18 12 2018 STRATEGY 2019 Dont Stop Believing RUS
.pdfvk.com/id446425943 |
|
РЫНОК АКЦИЙ |
НЕДВИЖИМОСТЬ |
Недвижимость
Рынок проигнорировал сильные результаты
Сводка рекомендаций |
|
|
||
Компания |
Тикер |
Рек-я |
Цель, руб. |
П.роста |
Группа ЛСР |
LSRG RX |
HOLD |
950 |
43% |
Эталон |
ETLN LI |
BUY |
$4.0/GDR |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
Группа ПИК |
PIKK RX |
BUY |
400 |
13% |
Осн. показатели компаний, 2019 |
|
|||
|
P/E |
P/BV |
P/СЧА |
EV/EBITDA |
ЛСР |
5.0 |
n/a |
0.3 |
4.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
Эталон |
3.6 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
3.1 |
ПИК |
7.7 |
n/a |
1.0 |
5.9 |
Источник: Bloomberg, оценки АТОНа
Рис. 144. Недвижимость, динамика с начала года
20%
15%
15%
9%
10%
5%
-23%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-19%
-25%
ETLN LI LSRG RX PIKK RX IMOEX RX
Источник: Bloomberg, оценки АТОНа
© ООО «АТОН», 2018. Все права защищены.
Прошедший год (2018) был чрезвычайно успешным для публичных девелоперов – они достигли рекордных объемов продаж на фоне роста спроса при снижении процентных ставок по ипотечным кредитам. Однако, несмотря на это, год был плохим для динамики их акций, которые существенно упали с начала года из-за негативных корпоративных событий и низкой ликвидности. Мы надеемся, что и Группа ЛСР, и Эталон могут восстановиться в 2019 благодаря сохранению высоких объемов продаж, сильным финансовым результатам и хорошей дивидендной доходности, которая предполагается на уровне около 12% для обеих компаний. Однако ключевым драйвером остается общий настрой инвесторов относительно российского рынка. Скорее всего сначала должны продемонстрировать хорошую динамику российские «голубые фишки», а затем вернется интерес к менее ликвидным акциям второго эшелона, таким как ЛСР и Эталон.
Продолжится ли ипотечный бум в 2019? Возможно, но более умеренными темпами
Прошедший год (2018) оказался выдающимся для девелоперов в связи с бурным ростом ипотеки. За 9М18 количество ипотечных кредитов увеличилось на 47% г/г до более 1 млн, а в стоимостном выражении они выросли на 61% г/г до 2 трлн руб. Это абсолютно невероятные темпы роста по сравнению с историческими показателями, и они являются результатом снижения процентных ставок по ипотечным кредитам до 9.4% к сентябрю 2018 против 10.05% год назад. Тем не менее снижение ставок прекратилось с сентября, а некоторые банки даже немного повысили ставки, вслед за ключевой ставкой ЦБ, хотя они остаются ниже 10%. Если предположить, что российские банки будут сохранять выдачу ипотечных кредитов на том же уровне, что и в предыдущие месяцы (240 млрд руб. в месяц), то общий объем выпуска составит 2.9 трлн руб., тогда как общий объем ипотечного рынка увеличится на 45% и составит почти 10 трлн руб. в 2019. Это означает, что он удвоится всего за два года.
Спрос и предложение в сегменте жилой недвижимости
Баланс спроса и предложения различается в крупнейших городах России (Москва, Санкт-Петербург, Екатеринбург) и других регионах страны. Основной спрос на жилую недвижимость обеспечивается крупнейшими городами, где располагаемый доход более стабилен, а ипотечный кредит является основным драйвером роста. В частности, количество подписанных договоров о долевом участии (ДДУ) в Москве подскочило на 48% г/г за 10М18, а количество сделок продаж жилья увеличилось на 26%. Интересно отметить, что этот рост ускоряется м/м, и в октябре достиг рекордных цифр. Те же тенденции мы наблюдаем в Санкт-Петербурге и Екатеринбурге. Предложение жилья также остается высоким и удовлетворяет спрос, хотя оно растет умеренными темпами. Между тем, в текущей рыночной конъюнктуре девелоперы повышают цены. На первичном рынке цены в России выросли на 7% за 9М18, тогда как в Москве они прибавили 12%, а в Санкт-Петербурге – 6.4%, в соответствии с данными Росстата. Мы полагаем, что цены могут продолжить рост в 2019 (+ 5-10%), если спрос останется на высоком уровне прошлого года. Более жесткое регулирование в недвижимости также заставляет девелоперов повышать цены.
Регулирование: вводятся эскроу-счета
В июле 2018 в регулировании отрасли появилось много изменений, включая более жесткий контроль над прибылью и расходами девелоперов с помощью специальных счетов, открытых в уполномоченных банках (мы подробно описывали эти изменения в наших отраслевых отчетах в течение года). Ни ПИК, ни ЛСР, ни Эталон не рассматривают новое регулирование как риск для своего бизнеса, а скорее, как возможность увеличить долю на рынке. А вот многие мелкие и средние игроки, скорее всего, покинут рынок, поскольку соблюдение регулирования им обойдется дорого. Возможность для крупных игроков заключается в том, что многие мелкие девелоперы и владельцы земли скорее всего будут более гибкими в отношении продажи земельных участков, что обеспечит покупки на более выгодных условиях. Основным регуляторным новшеством 2019 станет внедрение эскроу-счетов в российских банках для финансирования строительства. Новое регулирование будет распространяться только на новые проекты, начиная с 2019, и не окажет существенного влияния на
vk.com/id446425943НЕДВИЖИМОСТЬ
РЫНОК АКЦИЙ
© ООО «АТОН», 2018. Все права защищены.
62
финансовые показатели девелоперов на ранней стадии. Однако доля проектов, финансируемых через эскроу-счета, будет расти и в перспективе изменит финансовую отчетность девелоперов. Новый подход приведет к росту доли валового долга, что может представлять угрозу для девелоперов с большой долговой нагрузкой. На данном этапе внедрение эскроу-счетов обсуждается банками, девелоперами и властями, и, вероятно, окончательный подход будет одобрен где-то в начале 2019.
Группа ЛСР (LSRG RX; Держать; Цель – 950 руб.)
В течение 2018 мы сохраняли рекомендацию ДЕРЖАТЬ для ЛСР, и ожидали, что акции компании будут отставать от рынка из-за ее отрицательного свободного денежного потока (FCF) и повышения долговой нагрузки, и действительно, котировки упали на 23% с начала года. Тем не менее мы начинаем смотреть на акции более позитивно. За 9M18 объемы продаж выросли на впечатляющие 46% г/г до 620 тыс кв м; компания должна сдать 900 тыс кв м жилья в 2018 (против 640 тыс кв м в 2017), что соответствует ее прогнозам. Мы ожидаем, что в 2019 объемы продаж компании останутся на уровне 900 тыс – 1 млн кв м, что по-прежнему является высоким уровнем. Таким образом, мы ждем, что результаты по МСФО за 2018-19 могут существенно улучшиться по сравнению с показателями 2017-1П18. Мы также ожидаем, что ЛСР выйдет в плюс по FCF в 2019, что будет хорошо воспринято инвесторами, если это произойдет, и должно стать драйвером переоценки акций в следующем году. Кроме того, ЛСР может сохранить дивиденды на уровне предыдущих лет – 78 руб. на акцию, что предполагает дивидендную доходность 12.4%. ЛСР торгуется с мультипликатором P/NAV 2018П 0.34x, (с корректировкой на строительные материалы), который мы считаем относительно низким по сравнению с историческим средним значением 0.45x.
Группа Эталон (ETLN LI; Покупать; Цель – $4.7)
Эталон был нашим фаворитом среди девелоперов в 2018, но его акции демонстрировали слабую динамику (-32% г/г) из-за вопросов корпоративного управления, связанных с неопределенностью в структуре акционеров. Напомним, в 2017-18 было проведено два SPO, а затем динамику акций определяли спекуляции на рынке о том, что основатель и председатель правления компании планирует продать свою долю. Тем не менее компания генерирует высокий свободный денежный поток, который может быть направлен на дивиденды с подразумеваемой доходностью не менее 12%. За 9M18 объемы реализации недвижимости у Эталона увеличились на 19% до 417 тыс кв м, а в стоимостном выражении выросли на 32% до 44.3 млрд руб., что является сильным результатом. Компания ожидаемо улучшила свой целевой показатель реализации недвижимости на 2018 до 60.5 млрд руб. (+20% г/г) против 57 млрд руб. ранее. Эталон продолжит наращивать долю проектов в Москве – он нацелен на доли 50/50 в Москве и Санкт-Петербурге. Он также заинтересован в увеличении доли проектов бизнес-класса в своем портфеле, в то время как в прошлом компания в основном ориентировалась на сегмент Комфорт+. Мы подтверждаем наш позитивный взгляд на Эталон и сохраняем рекомендацию ПОКУПАТЬ и целевую цену без изменений, поскольку его операционные и финансовые результаты выглядят очень сильными, а акции торгуются с мультипликатором P/NAV всего 0.36x.
Группа ПИК (PIKK LI; Покупать, Цель – 400 руб.)
