- •THE BANK OF THE FUTURE
- •The ABCs of Digital Disruption in Finance
- •Contents
- •The Bank of the Future
- •A is for Artificial Intelligence and Automation
- •B Is for BigTech, Especially in Asia and Emerging Markets
- •C Is for Core Banking, Cloud, and Challengers
- •Where in the World?
- •Disruption by Product and Geography
- •Re-imaging versus Re-engineering Finance
- •Bank of the Future
- •Interview with Exponential View: Azeem Azhar
- •About Azeem Azhar
- •Evolution of AI – Why Now?
- •Industrialization of AI – Spending and Investing More
- •Banking & Securities Is the Largest Non-Tech Industry for AI
- •Interview with Citi Ventures: Ramneek Gupta
- •About Citi Ventures
- •About Ramneek Gupta
- •AI-driven Applications in Banking
- •Use Cases in Consumer Banking
- •Interview with Active.Ai: Ravi Shankar
- •About Active.AI
- •About Ravi Shankar
- •Use Cases in Commercial Banking
- •Use Cases in Capital Markets Banking
- •Interview with Behavox: Erkin Adylov
- •About Behavox
- •About Erkin Adylov
- •AI Enables FTE Reduction, Optimizes Distribution
- •Chinese BigTech and Financial Services
- •[A] Ant Financial Builds an Empire of Services
- •[B] Tencent's WeChat Is China's App for Everything
- •Interview with Kapronasia: Zennon Kapron
- •About Kapronasia
- •About Zennon Kapron
- •China and India on Different FinTech Paths
- •India on the Frontline of Digital Finance
- •India's Transformation Towards Digital
- •Google's m-wallet (Tez) Sees Early Success
- •New RBI Directive Could Threaten Digital Payments
- •About Aditya Menon
- •GAFAs at the Gate with PSD2; But Do Bank Clients Care?
- •What is PSD2?
- •The New Banking Model under PSD2
- •U.K.'s Open Banking Standard
- •Impact of PSD 2/Open Banking on Banks – Risk of Disintermediation?
- •Chapter C: Core Banking, Cloud and Challengers
- •Challenge of Legacy Core Banking Systems
- •Banks Face Multiple Pain Points
- •Do Banks Need To Update Core Systems?
- •IT Change: Incumbents, Neobanks and Vendors’ Views
- •[A] The Incumbent Banks’ View
- •[B] The Neobanks’ View
- •Case Study: Leveris Banking Core
- •Journey to the Cloud
- •Cloud Ecosystem – The Vision for Hardware, Applications and Data
- •There Are Many Different Ways to Move Applications to the Cloud…
- •Some Application Workloads Are Easier to Move to Cloud than Others
- •And Core Banking Applications Are the Hardest to Address
- •Interview with Ping An: Jonathan Larsen
- •About Jonathan Larsen
- •Chapter D: Digital Assets
- •Bitcoin, Blockchain and All Things Crypto
- •Internet vs. Blockchain Financial Value Capture
- •2017: The Year of Crypto
- •Who is Buying Bitcoins?
- •2018: The Year of Second-Layer Protocols?
- •About PwC – FinTech and RegTech Team
- •About Henri Arslanian
- •Blockchain Applications
- •A.] The Power of Smart Contracts
- •B.] KYC-Chain and Digital Identity
- •C.] Reg-Tech
- •D.] ICOs – A Risky New Paradigm?
- •Regulatory approach to ICOs differ significantly across countries
- •Regulatory Approaches to Bitcoin
- •About King & Wood Mallesons
- •About Urszula McCormack
- •What is Ripple? How is it Different?
- •Ripple XRP – The Cryptocurrency
- •Banks and the Ripple Protocol
- •How Are Central Bank Cryptocurrencies Different
- •What Are Central Bankers Saying on CBCCs?
- •Epilogue: Emerging Market BRATs beyond China and India
- •Introducing the BRATs
- •A.] Share Unique Banking Sector Characteristics
- •B.] Favorable Demographics
- •C.] Technology Enablers
- •FinTech Investments Trends
- •About Vostok Emerging Finance
- •About David Nangle
- •NOW / NEXT
- •Contents
- •Investment summary
- •Reporting schedule
- •Earnings revisions
- •Reporting trends: 2H18E vs 2H17
- •Reporting trends 2H18E vs 1H18
- •Results previews
- •Commodity price and exchange rate forecasts
- •Peer comp charts
- •African Rainbow Minerals
- •Alrosa
- •Anglo American
- •Assore
- •Exxaro
- •Glencore
- •Kumba Iron ore
- •NorNickel
- •Rio Tinto
- •Rusal
- •Vale
- •Gold Fields
- •Harmony
- •Polymetal
- •Anglo American Platinum
- •Lonmin
- •Northam
- •Royal Bafokeng Platinum
- •Acron
- •PhosAgro
- •Evraz
- •Disclosures appendix
vk.com/id446425943
Peer comp charts
Renaissance Capital
6 February 2019
Metals & Mining
Figure 74: Companies ranked by CY19E EBITDA margins compared with their historical averages
80% |
|
67% |
|
|
|
|
|
||
70% |
|
|
|
|
|
54% |
54% |
52% |
|
60% |
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
50% |
|
|
|
|
40% |
|
|
|
|
30% |
|
|
|
|
20% |
|
|
|
|
10% |
|
|
|
|
0% |
|
Polyus Gold Fields |
BHP |
Norilsk |
|
||||
|
|
*Proportionately consolidated.
