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Национальный минерально-сырьевой университет «Горный»

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18 12 2018 STRATEGY 2019 Dont Stop Believing RUS

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vk.com/id446425943																				71
	РЫНОК АКЦИЙ			КРАТКИЙ ОБЗОР КОМПАНИЙ
	Рис. 164. Полюс Золото: краткий обзор

	Polyus Gold					Prices			17A		18E		19E		20E	Valuation	17A	18E	19E	20E
	Bloomberg ticker	PLZL LI		Price	37	Gold Price - Market US$/oz			1,275		1,350		1,400		1,400	EV/EBITDA	7.6	6.5	4.8	5.3
	GDRs, mn	267		PO	50											P/E	8.0	7.7	5.2	5.7

	Last reported	3Q18		Upside	36%											P/B	17.5	12.8	5.3	3.5
	RUB/USD spot	66.4		Rating	BUY											FCF yield	4.7%	7.9%	10.7%	17.8%

																Dividend yield	6.0%	6.0%	8.2%	7.4%
	Market value	$mn				Operating data			17A		18E		19E		20E	Target valuation	17A	18E	19E	20E
	Market cap	9,884				Ore processed, kt			28,663		34,700		40,500		40,500	EV/EBITDA	9.7	8.3	6.1	6.8
	Last reported ND	3,029				Average grade, g/t		2.70		2.51		2.56		2.38		P/E	10.8	10.4	7.1	7.8

	MI	86				Recovery, %			82.7%		81.3%		83.1%		83.1%	P/B	23.8	17.4	7.2	4.7
	EV	12,999				Gold sales, koz		2,158		2,440		2,909		2,731

	Income statement	17A	18E	19E	20E	Balance sheet			17A		18E		19E		20E	Cash flow	17A	18E	19E	20E
	Revenue	2,721	3,381	4,174	3,921	Non-current assets			4,558		3,812		3,873		3,928	Operating CF	1,292	1,508	1,650	2,236
	EBITDA	1,702	1,987	2,691	2,437	Current assets		1,889		2,496		3,031		2,970		CAPEX+M&A	-831	-468	-353	-263

	Net income	1,241	1,288	1,890	1,720	Total assets			6,447		6,308		6,904		6,899	Investing CF	-618	-468	-353	-263
						Shareholders' equity		564		773		1,856		2,845		Financing CF	-1,224 -1,201 -1,185 -1,518

	GDRs, mn	267	267	267	267	Non-current liabilities			5,374		4,775		4,303		3,360	Net chng in cash	-550	-161	112	455
	EPGDR	4.65	4.82	7.07	6.44	Current liabilities		417		666		652		600		Cash at end	1204	1579	1691	2146

	DPGDR	2.21	2.23	3.02	2.74	Total equity & liabilities			6,447		6,308		6,904		6,899	Free cash flow	461	782	1058	1762
	Payout ratio, % NI	48%	46%	43%	42%

						LT debt			4,269		3,991		3,519		2,576	OCF per GDR	4.8	5.6	6.2	8.4
	EBITDA margin	63%	59%	64%	62%	ST debt		12		240		212		155		FCF per GDR	1.7	2.9	4.0	6.6

	Net margin	46%	38%	45%	44%	Total debt			4,281		4,231		3,731		2,731
	ROA	19%	20%	27%	25%	Net debt		3,077		2,540		1,585		636

	ROE	n/m	167%	102%	60%	Net debt to EBITDA			1.8		1.3		0.6		0.3
															Источник: данные компании, Bloomberg, оценки АТОНа
	Рис. 165. ТМК: краткий обзор

	TMK						Prices		17A		18E		19E	20E		Valuation	17A	18E	19E	20E
	Bloomberg ticker	TMKS LI		Price	3.4		Scrap Russia, $/t	357		373		363		363		EV/EBITDA	6.0	4.8	4.3	4.3
	GDRs, mn	258		PO	6.0		HRC Russia, $/t	550		574		559		559		P/E	n/m	5.1	3.2	3.1

	Last reported	3Q18		Upside	77%		Scrap North America, $/t	410		743		658		624		P/B	1.0	0.9	0.7	0.6
	RUB/USD spot	66.4		Rating	BUY		HRC North America, $/t	686		1,019		934		900		FCF yield	neg	24%	32%	33%

																Dividend yield	5%	5%	8%	8%
	Market value	$mn					Sales, kt		17A		18E		19E	20E		Target valuation	17A	18E	19E	20E
	Market cap	876					OCTG	1,765		1,944		2,090		2,222		EV/EBITDA	7.1	5.7	5.1	5.1
	Last reported ND	2,624					LDP	249		350		340		340		P/E	n/m	9.0	5.7	5.4

	MI	38					Line + industrial	1,791		1,769		1,809		1,809		P/B	1.8	1.5	1.3	1.1
	EV	3,537					Total	3,805		4,063		4,239		4,370

	Income statement	17A	18E	19E	20E		Balance sheet		17A		18E		19E	20E		Cash flow	17A	18E	19E	20E
	Revenue	4,395	5,107	5,330	5,512		Non-current assets	2,913		2,845		2,781		2,720		Operating CF	312	685	716	719
	EBITDA	592	738	825	826		Current assets	2,624		2,610		2,805		2,917		CAPEX+M&A	-236	-200	-200	-200

	Net income	30	173	272	285		Total assets	5,537		5,455		5,586		5,637		Investing CF	-235	-182	-183	-179
																Financing CF	121	-526	-406	-502

	GDRs mn	258	258	258	258		Shareholders' equity	883		1,013		1,217		1,430
	EPGDR	0.11	0.67	1.05	1.10		Non-current liabilities	2,866		2,693		2,611		2,448		Net chng in cash	198	-23	126	39

	DPGDR	0.16	0.17	0.26	0.28		Current liabilities	1,738		1,699		1,708		1,708		Cash at end	491	468	594	633
	Payout ratio	137%	25%	25%	25%		Total equity & liabilities	5,537		5,455		5,586		5,637		Free cash flow	-189	214	277	289

	EBITDA margin	13%	14%	15%	15%		LT debt	2,663		2,491		2,409		2,246		OCF per GDR	1.2	2.7	2.8	2.8
	Net margin	1%	3%	5%	5%		ST debt	601		562		544		507		FCF per GDR	-0.7	0.8	1.1	1.1

	ROA	1%	3%	5%	5%		Total debt	3,264		3,052		2,952		2,752
	ROE	3%	17%	23%	21%		Net debt	2,773		2,585		2,358		2,120

							Net debt to EBITDA	4.7		3.5		2.9		2.6
															Источник: данные компании, Bloomberg, оценки АТОНа

vk.com/id446425943
	РЫНОК АКЦИЙ		КРАТКИЙ ОБЗОР КОМПАНИЙ
						Банки и финансы
	Рис. 166. Сбербанк: краткий обзор, млрд руб.
						Valuation	17	18E	19E	20E
	Bloomberg ticker	SBER RX		Price	195	P/E	5,9	5,1	4,8	4,2
	Com. Shares, mn	21 587		TP	300	P/B	1,3	1,1	1,0	0,9
	Rating	BUY		Upside	54%	DPS, com	12,0	17,9	20,2	23,2
	Bloomberg ticker	SBERP RX		Price	171	DPS, pref	12,0	17,9	20,2	23,2
	Pref. shares. mn	1 000		TP	250	Dividend yield	6,2%	9,2%	10,4%	11,9%
	Rating	BUY		Upside	46%	Dividend yield	7,0%	10,5%	11,8%	13,6%
	Market cap, $mn	83 585				ROA	2,9%	3,0%	3,0%	3,1%