Бизнес-модель Группы ПИК основана на быстром строительстве больших объемов жилья эконом-класса. После приобретения Мортона – крупнейшего жилищного застройщика в Московской агломерации – в 2016 ПИК стал бесспорным лидером сектора жилого строительства в России, продавая почти 1.7-1.9 млн кв м в год. Среди ключевых приоритетов ПИК – повышение операционной эффективности, а не ускорение роста продаж, которые тем не менее увеличились на 6% г/г за 9М18. В частности, ПИК видит потенциал дальнейшего значительного сокращения затрат на строительство путем внедрения многих технологических усовершенствований в процессах строительства и проектирования. Компания тесно сотрудничает со своими поставщиками, требуя доступа к их структурам затрат, чтобы найти способы их сокращения. Компания считает, что в течение ближайших нескольких лет эти усилия приведут к существенному увеличению ее рентабельности. В некоторых своих проектах ПИК использует динамическое ценообразование, схожее с подходом авиакомпаний к системам бронирования, в соответствии с которым цены на квартиры меняются в зависимости от периода времени и спроса. Наконец, ПИК вкладывает значительные средства в развитие новых каналов продаж, в том числе, цифровых. Он также пытается упростить регистрацию прав собственности для своих клиентов, что снижает требования к оборотному капиталу. Нам нравится бизнес-модель Группы ПИК, и мы отмечаем, что свободный денежный поток компании является самым сильным среди публичных девелоперов, однако в настоящее время мы не видим краткосрочных катализаторов для акций.
|
vk.com/id446425943 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
|
РЫНОК АКЦИЙ |
|
НЕДВИЖИМОСТЬ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
63 |
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||||||
|
|
Рис. 145. Объемы строительства жилья в России (млн кв м) |
Рис. 146. Кол-во новых квартир в год (000) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
130 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
45% |
|
1,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
856 |
923 |
916 |
866 |
80 |
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
100 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
30% |
|
800 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
701 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
60 |
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
585 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
72 |
15% |
|
600 |
|
|
532 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
70 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
492 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
48 |
|
50 |
|
|
|
|
60 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
40 |
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
40 |
|
48 |
46 |
|
|
0% |
|
|
400 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
|
35 |
31 |
36 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
40 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-15% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
20 |
|
|
||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
200 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
36 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
40 |
48 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
29 |
|
|
|
31 |
|
35 |
32 |
33 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
26 |
27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||
|
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
-30% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||||
|
|
|
2007 |
2009 |
2011 2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2020П2025П |
|
|
0 |
|
|
2007 |
2009 |
2011 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
0 |
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
ИЖС |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Многоквартирные дома |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Кол-во квартир, 000 |
|
|
|
Средний размер квартиры, кв. м |
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
ИЖС, % |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Многоквартирные дома, % |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Источник: Росстат, оценки АТОНа |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Источник: Росстат, оценки АТОНа |
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||||||
|
|
Рис. 147. Объемы строительства /ввода в МА (млн кв м) |
|
|
|
|
Рис. 148. Кол-во подписанных ДДУв месяц |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
12.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7.9 |
|
|
6.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.8 |
4.5 |
|
|
6,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6.1 |
5.4 |
5.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
5.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
4.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
4.0 |
5.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.3 |
|
3.2 |
3.2 |
3.8 |
4.2 |
4.5 |
|
|
2,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||
|
|
1.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2011 |
2012 2013 |
2014 2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018П 2019П 2020П |
|
|
|
янв |
фев мар |
|
апр |
май |
июн |
июл |
авг |
сен |
окт |
ноя дек |
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Москва |
|
|
Московская область |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2015 |
|
|
2016 |
|
|
|
2017 |
|
|
|
2018 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Источник: Росстат, оценки АТОНа |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Источник: Росстат, оценки АТОНа |
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||||||
|
|
Рис. 149. Динамика цен на рынке первичного жилья, тыс. руб., |
Рис. 150. Разница в ценах между вторичным и первичным |
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
кв м |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
жильем в России |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
200 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
30% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
160 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
20% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
120 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
80 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
40 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2005 |
2007 |
2009 |
2011 |
2013 |
|
2015 |
2017 |
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||
|
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 3Q18 |
|
-10% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
Россия |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Москва |
|
|
|
|
|
|
-20% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
Москвоская область |
|
|
Санкт-Петербург |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Источник: Росстат, оценки АТОНа |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Источник: Росстат, оценки АТОНа |
|
|
|
|
© ООО «АТОН», 2018. Все права защищены.
vk.com/id446425943 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
РЫНОК АКЦИЙ |
|
КРАТКИЙ ОБЗОР КОМПАНИЙ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
64 |
||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Приложение: краткий обзор компаний |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Нефть и газ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Рис. 151. Роснефть: краткий обзор ($ млрд, если не указано иное) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
Rosneft |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Macro |
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
Valuation |
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
|
|
Bloomberg ticker |
|
ROSN LI |
|
|
Price |
|
$6.4 |
|
Brent oil price, $/bbl |
54 |
|
74 |
|
70 |
|
70 |
|
EV/EBITDA |
6.1 |
|
4.2 |
|
3.8 |
|
3.7 |
|
||||
|
Shares, mn |
10,598 |
|
|
|
TP |
$8.5 |
|
Urals oil price, $/bbl |
53 |
72 |
68 |
68 |
|
EV/DACF |
6.9 |
4.7 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
|
|||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
Last updated |
|
2Q18 |
|
|
|
Upside |
|
32% |
|
Crude oil MET, $/bbl |
19 |
|
28 |
|
29 |
|
32 |
|
P/E |
17.8 |
|
7.1 |
|
6.4 |
|
5.5 |
|
|||
|
RUB/USD spot |
66.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
Rating |
|
BUY |
Oil export duty rate, $/bbl |
12 |
18 |
14 |
11 |
|
FCF yield, % |
neg |
21% |
14% |
18% |
|
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
Brent spot, $/bbl |
|
$60.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RUB/USD avg FX |
58.3 |
|
62.6 |
|
64.0 |
|
61.5 |
|
Dividend yield, % |
2% |
|
3% |
|
7% |
|
7% |
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Market value |
|
$bn |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operational data |
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
Efficiency |
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
|||
|
Market cap |
$67.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liquids output, mmbpd |
4.5 |
4.7 |
4.9 |
5.0 |
|
EBITDA/boe, $/boe |
9.4 |
13.2 |
13.7 |
13.3 |
|
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
EV |
|
$119.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Marketable gas production, bcm |
69 |
|
69 |
|
81 |
|
87 |
|
Lifting costs, $/boe |
2.9 |
|
2.8 |
|
2.8 |
|
3.0 |
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total hydrocarbon output, mmboepd |
5.7 |
5.9 |
6.3 |
6.6 |
|
Refining costs, $/boe |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Refining throughput, mmbpd |
2.0 |
|
2.0 |
|
2.0 |
|
2.0 |
|
SG&A costs, $/boe |
1.4 |
|
1.4 |
|
1.4 |
|
1.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Income statement |
|
17A |
|
|
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
Balance sheet |
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
Cash flow statement |
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
|
|
Revenue |
102.1 |
|
|
127.8 |
|
126.5 |
132.8 |
|
Cash and equivalents |
5.6 |
17.7 |
25.1 |
33.2 |
|
CF operating |
19.9 |
28.7 |
21.2 |
23.9 |
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
EBITDA |
|
19.7 |
|
|
28.6 |
|
31.6 |
|
32.0 |
|
PP&E |
137.6 |
|
126.7 |
|
135.5 |
|
137.7 |
|
CF investing |
-19.9 |
|
-16.3 |
|
-11.4 |
|
-11.6 |
|
||
|
Net income |
3.8 |
|
|
9.5 |
|
10.7 |
12.3 |
|
Long-term investments |
15.5 |
13.0 |
13.8 |
14.0 |
|
- capex |
-15.8 |
-14.4 |
-11.4 |
-11.6 |
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total assets |
