- •THE BANK OF THE FUTURE
- •The ABCs of Digital Disruption in Finance
- •Contents
- •The Bank of the Future
- •A is for Artificial Intelligence and Automation
- •B Is for BigTech, Especially in Asia and Emerging Markets
- •C Is for Core Banking, Cloud, and Challengers
- •Where in the World?
- •Disruption by Product and Geography
- •Re-imaging versus Re-engineering Finance
- •Bank of the Future
- •Interview with Exponential View: Azeem Azhar
- •About Azeem Azhar
- •Evolution of AI – Why Now?
- •Industrialization of AI – Spending and Investing More
- •Banking & Securities Is the Largest Non-Tech Industry for AI
- •Interview with Citi Ventures: Ramneek Gupta
- •About Citi Ventures
- •About Ramneek Gupta
- •AI-driven Applications in Banking
- •Use Cases in Consumer Banking
- •Interview with Active.Ai: Ravi Shankar
- •About Active.AI
- •About Ravi Shankar
- •Use Cases in Commercial Banking
- •Use Cases in Capital Markets Banking
- •Interview with Behavox: Erkin Adylov
- •About Behavox
- •About Erkin Adylov
- •AI Enables FTE Reduction, Optimizes Distribution
- •Chinese BigTech and Financial Services
- •[A] Ant Financial Builds an Empire of Services
- •[B] Tencent's WeChat Is China's App for Everything
- •Interview with Kapronasia: Zennon Kapron
- •About Kapronasia
- •About Zennon Kapron
- •China and India on Different FinTech Paths
- •India on the Frontline of Digital Finance
- •India's Transformation Towards Digital
- •Google's m-wallet (Tez) Sees Early Success
- •New RBI Directive Could Threaten Digital Payments
- •About Aditya Menon
- •GAFAs at the Gate with PSD2; But Do Bank Clients Care?
- •What is PSD2?
- •The New Banking Model under PSD2
- •U.K.'s Open Banking Standard
- •Impact of PSD 2/Open Banking on Banks – Risk of Disintermediation?
- •Chapter C: Core Banking, Cloud and Challengers
- •Challenge of Legacy Core Banking Systems
- •Banks Face Multiple Pain Points
- •Do Banks Need To Update Core Systems?
- •IT Change: Incumbents, Neobanks and Vendors’ Views
- •[A] The Incumbent Banks’ View
- •[B] The Neobanks’ View
- •Case Study: Leveris Banking Core
- •Journey to the Cloud
- •Cloud Ecosystem – The Vision for Hardware, Applications and Data
- •There Are Many Different Ways to Move Applications to the Cloud…
- •Some Application Workloads Are Easier to Move to Cloud than Others
- •And Core Banking Applications Are the Hardest to Address
- •Interview with Ping An: Jonathan Larsen
- •About Jonathan Larsen
- •Chapter D: Digital Assets
- •Bitcoin, Blockchain and All Things Crypto
- •Internet vs. Blockchain Financial Value Capture
- •2017: The Year of Crypto
- •Who is Buying Bitcoins?
- •2018: The Year of Second-Layer Protocols?
- •About PwC – FinTech and RegTech Team
- •About Henri Arslanian
- •Blockchain Applications
- •A.] The Power of Smart Contracts
- •B.] KYC-Chain and Digital Identity
- •C.] Reg-Tech
- •D.] ICOs – A Risky New Paradigm?
- •Regulatory approach to ICOs differ significantly across countries
- •Regulatory Approaches to Bitcoin
- •About King & Wood Mallesons
- •About Urszula McCormack
- •What is Ripple? How is it Different?
- •Ripple XRP – The Cryptocurrency
- •Banks and the Ripple Protocol
- •How Are Central Bank Cryptocurrencies Different
- •What Are Central Bankers Saying on CBCCs?