Bank metrics	17	18E	19E	20E
Provisions. % of loans	7,1%	6,6%	6,1%	5,6%

Cost of risk	1,5%	1,2%	1,2%	1,2%
Reported NPLs (90+)	4,2%	4,2%	4,2%	4,2%

Reserve coverage	157%	168%	157%	146%
C/I ratio	35,3%	34,4%	33,1%	30,5%

Assets yield	7,3%	7,1%	6,9%	6,9%

Market cap, RUBbn	4 768				ROE	23,9%	23,3%	21,7%	22,0%
Income statement	17	18E	19E	20E	Balance sheet	17	18E	19E	20E	Capital ratios	17	18E	19E	20E
Net interest income	1 452	1 443	1 454	1 548	Loan portfolio	18 488	20 524	23 181	26 537	Tier 1 CAR	11,4%	12,3%	12,6%	13,0%
Net F&C income	394	466	533	603	Other assets	8 624	9 055	9 197	8 966	Total CAR	13%	13%	13%	13%

Other income	57	114	141	190	Total assets	27 112	29 578	32 377	35 503	Tier 1 Basel 3	14,9%	15%	-	-
Operating costs	-673	-696	-705	-714	Deposit accounts	19 814 21 559 23 812 26 309				Leverage	7,9	7,5	7,2	7,0

Provisioning	-287	-251	-280	-317	Other liabilities	3 862	4 063	4 099	4 137
Net income	749	861	914	1 048	Equity	3 436	3 957	4 466	5 057

					Total equity & liabil	27 112	29 578	32 377	35 503
										Источник: данные компании, оценки АТОНа

Рис. 167. TCS Group: краткий обзор, млрд руб.

				Valuation	17	18E	19E	20E	Bank metrics	17	18E	19E	20E
Bloomberg ticker	TCS LI	Price, $	17,3	P/E	10,8	8,0	6,2	5,7	Provisions. % of loans	18,1% 12,9%		9,0%	8,4%

GDRs. mn	181	TP, $	22	P/B	4,9	3,8	3,1	2,3	Cost of risk	6,5%	6,5%	6,5%	9,0%
Market cap. $mn	3 077	Upside	29%	DPS, RUB	74	94	103	93	Reported NPLs (90+)	9,0%	9,5%	10,0% 10,0%

Market cap. RUBbn	206	Rating	BUY	Dividend yield	7,2%	7,5%	8,5%	9,0%	Reserve coverage	143%	95%	84%	92%
Free float. %	48%			ROA	8,6%	8,5%	8,6%	7,8%	C/I ratio	44,3% 41,8% 38,9% 38,3%

Free float. $mn	1 483			ROE	53,4%	54,0%	54,4%	46,2%	Assets yield	26,4%	25,7%	24,8%	22,7%

Income statement	17	18E	19E	20E	Balance sheet	17	18E	19E	20E	Capital ratios	17	18E	19E	20E
Net interest income	46,1	57,7	68,8	74,0	Loan portfolio	140	175	224	276	Tier 1 CAR	15%	16%	17%	18%

Net F&C income	9,9	15,7	19,5	23,0	Other assets	129	166	205	225	Total CAR	22%	21%	21%	21%
Other income	2,6	5,1	7,1	8,5	Total assets	269	341	429	501	N1.0 RAS	16%	15%	-	-

Operating costs	-25,9	-32,8	-37,1	-40,4	Deposit accounts	179	240	312	367
Provisioning	-7,6	-12,1	-15,3	-18,2	Other liabilities	48	47	49	45

Net income	19,0	25,9	33,1	36,1	Equity	42	54	67	89
					Total equity & liabil	269	341	429	501
										Источник: данные компании, оценки АТОНа

Рис. 168. Банк Санкт-Петербург: краткий обзор, млрд руб.

				Valuation	17	18E	19E	20E	Bank metrics	17	18E	19E	20E
Bloomberg ticker	BSPB RX	Price	50	P/E	3,3	3,0	2,7	2,3	Provisions. % of loans	11,0% 11,9% 11,2% 12,1%
GDRs. mn	500	TP	74	P/B	0,4	0,3	0,3	0,3	Cost of risk	2,7%	2,3%	2,0%	1,7%
Market cap. $mn	376	Upside	48%	DPS. RUB	2,0	3,3	3,7	4,4	Reported NPLs (90+)	-	-	-	-
Market cap. RUBbn	24 978	Rating	BUY	Dividend yield	4,0%	6,7%	7,4%	8,8%	Reserve coverage	-	-	-	-
Free float. %	25%			ROA	1,2%	1,3%	1,4%	1,6%	C/I ratio	42%	42%	42%	42%
Free float. $mn	94			ROE	11,4%	11,1%	11,0%	11,7%	NIM	3,8%	3,9%	3,8%	4,0%

Income statement	17	18E	19E	20E	Balance sheet	17	18E	19E	20E	Capital ratios	17	18E	19E	20E
Net interest income	20,5	22,1	24,0	25,3	Loan portfolio	318	342	377	404	Tier 1 CAR	12,4% 13,4% 14,2% 15,4%

Net F&C income	5,2	6,3	7,2	8,3	Other assets	289	290	293	297	Total CAR	2,7%	2,3%	2,0%	1,7%
Other income	6,7	4,5	3,0	3,0	Total assets	607	632	670	701	N1.0 RAS	14%	14%	-	-

Operating costs	-13,5	-13,9	-14,6	-15,3	Deposit accounts	353	371	389	409
Provisioning	-9,6	-8,6	-8,1	-7,5	Other liabilities	183	183	193	193

Net income	7,5	8,3	9,2	11,0	Equity	71	79	88	99
					Total equity & liabil	607	632	670	701
										Источник: данные компании, оценки АТОНа

vk.com/id446425943																									73
	РЫНОК АКЦИЙ		КРАТКИЙ ОБЗОР КОМПАНИЙ
	Рис. 169. ВТБ: краткий обзор, млрд руб.
											Valuation		17	18E			19E	20E	Bank metrics	17			18E	19E	20E
	Bloomberg ticker	VTBR RX		Price			0,037				P/E		4.0	2.8			2.4	1.9	Provisions, % of loans	7.0%		6.4%		6.4%	6.3%

	Com shares. bn	12 961			TP		0,07				P/B		0.74	0.51		0.46		0.40	Cost of risk	1.8%		1.5%		1.3%	1.0%
	Pref. shares. bn	24 478		Upside			89%				DPS, RUB		0.0035	0.0035		0.0039		0.0039	Reported NPLs (90+)	6.3%		6.1%		5.8%	5.6%
	Market cap, $mn	7 139		Rating			BUY				Dividend yield		9.3%	9.3%		10.4%		10.4%	Reserve coverage	111%		106%		111%	114%
	Market cap, RUBbn	474									ROA		0.9%	1.3%		1.4%		1.6%	C/I ratio	44%		41%		43%	41%
	Free float, %	39%									ROE		8.3%	11.1%		12.1%		13.9%	NIM	4.1%		3.9%		3.8%	3.8%
	Free float, $mn	2 784

	Income statement	17	18E		19E		20E				Balance sheet		17	18E			19E	20E	Capital ratios	17			18E	19E	20E
	Net interest income	460	494		534		575				Loan portfolio		9 171	9 863		10 688		11 757	Tier 1 CAR	13,1%		13,8%		13,6%	13,7%