212.3 |
|
207.9 |
|
228.9 |
|
240.2 |
|
- M&A |
-8.1 |
|
-0.6 |
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
DACF, $ |
17.3 |
|
|
25.4 |
|
27.7 |
27.7 |
|
ST debt |
38.7 |
16.5 |
17.7 |
18.6 |
|
CF financing |
6.5 |
0.9 |
-3.7 |
-4.6 |
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
EPS, $ |
|
0.36 |
|
|
0.90 |
|
1.01 |
|
1.16 |
|
LT debt |
31.0 |
|
47.0 |
|
48.1 |
|
46.2 |
|
- dividends |
-1.8 |
|
-1.9 |
|
-4.7 |
|
-5.6 |
|
||
|
DPS, $ |
0.14 |
|
|
0.18 |
|
0.47 |
0.50 |
|
Shareholders' equity |
62.8 |
61.8 |
72.0 |
79.9 |
|
- change in LT debt |
5.9 |
3.8 |
-1.7 |
-2.1 |
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
Payout ratio |
|
50% |
|
|
50% |
|
50% |
|
50% |
|
Minority interest |
9.8 |
|
10.4 |
|
13.8 |
|
17.1 |
|
Net change in cash |
6.5 |
|
12.1 |
|
7.4 |
|
8.2 |
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total equity & liabil |
212.3 |
207.9 |
228.9 |
240.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
EBITDA margin |
|
19% |
|
|
22% |
|
25% |
|
24% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Free cash flow |
4.1 |
|
14.3 |
|
9.8 |
|
12.3 |
|
|
|
Net margin |
4% |
|
|
7% |
|
8% |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
ROE |
|
6% |
|
|
15% |
|
15% |
|
15% |
|
Net debt |
64.1 |
|
45.8 |
|
40.7 |
|
31.5 |
|
OCF per share |
0.5 |
|
2.7 |
|
2.0 |
|
2.3 |
|
||
|
ROIC |
5% |
|
|
12% |
|
13% |
12% |
|
Net debt/EBITDA |
3.2 |
1.6 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
|
FCF per share |
-0.9 1.3 0.9 1.2 |
|
|||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Источник: данные компании, Bloomberg, оценки АТОНа |
||||||||||||
|
Рис. 152. ЛУКОЙЛ: краткий обзор ($ млрд, если не указано иное) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
LUKOIL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Macro |
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
Valuation |
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
|
|
Bloomberg ticker |
|
LKOD LI |
|
|
Price |
|
$80 |
|
Brent oil price, $/bbl |
54 |
|
74 |
|
70 |
|
70 |
|
EV/EBITDA |
4.4 |
|
3.5 |
|
3.2 |
|
3.1 |
|
||||
|
Shares, mn |
750 |
|
|
|
|
|
TP |
$93 |
|
Urals oil price, $/bbl |
53 |
72 |
68 |
68 |
|
EV/DACF |
4.3 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.5 |
|
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
Last updated |
|
2Q18 |
|
|
|
Upside |
|
16% |
|
Crude oil MET, $/bbl |
19 |
|
28 |
|
29 |
|
32 |
|
P/E |
8.4 |
|
6.4 |
|
5.6 |
|
5.4 |
|
|||
|
RUB/USD spot |
66.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
Rating |
|
BUY |
Oil export duty rate, $/bbl |
12 |
18 |
14 |
11 |
|
FCF yield, % |
7% |
12% |
15% |
17% |
|
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
Brent spot, $/bbl |
|
$60.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RUB/USD avg FX |
58.3 |
|
62.6 |
|
64.0 |
|
61.5 |
|
Dividend yield, % |
4% |
|
4% |
|
5% |
|
5% |
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
Market value |
|
$bn |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operational data |
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
Efficiency |
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
|||
|
Market cap |
$60.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liquids output, mmbpd |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
|
EBITDA/boe, $/boe |
17.9 |
22.4 |
23.7 |
24.5 |
|
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
EV |
|
$63.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Marketable gas production, bcm |
26 |
|
29 |
|
32 |
|
32 |
|
Lifting costs, $/boe |
4.6 |
|
4.3 |
|
4.3 |
|
4.6 |
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total hydrocarbon output, mmboepd |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
|
Refining costs, $/boe |
4.8 |
5.0 |
5.2 |
5.5 |
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Refining throughput, mmbpd |
1.3 |
|
1.3 |
|
1.3 |
|
1.3 |
|
SG&A costs, $/boe |
3.6 |
|
3.2 |
|
4.2 |
|
4.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
Income statement |
|
17A |
|
|
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
Balance sheet |
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
Cash flow statement |
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
|
|
Revenue |
101.8 |
|
|
127.7 |
|
129.0 |
128.7 |
|
Cash and equivalents |
5.7 |
8.3 |
14.6 |
20.8 |
|
CF operating |
13.0 |
15.5 |
17.4 |
18.5 |
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
EBITDA |
|
14.3 |
|
|
18.2 |
|
19.6 |
|
20.6 |
|
PP&E |
62.1 |
|
56.8 |
|
62.3 |
|
64.6 |
|
CF investing |
-7.4 |
|
-8.2 |
|
-8.3 |
|
-8.5 |
|
||
|
Net income |
7.2 |
|
|
9.4 |
|
10.8 |
11.2 |
|
Other non-current assets |
1.9 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
|
- capex |
-8.8 |
-8.4 |
-8.3 |
-8.5 |
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total assets |
90.7 |
|
88.5 |
|
104.1 |
|
113.3 |
|
- M&A |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
DACF, $ |
14.6 |
|
|
17.1 |
|
17.3 |
18.1 |
|
ST debt |
2.2 |
2.1 |
2.4 |
2.7 |
|
CF financing |
-4.2 |
-4.2 |
-3.4 |
-4.1 |
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
EPS, $ |
|
9.6 |
|
|
12.6 |
|
14.4 |
|
14.9 |
|
LT debt |
8.5 |
|
6.6 |
|
6.1 |
|
4.8 |
|
- dividends |
-2.4 |
|
-2.4 |
|
-2.7 |
|
-2.9 |
|
||
|
DPS, $ |
3.3 |
|
|
3.4 |
|
3.8 |
4.1 |
|
Shareholders' equity |
60.5 |
59.8 |
71.9 |
81.4 |
|
- change in LT debt |
-1.0 |
-1.5 |
-0.7 |
-1.1 |
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
Payout ratio |
|
92% |
|
|
41% |
|
35% |
|
31% |
|
Minority interest |
0.1 |
|
0.1 |
|
0.2 |
|
0.2 |
|
Net change in cash |
1.2 |
|
2.5 |
|
6.4 |
|
6.2 |
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total equity & liabil |
90.7 |
88.5 |
104.1 |
113.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
EBITDA margin |
|
14% |
|
|
14% |
|
15% |
|
16% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Free cash flow |
4.2 |
|
7.2 |
|
9.1 |
|
10.0 |
|
|
|
Net margin |
7% |
|
|
7% |
|
8% |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
ROE |
|
12% |
|
|
16% |
|
15% |
|
14% |
|
Net debt |
5.0 |
|
0.4 |
|
-6.1 |
|
-13.3 |
|
OCF per share |
17.3 |
|
20.7 |
|
23.2 |
|
24.7 |
|
||
|
ROIC |
10% |
|
|
14% |
|
16% |
15% |
|
Net debt/EBITDA |
0.3 |
0.0 |
-0.3 |
-0.6 |
|
FCF per share |
5.6 |
9.6 |
12.1 |
13.3 |
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Источник: данные компании, Bloomberg, оценки АТОНа |
© ООО «АТОН», 2018. Все права защищены.
vk.com/id446425943 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
65 |
||||||||
|
РЫНОК АКЦИЙ |
|
|
КРАТКИЙ ОБЗОР КОМПАНИЙ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
Рис. 153. Сургутнефтегаз: краткий обзор ($ млрд, если не указано иное) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Surgutneftegas |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Macro |
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
Valuation |
17A |
|
18E |
|
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
Bloomberg ticker |
|
SGGD LI |
|
|
Price |
|
$4.2 |
|
Brent oil price, $/bbl |
54 |
|
74 |
|
70 |
|
70 |
|
EV/EBITDA |
neg |
|
neg |
|
|
neg |
|
neg |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Shares, mn |
|
35,076 |
|
|
TP |
|
$4.4 |
|
Urals oil price, $/bbl |
53 |
|
72 |
|
68 |
|
68 |
|
EV/DACF |
neg |
|
neg |
|
|
neg |
|
neg |
|
|
Last updated |
|
1H18 |
|
|
Upside |
5% |
|
Crude oil MET, $/bbl |
19 |
|
28 |
29 |
32 |
|
P/E |
5.8 |
1.8 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
RUB/USD spot |
|
66.4 |
|
|
|
Rating |
|
HOLD |
|
Oil export duty rate, $/bbl |
12 |
|
18 |
|
14 |
|
11 |
|
FCF yield, % |
17% |
|
10% |
|
17% |
|
17% |
|
|
Brent spot, $/bbl |
$60.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RUB/USD avg FX |
58.3 |
|
62.6 |
64.0 |
61.5 |
|
Dividend yield, ord, % |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dividend yield, pref, % |
1% |
|
5% |
|
16% |
|
10% |
|
|
Market value |
|
$bn |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operational data |
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
Efficiency |
17A |
|
18E |
|
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
|
Market cap |
|
$19.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liquids output, mmbpd |
1.2 |
|
1.2 |
|
1.2 |
|
1.2 |
|
EBITDA/boe, $/boe |
11.6 |
|
12.8 |
|
14.4 |
|
14.2 |
|
|
EV |
|
neg |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Marketable gas production, bcm |
9.8 |
|
9.7 |
9.6 |
9.4 |
|
Lifting costs, $/boe |
n/a |
|
n/a |
|
|
n/a |
|
n/a |
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total hydrocarbon output, mmboepd |
1.4 |
|
1.4 |
|
1.4 |
|
1.3 |
|
Refining costs, $/boe |
n/a |
|
n/a |
|
|
n/a |
|
n/a |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Refining throughput, mmbpd |
0.4 |
|
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
|
SG&A costs, $/boe |
3.2 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
3.5 |
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Income statement |
|
17A |
|
|
18E |
19E |
|
20E |
|
Balance sheet |
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
Cash flow statement |
17A |
|
18E |
|
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
Revenue |
|
23.4 |
|
26.7 |
28.7 |
|
28.8 |
|
Cash and equivalents |
44.0 |
|
46.5 |
|
42.2 |
|
44.7 |
|
CF operating |
6.1 |
|
4.8 |
|
6.5 |
|
6.5 |
||
|
EBITDA |
5.8 |
|
6.4 |
7.2 |
6.9 |
|
PP&E |
24.8 |
|
23.5 |
24.2 |
26.0 |
|
CF investing |
-5.0 |
-4.5 |
-3.1 |
-3.3 |
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
Net income |
|
3.3 |
|
10.5 |
6.3 |
|
6.1 |
|
Other non-current assets |
0.7 |
|
0.6 |
|
0.8 |
|
0.8 |
|
- capex |
-2.7 |
|
-2.9 |
|
-3.1 |
|
-3.3 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total assets |
73.6 |
|
74.1 |
72.0 |
76.5 |
|
- M&A |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
DACF |
|
5.0 |
|
4.1 |
5.7 |
|
5.5 |
|
ST debt |
3.2 |
|
3.0 |
|
0.8 |
|
0.9 |
|
CF financing |
0.8 |
|
0.2 |
|
0.0 |
|
0.3 |
||
|
EPS |
0.10 |
|
0.30 |
0.18 |
0.17 |
|
LT debt |
0.1 |
|
0.2 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
|
- dividends |
-0.4 |
-0.6 |
-1.1 |
-0.8 |
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
DPS |
|
0.01 |
|
0.01 |
0.01 |
|
0.01 |
|
Shareholders' equity |
62.7 |
|
63.5 |
|
63.6 |
|
67.7 |
|
- change in LT debt |
1.4 |
|
0.4 |
|
0.3 |
|
0.3 |
||
|
Payout ratio |
|
neg |
18% |
10% |
12% |
|
Minority interest |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Net change in cash |
1.9 |
2.5 |
-4.3 |
2.5 |
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total equity & liabilities |