- •Epilogue: Emerging Market BRATs beyond China and India
- •Introducing the BRATs
- •A.] Share Unique Banking Sector Characteristics
- •B.] Favorable Demographics
- •C.] Technology Enablers
- •FinTech Investments Trends
- •About Vostok Emerging Finance
- •About David Nangle
- •NOW / NEXT
- •Contents
- •Investment summary
- •Reporting schedule
- •Earnings revisions
- •Reporting trends: 2H18E vs 2H17
- •Reporting trends 2H18E vs 1H18
- •Results previews
- •Commodity price and exchange rate forecasts
- •Peer comp charts
- •African Rainbow Minerals
- •Alrosa
- •Anglo American
- •Assore
- •Exxaro
- •Glencore
- •Kumba Iron ore
- •NorNickel
- •Rio Tinto
- •Rusal
- •Vale
- •Gold Fields
- •Harmony
- •Polymetal
- •Anglo American Platinum
- •Lonmin
- •Northam
- •Royal Bafokeng Platinum
- •Acron
- •PhosAgro
- •Evraz
- •Disclosures appendix
vk.com/id446425943
Earnings revisions
Figures 4 and 5 summarise the changes to our earnings forecasts, as we incorporate financial and production results and updated guidance recently announced.
Figure 4: Earnings for December year-ends
Dec-YE |
2018E |
2019E |
2020E |
2021E |
2022E |
Acron – basic EPS forecasts, RUB |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
350 |
571 |
666 |
617 |
544 |
Old |
348 |
571 |
666 |
617 |
544 |
% change |
1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
394 |
484 |
534 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
-11% |
18% |
25% |
|
|
Alrosa – adjusted EPS forecasts, RUB |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
14.07 |
13.13 |
14.48 |
14.09 |
13.95 |
Old |
14.12 |
15.08 |
15.88 |
14.49 |
14.42 |
% change |
0% |
-13% |
-9% |
-3% |
-3% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
14.22 |
15.41 |
16.24 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
-1% |
-15% |
-11% |
|
|
Anglo American Platinum – HEPS forecasts, ZAc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
3,089 |
3,926 |
4,400 |
4,413 |
4,440 |
Old |
3,018 |
4,037 |
4,412 |
4,424 |
4,452 |
% change |
2% |
-3% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
2,648 |
3,202 |
3,587 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
17% |
23% |
23% |
|
|
Glencore – underlying EPS forecasts, USc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
45 |
33 |
49 |
46 |
49 |
Old |
48 |
39 |
42 |
46 |
47 |
% change |
-6% |
-15% |
17% |
0% |
4% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
42 |
39 |
49 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
8% |
-15% |
0% |
|
|
NorNickel – underlying EPS forecasts, USc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
215 |
209 |
222 |
206 |
203 |
Old |
212 |
209 |
222 |
205 |
203 |
% change |
1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
239 |
255 |
270 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
-10% |
-18% |
-18% |
|
|
Polymetal – underlying EPS forecasts, USc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
98 |
147 |
149 |
139 |
153 |
Old |
94 |
147 |
149 |
139 |
153 |
% change |
4% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
88 |
108 |
121 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
11% |
36% |
23% |
|
|
Polyus – underlying EPS forecasts, USc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
994 |
1,206 |
1,176 |
1,159 |
1,186 |
Old |
981 |
1,205 |
1,176 |
1,158 |
1,185 |
% change |
1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
964 |
1,040 |
1,120 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
3% |
16% |
5% |
|
|
Note: Priced at market close on 1 February 2019.
Source: Thomson Reuters, Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates
Figure 5: Earnings for June year-ends
Jun-YE |
2019E |
2020E |
2021E |
2022E |
2023E |
BHP – underlying EPS forecasts, USc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
177 |
179 |
154 |
167 |
177 |
Old |
183 |
179 |
154 |
167 |
177 |
% change |
-3% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
183 |
183 |
173 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
-3% |
-2% |
-11% |
|
|
Fortescue – underlying EPS forecasts, USc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
48 |
54 |
35 |
33 |
32 |
Old |
44 |
54 |
34 |
32 |
31 |
% change |
8% |
1% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
42 |
39 |
33 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
14% |
38% |
6% |
|
|
South32 – underlying EPS forecasts, USc |
|
|
|
|
|
New |
22.3 |
19.9 |
19.9 |
20.0 |
20.5 |
Old |
23.8 |
19.7 |
19.9 |
20.0 |
20.5 |
% change |
-6% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Thomson Reuters consensus |
24.2 |
24.3 |
23.1 |
|
|
RenCap compared with consensus |
-8% |
-18% |
-14% |
|
|
Note: Priced at market close on 1 February 2019.
Source: Thomson Reuters, Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates
Renaissance Capital
6 February 2019
Metals & Mining
http://new.guap.ru/i04/contacts |
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