	Net F&C income	95	107		123		141				Other assets		3 838	3 801		3 965		4 025	Total CAR	14,8%		15,2%		14,7%	14,6%
	Other income	34	89		43		47				Total assets		13 009	13 664		14 653		15 782	N1.0 RAS	11.3%		10.8%		-	-

	Operating costs	-261	-282	-298			-315				Deposit accounts		9 145	9 949		10 824		11 778
	Provisioning	-169	-152 -137 -120								Other liabilities		2 385	2 121		2 139		2 168

	Net income	120	170		198		247				Equity		1 480	1 594		1 690		1 837
											Total equity & liabil		13 009	13 664		14 653		15 782
																			Источник: данные компании, оценки АТОНа
	Рис. 170. Московская биржа: краткий обзор, млн руб.
												Valuation		17	18E		19E	20E	Trading volumes. trn RUB		17		18E	19E	20E
	Bloomberg ticker	MOEX RX				Price				90		P/E		9.9	9.4		8.0	7.6	Equities	9.2		10.6		12.7	15.2

	Shares. mn	2 279				TP				127		P/B		1.7	1.6		1.5	1.5	Bonds		26.2		33.4	38.4	42.2
	Market cap, $mn	3 034				Upside				44%		EV/EBITDA		4.3	3.9		3.6	3.4	Money market	377.1 396.0 415.8					436.6

	Market cap, RUBbn	201				Rating			HOLD			DPS, RUB		8.0	7.5		9.3	10.0	FX		347.7		365.1	383.3	402.5
	EV, RUBbn	121										Dividend yield		9.0%	8.5%		10.6% 11.3%		Total	84.5		88.7		93.2	97.8

	Free float, %	55%										ROA		0.7%	0.7%		0.8%	0.9%
	Free float, $mn	1 669										ROE	16.6% 17.5% 19.5% 19.8%

	Income statement	17	18E			19E				20E		Balance sheet. RUBbn		17	18E		19E	20E	Margins		17		18E	19E	20E
	F&C income	21 208	23 993		27 162				29 188			Financial assets	2 982 3 010 3 044 3 076						EBITDA margin	72.9% 73.0% 73.2%					73.2%

	Interest income	16 040	17 355			17 775			18 525			Other assets		46	44		44	44	Net margin		52.6%		50.2%	54.0%	54.2%
	Total income	38 539	42 848		46 437				49 213			Total assets	3 028 3 055 3 088 3 120

	Operating costs	-13 432	-14 506			-15 377		-16 146				Participant's balances		467	490		515	540
	EBITDA	28 100	31 294		34 013				36 020			Other liabilities		346	366		382	403

	Net income	20 255	21 500			25 058			26 677			Equity		121	124		132	138
												Total equity & liabil	3 028 3 055 3 088 3 120
																			Источник: данные компании, оценки АТОНа

vk.com/id446425943																															74
	РЫНОК АКЦИЙ				КРАТКИЙ ОБЗОР КОМПАНИЙ
										Электроэнергетика
	Рис. 171. РусГидро: краткий обзор (млрд руб., если не указано иное)

	RusHydro								Macro			17A				18E			19E			20E		Valuation		17A		18E		19E		20E
	Bloomberg ticker	HYDR RX				Price		0.51 Electricity price, Europe, RUB/MWh			1,181 1,216 1,253 1290													EV/EBITDA		3.1	2.9		2.7		2.6

	Shares, mn		426,289			TP		0.97	Electricity price, Siberia, RUB/MWh		843				885				921			958		P/B		0.3		0.3		0.3		0.3
	Last reported		2Q18			Upside	92%		Capacity price, Europe, kRUB/MW/m		121				126				130			140		P/E		9.0	3.5		3.3		3.1

	RUB/USD spot		66.4			Rating		HOLD	Capacity price, Siberia, kRUB/MW/m		194				211				224			231		FCF yield, %		neg		1%		24%		28%
																								Dividend yield, %		5%	12%		15%		17%

	Market value		$mn						Operational data			17A				18E			19E			20E		Efficiency		17A		18E		19E		20E
	Market cap		$3,243						Installed capacity, hydro, GW		30.5				27.6				28.4			28.4		EBITDA/kW, $/kW		45		47		49		52
	EV	$4,791							Installed capacity, thermal, GW		8.5				9.5				9.6			9.6		FCF/kW, $/kW		3	1		21		26

									Electricity output, bn kWh		127.0			121.0				124.7			126.7			Load factor, hydro, %		40%		36%		35%		36%
									Capacity sold under CSA, MW		320				657			1,497 1,497						Load factor, thermal, %		39%	41%		44%		45%


	Income statement		17A	18E		19E		20E	Balance sheet			17A				18E			19E			20E		Cash flow statement		17A		18E		19E		20E
	Revenue		348.1	392.1	422.0		440.8		Cash and equivalents		70.2				19.6				21.1			22.0		CF operating		78.1		111.4		103.2		106.3
	EBITDA adj	102.8		109.5	118.5		122.9		PP&E		799.9 901.3 924.3 939.8													CF investing		-60.0 -109.7 -51.8 -45.5

	Net income		24.0	61.2	66.2		69.0		Other non-current assets		73.3				28.1				28.1			28.1		- capex		-71.7	-109.7			-51.8		-45.5
									Total assets		1,028			1,067 1,097 1,117										- M&A		0.0	0.0		0.0		1.0

	EPS		0.06	0.14	0.16		0.16		ST debt		78.6				33.6				36.2			37.2		CF financing		-15.1		-4.6		-49.9		-59.8
	BVPS	1.63		1.73	1.81		1.89		LT debt		90.9			134.0 122.2 104.7										- dividends		-19.8 -26.0 -32.6					-35.3

	DPS		0.03	0.06	0.08		0.08		Shareholders' equity		692.8			737.8				771.4			805.1			- change in LT debt		-30.7		29.7		-9.2		-16.5
	Payout ratio	47%		50%	50%		150%		Minority interest		2.7				4.3				4.3			4.3		Net change in cash		2.8	-50.6		1.5		0.9

									Total equity & liabil		1,028			1,067				1,097			1,117
	EBITDA margin	30%		28%	28%		28%																	Free cash flow		6.4	1.7		51.4		60.7

	Net margin		7%	16%	16%		16%
	ROE	3%		8%	9%		9%		Net debt		99.4			148.0 137.3 119.9										OCF per share		0.18	0.26		0.24		0.25

	ROIC		6%	7%	8%		8%		Net debt/EBITDA		1.0				1.4				1.2			1.0		FCF per share		0.02		0.00		0.12		0.14
																				Источник: данные компании, Bloomberg, оценки АТОНа
	Рис. 172. Юнипро: краткий обзор (млрд руб., если не указано иное)

	Unipro									Macro			17A				18E			19E			20E		Valuation	17A		18E		19E		20E
	Bloomberg ticker	UPRO RX				Price	2.70			Electricity price, Europe, RUB/MWh	1,181				1,216				1,253			1,290			EV/EBITDA	6.1	6.1		5.5		4.0

	Shares, mn	63,049				TP		3.18		Electricity price, Siberia, RUB/MWh			843				885			921			958		P/B	1.5		1.5		1.5		1.4
	Last reported		3Q18			Upside	18%			Capacity price, Europe, kRUB/MW/m 121					126				130			140			P/E	5.1	10.7		9.9		6.6