73.6 |
|
74.1 |
|
72.0 |
|
76.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EBITDA margin |
25% |
|
24% |
25% |
24% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Free cash flow |
3.4 |
1.9 |
3.3 |
3.2 |
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Net margin |
|
14% |
|
39% |
22% |
|
21% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ROE |
5% |
|
|
neg |
10% |
9% |
|
Net debt |
-40.8 |
|
-43.3 |
-40.5 |
-42.8 |
|
OCF per share |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
ROIC |
|
9% |
|
11% |
12% |
|
11% |
|
Net debt/EBITDA |
neg |
|
neg |
|
neg |
|
neg |
|
FCF per share |
0.1 |
|
0.1 |
|
0.1 |
|
0.1 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Источник: данные компании, Bloomberg, оценки АТОНа |
||||||||||||
|
Рис. 154. Татнефть: краткий обзор ($ млрд, если не указано иное) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tatneft |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Macro |
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
Valuation |
17A |
|
18E |
|
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
Bloomberg ticker |
|
ATAD LI |
|
|
Price |
$70 |
|
Brent oil price, $/bbl |
54 |
|
74 |
70 |
70 |
|
EV/EBITDA |
8.2 |
5.2 |
5.1 |
4.7 |
||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
Shares, mn |
|
2,179 |
|
|
|
TP |
|
$79 |
|
Urals oil price, $/bbl |
53 |
|
72 |
|
68 |
|
68 |
|
EV/DACF |
7.5 |
|
5.6 |
|
5.9 |
|
5.4 |
|
|
Last updated |
|
2Q18 |
|
|
Upside |
13% |
|
Crude oil MET, $/bbl |
19 |
|
28 |
29 |
32 |
|
P/E |
12.4 |
7.1 |
7.1 |
6.6 |
||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
RUB/USD spot |
|
66.4 |
|
|
|
Rating |
|
HOLD |
|
Oil export duty rate, $/bbl |
12 |
|
18 |
|
14 |
|
11 |
|
FCF yield, % |
5% |
|
3% |
|
4% |
|
4% |
|
|
Brent spot, $/bbl |
$60.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RUB/USD avg FX |
58.3 |
|
62.6 |
64.0 |
61.5 |
|
Dividend yield, ord, % |
3% |
8% |
8% |
9% |
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dividend yield, pref, % |
4% |
|
10% |
|
11% |
|
12% |
|
|
Market value |
|
$bn |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operational data |
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
Efficiency |
17A |
|
18E |
|
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
|
Market cap |
|
$26.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liquids output, mmbpd |
0.6 |
|
0.6 |
|
0.6 |
|
0.6 |
|
EBITDA/boe, $/boe |
15.7 |
|
24.4 |
|
24.4 |
|
25.9 |
|
|
EV |
$26.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Marketable gas production, bcm |
1.0 |
|
1.0 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
|
Lifting costs, $/boe |
4.5 |
4.2 |
4.4 |
4.9 |
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total hydrocarbon output, mmboepd |
0.6 |
|
0.6 |
|
0.6 |
|
0.6 |
|
Refining costs, $/boe |
2.9 |
|
3.3 |
|
3.1 |
|
5.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Refining throughput, mmbpd |
0.2 |
|
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
|
SG&A costs, $/boe |
4.1 |
3.9 |
4.2 |
4.7 |
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Income statement |
|
17A |
|
|
18E |
19E |
|
20E |
|
Balance sheet |
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
Cash flow statement |
17A |
|
18E |
|
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
Revenue |
|
13.2 |
|
16.3 |
16.8 |
|
21.0 |
|
Cash and equivalents |
0.7 |
|
0.8 |
|
1.8 |
|
2.2 |
|
CF operating |
2.8 |
|
2.3 |
|
2.7 |
|
3.0 |
||
|
EBITDA |
3.2 |
|
5.0 |
5.2 |
5.6 |
|
PP&E |
11.3 |
|
10.8 |
13.4 |
15.2 |
|
CF investing |
-1.9 |
-2.0 |
-1.7 |
-1.8 |
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
Net income |
|
2.2 |
|
3.7 |
3.8 |
|
4.0 |
|
Other non-current assets |
0.1 |
|
0.2 |
|
0.2 |
|
0.2 |
|
- capex |
-1.5 |
|
-1.6 |
|
-1.7 |
|
-1.8 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total assets |
16.5 |
|
16.5 |
20.3 |
22.8 |
|
- M&A |
-0.6 |
-0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
DACF |
|
3.5 |
|
4.7 |
4.4 |
|
4.8 |
|
ST debt |
0.7 |
|
0.3 |
|
1.5 |
|
1.9 |
|
CF financing |
-1.4 |
|
-0.4 |
|
-1.1 |
|
-0.6 |
||
|
EPS |
1.0 |
|
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
|
LT debt |
0.1 |
|
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
|
- dividends |
-1.9 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.6 |
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
DPS |
|
0.4 |
|
0.9 |
0.9 |
|
1.1 |
|
Shareholders' equity |
13.0 |
|
12.6 |
|
15.1 |
|
16.9 |
|
- change in LT debt |
0.3 |
|
0.6 |
|
-0.5 |
|
0.1 |
||
|
Payout ratio |
30% |
|
50% |
50% |
50% |
|
Minority interest |
0.1 |
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
Net change in cash |
-0.5 |
0.1 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total equity & liabilities |
16.5 |
|
16.5 |
|
20.3 |
|
22.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EBITDA margin |
24% |
|
31% |
31% |
27% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Free cash flow |
1.3 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Net margin |
|
16% |
|
23% |
22% |
|
19% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ROE |
17% |
|
30% |
25% |
24% |
|
Net debt |
0.1 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
OCF per share |
1.3 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
ROIC |
|
15% |
|
26% |
25% |
|
23% |
|
Net debt/EBITDA |
0.0 |
|
neg |
|
neg |
|
neg |
|
FCF per share |
0.6 |
|
0.3 |
|
0.5 |
|
0.5 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Источник: данные компании, Bloomberg, оценки АТОНа |
© ООО «АТОН», 2018. Все права защищены.
vk.com/id446425943 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
66 |
|||||||||||||||||||
|
РЫНОК АКЦИЙ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
КРАТКИЙ ОБЗОР КОМПАНИЙ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||||
|
Рис. 155. Газпром нефть: краткий обзор ($ млрд, если не указано иное) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Gazprom Neft |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Macro |
|
|
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
|
20E |
|
Valuation |
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
|||||||||||||||
|
Bloomberg ticker |
|
GAZ LI |
|
|
|
|
|
Price |
|
$29 |
|
Brent oil price, $/bbl |
|
|
54 |
|
|
74 |
|
|
70 |
|
|
|
|
70 |
|
|
EV/EBITDA |
5.1 |
|
|
3.6 |
|
|
3.5 |
|
|
4.0 |
|
|
|||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Shares, mn |
|
4,718 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TP |
|
$34 |
|
Urals oil price, $/bbl |
|
|
53 |
|
|
72 |
|
|
68 |
|
|
|
|
68 |
|
|
EV/DACF |
6.3 |
|
|
4.4 |
|
|
4.2 |
|
|
4.7 |
|
|
|||||||||||
|
Last updated |
|
2Q18 |
|
|
|
|
Upside |
18% |
|
Crude oil MET, $/bbl |
19 |
|
28 |
|
29 |
|
|
32 |
|
|
P/E |
6.2 |
|
3.9 |
|
3.8 |
|
4.4 |
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||
|
RUB/USD spot |
|
66.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rating |
|
BUY |
|
Oil export duty rate, $/bbl |
|
|
12 |
|
|
18 |
|
|
14 |
|
|
|
|
11 |
|
|
FCF yield, % |
4% |
|
|
12% |
|
|
18% |
|
|
14% |
|
|
||||||||||||||
|
Brent spot, $/bbl |
$60.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RUB/USD avg FX |
58.3 |
62.6 |
64.0 |
61.5 |
|
Dividend yield, % |
3% |
|
4% |
|
8% |
|
9% |
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Market value |
|
$bn |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operational data |
|
|
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
|
20E |
|
Efficiency |
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
|||||||||||||||||
|
Market cap |
|
$26.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liquids output, mmbpd |
|
|
1.0 |
|
|
1.0 |
|
1.0 |
|
|
|
1.1 |
|
|
EBITDA/boe, $/boe |
10.9 |
|
|
15.5 |
|
|
15.4 |
|
|
13.0 |
|
|
||||||||
|
EV |
$38.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Marketable gas production, bcm |
17 |
|
17 |
|
18 |
|
|
18 |
|
|
Lifting costs, $/boe |
1.1 |
|
1.1 |
|
1.1 |
|
1.1 |
|
|
||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total hydrocarbon output, mmboepd |
1.9 |
|
|
1.9 |
|
1.9 |
|
|
|
2.0 |
|
|
Refining costs, $/boe |
2.5 |
|
|
2.4 |
|
|
2.4 |
|
|
2.5 |
|
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Refining throughput, mmbpd |
0.8 |
|
0.8 |
0.8 |
|
0.8 |
|
|
SG&A costs, $/boe |
2.6 |
|
2.7 |
|
2.7 |
|
2.8 |
|
|
|||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Income statement |
|
17A |
|
|
|
18E |
|
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
Balance sheet |
|
|
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
|
20E |
|
Cash flow statement |
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Revenue |
|
34.4 |
|
|
42.3 |
|
|
|
44.7 |
|
46.9 |
|
Cash and equivalents |
|
|
1.6 |
|
|
2.8 |
|
3.2 |
|
|
|
4.1 |
|
|
CF operating |
7.2 |
|
|
9.3 |
|
|
10.0 |
|
|
9.2 |
|
|
||||||||||||||||
|
EBITDA |
7.6 |
|
|
10.7 |
|
|
|
10.9 |
|
9.7 |
|
PP&E |
35.6 |
35.4 |
40.8 |
44.6 |
|
CF investing |
-5.4 |
|
-5.6 |
|
-5.3 |
|
-5.5 |
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
Net income |
|
4.3 |
|
|
|
6.9 |
|
|
|
|
7.1 |
|
6.2 |
|
Other non-current assets |
|
|
1.8 |
|
|
1.3 |
|
1.3 |
|
|
|
1.4 |
|
|
- capex |
-6.1 |
|
|
-6.1 |
|
|
-5.3 |
|
|
-5.5 |
|
|
||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total assets |
50.9 |
51.8 |
58.1 |
62.5 |
|
- M&A |
-0.1 |
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
DACF |
|
6.1 |
|
|
|
8.8 |
|
|
|
|
9.2 |
|
8.3 |
|
ST debt |
|
|
2.3 |
|
|
1.1 |
|
1.2 |
|
|
|
1.4 |
|
|
CF financing |
-0.9 |
|
|
-2.3 |
|
|
-4.5 |
|
|
-2.9 |
|
|
||||||||||||||
|
EPS |
0.9 |
|
|
|
1.5 |
|
|
|
|
1.5 |
|
1.3 |
|
LT debt |
9.5 |
|
9.2 |
7.8 |
|
7.9 |
|
|
- dividends |
-0.9 |
|
-1.1 |
|
-2.2 |
|
-2.6 |
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||
|
DPS |
|
0.2 |
|
|
|
0.2 |
|
|
|
|
0.5 |
|
0.5 |
|
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
27.0 |
|
29.7 |
|
36.7 |
|
|
41.0 |
|
- change in LT debt |
0.1 |
|
|
-0.9 |
|
|
-1.9 |
|
|
0.1 |
|
|
|||||||||||||||||
|
Payout ratio |
25% |
|
|
|
28% |
|
|
|
|
33% |
|
35% |
|
Minority interest |
1.8 |
|
1.8 |
1.9 |
|
1.9 |
|
|
Net change in cash |
1.0 |
|
1.2 |
|
0.4 |
|
0.9 |
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total equity & liabilities |
|
|
50.9 |
|
51.8 |
|
58.1 |
|
|
62.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
EBITDA margin |
22% |
|
|
|
25% |
|
|
|
|
24% |
|
21% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Free cash flow |
1.1 |
|
3.2 |
|
4.7 |
|
3.7 |
|
|
|||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net margin |
|
13% |
|
|
|
16% |
|