**Excluding marketing business.
51% |
50% |
49% |
49% |
47% |
45% |
44% |
38% |
38% |
|
CY19E EBITDA margins |
|
|
LT average |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||
36% |
36% |
35% |
35% |
35% |
32% |
32% |
30% |
29% |
29% |
29% |
29% |
27% |
27% |
25% |
24% |
23% |
20% |
19% |
18% |
17% |
14% |
8% |
3% |
|||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sector average, 34% |
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Polymetal |
Fortescue |
Alrosa |
Kumba |
Vale |
AngloGold |
Rio Tinto |
Russian* |
Assore* |
|
Exxaro* |
ARM* |
Harmony |
PhosAgro |
Anglo |
Others* |
Severstal |
Sasol |
Glencore** |
South32 |
Evraz |
RBPlats |
Sibanye |
NLMK |
Northam |
Amplats |
Mondi |
Merafe |
MMK |
Impala |
Rusal |
Sappi |
Hulamin |
AMSA |
Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates
Figure 75: Companies ranked by CY19E FCF yield compared with
30% |
24.0% |
23.4% |
20.5% |
16.4% |
15.0% |
14.4% |
13.5% |
13.4% |
13.2% |
12.8% |
12.5% |
12.4% |
12.4% |
12.4% |
|
25% |
|||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
20% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
15% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-10% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-15% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-20%
Hulamin |
ARM |
Merafe |
Rusal |
Harmony |
Exxaro |
Fortescue |
AngloGold |
Alrosa |
Kumba |
Anglo |
NLMK |
Assore |
Evraz |
Note: Priced at market close on 1 February 2019.
their historical averages |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
|
CY19E FCF yield |
|
|
|
|
LT average |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
12.4% |
11.0% |
10.4% |
10.3% |
10.2% |
9.8% |
9.4% |
9.4% |
9.3% |
9.2% |
9.1% |
8.4% |
7.6% |
7.2% |
5.9% |
5.9% |
5.4% |
5.3% |
5.1% |
4.8% |
3.5% |
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sector average, 9.4% |
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-6.0% |
-10.0% |
-10.5% |
|
Gold Fields |
BHP |
Polyus |
Russian* |
PhosAgro |
South32 |
Rio Tinto |
Impala |
Polymetal |
Sibanye |
Others* |
Vale |
Glencore |
MMK |
Severstal |
Mondi |
Norilsk |
Amplats |
Northam |
Sasol |
Sappi Lonmin |
RBPlats |
AMSA |
Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates
Figure 76: Miners ranked by CY19E dividend yield compared with their historical averages
16% |
14.9% |
14.2% |
12.6% |
12.3% |
11.7% |
11.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0% |
|
Merafe |
Evraz |
Alrosa |
NLMK |
Severstal |
Kumba |
|
|||||||
|
|
Note: Priced at market close on 1 February 2019.
10.4% |
10.3% |
9.5% |
9.4% |
9.0% |
8.9% |
8.4% |
|
|
|
CY19E Dividend yield |
|
|
LT average |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
8.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||||||
7.5% |
6.8% |
6.6% |
6.3% |
6.2% |
6.1% |
5.9% |
5.2% |
5.1% |
5.0% |
4.6% |
4.0% |
4.0% |
3.8% |
3.1% |
1.9% |
1.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sector average, 6% |
|
|||||
Exxaro |
Norilsk |
ARM |
Russian* |
Fortescue |
Hulamin |
PhosAgro |
Assore |
BHP |
MMK |
Polymetal |
|
|
|
|
Polyus |
|
Rusal |
Others* |
Sasol |
Sappi |
Mondi |
|
Gold… |
Amplats |
AngloGold |
Vale |
Impala |
Northam |
|
|
|
|
||
South32 |
Glencore |
Rio Tinto |
Anglo |
Harmony |
RBPlats |
Sibanye |
AMSA |
Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates
http://new.guap.ru/i04/contacts |
43 |
|