	RUB/USD spot	66.4				Rating		BUY		Capacity price, Siberia, kRUB/MW/m			194				211			224			231		FCF yield, %	11%		2%		7%		16%
																									Dividend yield, %	8%	7%		8%		12%


	Market value		$mn							Operational data			17A				18E			19E			20E		Efficiency	17A		18E		19E		20E
	Market cap	$2,566								Installed capacity, GW			10.4				11.2			11.2			11.2		EBITDA/kW, $/kW	44		38		41		59
	EV	$2,446								Capacity sold under CSA, MW	1.6				1.6				2.4			2.4			FCF/kW, $/kW	31	4		18		41

										Electricity output, bn kWh			48.2				53.1			54.6			58.5		Load factor, %	53%		58%		56%		60%
										Heating output, mn Gcal	2.2				2.3				2.3			2.3


	Income statement		17A	18E		19E		20E		Balance sheet			17A				18E			19E			20E		Cash flow statement	17A		18E		19E		20E
	Revenue	76.5		84.3	91.1		106.5			Cash and equivalents			3.1				1.7			1.8			3.9		CF operating	33.5		25.4		27.2		34.3
	EBITDA	26.7		26.7	29.6		40.8			PP&E	106.2				119.3				125.7			123.3			CF investing	-15.8 -22.3 -14.6					-6.3

	Net income	33.6		15.9	17.3		25.7			Other non-current assets			1.2				1.9			1.9			1.9		- capex	-14.7		-22.3		-14.6		-6.3
										Total assets	126.0				132.1				139.4			140.6			- M&A	0.0	0.0		0.0		0.0

	EPS	0.53		0.25	0.27		0.41			ST debt			0.0				0.0			0.0			0.0		CF financing	-16.4		-8.1		-12.5		-25.9
	BVPS	1.80		1.74	1.80		1.88			LT debt	0.0				0.0				0.0			0.0			- dividends	-14.0 -12.0 -13.8 -20.6

	DPS	0.22		0.19	0.22		0.33			Shareholders' equity			113.5				110.0			113.4			118.6		- change in LT debt	0.0		0.0		0.0		0.0
	Payout ratio		n/m	36%	87%		120%			Minority interest	0.2				0.2				0.2			0.2			Net change in cash	1.3	-1.4		0.1		2.1

										Total equity & liabil			126.0				132.1			139.4			140.6
	EBITDA margin	35%		32%	33%		38%																		Free cash flow	18.8	3.1		12.7		28.0

	Net margin	44%		19%	19%		24%
	ROE	30%		14%	15%		22%			Net debt	-3.1				-1.7				-1.8			-3.9			OCF per share	0.5	0.4		0.4		0.5

	ROIC	25%		12%	12%		12%			Net debt/EBITDA			neg				neg			neg			neg		FCF per share	0.3		0.0		0.2		0.4
																				Источник: данные компании, Bloomberg, оценки АТОНа

vk.com/id446425943																																										75
	РЫНОК АКЦИЙ						КРАТКИЙ ОБЗОР КОМПАНИЙ
	Рис. 173. Энел Россия: краткий обзор (млрд руб., если не указано иное)

	Enel Russia																Macro			17A		18E				19E			20E		Valuation			17A			18E			19E			20E
	Bloomberg ticker			ENRU RX					Price			1.07					Electricity price, Europe, RUB/MWh			1,181		1,216			1,253			1,290			EV/EBITDA			3.4			3.6			3.5			3.4

	Shares, mn			35,372					TP			1.31					Electricity price, Siberia, RUB/MWh			843		885				921			958		P/B			0.9			0.9			0.8			0.8
	Last reported			3Q18					Upside			23%					Capacity price, Europe, kRUB/MW/m		121			126				130			140		P/E			4.4			4.9		4.9			5.0

	RUB/USD spot			66.4					Rating		HOLD						Capacity price, Siberia, kRUB/MW/m			194		211				224			231		FCF yield, %			21%			9%			7%			neg
																															Dividend yield, %				6%		12%		13%			13%


	Market value			$mn													Operational data			17A		18E				19E			20E		Efficiency			17A			18E			19E			20E
	Market cap			$568													Installed capacity, GW			9.4		9.4				9.4			9.4		EBITDA/kW, $/kW				32		28			28			30
	EV	$893															Capacity sold under CSA, MW		0.8			0.8				0.8			0.8		FCF/kW, $/kW				14		6		4				neg

																	Electricity output, bn kWh			42.0		43.4				42.2			42.4		Load factor, %			51%			53%			51%			51%
																	Heating output, mn Gcal		5.2			5.6				5.6			5.6


	Income statement			17A		18E			19E			20E					Balance sheet			17A		18E				19E			20E		Cash flow statement		17A				18E			19E			20E
	Revenue			74.4	78.6		79.6					82.4					Cash and equivalents			6.0		1.6				1.6			1.6		CF operating		14.1				14.5			14.8			15.3
	EBITDA	17.5			16.5		16.9					17.4					PP&E		60.2			61.6				66.7			75.4		CF investing			-5.8			-11.3 -12.2 16.3

	Net income			8.6	7.7		7.7					7.5					Other non-current assets			3.3		4.1				4.1			4.1		- capex			-6.2			-11.3			-12.2			16.3
																	Total assets		81.0			79.2				84.5			93.6		- M&A			0.0			0.0		0.0			1.0

	EPS			0.24	0.22		0.22					0.21					ST debt			12.8		1.2				1.2			1.3		CF financing			-5.6			-7.9			-2.6			1.0
	BVPS	1.17			1.24		1.31					1.38					LT debt		11.1			17.1				19.5			25.4		- dividends			-2.4 -4.4 -5.0								-5.0

	DPS			0.07	0.13		0.14					0.14					Shareholders' equity			41.4		43.6				46.2			48.7		- change in LT debt			-4.3			-3.5			2.4			6.0
	Payout ratio	55%			52%		65%					65%					Minority interest		0.0			0.0				0.0			0.0		Net change in cash			0.2			-4.4		0.0			0.1

																	Total equity & liabil			81.0		79.2				84.5			93.6
	EBITDA margin	23%			21%		21%					21%																			Free cash flow			7.9			3.2		2.6			-1.0

	Net margin			12%	10%		10%					9%
	ROE	21%			18%		17%					15%					Net debt		17.9			16.8				19.1			25.1		OCF per share			0.4			0.4		0.4			0.4

	ROIC			11%	11%		10%					10%					Net debt/EBITDA			1.0		1.0				1.1			1.4		FCF per share			0.2			0.1			0.1			0.0
																									Источник: данные компании, Bloomberg, оценки АТОНа
	Рис. 174. ФСК: краткий обзор (млрд руб., если не указано иное)

	FGC																	Macro		17A		18E		19E			20E			Valuation		17A				18E			19E			20E
	Bloomberg ticker		FEES RX							Price				0.16				Transmission tariff, kRUB/MW/m	160			167		172		177				EV/EBITDA		3.2			3.6				3.6			3.5

	Shares, bn		1,275							TP						0.22		Tariff hike, %	6%			4%		3%			3%			P/B		0.2				0.3			0.2			0.2
	Last reported			3Q18						Upside				41%																P/E		2.7			3.6				4.4			5.2

	RUB/USD spot		66.4							Rating						BUY														FCF yield, %		17%				14%			15%			24%
																														Dividend yield, %		10%			8%				8%			8%