|
|
|
16% |
|
13% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
ROE |
16% |
|
|
|
23% |
|
|
|
|
19% |
|
15% |
|
Net debt |
10.2 |
7.5 |
5.9 |
|
5.3 |
|
|
OCF per share |
1.5 |
|
2.0 |
|
2.1 |
|
2.0 |
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
ROIC |
|
12% |
|
|
|
17% |
|
|
|
|
16% |
|
12% |
|
Net debt/EBITDA |
|
|
1.3 |
|
|
0.7 |
|
0.5 |
|
|
|
0.5 |
|
|
FCF per share |
0.2 |
|
|
0.7 |
|
|
1.0 |
|
|
0.8 |
|
|
||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Источник: данные компании, Bloomberg, оценки АТОНа |
||||||||||||||||||
|
Рис. 156. Газпром: краткий обзор ($ млрд, если не указано иное) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
Gazprom |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Macro |
|
17A |
|
|
18E |
|
|
19E |
|
|
|
20E |
|
|
Valuation |
|
17A |
|
|
18E |
|
|
19E |
|
|
20E |
|
||||||
|
Bloomberg ticker |
OGZD LI |
|
|
Price |
$4.9 |
|
Brent oil price, $/bbl |
54 |
|
|
|
74 |
|
|
70 |
|
|
70 |
|
|
EV/EBITDA |
4.2 |
|
3.6 |
|
3.6 |
|
3.2 |
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||||
|
Shares, mn |
|
23,674 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TP |
|
|
|
|
$6.4 |
|
Urals oil price, $/bbl |
|
53 |
|
|
|
72 |
|
|
68 |
|
|
68 |
|
|
EV/DACF |
|
6.3 |
|
4.2 |
|
4.0 |
|
3.7 |
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
Last updated |
|
4Q17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Upside |
29% |
|
European gas price, $/mcm |
176 |
|
|
196 |
|
|
221 |
|
|
226 |
|
|
P/E |
4.8 |
|
4.0 |
|
4.1 |
|
3.8 |
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
RUB/USD spot |
|
66.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rating |
|
|
|
BUY |
|
Domestic gas price, $/mcm |
|
58 |
|
|
|
68 |
|
|
67 |
|
|
69 |
|
|
FCF yield, % |
|
neg |
|
4% |
|
7% |
|
20% |
|
|
||||||||||||
|
Brent spot, $/bbl |
$60.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RUB/USD avg FX |
58.3 |
|
|
62.6 |
|
|
64.0 |
|
|
61.5 |
|
|
Dividend yield, % |
5% |
|
5% |
|
6% |
|
8% |
|
|
||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Market value |
|
$bn |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operational data |
|
17A |
|
|
18E |
|
|
19E |
|
|
|
20E |
|
|
Efficiency |
|
17A |
|
|
18E |
|
|
19E |
|
|
20E |
|
||||||||
|
Market cap |
|
$58.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Natural gas production, bcm |
|
471 |
|
|
454 |
|
|
440 |
|
|
426 |
|
|
EBITDA/boe, $/boe |
|
8.0 |
|
9.6 |
|
9.9 |
|
11.1 |
|
|
|||||||||||
|
EV |
$106.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Non-FSU export, bcm |
242 |
|
|
234 |
|
|
234 |
|
|
239 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FSU export, bcm |
|
35 |
|
|
|
35 |
|
|
35 |
|
|
35 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Domestic sales, bcm |
230 |
|
|
209 |
|
|
205 |
|
|
201 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Income statement |
|
17A |
|
|
18E |
|
|
19E |
|
|
20E |
|
Balance sheet |
|
17A |
|
|
18E |
|
|
19E |
|
|
|
20E |
|
|
Cash flow statement |
|
17A |
|
|
18E |
|
|
19E |
|
|
20E |
|
||||||||||||||||
|
Revenue |
|
112.3 |
|
|
113.2 |
|
115.1 |
|
122.4 |
|
Cash and equivalents |
|
15.1 |
|
|
|
4.3 |
|
|
3.1 |
|
|
3.3 |
|
|
CF operating |
|
20.4 |
|
28.9 |
|
31.7 |
|
33.3 |
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||
|
EBITDA |
25.4 |
|
|
|
29.5 |
29.9 |
|
|
|
33.0 |
|
PP&E |
217.8 |
204.9 |
|
|
234.6 |
|
|
247.0 |
|
|
CF investing |
-23.5 |
|
-26.4 |
|
-27.6 |
|
-21.5 |
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Net income |
|
12.2 |
|
|
|
14.6 |
|
|
14.1 |
|
|
|
15.3 |
|
Other non-current assets |
|
18.9 |
|
|
16.5 |
|
|
17.6 |
|
|
17.8 |
|
|
- capex |
|
-24.1 |
|
-26.4 |
|
-27.6 |
|
-21.5 |
|
|
|||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total assets |
316.6 |
301.9 |
|
|
319.9 |
|
|
335.0 |
|
|
- M&A |
-1.7 |
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
|
DACF |
|
17.0 |
|
|
|
25.3 |
|
|
26.5 |
|
|
|
28.9 |
|
ST debt |
|
15.2 |
|
|
10.1 |
|
|
14.4 |
|
|
15.3 |
|
|
CF financing |
|
2.6 |
|
-11.8 |
|
-5.6 |
|
-11.7 |
|
|
|||||||||||||||||
|
EPS |
0.52 |
|
|
|
0.62 |
0.59 |
|
|
|
0.65 |
|
LT debt |
41.5 |
|
|
33.0 |
|
|
30.8 |
|
|
26.1 |
|
|
- dividends |
-3.3 |
|
-3.0 |
|
-3.0 |
|
-5.1 |
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
DPS |
|
0.14 |
|
|
|
0.13 |
|
|
0.16 |
|
|
|
0.22 |
|
Shareholders' equity |
|
201.9 |
|
187.1 |
|
|
210.6 |
|
|
224.3 |
|
|
- change in LT debt |
|
6.5 |
|
-6.8 |
|
-0.7 |
|
-4.5 |
|
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
Payout ratio |
24% |
|
|
|
20% |
27% |
|
|
|
23% |
|
Minority interest |
6.7 |
|
|
|
7.5 |
|
|
10.0 |
|
|
12.3 |
|
|
Net change in cash |
-0.5 |
|
-10.8 |
|
-1.2 |
|
0.2 |
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total equity & liabilities |
|
316.6 |
|
301.9 |
|
|
319.9 |
|
|
335.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
EBITDA margin |
23% |
|
|
|
26% |
26% |
|
|
|
27% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Free cash flow |
-3.8 |
|
2.5 |
|
4.1 |
|
11.8 |
|
|
|||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||
|
Net margin |
|
11% |
|
|
|
13% |
|
|
12% |
|
|
|
12% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
ROE |
6% |
|
|
|
8% |
|
7% |
|
|
|
|
7% |
|
|
Net debt |
41.6 |
|
|
38.8 |
|
|
42.1 |
|
|
38.1 |
|
|
OCF per share |
0.9 |
|
1.2 |
|
1.3 |
|
1.4 |
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
ROIC |
|
4% |
|
|
|
6% |
|
|
|
6% |
|
|
|
|
6% |
|
|
Net debt/EBITDA |
|
1.6 |
|
|
|
1.3 |
|
|
1.4 |
|
|
1.2 |
|
|
FCF per share |
|
-0.2 |
|
0.1 |
|
0.2 |
|
0.5 |
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Источник: данные компании, Bloomberg, оценки АТОНа |
© ООО «АТОН», 2018. Все права защищены.
vk.com/id446425943 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
67 |
|||||||||||
|
РЫНОК АКЦИЙ |
|
|
|
КРАТКИЙ ОБЗОР КОМПАНИЙ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
Рис. 157. Новатэк: краткий обзор ($ млрд, если не указано иное) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Novatek |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Macro |
|
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
Valuation |
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
|
Bloomberg ticker |
|
NVTK LI |
|
|
|
Price |
|
$169 |
|
Brent oil price, $/bbl |
|
54 |
|
74 |
|
70 |
|
70 |
|
EV/EBITDA |
15.5 |
|
13.0 |
|
13.9 |
|
13.0 |
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Shares, mn |
|
3,014 |
|
|
|
|
|
TP |
|
$184 |
|
Urals oil price, $/bbl |
|
53 |
|
72 |
|
68 |
|
68 |
|
EV/DACF |
18.7 |
|
14.8 |
|
16.9 |
|
16.4 |
|
||
|
Last updated |
|
2Q18 |
|
|
|
Upside |
9% |
|
Crude oil MET, $/bbl |
19 |
28 |
29 |
32 |
|
P/E |
19.0 |
19.6 |
9.8 |
9.1 |
|
||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
RUB/USD spot |
|
66.4 |
|
|
|
|
Rating |
|
|
HOLD |
|
Oil export duty rate, $/bbl |
|
12 |
|
18 |
|
14 |
|
11 |
|
FCF yield, % |
5% |
|
4% |
|
2% |
|
7% |
|
||
|
Brent spot, $/bbl |
$60.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RUB/USD avg FX |
58.3 |
62.6 |
64.0 |
61.5 |
|
Dividend yield, % |
1% |
1% |
1% |
3% |
|
||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Market value |
|
$bn |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operational data |
|
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
Efficiency |
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
|
|
Market cap |
|
$50.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liquids output, kbpd |
|
235 |
|
238 |
|
242 |
|
271 |
|
EBITDA/boe, $/boe |
11.2 |
|
14.4 |
|
13.8 |
|
13.2 |
|
|
EV |
$52.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Marketable gas production, bcm |
63 |
68 |
73 |
79 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total hydrocarbon output, kboepd |
|
1,254 |
|
1,332 |
|
1,423 |
|
1,538 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Income statement |
|
17A |
|
|
18E |
|
|
19E |
|
|
|
20E |
|
Balance sheet |
|
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
Cash flow statement |
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
|
|
Revenue |
|
10.0 |
|
12.2 |
|
|
12.3 |
|
|
14.1 |
|
Cash and equivalents |
|
1.1 |
|
1.3 |
|
1.4 |
|
4.1 |
|
CF operating |
3.1 |
|
3.5 |
|
2.9 |
|
4.3 |
|
||
|
EBITDA |
3.4 |
|
4.1 |
3.8 |
4.1 |
|
PP&E |
6.3 |
7.0 |
9.1 |
9.3 |
|
CF investing |
-1.0 |
-2.5 |
-2.1 |
-0.7 |
|
||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||
|
Net income |
|
2.7 |
|
2.6 |
|
|
5.2 |
|
|
5.6 |
|
Other non-current assets |
|
4.3 |
|
4.1 |
|
4.4 |
|
4.5 |
|
- capex |
-0.4 |
|
-1.5 |
|
-2.1 |
|
-0.7 |
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total assets |
18.1 |
18.1 |
23.0 |
28.0 |
|
- M&A |
-0.1 |
-0.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||
|
DACF |
|
2.8 |
|
3.6 |
|
|
3.1 |
|
|
3.2 |
|
ST debt |
|
0.2 |
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
CF financing |
-1.8 |
|
-0.8 |
|
-0.8 |
|
-1.1 |
|
||
|
EPS |
0.9 |
|
0.9 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
|
LT debt |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
3.3 |
|
- dividends |
-0.7 |
-0.6 |
-0.8 |
-1.6 |
|
||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||
|
DPS |
|
0.2 |
|
0.2 |
|
|
0.2 |
|
|
0.5 |
|
Shareholders' equity |
|
13.2 |
|
13.4 |
|
18.9 |
|
23.2 |
|
- change in LT debt |
-0.9 |
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
0.6 |
|
||
|
Payout ratio |
30% |
|
30% |
30% |
30% |
|
Minority interest |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
|
Net change in cash |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
2.7 |
|
||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total equity & liabilities |
|
18.1 |
|
18.1 |
|
23.0 |
|
28.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EBITDA margin |
34% |
|
33% |
31% |
29% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Free cash flow |
2.7 |
2.1 |
0.8 |
3.7 |
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
Net margin |
|
27% |
|
21% |
|
|
42% |
|
|
40% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
ROE |
20% |
|
19% |
28% |
24% |
|
Net debt |
1.6 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
-0.8 |
|
OCF per share |
1.0 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
|
||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||
|
ROIC |
|
22% |
|
23% |
|
|
17% |
|
|
17% |
|
Net debt/EBITDA |
|
0.5 |
|
0.3 |
|
0.3 |
|
-0.2 |
|
FCF per share |
0.9 |
|
0.7 |
|
0.3 |
|
1.2 |
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Источник: данные компании, Bloomberg, оценки АТОНа |
© ООО «АТОН», 2018. Все права защищены.
