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Экономика инновационной деятельности предприятия = Economics of innovative activity of enterprise. Учебное пособие

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Quantitative methods of innovative projects efficiency evaluation:
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1.Net present value, NPV
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2. Profitability Index, PI
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3. Internal rate of return, IRR
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4. Payback Period, DPBP
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RQWKHEDVLVRIH[LVWLQJHTXLSPHQW $YHUDJH ,QFUHDVHGVDOHVRIH[LVWLQJSURGXFWV  +LJK 3URGXFWLRQDQGPDUNHWLQJRIDQHZSURGXFW  9HU\KLJK ,QYHVWPHQWVLQUHVHDUFKDQGLQQRYDWLRQ 
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Capital assets pricing model (CAPM) LV EDVHG RQ WKH DQDO\VLV RI WKH
SURILWDELOLW\ RI FRPSDQLHV RI D VLPLODU PDUNHWVHJPHQW 7KHUH WKHULVN SUHPLXP
FDSWXUHV WKH GHJUHH RI IOXFWXDWLRQV RI VWRFN UHWXUQV RI VLPLODU FRPSDQLHV LQ
FRPSDULVRQZLWKWKHPDUNHWDYHUDJH7KHSUDFWLFDOXVHRIWKLVPHWKRGLQ5XVVLDLV
GLIILFXOWGXH WRORZDFWLYLW\RI WKH VWRFN PDUNHW DQG LW LV XVHG LQ SUDFWLFH RQO\ IRU
HYDOXDWLRQRIPDMRUSURMHFWV
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) LV WKH PRVW SRSXODU PHWKRG IRU
FDOFXODWLRQRI GLVFRXQWUDWH IRUSURMHFWV LQH[LVWLQJ HQWHUSULVHV7KH GLVFRXQWUDWH
WKHUHLVHTXDOWRWKHZHLJKWHGDYHUDJHFRVWRIFDSLWDOIRUWKHFRPSDQ\
$FFRXQWLQJ IRU ULVNV E\ DGMXVWLQJ WKH GLVFRXQW UDWH LV WKH PRVW SRSXODU
PHWKRGEXWLWKDVVKRUWFRPLQJV,QSUDFWLFHWKHUHDUHPDQ\GLIIHUHQWULVNVDQGLWLV
QRW SRVVLEOH DGHTXDWHO\ LQFRUSRUDWH WKHP DOO LQ WKH ULVN SUHPLXP7KHUHIRUH WKH
SHUIRUPHGFDOFXODWLRQVUHTXLUHIXUWKHUDQDO\VLV
Sensitivity analysis
)RUVHQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VLVLQWKHSURMHFWILQDQFLDOPRGHOZHFKDQJHWKHYDOXHRI
WKH UHOHYDQW SDUDPHWHUV DQG HYDOXDWH WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ FKDQJH LQ SHUIRUPDQFH
LQGLFDWRUV1393,,558VXDOO\ZHHYDOXDWHWKHHIIHFWRIWKHIROORZLQJIDFWRUV
x GLVFRXQWUDWHIRUWKHSURMHFW
x IL[HGDQGYDULDEOHFRVWV
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x YROXPHRISURGXFWLRQDQGVDOHV
x VHOOLQJSULFHRIWKHSURGXFW
x LQYHVWPHQWFRVWVIRUWKHSURMHFW
x H[SHQVHVRQSHUVRQQHO
6HQVLWLYLW\LVWKHUDWLRRIWKHFKDQJHRIRQHRIWKHSHUIRUPDQFHLQGLFDWRUVWR
WKHFKDQJHRI LQIOXHQFLQJIDFWRU +LJKVHQVLWLYLW\PHDQV WKDW WKHIDFWRUZLWKKLJK
VHQVLWLYLW\LV DQLPSRUWDQW IDFWRUIRU WKHSURMHFW DQG UHTXLUHVVSHFLDO PHDVXUHVWR
FRQWUROIRUWKHULVN
)RU WKH PRVW LPSRUWDQW IDFWRUV WKHCost-Volume-Profit analysis WRILQG WKH
breakeven point LVSHUIRUPHG 7KLV PHWKRGDOORZVXV WR ILQGWKHFULWLFDO YDOXHRI
UHOHYDQWSDUDPHWHU DW ZKLFK WKH SURMHFW EHFRPHV XQSURILWDEOH8VXDOO\ ZHILQG D
PLQLPXP YROXPH RI VDOHVDW ZKLFK WKH 139 RIWKH SURMHFW YDQLVKHV WR  ,I WKH
GLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQH[SHFWHGYROXPHRIVDOHVDQGWKHEUHDNHYHQSRLQWLVOHVVWKDQ
WKHQWKHSURMHFWLVFRQVLGHUHGWRRULVN\
The method of scenarios
7KH PHWKRG RI VFHQDULRV DOORZV VWXG\LQJ WKH VHQVLWLYLW\ RI WKH UHVXOWLQJ
LQGLFDWRUV WR YDULDWLRQ RI D VHW RI H[RJHQRXV SDUDPHWHUV 7KH DOJRULWKP RI
LQYHVWPHQWULVNVDQDO\VLVE\WKLVPHWKRGLVWKHIROORZLQJ
 'HWHUPLQH VHYHUDO RSWLRQV RI FKDQJHV LQ UHOHYDQW LQGLFDWRUV WKH
SHVVLPLVWLFWKHPRVWSUREDEOHDQGWKHRSWLPLVWLFYDULDQWV
([SHUWVDVVHVVWKHSUREDELOLW\RIHDFKRSWLRQRISDUDPHWHUFKDQJH
)RUHDFKRSWLRQWKHH[SHFWHGYDOXHRIWKH139LVFRPSXWHG
7KLV ZD\ \RX FDQ IRUHFDVW WKH UHVXOW RI WKH QHJDWLYH LPSDFW RI WKH VHW RI
LQIOXHQFLQJIDFWRUV
7KHPHWKRGRIVFHQDULRVLVYHU\WLPHFRQVXPLQJDQGLWLVXVHGRQO\IRUODUJH
H[SHQVLYH SURMHFWV ZLWK PDQ\ GLIIHUHQW ULVNV /DUJH QXPEHU RI VFHQDULRV DOORZV
FRQVWUXFWLQJWKHSUREDELOLW\±SURILWDELOLW\GLDJUDPDQGXVLQJLWIRUULVNDVVHVVPHQW
)RUVLPSOHSURMHFWVRQO\SHVVLPLVWLFVFHQDULRVZKLFKZLOOVKRZWRLQYHVWRUKLV
SRVVLEOHORVVHVDUHDQDO\]HG
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