	Market value			$mn														Operational data		17A		18E		19E			20E
	Market cap		$2,999															Declared capacity, GW	87.6			85.1		85.1			85.1
	EV	$5,969																Transmission throughput, bn kWh 540.5 541.4 542.0 542.5

																		Grid losses, bn kWh	24.3			25.1		25.1			25.1
																		Loss rate, %	4.5%			4.6%		4.6%		4.6%


	Income statement			17A		18E			19E						20E			Balance sheet		17A		18E		19E			20E			Cash flow statement		17A				18E			19E			20E
	Revenue		242.2		221.2			220.9					221.2					Cash and equivalents	43			11		11			11			CF operating		120.8				117.2		112.6			111.0
	EBITDA adj	123.6			109.5		109.7					111.6						PP&E	934			930		956		957				CF investing		-76.5			-83.9			-78.2				-58.7

	Net income		72.8		55.0			45.5						38.5				Other non-current assets	145			124		124			124			- capex		-87.0				-88.6		-83.4			-64.0
																		Total assets	1,184 1,137 1,153 1,150											- M&A		0.0			0.0				0.0			1.0

	EPS		0.057		0.043			0.036					0.030					ST debt	24			20		19			27			CF financing		-46.1				-34.4		-33.5				-51.0
	BVPS	0.629			0.616		0.639					0.656						LT debt	234			207		195		158				- dividends		-19.4			-16.6			-16.6				-16.6

	DPS		0.015		0.013			0.013					0.013					Shareholders' equity	802			786		815			837			- change in LT debt		-7.7				-20.3		-19.4				-26.6
	Payout ratio	29%			23%		30%							36%				Minority interest	1			0		0		0				Net change in cash		-1.9			-31.2				0.0			0.0

																		Total equity & liabil	1,184		1,137		1,153				1,150
	EBITDA margin	51%			50%		50%							50%																Free cash flow		33.8			28.6			29.2				47.0

	Net margin		30%		25%			21%						17%
	ROE	9%			7%		6%							5%				Net debt	215.3 215.6 203.3 173.7											OCF per share		0.09			0.09			0.09				0.09

	ROIC		6%		5%			4%						4%				Net debt/EBITDA	1.7			2.0		1.9			1.6			FCF per share		0.03				0.02		0.02				0.04
																									Источник: данные компании, Bloomberg, оценки АТОНа

vk.com/id446425943																										76
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	Рис. 175. Россети: краткий обзор (млрд руб., если не указано иное)

	Rosseti										Macro		17A		18E		19E		20E	Valuation	17A		18E		19E		20E
	Bloomberg ticker		RSTI RX				Price		0.74		Effective tariff, kRUB/MW/m		1,048		1,114		1,168		1,228	EV/EBITDA	1.9		1.9		1.8		1.7
	Shares, mn	198,828					TP	1.0			Tariff hike, %	7%		6%		5%		5%		P/B	0.1	0.1		0.1		0.1

	Last reported		3Q18				Upside		35%											P/E	1.5		2.0		2.0		1.9
	RUB/USD spot	66.4					Rating			HOLD										FCF yield, %	neg	15%		37%		54%

																				Dividend yield, %	1%		3%		3%		3%

	Market value		$mn								Operational data		17A		18E		19E		20E
	Market cap	$2,267									Electricity throughput, bn kWh	748.2		736.4		739.0		741.6

	EV		$8,060								Grid losses, bn kWh		76.0		78.6		78.8		79.0
											Loss rate, %	9.2%		9.6%		9.6%		9.6%


	Income statement		17A		18E		19E			20E	Balance sheet		17A		18E		19E		20E	Cash flow statement	17A		18E		19E		20E
	Revenue		948.3	957.0			995.0			1,041.7	Cash and equivalents		102		19		20		21	CF operating	212.4		229.2		257.6		263.4
	EBITDA adj	277.0		281.6		290.5		309.1			PP&E	1,940		1,963		2,020		2,049		CF investing	-188.8 -205.9 -201.7 -182.8

	Net income		102.3	75.5			77.0			80.0	Other non-current assets		176		137		137		137	- capex	-215.7		-205.9		-201.7		-182.8
											Total assets	2,409		2,428		2,497		2,540		- M&A	0.0	0.0		0.0		1.0

	EPS		0.515	0.379			0.387			0.402	ST debt		51		109		95		50	CF financing	-8.5		-170.6		-55.2		-79.8
	BVPS	5.320		6.485		6.825		7.175			LT debt	507		457		456		463		- dividends	-9.6	-12.9		-12.9		-12.9

	DPS		0.006	0.025			0.025			0.025	Shareholders' equity		1,058		1,289		1,357		1,427	- change in LT debt	-0.1		-109.0		-95.0		-50.0
	Payout ratio	2%		13%		17%		17%			Minority interest	366		338		337		336		Net change in cash	15.1	-82.9		0.8		0.9

											Total equity & liabil		2,409		2,428		2,497		2,540
	EBITDA margin	29%		29%		29%		30%												Free cash flow	-3.3	23.3		55.9		80.7

	Net margin		11%	8%			8%			8%
	ROE	10%		6%		6%		6%			Net debt	456.2		547.1		531.4		491.8		OCF per share	1.07	1.15		1.30		1.32

	ROIC		6%	6%			6%			6%	Net debt/EBITDA		1.6		1.9		1.8		1.6	FCF per share	-0.02		0.12		0.28		0.41
																			Источник: данные компании, Bloomberg, оценки АТОНа

vk.com/id446425943																																						77
	РЫНОК АКЦИЙ							КРАТКИЙ ОБЗОР КОМПАНИЙ
													Потребительский сектор
	Рис. 176. Магнит: краткий обзор
	MGNT RX, RUBbn												Valuation					17A	18E				19E			20E	Operating data			17A			18E				19E		20E
	Bloomberg ticker			MGNT RX						Price		3,719	EV/EBITDA				5.3		5.3				4.6			4.1	Number of stores		16,350				18,336				21,120		24,094
	Shares, mn	101.9								PO	4,970		P/E			10.7			10.3				8.9		7.4		Selling space, ths sqm		5,755			6,347				6,951		7,537

	Last reported			3Q18					Upside			34%	P/S				0.3		0.3				0.3			0.3	LfL sales		-3.4%				-2.0%				2.3%		2.7%
									Rating			BUY	FCF yield					neg	6.4%		14.9% 16.3%						LfL traffic		-3.2%			-1.4%				0.9%		1.2%

													Dividend yield				3.7%		4.4%			4.5%				6.7%	LfL cheque		-0.2%				-0.6%				1.4%		1.5%
	Market value												Target Valuation					17A	18E				19E			20E	Performance
	Market cap			379,008									EV/EBITDA				8.0		8.0				6.9			6.2	1 month (%)			1%			52-week high						6,829
	EV	483,665											P/E			14.3			13.8		11.9				9.9		3 month (%)			-8%			52-week low 3,291

													P/S				0.4		0.4				0.4			0.3	YtD (%)			-41%
	Income statement				17A			18E		19E		20E	Balance sheet					17A	18E				19E			20E	Cash flow			17A			18E				19E		20E
	Revenue	1,143					1,235		1,356		1,489		Non-current assets			337			357				374		390		Operating cash flow			61		78				114		123

	EBITDA				92		92		106			119	Current assets				190		199				193			221	CAPEX			-74			-54				-58		-61
	Net income				36		37		42		51		Total assets			526			556				566		612		Investing cash flow			-74		-60				-59		-63