vk.com/id446425943 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
68 |
|||||
|
РЫНОК АКЦИЙ |
|
КРАТКИЙ ОБЗОР КОМПАНИЙ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Металлы и добыча |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Рис. 158. АЛРОСА: краткий обзор |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ALROSA |
|
|
|
|
|
Prices |
|
17A |
18E |
19E |
20E |
Valuation |
|
17A |
18E |
19E |
20E |
|
|
Bloomberg ticker |
ALRS RX |
|
Price |
99.0 |
Benchmark price, $/ct |
199 |
200 |
210 |
220 |
EV/EBITDA |
|
6.2 |
5.1 |
5.2 |
5.5 |
|
||
|
Shares, mn |
7,365 |
|
|
PO |
115.0 |
Avg selling px, $/ct |
|
130 |
140 |
147 |
154 |
P/E |
|
9.3 |
8.1 |
7.8 |
8.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Last reported |
3Q18 |
|
|
Upside |
16% |
Gem quality, $/ct |
|
136 |
150 |
158 |
165 |
P/B |
|
2.7 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
|
|
RUB/USD spot |
66.4 |
|
|
Rating |
BUY |
Industrial quality, $/ct |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
FCF yield |
|
9% |
15% |
14% |
11% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dividend yield |
|
5% |
6% |
6% |
6% |
|
|
Market value |
RUBbn |
|
|
|
Sales, mn cts |
|
17A |
18E |
19E |
20E |
Target valuation |
17A |
18E |
19E |
20E |
|||
|
Market cap |
729 |
|
|
|
|
Gem quality |
|
30 |
31 |
30 |
28 |
EV/EBITDA |
|
7.2 |
5.9 |
6.0 |
6.4 |
|
|
ND + MI |
36 |
|
|
|
|
Industrial quality |
|
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
P/E |
|
10.8 |
9.4 |
9.0 |
9.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EV |
764 |
|
|
|
|
Diamond sales, mct |
|
41.2 |
42.0 |
41.0 |
39.0 |
P/B |
|
3.2 |
2.7 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
|
|
Income statement |
17A |
|
18E |
19E |
20E |
Balance sheet |
|
17A |
18E |
19E |
20E |
Cash flow |
|
17A |
18E |
19E |
20E |
|
|
Revenue |
275 |
|
304 |
312 |
311 |
Non-current assets |
|
259 |
266 |
266 |
266 |
Operating CF |
|
100 |
154 |
134 |
109 |
|
|
EBITDA |
123 |
150 |
148 |
138 |
Current assets |
|
169 |
184 |
204 |
221 |
CAPEX+M&A |
|
-27 |
-32 |
-26 |
-28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net income |
79 |
|
90 |
94 |
89 |
Total assets |
|
428 |
450 |
470 |
487 |
Investing CF |
|
-2 |
-29 |
-21 |
-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Shareholders' equity |
266 |
312 |
360 |
406 |
Financing CF |
|
-119 |
-84 |
-84 |
-78 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Shares mn |
7,365 |
|
7,365 |
7,365 |
7,365 |
Non-current liabil |
|
86 |
69 |
50 |
32 |
Net chng in cash |
-20 |
40 |
29 |
11 |
|
|
|
EPS |
10.7 |
12.2 |
12.8 |
12.1 |
Current liabilities |
|
76 |
69 |
60 |
50 |
Cash at end |
|
47 |
87 |
117 |
127 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DPS |
5.2 |
|
6.0 |
6.3 |
5.9 |
Total equity & liabil |
|
428 |
450 |
470 |
487 |
Free cash flow |
|
63 |
112 |
100 |
77 |
|
|
Payout ratio |
50% |
50% |
50% |
50% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LT debt |
|
59 |
42 |
23 |
5 |
OCF per share |
|
13.6 |
20.8 |
18.2 |
14.8 |
|
|
EBITDA margin |
45% |
49% |
47% |
44% |
ST debt |
|
35 |
25 |
14 |
3 |
FCF per share |
|
8.6 |
15.1 |
13.6 |
10.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net margin |
29% |
|
30% |
30% |
29% |
Total debt |
|
93 |
67 |
37 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ROA |
17% |
20% |
20% |
19% |
Net debt |
|
47 |
-20 |
-79 |
-120 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ROE |
30% |
|
31% |
28% |
23% |
Net debt to EBITDA |
|
0.4 |
-0.1 |
-0.5 |
-0.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Источник: данные компании, Bloomberg, оценки АТОНа |
|||||||
|
Рис. 159. Норникель: краткий обзор |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Nornickel |
|
|
|
|
|
Prices |
17A |
18E |
19E |
20E |
Valuation |
17A |
18E |
19E |
20E |
|
||
|
Bloomberg ticker |
MNOD LI |
|
|
Price |
19.1 |
Nickel $/t |
10,566 |
14,500 |
12,300 |
12,300 |
EV/EBITDA |
|
9.1 |
6.2 |
6.2 |
6.2 |
|
|
|
GDRs, mn |
1,582 |
|
|
PO |
23.0 |
Copper $/t |
6,280 |
6,900 |
6,230 |
6,230 |
P/E |
14.2 |
9.5 |
9.6 |
10.1 |
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Last reported |
1H18 |
|
|
Upside |
21% |
Palladium $/oz |
886 |
1,000 |
1,185 |
1,185 |
P/B |
|
7.0 |
5.1 |
5.5 |
6.1 |
|
|
|
RUB/USD spot |
66.4 |
|
|
Rating |
BUY |
Platinum $/oz |
953 |
900 |
850 |
850 |
FCF yield |
-3% |
10% |
6% |
5% |
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dividend yield |
|
5% |
12% |
12% |
12% |
|
|
Market value |
$mn |
|
|
|
|
Sales |
17A |
18E |
19E |
20E |
Target valuation |
17A |
18E |
19E |
20E |
|
||
|
Market cap |
30,193 |
|
|
|
|
Nickel, mt |
215 |
229 |
234 |
234 |
EV/EBITDA |
10.6 |
7.3 |
7.2 |
7.3 |
|
||
|
ND + MI |
6,039 |
|
|
|
|
Copper, mt |
368 |
402 |
406 |
408 |
P/E |
17.1 |
11.4 |
11.6 |
12.2 |
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EV |
36,232 |
|
|
|
|
Platinum, koz |
2,405 |
2,620 |
2,716 |
2,732 |
P/B |
|
8.4 |
6.2 |
6.6 |
7.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Palladium, koz |
657 |
602 |
629 |
632 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
Income statement |
17A |
18E |
19E |
20E |
Balance sheet |
17A |
18E |
19E |
20E |
Cash flow |
17A |
18E |
19E |
20E |
|
|||
|
Revenue |
9,146 |
11,761 |
11,796 |
11,909 |
Non-current assets |
12,109 |
13,354 |
14,767 |
16,171 |
Operating CF |
1,763 |
5,335 |
4,603 |
4,463 |
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
EBITDA |
3,995 |
5,838 |
5,874 |
5,816 |
Current assets |
4,526 |
5,617 |
5,677 |
5,327 |
CAPEX+M&A |
-1,841 |
-2,000 |
-2,350 |
-2,450 |
|
|||
|
Net income |
2,123 |
3,185 |
3,148 |
2,981 |
Total assets |
16,635 |
18,972 |
20,444 |
21,497 |
Investing CF |
-1,936 |
-2,067 |
-2,306 |
-2,410 |
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Shareholders' equity |
4,327 |
5,872 |
5,518 |
4,974 |
Financing CF |
-2,237 |
-1,767 |
-2,492 |
-2,513 |
|
||
|
GDRs mn |
1,582 |
1,582 |
1,582 |
1,582 |
Non-current liabil |
9,625 |
9,352 |
10,262 |
11,626 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
EPGDR |
1.34 |
2.01 |
1.99 |
1.88 |
Current liabilities |
2,352 |
3,416 |
4,334 |
4,566 |
Net chng in cash |
-2,410 |
1,501 |
-195 |
-460 |
|
|||
|
DPGDR |
1.04 |
2.21 |
2.23 |
2.21 |
Total equity & liabil |
16,635 |
18,972 |
20,444 |
21,497 |
Cash at end |
852 |
2,353 |
2,158 |
1,698 |
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Payout ratio |
77% |
110% |
112% |
117% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Free cash flow |
-768 |
2,929 |
1,858 |
1,558 |
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LT debt |
8,236 |
7,963 |
8,873 |
10,237 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
EBITDA margin |
44% |
50% |
50% |
49% |
ST debt |
817 |
790 |
880 |
1,016 |
OCF per GDR |
|
1.1 |
3.4 |
2.9 |
2.8 |
|
||
|
Net margin |
23% |
27% |
27% |
25% |
Total debt |
9,053 |
8,753 |
9,753 |
11,253 |
FCF per GDR |
-0.5 |
1.9 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
ROA |
13% |
18% |
16% |
14% |
Net debt |
8,201 |
6,400 |
7,595 |
9,555 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
ROE |
50% |
59% |
52% |
53% |
Net debt to EBITDA |
2.1 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Источник: данные компании, Bloomberg, оценки АТОНа |
© ООО «АТОН», 2018. Все права защищены.
