- •Abstract
- •1. Introduction
- •1.1. Background
- •1.2. Problem and research questions
- •1.3. Aim and Limitation
- •1.4. Outline of thesis
- •1.5. Abbreviation and definition
- •Irr Internal Rate of Return
- •2. Method
- •2.1. Approach
- •2.2. Data collection method
- •2.3. Primary data
- •2.4. Secondary data
- •2.5. Data processing
- •2.6. Validity, reliability and generalization
- •3. Theories
- •3.1. Principal-Agent Problems
- •3.2. Wacc and opportunity cost of capital
- •3.3. Capm and apt
- •3.4. Estimating β
- •3.4.1. Operating leverage and β
- •3.5. The risk and discount rates for international projects
- •3.6. Purposes of performance measurement
- •3.6.1. Eva, Book roi, and ep
- •3.7. Working capital, depreciation and tax
- •4. Own research
- •4.1. Review of pharmaceutical market in Russia
- •3.1.1. Russian companies and them place in market
- •3.1.2. Pharmaceutical company “Zdorovie Ludi”
- •3.2. Research strategy (Roadmap of decision)
- •3.3. International and European contracts
- •3.4. National contracting in a global economy
- •3.5. National contract low and human rights
- •3.6. (Step 1) Juristic analyses and common mistakes of the contract
- •3.6.1. The formation and scope of a contract:
- •3.6.2. The content of a contract:
- •3.6.3. Policing a contract:
- •3.6.4. Performance, discharge and breach of the contract:
- •3.7. (Step 2) Controlling of strategy and consideration the contract as investment project
- •3.8. Transformation the contract to the invest project
- •Risk of delivery (for buyer)
- •Techniques of payment (risk for buyer)
- •3.9. (Step3) Forecast of outflow and inflow
- •3.10. (Step 4) Determination the risk and discount rate
- •3.10.1. Country risk analysis
- •3.11. Commercial counterparty risk analysis
- •3.12. (Step 5) Procedure of estimation and comparison of the contract
- •3.13. Book Rate of Return (Advantages and disadvantages)
- •3.14. Payback Period and Discounted-Payback Period (Advantages and disadvantages)
- •3.15. Internal (or discounted-cash-flow) rate of return (irr) and mirr (Advantages and disadvantages)
- •3.15.1. Lending or borrowing position
- •3.15.2. Multiple rates of returns
- •3.15.3. Mutually exclusive projects
- •3.16. The cost of capital for near-term and distant cash flows
- •3.17. Profitability Index (pi, advantages and disadvantages)
- •3.18. Net Present Value (npv, advantages and disadvantages)
- •3.18.1 Calculate npv with glance of inflation
- •3.18.2 Calculating npv in other countries and currencies
- •3.19. (Step 6) Performance and agency problems
- •4. Results
- •4.1. Simulation model analysis and calculation
- •4.2.1. Wacc as discount rate
- •4.2.2. Manager’s working capital use penalty points
- •4.2.3. Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate (radr) and ceq
- •4.3. Summary of Simulation model analysis
- •4.4. Scenario analysis and calculation
- •4.4.1. Discount rates that based on wacc
- •4.4.2. Discount rates that based on radr
- •4.5. Summary of scenario analysis
- •4.6. Final analysis and Decision Card (Step 7)
- •Decision Card
- •4.7. What could be improved and suggestion for future research.
- •Conclusion
- •References
- •Appendix 1 – 7 (Simulation Model and Scenario analysis calculation) (Excel) Appendix 1 (Excel)
- •Appendix 2 (Excel)
- •Appendix 3 (Excel)
- •Appendix 4 (Excel)
- •Appendix 5 (Excel)
- •Appendix 6 (Excel)
- •Appendix 7 (Excel)
- •Appendix 8 (Interview questions and structure of survey) part 1
- •A) Survey for managers
- •B) Survey for specialist
- •Part 2 Survey of experts
- •Part 3 Results and Conclusion a) Survey for managers
- •Conclusion
- •B) Survey for specialist
- •Conclusion
- •C) Survey of experts
Appendix 6 (Excel)
Period |
CF |
IRR |
CF |
IRR |
CF |
IRR |
0 |
-300 |
11,35% |
-90 |
13,15% |
-30 |
20,35% |
1 |
-15 |
|
-225 |
|
-315 |
|
2 |
-45 |
NPV |
-45 |
NPV |
90 |
NPV |
3 |
90 |
227,93338168р. |
90 |
228,07609704р. |
140 |
243,46580352р. |
4 |
140 |
|
140 |
|
150 |
|
5 |
150 |
|
150 |
|
130 |
|
6 |
130 |
|
130 |
|
80 |
|
7 |
80 |
|
80 |
|
|
|
|
|
discount rate |
discount rate (360) |
|
|
|
|
|
0,244988 |
0,000680522 |
|
|
|
|
|
Contract I |
|
Contract II |
|
Contract III |
|
PI |
0,633148282 |
|
0,63354471р. |
|
0,70569798р. |
Appendix 7 (Excel)
Period |
CF |
IRR |
CF |
IRR |
CF |
IRR |
0 |
-300 |
11,35% |
-90 |
13,15% |
-30 |
20,35% |
1 |
-15 |
|
-225 |
|
-315 |
|
2 |
-45 |
NPV |
-45 |
NPV |
90 |
NPV |
3 |
90 |
227,89298511р. |
90 |
228,03849394р. |
140 |
243,43580728р. |
4 |
140 |
|
140 |
|
150 |
|
5 |
150 |
|
150 |
|
130 |
|
6 |
130 |
|
130 |
|
80 |
|
7 |
80 |
|
80 |
|
|
|
|
|
discount rate |
discount rate (360) |
|
|
|
|
|
0,24979 |
0,000693861 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Contract I |
|
Contract II |
|
Contract III |
|
PI |
0,63303607р. |
|
0,63344026р. |
|
0,70561104р. |
Appendix 8 (Interview questions and structure of survey) part 1
The purpose of interview in the Part 1 to estimate level of using the indicators which are use the decision makers. The part 2 of interview provide reliable as it passable level of discounted rates.