																											Financing cash flow			15			-23				-47		-25
	Shares, mn				102								Total equity			259			263				288		314

	EPS				349		360		417			500	Non-current liabilities				109		119				96			96	Net increase in cash			2			-4				8		35
	DPS				138		162		167		250		Current liabilities			158			174				182		201		Cash at end			18		14				22		57

	Payout ratio				39%		45%		40%			50%	Total equity, liabilities				526		556				566			612	Free cash flow			-13			24				57		62

	EBITDA margin			8.0%			7.4%		7.8%			8.0%	LT debt				86		93				73			73	OCF per share			599			770				1,120		1,207
	Net margin	3.1%					3.0%		3.1%		3.4%		ST debt			40			43				34		34		FCF per share			-123		238				555		607

	ROA			7.2%			6.8%		7.6%			8.6%	Total debt				126		136				106			106
	ROE	15.6%					14.0%		15.4%		16.9%		Net debt			108			123				85		50

													Net debt to EBITDA				1.2		1.3				0.8			0.4
																											Источник: Bloomberg, оценки АТОНа
	Рис. 177. X5 Retail Group: краткий обзор
	FIVE LI, RUBbn										Valuation			17A	18E			19E		20E				Operating data				17A			18E					19E			20E
	Bloomberg ticker		FIVE LI					Price		24.7	EV/EBITDA			6.7	6.0			5.3		4.7				Number of stores				12,121			14,150			15,920				17,621
	Shares, mn	271.6						PO	31.6		P/E			14.2	13.3	11.0			9.2					Selling space, ths sqm				5,480		6,383					7,152			7,858

	Last reported		3Q18					Upside		28%	P/S			0.3	0.3			0.3		0.2				LfL sales				5.4%			0.8%				2.4%			1.3%
								Rating		BUY	FCF yield			neg	2.3%	4.3%			7.6%					LfL traffic				3.0%		0.3%					-0.2%			-0.9%

											Dividend yield			4.9%	4.5%			5.4%		6.5%				LfL cheque				2.3%			0.5%				2.6%			2.2%
	Market value										Target Valuation			17A	18E			19E		20E				Performance
	Market cap		444,348								EV/EBITDA			8.1	7.2			6.4		5.7				1 month (%)				4%					52-week high					44.6

	EV	646,198									P/E			18.1	17.0	14.2			11.8					3 month (%)				11%					52-week low					19.1

											P/S			0.4	0.4			0.3		0.3				YtD (%)				-35%
	Income		17A			18E		19E		20E	Balance sheet			17A	18E			19E		20E				Cash flow				17A			18E					19E			20E

	Revenue	1,295			1,530		1,762		2,001		Non-current assets			406	444	466			481					Operating cash flow				59		87						88		98

	EBITDA		96			108		122		136	Current assets			159	187			222		248				CAPEX				-78			-77					-69		-64
	Net income	31			33		40		48		Total assets			565	630	688			729					Investing cash flow				-87		-95						-73		-69

																								Financing cash flow				38			16					-4		-29
	Shares, mn	272									Total equity			158	170	190			215

	EPGDR		116			123		148		178	Non-current liabilit			143	184			204		201				Net increase in cash				9				9				11		0
	DPGDR	80			74		89		107		Current liabilities			264	277	294			314					Cash at end				28		36						47		47

	Payout ratio		69%			60%		60%		60%	Total equity, liabilit			565	630			688		729				Free cash flow				-20			10					19		34

	EBITDA margin		7.4%			7.0%		6.9%		6.8%	LT debt			136	176			196		193				OCF per GDR				216			321					322		360
	Net margin	2.4%			2.2%		2.3%		2.4%		ST debt			59	56	52			50					FCF per GDR				-73		37						70		124

	ROA		6.0%			5.6%		6.1%		6.8%	Total debt			194	232			248		243
	ROE	22.0%			20.3%		22.3%		23.9%		Net debt			167	196	201			196

											Net debt/EBITDA			1.7	1.8			1.7		1.4

vk.com/id446425943																																78
	РЫНОК АКЦИЙ						КРАТКИЙ ОБЗОР КОМПАНИЙ
	Рис. 178. Лента: краткий обзор
	LNTA LI, RUBbn											Valuation		17A			18E		19E		20E		Operating data			17A		18E			19E	20E
	Bloomberg ticker				LNTA LI				Price	3.3		EV/EBITDA		5.9			5.5		5.2		5.0		Number of stores		328		380			417		447

	Shares, mn	487.1							PO	4.0		P/E		8.0			7.8		6.9		6.4		Selling space, ths sqm		1,382		1,486		1,544			1,589

	Last reported				1H18		Upside			21%		P/S		0.3			0.3		0.2		0.2		LfL sales		0.9%		2.7%			0.8%		0.3%
							Rating HOLD					FCF yield		neg			2.6% 14.2% 17.7%						LfL traffic		-1.4%		0.8%		-0.9%			-0.9%

																							LfL cheque		2.3%		1.9%			1.7%		1.2%
	Market value											Target Valuation		17A			18E		19E		20E		Performance
	Market cap				105,867							EV/EBITDA		7.8			7.3		6.8		6.6		1 month (%)		-6%			52-week high				7.3

	EV	209,258										P/E		9.8			9.4		8.3		7.8		3 month (%)		-15%				52-week low			3.2

												P/S		0.4			0.3		0.3		0.3		YtD (%)		-44%
	Income statement				17A	18E			19E	20E		Balance sheet		17A			18E		19E		20E		Cash flow			17A		18E			19E	20E
	Revenue	365				416	453			476		Non-current assets		178			192		194		192		Operating cash flow		24		25		29			31

	EBITDA				35	38		41		42		Current assets		68			78		92		116		CAPEX		-27		-22			-14		-12
	Net income	13				14	16			17		Total assets		247			270		285		308		Investing cash flow		-27		-21		-14			-12

																							Financing cash flow		5		0			-6		3
	Shares, mn	487										Total equity		72			85		101		118

	EPGDR				27	28		32		34		Non-current liabil		71			73		70		71		Net increase in cash		1		4			9		22
	DPGDR											Current liabilities		104			112		115		119		Cash at end		14		18		28			50

	Payout ratio											Total equity & liabil		247			270		285		308		Free cash flow		-3		3			15		19

	EBITDA margin				9.7%	9.1%		9.0%		8.8%		LT debt		62			62		59		61		OCF per GDR		49		51			60		63
	Net margin	3.6%				3.3%	3.4%			3.5%		ST debt		45			45		43		44		FCF per GDR		-6		6		31			39

	ROA				5.6%	5.3%		5.6%		5.6%		Total debt		107			107		102		105
	ROE	20.4% 17.4% 16.8% 15.3%										Net debt		93			89		74		55

												Net debt to EBITDA		2.6			2.3		1.8		1.3
																										Источник: Bloomberg, оценки АТОНа
	Рис. 179. O’КЕЙ: краткий обзор
	OKEY LI, RUBbn												Valuation			17A		18E		19E		20E		Operating data		17A		18E			19E	20E
	Bloomberg ticker		OKEY LI						Price		1.6		EV/EBITDA			6.5		7.8		6.8		5.8		Number of stores		138		160			189	199

	Shares, mn	269.1							PO	1.4			P/E		9.0		166.9		30.1		16.4			Selling space, ths sqm	578		624		680			681