vk.com/id446425943 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
69 |
||||
|
РЫНОК АКЦИЙ |
|
КРАТКИЙ ОБЗОР КОМПАНИЙ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
Рис. 160. Северсталь: краткий обзор |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Severstal |
|
|
|
|
|
Prices |
17A |
18E |
19E |
|
20E |
Valuation |
|
17A |
18E |
|
19E |
20E |
|||
|
Bloomberg ticker |
SVST LI |
|
Price |
14.3 |
HCC Australia Benchmark |
187 |
200 |
150 |
|
130 |
EV/EBITDA |
|
4.9 |
|
4.0 |
|
|
4.0 |
4.3 |
||
|
GDRs, mn |
837.7 |
|
PO |
19.0 |
HRC export Russia |
541 |
600 |
550 |
|
530 |
P/E |
8.9 |
|
5.7 |
|
|
5.8 |
6.3 |
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Last reported |
3Q18 |
|
Upside |
|
33% |
EBITDA/t Russian Steel |
161 |
209 |
227 |
|
222 |
P/B |
|
3.6 |
|
3.2 |
|
|
3.0 |
2.8 |
|
|
RUB/USD spot |
66.4 |
|
Rating |
BUY |
Cash cost /t Russian Steel |
495 |
520 |
474 |
|
457 |
FCF yield |
11% |
|
14% |
|
15% |
14% |
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dividend yield |
|
10% |
|
15% |
|
15% |
14% |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Market value |
$mn |
|
|
|
|
Sales, mt |
17A |
18E |
19E |
|
20E |
Target valuation |
|
17A |
18E |
|
19E |
20E |
|||
|
Market cap |
12,063 |
|
|
|
|
Russian Steel |
11.0 |
11.1 |
11.1 |
|
11.1 |
EV/EBITDA |
6.4 |
|
5.3 |
|
|
5.3 |
5.6 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Last reported ND |
438 |
|
|
|
|
Iron ore |
15.4 |
16.6 |
16.9 |
|
18.4 |
P/E |
|
11.8 |
7.5 |
|
|
7.7 |
8.3 |
||
|
Last reported MI |
14 |
|
|
|
|
Coking coal |
3.3 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
|
4.0 |
P/B |
4.7 |
|
4.2 |
|
|
3.9 |
3.7 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EV |
12,515 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Income statement |
17A |
18E |
19E |
|
20E |
Balance sheet |
17A |
18E |
19E |
|
20E |
Cash flow |
|
17A |
18E |
|
19E |
20E |
|||
|
Revenue |
7,848 |
8,778 |
8,386 |
8,150 |
Non-current assets |
4,257 |
4,600 |
4,918 |
5,163 |
Operating cash flow |
1,914 |
2,527 |
2,552 |
2,396 |
|||||||
|
EBITDA |
2,577 |
3,136 |
3,095 |
2,935 |
Current assets |
2,952 |
2,914 |
2,761 |
2,771 |
CAPEX+M&A |
-576 |
-782 |
|
-782 |
-732 |
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net income |
1,355 |
2,124 |
2,074 |
1,928 |
Total assets |
7,209 |
7,514 |
7,679 |
7,934 |
Investing cash flow |
|
-580 |
-734 |
|
-736 |
-689 |
|||||
|
GDRs, mn |
838 |
838 |
838 |
|
838 |
Total equity |
3,398 |
3,777 |
4,081 |
4,345 |
Financing cash flow -1,487 -1,845 -1,870 -1,664 |
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
EPGDR |
1.6 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
|
2.3 |
Non-current liabilities |
2,141 |
2,069 |
1,997 |
1,997 |
Net increase in cash |
-153 |
-52 |
|
|
-54 |
43 |
||||
|
DPGDR |
1.4 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
|
2.0 |
Current liabilities |
1,670 |
1,668 |
1,602 |
1,592 |
Cash at end |
1,031 |
979 |
|
925 |
968 |
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Payout ratio |
85% |
82% |
85% |
|
86% |
Total equity & liabilit |
7,209 |
7,514 |
7,679 |
7,934 |
Free cash flow |
|
1,338 |
1,745 |
1,770 |
1,664 |
|||||
|
EBITDA margin |
33% |
36% |
37% |
|
36% |
LT debt |
1,507 |
1,435 |
1,363 |
1,363 |
OCF per GDR |
2.3 |
|
3.0 |
|
|
3.0 |
2.9 |
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net margin |
17% |
24% |
25% |
|
24% |
ST debt |
586 |
558 |
530 |
|
530 |
FCF per GDR |
|
1.6 |
|
2.1 |
|
|
2.1 |
2.0 |
|
|
ROA |
20% |
29% |
27% |
|
25% |
Total debt |
2,093 |
1,993 |
1,893 |
1,893 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ROE |
42% |
59% |
53% |
|
46% |
Net debt |
1,062 |
1,014 |
968 |
|
925 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net debt to EBITDA |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
|
0.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Источник: данные компании, Bloomberg, оценки АТОНа |
||||||||||
|
Рис. 161. НЛМК: краткий обзор |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NLMK |
|
|
|
|
|
Prices |
17A |
18E |
19E |
|
20E |
Valuation |
|
17A |
|
18E |
|
|
19E |
20E |
|
|
Bloomberg ticker |
NLMK LI |
|
Price |
23.5 |
HCC Australia benchmark |
187 |
200 |
150 |
|
130 |
EV/EBITDA |
|
5.6 |
|
4.4 |
|
|
4.5 |
5.0 |
||
|
GDRs, mn |
599.3 |
|
PO |
29.0 |
HRC Export Russia |
541 |
600 |
550 |
|
530 |
P/E |
9.7 |
|
6.5 |
|
|
6.9 |
7.8 |
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Last reported |
3Q18 |
|
Upside |
23% |
EBITDA/t Russian flat |
132 |
179 |
175 |
|
167 |
P/B |
|
2.1 |
|
2.1 |
|
|
2.1 |
2.1 |
||
|
RUB/USD spot |
66.4 |
|
Rating HOLD |
Cash cost /t Russian flat |
380 |
406 |
358 |
|
343 |
FCF yield |
9% |
|
15% |
|
|
15% |
13% |
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dividend yield |
|
7% |
|
15% |
|
|
14% |
13% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
Market value |
$mn |
|
|
|
|
Sales, mt |
17A |
18E |
19E |
|
20E |
Target valuation |
|
17A |
|
18E |
|
|
19E |
20E |
|
|
Market cap |
14,102 |
|
|
|
|
Russian flat |
13.1 |
13.1 |
14.1 |
|
14.1 |
EV/EBITDA |
6.9 |
|
5.3 |
|
|
5.5 |
6.0 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Last reported ND |
865 |
|
|
|
|
Russian long |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
|
3.0 |
P/E |
|
12.0 |
|
8.0 |
|
|
8.5 |
9.6 |
|
|
Last reported MI |
16 |
|
|
|
|
Total Russian steel |
16.0 |
16.0 |
17.0 |
|
17.0 |
P/B |
2.6 |
|
2.6 |
|
|
2.6 |
2.6 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EV |
14,983 |
|
|
|
|
Iron ore |
17.1 |
17.1 |
17.1 |
|
17.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Foreign rolled + NBH |
2.7 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
|
2.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
Income statement |
17A |
18E |
19E |
|
20E |
Balance sheet |
17A |
18E |
19E |
|
20E |
Cash flow |
|
17A |
|
18E |
|
|
19E |
20E |
|
|
Revenue |
10,065 11,205 10,999 10,629 |
Non-current assets |
6,285 |
6,332 |
6,360 |
|
6,370 |
Operating cash flow 1,899 2,877 |
2,822 |
2,611 |
|||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
EBITDA |
2,655 |
3,417 |
3,307 |
|
3,019 |
Current assets |
4,711 |
4,662 |
4,626 |
|
4,578 |
CAPEX+M&A |
|
-582 |
|
-700 |
|
|
-700 |
-700 |
|
|
Net income |
1,452 |
2,159 |
2,056 |
|
1,812 |
Total assets |
10,996 |
10,994 |
10,986 |
10,949 |
Investing cash flow |
-758 |
|
-677 |
|
|
-677 |
-677 |
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
GDRs mn |
599 |
599 |
599 |
|
599 |
Total equity |
6,629 |
6,697 |
6,718 |
|
6,702 |
Financing cash flow |
-1,459 |
-2,179 |
-2,124 |
-1,916 |
|||||
|
EPGDR |
2.4 |
3.6 |
3.4 |
|
3.0 |
Non-current liabilities |
2,351 |
2,351 |
2,351 |
|
2,351 |
Net increase in cash |
-318 |
|
21 |
|
|
21 |
18 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
DPGDR |
1.7 |
3.5 |
3.4 |
|
3.0 |
Current liabilities |
1,999 |
1,928 |
1,900 |
|
1,879 |
Cash at end |
|
301 |
|
322 |
|
|
343 |
361 |
|
|
Payout ratio |
70% |
97% |
99% |
|
101% |
Total equity & liabilities |
10,979 |
10,977 |
10,969 |
10,932 |
Free cash flow |
1,266 2,112 |
|
2,057 |
1,846 |
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
EBITDA margin |
26% |
30% |
30% |
|
28% |
LT debt |
1,901 |
1,901 |
1,901 |
|
1,901 |
OCF per GDR |
|
3.2 |
|
4.8 |
|
|
4.7 |
4.4 |
|
|
Net margin |
14% |
19% |
19% |
|
17% |
ST debt |
380 |
380 |
380 |
|
380 |
FCF per GDR |
2.1 |
|
3.5 |
|
|
3.4 |
3.1 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ROA |
14% |
20% |
19% |
|
17% |
Total debt |
2,281 |
2,281 |
2,281 |
|
2,281 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ROE |
22% |
32% |
31% |
|
27% |
Net debt |
696 |
675 |
654 |
|
636 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net debt to EBITDA |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
|
0.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Источник: данные компании, Bloomberg, оценки АТОНа |
© ООО «АТОН», 2018. Все права защищены.
