subordinate situation. In short, the islamic surge is annihilating all the progress made in the 20th century in various regions of the world. Consequently, we disagree with the CIA survey that states "By 2020, women will have gained more rights and freedoms—in terms of education, political participation, and work force equality—in most parts of the world, " (The CIA just adopts the UN indicators: Women’s share in the global work force , wage gaps and political participation. We have clearly explained in why these indicators were biased).
15-Uncertainties
According to the CIA survey, some experts posit that different uncertainties could impede this evolution ( Shortage in food, pandemics, natural catastrophe, wars and so on ). In our opinion, none of these events is able to change the future trend as described above.
Shortage in food and fresh water: 500,000 children are presently at risk of starvation in Niger. This fact and the lingering shortages of food will not prevent Niger ( Today 12 million ) to get 98 million by 2100! ( A larger population than Germany or Russia ). More globally, any Malthusian notion based on the scarcity of natural resources corresponds to an out dated economic model.( Go to ).
Pandemics : You have to bear in mind that the yearly growth rate of the world population accounts for 1.2%: It means that the population presently increases by 78 Million a year. Compared to this figure a new pandemic, such as the 1918–1919 influenza virus that killed an estimated 20 million worldwide, would have a minor effect on the global trends.
Climate change and natural catastrophes: The above argument also applies to a tsunami or an earthquake.
Wars and genocides: These events will not prevent Sub Saharan to double its population between 2005 and 2030. By the same token, a terrorist attack killing hundreds of thousands would have none effect on the population trend. Only a major nuclear war could have devastating effects but it seems to be an highly unlikely event before 2030.
-Summary 1-population 2-economy 3-political forecast 4-advance in knowledge
2-ECONOMY
21-The big pictures
211-Evolution of World GNI
The world GNI attains 39,305 $Billion in 2004. It is expected to reach 94,290 in 2030. Consider the next drawing: GNI in $Billion, population in million, income per capita in $.
DRAWING 4
Years---------------------------2004---------- 2030 WORLD GNI ---------------------39,305---------94,290 Population----------------------- 6,480-----------8200 World income per capita--------- 6,065---------11,500 This economic trend implies an average growth rate of 3.4% over 26 years. Compared to the population growth rate 1%, it means that the world income per capita will increase by 2.4% per year over the period.
Many people contest the compatibility of this trend with the exhausting of natural resources and notably oil ( In the 60, the Club of Rome predicted that most of the natural resources were rapidly exhausted). In spite of the present rise in oil price the CIA survey asserts that " Recent estimates indicate that 80 percent of the world's available oil still remains in the ground, as does 95 percent of the world's natural gas". Moreover, we can expect a decrease of oil prices by 2015 because natural gas usage will increase more rapidly than that of any other energy source. It means that the present high oil prices could be followed by a price collapse. Finally, in the long term ( After 2030 ), the fusion reactors would bring an inexhaustible source of energy. It will mean a drop in petrol consumption and a solution to the global warming.
212-Regional repartition
The next drawing shows the evolution of the main economic zone in % of the world GNI. According to our classification, the detailed figures, region by region, are in Annex 2.
DRAWING 5
---------------2004-------------------------------------2030
1-85% of the huge World GNI increase to come, will occur in the globalizing area that will represent 74.5% of the world GNI. More precisely, the world economic power will be concentrated around the Pacific ocean: North America, Oceania , North and South East asia will get 67% of the world GNI.
2-North America ( USA and Canada ) will keep quite the same share of the world GNI as in 2004.
3-North East Asia ( China, Korea and Japan) will grow from 19% to 30% ( The same share as North America in 2030 ). We also take notice of the emergence of South Asia ( In fact mainly India ) as a new major partner in 2030. This global growth of Asia is made at the detriment of the European Union.
4-The area dominated by authoritarian societies and the islamic driver ( The Islamic world and Africa) will only get 3.5% of the world GNI with 34% of the world population
5-The European Union share will fall from 31% to 19% in spite of the enlargement to the Balkans and Turkey.
The fifteen major economic powers are/or will be ( In $Billion ): The increase to come (55,000 $Billion) will occur in the golden area (85%). As a result, this area will represent 74.5% of the world GNI. .
-In 2004: USA: 12,150; Japan:4,750; Germany: 2,490; China: 2,130; United Kingdom: 2,020; France: 1,860; Italy: 1,500; Canada: 900; Spain: 880; Mexico: 700; India: 680; Korea: 670; Brazil: 550; Australia: 541; Netherlands: 515. These countries represent 82% of the GNI and 55% of the world population.
-In 2030: USA: 26,000; China: 18,000; Japan: 6,990; India: 4,760; United Kingdom: 3,320; Germany: 3,100; Korea 3,100; France 2,500; Russia: 2,215; Canada: 1,950; Italy: 1875; Spain 1550; Mexico 1,520; Australia: 1,500; Brazil: 1,190. The countries represent 84%of the World GNI and 52% of the population.
At first glance, the major economic powers will not change too much: The USA will remain the first economic power. Only one country, Russia, will enter the club. On the other hand, the ranking differs with China, India and Korea outpacing most of the European countries.
213-Income repartition
The Global GNI pictures the economic power. The income per capita (GNI/Population) represents the well being of the population. According to the World Bank, the world economy is divided into the following income groups: Low Income= $825 or less; Lower Middle Income= $826 to $3,255; Upper Middle Income= $3,256 to $10,065; and High Income= $10,066 or more. The next drawing shows the repartition of the world population (In %) into these income groups in 2004 and 2030.