	Last reported		1H18						Upside		-13%		P/S			0.2		0.2		0.2		0.2		LfL sales		-1.4%		-4.6%			1.3%	1.1%
									Rating		SELL		FCF yield			neg	21.9%			neg	6.8%			LfL traffic	-2.2%		-2.5%		-0.9%			-1.1%

													Dividend yield			5.1%		6.7%		1.2%		2.5%		LfL cheque		0.8%		-2.1%			2.2%	2.2%
	Market value												Target Valuation			17A		18E		19E		20E		Performance
	Market cap		28,565										EV/EBITDA			5.3		6.3		5.5		4.7		1 month (%)		3%		52-week high				2.7
	EV	60,753											P/E		7.9		146.0		26.4		14.4			3 month (%)	-19%				52-week low			1.4

													P/S			0.1		0.1		0.1		0.1		YtD (%)		-36%
	Income statement			17A		18E			19E		20E		Balance sheet			17A		18E		19E		20E		Cash flow		17A		18E			19E	20E
	Revenue	177				168	176			185			Non-current assets		58		61		63		66			Operating cash flow	1		13		7			10

	EBITDA		9			8			9		10		Current assets			33		27		25		26		CAPEX		-3		-7			-7	-8
	Net income	3				0	1			2			Total assets		91		88		89		91			Investing cash flow	-3			-7			-7	-8

																								Financing cash flow		-2		-7			-3	-3
	Shares, mn	269											Total equity		24		23		23		24

	EPGDR		12			1			4		6		Non-current iabilities			26		22		20		18		Net increase in cash		-4		-1			-3	-1
	DPGDR	5				7	1			3			Current liabilities		42		43		46		49			Cash at end	8			7			4	3

	Payout ratio		46%			n/a			36%		41%		Total equity & liabilit			91		88		89		91		Free cash flow		-2		6			0	2

	EBITDA margin		5.3%			4.7%			5.1%		5.7%		LT debt			25		21		19		17		OCF per GDR		4		49			27	36
	Net margin	1.8%				0.1%	0.5%			0.9%			ST debt		12		10		10		9			FCF per GDR	-7			23			0	7

	ROA		3.3%			0.2%			1.1%		1.9%		Total debt			36		31		29		26
	ROE	12.6%				0.8%	4.1%			7.2%			Net debt		29		24		25		23

													Net debt to EBITDA			3.1		3.1		2.8		2.2
																										Источник: Bloomberg, оценки АТОНа

vk.com/id446425943																									79
	РЫНОК АКЦИЙ					КРАТКИЙ ОБЗОР КОМПАНИЙ
										Удобрения
	Рис. 180. Акрон: краткий обзор

	ACRON									Prices			17A		18E		19E			20E	Valuation	17A	18E	19E	20E
	Bloomberg ticker		AKRN RX				Price		4,600	Urea Black Sea			213		250		270			270	EV/EBITDA	9.0	7.1	5.9	5.9
	Shares, mn		40.5					PO 4,300		DAP Gulf Nola		326			400		430		430		P/E	12.8	11.6	7.8	7.5

	GDRs equivalent		405.3				Upside		-7%	EBITDA/t			85		87		92			102	P/B	2.0	2.0	1.8	1.6
	Last reported		3Q18				Rating HOLD			Cash cost/t		168			181		191		201		FCF yield	3%	7%	9%	9%

	RUB/USD spot		66.4																		Dividend yield	7%	7%	7%	7%

	Market value		$mn							Sales, kt			17A		18E		19E			20E	Target valuation	17A	18E	19E	20E
	Market cap		2,756							Nitrogen fertilizers			2,690		2,740		2,890			2,890	EV/EBITDA	8.7	6.8	5.7	5.7
	ND + MI - Gr. Azoty		1,608							Complex fertilizers		2,819			2,819		2,889		2,889		P/E	12.2	11.1	7.5	7.1

	EV		4,035							Total sales			6,060		6,110		6,400			6,470	P/B	1.9	1.9	1.7	1.5
	Income statement		17A		18E		19E		20E	Balance sheet			17A		18E		19E			20E	Cash flow	17A	18E	19E	20E
	Revenue		1,617		1,726		1,893		1,958	Non-current assets			2,547		2,458		2,489			2,600	Operating cash flow	285	471	516	521
	EBITDA		509	598		701			700	Current assets		696			729		892		1,049		CAPEX+M&A	-194	-268	-255	-274

	Net income		244		250		359		377	Total assets			3,243		3,186		3,381			3,649	Investing cash flow	-175	-264	-252	-267
										Shareholders' equity		1,578			1,487		1,606		1,783		Financing cash flow	-322	-96	-86	-123

	Shares, mn		41		41		41		41	Non-current liabilities			1,072		1,064		1,111			1,169	Net increase in cash	-212	111	178	131
	EPS ($)		6.0	6.2		8.9			9.3	Current liabilities		593			636		663		697		Cash at end	248	253	384	515

	DPS ($)		5.5		4.9		4.9		4.9	Total equity & liabilit			3,243		3,186		3,381			3,649	Free cash flow	91	203	261	248
	Payout ratio		91%	80%		56%			53%

										LT debt			965		965		1,016			1,073	OCF per GDR	7.0	11.6	12.7	12.9
	EBITDA margin		31%	35%		37%			36%	ST debt		328			329		346		365		FCF per GDR	2.3	5.0	6.4	6.1

	Net margin		15%		14%		19%		19%	Total debt			1,293		1,294		1,362			1,439
	ROA		7%	8%		11%			11%	Net debt		1,045			1,041		978		924

	ROE		16%		17%		24%		22%	Net debt to EBITDA			2.0		1.7		1.4			1.3
																				Источник: данные компании, Bloomberg, оценки АТОНа
	Рис. 181. Фосагро: краткий обзор

	PHOSAGRO									Prices	17A				18E		19E		20E		Valuation	17A	18E	19E	20E
	Bloomberg ticker	PHOR LI					Price	13.1		DAP Gulf Nola	359				390		390		390		EV/EBITDA	8.9	6.1	5.8	5.6
	Shares, mn		129.5				PO	17.5		Urea Black Sea	219				235		240		240		P/E	15.3	9.6	9.0	9.0

	GDRs equivalent		388.5			Upside		34%		EBITDA/t	108				148		152		151		P/B	3.4	2.8	2.4	2.2
	Last reported		3Q18			Rating		BUY		Cash cost/t	275				283		294		294		FCF yield	neg	9%	10%	11%

	RUB/USD spot		66.4																		Dividend yield	3%	6%	6%	7%

	Market value		$mn							Sales mt	17A				18E		19E		20E		Target valuation	17A	18E	19E	20E
	Market cap		5,082							Phosphate-based	6,489			6,889		6,989		7,162			EV/EBITDA	10.3	7.0	6.8	6.4
	Last reported ND		1,842							Nitrogen-based	1,616			1,916		1,916		1,916			P/E	16.1	10.1	9.5	9.5

	Last reported MI		3							Total fertilizer	8,105			8,805		8,905		9,079			P/B	4.2	3.4	3.0	2.6
	EV		6,927

	Income statement		17A		18E	19E		20E		Balance sheet	17A				18E		19E		20E		Cash flow	17A	18E	19E	20E
	Revenue		3,110	3,791		3,965		4,038		Non-current assets	3,254			3,321		3,392		3,333			Operating cash flow	514	968	995	1,026