vk.com/id446425943 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
70 |
|||||||
|
РЫНОК АКЦИЙ |
|
|
КРАТКИЙ ОБЗОР КОМПАНИЙ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
Рис. 162. ММК: краткий обзор |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MMK |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices |
|
17A |
18E |
19E |
20E |
Valuation |
|
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
||||
|
Bloomberg ticker |
MMK LI |
|
Price |
9.2 |
|
HCC Australia benchmark |
187 |
200 |
150 |
130 |
EV/EBITDA |
|
3.8 |
|
3.2 |
|
|
3.4 |
|
|
3.7 |
|
||||
|
GDRs, mn |
859.6 |
|
|
PO |
12.0 |
|
HRC domestic Russia |
|
511 |
570 |
520 |
500 |
P/E |
|
6.7 |
5.7 |
|
|
6.3 |
|
|
7.1 |
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Last reported |
3Q18 |
|
|
Upside |
30% |
|
EBITDA/t Russian Steel |
|
167 |
196 |
191 |
182 |
P/B |
|
1.4 |
|
1.4 |
|
|
1.3 |
|
|
1.3 |
|
||
|
RUB/USD spot |
66.4 |
|
|
|
Rating |
BUY |
|
Cash cost /t Russian Steel |
470 |
463 |
419 |
406 |
FCF yield |
|
9% |
|
15% |
|
14% |
|
13% |
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dividend yield |
|
4% |
|
|
13% |
|
14% |
|
13% |
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Market value |
$mn |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sales, mt |
|
17A |
18E |
19E |
20E |
Target valuation |
|
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
||||
|
Market cap |
7,960 |
|
|
|
|
|
Russian Steel |
|
11.3 |
11.3 |
11.3 |
11.3 |
EV/EBITDA |
|
5.1 |
4.2 |
|
|
4.5 |
|
|
4.8 |
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ND + MI |
-287 |
|
|
|
|
|
Turkey |
|
0.9 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
P/E |
|
8.7 |
|
7.4 |
|
|
8.2 |
|
|
9.2 |
|
||
|
EV |
7,673 |
|
|
|
|
|
Total steel |
|
12.3 |
12.3 |
12.3 |
12.3 |
P/B |
|
1.9 |
1.8 |
|
|
1.7 |
|
|
1.7 |
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Coal division |
|
2.7 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Income statement |
17A |
|
|
18E |
19E |
20E |
|
Balance sheet |
|
17A |
18E |
19E |
20E |
Cash flow |
|
17A |
|
18E |
|
19E |
|
20E |
||||
|
Revenue |
7,546 |
|
7,832 |
7,257 |
6,998 |
|
Non-current assets |
|
5,007 |
5,202 |
5,369 |
5,512 |
Operating cash flow |
1,358 |
1,986 |
1,948 |
1,800 |
|||||||||
|
EBITDA |
1,999 |
2,410 |
2,251 |
2,098 |
|
Current assets |
|
2,917 |
2,702 |
2,420 |
2,236 |
CAPEX+M&A |
|
-662 |
-800 |
|
-800 |
|
-800 |
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Net income |
1,189 |
|
1,400 |
1,259 |
1,129 |
|
Total assets |
|
7,924 |
7,903 |
7,790 |
7,748 |
Investing cash flow |
-599 |
|
-780 |
|
-786 |
|
-785 |
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Financing cash flow |
-480 |
-1,158 -1,298 -1,150 |
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GDRs, mn |
860 |
|
|
860 |
860 |
860 |
|
Total equity |
|
5,497 |
5,889 |
5,999 |
6,128 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPGDR |
1.38 |
|
1.63 |
1.46 |
1.31 |
|
Non-current liabilities |
|
845 |
780 |
715 |
651 |
Net increase in cash |
279 |
48 |
|
|
-136 |
|
-135 |
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
DPGDR |
0.40 |
|
|
1.17 |
1.34 |
1.16 |
|
Current liabilities |
|
1,582 |
1,234 |
1,075 |
969 |
Cash at end |
|
556 |
|
604 |
|
468 |
|
333 |
|
|||
|
Payout ratio |
29% |
|
72% |
91% |
89% |
|
Total equity & liabilit |
|
7,924 |
7,903 |
7,790 |
7,748 |
Free cash flow |
|
696 |
1,186 |
1,148 |
1,000 |
||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
EBITDA margin |
26% |
|
|
31% |
31% |
30% |
|
LT debt |
|
234 |
169 |
104 |
40 |
OCF per GDR |
|
1.6 |
|
2.3 |
|
|
2.3 |
|
|
2.1 |
|
|
|
Net margin |
16% |
|
18% |
17% |
16% |
|
ST debt |
|
308 |
223 |
138 |
52 |
FCF per GDR |
|
0.8 |
1.4 |
|
|
1.3 |
|
|
1.2 |
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ROA |
16% |
|
|
18% |
16% |
15% |
|
Total debt |
|
542 |
392 |
242 |
92 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ROE |
23% |
|
25% |
21% |
19% |
|
Net debt |
|
-25 |
-223 |
-237 |
-252 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net debt to EBITDA |
|
0.0 |
-0.1 |
-0.1 |
-0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Источник: данные компании, Bloomberg, оценки АТОНа |
|||||||||||||
|
Рис. 163. Evraz: краткий обзор |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
Evraz |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices |
17A |
18E |
19E |
20E |
Valuation |
17A |
|
18E |
|
|
19E |
|
|
20E |
|
||||
|
Bloomberg ticker |
EVR LN |
|
|
|
Price |
4.82 |
HCC Australia benchmark |
187 |
200 |
150 |
130 |
EV/EBITDA |
4.9 |
|
3.7 |
|
|
4.0 |
|
|
4.3 |
|
||||
|
Shares, mn |
1,443.4 |
|
|
|
PO |
5.80 |
HRC Export Russia |
541 |
600 |
550 |
530 |
P/E |
11.4 |
|
4.2 |
|
|
4.6 |
|
|
5.0 |
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Last reported |
1H18 |
|
|
|
Upside |
20% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
P/B |
4.3 |
|
3.3 |
|
|
2.8 |
|
|
2.5 |
|
||
|
USD/GBP spot |
1.3 |
|
|
|
Rating HOLD |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FCF yield |
11% |
|
23% |
|
|
21% |
|
|
19% |
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dividend yield |
|
5% |
|
17% |
|
|
16% |
|
|
15% |
|
|
|
Market value |
$mn |
|
|
|
|
|
Sales, mt |
17A |
18E |
19E |
20E |
Target valuation |
17A |
|
18E |
|
|
19E |
|
|
20E |
|
||||
|
Market cap |
8,685 |
|
|
|
|
|
Steel Russia |
10.5 |
10.5 |
10.5 |
10.5 |
EV/EBITDA |
5.6 |
|
4.2 |
|
|
4.6 |
|
|
4.9 |
|
||||
|
Last reported ND |
3,884 |
|
|
|
|
|
Steel N.America |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
P/E |
13.8 |
|
5.0 |
|
|
5.6 |
|
|
6.0 |
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
Last reported MI |
261 |
|
|
|
|
|
Total steel |
12.4 |
12.3 |
12.3 |
12.3 |
P/B |
5.2 |
|
4.0 |
|
|
3.4 |
|
|
3.0 |
|
||||
|
EV |
12,830 |
|
|
|
|
|
Coal |
15.1 |
15.1 |
15.1 |
15.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
Income statement |
17A |
|
18E |
19E |
20E |
Balance sheet |
17A |
18E |
19E |
20E |
Cash flow |
17A |
|
18E |
|
|
19E |
|
|
20E |
|
|||||
|
Revenue |
10,827 11,801 11,045 10,812 |
Non-current assets |
6,551 |
6,670 |
6,770 |
6,853 |
Operating cash flow 1,957 |
3,015 |
|
2,719 |
|
2,562 |
|
|||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
EBITDA |
2,624 |
3,509 |
3,178 |
3,003 |
Current assets |
3,829 |
3,731 |
2,901 |
2,714 |
Capex+M&A |
-580 |
|
-700 |
|
|
-700 |
|
|
-700 |
|
||||||
|
Net income |
759 |
2,089 |
1,873 |
1,745 |
Total assets |
10,380 10,401 |
9,672 |
9,566 |
Investing cash flow |
-167 |
|
-686 |
|
|
-686 |
|
|
-686 |
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Shareholders' equity |
2,026 |
2,615 |
3,060 |
3,477 |
Financing cash flow |
-1,479 |
-2,248 |
-2,734 |
-2,030 |
|
|||||||||
|
Shares, mn |
1,443 |
1,443 |
1,443 |
1,443 |
Non-current liabilities |
6,239 |
4,780 |
3,808 |
3,419 |
Net increase in cash |
311 |
|
80 |
|
|
-700 |
|
|
-154 |
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
EPS |
0.5 |
|
1.4 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
Current liabilities |
2,115 |
3,006 |
2,804 |
2,671 |
Cash at end |
1,466 |
|
1,546 |
|
|
846 |
|
|
692 |
|
|||||
|
DPS |
0.3 |
|
1.0 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
Total equity & liabilit |
10,380 10,401 |
9,672 |
9,566 |
Free cash flow |
940 |
|
1,999 |
|
1,785 |
|
1,660 |
|
||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Payout ratio |
57% |
|
72% |
76% |
76% |
LT debt |
5,243 |
3,784 |
2,812 |
2,423 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
EBITDA margin |
24% |
|
30% |
29% |
28% |
ST debt |
148 |
107 |
79 |
68 |
OCF per share |
1.4 |
|
2.1 |
|
|
1.9 |
|
|
1.8 |
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
Net margin |
7% |
|
18% |
17% |
16% |
Total debt |
5,391 |
3,891 |
2,891 |
2,491 |
FCF per share |
0.7 |
|
1.4 |
|
|
1.2 |
|
|
1.2 |
|
|||||
|
ROA |
8% |
|
20% |
19% |
18% |
Net debt |
3,925 |
2,345 |
2,045 |
1,799 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
ROE |
56% |
|
90% |
66% |
53% |
Net debt to EBITDA |
1.5 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Источник: данные компании, Bloomberg, оценки АТОНа |
© ООО «АТОН», 2018. Все права защищены.