DRAWING 6
-----------------2004---------------------------------2030
These stats picture some important evolutions.
1-in 2030, 34% of the world population, will be on an income that exceeds $10,000 per capita (16% in 2004)
2-The most important fact is the growing Middle class: High and Upper Middle income groups will represent 61% of the world population in 2030 ( 25% in 2004). For example, China and India's middle class will sharply increase (650 million expected in China by 2030). In turn, this greater middle class will mean a consumption explosion and will boost the world economy.
3-As a result, the percentage of poor people (Lower Middle Income en Low income) will decrease from 75% to 39% and will concentrate in South Asia (Except India) and in Africa. Large segments of the world population will endure a greater poverty than in 2004. For example, the situation in Sub Saharan Africa will be catastrophic: The GNI per capita ( $355 in 2004-Except South Africa ) will drop to $290 in 2030.
4-The inequalities will rise. In 2004 the income of the hyper rich ( North America- More than $30,000 per capita ) is about 60 fold the average low income (500). In 2030, it will represent 140 fold ! ( However, bear in mind that these growing inequalities are also caused by the compounded interests: Suppose two persons A and B with respectively 100 and 1000. Suppose A enjoys a growth rate of 10% and B only 3. The difference (1000-100=900) will increase until year 21 and only begins to decrease after this date. As long as developed countries have a positive growth rate, the inequalities may only increase in the short term).
22-Causes
According to our methodology, the causes of these contrasted evolutions are connected to the paradigms and the main drivers at work.
In North America, Central america, Oceania, and many countries of North East, South and South East Asia the main paradigm is the liberal society and its global driver (Freedom of consciousness, creativity). In some other Asian countries, the paradigm is not completely established ( China is not yet a democracy). However, the economic components of the global driver (Creativity, entrepreneurial spirit) are working on the fast lane. By the same token, the Far East of Europe (Russia, Ukraine) is also on this trend with bright economic prospects.
On the other hand, since September 2001, the islamic driver is prevalent in countries based on the authoritarian paradigm. As a result, the GNI of the Middle East and North Africa ( Without Israel ) is expected to slowly evolve. The islamic driver also plays a major role in some countries of South Asia ( Pakistan ) and South East Asia ( Indonesia and maybe Malaysia) and finally in the Sub Saharan Africa.
The most fascinating fact is the shift of paradigm occurring in the European Union. Since the 18th, Europe was the cradle of Civilization and its paradigm had been based on the Free society. Presently, the European Union is giving up its values, adopts the cultural relativism and tends toward the islamic values in the long term. As a result, creativity and the growth prospects are rapidly declining. South America, just like the European Union, also endures a shift in paradigm. In the 1990, the region was clearly in the globalization. Thanks to a dreadful depression in the 2000, the South American paradigm is shifting toward a mixture of Communism and Populism. As a result, the future growth will be limited.
23-Consequences
The main consequence is obvious: All the increase of population will occur in the countries dominated by the islamic driver. All the increase of wealth will occur in the globalizing world. As a result, we may expect a new world divide: Free societies versus islamic societies. We cannot agree with the CIA diagnosis that posits: "We now view it (The globalization) more as a “mega-trend”—a force so ubiquitous that it will substantially shape all of the other major trends in the world of 2020". According to our own diagnosis , the globalization will be limited to the golden area in 2030.
In poor countries, the economic collapse will have major consequences in the political domain ( See below ).
Even in the rich countries the inequalities could rise. The growing middle class in China and India also means the emergence of an huge well educated work force at low cost compared to wages in the US or Europe. The blue collars in the rich countries (And also the white collars) will endure a severe competition and their wages could be downgraded. On the other hand, the Asian rise in consumption will offer new opportunities and new jobs in the advanced economy. Unfortunately, those who are expected to lose their jobs are not the same as those who can benefit of the new jobs linked to new opportunities. New jobs will be driven by technological change. European Union which imports poor migrants and exports its scientist will endure the main shock of this evolution. Its blue collars and even its middle class could heavily suffer of this trend.
In the very rich countries, we may expect that all the basic requirements will be covered in 2030. According to this fact, what could be the meaning of the $72000 income per capita expected in the US by 2030? We think that instead of working more and more to consume more and more goods with a decreasing utility, people will favor leisure and free time. This fact could have a strong influence on the economic trend. Right now, it is yet occurring with the increase of retired persons ( It is also why the argument about the need to replace aged by migrants is deprived of any economic ground ). However due to the present inequalities even in the rich countries, we expect that the choice between leisure and work will not intervene before 2030.
24-Uncertainties
According to the CIA survey, some experts believe that Globalization would be endangered by a new pandemic if the death toll rose into the millions in several major countries. In our opinion, since such a pandemic would mainly hit poor countries with low GNI, its result should be a low impact on the world economy.
Some facts such as conventional wars, religious and ethnics wars, terrorist strikes are mainly related to the islamic driver and have a high probability. However, they have yet been taken in account in our future trends analysis. On the other hand, a major terrorist strike has also a high probability. Happening in the US, it could result in a sudden collapse of the world economy. Happening in Europe, it will have lower consequences because national markets are more separated. Clearly, this high probability event is the major uncertainty. However we can expect that the US will apply some sound recommendations (See below)
Regarding other events that could have a great impact on the world economy, we have listed a nuclear war, a revolution in China or a great depression in the US. The experts think that these events have a low probability.