	EBITDA		879	1,302		1,350		1,369		Current assets	1,113			1,251		1,358		1,392			CAPEX+M&A	-684	-559	-365	-351
	Net income		434	696		742		720		Total assets	4,367			4,572		4,751		4,725			Investing cash flow	-589	-366	-357	-337

	GDRs		389	389		389		389		Shareholders' equity	1,705			2,047		2,379		2,599			Financing cash flow	-5	-515	-582	-670
	EPGDR		1.12	1.79		1.91		1.85		Non-current liabilities 1,499				1,388		1,278		1,114			Net increase in cash	-80	86	57	18

	DPGDR		0.55	1.02		1.07		1.10		Current liabilities	1,163			1,136		1,093		1,012			Cash at end	47	133	190	202
	Payout ratio		49%	57%		56%		59%		Total equity & liabilit	4,367			4,572		4,751		4,725			Free cash flow	-170	409	630	675

	EBITDA margin		28%	34%		34%		34%		LT debt	1,346			1,236		1,126			966		OCF per GDR	1.32	2.49	2.56	2.64
	Net margin		14%	18%		19%		18%		ST debt	764				702		639		549		FCF per GDR	-0.44	1.05	1.62	1.74

	ROA		11%	16%		16%		15%		Total debt	2,110			1,937		1,765		1,515
	ROE		27%	37%		34%		29%		Net debt	2,063			1,804		1,575		1,313

										Net debt to EBITDA		2.3			1.4		1.2		1.0
																				Источник: данные компании, Bloomberg, оценки АТОНа

vk.com/id446425943															80
	РЫНОК АКЦИЙ		КРАТКИЙ ОБЗОР КОМПАНИЙ
						Транспорт
	Рис. 182. Аэрофлот: краткий обзор, млрд руб.
						Valuation	17	18E	19E	20E	Operating data	17	18E	19E	20E
	Bloomberg ticker	AFLT RX		Price	104	EV/EBITDA	4,2	3,9	3,3	2,9	Passengers. mn	49	53	57	58

	Shares. mn	1 110		TP	160	EV/EBITDAR	5,2	4,9	5,1	5,1	Domestic	28	30	31	31
	Last reported	3Q18		Upside	54%	P/E	7,1	7,5	5,1	4,2	International	21	24	26	27

	Market cap	115		Rating	BUY	P/B	2,5	2,2	2,0	1,7	ASK. bn pass*km	157	166	180	184
	Net debt	40				FCF yield	52%	28%	23%	25%	Load factor	82,9%	82,4%	81,6%	81,4%

	Op. lease	599				EPS. RUB	18,9	13,7	20,2	24,6	RPK. bn pass*km	124,8	136,9	147,3	150,1
	EV	758				DPS. RUB	10,2	7,5	10,7	12,9	Number of planes	309	347	362	369

						Dividend yield	9,4%	7,2%	10,3%	12,5%

	Income statement	17	18E	19E	20E	Balance sheet. RUBbn	17	18E	19E	20E	Margins	17	18E	19E	20E
	Revenue	533	610	673	714	Non-current assets	155	150	147	145	Operating CF	47,4	41,7	36,5	39,7

	Operating costs	-493	-582	-637	-672	Current assets	168	175	187	195	CAPEX+M&A	-7,7	-8,4	-9,3	-10,2
	EBITDA	56,0	43,0	50,9	56,6	Total assets	323	326	334	340	Investing CF	14,4	-8,4	-9,3	-10,2

	EBITDAR	122	129	147	157	Shareholders' equity	65	56	62	75	Financing CF	-46,8	-34,3	-27,0	-29,7
	Net income	23	17	24	29	Non-current liabil	115	105	95	77	Net chng in cash	14,5	-0,6	0,3	-0,2

	EBITDA margin	10,5%	7,1%	7,6%	7,9%	Current liabilities	141	161	174	182	Cash at end	46	45	46	45
	EBITDAR margin	7,6%	4,6%	5,5%	6,0%	Total equity & liabil	306	322	338	339	Free cash flow	61,8	33,3	27,2	29,4

	Net margin	3,9%	2,5%	3,3%	3,8%						OCF per share	42,7	37,6	32,9	35,7
											Источник: данные компании, оценки АТОНа

Рис. 183. Globaltrans: краткий обзор, млрд руб.

				Valuation	17	18E	19E	20E	Operating data	17	18E	19E	20E
Bloomberg ticker	GLTR LI	Price, $	9,2	EV/EBITDA	5.6	5.2	5.3	5.2	Av. fleet in operation	56 597 56 964 59 764 63 564

Shares. mn	179	PO, $	14,3	P/E	9.8	8.0	7.9	7.6	Gondolas	42 452	43 742	46 242	49 742
Last reported	1H18	Upside	55%	P/B	2.4	2.4	2.4	2.3	Tank rail cars	11 852 10 675 10 675 10 675

		Rating	BUY	FCF yield	16%	15%	15%	16%	Owned fleet	-	-	-	-
				Dividend yield	13.1% 14.6% 14.0% 15.5%				Gondolas	-	-	-	-

									Tank railcars	-	-	-	-

Market value	RUBbn	USD mn	Target valuation	17	18E	19E	20E	Spot rates. RUB per day	17	18E	19E	20E
Market cap	121 008	1 833	EV/EBITDA	7,1	6,5	6,5	6,4	Gondolas	1200	1366	1366	1366

Last reported ND	17 106	516	P/E	12,6	11,2	11,1	11,2	Tank rail cars	449	450	451	452
Last reported MI	12 140	184	P/B	2,7	2,4	2,2	2,0

EV	150 255	2 277

Income statement	17	18E	19E	20E	Balance sheet	17	18E	19E	20E	Cash flow	17	18E	19E	20E
Revenue	52,1	58,8	60,9	64,7	Non-current assets	66,9	68,9	71,9	74,7	Operating CF	23,9	25,8	25,7	27,4

EBITDA	25,7	31,2	31,6	33,3	Current assets	10,6	9,8	8,7	8,7	CAPEX+M&A	-4,9	-7,6	-8,1	-8,1
Net income	12,3	15,8	16,0	16,7	Total assets	77,4	78,7	80,7	83,4	Investing CF	-4,0	-7,6	-8,1	-8,1

					Shareholders' equity	50,6	51,9	53,6	55,1	Financing CF	-21,4	-19,6	-18,9	-19,8
Shares mn	179	179	179	179	Non-current liabil	15,0	15,0	15,0	16,0	Net chng in cash	0,2	-1,4	-1,4	-0,5

EPS	68,8	88,6	89,6	93,5	Current liabilities	11,8	11,9	12,1	12,4	Cash at end	5,0	3,5	2,2	1,7
DPS	89,0	89,0	83,6	92,2	Total equity & liabil	77,4	78,7	80,7	83,4	Free cash flow	19,8	18,2	17,6	19,3

Payout ratio	129%	101%	93%	99%
					LT debt	9,1	9,1	9,1	10,1	OCF per share	133,5	144,4	143,6	153,1

EBITDA margin	49%	53%	52%	51%	ST debt	7,3	7,3	7,3	7,3	FCF per share	111,0	101,8	98,2	107,7
Net margin	24%	27%	26%	26%	Total debt	16,3	16,3	16,3	17,3

ROA	17,7%	23,9%	24,2%	24,9%	Net debt	11,4	12,8	14,2	15,7
ROE	30,0%	40,6%	40,6%	41,9%	Net debt to EBITDA	0,4	0,4	0,4	0,5
										Источник: данные компании, оценки АТОНа

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