- •Abstract
- •1. Introduction
- •1.1. Background
- •1.2. Problem and research questions
- •1.3. Aim and Limitation
- •1.4. Outline of thesis
- •1.5. Abbreviation and definition
- •Irr Internal Rate of Return
- •2. Method
- •2.1. Approach
- •2.2. Data collection method
- •2.3. Primary data
- •2.4. Secondary data
- •2.5. Data processing
- •2.6. Validity, reliability and generalization
- •3. Theories
- •3.1. Principal-Agent Problems
- •3.2. Wacc and opportunity cost of capital
- •3.3. Capm and apt
- •3.4. Estimating β
- •3.4.1. Operating leverage and β
- •3.5. The risk and discount rates for international projects
- •3.6. Purposes of performance measurement
- •3.6.1. Eva, Book roi, and ep
- •3.7. Working capital, depreciation and tax
- •4. Own research
- •4.1. Review of pharmaceutical market in Russia
- •3.1.1. Russian companies and them place in market
- •3.1.2. Pharmaceutical company “Zdorovie Ludi”
- •3.2. Research strategy (Roadmap of decision)
- •3.3. International and European contracts
- •3.4. National contracting in a global economy
- •3.5. National contract low and human rights
- •3.6. (Step 1) Juristic analyses and common mistakes of the contract
- •3.6.1. The formation and scope of a contract:
- •3.6.2. The content of a contract:
- •3.6.3. Policing a contract:
- •3.6.4. Performance, discharge and breach of the contract:
- •3.7. (Step 2) Controlling of strategy and consideration the contract as investment project
- •3.8. Transformation the contract to the invest project
- •Risk of delivery (for buyer)
- •Techniques of payment (risk for buyer)
- •3.9. (Step3) Forecast of outflow and inflow
- •3.10. (Step 4) Determination the risk and discount rate
- •3.10.1. Country risk analysis
- •3.11. Commercial counterparty risk analysis
- •3.12. (Step 5) Procedure of estimation and comparison of the contract
- •3.13. Book Rate of Return (Advantages and disadvantages)
- •3.14. Payback Period and Discounted-Payback Period (Advantages and disadvantages)
- •3.15. Internal (or discounted-cash-flow) rate of return (irr) and mirr (Advantages and disadvantages)
- •3.15.1. Lending or borrowing position
- •3.15.2. Multiple rates of returns
- •3.15.3. Mutually exclusive projects
- •3.16. The cost of capital for near-term and distant cash flows
- •3.17. Profitability Index (pi, advantages and disadvantages)
- •3.18. Net Present Value (npv, advantages and disadvantages)
- •3.18.1 Calculate npv with glance of inflation
- •3.18.2 Calculating npv in other countries and currencies
- •3.19. (Step 6) Performance and agency problems
- •4. Results
- •4.1. Simulation model analysis and calculation
- •4.2.1. Wacc as discount rate
- •4.2.2. Manager’s working capital use penalty points
- •4.2.3. Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate (radr) and ceq
- •4.3. Summary of Simulation model analysis
- •4.4. Scenario analysis and calculation
- •4.4.1. Discount rates that based on wacc
- •4.4.2. Discount rates that based on radr
- •4.5. Summary of scenario analysis
- •4.6. Final analysis and Decision Card (Step 7)
- •Decision Card
- •4.7. What could be improved and suggestion for future research.
- •Conclusion
- •References
- •Appendix 1 – 7 (Simulation Model and Scenario analysis calculation) (Excel) Appendix 1 (Excel)
- •Appendix 2 (Excel)
- •Appendix 3 (Excel)
- •Appendix 4 (Excel)
- •Appendix 5 (Excel)
- •Appendix 6 (Excel)
- •Appendix 7 (Excel)
- •Appendix 8 (Interview questions and structure of survey) part 1
- •A) Survey for managers
- •B) Survey for specialist
- •Part 2 Survey of experts
- •Part 3 Results and Conclusion a) Survey for managers
- •Conclusion
- •B) Survey for specialist
- •Conclusion
- •C) Survey of experts
3.7. (Step 2) Controlling of strategy and consideration the contract as investment project
The Step 2 means that managements try to predict and mitigates all risks of company. The company starts to design strategy and the first problem is handling all levels of risks. They are main risks: global risks, country risks (including f/x), bank system risk, industry risks, extraordinary risks, corporate risks, and corporate financial risks. The main risks of company depend on business environment and finance technique which was chosen by the company. For example this is the Analysis business risk – Porter Model.
Figure 2.110
The very interesting method of analysis business environment used to American company GE, Motorola, and other top it is named “Six Sigma”. Six Sigma: A comprehensive and flexible system for achieving, sustaining and maximizing business success. Six Sigma is uniquely driven by close understanding of customer needs, disciplined use of facts, data, and statistical analysis, and diligent attention to managing, improving, and reinvesting business processes.
The Six Sigma Roadmap
Figure 2.211
3.8. Transformation the contract to the invest project
The main cross-border strategy of company is controlled by options of cross-border contract. The first remarkable options of contract are the delivery terms. The transformation of contract I am starting with delivery terms.
Risk of delivery (for buyer)
|
TERMS |
RISK WEIGHTING OF BUYER |
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|
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1. |
CEXW |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
(0.9) |
MAXIMUM RISK |
2. |
CFCA |
0 |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
|
|
3. |
FAS |
0 |
0 |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
||
4. |
FOB |
0 |
0 |
0 |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
||
5. |
CFR |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
||
6. |
СIF |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
||
7. |
CPT |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
||
8. |
CIP |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
||
9. |
DAF |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
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10. |
DES |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
||
11. |
DEQ |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
+ |
+ |
+ |
||
12. |
DDU |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
+ |
+ |
||
13. |
DDP |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
+ |
(0.1) |
MINIMUM RISK |
Figure 2.3
Secondly transformation of the cross-border contract to invest project is techniques of payment or payment term of a contract. Techniques of payment are the main indicator of realization the strategy of company and it is strongly connecting with finance risks.